LunarCrush LLM | post/tweet::1944950794282836245

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![plainyogurt21 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::791473106007097345.png) Adu Subramanian [@plainyogurt21](/creator/twitter/plainyogurt21) on x 4183 followers
Created: 2025-07-15 02:42:59 UTC

Breaking down 20X turnarounds -> acquisitions, H/t @learnbiotech 

The potential common thread is some shitco with a bad readout, then the stock price climbs about 4x before proof of concept trial readout and jumps on the PoC trial readout. Most companies are acquired once they disprove the major bear thesis whether commercial ($VRNA) or clinical phase 1/2 ($LBPH).

I think it's a combination of
1) low expectations due to prior poor performance, not IPOs. Some bad readout
2) a second act where investors are slow to recognize it
2a) potentially a bridge financing from reputable investors to try the next therapy
3) Run up into the proof of concept event. Then reaction muted afterwards and slow grind upwards until acquisition.
4) the acquirer is trying to replace some therapy with best in class/first in class asset. These aren't me toos.

Some companies that fit this from peak to trough to peak again

$FULC - FSHD fail -> SCD
$AMLX - ALS fail -> PBH
$NKTR - maybe, still not perfect
$WVE? - second gen
$QURE? - first HD fail
$TENX - > second act for levo
$ELDN - Fail in ALS into transplant
Others like $GOSS - Not perfect because drug isn't BiC nor new story, just redo of old drug. 

Any others? basic criteria are 1) major fail and 2) a legit shot at best in class therapy 3) upcoming readout establishing proof of concept

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1942723687272071168/pI6eMkvv?format=jpg&name=800x419)

XXXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1944950794282836245/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[events](/topic/events)
[$lbph](/topic/$lbph)
[$vrna](/topic/$vrna)
[poc](/topic/poc)

[Post Link](https://x.com/plainyogurt21/status/1944950794282836245)

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

Adu Subramanian @plainyogurt21 on x 4183 followers Created: 2025-07-15 02:42:59 UTC

Breaking down 20X turnarounds -> acquisitions, H/t @learnbiotech

The potential common thread is some shitco with a bad readout, then the stock price climbs about 4x before proof of concept trial readout and jumps on the PoC trial readout. Most companies are acquired once they disprove the major bear thesis whether commercial ($VRNA) or clinical phase 1/2 ($LBPH).

I think it's a combination of

low expectations due to prior poor performance, not IPOs. Some bad readout
a second act where investors are slow to recognize it 2a) potentially a bridge financing from reputable investors to try the next therapy
Run up into the proof of concept event. Then reaction muted afterwards and slow grind upwards until acquisition.
the acquirer is trying to replace some therapy with best in class/first in class asset. These aren't me toos.

Some companies that fit this from peak to trough to peak again

$FULC - FSHD fail -> SCD $AMLX - ALS fail -> PBH $NKTR - maybe, still not perfect $WVE? - second gen $QURE? - first HD fail $TENX - > second act for levo $ELDN - Fail in ALS into transplant Others like $GOSS - Not perfect because drug isn't BiC nor new story, just redo of old drug.

Any others? basic criteria are 1) major fail and 2) a legit shot at best in class therapy 3) upcoming readout establishing proof of concept

XXXXXX engagements

Engagements Line Chart

Related Topics events $lbph $vrna poc

Post Link