[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Pix🔎 [@PixOnChain](/creator/twitter/PixOnChain) on x 102.1K followers Created: 2025-07-12 11:21:18 UTC This is easily the best thing I've read this year I don’t trust memory with things like this, so I made a summary: People overestimate expected value. They think if the average outcome is good, they should keep betting. But when outcomes compound, the typical result matters more than the average. If you flip a coin that doubles your net worth or cuts it by 60%, the expected value is positive. But flip it enough, and you almost always go broke. The rare jackpots skew the average. This is the Jackpot Paradox. We’ve built a culture on it. Crypto, venture capital, and meme stocks all reward chasing jackpots. But most people don’t have edge - they have FOMO. They see someone win and assume they’re just one flip away. The real question is: what kind of wealth do you value? > Log preference: Play safe. Survive. Compound slowly. > Linear: Chase expected value. Big bets, big edge. > Exponential: Max out risk. Worship the jackpot. SBF and 3AC were exponential. It worked - until it didn’t. Most people imitate the winners, forgetting most winners were just lucky. If you want to survive, don’t maximize the average. > Maximize the median. > Build edge. > Avoid drawdowns. > Stay in the game. The dose makes the poison. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [compound](/topic/compound) [betting](/topic/betting) [Post Link](https://x.com/PixOnChain/status/1943994069698466209)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Pix🔎 @PixOnChain on x 102.1K followers
Created: 2025-07-12 11:21:18 UTC
This is easily the best thing I've read this year
I don’t trust memory with things like this, so I made a summary:
People overestimate expected value.
They think if the average outcome is good, they should keep betting.
But when outcomes compound, the typical result matters more than the average.
If you flip a coin that doubles your net worth or cuts it by 60%, the expected value is positive.
But flip it enough, and you almost always go broke.
The rare jackpots skew the average.
This is the Jackpot Paradox.
We’ve built a culture on it.
Crypto, venture capital, and meme stocks all reward chasing jackpots.
But most people don’t have edge - they have FOMO.
They see someone win and assume they’re just one flip away.
The real question is: what kind of wealth do you value?
Log preference: Play safe. Survive. Compound slowly. > Linear: Chase expected value. Big bets, big edge. Exponential: Max out risk. Worship the jackpot.
SBF and 3AC were exponential.
It worked - until it didn’t.
Most people imitate the winners, forgetting most winners were just lucky.
If you want to survive, don’t maximize the average.
Maximize the median. Build edge. Avoid drawdowns. Stay in the game.
The dose makes the poison.
XXXXXX engagements
