[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Wall St Engine [@wallstengine](/creator/twitter/wallstengine) on x 73.2K followers Created: 2025-07-10 11:39:32 UTC CRUISE: BERNSTEIN REITERATES LONG-TERM PREFERENCE FOR $RCL AMID ROBUST JULY PRICING TRENDS. "Our July cruise pricing data shows another month of robust cruise price growth. At Royal Caribbean (RCL), prices including the mix towards the new Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel ships were up 6.9%, continuing high single-digit year-over-year price growth from May and June. Like-for-like pricing was also strong, up X% in July, only a slight slowdown from May and June, and a strong rebound from small 'Liberation Day' driven declines in April. European pricing was a bright spot, up well into the double digits year-over-year, while the core markets of the Caribbean and Bahamas saw steady mid to low single-digit price growth. Cumulatively this should paint a rosy picture for RCL’s upcoming Q2 reporting, but the recent run-up in cruise share prices likely limits the upside from short-term demand strength, with a beat on yields now priced in, while cost guidance into Q3 could add some noise. Despite less short-term upside, we retain our long-term preference for RCL as the best way to play a strong structural outlook for cruise, with the company set to deliver high teens EPS growth at a mid-teens multiple, and with a best-in-class margin and ROIC profile. Mea Culpa – Some changes to our data. Prior pricing data had not reflected new ‘Honest Pricing’ regulation with advertised prices including taxes and fees from July 2024, meaning we saw a step-up in prices from when the law was implemented. We revise historical pricing data to reflect this, with the data now more closely aligning with reported yield data – despite the changes we retain the same conclusion, that robust year-over-year pricing indicates continued demand strength. There would be no change to our prior month-over-month conclusions. Pricing was broad-based, but Celebrity particularly strong. Company-wide pricing growth of XXX% year-over-year was driven by XXX% growth at Royal Caribbean (+1.2% ex-Star of the Seas price accretion), and an impressive XXXX% growth at Celebrity (+10.8% ex-Celebrity Xcel price accretion). This likely reflects strong demand into Europe specifically, with the Celebrity brand overindexing to the region. Company commentary remains positive. Carnival had a strong Q2 with yields 200bps ahead of guidance, and indicated that while April saw some volatility, May saw an improvement in demand, and June demand was better than May. Close-in demand was notably strong, with strength broad-based across ticket pricing and onboard and other revenue. What to do with the stocks. Cruise stocks have performed very well YTD, particularly post Carnival’s Q2 as confidence in cruise demand has strengthened, particularly relative to other leisure subsectors, and the US Tax Bill passed without touching cruise – RCL is now up XX% since CCL reported on June 23, while CCL is up only 20%. Our data would suggest a beat and raise at Q2 so there is little reason for the momentum to stall here even if that beat is largely expected. On the cautious side, we would only highlight some noise in Q/Q guidance – Q3 cost guidance is likely to be well above the FY number (~6% growth in NCC ex-fuel per APCD), with savings in Q4 (-7%) as a result of timing of SBC expenses driving the low FY cost guide – although we are still in line on Q3. We retain our long-term structural preference for RCL, particularly after our recent ROIC deep dive where we outlined the path to a sustainable high teens ROIC with runway to grow. RCL reports on July 29." Analyst: Bernstein XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [$rcl](/topic/$rcl) [royal caribbean](/topic/royal-caribbean) [stocks consumer cyclical](/topic/stocks-consumer-cyclical) [Post Link](https://x.com/wallstengine/status/1943273881034535203)
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Wall St Engine @wallstengine on x 73.2K followers
Created: 2025-07-10 11:39:32 UTC
CRUISE: BERNSTEIN REITERATES LONG-TERM PREFERENCE FOR $RCL AMID ROBUST JULY PRICING TRENDS.
"Our July cruise pricing data shows another month of robust cruise price growth. At Royal Caribbean (RCL), prices including the mix towards the new Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel ships were up 6.9%, continuing high single-digit year-over-year price growth from May and June. Like-for-like pricing was also strong, up X% in July, only a slight slowdown from May and June, and a strong rebound from small 'Liberation Day' driven declines in April. European pricing was a bright spot, up well into the double digits year-over-year, while the core markets of the Caribbean and Bahamas saw steady mid to low single-digit price growth.
Cumulatively this should paint a rosy picture for RCL’s upcoming Q2 reporting, but the recent run-up in cruise share prices likely limits the upside from short-term demand strength, with a beat on yields now priced in, while cost guidance into Q3 could add some noise. Despite less short-term upside, we retain our long-term preference for RCL as the best way to play a strong structural outlook for cruise, with the company set to deliver high teens EPS growth at a mid-teens multiple, and with a best-in-class margin and ROIC profile.
Mea Culpa – Some changes to our data. Prior pricing data had not reflected new ‘Honest Pricing’ regulation with advertised prices including taxes and fees from July 2024, meaning we saw a step-up in prices from when the law was implemented. We revise historical pricing data to reflect this, with the data now more closely aligning with reported yield data – despite the changes we retain the same conclusion, that robust year-over-year pricing indicates continued demand strength. There would be no change to our prior month-over-month conclusions.
Pricing was broad-based, but Celebrity particularly strong. Company-wide pricing growth of XXX% year-over-year was driven by XXX% growth at Royal Caribbean (+1.2% ex-Star of the Seas price accretion), and an impressive XXXX% growth at Celebrity (+10.8% ex-Celebrity Xcel price accretion). This likely reflects strong demand into Europe specifically, with the Celebrity brand overindexing to the region.
Company commentary remains positive. Carnival had a strong Q2 with yields 200bps ahead of guidance, and indicated that while April saw some volatility, May saw an improvement in demand, and June demand was better than May. Close-in demand was notably strong, with strength broad-based across ticket pricing and onboard and other revenue.
What to do with the stocks. Cruise stocks have performed very well YTD, particularly post Carnival’s Q2 as confidence in cruise demand has strengthened, particularly relative to other leisure subsectors, and the US Tax Bill passed without touching cruise – RCL is now up XX% since CCL reported on June 23, while CCL is up only 20%. Our data would suggest a beat and raise at Q2 so there is little reason for the momentum to stall here even if that beat is largely expected. On the cautious side, we would only highlight some noise in Q/Q guidance – Q3 cost guidance is likely to be well above the FY number (~6% growth in NCC ex-fuel per APCD), with savings in Q4 (-7%) as a result of timing of SBC expenses driving the low FY cost guide – although we are still in line on Q3.
We retain our long-term structural preference for RCL, particularly after our recent ROIC deep dive where we outlined the path to a sustainable high teens ROIC with runway to grow. RCL reports on July 29."
Analyst: Bernstein
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics $rcl royal caribbean stocks consumer cyclical