[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  boyzMETA [@boyz_meta](/creator/twitter/boyz_meta) on x 4103 followers Created: 2025-07-15 16:21:20 UTC Why Metaplanet was trading way below new exercise price ¥1547 last night? (Long thread) There are long list of reasons, but I’ll try my best to summarize my train of thoughts below. (I'm sure I miss many of them) TLDR: Japanese macro concern, temporary weakness in Bitcoin DETAIL: 1⃣ Mounting concerns on Japanese solvency, inflation, and Bank Of Japan (BoJ) loosen Yield Curve Control Source : There are risks with next week Upper House election where Japanese parties and politician are going to do consumption tax cut and potential other tax cuts. This will result in more debt, less tax revenue and way higher Debt-to-GDP ratio 250%+. Inflation has been above X% for quite sometime; even though June report has slowed down to XXX% compared to previous month. (BOJ inflation target is 2%). Now investors speculate this data will speculate BOJ decision for rate hike. In the past, BOJ has been consistent buyer of long term Japan Gov’t Bond (JGB) to do yield curve control to ensure long term yield does not spike and cause lending rate havoc. Starting early last year, BOJ is tightening this stimulus and no longer suppressing this long term yield. That’s why super long JGB yield 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-year maturities were spiking last night due to investors dumped Japanese bond and demanding higher yield due to these fear. 10-year yield, triple top at XXXX% 20-year yield, spiked ATH at XXXXX% 30-year yield, double top at XXX% 40-year yield, spiked higher than prev’ day at XXXX% This is ABNORMAL! Read my last month post about Japanese market struggle: 2⃣ USD/JPY hits ¥149 today and still NO ONE talks about it. I have been pointing out this danger several times since last month, but every one keeps ignoring it. Look at this post: Since end of June, Japanese ¥en has weakened more than X% and hit XX weekly moving avg ¥149. In another word, local Japanese people buying power is down almost X% just THIS MONTH! How does it relate to Metaplanet? Layman term, Metaplanet buying power is also down almost X% this month if they raised capital dominated in ¥en and buy Bitcoin in USD. IMO, this is one of other reasons why Metaplanet has relocated some of the 555M capital fund to subsidiary in US-based Miami to avoid this USD/JPY volatile conversion. 3⃣ Bitcoin hit my $120K target (Fib Ext 61.8%) yesterday and now is pulling back. This is a healthy pull back after breaking out from Inverse H&S pattern to retest neckline support at $110K - $111K Last night all local Japanese treasury companies are down; not only for Metaplanet Metaplanet 3350 -XXXX% Anap Holdings 3189 -XXX% Remixpoint Inc. 3825 -XXXX% Nexon Co,. Ltd -XXX% 4⃣ Another exercise by Evo Fund yesterday 9M shares with exercise price ¥1,551. Source: Hence total share dilution in July is 26.1M shares or almost X% of end of June shares outstanding (654,714,340 shares) Total completed of 20th series SAR is XXXXX% (26.1M shares out of 185M) Total completed of 555M plan so far is XXX% (26.1M shares out of 555M) Since yesterday Metaplanet price action was way below exercise price ¥1,547, Evo Fund was not the reason why it was down. It was due to Japanese bond uncertainty and risk-off mode. With Bitcoin pullbacks from ATH, this week Metaplanet has a chance to acquire more stack with same amount of capital raise. Assuming BTC/JPY at ¥17.3M and capital raise of ¥14B, they can acquire additional ~800 BTC with this capital. With 3305.T price closed last night at ¥1,436 mNAV is XXX multiple which is ABSOLUTE bargain level. You might ask with all of these complex macro issues, is this bullish or bearish for Metaplanet ? ✅Similar to United States indebtedness country, the only solution for solving bond vigilantes issue is by buying more Bitcoin to compensate your depreciate ¥en fiat. ✅The only way to play leverage in Japan to get exposure to Bitcoin is through Metaplanet. ✅The faster that Evo Fund can complete at least more than XX% -XX% of 555M plan the beneficial it is for Metaplanet; especially if Bitcoin price can consolidate on this $110K - $120K temporarily. ✅The only risk/concern for me is, if mNAV keeps getting de-compressed to low 2-3 multiple, but Evo Fund keeps selling shares to be able to complete its SAR series exercised. So far, this is NOT the case yet, as the adjusted exercise price every X days is still way above mNAV XXX mulitple. Be patient! There are lots of complex dynamic macro issue and fundamental playing into this investing. You have to keep monitoring and study this relentlessly. Don’t listen to all FUDs or bots who have NO clue what’s going on! That’s why I metaplanet ! 🚀 $MTPLF #メタプラネット 3350  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [yield curve](/topic/yield-curve) [japan](/topic/japan) [bank of](/topic/bank-of) [inflation](/topic/inflation) [macro](/topic/macro) [$mtplf](/topic/$mtplf) [stocks bitcoin treasuries](/topic/stocks-bitcoin-treasuries) [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) [Post Link](https://x.com/boyz_meta/status/1945156737323164157)
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boyzMETA @boyz_meta on x 4103 followers
Created: 2025-07-15 16:21:20 UTC
Why Metaplanet was trading way below new exercise price ¥1547 last night? (Long thread)
There are long list of reasons, but I’ll try my best to summarize my train of thoughts below. (I'm sure I miss many of them)
TLDR: Japanese macro concern, temporary weakness in Bitcoin
DETAIL: 1⃣ Mounting concerns on Japanese solvency, inflation, and Bank Of Japan (BoJ) loosen Yield Curve Control
Source :
There are risks with next week Upper House election where Japanese parties and politician are going to do consumption tax cut and potential other tax cuts.
This will result in more debt, less tax revenue and way higher Debt-to-GDP ratio 250%+.
Inflation has been above X% for quite sometime; even though June report has slowed down to XXX% compared to previous month. (BOJ inflation target is 2%). Now investors speculate this data will speculate BOJ decision for rate hike.
In the past, BOJ has been consistent buyer of long term Japan Gov’t Bond (JGB) to do yield curve control to ensure long term yield does not spike and cause lending rate havoc. Starting early last year, BOJ is tightening this stimulus and no longer suppressing this long term yield.
That’s why super long JGB yield 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-year maturities were spiking last night due to investors dumped Japanese bond and demanding higher yield due to these fear.
10-year yield, triple top at XXXX% 20-year yield, spiked ATH at XXXXX% 30-year yield, double top at XXX% 40-year yield, spiked higher than prev’ day at XXXX%
This is ABNORMAL!
Read my last month post about Japanese market struggle:
2⃣ USD/JPY hits ¥149 today and still NO ONE talks about it.
I have been pointing out this danger several times since last month, but every one keeps ignoring it. Look at this post:
Since end of June, Japanese ¥en has weakened more than X% and hit XX weekly moving avg ¥149.
In another word, local Japanese people buying power is down almost X% just THIS MONTH!
How does it relate to Metaplanet? Layman term, Metaplanet buying power is also down almost X% this month if they raised capital dominated in ¥en and buy Bitcoin in USD.
IMO, this is one of other reasons why Metaplanet has relocated some of the 555M capital fund to subsidiary in US-based Miami to avoid this USD/JPY volatile conversion.
3⃣ Bitcoin hit my $120K target (Fib Ext 61.8%) yesterday and now is pulling back. This is a healthy pull back after breaking out from Inverse H&S pattern to retest neckline support at $110K - $111K
Last night all local Japanese treasury companies are down; not only for Metaplanet
Metaplanet 3350 -XXXX% Anap Holdings 3189 -XXX% Remixpoint Inc. 3825 -XXXX% Nexon Co,. Ltd -XXX%
4⃣ Another exercise by Evo Fund yesterday 9M shares with exercise price ¥1,551.
Source:
Hence total share dilution in July is 26.1M shares or almost X% of end of June shares outstanding (654,714,340 shares)
Total completed of 20th series SAR is XXXXX% (26.1M shares out of 185M)
Total completed of 555M plan so far is XXX% (26.1M shares out of 555M)
Since yesterday Metaplanet price action was way below exercise price ¥1,547, Evo Fund was not the reason why it was down. It was due to Japanese bond uncertainty and risk-off mode.
With Bitcoin pullbacks from ATH, this week Metaplanet has a chance to acquire more stack with same amount of capital raise.
Assuming BTC/JPY at ¥17.3M and capital raise of ¥14B, they can acquire additional ~800 BTC with this capital.
With 3305.T price closed last night at ¥1,436 mNAV is XXX multiple which is ABSOLUTE bargain level.
You might ask with all of these complex macro issues, is this bullish or bearish for Metaplanet ?
✅Similar to United States indebtedness country, the only solution for solving bond vigilantes issue is by buying more Bitcoin to compensate your depreciate ¥en fiat.
✅The only way to play leverage in Japan to get exposure to Bitcoin is through Metaplanet.
✅The faster that Evo Fund can complete at least more than XX% -XX% of 555M plan the beneficial it is for Metaplanet; especially if Bitcoin price can consolidate on this $110K - $120K temporarily.
✅The only risk/concern for me is, if mNAV keeps getting de-compressed to low 2-3 multiple, but Evo Fund keeps selling shares to be able to complete its SAR series exercised. So far, this is NOT the case yet, as the adjusted exercise price every X days is still way above mNAV XXX mulitple.
Be patient! There are lots of complex dynamic macro issue and fundamental playing into this investing.
You have to keep monitoring and study this relentlessly. Don’t listen to all FUDs or bots who have NO clue what’s going on!
That’s why I metaplanet ! 🚀
$MTPLF #メタプラネット 3350
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics yield curve japan bank of inflation macro $mtplf stocks bitcoin treasuries bitcoin