[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Killa [@KillaXBT](/creator/twitter/KillaXBT) on x 17.4K followers Created: 2025-07-14 09:58:01 UTC $BTC | I sold 50%. The question is why? First, some context: I bought my $BTC back in 2023 around $30K, and added more on the dips at $54K and $80K to maximize gains in what has remained a bull market. Having been in the market for six years, I’ve learned some hard lessons—chief among them is that greed often leads to exiting positions too late. With that in mind, I’d rather exit early than too late. Sure, I could miss out on some additional upside, but I refuse to stay trapped in the mindset of always calling for higher when macro indicators on the weekly and monthly timeframes are starting to shift. I fully recognize we’re in a blow-off top phase, and the market can stay irrational longer than most expect. That’s exactly why I haven’t posted any shorts or new longs—I’ve mostly been sitting on my hands, letting the remainder of my spot holdings work passively. Last cycle, I made the mistake of trying to time everything perfectly. This cycle, I’m not aiming for perfection. I’m simply looking to exit where I believe the price is approaching a top based on macro signals. Yes, BTC could still extend toward 140–150K—but it could also drop XX% in a single candle. That’s a risk I’m unwilling to take, sacrificing realized profits for what I believe would be the last marginal gains of this cycle. We’ve had a fantastic run. But based on my analysis, people consistently underestimate the strength of the dollar. Hedge funds and investors are buying BTC in anticipation of an inevitable fiat collapse, which could eventually lead to a true supercycle. However, timing the decline of the USD is close to impossible. The pattern has been clear: prolonged periods of printing, followed by global liquidity tightening as the dollar strengthens. At the moment, the USD is sitting on a 13-year trendline. We could still retest the XX region in the coming months before liquidity meaningfully contracts. When that happens, it will likely have an immediate impact on BTC’s price. Smart players scale out gradually—they don’t wait until it’s too late. From a macro perspective on the weekly and monthly charts, BTC’s upside appears limited unless the USD collapses, which, again, is unpredictable. If the DXY follows the same pattern we’ve seen since 2012, BTC will eventually retrace—potentially with a 50–60% correction. I trade based on the information in front of me, not the speculation that “this cycle is different.” One day, it will be—but that’s impossible to predict with any precision. Just because I’m cautious and slightly bearish on the HTF doesn’t mean I’m blindly shorting every move. I’m not stupid. I’ll wait for HTF shifts and confirmations before considering any swing shorts. But as you know, this is X—people love to assume otherwise. When I start shorting, you’ll know. Now is not that time. My priority is capital preservation above all else. I see the dynamics gradually shifting, and that’s my cue to begin scaling out. I won’t be a permanent bull just to drive engagement. Hopefully this gives you a clear picture of my outlook and expectations. As always, I can be wrong and invalidated—but most importantly, I will never deviate from my plan. It’s not bias; it’s the foundation of my strategy. Every time I’ve strayed from that, I’ve lost. If you found this post helpful, please drop a like. Took quite a while to put together this chart.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [positions](/topic/positions) [$80k](/topic/$80k) [$54k](/topic/$54k) [$30k](/topic/$30k) [$btc](/topic/$btc) [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) [coins layer 1](/topic/coins-layer-1) [coins bitcoin ecosystem](/topic/coins-bitcoin-ecosystem) [Post Link](https://x.com/KillaXBT/status/1944697886446375415)
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Killa @KillaXBT on x 17.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-14 09:58:01 UTC
$BTC | I sold 50%. The question is why?
First, some context: I bought my $BTC back in 2023 around $30K, and added more on the dips at $54K and $80K to maximize gains in what has remained a bull market. Having been in the market for six years, I’ve learned some hard lessons—chief among them is that greed often leads to exiting positions too late.
With that in mind, I’d rather exit early than too late. Sure, I could miss out on some additional upside, but I refuse to stay trapped in the mindset of always calling for higher when macro indicators on the weekly and monthly timeframes are starting to shift. I fully recognize we’re in a blow-off top phase, and the market can stay irrational longer than most expect. That’s exactly why I haven’t posted any shorts or new longs—I’ve mostly been sitting on my hands, letting the remainder of my spot holdings work passively.
Last cycle, I made the mistake of trying to time everything perfectly. This cycle, I’m not aiming for perfection. I’m simply looking to exit where I believe the price is approaching a top based on macro signals. Yes, BTC could still extend toward 140–150K—but it could also drop XX% in a single candle. That’s a risk I’m unwilling to take, sacrificing realized profits for what I believe would be the last marginal gains of this cycle.
We’ve had a fantastic run. But based on my analysis, people consistently underestimate the strength of the dollar. Hedge funds and investors are buying BTC in anticipation of an inevitable fiat collapse, which could eventually lead to a true supercycle. However, timing the decline of the USD is close to impossible. The pattern has been clear: prolonged periods of printing, followed by global liquidity tightening as the dollar strengthens.
At the moment, the USD is sitting on a 13-year trendline. We could still retest the XX region in the coming months before liquidity meaningfully contracts. When that happens, it will likely have an immediate impact on BTC’s price. Smart players scale out gradually—they don’t wait until it’s too late.
From a macro perspective on the weekly and monthly charts, BTC’s upside appears limited unless the USD collapses, which, again, is unpredictable. If the DXY follows the same pattern we’ve seen since 2012, BTC will eventually retrace—potentially with a 50–60% correction.
I trade based on the information in front of me, not the speculation that “this cycle is different.” One day, it will be—but that’s impossible to predict with any precision.
Just because I’m cautious and slightly bearish on the HTF doesn’t mean I’m blindly shorting every move. I’m not stupid. I’ll wait for HTF shifts and confirmations before considering any swing shorts. But as you know, this is X—people love to assume otherwise. When I start shorting, you’ll know. Now is not that time. My priority is capital preservation above all else.
I see the dynamics gradually shifting, and that’s my cue to begin scaling out. I won’t be a permanent bull just to drive engagement.
Hopefully this gives you a clear picture of my outlook and expectations. As always, I can be wrong and invalidated—but most importantly, I will never deviate from my plan. It’s not bias; it’s the foundation of my strategy. Every time I’ve strayed from that, I’ve lost.
If you found this post helpful, please drop a like. Took quite a while to put together this chart.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics positions $80k $54k $30k $btc bitcoin coins layer 1 coins bitcoin ecosystem