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![nicotinecap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1876978507773018113.png) Nicotine Capital [@nicotinecap](/creator/twitter/nicotinecap) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-08 05:32:42 UTC

$BTI $BATS has an estimated expected total return of XXXX% to XXXX% per year over the medium to long term at current prices.

Why? Let me explain:

I start with Warren Buffett's concept of "owner earnings" (OE). I then calculate the "expected total owner earnings return" (ETOER) as follows:

ETOER = OEY + OEG

Expected total owner earnings return (ETOER) = owner earnings yield (OEY) + owner earnings growth (OEG)

For $BTI $BATS I'm conservatively estimating ETOER to be XXXX% to XXXX% at current prices:

ETOER = XXX% OEY + 4-6% OEG = 13.5-15.5%

---

Definitions:
- Owner earnings (OE) represent the truly free and available cash a business generates that could be distributed to shareholders (through dividends, share buybacks, etc.) or used for other purposes like debt reduction.

- Owner earnings yield (OEY) represents the OE of a given business divided by its market capitalization, expressed as a percentage.

- Owner earnings growth (OEG) represents the estimated long term growth rate of OE for a given business, expressed as a percentage.

- Expected total owner earnings return (ETOER), the sum of the two percentages, represents the total intrinsic, long term, expected return to an owner of any given business, assuming no change to valuation multiples.

Now I just need nicer, catchier names for these. 😅


XXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1942456791192817742/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[bti](/topic/bti)
[warren](/topic/warren)
[$bats](/topic/$bats)
[$bti](/topic/$bti)

[Post Link](https://x.com/nicotinecap/status/1942456791192817742)