[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Axel Bitblaze 🪓 [@Axel_bitblaze69](/creator/twitter/Axel_bitblaze69) on x 126.9K followers Created: 2025-07-12 13:44:09 UTC 2/ My thoughts on whether $4B valuation for even justified ? Let’s strip away the hype and look at the numbers: Pumpdotfun raised $1.32B, targeting a $4B FDV, all off a meme launchpad that: - Peaked at $137M/month revenue back in Feb - Is now doing ~$16M/month - Has XX% of tokens launched ending worthless in <3 days - And is still heavily reliant on memecoin rotation, which is cooling down fast If you’re valuing this like an actual business.. that’s a massive disconnect. At $16M/month, annualized rev = ~$192M Which means: 21x revenue multiple at current run rate. And that’s assuming revenue doesn’t fall further.. which it might, given declining volume, lower daily mints, and rising competition from LetsBONK, SunPump, etc. For context: - $Blur was doing ~$40M/month at its peak, valued way lower - peaked at $15M/month and never even reached unicorn status - And most token launches in this cycle haven’t dared to ask for $4B.. unless they had infra, serious tech, or a mega narrative. So no, on fundamentals alone, $4B FDV isn’t justified, imo. BUT and it’s a big but that this isn’t being valued on fundamentals. It’s a reflexive play: - People think revenue share = passive yield - CT hate is high = perfect setup for a “hated rally” - Institutions want meme exposure without touching shitcoins = is the "ETF" - And pre-market $PUMP is already trading above ICO price, so FOMO is real In other words: it’s overvalued... but still might pump. so my advice to you is; If you’re here for a quick flip, the hype could carry it short-term But if you’re holding for the long term hoping this becomes the “Coinbase of memecoins” good luck, anon The valuation makes sense only if reflexivity holds and revenue stabilizes or grows. Otherwise, it’s a $4B musical chair game, and chairs are disappearing fast. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [memecoin](/topic/memecoin) [$16mmonth](/topic/$16mmonth) [$137mmonth](/topic/$137mmonth) [launchpad](/topic/launchpad) [$132b](/topic/$132b) [pumpdotfun](/topic/pumpdotfun) [$4b](/topic/$4b) [Post Link](https://x.com/Axel_bitblaze69/status/1944030019765916104)
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Axel Bitblaze 🪓 @Axel_bitblaze69 on x 126.9K followers
Created: 2025-07-12 13:44:09 UTC
2/
My thoughts on whether $4B valuation for even justified ?
Let’s strip away the hype and look at the numbers:
Pumpdotfun raised $1.32B, targeting a $4B FDV, all off a meme launchpad that:
- Peaked at $137M/month revenue back in Feb
- Is now doing ~$16M/month
- Has XX% of tokens launched ending worthless in <3 days
- And is still heavily reliant on memecoin rotation, which is cooling down fast
If you’re valuing this like an actual business.. that’s a massive disconnect.
At $16M/month, annualized rev = ~$192M
Which means: 21x revenue multiple at current run rate. And that’s assuming revenue doesn’t fall further.. which it might, given declining volume, lower daily mints, and rising competition from LetsBONK, SunPump, etc.
For context:
- $Blur was doing ~$40M/month at its peak, valued way lower
- peaked at $15M/month and never even reached unicorn status
- And most token launches in this cycle haven’t dared to ask for $4B.. unless they had infra, serious tech, or a mega narrative.
So no, on fundamentals alone, $4B FDV isn’t justified, imo. BUT and it’s a big but that this isn’t being valued on fundamentals. It’s a reflexive play:
- People think revenue share = passive yield
- CT hate is high = perfect setup for a “hated rally”
- Institutions want meme exposure without touching shitcoins = is the "ETF"
- And pre-market $PUMP is already trading above ICO price, so FOMO is real
In other words: it’s overvalued... but still might pump.
so my advice to you is;
If you’re here for a quick flip, the hype could carry it short-term
But if you’re holding for the long term hoping this becomes the “Coinbase of memecoins” good luck, anon
The valuation makes sense only if reflexivity holds and revenue stabilizes or grows. Otherwise, it’s a $4B musical chair game, and chairs are disappearing fast.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics memecoin $16mmonth $137mmonth launchpad $132b pumpdotfun $4b