[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Amit Segal [@AmitSegal](/creator/twitter/AmitSegal) on x 38.9K followers Created: 2025-07-15 12:43:57 UTC 🧵Benjamin Netanyahu’s government fell from XX to XX seats overnight—the smallest possible majority in the XXX seat Knesset—after the Haredi Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions left the coalition. And that’s before the expected departure of Shas in the coming days, which would see Bibi’s government drop down to a mere XX seats. Before I dive into what this means for Israel, let’s recap the past day’s events. As I wrote yesterday, Degel HaTorah was expected to withdraw from the coalition within XX hours if a draft of the conscription law was not submitted. And although they were indeed presented with a new bill, they were far from satisfied with it, leading to their, and Agudat Yisrael’s, resignation. They even went on the offensive, with today’s front page of the Degel HaTorah-linked Yated Ne’eman newspaper accusing Netanyahu of once again trying to deceive the ultra-Orthodox. Important side note: The resignations take XX hours to come into effect, so there’s still time—at least in theory—for Netanyahu to prevent them from jumping ship. And don’t forget: As I noted yesterday, even if the government loses its majority now, legislation to dissolve the Knesset takes time—and the parliamentary summer recess begins in XX days. So, where to from here for the prime minister? While Netanyahu has managed to survive the summer without his government collapsing, he now faces the real threat of his coalition falling apart after the Knesset recess ends on October 19, which would send Israel to elections in January 2026. But there’s still a way back. Despite their anger with the government, the ultra-Orthodox parties—very aware that they’re unlikely to find better allies in the opposition—are still hoping they can push through a law exempting yeshiva students from IDF service. They’ve been consistently blocked, however, by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Yuli Edelstein, who refuses to bend to their will, angering the Haredim with demands in the current bill such as the requirement for yeshiva students to give fingerprint scans to verify that they are actually studying in yeshiva. Unfortunately, the saga doesn’t end there. Thanks to the twisted reality in which Israelis live, all of this is unfolding as the Jewish state mourns three soldiers who were killed in northern Gaza yesterday. 1/3  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [israel](/topic/israel) [benjamin](/topic/benjamin) [amit](/topic/amit) [Post Link](https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/1945102033473953822)
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Amit Segal @AmitSegal on x 38.9K followers
Created: 2025-07-15 12:43:57 UTC
🧵Benjamin Netanyahu’s government fell from XX to XX seats overnight—the smallest possible majority in the XXX seat Knesset—after the Haredi Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions left the coalition. And that’s before the expected departure of Shas in the coming days, which would see Bibi’s government drop down to a mere XX seats.
Before I dive into what this means for Israel, let’s recap the past day’s events.
As I wrote yesterday, Degel HaTorah was expected to withdraw from the coalition within XX hours if a draft of the conscription law was not submitted. And although they were indeed presented with a new bill, they were far from satisfied with it, leading to their, and Agudat Yisrael’s, resignation.
They even went on the offensive, with today’s front page of the Degel HaTorah-linked Yated Ne’eman newspaper accusing Netanyahu of once again trying to deceive the ultra-Orthodox.
Important side note: The resignations take XX hours to come into effect, so there’s still time—at least in theory—for Netanyahu to prevent them from jumping ship.
And don’t forget: As I noted yesterday, even if the government loses its majority now, legislation to dissolve the Knesset takes time—and the parliamentary summer recess begins in XX days.
So, where to from here for the prime minister? While Netanyahu has managed to survive the summer without his government collapsing, he now faces the real threat of his coalition falling apart after the Knesset recess ends on October 19, which would send Israel to elections in January 2026.
But there’s still a way back. Despite their anger with the government, the ultra-Orthodox parties—very aware that they’re unlikely to find better allies in the opposition—are still hoping they can push through a law exempting yeshiva students from IDF service.
They’ve been consistently blocked, however, by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Yuli Edelstein, who refuses to bend to their will, angering the Haredim with demands in the current bill such as the requirement for yeshiva students to give fingerprint scans to verify that they are actually studying in yeshiva.
Unfortunately, the saga doesn’t end there. Thanks to the twisted reality in which Israelis live, all of this is unfolding as the Jewish state mourns three soldiers who were killed in northern Gaza yesterday.
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XXXXXX engagements
