[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Cris 知能指数80 [@80IQmindset](/creator/twitter/80IQmindset) on x 24.3K followers Created: 2025-07-17 16:03:05 UTC Treasury Companies Defending Their mNAV ________________________________________ Not a new topic as it’s been discussed in length on spaces but companies better be able to defend their mNAV with prefs in a de-leveraging / inevitable BTCTC sector downturn . Light bulb hit me when Saylor walked through this process about six weeks ago at a conference. Many companies won’t be able to issue credit because they aren’t enough in their flywheel and the downward spiral will be brutal. Companies that can’t defend their mNAV will go <1 and will be put in precarious situations. We’ve already seen examples of companies trading <1 during this bull cycle, albeit they bounced above and recovered pretty quick. Imagine when capital Is getting sucked out of the space. The other issue is the variable of time. Just because they can release the prefs doesn’t mean they’re going to takeoff at scale. They are basically making a new market in some regards, so it will take a significant amount of time or execution in order to get them ramped. You would think the market would be forward-looking and starting to potentially front run one of these companies that are potentially getting close to launching. But as we know, the sector is hyper inefficient - to say the least. We saw MSTR launch STRK and STRF and the mNAV contracted 💀 (other factors - sector rotation, Jim and Friends, et al) but nevertheless it did. So market participants did not see the initial value for the prefs to create new leverage and expand the NAV without diluting the common equity. But it’s been a slow grind and we’ve seen mNAV expand since and I expect it expand if bull market continues. Also, I have to keep reminding myself that BTC torque creates long-term shareholder value and the metrics that Saylor used in the earnings call has a XX year timeframe. We know a lot of allocators in the sector right now have an attention span of about eight days, so this is not surprising. Saylor has mentioned the concept of defending the mNAV more than once in the last couple of weeks so I’d probably start paying attention to what that means for any BTCTC you are looking at when it comes to deriving a longer term valuation for the company. There’s only one that has prefs now and there’s one other that’s close on the timeline as far as I’m concerned. Again, if the market starts figuring this out, I think that should add more of a premium to those companies that have that remote compared to the others. It’s not difficult to understand if a company has a wider motor. They have a more efficient opportunity to bring shareholder value over the long-term. As a significant bonus, they can defend against short attacks and speculators that want to pile in to drive the premium sub <1 by using the pref ATM to squeeze them. If one company has the moat of “defending the castle” why would you try to short them when there’s plenty of other flywheels collapsing, which creates downward pressure and a reflexive negative flywheel to the downside. Shorting the wrong treasury company with an mNAV near one could result in your face getting ripped off when they issue prefs to add leverage/bitcoin without diluting the common that you could “ride down with”. To wrap this up if this seems like rambling, then it probably is. This is something that I think about looking forward to the next part of the cycle beyond the strong bull market that I think is coming. In the end, the leaders deserve a higher premium. The market will eventually figure this out, but there’s lots of dislocation right now to say the least. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [saylor](/topic/saylor) [Post Link](https://x.com/80IQmindset/status/1945876922216464890)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Cris 知能指数80 @80IQmindset on x 24.3K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 16:03:05 UTC
Treasury Companies Defending Their mNAV
Not a new topic as it’s been discussed in length on spaces but companies better be able to defend their mNAV with prefs in a de-leveraging / inevitable BTCTC sector downturn . Light bulb hit me when Saylor walked through this process about six weeks ago at a conference.
Many companies won’t be able to issue credit because they aren’t enough in their flywheel and the downward spiral will be brutal.
Companies that can’t defend their mNAV will go <1 and will be put in precarious situations. We’ve already seen examples of companies trading <1 during this bull cycle, albeit they bounced above and recovered pretty quick. Imagine when capital Is getting sucked out of the space.
The other issue is the variable of time. Just because they can release the prefs doesn’t mean they’re going to takeoff at scale. They are basically making a new market in some regards, so it will take a significant amount of time or execution in order to get them ramped.
You would think the market would be forward-looking and starting to potentially front run one of these companies that are potentially getting close to launching. But as we know, the sector is hyper inefficient - to say the least.
We saw MSTR launch STRK and STRF and the mNAV contracted 💀 (other factors - sector rotation, Jim and Friends, et al) but nevertheless it did. So market participants did not see the initial value for the prefs to create new leverage and expand the NAV without diluting the common equity. But it’s been a slow grind and we’ve seen mNAV expand since and I expect it expand if bull market continues.
Also, I have to keep reminding myself that BTC torque creates long-term shareholder value and the metrics that Saylor used in the earnings call has a XX year timeframe. We know a lot of allocators in the sector right now have an attention span of about eight days, so this is not surprising.
Saylor has mentioned the concept of defending the mNAV more than once in the last couple of weeks so I’d probably start paying attention to what that means for any BTCTC you are looking at when it comes to deriving a longer term valuation for the company.
There’s only one that has prefs now and there’s one other that’s close on the timeline as far as I’m concerned.
Again, if the market starts figuring this out, I think that should add more of a premium to those companies that have that remote compared to the others. It’s not difficult to understand if a company has a wider motor. They have a more efficient opportunity to bring shareholder value over the long-term.
As a significant bonus, they can defend against short attacks and speculators that want to pile in to drive the premium sub <1 by using the pref ATM to squeeze them.
If one company has the moat of “defending the castle” why would you try to short them when there’s plenty of other flywheels collapsing, which creates downward pressure and a reflexive negative flywheel to the downside.
Shorting the wrong treasury company with an mNAV near one could result in your face getting ripped off when they issue prefs to add leverage/bitcoin without diluting the common that you could “ride down with”.
To wrap this up if this seems like rambling, then it probably is. This is something that I think about looking forward to the next part of the cycle beyond the strong bull market that I think is coming.
In the end, the leaders deserve a higher premium.
The market will eventually figure this out, but there’s lots of dislocation right now to say the least.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics saylor