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![SoJustFollowMe Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1727355254549692416.png) Denistratos [@SoJustFollowMe](/creator/twitter/SoJustFollowMe) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-05 14:31:26 UTC

RECESSIONARY SIGNALS HIDING BEHIND STRONG HEADLINES

🔹 The June U.S. jobs report triggered a short-lived spike in Treasury yields - the 10-year hit 4.35%, the 30-year climbed to 4.86%.
🔹 Market odds of a July rate cut by the Fed dropped to nearly 0%, and September odds fell from XXX% to ~80%.

BUT IF YOU DIG INTO THE DETAILS - IT’S NOT SO PRETTY

🔸 All the job growth came from government and healthcare - sectors that are largely cycle-neutral.
🔸 The private sector added just +74K jobs - the lowest in X months.
🔸 Some of that growth was purely statistical, inflated by seasonal adjustments.

LABOR VOLUME IS FALLING

🔹 Total hours worked and the average workweek both declined - signs that labor demand is softening, even if jobs technically remain.
🔹 The household survey, which is less prone to methodology distortions, showed only modest job growth.

UGLY SIGNS IN THE JOBS MARKET

🔸 The number of people working multiple jobs is rising - a classic recessionary signal.
🔸 The drop in unemployment was driven not by hiring, but by a seasonal decline in the labor force, especially among younger workers.
🔸 Among prime-age adults, labor force participation actually increased.

BOTTOM LINE

🔹 The headlines give the #FED and #Powell cover to delay action - despite growing evidence of disinflation and labor market weakness.

🔹 On Thursday, I added another XX% to an already sizable position in 30-year U.S. Treasuries.

#SoJustFollowMe #SoJustMarketNews #MarketUpdate #TLT #TMF #IEF #TYD

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GvGcsI8XEAAdIkm.jpg)

XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1941505201719882197/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[all the](/topic/all-the)
[fed](/topic/fed)
[fed rate](/topic/fed-rate)
[federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve)
[signals](/topic/signals)
[economic downturn](/topic/economic-downturn)

[Post Link](https://x.com/SoJustFollowMe/status/1941505201719882197)

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

SoJustFollowMe Avatar Denistratos @SoJustFollowMe on x XXX followers Created: 2025-07-05 14:31:26 UTC

RECESSIONARY SIGNALS HIDING BEHIND STRONG HEADLINES

🔹 The June U.S. jobs report triggered a short-lived spike in Treasury yields - the 10-year hit 4.35%, the 30-year climbed to 4.86%. 🔹 Market odds of a July rate cut by the Fed dropped to nearly 0%, and September odds fell from XXX% to ~80%.

BUT IF YOU DIG INTO THE DETAILS - IT’S NOT SO PRETTY

🔸 All the job growth came from government and healthcare - sectors that are largely cycle-neutral. 🔸 The private sector added just +74K jobs - the lowest in X months. 🔸 Some of that growth was purely statistical, inflated by seasonal adjustments.

LABOR VOLUME IS FALLING

🔹 Total hours worked and the average workweek both declined - signs that labor demand is softening, even if jobs technically remain. 🔹 The household survey, which is less prone to methodology distortions, showed only modest job growth.

UGLY SIGNS IN THE JOBS MARKET

🔸 The number of people working multiple jobs is rising - a classic recessionary signal. 🔸 The drop in unemployment was driven not by hiring, but by a seasonal decline in the labor force, especially among younger workers. 🔸 Among prime-age adults, labor force participation actually increased.

BOTTOM LINE

🔹 The headlines give the #FED and #Powell cover to delay action - despite growing evidence of disinflation and labor market weakness.

🔹 On Thursday, I added another XX% to an already sizable position in 30-year U.S. Treasuries.

#SoJustFollowMe #SoJustMarketNews #MarketUpdate #TLT #TMF #IEF #TYD

XXX engagements

Engagements Line Chart

Related Topics all the fed fed rate federal reserve signals economic downturn

Post Link

post/tweet::1941505201719882197
/post/tweet::1941505201719882197