[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Wall St Engine [@wallstengine](/creator/twitter/wallstengine) on x 71.5K followers Created: 2025-07-11 15:00:10 UTC $REAX as a rate-cut growth play—The Real Brokerage is the only cloud-native U.S. residential brokerage compounding ≥70 % inside a frozen housing market. It’s probably on track for its first-ever GAAP breakeven next quarter, while EBITDA, operating cash-flow, and free cash-flow are already positive. The Real Brokerage is a cloud-native real-estate platform that recruits agents onto a mobile workspace instead of renting storefronts. Agents pay the company XX % of every commission until they have remitted roughly $XX XXX for the year; after that they keep XXX % and Real collects a flat about-$225 fee per closing. That structure lets Real scale without the fixed overhead that weighs on traditional brokers, while an equity-and-revenue-share program turns agents into recruiters and owners. Explosive share gains in a down market. In 1Q XX the U.S. existing-home market was basically flat, yet Real’s closings jumped XX % to XX XXX and its national share doubled to roughly X %. Agent count rose XX % to XX XXX Positive cash metrics ahead of GAAP breakeven. The same quarter produced $XXX million in adjusted EBITDA, $XX million of operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, even though gross margin was only XXX %. Street models show the first clean GAAP breakeven arriving in Q2. Ancillary runway. Title, mortgage and Wallet combined were still well under X % of revenue but are growing quickly; a wider rollout could add high-margin dollars and lift EBITDA another point or two over the next XX months. Transaction growth is outrunning revenue growth because top producers cap out early—12 % of agents already generate half of brokerage revenue. Once Real finishes its land-grab it can raise the cap, bump the post-cap fee, or introduce paid AI tools. Each 100-basis-point lift in take-rate is worth roughly $10-12 million in gross profit—enough to swing the whole P&L in a flat sales year. Catalysts in plain sight Q2 print (early August): management is guiding to the first GAAP-break-even quarter; a clean beat would confirm operating leverage. Flyhomes consumer portal (2H 25): plugs a Zillow-level search front-end and a “buy-before-you-sell” financing product into Real’s funnel, boosting higher-margin mortgage attach. Rate cuts: every 50-bp move down in the 30-year historically lifts existing-home sales 6-10 % within a year. If the Fed starts easing this fall, Real’s volume should accelerate almost linearly. ROTH’s target is $XXXX and B. Riley just initiated at $7, against a sub-$4.50 print today and a multiple barely XXX × forward sales. Risk Reward: A growth miss would be painful—the market pays up only as long as agent adds stay north of XX % and transactions beat the macro tape. But continued execution for two or three more years can plausibly move the stock three- to five-fold: higher volumes on a lower-rate backdrop, modest pricing tweaks, and even single-digit EBITDA margins on a business that is already free-cash-flow positive. Real is less exposed to mortgage-spread swings than Rocket, less dependent on ad cycles than Zillow, and avoids the balance-sheet baggage that hamstrung Redfin’s iBuying pivot. As long as management keeps proving the model every quarter, the market’s reluctance to value a tech-driven brokerage above X × sales looks like the real anomaly. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [housing market](/topic/housing-market) [$reax](/topic/$reax) [Post Link](https://x.com/wallstengine/status/1943686760267231615)
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Wall St Engine @wallstengine on x 71.5K followers
Created: 2025-07-11 15:00:10 UTC
$REAX as a rate-cut growth play—The Real Brokerage is the only cloud-native U.S. residential brokerage compounding ≥70 % inside a frozen housing market.
It’s probably on track for its first-ever GAAP breakeven next quarter, while EBITDA, operating cash-flow, and free cash-flow are already positive.
The Real Brokerage is a cloud-native real-estate platform that recruits agents onto a mobile workspace instead of renting storefronts. Agents pay the company XX % of every commission until they have remitted roughly $XX XXX for the year; after that they keep XXX % and Real collects a flat about-$225 fee per closing. That structure lets Real scale without the fixed overhead that weighs on traditional brokers, while an equity-and-revenue-share program turns agents into recruiters and owners.
Explosive share gains in a down market. In 1Q XX the U.S. existing-home market was basically flat, yet Real’s closings jumped XX % to XX XXX and its national share doubled to roughly X %. Agent count rose XX % to XX XXX
Positive cash metrics ahead of GAAP breakeven. The same quarter produced $XXX million in adjusted EBITDA, $XX million of operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, even though gross margin was only XXX %. Street models show the first clean GAAP breakeven arriving in Q2.
Ancillary runway. Title, mortgage and Wallet combined were still well under X % of revenue but are growing quickly; a wider rollout could add high-margin dollars and lift EBITDA another point or two over the next XX months.
Transaction growth is outrunning revenue growth because top producers cap out early—12 % of agents already generate half of brokerage revenue. Once Real finishes its land-grab it can raise the cap, bump the post-cap fee, or introduce paid AI tools. Each 100-basis-point lift in take-rate is worth roughly $10-12 million in gross profit—enough to swing the whole P&L in a flat sales year.
Catalysts in plain sight
Q2 print (early August): management is guiding to the first GAAP-break-even quarter; a clean beat would confirm operating leverage.
Flyhomes consumer portal (2H 25): plugs a Zillow-level search front-end and a “buy-before-you-sell” financing product into Real’s funnel, boosting higher-margin mortgage attach.
Rate cuts: every 50-bp move down in the 30-year historically lifts existing-home sales 6-10 % within a year. If the Fed starts easing this fall, Real’s volume should accelerate almost linearly.
ROTH’s target is $XXXX and B. Riley just initiated at $7, against a sub-$4.50 print today and a multiple barely XXX × forward sales.
Risk Reward:
A growth miss would be painful—the market pays up only as long as agent adds stay north of XX % and transactions beat the macro tape. But continued execution for two or three more years can plausibly move the stock three- to five-fold: higher volumes on a lower-rate backdrop, modest pricing tweaks, and even single-digit EBITDA margins on a business that is already free-cash-flow positive.
Real is less exposed to mortgage-spread swings than Rocket, less dependent on ad cycles than Zillow, and avoids the balance-sheet baggage that hamstrung Redfin’s iBuying pivot. As long as management keeps proving the model every quarter, the market’s reluctance to value a tech-driven brokerage above X × sales looks like the real anomaly.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics housing market $reax