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![Econ_Parker Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::40072593.png) Parker Ross [@Econ_Parker](/creator/twitter/Econ_Parker) on x 20.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 14:11:36 UTC

June Retail Sales beat expectations up XXX% m/m (0.1% consensus), with Control Group (which feeds directly into GDP) also up XXX% vs expectations for a XXX% gain.

Very solid figures in nominal terms, but it's important to note that core goods inflation has picked up in recent months. 

So, to understand if consumers are really ramping up spending or simply keeping up with higher prices, we need to adjust for inflation.

The trend is clear: consumers have been spending less and less in real (inflation-adjusted) terms over the course of 2025 as goods inflation has accelerated.

Some details in the 🧵 including a simple model for how much inflation has picked up for the Control Group.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwEJwhvWsAALfDY.jpg)

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**Related Topics**
[inflation](/topic/inflation)
[gdp](/topic/gdp)
[gdp growth](/topic/gdp-growth)

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