[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Hamid [@hamids](/creator/twitter/hamids) on x 20.7K followers Created: 2025-07-02 16:23:38 UTC Let's talk $RIVN for a moment... - Today, they announced their production and delivery numbers: XXXXX cars produced, XXXXXX delivered. Production was limited due to factory retooling, but the delivery numbers, at just 10,661, are also not great. Definitely nothing to write home about. The deliveries are down more than XX% YoY. So why am I bullish on Rivian? Here's all the reasons why: 1) Rivian is priced with the expectations to go out of business. It's valued at just $XX Billion for the entire company. The reason: the expectation of investors is that Rivian will run out of money before it becomes a sustainable (profitable) company. When expectations are this low, there is a lot of downside already baked into the price. So if the company simply survives to profitability (even break-even), this would be a massive surprise to investors. So the question becomes, can Rivian survive until it hits break-even? Great question! Let's look at the other reasons I like Rivian... 2) Rivian has a massive cash pile of more than $X Billion! Yes! It has nearly 1/2 of it's market cap in cash and it's not even remotely close to running out. Even at current burn rates, Rivian has AT LEAST 2+ years of life remaining. That's assuming nothing changes. This is not $LCID where they *must* raise money to survive every X months. 3) Rivian now has a positive gross margin on the R1 line. It used to be that for every vehicle Rivian sold, it cost them more to build a new one than the price they sold it for. That's no longer true. This has helped them reduce their cash spend significantly. 4) The VW partnership has not only given them a huge customer, providing licensing and technology revenues, but it has also given them cash and credibility. The world's largest car company couldn't build out all the tech for EVs on their own and had to rely on Rivian. This tells you that what Rivian has is not trivial to build. 5) Rivian's R2 (pictured below) at $45K starting price, will likely be a HUGE success. Why? Because it's the only real competitor to the Model Y. I'm not saying it's going to beat the Model Y - it doesn't need to. Tesla sold XXX Million Model Y vehicles in 2024. Rivian could become a profitable company selling just XXXXXXX R2s per year. 6) Rivian has put everything they learned from making the R1 into making the R2. From simplifying and reducing parts, to improving manufacturing techniques, to working with suppliers to reduce costs. Rivian has put their heart and sole into the R2. 7) Rivian, unlike ALL THE OTHER CAR COMPANIES, is following Tesla's full-stack strategy. It blows my mind that none of the other car companies have copied Tesla, except Rivian. Like Tesla, Rivian: - Creates its own battery pack - Has its own software stack with OTA updates - Builds its own electronics and circuit boards - Has surround camera system with FSD-like Computer for future self-driving capabilities and is capturing and sending driving data home (similar to Tesla) to train AI. - Has an AI team working on self-driving tech - Has its own Rivian Charging Network (and can use Tesla's) 8) Last, and certainly not least, I like @RJScaringe, the founder and CEO of Rivian. He's a hands-on technical guy. MIT educated, with a laser focus on putting everything he's learned from building X vehicles customers love, into the R2 line. So yeah, while the Q2 prod/delivery numbers were not great, I'm still quite excited for Rivian's future.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [rivian](/topic/rivian) [$rivn](/topic/$rivn) [rivian automotive inc](/topic/rivian-automotive-inc) [stocks consumer cyclical](/topic/stocks-consumer-cyclical) [Post Link](https://x.com/hamids/status/1940446275494625379)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Hamid @hamids on x 20.7K followers
Created: 2025-07-02 16:23:38 UTC
Let's talk $RIVN for a moment...
- Today, they announced their production and delivery numbers: XXXXX cars produced, XXXXXX delivered. Production was limited due to factory retooling, but the delivery numbers, at just 10,661, are also not great.
Definitely nothing to write home about. The deliveries are down more than XX% YoY.
So why am I bullish on Rivian? Here's all the reasons why:
- Rivian is priced with the expectations to go out of business. It's valued at just $XX Billion for the entire company. The reason: the expectation of investors is that Rivian will run out of money before it becomes a sustainable (profitable) company. When expectations are this low, there is a lot of downside already baked into the price. So if the company simply survives to profitability (even break-even), this would be a massive surprise to investors.
So the question becomes, can Rivian survive until it hits break-even? Great question! Let's look at the other reasons I like Rivian...
Rivian has a massive cash pile of more than $X Billion! Yes! It has nearly 1/2 of it's market cap in cash and it's not even remotely close to running out. Even at current burn rates, Rivian has AT LEAST 2+ years of life remaining. That's assuming nothing changes. This is not $LCID where they must raise money to survive every X months.
Rivian now has a positive gross margin on the R1 line. It used to be that for every vehicle Rivian sold, it cost them more to build a new one than the price they sold it for. That's no longer true. This has helped them reduce their cash spend significantly.
The VW partnership has not only given them a huge customer, providing licensing and technology revenues, but it has also given them cash and credibility. The world's largest car company couldn't build out all the tech for EVs on their own and had to rely on Rivian. This tells you that what Rivian has is not trivial to build.
Rivian's R2 (pictured below) at $45K starting price, will likely be a HUGE success. Why? Because it's the only real competitor to the Model Y. I'm not saying it's going to beat the Model Y - it doesn't need to. Tesla sold XXX Million Model Y vehicles in 2024. Rivian could become a profitable company selling just XXXXXXX R2s per year.
Rivian has put everything they learned from making the R1 into making the R2. From simplifying and reducing parts, to improving manufacturing techniques, to working with suppliers to reduce costs. Rivian has put their heart and sole into the R2.
Rivian, unlike ALL THE OTHER CAR COMPANIES, is following Tesla's full-stack strategy. It blows my mind that none of the other car companies have copied Tesla, except Rivian.
Like Tesla, Rivian:
- Creates its own battery pack
- Has its own software stack with OTA updates
- Builds its own electronics and circuit boards
- Has surround camera system with FSD-like Computer for future self-driving capabilities and is capturing and sending driving data home (similar to Tesla) to train AI.
- Has an AI team working on self-driving tech
- Has its own Rivian Charging Network (and can use Tesla's)
- Last, and certainly not least, I like @RJScaringe, the founder and CEO of Rivian. He's a hands-on technical guy. MIT educated, with a laser focus on putting everything he's learned from building X vehicles customers love, into the R2 line.
So yeah, while the Q2 prod/delivery numbers were not great, I'm still quite excited for Rivian's future.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics rivian $rivn rivian automotive inc stocks consumer cyclical