[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  DonCorleone77 [@CorleoneDon77](/creator/twitter/CorleoneDon77) on x 5293 followers Created: 2025-07-14 20:33:55 UTC $CLF Attached is page X of a 13-page J.P. Morgan analyst report on CLF issued today entitled: "Moving to a Neutral Rating and a $XXXX Price Target from Not Rated" J.P. Morgan has a 'Neutral' rating on CLF with a $XXXX price target. J.P. Morgan’s summary statement regarding CLF in the report includes the following: "We are moving to a Neutral rating and a Dec-25 price target of $XXXX (Neutral rating and $XX Dec-24 PT prior to restriction) from a Not Rated designation. Our rating reflects what we view as a relatively balanced risk/reward backdrop, with trade-related news likely to drive stock moves. On the positives, protectionism has supported a higher price floor at profitable levels for CLF’s core footprint. Management is also shutting loss-making assets, which together with lower coal contract pricing kicking in, should drive meaningful cost savings starting in 3Q. On the negatives, Brazilian slab prices continue to track at multi-year lows, which bodes poorly for the Calvert slab agreement (expires Dec’25). It will also take time for auto capacity to reshore, and while reports of latent domestic capacity ramps are positive, S&P Global Mobility still forecasts 2H US LV production -X% vs. 1H (or -X% Y/Y). Taken together, we model a pivot to modest FCF generation in 2H which can start to chip away at elevated debt levels. Over the longer term, though, we see potential challenges for the company’s core auto exposure and feel further structural cost-downs will be necessary to stay competitive in the meantime. Into the print (see our 2Q NA Steel Preview – link), we see downside risk to 2Q estimates (JPMe -$68M vs. BBG -$22M), but feel investor expectations are already low, with greater focus on 3Q cost guidance. Given N-T risks, ongoing trade uncertainty and recent outperformance, we’d look for a better entry point. -- Valuation: For valuation, we use a 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple based on our estimates to arrive at a firm value. We then adjust for balance sheet items, including minority interest and underfunded pension, to arrive at an equity valuation and our Dec 2025 price target of $7.50/ share. For Cliffs, we use a 6.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple, which is a premium to its ~5.5x historical avg. (~6.0x 1yr avg.). We assign a slight premium given protectionism lending to higher through-cycle-profitability for US-based mills, along with national security backing from the Trump administration. However, this is a 1.5x discount to the 8.0x used for mini-mill peers given CLF’s debt load and less product diversification. -- Risks to Rating and Price Target - Key downside risks to our Neutral rating include: • Falling steel prices from worse-than-expected demand amid a tough macroeconomic backdrop and/or new supply flooding the NA market. • Growing competition within the exposed/HSS auto market. • Potential carbon-related price or tax impacts from accelerated focus on carbon emissions. This could be especially trying for integrated mills, which traditionally have been more carbon intensive relative to EAFs. • Execution issues at its operations, which could result in unplanned downtime, reduced efficiencies, and/or potential cost headwinds. • A negative change in trade policy (i.e. S232), which could invite cheap imports and result in a lower pricing floor for domestic steel than seen in recent years. - Key upside risks to our Neutral rating include: • Significantly rising scrap/metallics costs squeezing margins for mini-mill peers, lending to a relative cost advantage from the company’s vertical integration. • Continued progress in reducing the size of its debt obligations, which could remove a key overhang on shares. • Rising steel prices from delays in new supply ramping, resulting in greater FCF generation. • Quicker-than-expected reshoring of auto production, driving improved demand for the company’s main end market and lending to greater utilization/fixed-cost absorption. • Improved demand/pricing in Canada, potentially from a tariff reprieve, lending to greater profitability at STLC with its industry-leading cost structure." (Page X is not available here as X does not allow me to post pages from reports on this platform) XXX engagements  **Related Topics** [$clf](/topic/$clf) [stocks basic materials](/topic/stocks-basic-materials) [jpmorgan chase](/topic/jpmorgan-chase) [stocks financial services](/topic/stocks-financial-services) [stocks banks](/topic/stocks-banks) [Post Link](https://x.com/CorleoneDon77/status/1944857917552771504)
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DonCorleone77 @CorleoneDon77 on x 5293 followers
Created: 2025-07-14 20:33:55 UTC
$CLF
Attached is page X of a 13-page J.P. Morgan analyst report on CLF issued today entitled:
"Moving to a Neutral Rating and a $XXXX Price Target from Not Rated"
J.P. Morgan has a 'Neutral' rating on CLF with a $XXXX price target.
J.P. Morgan’s summary statement regarding CLF in the report includes the following:
"We are moving to a Neutral rating and a Dec-25 price target of $XXXX (Neutral rating and $XX Dec-24 PT prior to restriction) from a Not Rated designation. Our rating reflects what we view as a relatively balanced risk/reward backdrop, with trade-related news likely to drive stock moves. On the positives, protectionism has supported a higher price floor at profitable levels for CLF’s core footprint.
Management is also shutting loss-making assets, which together with lower coal contract pricing kicking in, should drive meaningful cost savings starting in 3Q. On the negatives, Brazilian slab prices continue to track at multi-year lows, which bodes poorly for the Calvert slab agreement (expires Dec’25).
It will also take time for auto capacity to reshore, and while reports of latent domestic capacity ramps are positive, S&P Global Mobility still forecasts 2H US LV production -X% vs. 1H (or -X% Y/Y). Taken together, we model a pivot to modest FCF generation in 2H which can start to chip away at elevated debt levels.
Over the longer term, though, we see potential challenges for the company’s core auto exposure and feel further structural cost-downs will be necessary to stay competitive in the meantime. Into the print (see our 2Q NA Steel Preview – link), we see downside risk to 2Q estimates (JPMe -$68M vs. BBG -$22M), but feel investor expectations are already low, with greater focus on 3Q cost guidance.
Given N-T risks, ongoing trade uncertainty and recent outperformance, we’d look for a better entry point.
-- Valuation:
For valuation, we use a 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple based on our estimates to arrive at a firm value. We then adjust for balance sheet items, including minority interest and underfunded pension, to arrive at an equity valuation and our Dec 2025 price target of $7.50/ share.
For Cliffs, we use a 6.5x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple, which is a premium to its 5.5x historical avg. (6.0x 1yr avg.). We assign a slight premium given protectionism lending to higher through-cycle-profitability for US-based mills, along with national security backing from the Trump administration. However, this is a 1.5x discount to the 8.0x used for mini-mill peers given CLF’s debt load and less product diversification.
-- Risks to Rating and Price Target
- Key downside risks to our Neutral rating include:
• Falling steel prices from worse-than-expected demand amid a tough macroeconomic backdrop and/or new supply flooding the NA market. • Growing competition within the exposed/HSS auto market. • Potential carbon-related price or tax impacts from accelerated focus on carbon emissions. This could be especially trying for integrated mills, which traditionally have been more carbon intensive relative to EAFs. • Execution issues at its operations, which could result in unplanned downtime, reduced efficiencies, and/or potential cost headwinds. • A negative change in trade policy (i.e. S232), which could invite cheap imports and result in a lower pricing floor for domestic steel than seen in recent years.
- Key upside risks to our Neutral rating include:
• Significantly rising scrap/metallics costs squeezing margins for mini-mill peers, lending to a relative cost advantage from the company’s vertical integration. • Continued progress in reducing the size of its debt obligations, which could remove a key overhang on shares. • Rising steel prices from delays in new supply ramping, resulting in greater FCF generation. • Quicker-than-expected reshoring of auto production, driving improved demand for the company’s main end market and lending to greater utilization/fixed-cost absorption. • Improved demand/pricing in Canada, potentially from a tariff reprieve, lending to greater profitability at STLC with its industry-leading cost structure."
(Page X is not available here as X does not allow me to post pages from reports on this platform)
XXX engagements
Related Topics $clf stocks basic materials jpmorgan chase stocks financial services stocks banks