[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Ansem [@blknoiz06](/creator/twitter/blknoiz06) on x 746.4K followers Created: 2025-07-12 11:44:17 UTC copying this tweet from: @conzimp last christmas for context "we have had three legs up since market bottom end of 2022 1) jan23-mar23 2) oct23-mar24 3) aug5th-now each time we had a different basket of alts leading • first was stuff like injective, cfx, some ai coins, sol leg from 8->30 • second was led by stuff like solana, tao, hnt • third was led by sui, xrp, hbar, xlm dino coins, some defi stuff honestly think that the local highs are in for this third leg, which is why i said i think sui is a good short even tho it has been the best performer bc it has room to fall (up 10x in X months) parabolic altcoin uptrends typically do not last longer than 3-4 months if that, & historically alts do not make higher highs cycle to cycle except for the .1% top performers, feels to me that most were positioned in the wrong altcoins like i was & are now expecting an alt szn in Q1 when realistically it has already been happening in this scenario am most concerned for coins like celestia which had a large run up earlier (oct23-mar24) but did not really move on this most recent one and are now trading back at the lows, reason im concerned for these is bc they could play out like the old defi coins did in 2020 (sushi,uni, yfi & others) which made highs in feb/mar XX and then did nothing for the rest of the bull market and then went into a bear market with the rest of the coins when the market did top - rotations are really aggressive in crypto and attention shifts extremely quickly, especially since most altcoins do not have any revenue they just trade heavily on speculation which means the floors are just much lower re: bitcoin, saylor & ETFs were significant portion of bid side & saylor wont be bidding soon bc of blackout period and ETFs have been net selling recently, also Trump winning the election had meaningful impact on markets bc of what he has been saying about crypto and the possibility of the bitcoin reserve, inauguration i think ppl will be watching to see if he confirms anything that he's saying but thats not until Jan 20th i believe - am leaning towards local top being in until then & then re evaluating after, also am concerned with how hard altcoins got hit when bitcoin has barely sold off mostly think alts topped & only a few outliers do well - like sol & btc the most out of majors but Q1 supply unlocks currently getting priced in, still dont really see any reason for eth to outperform, inval for bearish thesis is 102k+ & 220+ still like hyperliquid a lot, think they have a lot of fundamental catalysts coming up with HyperEVM & likely other spot trading markets launching soon which will lead to more volumes more users more revenue, they are already making like ~$500M annualized while having much lower fees than all centralized exchanges, pretty crazy if you do the comparisons to how much coinbase makes & their net income when they are a much larger and established business w/ much larger team - but yea think hype probably continues to outperform if they continue delivering, short term sell pressure from airdrop recipients bc they are up a lot now and there wont be a lot of retail flow yet bc not on the major exchanges - actually am curious what they are going to do wrt marketing that since they have been so focused in product up until now chex is interesting rwa play w/ solid traction with real world partnerships and is valued much smaller than a lot of other coins fuel is in interesting spot new altVM L2 that just launched & is very cheap relative to others at like 200M as far as rest of 2025 not really sure yet, still think solana & bitcoin much higher, think sol flips eth, hyperliquid & ethena favorite liquid alts rn, nillion & atlas prolly the launches im most excited for whats interesting about 2025 is we are going to have a LOT of new infra launches all competing for attention so there should be a lot of active rotations to do on both long & short side ai x crypto bubble is going to be hilarious" XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [xlm](/topic/xlm) [hbar](/topic/hbar) [sui](/topic/sui) [hnt](/topic/hnt) [tao](/topic/tao) [sol](/topic/sol) [coins](/topic/coins) [coins ai](/topic/coins-ai) [Post Link](https://x.com/blknoiz06/status/1943999852435681420)
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Ansem @blknoiz06 on x 746.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-12 11:44:17 UTC
copying this tweet from: @conzimp last christmas for context
"we have had three legs up since market bottom end of 2022
jan23-mar23
oct23-mar24
aug5th-now
each time we had a different basket of alts leading
• first was stuff like injective, cfx, some ai coins, sol leg from 8->30
• second was led by stuff like solana, tao, hnt
• third was led by sui, xrp, hbar, xlm dino coins, some defi stuff
honestly think that the local highs are in for this third leg, which is why i said i think sui is a good short even tho it has been the best performer bc it has room to fall (up 10x in X months)
parabolic altcoin uptrends typically do not last longer than 3-4 months if that, & historically alts do not make higher highs cycle to cycle except for the .1% top performers, feels to me that most were positioned in the wrong altcoins like i was & are now expecting an alt szn in Q1 when realistically it has already been happening
in this scenario am most concerned for coins like celestia which had a large run up earlier (oct23-mar24) but did not really move on this most recent one and are now trading back at the lows, reason im concerned for these is bc they could play out like the old defi coins did in 2020 (sushi,uni, yfi & others) which made highs in feb/mar XX and then did nothing for the rest of the bull market and then went into a bear market with the rest of the coins when the market did top - rotations are really aggressive in crypto and attention shifts extremely quickly, especially since most altcoins do not have any revenue they just trade heavily on speculation which means the floors are just much lower
re: bitcoin, saylor & ETFs were significant portion of bid side & saylor wont be bidding soon bc of blackout period and ETFs have been net selling recently, also Trump winning the election had meaningful impact on markets bc of what he has been saying about crypto and the possibility of the bitcoin reserve, inauguration i think ppl will be watching to see if he confirms anything that he's saying but thats not until Jan 20th i believe - am leaning towards local top being in until then & then re evaluating after, also am concerned with how hard altcoins got hit when bitcoin has barely sold off
mostly think alts topped & only a few outliers do well - like sol & btc the most out of majors but Q1 supply unlocks currently getting priced in, still dont really see any reason for eth to outperform, inval for bearish thesis is 102k+ & 220+
still like hyperliquid a lot, think they have a lot of fundamental catalysts coming up with HyperEVM & likely other spot trading markets launching soon which will lead to more volumes more users more revenue, they are already making like ~$500M annualized while having much lower fees than all centralized exchanges, pretty crazy if you do the comparisons to how much coinbase makes & their net income when they are a much larger and established business w/ much larger team - but yea think hype probably continues to outperform if they continue delivering, short term sell pressure from airdrop recipients bc they are up a lot now and there wont be a lot of retail flow yet bc not on the major exchanges - actually am curious what they are going to do wrt marketing that since they have been so focused in product up until now
chex is interesting rwa play w/ solid traction with real world partnerships and is valued much smaller than a lot of other coins
fuel is in interesting spot new altVM L2 that just launched & is very cheap relative to others at like 200M
as far as rest of 2025 not really sure yet, still think solana & bitcoin much higher, think sol flips eth, hyperliquid & ethena favorite liquid alts rn, nillion & atlas prolly the launches im most excited for
whats interesting about 2025 is we are going to have a LOT of new infra launches all competing for attention so there should be a lot of active rotations to do on both long & short side
ai x crypto bubble is going to be hilarious"
XXXXXX engagements
