[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Ephemeral C🅰️pital🔋🔺 [@japdongsanee](/creator/twitter/japdongsanee) on x 1178 followers Created: 2025-06-27 04:42:47 UTC A not so quick & dirty Digital Turbine $APPS Investment Thesis - I originally invested in $APPS back in 2022 at $XX and exited in 2023 with a sizable loss. - Digital Turbine makes money in X ways X. On Device Solutions (ODS) - Digital Turbine partners with wireless carriers and OEMs to preinstall a bunch of apps onto android phones (roughly 800million devices) through their 'Ignite' software. Ignite allows placement of ads directly on the device, which is an unmatched value prop that OEMs and wireless carriers simply cannot replicate. Alongside Ignite, Digital Turbine has a software called 'SingleTap', which allows the installation of apps with a single click that boasts a great conversion rate (more on this later). X. Ad Growth Platform (AGP) - AGP is Digital Turbine’s suite of products and services for the in-app advertising ecosystem. Digital Turbine owns the full stack here - a Demand Side Platform (called Appreciate), a Supply Side Platform (Fyber), and their own Ad Network (AdColony). If these set of ingredients above reminds you of another stock with a ticker very similar to Digital Turbine’s (cough... AppLovin... cough), then you might have an idea of why I've reentered this company even after a big loss. - AI, AI, AI From AppLovin’s success, we saw that the perfect use case for Generative AI was targeted ad placement. But for this to work, you need proprietary data. Simply controlling both DSP demand and Supply Side mediation is not enough. AppLovin got this by directly owning many first party games that gave them access to critical information that they were not able to get due to Apple’s privacy rules. Digital Turbine's equivalent of this is the unique first-party device data of the 800million android devices they do installation on today. Digital Turbine is already leveraging their first-party data with AI as we speak. X. Management highlighted “meaningful progress on abilities to effectively utilize AI and Machine Learning to optimize the value of our first-party data”. A single data lake now aggregates install logs, engagement telemetry, ad-auction events and carrier/OEM metadata. X. A new version of Ignite with new AI features rolled out onto partner devices in FY25 Q3. X. Digital Turbine now feeds conversion-rate prediction and CPI bid-optimization models into its DSP so that advertisers using SingleTap only pay for predicted high-LTV users (aka they are going the extremely lucrative AppLovin route) X. Management said they are “transitioning to more brand-AI machine learning” as part of moving from waterfall to SDK bidding (aka they are going the extremely lucrative AppLovin route) - Now, imagine the Flywheel of their AI-enhanced Ad Ecosystem X. An Advertiser launches a campaign through DT’s DSP X. This ad campaign is delivered via a) App impressions on 3rd party publishers or b) a preload slot via Ignite or c) SingleTap install on a device X. If its via Ignite or SingleTap, DT earns ODS revenue X. If that app later shows ads, DT might also earn AGP revenue X. More installs and ad impressions => more data => improved ML targeting => improves both sides of business Digital Turbine’s real strategic moat is that it can cross-sell. They can use ODS to acquire users at high-conversion points (device-level) and then use AGP to monetize those users through ads after the app is opened. - Now… you might be asking - bro this sounds like AppLovin 2.0, why did this tank? The stock cratered from its all time highs (~$100+) to all time lows (~$1...) for X reasons X. Macro - lengthening device upgrade cycle times directly affected ODS growth and pullback in advertising spend led to drop in AGP growth X. Questionable integration post M&A - AdColony and Fyber integrations took time, cost a lot of money, and hit margins hard X. Debt - As much as I like Bill Stones, he and the rest of leadership seriously screwed up not issuing shares when the stock was flying high. The debt from M&A + questioning macro made the stock untouchable, and everyone exited. - The question now is "have the X red flags gone away"? X. Macro - On the supply side, ODS growth came in very strong, and most importantly, T-Mobile returned to them as a supplier. This validates that Digital Turbine does have a moat on the supply side — the ability to place ads on behalf of the OEMs when installing applications. Management has also hinted that they now have enough data to adjust accordingly to variances in smartphone update cycles. On the demand side, ad spend is strong as the underlying economy is strong right now. X. M&A - I view the ability to successfully do M&As as a testament to a company’s culture and work efficacy. Thus, if a company can successfully integrate other companies into their existing stack, then they are likely to be able to replicate that success again in the future. Even before the AdColony & Fyber deals, Digital Turbine bought out Mobile Posse and successfully launched Content Media for their ODS line. Yes, AdColony and Fyber took some time, but management has stated that they’ve retired out their legacy stack and are beginning to see results of owning the full end-to-end ad-tech platform. X. Debt - Digital Turbine was, and *still is* an asset light business with the ability to print cash. Management are talking about restructuring debt and have hinted at raising equity. This would make the investment a no brainer. Even if they don’t, FCF returned this past quarter, and if the growth trajectory resumes, then the debt should not be a concern in the long run. - Lastly, there are a few macro tailwinds blowing in Digital Turbine’s favor X. Regulatory & anti-monopoly pressures on Apple & Google. Naturally, Digital Turbine is in place to benefit if Apple is to ever loosen controls over the App Store. And Google will never get in the way of Digital Turbine. They’d have to effectively make Android closed-source (which would make X sense for Google). Also, app installs via SingleTap still benefit Google as it’s just a more streamlined way of installing apps. X. Rising demand of Alternative App Stores - large developers like Epic and Microsoft want alternative 3rd party options for app distribution. Digital Turbine can fill this void. X. Future Optionality - DT installs apps on mobile devices for now, but as we move more towards the edge, this may extend beyond to cars, TVs, home appliances, etc. In all, I think that Digital Turbine has all the pieces in place to form a semi-closed walled garden of ad-dominance in Android land. Long with an avg price of $X and will continue to add under $XX. NFA. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [android](/topic/android) [money](/topic/money) [investment](/topic/investment) [$apps](/topic/$apps) [Post Link](https://x.com/japdongsanee/status/1938457961455661461)
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Ephemeral C🅰️pital🔋🔺 @japdongsanee on x 1178 followers
Created: 2025-06-27 04:42:47 UTC
A not so quick & dirty Digital Turbine $APPS Investment Thesis
I originally invested in $APPS back in 2022 at $XX and exited in 2023 with a sizable loss.
Digital Turbine makes money in X ways
X. On Device Solutions (ODS) - Digital Turbine partners with wireless carriers and OEMs to preinstall a bunch of apps onto android phones (roughly 800million devices) through their 'Ignite' software.
Ignite allows placement of ads directly on the device, which is an unmatched value prop that OEMs and wireless carriers simply cannot replicate.
Alongside Ignite, Digital Turbine has a software called 'SingleTap', which allows the installation of apps with a single click that boasts a great conversion rate (more on this later).
X. Ad Growth Platform (AGP) - AGP is Digital Turbine’s suite of products and services for the in-app advertising ecosystem. Digital Turbine owns the full stack here - a Demand Side Platform (called Appreciate), a Supply Side Platform (Fyber), and their own Ad Network (AdColony).
If these set of ingredients above reminds you of another stock with a ticker very similar to Digital Turbine’s (cough... AppLovin... cough), then you might have an idea of why I've reentered this company even after a big loss.
- AI, AI, AI From AppLovin’s success, we saw that the perfect use case for Generative AI was targeted ad placement. But for this to work, you need proprietary data. Simply controlling both DSP demand and Supply Side mediation is not enough.
AppLovin got this by directly owning many first party games that gave them access to critical information that they were not able to get due to Apple’s privacy rules. Digital Turbine's equivalent of this is the unique first-party device data of the 800million android devices they do installation on today.
Digital Turbine is already leveraging their first-party data with AI as we speak.
X. Management highlighted “meaningful progress on abilities to effectively utilize AI and Machine Learning to optimize the value of our first-party data”. A single data lake now aggregates install logs, engagement telemetry, ad-auction events and carrier/OEM metadata.
X. A new version of Ignite with new AI features rolled out onto partner devices in FY25 Q3.
X. Digital Turbine now feeds conversion-rate prediction and CPI bid-optimization models into its DSP so that advertisers using SingleTap only pay for predicted high-LTV users (aka they are going the extremely lucrative AppLovin route)
X. Management said they are “transitioning to more brand-AI machine learning” as part of moving from waterfall to SDK bidding (aka they are going the extremely lucrative AppLovin route)
- Now, imagine the Flywheel of their AI-enhanced Ad Ecosystem
X. An Advertiser launches a campaign through DT’s DSP
X. This ad campaign is delivered via a) App impressions on 3rd party publishers or b) a preload slot via Ignite or c) SingleTap install on a device
X. If its via Ignite or SingleTap, DT earns ODS revenue
X. If that app later shows ads, DT might also earn AGP revenue
X. More installs and ad impressions => more data => improved ML targeting => improves both sides of business
Digital Turbine’s real strategic moat is that it can cross-sell. They can use ODS to acquire users at high-conversion points (device-level) and then use AGP to monetize those users through ads after the app is opened.
- Now… you might be asking - bro this sounds like AppLovin 2.0, why did this tank?
The stock cratered from its all time highs ($100+) to all time lows ($1...) for X reasons
X. Macro - lengthening device upgrade cycle times directly affected ODS growth and pullback in advertising spend led to drop in AGP growth
X. Questionable integration post M&A - AdColony and Fyber integrations took time, cost a lot of money, and hit margins hard
X. Debt - As much as I like Bill Stones, he and the rest of leadership seriously screwed up not issuing shares when the stock was flying high. The debt from M&A + questioning macro made the stock untouchable, and everyone exited.
- The question now is "have the X red flags gone away"? X. Macro - On the supply side, ODS growth came in very strong, and most importantly, T-Mobile returned to them as a supplier.
This validates that Digital Turbine does have a moat on the supply side — the ability to place ads on behalf of the OEMs when installing applications. Management has also hinted that they now have enough data to adjust accordingly to variances in smartphone update cycles.
On the demand side, ad spend is strong as the underlying economy is strong right now.
X. M&A - I view the ability to successfully do M&As as a testament to a company’s culture and work efficacy. Thus, if a company can successfully integrate other companies into their existing stack, then they are likely to be able to replicate that success again in the future.
Even before the AdColony & Fyber deals, Digital Turbine bought out Mobile Posse and successfully launched Content Media for their ODS line. Yes, AdColony and Fyber took some time, but management has stated that they’ve retired out their legacy stack and are beginning to see results of owning the full end-to-end ad-tech platform.
X. Debt - Digital Turbine was, and still is an asset light business with the ability to print cash. Management are talking about restructuring debt and have hinted at raising equity. This would make the investment a no brainer.
Even if they don’t, FCF returned this past quarter, and if the growth trajectory resumes, then the debt should not be a concern in the long run.
- Lastly, there are a few macro tailwinds blowing in Digital Turbine’s favor
X. Regulatory & anti-monopoly pressures on Apple & Google.
Naturally, Digital Turbine is in place to benefit if Apple is to ever loosen controls over the App Store.
And Google will never get in the way of Digital Turbine. They’d have to effectively make Android closed-source (which would make X sense for Google). Also, app installs via SingleTap still benefit Google as it’s just a more streamlined way of installing apps.
X. Rising demand of Alternative App Stores - large developers like Epic and Microsoft want alternative 3rd party options for app distribution. Digital Turbine can fill this void.
X. Future Optionality - DT installs apps on mobile devices for now, but as we move more towards the edge, this may extend beyond to cars, TVs, home appliances, etc.
In all, I think that Digital Turbine has all the pieces in place to form a semi-closed walled garden of ad-dominance in Android land.
Long with an avg price of $X and will continue to add under $XX. NFA.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics android money investment $apps