[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Trissy [@Cryptotrissy](/creator/twitter/Cryptotrissy) on x 15.5K followers Created: 2025-07-15 22:10:21 UTC Sizing Your Conviction I did a poll in my telegram asking “If there was an XX% chance that you could 2x your entire portfolio in X month, but you have to sit on your hands and do nothing, would you take it?” Considering 80%+ of people said yes to this, I’m quite sure majority who voted yes would have their risk management and expressions of trades not reflecting that same belief. Let’s assume you have a port full of XXX% USD which equals $XXX for easy maths. How do you double this without taking outsized risk in a one month period? My favourite R:R trades are allocating roughly XX% (my max size) of my port to a single trade which I believe is a very strong chance at a 5-10x, if it’s more than even better. XX% is enough size which moves my goalpost considerably if correct and small enough that I can sleep at night knowing I have X more chances left in the tank if I’m wrong. Now if I believe there’s an XX% chance of 5x’ing a trade with size, what returns do I need to expect from aping new shitcoins? Scenario A: You allocate XX% of your portfolio to a trade where you believe there’s an XX% chance of success. If it hits, that XX% grows 5×, turning $XX into $125, while still holding the other $XX in USD. Your new total: $XX + $XXX = $200, effectively doubling your portfolio (+100%). If it fails (20% chance), you lose the $XX staked and are left with $XX (–25%). EV = (0.8 × $200) + (0.2 × $75) = $XXX + $XX = $XXX So, if you took this same type of trade many times under the same conditions, on average your portfolio would grow to $XXX per $XXX risked, a +75% expected gain. (1.75x) Scenario B You allocate X% of your portfolio to a trade with a XX% chance of success. To match the +75% portfolio gain from Scenario A, this small stake would need a 16× return, turning $X into $XX. If it hits, your total portfolio becomes $XX + $XX = $175, the same +75% result. Success: XX% × $XXX = $XXXXX Failure: XX% × $XX = $XXXXX Total EV: $XXXXX + $XXXXX = $XXX So on average, you end up with $XXX for every $XXX risked, a +3% expected gain. (1.03x) Results Scenario A = X out of XX trades are wins (your XX% stake goes 5×), X are losses (you lose the XX% you risk). Each time you: Win: your portfolio doubles (because XX% × X = 125%, plus XX% untouched = 200%) Lose: your portfolio drops to XX% of what it was before (you lose the 25%) X losses: multiply by XXXX × XXXX = XXXXXX X wins: multiply by X × X × X × X × X × X × X × X = XXX 100×0.5625×256= $XXXXXX If you risk XX% of your portfolio per trade, win X out of XX times (with 5× returns), and compound each time, your $XXX can grow to $XXXXXX Scenario B = You risk X% of your portfolio per trade with a XX% chance of hitting a 16× return. You win X out of XX times, lose the other X. Each time you: Win: your portfolio increases by XX% (5% × XX = 80%, added to the XX% untouched) Lose: your portfolio drops by X% 100×(0.95)9×1.75= $XXXXXX If you risk X% per trade, hit just X win out of XX with the rest being losses, your $XXX grows to $XXXXXX. While it’s difficult to extrapolate an accurate process due to onchains non linear outcomes, it highlights how important being consistently right with size is as opposed to gambling higher risk coins on shorter time frames. My thoughts I’m convinced if you show up everyday and put in the research, on average you can find one trade per month over the course of a year, which you can allocate XX% of your port and make a fairly risk free 5x being under a X fig port. Since February, the markets have very clearly rewarded conviction trades which don’t come around often. Yes Cupsey and traders of his calibre still rinse the market on a daily basis, though they make up 0.0001%. Looking from an average perspecitve, onchain has more losing traders than ever before. This is why I’ve always been a conviction trader and infrequently share new plays as the results are heavily against you, especially in the market conditions we’ve experienced these past X months. “What do you do with all your time if you’re just holding coins?” Constantly underwriting positions, researching and adjusting to what the market is showing me. - Is token abc a more risk adjusted trade compared to token xyz if abc 3x’s from here? - If I’m to rotate from abc to xyz, what are some key signals which would present it as a better opportunity? - In a market or eco crash, what are key levels which I’d look for to increase or decrease exposure? - Where are the potential faults in my trade which I could be overlooking, if the team delays or the product takes > X month past their roadmap, does this lose attention? - Am I comfortable holding this at -XX% it’s current price, if not, am I betting with conviction or emotions on a hot trend? - Where are emerging trends which will have overlap with crypto in the coming months? I’m also a massive proponent of pay-to-play and trading with sub X% size to constantly refine your edge, then sizing up when the right token or conditions is presented in front of you (e.g. supported by a large name with high hit rate or X different coins reaching XX mil mcap in a week). Understanding sizing dynamics based on the accessible information you have is just as important as the research you put into the project/token itself. If you want to consistently perform over long periods of time, you need to treat this game like a professional. Most lose their discipline because onchain feels like a game of monopoly where numbers on a screen morph their perception on accessibility to wealth. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [asset allocation](/topic/asset-allocation) [telegram](/topic/telegram) [Post Link](https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1945244573196018099)
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Trissy @Cryptotrissy on x 15.5K followers
Created: 2025-07-15 22:10:21 UTC
Sizing Your Conviction
I did a poll in my telegram asking “If there was an XX% chance that you could 2x your entire portfolio in X month, but you have to sit on your hands and do nothing, would you take it?”
Considering 80%+ of people said yes to this, I’m quite sure majority who voted yes would have their risk management and expressions of trades not reflecting that same belief.
Let’s assume you have a port full of XXX% USD which equals $XXX for easy maths. How do you double this without taking outsized risk in a one month period?
My favourite R:R trades are allocating roughly XX% (my max size) of my port to a single trade which I believe is a very strong chance at a 5-10x, if it’s more than even better.
XX% is enough size which moves my goalpost considerably if correct and small enough that I can sleep at night knowing I have X more chances left in the tank if I’m wrong.
Now if I believe there’s an XX% chance of 5x’ing a trade with size, what returns do I need to expect from aping new shitcoins?
Scenario A:
You allocate XX% of your portfolio to a trade where you believe there’s an XX% chance of success. If it hits, that XX% grows 5×, turning $XX into $125, while still holding the other $XX in USD.
Your new total: $XX + $XXX = $200, effectively doubling your portfolio (+100%).
If it fails (20% chance), you lose the $XX staked and are left with $XX (–25%).
EV = (0.8 × $200) + (0.2 × $75) = $XXX + $XX = $XXX
So, if you took this same type of trade many times under the same conditions, on average your portfolio would grow to $XXX per $XXX risked, a +75% expected gain. (1.75x)
Scenario B
You allocate X% of your portfolio to a trade with a XX% chance of success. To match the +75% portfolio gain from Scenario A, this small stake would need a 16× return, turning $X into $XX.
If it hits, your total portfolio becomes $XX + $XX = $175, the same +75% result.
Success: XX% × $XXX = $XXXXX Failure: XX% × $XX = $XXXXX Total EV: $XXXXX + $XXXXX = $XXX
So on average, you end up with $XXX for every $XXX risked, a +3% expected gain. (1.03x)
Results
Scenario A = X out of XX trades are wins (your XX% stake goes 5×), X are losses (you lose the XX% you risk). Each time you:
Win: your portfolio doubles (because XX% × X = 125%, plus XX% untouched = 200%)
Lose: your portfolio drops to XX% of what it was before (you lose the 25%)
X losses: multiply by XXXX × XXXX = XXXXXX X wins: multiply by X × X × X × X × X × X × X × X = XXX
100×0.5625×256= $XXXXXX
If you risk XX% of your portfolio per trade, win X out of XX times (with 5× returns), and compound each time, your $XXX can grow to $XXXXXX
Scenario B = You risk X% of your portfolio per trade with a XX% chance of hitting a 16× return. You win X out of XX times, lose the other X. Each time you:
Win: your portfolio increases by XX% (5% × XX = 80%, added to the XX% untouched)
Lose: your portfolio drops by X%
100×(0.95)9×1.75= $XXXXXX
If you risk X% per trade, hit just X win out of XX with the rest being losses, your $XXX grows to $XXXXXX.
While it’s difficult to extrapolate an accurate process due to onchains non linear outcomes, it highlights how important being consistently right with size is as opposed to gambling higher risk coins on shorter time frames.
My thoughts
I’m convinced if you show up everyday and put in the research, on average you can find one trade per month over the course of a year, which you can allocate XX% of your port and make a fairly risk free 5x being under a X fig port.
Since February, the markets have very clearly rewarded conviction trades which don’t come around often.
Yes Cupsey and traders of his calibre still rinse the market on a daily basis, though they make up 0.0001%.
Looking from an average perspecitve, onchain has more losing traders than ever before.
This is why I’ve always been a conviction trader and infrequently share new plays as the results are heavily against you, especially in the market conditions we’ve experienced these past X months.
“What do you do with all your time if you’re just holding coins?”
Constantly underwriting positions, researching and adjusting to what the market is showing me.
Is token abc a more risk adjusted trade compared to token xyz if abc 3x’s from here?
If I’m to rotate from abc to xyz, what are some key signals which would present it as a better opportunity?
In a market or eco crash, what are key levels which I’d look for to increase or decrease exposure?
Where are the potential faults in my trade which I could be overlooking, if the team delays or the product takes > X month past their roadmap, does this lose attention?
Am I comfortable holding this at -XX% it’s current price, if not, am I betting with conviction or emotions on a hot trend?
Where are emerging trends which will have overlap with crypto in the coming months?
I’m also a massive proponent of pay-to-play and trading with sub X% size to constantly refine your edge, then sizing up when the right token or conditions is presented in front of you (e.g. supported by a large name with high hit rate or X different coins reaching XX mil mcap in a week).
Understanding sizing dynamics based on the accessible information you have is just as important as the research you put into the project/token itself.
If you want to consistently perform over long periods of time, you need to treat this game like a professional.
Most lose their discipline because onchain feels like a game of monopoly where numbers on a screen morph their perception on accessibility to wealth.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics asset allocation telegram