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![CDemanincor Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1249803887235612674.png) Cypress Demanincor [@CDemanincor](/creator/twitter/CDemanincor) on x 44.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-15 12:53:25 UTC

This post by Watcher Guru is wrong in saying data came out "higher than expectations" actually  the data came out inline with the consensus 👈🏽

Learn how to read data properly instead of this drastic spread of miss information 

X. ✅ Inflation Came in Line With conesnsus
Both headline and core MoM CPI came in at XXX% and XXX% respectively, perfectly in line with the forecast.

YoY inflation was XXX% headline and XXX% core, again matching or slightly under expectations.

This suggests inflation is still running modestly above the Fed’s X% target, but not accelerating out of control.

X. 🛃 Minimal Tariff Impact—So Far
Despite prior warnings, the tariff impact has been muted for now.

Categories like used vehicles, apparel, and energy that saw declines in May stabilized, but there was no dramatic price spike in core goods.

Goldman’s estimate of 0.08pp contribution from tariffs to core CPI was not enough to push the number above consensus.

This supports the view that tariffs are having a “contained” or lagging effect—at least in June.

X. 📉 Shelter Prices Remain Sticky
Shelter costs were flagged as a stubborn contributor, continuing to add upward pressure to core inflation.

However, no new acceleration was reported, and the overall core services inflation remains stable.

🏦 Does This Inflation Data Support or Weigh on Rate Cut Bets?

✅ Supports Rate Cuts, But Doesn’t Urgently Accelerate Them

The lack of a surprise upside in inflation keeps the door open for gradual rate cuts, but does not force the Fed’s hand.

Markets are pricing in 50bps of cuts in 2025.

September cut odds stand at ~60%, slightly down from earlier this month (65%).

Powell’s “patient” stance remains valid as inflation shows no major re acceleration.

A print of XXX% or higher in core CPI could have undermined those expectations—but the XXX% result buys the Fed more time and will likely keep gains on the table for risk assets only thing that would kill risk sentiment after this report is hawkish fed comments or negative tariff headlines I dont see this inflation report having a major negative impact even though it does not support july rate cut it still keeps the door open for possible rate cuts later this year. Sellers are still defending higher prices in crypto (for now) but doesnt seem like buyers have completely lost control (yet)

🔄 Risk Assets & Market Implications
Markets are likely to take this data in stride, with:

Equities and crypto supported by the fact inflation is not spiraling.

Bond yields remaining range-bound, as rate cut expectations are not drastically altered.

The U.S. dollar might firm slightly, but overall, risk-on assets should maintain support in the absence of negative surprises. ( monitor trade headlines today for further market movement) we arent seeing any agressive buying after the data so we need to be patient 

📌 Key Summary Points:
Inflation increased modestly but in line with forecasts.

No clear signal that tariffs are dramatically impacting prices—yet.

Fed rate cut odds are intact but not accelerated by this data.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gv5kp4WW0AAluOC.png)

XXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1945104414919872922/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[inflation](/topic/inflation)

[Post Link](https://x.com/CDemanincor/status/1945104414919872922)