[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Adu Subramanian [@plainyogurt21](/creator/twitter/plainyogurt21) on x 4083 followers Created: 2025-06-30 17:34:25 UTC $MBX Back on this, And I think it's worth a shot. ASND has launched strong in HypoPTH and $SEPN failed. A weekly injectable would be helpful as a pseudo "basal- bolus" regimen (we've actually seen this work in HypoPTH using insulin pumps instead of twice daily admin). Keep in mind ASND moved up XX% when $SEPN failed in February, that's a few B in market cap. Phase X trial has issues with vitamin D, urinary calcium, fluctuations in bone deposition but they can be explained. HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE IMO If we can get PTH levels to normal levels, then the drug should work in patients with HypoPTH. MBX 2109 is a prodrug bound to fatty acyl groups to extend it's half life (similar to GLP1 Analogs) It goes in, binds at two locations on albumin and converts to active drug in the body. First it binds to albumin at two locations, then it breaks down into the "active drug" (still bound to albumin, but ony at one spot). The phase X active drug concentrations = bound drug +free drug. Only free drug is effective. That's why the concentration of "active drug" is 1000x+ normal PTH levels. We need to measure the "free drug" MBX management estimates .1% availability (.1% of total drug is free) based on the effects on PTH and calcium (see 10k). Semaglutide and other albumin bound molecules are in the similar range (see FDA review semaglutide) The molecular weight of the drug itself is ~5.2kDa and the concentration is ~2 nMOL. (using the peptide sequence from the patent and the concentrations). Beep boop beep, do the math converting kDA to molar mass -> concentrations. the concentration is about XX ng/mL. THe concentration for PTH in Transcon PTH is 8-12 pg/mL. I haven't found the dissociation constant (Kd, tells you ratio free drug to albumin), But it should be in the range reported by other molecules with the C16 tag. (i.e. liraglutide) which leads to >.1% availability and uM kd. ASND commentary seems to confirm this "But the element of that is basic. A technology, which are basic as an active entity is an isolated PTH that stays XXXX% associated to basic the element of albumin. I do not know how that ever can activate the phosphate receptor, how they can get into the brain and really restore normal industrious PTH level in the normal distribution you have out through the body. I'm also lost in the science there. " - ASND management Actually, if they have .1% availability, that's in range of the ASND data. They should reach 8-12 pg/mL in steady state concentrations. At those levels, the drug should work. MBX phase X trial is designed to reach steady state after a few weeks and titration up to higher levels if needed. If they reach a stat sig (40% delta), I think upside is a 20$, if they reach XX% or more difference vs Placebo, it;s 30$ and on a fail, it's down to < $X. I think it's XX% chance positive, a bet worth taking if sized properly. Readout Q3.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [mbx](/topic/mbx) [market cap](/topic/market-cap) [$sepn](/topic/$sepn) [$mbx](/topic/$mbx) [Post Link](https://x.com/plainyogurt21/status/1939739312897024511)
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Adu Subramanian @plainyogurt21 on x 4083 followers
Created: 2025-06-30 17:34:25 UTC
$MBX
Back on this,
And I think it's worth a shot. ASND has launched strong in HypoPTH and $SEPN failed. A weekly injectable would be helpful as a pseudo "basal- bolus" regimen (we've actually seen this work in HypoPTH using insulin pumps instead of twice daily admin). Keep in mind ASND moved up XX% when $SEPN failed in February, that's a few B in market cap.
Phase X trial has issues with vitamin D, urinary calcium, fluctuations in bone deposition but they can be explained.
HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE IMO If we can get PTH levels to normal levels, then the drug should work in patients with HypoPTH.
MBX 2109 is a prodrug bound to fatty acyl groups to extend it's half life (similar to GLP1 Analogs) It goes in, binds at two locations on albumin and converts to active drug in the body. First it binds to albumin at two locations, then it breaks down into the "active drug" (still bound to albumin, but ony at one spot). The phase X active drug concentrations = bound drug +free drug. Only free drug is effective. That's why the concentration of "active drug" is 1000x+ normal PTH levels.
We need to measure the "free drug" MBX management estimates .1% availability (.1% of total drug is free) based on the effects on PTH and calcium (see 10k). Semaglutide and other albumin bound molecules are in the similar range (see FDA review semaglutide)
The molecular weight of the drug itself is ~5.2kDa and the concentration is ~2 nMOL. (using the peptide sequence from the patent and the concentrations). Beep boop beep, do the math converting kDA to molar mass -> concentrations. the concentration is about XX ng/mL. THe concentration for PTH in Transcon PTH is 8-12 pg/mL.
I haven't found the dissociation constant (Kd, tells you ratio free drug to albumin), But it should be in the range reported by other molecules with the C16 tag. (i.e. liraglutide) which leads to >.1% availability and uM kd.
ASND commentary seems to confirm this "But the element of that is basic. A technology, which are basic as an active entity is an isolated PTH that stays XXXX% associated to basic the element of albumin.
I do not know how that ever can activate the phosphate receptor, how they can get into the brain and really restore normal industrious PTH level in the normal distribution you have out through the body. I'm also lost in the science there. " - ASND management
Actually, if they have .1% availability, that's in range of the ASND data. They should reach 8-12 pg/mL in steady state concentrations. At those levels, the drug should work.
MBX phase X trial is designed to reach steady state after a few weeks and titration up to higher levels if needed. If they reach a stat sig (40% delta), I think upside is a 20$, if they reach XX% or more difference vs Placebo, it;s 30$ and on a fail, it's down to < $X. I think it's XX% chance positive, a bet worth taking if sized properly. Readout Q3.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics mbx market cap $sepn $mbx