[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Ajay Bagga [@Ajay_Bagga](/creator/twitter/Ajay_Bagga) on x 264.8K followers Created: 2025-07-18 03:09:22 UTC The Big Question for Markets : How can the US Customs collect $XXX billion in enhanced Tariffs revenues And US CPI , though rising, still stay below X% And US Corporates deliver steady margins, steady profits, And US labour market not see mass layoffs on shrinking corporate margins And US retail consumption stay steady and upwards Question Two for Markets: Who is footing this $ XXX billion in X months, $ XX billion in Q2 , and expected to be $ XXX billion in XX months bill? Not US Consumer so far Not US Corporates in terms of reducing margins so far What is Happening then ? X. The fall in energy and services prices is helping keep US inflation low X. Foreign exporters have cut their pricing and absorbed a large part of the tariffs so far X. A lot of non-perishable goods were front loaded and preordered from December to March 2025, those inventories are now running down X. As foreign exporters absorb some of the tariffs via lower offered prices, their margins shrink, they pressurise their suppliers, who pressurise their suppliers...that deflation is evident across the world in the form of negative WPI/PPI.... Will this Sustain? As per estimates, the Tariff impact has been absorbed by various parties...Foreign suppliers, their supply chains ; US importers and their margins ; US consumers (2.9% core CPI in June ). Going ahead expect more pass through to US consumers as exporter margins reach loss making levels, as US importers are not able to absorb any more of the tariffs . Inflation will rise past X% in the next quarter. As de-inventorisation happens (running at around $XXX billion per month now ), more price decisions will need to be taken by Exporters/Importers/Retailers/ End Consumers. Will this $XXX billion tariff be a drag ultimately on the $XX trillion US consumer market or on the $ XXX trillion US goods import market? That is the Third Big Question. The answer is, yes it will. For now the impact is masked by absorption of these costs in supply chain margins. As pass throughs accelerate, expect demand to be impacted. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [inflation](/topic/inflation) [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [Post Link](https://x.com/Ajay_Bagga/status/1946044598293586242)
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Ajay Bagga @Ajay_Bagga on x 264.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-18 03:09:22 UTC
The Big Question for Markets : How can the US Customs collect $XXX billion in enhanced Tariffs revenues And US CPI , though rising, still stay below X% And US Corporates deliver steady margins, steady profits, And US labour market not see mass layoffs on shrinking corporate margins And US retail consumption stay steady and upwards Question Two for Markets: Who is footing this $ XXX billion in X months, $ XX billion in Q2 , and expected to be $ XXX billion in XX months bill? Not US Consumer so far Not US Corporates in terms of reducing margins so far What is Happening then ? X. The fall in energy and services prices is helping keep US inflation low X. Foreign exporters have cut their pricing and absorbed a large part of the tariffs so far X. A lot of non-perishable goods were front loaded and preordered from December to March 2025, those inventories are now running down X. As foreign exporters absorb some of the tariffs via lower offered prices, their margins shrink, they pressurise their suppliers, who pressurise their suppliers...that deflation is evident across the world in the form of negative WPI/PPI.... Will this Sustain? As per estimates, the Tariff impact has been absorbed by various parties...Foreign suppliers, their supply chains ; US importers and their margins ; US consumers (2.9% core CPI in June ). Going ahead expect more pass through to US consumers as exporter margins reach loss making levels, as US importers are not able to absorb any more of the tariffs . Inflation will rise past X% in the next quarter. As de-inventorisation happens (running at around $XXX billion per month now ), more price decisions will need to be taken by Exporters/Importers/Retailers/ End Consumers. Will this $XXX billion tariff be a drag ultimately on the $XX trillion US consumer market or on the $ XXX trillion US goods import market? That is the Third Big Question. The answer is, yes it will. For now the impact is masked by absorption of these costs in supply chain margins. As pass throughs accelerate, expect demand to be impacted.
XXXXXX engagements
