[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Zee C O N T R A R I A N [@ZeeContrarian1](/creator/twitter/ZeeContrarian1) on x 28.8K followers Created: 2025-07-15 12:51:26 UTC $MDWD | Understanding Probabilities The Setup MediWound ( $MDWD ) has two main products. The first is NexoBrid, a topical agent approved by the FDA for severe burn debridement. Vericel ( $VCEL ) began U.S. marketing not long ago. Recent conflicts have unexpectedly expanded its use to blast injuries, opening new military and trauma care markets. The total addressable market (TAM) for NexoBrid—including military and civilian use—is estimated at around $200M annually. By 2027, MDWD is expected to capture ~$35 of that. Not a breakout figure, but enough to support the current ~$200M valuation. Now for the interesting part The Real Upside: EscharEx Their second product, EscharEx, is in Phase X trials. The target market is much larger (~$2B TAM), and interim results are expected in 2H 2026. Our biotech advisor (a former $500M hedge fund manager) says this company is so disliked by Israeli institutions that it’s being completely overlooked—despite what he calls “as good as it gets” odds in biotech. His conviction: •$MDWD has an X% weight in his portfolio •Our independent analyst came to similar probability estimates The Math Phase X began in January. It was designed by CEO Ofer Gonen, a graduate of Israel’s elite IDF Talpiot unit. Unsurprisingly, the trial feels more like a Mossad op than a clinical study. It’s split into two parts: 1️⃣ Debridement •MDWD: X days •Placebo: XX days ➡ No contest Recruitment is surgical: each patient is hand-picked to preserve statistical integrity. Chance of success: XX% Intermediate Stage – Wound Bed Preparation (WBP) •MDWD: X days •Placebo: XX days So by Day 11, $MDWD patients are ready for closure. The placebo group doesn’t get there until Day XX. 2️⃣ Wound Closure This is where most investors misunderstand the trial. Yes, MDWD performs better—but the margin is smaller. And that’s okay. “It took me time to realize, and it seems no one gets it yet, that this part doesn’t really matter.” — Top biotech analyst Why not? Because wound closure is done manually, using third-party products from: •Mimedex •Solventum (rumored M&A interest) •Mölnlycke (owns ~10% of MDWD) All three are multi-billion dollar players—and none of them have their own debridement product. These same companies handle closure in both arms of the study. The Clever Setup The trial ends at Day XX. That’s critical. Closure typically takes 3–4 weeks. This gives MDWD-treated wounds ample time to close, while the placebo group barely gets started. Bottom Line • XX% probability of success on debridement • ~90% probability of success on wound closure I recommend using ChatGPT to verify whether these odds are supported by the Phase X data. Also, there’s no immediate catalyst—our experts believe the company will be acquired long before Phase X results are released next year. The odds outlined above aren’t just our view; the three major companies mentioned earlier likely see them as well. But if they don’t get acquired, I believe the stock will struggle to break $XX until we approach the Phase X interim results next year. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [$6753t](/topic/$6753t) [$vrcl](/topic/$vrcl) [$vcel](/topic/$vcel) [approved](/topic/approved) [$mdwd](/topic/$mdwd) [Post Link](https://x.com/ZeeContrarian1/status/1945103914896085184)
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Zee C O N T R A R I A N @ZeeContrarian1 on x 28.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-15 12:51:26 UTC
$MDWD | Understanding Probabilities
The Setup MediWound ( $MDWD ) has two main products. The first is NexoBrid, a topical agent approved by the FDA for severe burn debridement. Vericel ( $VCEL ) began U.S. marketing not long ago. Recent conflicts have unexpectedly expanded its use to blast injuries, opening new military and trauma care markets.
The total addressable market (TAM) for NexoBrid—including military and civilian use—is estimated at around $200M annually. By 2027, MDWD is expected to capture ~$35 of that. Not a breakout figure, but enough to support the current ~$200M valuation.
Now for the interesting part
The Real Upside: EscharEx
Their second product, EscharEx, is in Phase X trials. The target market is much larger (~$2B TAM), and interim results are expected in 2H 2026.
Our biotech advisor (a former $500M hedge fund manager) says this company is so disliked by Israeli institutions that it’s being completely overlooked—despite what he calls “as good as it gets” odds in biotech. His conviction: •$MDWD has an X% weight in his portfolio •Our independent analyst came to similar probability estimates
The Math Phase X began in January. It was designed by CEO Ofer Gonen, a graduate of Israel’s elite IDF Talpiot unit. Unsurprisingly, the trial feels more like a Mossad op than a clinical study. It’s split into two parts:
1️⃣ Debridement •MDWD: X days •Placebo: XX days ➡ No contest
Recruitment is surgical: each patient is hand-picked to preserve statistical integrity.
Chance of success: XX%
Intermediate Stage – Wound Bed Preparation (WBP) •MDWD: X days •Placebo: XX days
So by Day 11, $MDWD patients are ready for closure. The placebo group doesn’t get there until Day XX.
2️⃣ Wound Closure This is where most investors misunderstand the trial.
Yes, MDWD performs better—but the margin is smaller. And that’s okay.
“It took me time to realize, and it seems no one gets it yet, that this part doesn’t really matter.” — Top biotech analyst
Why not? Because wound closure is done manually, using third-party products from: •Mimedex •Solventum (rumored M&A interest) •Mölnlycke (owns ~10% of MDWD)
All three are multi-billion dollar players—and none of them have their own debridement product.
These same companies handle closure in both arms of the study.
The Clever Setup The trial ends at Day XX. That’s critical.
Closure typically takes 3–4 weeks. This gives MDWD-treated wounds ample time to close, while the placebo group barely gets started.
Bottom Line • XX% probability of success on debridement • ~90% probability of success on wound closure
I recommend using ChatGPT to verify whether these odds are supported by the Phase X data.
Also, there’s no immediate catalyst—our experts believe the company will be acquired long before Phase X results are released next year. The odds outlined above aren’t just our view; the three major companies mentioned earlier likely see them as well. But if they don’t get acquired, I believe the stock will struggle to break $XX until we approach the Phase X interim results next year.
XXXXXX engagements
