[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Jukan [@Jukanlosreve](/creator/twitter/Jukanlosreve) on x 22.7K followers Created: 2025-07-03 22:42:03 UTC AIchip: Expected to Exclusively Supply Trainium3 and Likely to Secure Trainium4, Significant Growth Potential in 2026 Morgan Stanley (C. Chan, 25/07/02) Morgan Stanley indicates that Alchip may have become the exclusive supplier for AWS Trainium3 and has a high probability of securing the Trainium4 project. Considering its smooth progression to 3nm and potential 2nm project roadmap, the company's CoWoS capacity is expected to significantly ramp up in 2026, driving accelerated revenue growth. Trainium3 Expected to be Exclusively Contracted by Alchip, Mass Production to Begin in 2026 According to industry surveys, Alchip is highly likely to be the sole XPU supplier for AWS Trainium3. Its 3nm chip successfully taped out in May 2025, demonstrating mature backend design and no need to change service providers. Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 CoWoS wafer start forecast to XXXXXX wafers, corresponding to approximately XXXXXXX to XXXXXXX units shipped, contributing significantly to revenue. Marvell Exits XPU Foundry Competition, Shifts to Peripheral Chip Support In contrast, Marvell recently canceled some 2026 CoWoS-R orders, indicating its failure to enter the 3nm XPU foundry project and its focus solely on XPU auxiliary chips. This further solidifies Alchip's dominant position in Trainium3 foundry. Trainium4 Project Also Has High Win Rate, Collaboration with Astera Drives 2nm Layout Alchip hinted at positive progress on its 2nm test chip project during its Q1 2025 earnings call. Coupled with its recent collaboration with Astera Labs on chiplet I/O design capabilities, this increases its likelihood of securing the Trainium4 project. The market expects a decision on this project by the end of July, and Morgan Stanley has upgraded this expectation to its base case. Although AWS Builds Small-Scale Production Lines, Alchip Still Holds Nearly XXX% of Foundry Orders While the client operates a small CoWoS production line, it is primarily for supplemental capacity, to be utilized if Alchip's capacity is insufficient. Overall, Alchip still handles virtually all Turnkey foundry business. The estimated unit price for its 3nm chip is US$3,000 (excluding HBM), and clients generally use an HBM consignment model to reduce working capital pressure.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [roadmap](/topic/roadmap) [amazon web services](/topic/amazon-web-services) [$3661tw](/topic/$3661tw) [chan](/topic/chan) [morgan stanley](/topic/morgan-stanley) [stocks financial services](/topic/stocks-financial-services) [Post Link](https://x.com/Jukanlosreve/status/1940903893556514936)
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Jukan @Jukanlosreve on x 22.7K followers
Created: 2025-07-03 22:42:03 UTC
AIchip: Expected to Exclusively Supply Trainium3 and Likely to Secure Trainium4, Significant Growth Potential in 2026
Morgan Stanley (C. Chan, 25/07/02)
Morgan Stanley indicates that Alchip may have become the exclusive supplier for AWS Trainium3 and has a high probability of securing the Trainium4 project. Considering its smooth progression to 3nm and potential 2nm project roadmap, the company's CoWoS capacity is expected to significantly ramp up in 2026, driving accelerated revenue growth.
Trainium3 Expected to be Exclusively Contracted by Alchip, Mass Production to Begin in 2026
According to industry surveys, Alchip is highly likely to be the sole XPU supplier for AWS Trainium3. Its 3nm chip successfully taped out in May 2025, demonstrating mature backend design and no need to change service providers. Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 CoWoS wafer start forecast to XXXXXX wafers, corresponding to approximately XXXXXXX to XXXXXXX units shipped, contributing significantly to revenue.
Marvell Exits XPU Foundry Competition, Shifts to Peripheral Chip Support
In contrast, Marvell recently canceled some 2026 CoWoS-R orders, indicating its failure to enter the 3nm XPU foundry project and its focus solely on XPU auxiliary chips. This further solidifies Alchip's dominant position in Trainium3 foundry.
Trainium4 Project Also Has High Win Rate, Collaboration with Astera Drives 2nm Layout
Alchip hinted at positive progress on its 2nm test chip project during its Q1 2025 earnings call. Coupled with its recent collaboration with Astera Labs on chiplet I/O design capabilities, this increases its likelihood of securing the Trainium4 project. The market expects a decision on this project by the end of July, and Morgan Stanley has upgraded this expectation to its base case.
Although AWS Builds Small-Scale Production Lines, Alchip Still Holds Nearly XXX% of Foundry Orders
While the client operates a small CoWoS production line, it is primarily for supplemental capacity, to be utilized if Alchip's capacity is insufficient. Overall, Alchip still handles virtually all Turnkey foundry business. The estimated unit price for its 3nm chip is US$3,000 (excluding HBM), and clients generally use an HBM consignment model to reduce working capital pressure.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics roadmap amazon web services $3661tw chan morgan stanley stocks financial services