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![TomSilver39 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1330741110.png) Tom Silver [@TomSilver39](/creator/twitter/TomSilver39) on x 9513 followers
Created: 2025-07-14 23:50:18 UTC

WF:" #Biotech Breaking the Billion: Predicting Blockbuster Trajectories For Drug Revenues: Spanning the nine therapeutic areas we analyzed, early revenue milestones—typically $100MM-$300MM/Q by Q4-Q10—strongly predict future blockbuster status. Hitting up to $250MM by Q7 was a consistent signal with an 86-100% probability of reaching $1B/year within 3-5 years of launch. For mega blockbusters, our analysis indicates reaching $750MM/Q by Q13 is a reliable predictor of achieving $5B/year within X years of launch;  categorized  blockbuster drugs by therapeutic area:
Oncology (n=21)
Immunology (n=11)
Rare disease (n=10)
Vaccines/Infectious disease (n=10)
Metabolic disease (n=8)
Neurology (n=4)
Cardiovascular (n=2)
Respiratory (n=1)
Ophthalmology (n=1) ..."

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**Related Topics**
[mega](/topic/mega)
[$1byear](/topic/$1byear)
[$250mm](/topic/$250mm)
[$300mmq](/topic/$300mmq)
[$100mm](/topic/$100mm)

[Post Link](https://x.com/TomSilver39/status/1944907336965087698)