[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

![CorleoneDon77 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1577382889104318472.png) DonCorleone77 [@CorleoneDon77](/creator/twitter/CorleoneDon77) on x 5395 followers
Created: 2025-07-14 20:21:53 UTC

$AZN

Attached is page X of a 7-page Bank of America analyst report on AZN issued today entitled:

"Baxdrostat hits in hypertension PIII trial, detailed data at ESC in August"

Bank of America has a 'Buy' rating on AZN with a $XXXXX GBp (US$91.70) price target.

Bank of America’s summary statement regarding AZN in the report includes the following:

"Baxdrostat hits in PIII BaxHTN monotherapy trial:

AZN released positive headline data today for its PIII BaxHTN trial of baxdrostat (ASI) monotherapy in resistant/uncontrolled hypertension (HTN). BaxHTN met primary endpoint of seated SBP vs placebo at XX weeks for both 1mg/2mg QD dose arms and was well tolerated in patients with uncontrolled/resistant HTN. 

AZN notes statistically significant and clinically meaningful SBP reduction, potentially close to PII & competitor MLYS (we believe signals high-sd SBP reduction). No mention of hyperkalaemia a positive. We see a large c$70bn US addressable opportunity (with global opportunity offering further upside) and model a $2.3bn peak sales opportunity for monotherapy setting, risk adjusted to $1.8bn with a possible launch in 26/27E. 

We also model c$1.8bn risk-adjusted peak sales for Farxiga lifecycle management indications, with some of this coming from Baxdrostat + Farxiga combo studies in CKD + HTN (data 27-28E, Ctgov). We see our estimates as above cons total of c$2bn across both mono/combo settings, and note AZN has guided to $5bn+ sales potential of which mono ≥ 50%, implying mid-sd EPS upside to cons. 

While positive Bax data is important, key PIII reads remain Dato AVANZAR in 1L NSCLC 4Q25 & Camizestrant SERENA-4 in 1H26.

We assume large $70bn US market but low penetration:

We note c120m hypertensive in the US (140/90 mmHg), with c10m remaining so despite being on 3+ therapies (resistant hypertension). Assuming pricing broadly in line with PCSK9 (c$7k per year estimated, with PCSK9 a proxy given similarities in commercial landscape with a heavily genericised market with a multitude of products in development), this points to a c$70bn US opportunity, with a global opportunity potential bigger still. 

However, we assume low penetration with it difficult to predict given:

1) Genericised market, with multiple assets in development, with apparent limited differentiation at this stage (see our sector binaries note); 
2) Physician education in adding a branded agent as a “4th” therapy in a heavily genericised market; 
3) Defining true resistant hypertension vs poor compliance or inadequate therapy may be difficult.

-- Price objective basis:

Our PO of GBP145 (US$91.70) is based on 18x FY26E P/E, ahead of our target sector multiple of c16x due to potential for premium growth (13% 26-29E EPS CAGR vs sector c8%) and significant pipeline optionality. 

Our target sector multiple of c16x 26E PE is based on: 

1) A c14% premium to the market average multiple which implies c14x 26E PE, a premium which is in line with the long-term historical average for the sector, 
2) Regression analysis of historical sector forward PEs and three-year-forward EPS CAGR implies a target PE of c16x 26E PE based on sector growth of c8% Upside risks to our PO are better-than-expected EPS momentum driven by better execution on product launches and pipeline success. 

-- Downside risks to our PO are:

Pipeline failure, risk of litigation, adverse currency moves, greater margin pressure driving EPS miss and a failure to inflect key product launches."

(Page X is not available here as X does not allow me to post pages from reports on this platform)


XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1944854885729808634/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[british pound sterling](/topic/british-pound-sterling)
[manat](/topic/manat)
[united states](/topic/united-states)
[bank of](/topic/bank-of)
[$azn](/topic/$azn)
[stocks healthcare](/topic/stocks-healthcare)
[bank of america](/topic/bank-of-america)
[stocks financial services](/topic/stocks-financial-services)

[Post Link](https://x.com/CorleoneDon77/status/1944854885729808634)