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![GabGrowth Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1030436381779156993.png) Gab [@GabGrowth](/creator/twitter/GabGrowth) on x 14.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 12:03:11 UTC

8/ The Risks and the Bear Case

Geopolitical Tension: Taiwan remains a key geographical flashpoint. While partially mitigated through new fabs in other countries, Taiwan remains crucial, and a Chinese invasion would be considered an existential crisis.

Customer Concentration: Apple alone makes up ~20% of TSMC’s revenue. Nvidia makes up ~15% of revenue and will likely become a much larger percentage over the coming decade.

Capital Intensity: With TSMC spending $30-$35B in CAPEX a year, a temporary slowdown will lead to a significant drop in profitability.

Samsung and Intel: While both are currently far behind, these are capable businesses with huge ambitions and a massive cash pile.

AI Bubble Risk: If AI demand normalises faster than expected, growth rates could stall big time.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwDt1Y7XQAAmP2K.jpg)

XX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1945816549086187762/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[countries](/topic/countries)
[taiwan](/topic/taiwan)
[$nvda](/topic/$nvda)
[stocks technology](/topic/stocks-technology)

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