[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Ehraz Ahmed [@ehrazahmedd](/creator/twitter/ehrazahmedd) on x 1855 followers Created: 2025-07-17 11:36:15 UTC $CRCL has my attention. WHAT I LIKE: X. Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, ICE, and BNY Mellon are all already working with Circle. X. The GENIUS Act just passed Senate approval (68-30), bringing regulatory clarity to stablecoins. X. Circle’s USDC model already complies (reserves in T-bills or insured deposits), giving it a first-mover moat as others scramble to adjust X. USDC is becoming the trusted institutional-grade stablecoin, while USDT remains opaque and unregulated. X. Circle could be the SWIFT of stablecoins, offering programmable, faster, cheaper money movement. X. Circle is the only public stablecoin pure-play. No one else offers that exposure. X. TAM is massive: Barclays and Goldman both forecast 38–40% USDC circulation CAGR. X. Fed interest income on $60B+ reserves means it’s profitable today even without transaction fees. X. Shopify now accepts USDC via Coinbase’s Base protocol. This is the first global e-commerce stablecoin use case. XX. Huge tailwind against PayPal and even Visa if USDC becomes embedded into checkout flows. XX. Already profitable. XX. XX% operating margin today, projected to hit XX% by 2027. XX. Net cash, no dilution needed. XX. $300M FCF, $1.1B cash buffer. WHAT I DONT LIKE: X. Coinbase reliance is a weakness. Coinbase is heavily incentivized to push USDC. But Circle is paying high distribution fees to Coinbase. Profit margins could be squeezed unless this relationship is renegotiated. X. Interest rate sensitivity. Over XX% of revenue comes from interest income on reserves. If the Fed cuts rates, Circle’s income drops dramatically. It’s like a “digital money market fund,” not a true payments innovator. X. Valuation insanity IPO price was $XX. Stock shot up to $200+ in three weeks (7x). Even after the pullback, valuation is disconnected from revenue (TTM $1.1B). Implied valuation: >35x sales, highly speculative without sticky fee-based income. X. Overhyped regulation boost: GENIUS Act isn’t law yet. Just passed Senate. If House or President softens it or delays it, the regulatory tailwind fades. Some bearish articles say GENIUS Act is a trap legitimizing stables but capping yield & killing DeFi synergy. X. Not really DeFi: Circle is centralized, KYC-heavy and will likely align with legacy finance (banks, compliance, etc.). It’s not the “crypto future” it’s just TradFi with a token.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [genius act](/topic/genius-act) [crcl](/topic/crcl) [insurance](/topic/insurance) [stablecoins](/topic/stablecoins) [clarity](/topic/clarity) [$crcl](/topic/$crcl) [ahmed](/topic/ahmed) [circle internet group](/topic/circle-internet-group) [Post Link](https://x.com/ehrazahmedd/status/1945809769253761534)
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Ehraz Ahmed @ehrazahmedd on x 1855 followers
Created: 2025-07-17 11:36:15 UTC
$CRCL has my attention.
WHAT I LIKE:
X. Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, ICE, and BNY Mellon are all already working with Circle.
X. The GENIUS Act just passed Senate approval (68-30), bringing regulatory clarity to stablecoins.
X. Circle’s USDC model already complies (reserves in T-bills or insured deposits), giving it a first-mover moat as others scramble to adjust
X. USDC is becoming the trusted institutional-grade stablecoin, while USDT remains opaque and unregulated.
X. Circle could be the SWIFT of stablecoins, offering programmable, faster, cheaper money movement.
X. Circle is the only public stablecoin pure-play. No one else offers that exposure.
X. TAM is massive: Barclays and Goldman both forecast 38–40% USDC circulation CAGR.
X. Fed interest income on $60B+ reserves means it’s profitable today even without transaction fees.
X. Shopify now accepts USDC via Coinbase’s Base protocol. This is the first global e-commerce stablecoin use case.
XX. Huge tailwind against PayPal and even Visa if USDC becomes embedded into checkout flows.
XX. Already profitable.
XX. XX% operating margin today, projected to hit XX% by 2027.
XX. Net cash, no dilution needed.
XX. $300M FCF, $1.1B cash buffer.
WHAT I DONT LIKE:
X. Coinbase reliance is a weakness. Coinbase is heavily incentivized to push USDC. But Circle is paying high distribution fees to Coinbase.
Profit margins could be squeezed unless this relationship is renegotiated.
X. Interest rate sensitivity. Over XX% of revenue comes from interest income on reserves.
If the Fed cuts rates, Circle’s income drops dramatically.
It’s like a “digital money market fund,” not a true payments innovator.
X. Valuation insanity IPO price was $XX. Stock shot up to $200+ in three weeks (7x).
Even after the pullback, valuation is disconnected from revenue (TTM $1.1B).
Implied valuation: >35x sales, highly speculative without sticky fee-based income.
X. Overhyped regulation boost:
GENIUS Act isn’t law yet. Just passed Senate.
If House or President softens it or delays it, the regulatory tailwind fades.
Some bearish articles say GENIUS Act is a trap legitimizing stables but capping yield & killing DeFi synergy.
X. Not really DeFi:
Circle is centralized, KYC-heavy and will likely align with legacy finance (banks, compliance, etc.). It’s not the “crypto future” it’s just TradFi with a token.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics genius act crcl insurance stablecoins clarity $crcl ahmed circle internet group