[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Tyler Neville [@Tyler_Neville_](/creator/twitter/Tyler_Neville_) on x 10.9K followers Created: 2025-07-09 14:01:06 UTC My mini thesis on market structure & asset allocation in the future: -The market is so centralized now, that the principle of diversification is dying. The Beta neutral hedge fund bubble is about to meet its demise as we enter Weimar America. -A systemically healthy market has millions of counterparties interacting which nullifies the importance of central banking and liquidity. When there are millions of small incentives choosing which prices are fair, that’s a salubrious market. When the number of counterparties in a market drops and asset management gets taken over by public pension and giant corporate incentives, the market becomes systemically compromised and leads you into a self reflexive corporatist scheme to bail out the bigger sclerotic institutions. Fiscal dominance emerges - Nothing stops this train! @LynAldenContact -There is an 8-10% hurdle rate for investment (and growing) to take into account monetary dilution & inflation. @Raoul nails this. This renders a lot of fixed income investing obsolete. Trillions are trapped there. -Funds will be forced to concentrate their books more and more to battle this phenomenon. There will be way more winners and losers which will naturally decentralize the asset management industry. There are only X real strategies left for investing in no particular order. 1) Store of Value Investing- Bitcoin, Gold, Inflation Sensitive (metals & mining) and DeFi yield will likely outperform the SPX which just is a mirror of M2 growth. @DTAPCAP . I am rebranding DeFi as the next generation’s Mike Milken/Drexel Burnham. It will be the frontier of yield & release valve for pensions and endowments. 2)Public/Private Growth Inflection Investing (catching a thematic wave in an industry)-Nuclear, Space, AI infrastructure, Robotics, Autonomous Driving, Defense tech, Quantum Computing. @zebulgar 3) Activism- Finding Fraudulent Companies in a world of fake fiat money, companies pissing in the community pool or restructuring poorly run companies with bad incentives. @muddywatersre 4) Debt Restructuring/Bankruptcy- High Yield Fixed income. Providing debt capital to sectors previously boxed out of capital markets which see a cash flow inflection. The next big wave of asset allocation will likely flow into these buckets as they realize the real yield of their portfolios aren’t enough to keep up with the monetary dilution. Passive index investing will likely be death XXXXX cuts but because they’ve imbedded themselves in the 401k infrastructure they will have a really hard time adjusting. You must play jujitsu against passive investment, use the market structure to your advantage, stay ahead of the nonsense. @profplum99 Beware of credit shocks as they will be sharp, fast and geopolitical @DrPippaM , but they will likely be papered over by the fiat paper processors. Would love ideas and feedback! How is this playbook wrong? XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [united states](/topic/united-states) [bubble](/topic/bubble) [beta](/topic/beta) [asset allocation](/topic/asset-allocation) [Post Link](https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_/status/1942947121373565265)
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Tyler Neville @Tyler_Neville_ on x 10.9K followers
Created: 2025-07-09 14:01:06 UTC
My mini thesis on market structure & asset allocation in the future:
-The market is so centralized now, that the principle of diversification is dying. The Beta neutral hedge fund bubble is about to meet its demise as we enter Weimar America.
-A systemically healthy market has millions of counterparties interacting which nullifies the importance of central banking and liquidity. When there are millions of small incentives choosing which prices are fair, that’s a salubrious market. When the number of counterparties in a market drops and asset management gets taken over by public pension and giant corporate incentives, the market becomes systemically compromised and leads you into a self reflexive corporatist scheme to bail out the bigger sclerotic institutions. Fiscal dominance emerges - Nothing stops this train! @LynAldenContact
-There is an 8-10% hurdle rate for investment (and growing) to take into account monetary dilution & inflation. @Raoul nails this. This renders a lot of fixed income investing obsolete. Trillions are trapped there.
-Funds will be forced to concentrate their books more and more to battle this phenomenon. There will be way more winners and losers which will naturally decentralize the asset management industry.
There are only X real strategies left for investing in no particular order.
- Store of Value Investing- Bitcoin, Gold, Inflation Sensitive (metals & mining) and DeFi yield will likely outperform the SPX which just is a mirror of M2 growth. @DTAPCAP . I am rebranding DeFi as the next generation’s Mike Milken/Drexel Burnham. It will be the frontier of yield & release valve for pensions and endowments.
2)Public/Private Growth Inflection Investing (catching a thematic wave in an industry)-Nuclear, Space, AI infrastructure, Robotics, Autonomous Driving, Defense tech, Quantum Computing. @zebulgar
Activism- Finding Fraudulent Companies in a world of fake fiat money, companies pissing in the community pool or restructuring poorly run companies with bad incentives. @muddywatersre
Debt Restructuring/Bankruptcy- High Yield Fixed income. Providing debt capital to sectors previously boxed out of capital markets which see a cash flow inflection.
The next big wave of asset allocation will likely flow into these buckets as they realize the real yield of their portfolios aren’t enough to keep up with the monetary dilution.
Passive index investing will likely be death XXXXX cuts but because they’ve imbedded themselves in the 401k infrastructure they will have a really hard time adjusting. You must play jujitsu against passive investment, use the market structure to your advantage, stay ahead of the nonsense. @profplum99
Beware of credit shocks as they will be sharp, fast and geopolitical @DrPippaM , but they will likely be papered over by the fiat paper processors.
Would love ideas and feedback! How is this playbook wrong?
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics united states bubble beta asset allocation