[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ [@DimitryNakhla](/creator/twitter/DimitryNakhla) on x 14.6K followers Created: 2025-07-11 16:48:31 UTC A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 19.32x โข10-Year Mean: 23.69x โขNTM FCF Yield: XXXX% โข10-Year Mean: XXXX% As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง *** Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business BALANCE SHEETโ โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $95.33B โขLong-Term Debt: $10.89B $GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 467x FFO Interest Coverage RETURN ON CAPITALโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX% RETURN ON EQUITYโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX% $GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business REVENUESโ โข2014: $66.00B โข2024: $350.02B โขCAGR: XXXXX% FREE CASH FLOWโ โข2014: $12.01B โข2024: $72.76B โขCAGR: XXXXX% NORMALIZED EPSโ โข2014: $XXXX โข2024: $XXXX โขCAGR: XXXXX% SHARE BUYBACKSโ โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.39B By reducing its shares outstanding ~12%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~13.6% (assuming X growth) MARGINSโ โขLTM Gross Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Operating Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Net Income Margins: XXXX% ***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a XXXX% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.66%) required growth rate: 2025E: $XXXX (19.5% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $XXXXX (6.3% YoY) 2027E: $XXXXX (13.1% YoY) 2028E: $XXXXX (17.4% YoY) $GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $GOOG ends 2028 with $XXXXX in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples 23x P/E: $312.11๐ต โฆ ~17.4% CAGR 22x P/E: $298.54๐ต โฆ ~15.9% CAGR 21x P/E: $284.97๐ต โฆ ~14.5% CAGR 20x P/E: $271.40๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR 19x P/E: $257.83๐ต โฆ ~11.2% CAGR As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean while assuming a lower 2028E) At >22x, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & itโs not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation) Today at $181๐ต $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment Between cloud โ๏ธ , AI ๐ค , quantum computing โ๏ธ, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead, with the potential for continued margin expansion serving as an additional tailwind $GOOGL ___ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [goog](/topic/goog) [earnings per](/topic/earnings-per) [quarterly earnings](/topic/quarterly-earnings) [$goog](/topic/$goog) [$googl](/topic/$googl) [stocks communication services](/topic/stocks-communication-services) [Post Link](https://x.com/DimitryNakhla/status/1943714028498620532)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ @DimitryNakhla on x 14.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-11 16:48:31 UTC
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 19.32x โข10-Year Mean: 23.69x
โขNTM FCF Yield: XXXX% โข10-Year Mean: XXXX%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $95.33B โขLong-Term Debt: $10.89B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 467x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ โข2014: $66.00B โข2024: $350.02B โขCAGR: XXXXX%
FREE CASH FLOWโ โข2014: $12.01B โข2024: $72.76B โขCAGR: XXXXX%
NORMALIZED EPSโ โข2014: $XXXX โข2024: $XXXX โขCAGR: XXXXX%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.39B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~12%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~13.6% (assuming X growth)
MARGINSโ โขLTM Gross Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Operating Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Net Income Margins: XXXX%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a XXXX% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.66%) required growth rate:
2025E: $XXXX (19.5% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $XXXXX (6.3% YoY) 2027E: $XXXXX (13.1% YoY) 2028E: $XXXXX (17.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $GOOG ends 2028 with $XXXXX in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $312.11๐ต โฆ ~17.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $298.54๐ต โฆ ~15.9% CAGR
21x P/E: $284.97๐ต โฆ ~14.5% CAGR
20x P/E: $271.40๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
19x P/E: $257.83๐ต โฆ ~11.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean while assuming a lower 2028E)
At >22x, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & itโs not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $181๐ต $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
Between cloud โ๏ธ , AI ๐ค , quantum computing โ๏ธ, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead, with the potential for continued margin expansion serving as an additional tailwind
$GOOGL
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics goog earnings per quarterly earnings $goog $googl stocks communication services
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