[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Rohan Paul [@rohanpaul_ai](/creator/twitter/rohanpaul_ai) on x 73.6K followers Created: 2025-07-16 13:56:00 UTC The paper finds that money-based crowd odds on Polymarket called the 2024 presidential result more accurately and earlier than every traditional poll, with the edge most obvious in key swing states where markets stayed on Trump while surveys wavered So basically, Polls still miss presidential winners despite $50M spent each cycle. The paper pits those polls against daily Polymarket odds, modelling both with Bayesian structural time series. Market prices jumped the night of Trump's July shooting attempt, giving him XX% while polls barely moved. By XX October, market forecasts never dipped below majority likelihood, polls never rose above coin‑flip. State markets tagged Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona as basically decided, spotlighting Michigan and Wisconsin as the only true toss‑ups. Pennsylvania and Michigan odds explained most national swings. Limitations include crypto‑heavy users, regulation that excludes US bettors, and signs of wash‑trading that may puff volume. Even so, the crowd putting money down beat traditional polling at real‑time signal, underscoring the need to watch markets and harden them against manipulation. ---- Paper – arxiv. org/abs/2507.08921 Paper Title: "Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?"  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [50m](/topic/50m) [$50m](/topic/$50m) [donald trump](/topic/donald-trump) [Post Link](https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1945482553366135194)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai on x 73.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-16 13:56:00 UTC
The paper finds that money-based crowd odds on Polymarket called the 2024 presidential result more accurately and earlier than every traditional poll, with the edge most obvious in key swing states where markets stayed on Trump while surveys wavered
So basically, Polls still miss presidential winners despite $50M spent each cycle.
The paper pits those polls against daily Polymarket odds, modelling both with Bayesian structural time series.
Market prices jumped the night of Trump's July shooting attempt, giving him XX% while polls barely moved.
By XX October, market forecasts never dipped below majority likelihood, polls never rose above coin‑flip.
State markets tagged Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona as basically decided, spotlighting Michigan and Wisconsin as the only true toss‑ups.
Pennsylvania and Michigan odds explained most national swings.
Limitations include crypto‑heavy users, regulation that excludes US bettors, and signs of wash‑trading that may puff volume.
Even so, the crowd putting money down beat traditional polling at real‑time signal, underscoring the need to watch markets and harden them against manipulation.
Paper – arxiv. org/abs/2507.08921
Paper Title: "Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?"
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics 50m $50m donald trump