[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Denistratos [@SoJustFollowMe](/creator/twitter/SoJustFollowMe) on x XXX followers Created: 2025-07-05 14:31:26 UTC RECESSIONARY SIGNALS HIDING BEHIND STRONG HEADLINES 🔹 The June U.S. jobs report triggered a short-lived spike in Treasury yields - the 10-year hit 4.35%, the 30-year climbed to 4.86%. 🔹 Market odds of a July rate cut by the Fed dropped to nearly 0%, and September odds fell from XXX% to ~80%. BUT IF YOU DIG INTO THE DETAILS - IT’S NOT SO PRETTY 🔸 All the job growth came from government and healthcare - sectors that are largely cycle-neutral. 🔸 The private sector added just +74K jobs - the lowest in X months. 🔸 Some of that growth was purely statistical, inflated by seasonal adjustments. LABOR VOLUME IS FALLING 🔹 Total hours worked and the average workweek both declined - signs that labor demand is softening, even if jobs technically remain. 🔹 The household survey, which is less prone to methodology distortions, showed only modest job growth. UGLY SIGNS IN THE JOBS MARKET 🔸 The number of people working multiple jobs is rising - a classic recessionary signal. 🔸 The drop in unemployment was driven not by hiring, but by a seasonal decline in the labor force, especially among younger workers. 🔸 Among prime-age adults, labor force participation actually increased. BOTTOM LINE 🔹 The headlines give the #FED and #Powell cover to delay action - despite growing evidence of disinflation and labor market weakness. 🔹 On Thursday, I added another XX% to an already sizable position in 30-year U.S. Treasuries. #SoJustFollowMe #SoJustMarketNews #MarketUpdate #TLT #TMF #IEF #TYD  XXX engagements  **Related Topics** [all the](/topic/all-the) [fed](/topic/fed) [fed rate](/topic/fed-rate) [federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve) [signals](/topic/signals) [economic downturn](/topic/economic-downturn) [Post Link](https://x.com/SoJustFollowMe/status/1941505201719882197)
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Denistratos @SoJustFollowMe on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-05 14:31:26 UTC
RECESSIONARY SIGNALS HIDING BEHIND STRONG HEADLINES
🔹 The June U.S. jobs report triggered a short-lived spike in Treasury yields - the 10-year hit 4.35%, the 30-year climbed to 4.86%. 🔹 Market odds of a July rate cut by the Fed dropped to nearly 0%, and September odds fell from XXX% to ~80%.
BUT IF YOU DIG INTO THE DETAILS - IT’S NOT SO PRETTY
🔸 All the job growth came from government and healthcare - sectors that are largely cycle-neutral. 🔸 The private sector added just +74K jobs - the lowest in X months. 🔸 Some of that growth was purely statistical, inflated by seasonal adjustments.
LABOR VOLUME IS FALLING
🔹 Total hours worked and the average workweek both declined - signs that labor demand is softening, even if jobs technically remain. 🔹 The household survey, which is less prone to methodology distortions, showed only modest job growth.
UGLY SIGNS IN THE JOBS MARKET
🔸 The number of people working multiple jobs is rising - a classic recessionary signal. 🔸 The drop in unemployment was driven not by hiring, but by a seasonal decline in the labor force, especially among younger workers. 🔸 Among prime-age adults, labor force participation actually increased.
BOTTOM LINE
🔹 The headlines give the #FED and #Powell cover to delay action - despite growing evidence of disinflation and labor market weakness.
🔹 On Thursday, I added another XX% to an already sizable position in 30-year U.S. Treasuries.
#SoJustFollowMe #SoJustMarketNews #MarketUpdate #TLT #TMF #IEF #TYD
XXX engagements
Related Topics all the fed fed rate federal reserve signals economic downturn