[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Wall St Engine [@wallstengine](/creator/twitter/wallstengine) on x 71.4K followers Created: 2025-07-10 09:47:40 UTC TD Cowen Downgrades $LMT to Hold from Buy, Sets PT at $XXX Analyst comments: "(1) F-35 overhangs may persist – the plethora of F-35 overhangs may not clear this year. For example, it is anticipated that Lockheed Martin will take until H1 2026 to fully implement its TR3 software upgrade to make F-35 aircraft combat capable, which impacts cash collections. Moreover, the FY26 Department of Defense (DoD) budget request pares the Air Force's expected F-35 purchase by XX aircraft, and it is unknowable if Air Force F-35 purchases in future years (FY27+) will remain below previously expected levels. The DoD Future Years Defense Program beyond FY26 has not been disclosed yet, but advanced procurement disclosures made in the FY26 DoD request suggest lower F-35 buys may continue. On the plus side, Lockheed Martin's CEO appears intent on upgrading the F-35 to make it more competitive by spiraling in NGAD (F-47) capabilities into the F-35 platform. Moreover, there is a chance that Congress will backfill the requested cut, or that foreign demand will fill the gap, but this is not knowable yet. Thus, the burden on Lockheed Martin's stock will be difficult until the reality is known, preventing a major upward re-rating given the F-35's importance to its earnings base. (2) Execution risk limits upside to Street estimates – since Q1’s print, Lockheed Martin has emphasized the risk of Q2 charges at the Aeronautics segment due to the NGAD loss and associated repositioning, and cost overruns on a classified Aero program (we presume this is the same program that incurred $XXX million of 2024 charges). We are X% below consensus Q2 EPS. Moreover, Lockheed Martin did not sign the F-35 Lot 18/19 contract in Q2, a negative $X billion free cash flow delta versus Street estimates. Thus, Lockheed Martin may pare 2025 guidance on the Q2 print. This seems well-telegraphed as management has been visible with investors in Q2, but nonetheless, it limits the potential for upside on the Q2 print." Analyst: Gautam Khanna XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [lmt](/topic/lmt) [$lmt](/topic/$lmt) [lockheed martin](/topic/lockheed-martin) [coins solana ecosystem](/topic/coins-solana-ecosystem) [coins pump fun](/topic/coins-pump-fun) [stocks industrials](/topic/stocks-industrials) [stocks defense](/topic/stocks-defense) [Post Link](https://x.com/wallstengine/status/1943245730506035652)
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Wall St Engine @wallstengine on x 71.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-10 09:47:40 UTC
TD Cowen Downgrades $LMT to Hold from Buy, Sets PT at $XXX
Analyst comments: "(1) F-35 overhangs may persist – the plethora of F-35 overhangs may not clear this year. For example, it is anticipated that Lockheed Martin will take until H1 2026 to fully implement its TR3 software upgrade to make F-35 aircraft combat capable, which impacts cash collections. Moreover, the FY26 Department of Defense (DoD) budget request pares the Air Force's expected F-35 purchase by XX aircraft, and it is unknowable if Air Force F-35 purchases in future years (FY27+) will remain below previously expected levels. The DoD Future Years Defense Program beyond FY26 has not been disclosed yet, but advanced procurement disclosures made in the FY26 DoD request suggest lower F-35 buys may continue.
On the plus side, Lockheed Martin's CEO appears intent on upgrading the F-35 to make it more competitive by spiraling in NGAD (F-47) capabilities into the F-35 platform. Moreover, there is a chance that Congress will backfill the requested cut, or that foreign demand will fill the gap, but this is not knowable yet. Thus, the burden on Lockheed Martin's stock will be difficult until the reality is known, preventing a major upward re-rating given the F-35's importance to its earnings base.
(2) Execution risk limits upside to Street estimates – since Q1’s print, Lockheed Martin has emphasized the risk of Q2 charges at the Aeronautics segment due to the NGAD loss and associated repositioning, and cost overruns on a classified Aero program (we presume this is the same program that incurred $XXX million of 2024 charges). We are X% below consensus Q2 EPS. Moreover, Lockheed Martin did not sign the F-35 Lot 18/19 contract in Q2, a negative $X billion free cash flow delta versus Street estimates. Thus, Lockheed Martin may pare 2025 guidance on the Q2 print. This seems well-telegraphed as management has been visible with investors in Q2, but nonetheless, it limits the potential for upside on the Q2 print."
Analyst: Gautam Khanna
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics lmt $lmt lockheed martin coins solana ecosystem coins pump fun stocks industrials stocks defense