[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Aimen Dean [@AimenDean](/creator/twitter/AimenDean) on x 39.2K followers Created: 2025-07-17 16:45:36 UTC The Coming Storm: A Worst-Case Scenario for Southern Syria In the next X to XX days, a deeply troubling chain of events may begin to unfold - one that could plunge southern Syria into a spiral of tribal warfare and regional escalation. X. The Full Withdrawal Under pressure from both the Americans and the Turks, and seemingly to satisfy Israeli demands, the Syrian government has begun a full withdrawal of regular army and police forces from Suwayda province. Not a symbolic retreat - a complete one. Now, reports indicate that Damascus may extend this withdrawal to Daraa province, removing even heavy weaponry. This move, while externally framed as de-escalation, could unleash decades - if not centuries - of dormant tribal and sectarian feuds. X. Tribal Feuds Resurrected With the central state absent, the longstanding blood feuds between the Druze of Suwayda and the Bedouins of Hauran and Daraa will likely explode. These Bedouin clans: •Outnumber the Druze nearly X to X •Are more heavily armed •Are spread across Syria, Jordan, Iraq - and even into Saudi Arabia and Sinai These are not localized actors. They are kin-based networks. And they are angry. Many in Daraa hold Hikmat al-Hijri’s militias responsible for recent violence, accusing them of provoking clashes and summoning foreign intervention. For these tribes, revenge is not only expected - it is a duty. X. The Propaganda War In this environment, atrocities are guaranteed - on both sides. But media and international sympathy will not be distributed equally. •Druze casualties will be framed as genocide. •Bedouin casualties, no matter how egregious, will be minimized, erased, or dismissed as terrorism. The narrative imbalance will drive further resentment. It will also lay the groundwork for military escalation. X. The Israeli Dilemma What happens next? •Phase 1: Israeli air strikes in support of the Druze •Phase 2: Bedouin deaths and international condemnation •Phase 3: Ground incursions? Unlikely, but not impossible - especially if Druze enclaves face collapse And then? Welcome to Syria’s Quagmire XXX. One Israel may not be able to bomb its way out of. This might be the worst-case scenario. But in the Middle East today, the worst-case has a way of becoming the baseline. The next few days will reveal whether reason prevails - or whether we are about to watch another war erupt, one bomb, one tribal vendetta, one Israeli misstep at a time. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [events](/topic/events) [syria](/topic/syria) [Post Link](https://x.com/AimenDean/status/1945887620929843318)
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Aimen Dean @AimenDean on x 39.2K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 16:45:36 UTC
The Coming Storm: A Worst-Case Scenario for Southern Syria
In the next X to XX days, a deeply troubling chain of events may begin to unfold - one that could plunge southern Syria into a spiral of tribal warfare and regional escalation.
X. The Full Withdrawal
Under pressure from both the Americans and the Turks, and seemingly to satisfy Israeli demands, the Syrian government has begun a full withdrawal of regular army and police forces from Suwayda province. Not a symbolic retreat - a complete one. Now, reports indicate that Damascus may extend this withdrawal to Daraa province, removing even heavy weaponry.
This move, while externally framed as de-escalation, could unleash decades - if not centuries - of dormant tribal and sectarian feuds.
X. Tribal Feuds Resurrected
With the central state absent, the longstanding blood feuds between the Druze of Suwayda and the Bedouins of Hauran and Daraa will likely explode. These Bedouin clans: •Outnumber the Druze nearly X to X •Are more heavily armed •Are spread across Syria, Jordan, Iraq - and even into Saudi Arabia and Sinai
These are not localized actors. They are kin-based networks. And they are angry.
Many in Daraa hold Hikmat al-Hijri’s militias responsible for recent violence, accusing them of provoking clashes and summoning foreign intervention. For these tribes, revenge is not only expected - it is a duty.
X. The Propaganda War
In this environment, atrocities are guaranteed - on both sides. But media and international sympathy will not be distributed equally. •Druze casualties will be framed as genocide. •Bedouin casualties, no matter how egregious, will be minimized, erased, or dismissed as terrorism.
The narrative imbalance will drive further resentment. It will also lay the groundwork for military escalation.
X. The Israeli Dilemma
What happens next? •Phase 1: Israeli air strikes in support of the Druze •Phase 2: Bedouin deaths and international condemnation •Phase 3: Ground incursions? Unlikely, but not impossible - especially if Druze enclaves face collapse
And then? Welcome to Syria’s Quagmire XXX. One Israel may not be able to bomb its way out of.
This might be the worst-case scenario. But in the Middle East today, the worst-case has a way of becoming the baseline.
The next few days will reveal whether reason prevails - or whether we are about to watch another war erupt, one bomb, one tribal vendetta, one Israeli misstep at a time.
XXXXXX engagements
