[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Kaushik [@BigBullCap](/creator/twitter/BigBullCap) on x 102.4K followers Created: 2025-07-17 12:22:49 UTC $ASML Wolfe Research Reiterates Outperform PT EUR800 With regard to CY25 numbers, 3Q guidance was a bit light, but full year guidance was unchanged, reflecting XX% y/y growth, in line with consensus. The company did lower EUV unit/revenue assumptions for CY25, but the lower revenue from new EUV tools was offset by higher upgrades (captured in installed base revenue), and lower EUV units were offset by a mix shift to 3800, which carries higher ASPs. Total expectations therefore remain unchanged. Management did however downtick on their conviction for CY26 revenue growth, citing macro/geopolitical uncertainty, and they noted customers are more uncertain vs. XX days ago (an example is China AI restrictions, which completely reversed over the last XX days). We don’t think customers’ fundamental outlook has changed, but the uncertainty is understandable, and we agree that necessitates some cushion for CY26 estimates. Since ASML has the longest lead times in SCE, if customers defer investment decisions waiting for more tariff certainty, that could have the effect of pushing some revenue from CY26 to CY27. We are therefore trimming our CY26 rev/ EPS from €36.8bn/€28.95 to €34.1bn/€25.75 to account for that uncertainty. Nonetheless, we’re still bullish on the fundamentals heading into next year. We think TSMC will need to continue to spend to support both N2 and AI growth. We think DRAM capacity needs to grow to support the CY27 demand inflection in HBM, and expect China spending flat next year and that INTC spending has been derisked. Valuation remains reasonable with ASML trading at ~24x our new CY26 EPS, inline with peers and at a significant discount to ASML's 5-year average ~31x. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [asml](/topic/asml) [$asml](/topic/$asml) [Post Link](https://x.com/BigBullCap/status/1945821488491471002)
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Kaushik @BigBullCap on x 102.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 12:22:49 UTC
$ASML Wolfe Research Reiterates Outperform PT EUR800
With regard to CY25 numbers, 3Q guidance was a bit light, but full year guidance was unchanged, reflecting XX% y/y growth, in line with consensus. The company did lower EUV unit/revenue assumptions for CY25, but the lower revenue from new EUV tools was offset by higher upgrades (captured in installed base revenue), and lower EUV units were offset by a mix shift to 3800, which carries higher ASPs. Total expectations therefore remain unchanged. Management did however downtick on their conviction for CY26 revenue growth, citing macro/geopolitical uncertainty, and they noted customers are more uncertain vs. XX days ago (an example is China AI restrictions, which completely reversed over the last XX days). We don’t think customers’ fundamental outlook has changed, but the uncertainty is understandable, and we agree that necessitates some cushion for CY26 estimates. Since ASML has the longest lead times in SCE, if customers defer investment decisions waiting for more tariff certainty, that could have the effect of pushing some revenue from CY26 to CY27. We are therefore trimming our CY26 rev/ EPS from €36.8bn/€28.95 to €34.1bn/€25.75 to account for that uncertainty. Nonetheless, we’re still bullish on the fundamentals heading into next year. We think TSMC will need to continue to spend to support both N2 and AI growth. We think DRAM capacity needs to grow to support the CY27 demand inflection in HBM, and expect China spending flat next year and that INTC spending has been derisked. Valuation remains reasonable with ASML trading at ~24x our new CY26 EPS, inline with peers and at a significant discount to ASML's 5-year average ~31x.
XXXXX engagements
