[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Jukan [@Jukanlosreve](/creator/twitter/Jukanlosreve) on x 22.6K followers Created: 2025-07-17 12:50:48 UTC TSMC - JP Morgan TSMC's Q2 2025 earnings announcement showed profitability and operating profit margins exceeding market expectations. The company's performance was robust, particularly due to high margins and non-operating income, despite foreign exchange headwinds. The Q3 2025 guidance was set at approximately an X% increase quarter-over-quarter, which is higher than our firm's estimated X% increase. This performance improvement was primarily driven by seasonal demand from smartphones, while the HPC segment is expected to remain flat after a surge in the first half of the year. The gross margin guidance of around XXXX% also indicates sound profitability despite the strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar. A positive outlook is maintained for data center AI demand, and CoWoS supply shortages are expected to persist until 2026. TSMC upgraded its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to roughly XX% growth, but anticipates Q4 2025 revenue to decline by approximately XX% quarter-over-quarter. This is a significant decrease even considering typical seasonality. JPMorgan analyzes this as a result of conservative assumptions regarding tariff impacts and the pulled-forward demand from Q2 and Q3. In terms of long-term growth, the N2 process and AI demand were cited as key drivers, with the ramp-up of N3 and N2 nodes at the Arizona fab also accelerating. Particularly, N2 is experiencing strong demand from both HPC and AI, with wafer input expected to begin by the end of 2025 and revenue to fully materialize by mid-2026. The average selling price (ASP) in Q2 increased by XX% year-over-year, and double-digit ASP growth is projected to continue in the future. However, the Q4 revenue guidance reflects a sharper decline than expected, and demand recovery in non-AI segments remains weak. The effect of China's consumer subsidies may also be short-lived, and a somewhat cautious tone was observed regarding expansion plans in Japan and Europe. Capital expenditure plans beyond 2026 were not specified, and the company is assessed to have taken a more conservative stance than market expectations. This presents a slight disconnect with the strong anticipation for N2 process expansion. JPMorgan expects to upgrade its 2025 earnings forecast by about X% to X% based on this announcement, but a significant upward revision of profit forecasts will be challenging until the extent of the Q4 earnings decline becomes clear. In the short term, the stock price may rise by X% to 5%, reflecting the strong Q3 revenue growth guidance and robust margin outlook. However, due to the conservative Q4 guidance, the stock is likely to trade within a narrow range for the next two to three months. $TSM XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [robust](/topic/robust) [jpmorgan chase](/topic/jpmorgan-chase) [stocks financial services](/topic/stocks-financial-services) [stocks banks](/topic/stocks-banks) [Post Link](https://x.com/Jukanlosreve/status/1945828530765570056)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Jukan @Jukanlosreve on x 22.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 12:50:48 UTC
TSMC - JP Morgan
TSMC's Q2 2025 earnings announcement showed profitability and operating profit margins exceeding market expectations. The company's performance was robust, particularly due to high margins and non-operating income, despite foreign exchange headwinds. The Q3 2025 guidance was set at approximately an X% increase quarter-over-quarter, which is higher than our firm's estimated X% increase. This performance improvement was primarily driven by seasonal demand from smartphones, while the HPC segment is expected to remain flat after a surge in the first half of the year. The gross margin guidance of around XXXX% also indicates sound profitability despite the strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar. A positive outlook is maintained for data center AI demand, and CoWoS supply shortages are expected to persist until 2026.
TSMC upgraded its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to roughly XX% growth, but anticipates Q4 2025 revenue to decline by approximately XX% quarter-over-quarter. This is a significant decrease even considering typical seasonality. JPMorgan analyzes this as a result of conservative assumptions regarding tariff impacts and the pulled-forward demand from Q2 and Q3. In terms of long-term growth, the N2 process and AI demand were cited as key drivers, with the ramp-up of N3 and N2 nodes at the Arizona fab also accelerating. Particularly, N2 is experiencing strong demand from both HPC and AI, with wafer input expected to begin by the end of 2025 and revenue to fully materialize by mid-2026. The average selling price (ASP) in Q2 increased by XX% year-over-year, and double-digit ASP growth is projected to continue in the future.
However, the Q4 revenue guidance reflects a sharper decline than expected, and demand recovery in non-AI segments remains weak. The effect of China's consumer subsidies may also be short-lived, and a somewhat cautious tone was observed regarding expansion plans in Japan and Europe. Capital expenditure plans beyond 2026 were not specified, and the company is assessed to have taken a more conservative stance than market expectations. This presents a slight disconnect with the strong anticipation for N2 process expansion.
JPMorgan expects to upgrade its 2025 earnings forecast by about X% to X% based on this announcement, but a significant upward revision of profit forecasts will be challenging until the extent of the Q4 earnings decline becomes clear. In the short term, the stock price may rise by X% to 5%, reflecting the strong Q3 revenue growth guidance and robust margin outlook. However, due to the conservative Q4 guidance, the stock is likely to trade within a narrow range for the next two to three months.
$TSM
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics robust jpmorgan chase stocks financial services stocks banks