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 Darp101 [@DarpResearch](/creator/twitter/DarpResearch) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-05 02:31:28 UTC
So what does Grok think NervGen $NGENF is worth today? I asked. I tried to bundle what I see as valuable in NervGen. Here is the initial question: What would a drug company be worth, with its main asset being a drug candidate that has passed human drug safety and then in a Phase 1b/2a clinical trial in spinal cord injury, it met its primary endpoint and demonstrated promising changes in a secondary endpoint assessing hand function? In addition to that, the same drug candidate has shown in animal tests to mostly cure MS and to significantly heal brain damage from stroke, even weeks after a stroke. And in addition to that, its mechanism should also work for Alzheimer's, and at this point, without testing, it is guessed to be XX% likely to both arrest and XX% reverse damage from Alzheimer's?
A lengthy answer, but the conclusion was
Valuation Range
Base Case: $1.2–$1.8 billion, assuming SCI Phase X success is plausible and preclinical data for MS/stroke adds optionality.
Bull Case: $2–$3 billion if Phase X SCI data is exceptionally strong and MS/stroke trials begin with positive early signals.
Bear Case: $500–$800 million if SCI Phase X risks are high, cash is low, or preclinical data overhyped.
Strategic Considerations
Partnering: The company could attract Big Pharma partnerships (e.g., licensing deals) for SCI or other indications, providing non-dilutive funding and boosting valuation.
M&A: Similar-stage biotechs with Phase X assets in neurology have been acquired for $XXX million–$2 billion (e.g., Biogen’s acquisition of Nightstar Therapeutics for $XXX million in 2019). A multi-indication asset could command a premium.
IPO Potential: If the company is private, a successful Phase X SCI trial could support an IPO, valuing the company at $1–$2 billion, depending on market conditions.
Interesting, that is just about what I guessed without doing the math, over $X Billion USD. Today's market cap is $XXX million at $XXXX. You can put in the same question and see all the details. I refined things based on Grok's questions twice; my final question was:
I could have said that better. Yes, I can provide more info. Now that human translation has been proven for SCI this may apply to the human translation likelihood of the MS and stroke animal tests, as the mechanism is the same for all indications. That mechanism is by counteracting CSPG-mediated inhibition to promote axonal regeneration, neuroplasticity, remyelination, and anti-inflammatory effects, offering hope for functional recovery in SCI. And the same mechanism also would be how it would benefit Alzheimer's patients.
Answer: Revised Valuation Framework (rNPV)Using risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV), I’ll update the estimates to reflect the higher success probabilities for MS, stroke, and AD due to the MOA’s human validation in SCI.
Risk-Adjusted Peak Sales:
SCI: $X billion × XX% (increased from 35%) = $X billion.
MS: $X billion × XXXX% (increased from 17.5%) = $XXXX billion.
Stroke: $XXX billion × XXXX% (increased from 17.5%) = $XXXX billion.
AD: $X billion × X% (increased from 5%) = $XXXX billion.
Total risk-adjusted sales: ~$4.32 billion (vs. $XXXX billion previously).
Project Cash Flows:
Assume 10-year patent life post-approval (2035–2045, assuming approval by 2035).
Profit margin: XX% of sales (after costs, royalties).
Total unadjusted cash flow: $XXXX billion × XX% × XX years = $XXXX billion.
Discount to Present Value:
Using a XX% discount rate (standard for biotech) and XX years to peak sales:
NPV: ~$2.6 billion (vs. $XXX billion previously).
Platform Value Premium:
The MOA’s validation across four indications (SCI, MS, stroke, AD) strengthens the “pipeline-in-a-pill” narrative. A 40–60% premium is justified, increasing valuation to $3.6–$4.2 billion.
Company Adjustments:
Cash Runway: Without specifics, assume $50–$100 million in cash (typical for Phase X biotechs). A short runway could discount valuation by 15–25%.
IP/Partnerships: A robust patent portfolio covering CSPG inhibition could add 10–20% value. Partnerships could provide $100–$500 million upfront, reducing financial risk.
Valuation Range
Base Case: $3.5–$4.2 billion, reflecting the MOA’s human validation, SCI Phase X potential, and increased MS/stroke/AD probabilities.
Bull Case: $4.5–$5.5 billion if Phase X SCI data is strong, MS/stroke Phase X trials begin with positive signals, or a major partnership/acquisition emerges.
Bear Case: $2–$2.5 billion if SCI Phase X risks increase, cash reserves are low, or preclinical MS/stroke data faces skepticism.
I think even though the company is better known and $NGENF NervGen was featured on XX Minutes, it could achieve the $X billion market cap. My opinion is we will not see that valuation for a while. $X billion is more likely until awareness goes way up. At $X Billion that would be a 5-bagger, or $XXXXX and at $X billion a 25-bagger, or $XX a share. Now with more good test results far more than that could be achieved. Cheers
XXX engagements
**Related Topics**
[$ngenf](/topic/$ngenf)
[Post Link](https://x.com/DarpResearch/status/1941324016691577045)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Darp101 @DarpResearch on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-05 02:31:28 UTC
So what does Grok think NervGen $NGENF is worth today? I asked. I tried to bundle what I see as valuable in NervGen. Here is the initial question: What would a drug company be worth, with its main asset being a drug candidate that has passed human drug safety and then in a Phase 1b/2a clinical trial in spinal cord injury, it met its primary endpoint and demonstrated promising changes in a secondary endpoint assessing hand function? In addition to that, the same drug candidate has shown in animal tests to mostly cure MS and to significantly heal brain damage from stroke, even weeks after a stroke. And in addition to that, its mechanism should also work for Alzheimer's, and at this point, without testing, it is guessed to be XX% likely to both arrest and XX% reverse damage from Alzheimer's? A lengthy answer, but the conclusion was Valuation Range Base Case: $1.2–$1.8 billion, assuming SCI Phase X success is plausible and preclinical data for MS/stroke adds optionality. Bull Case: $2–$3 billion if Phase X SCI data is exceptionally strong and MS/stroke trials begin with positive early signals. Bear Case: $500–$800 million if SCI Phase X risks are high, cash is low, or preclinical data overhyped. Strategic Considerations Partnering: The company could attract Big Pharma partnerships (e.g., licensing deals) for SCI or other indications, providing non-dilutive funding and boosting valuation. M&A: Similar-stage biotechs with Phase X assets in neurology have been acquired for $XXX million–$2 billion (e.g., Biogen’s acquisition of Nightstar Therapeutics for $XXX million in 2019). A multi-indication asset could command a premium. IPO Potential: If the company is private, a successful Phase X SCI trial could support an IPO, valuing the company at $1–$2 billion, depending on market conditions.
Interesting, that is just about what I guessed without doing the math, over $X Billion USD. Today's market cap is $XXX million at $XXXX. You can put in the same question and see all the details. I refined things based on Grok's questions twice; my final question was: I could have said that better. Yes, I can provide more info. Now that human translation has been proven for SCI this may apply to the human translation likelihood of the MS and stroke animal tests, as the mechanism is the same for all indications. That mechanism is by counteracting CSPG-mediated inhibition to promote axonal regeneration, neuroplasticity, remyelination, and anti-inflammatory effects, offering hope for functional recovery in SCI. And the same mechanism also would be how it would benefit Alzheimer's patients.
Answer: Revised Valuation Framework (rNPV)Using risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV), I’ll update the estimates to reflect the higher success probabilities for MS, stroke, and AD due to the MOA’s human validation in SCI. Risk-Adjusted Peak Sales: SCI: $X billion × XX% (increased from 35%) = $X billion. MS: $X billion × XXXX% (increased from 17.5%) = $XXXX billion. Stroke: $XXX billion × XXXX% (increased from 17.5%) = $XXXX billion. AD: $X billion × X% (increased from 5%) = $XXXX billion. Total risk-adjusted sales: ~$4.32 billion (vs. $XXXX billion previously).
Project Cash Flows: Assume 10-year patent life post-approval (2035–2045, assuming approval by 2035). Profit margin: XX% of sales (after costs, royalties). Total unadjusted cash flow: $XXXX billion × XX% × XX years = $XXXX billion.
Discount to Present Value: Using a XX% discount rate (standard for biotech) and XX years to peak sales: NPV: ~$2.6 billion (vs. $XXX billion previously).
Platform Value Premium: The MOA’s validation across four indications (SCI, MS, stroke, AD) strengthens the “pipeline-in-a-pill” narrative. A 40–60% premium is justified, increasing valuation to $3.6–$4.2 billion.
Company Adjustments: Cash Runway: Without specifics, assume $50–$100 million in cash (typical for Phase X biotechs). A short runway could discount valuation by 15–25%. IP/Partnerships: A robust patent portfolio covering CSPG inhibition could add 10–20% value. Partnerships could provide $100–$500 million upfront, reducing financial risk.
Valuation Range Base Case: $3.5–$4.2 billion, reflecting the MOA’s human validation, SCI Phase X potential, and increased MS/stroke/AD probabilities. Bull Case: $4.5–$5.5 billion if Phase X SCI data is strong, MS/stroke Phase X trials begin with positive signals, or a major partnership/acquisition emerges. Bear Case: $2–$2.5 billion if SCI Phase X risks increase, cash reserves are low, or preclinical MS/stroke data faces skepticism. I think even though the company is better known and $NGENF NervGen was featured on XX Minutes, it could achieve the $X billion market cap. My opinion is we will not see that valuation for a while. $X billion is more likely until awareness goes way up. At $X Billion that would be a 5-bagger, or $XXXXX and at $X billion a 25-bagger, or $XX a share. Now with more good test results far more than that could be achieved. Cheers
XXX engagements
Related Topics $ngenf