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![alshfaw Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::777152191425642496.png) Astro Zan [@alshfaw](/creator/twitter/alshfaw) on x 10.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-18 13:22:02 UTC

Powell will cut interest rates July 30th.
Waller's confirmed vote is a pre-annoucement.
It will be a cut to spare Powell legal ramifications. A plea deal of sorts.
BUT, the initial market response will be down, not up. It will be seen as a forced cut, or a response to underlying weakness. Powell's words will spook the market.
We have X trading days left to FOMC, the most plausible setup here:
1) $SPY goes to the 1929 resistance line target at $6360, about $XXX $SPY, but not in a straight line.
2) Post-Opex, a short period of weakness can take SPY back to $XXX.
3) The target must be hit by Friday next week, ahead of the FOMC week. So Monday FOMC week, it starts pricing in some policy change fears. 

That's the setup for the next X trading days.  

My expectation for today,  open strong and fade through the day. Red candle likely, given high open.

$VIX $QQQ


XXXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1946198780270817506/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[fomc](/topic/fomc)
[powell](/topic/powell)
[astro](/topic/astro)

[Post Link](https://x.com/alshfaw/status/1946198780270817506)