[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Nick Research [@Nick_Researcher](/creator/twitter/Nick_Researcher) on x 20.3K followers Created: 2025-07-03 04:56:56 UTC ➥ Marcro & The Bitcoin Minning Cost Correlation ✦ Trade war → rising retaliatory tariffs → rare earth prices ↑ → chip manufacturing cost ↑ → mining rig prices ↑ → mining cost ↑ You know #Bitcoin miners follow upgrade cycles, similar to the halving rhythm. This typically happens every 2-4 years, depending on hardware progress and competitive intensity. It’s now >1 year past the 4th Bitcoin halving (April 20, 2024). → Meaning that most mining rigs are still fresh new > A new wave of hardware investment isn’t due yet. → So any effect from the trade war on mining costs may not be fully priced in for another 6-12 months. ✦ However, in this geopolitical context: ▸ China holds a massive edge in rare soils → the raw materials behind cheap chip production (WTO: China holds 44M tons of rare earth reserves, ranked #1 globally) ▸ Trump isn’t taxing chip exports from China, yet chinese consumers are boycotting U.S. goods, which may dampen exports. → China will look for ways to leverage this resource surplus. If China allows large-scale #Bitcoin mining again: → Cheap domestic chips → competitive rigs → Pressure on U.S.-based miners rises → U.S. must produce domestically at higher cost → upgrades → cost inflation. All paths lead to one conclusion: rising #Bitcoin mining costs. Of course, cost inflation is part of #Bitcoin’s long-term design: ▸ Inflation → halving → new-gen miner competition But in today’s AI-driven, macro-unstable world, the competitive cycle may speed up faster than usual. ✦ Two core metrics reflect this: ➊ Hashrate just hit a new ATH: 1055 EH/s → That’s 1055 million trillion trillion calculations per second to mine BTC. ➋ Mining Difficulty is also at a record high: 121.5B → The market must stay alert to reactions from: • Earnings of China-exposed companies • Inflation spillovers • Geopolitical flare-ups • A potential U.S.-China breakdown • Crypto adoption progress in nations like Singapore, China, U.S… ✦ Zooming in: [1] Bitcoin's divergence from traditional markets: → Correlation with Nasdaq is fading → $BTC volatility is dropping while stocks and bonds grow more volatile → Institutional wallets are quietly accumulating again. [2] Gold has surged ~20% as central banks stockpile it at record pace. → [1][2] hint at a shift: $BTC is transitioning from a high-risk asset → to a strategic macro hedge. Long-term, $BTC won't replace gold, it's becoming a parallel reserve system. In a fragmented global order, capital is chasing neutrality. → That drove the gold rush. → But gold can’t keep surging forever. If #Bitcoin remains resilient under ongoing macro pressure. You may be witnessing the early signals of sovereign/institutional recognition and eventually, public adoption. ✦ TL;DR: ▸ Tech-wise: Bitcoin is engineered for long-term price appreciation ▸ Macro-wise: Geopolitical frictions may ignite an arms race in mining ▸ Sentiment-wise: After the gold rush, Bitcoin might be the only asset that ticks both boxes: liquidity + value refuge ▸ Option insights: Whale aims a big pump in Sept, expecting BTC to hit $140K So from my perspective, a #Bitcoin rebound is likely within the next few months.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [signals](/topic/signals) [#bitcoin](/topic/#bitcoin) [mining](/topic/mining) [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [trade war](/topic/trade-war) [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) [coins layer 1](/topic/coins-layer-1) [coins bitcoin ecosystem](/topic/coins-bitcoin-ecosystem) [Post Link](https://x.com/Nick_Researcher/status/1940635851056447600)
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Nick Research @Nick_Researcher on x 20.3K followers
Created: 2025-07-03 04:56:56 UTC
➥ Marcro & The Bitcoin Minning Cost Correlation
✦ Trade war → rising retaliatory tariffs → rare earth prices ↑ → chip manufacturing cost ↑ → mining rig prices ↑ → mining cost ↑
You know #Bitcoin miners follow upgrade cycles, similar to the halving rhythm.
This typically happens every 2-4 years, depending on hardware progress and competitive intensity.
It’s now >1 year past the 4th Bitcoin halving (April 20, 2024).
→ Meaning that most mining rigs are still fresh new > A new wave of hardware investment isn’t due yet. → So any effect from the trade war on mining costs may not be fully priced in for another 6-12 months.
✦ However, in this geopolitical context:
▸ China holds a massive edge in rare soils → the raw materials behind cheap chip production
(WTO: China holds 44M tons of rare earth reserves, ranked #1 globally)
▸ Trump isn’t taxing chip exports from China, yet chinese consumers are boycotting U.S. goods, which may dampen exports.
→ China will look for ways to leverage this resource surplus.
If China allows large-scale #Bitcoin mining again:
→ Cheap domestic chips → competitive rigs → Pressure on U.S.-based miners rises → U.S. must produce domestically at higher cost → upgrades → cost inflation.
All paths lead to one conclusion: rising #Bitcoin mining costs.
Of course, cost inflation is part of #Bitcoin’s long-term design: ▸ Inflation → halving → new-gen miner competition
But in today’s AI-driven, macro-unstable world, the competitive cycle may speed up faster than usual.
✦ Two core metrics reflect this:
➊ Hashrate just hit a new ATH: 1055 EH/s
→ That’s 1055 million trillion trillion calculations per second to mine BTC.
➋ Mining Difficulty is also at a record high: 121.5B
→ The market must stay alert to reactions from: • Earnings of China-exposed companies • Inflation spillovers • Geopolitical flare-ups • A potential U.S.-China breakdown • Crypto adoption progress in nations like Singapore, China, U.S…
✦ Zooming in:
[1] Bitcoin's divergence from traditional markets: → Correlation with Nasdaq is fading → $BTC volatility is dropping while stocks and bonds grow more volatile → Institutional wallets are quietly accumulating again.
[2] Gold has surged ~20% as central banks stockpile it at record pace.
→ [1][2] hint at a shift: $BTC is transitioning from a high-risk asset → to a strategic macro hedge.
Long-term, $BTC won't replace gold, it's becoming a parallel reserve system.
In a fragmented global order, capital is chasing neutrality.
→ That drove the gold rush. → But gold can’t keep surging forever.
If #Bitcoin remains resilient under ongoing macro pressure.
You may be witnessing the early signals of sovereign/institutional recognition and eventually, public adoption.
✦ TL;DR:
▸ Tech-wise: Bitcoin is engineered for long-term price appreciation ▸ Macro-wise: Geopolitical frictions may ignite an arms race in mining ▸ Sentiment-wise: After the gold rush, Bitcoin might be the only asset that ticks both boxes: liquidity + value refuge ▸ Option insights: Whale aims a big pump in Sept, expecting BTC to hit $140K
So from my perspective, a #Bitcoin rebound is likely within the next few months.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics signals #bitcoin mining tariffs trade war bitcoin coins layer 1 coins bitcoin ecosystem