[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ [@DimitryNakhla](/creator/twitter/DimitryNakhla) on x 14.5K followers Created: 2025-06-24 15:05:45 UTC A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 28.96x โข10-Year Mean: 31.05x โขNTM FCF Yield: XXXX% โข10-Year Mean: XXXX% As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% MORE in FCF per share๐ง *** Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*) BALANCE SHEETโ โขCash & Short Term Inv: $9.85B โขLong-Term Debt: $3.98B $ASML has a strong balance sheet & 70x FFO Interest Coverage RETURN ON CAPITALโ โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX% RETURN ON EQUITYโ โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX% $ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business REVENUESโ โข2014: $7.09B โข2024: $29.28B โขCAGR: XXXXX% FREE CASH FLOW* โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value NORMALIZED EPSโ โข2014: $XXXX โข2024: $XXXXX โขCAGR: XXXXX% SHARE BUYBACKSโ โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 393.30M By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.7%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.3% (assuming X growth) MARGINSโ โขLTM Gross Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Operating Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Net Income Margins: XXXX% ***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & X% MORE in FCF per share Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a XXXXX% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.48%) required growth rate: 2025E: $XXXXX (22.0% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $XXXXX (13.8% YoY) 2027E: $XXXXX (21.3% YoY) $ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, letโs be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2027 with $35.00*** in EPS (~6% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples: 31x P/E: $1,085๐ต โฆ ~13.4% CAGR 30x P/E: $1,050๐ต โฆ ~12.0% CAGR 29x P/E: $1,015๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR 28x P/E: $980๐ต โฆ ~9.0% CAGR 27x P/E: $945๐ต โฆ ~7.5% CAGR As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) Today at $807๐ต $ASML appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility Less than X months ago (in the latest $ASML analysis) I stated: โToday at $687๐ต $ASML appears to be a strong consideration for investmentโ Of course $ASML was a much better deal then, yet those looking to accumulate today can account for a margin of safety by accumulating in tranches (e.g. 1/3 at $807, 1/3 at $710, 1/3 at $625) #stocks #investing ___ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [asml](/topic/asml) [quarterly earnings](/topic/quarterly-earnings) [$asml](/topic/$asml) [Post Link](https://x.com/DimitryNakhla/status/1937527574285963539)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ @DimitryNakhla on x 14.5K followers
Created: 2025-06-24 15:05:45 UTC
A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 28.96x โข10-Year Mean: 31.05x
โขNTM FCF Yield: XXXX% โข10-Year Mean: XXXX%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (Financials in USD)
BALANCE SHEETโ โขCash & Short Term Inv: $9.85B โขLong-Term Debt: $3.98B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 70x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ โข2014: $7.09B โข2024: $29.28B โขCAGR: XXXXX%
FREE CASH FLOW* โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
NORMALIZED EPSโ โข2014: $XXXX โข2024: $XXXXX โขCAGR: XXXXX%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 393.30M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.7%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.3% (assuming X growth)
MARGINSโ โขLTM Gross Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Operating Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Net Income Margins: XXXX%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & X% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a XXXXX% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.48%) required growth rate:
2025E: $XXXXX (22.0% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $XXXXX (13.8% YoY) 2027E: $XXXXX (21.3% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates 2 years out. HOWEVER, letโs be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2027 with $35.00*** in EPS (6% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
31x P/E: $1,085๐ต โฆ ~13.4% CAGR
30x P/E: $1,050๐ต โฆ ~12.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $1,015๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $980๐ต โฆ ~9.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $945๐ต โฆ ~7.5% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate)
Today at $807๐ต $ASML appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility
Less than X months ago (in the latest $ASML analysis) I stated:
โToday at $687๐ต $ASML appears to be a strong consideration for investmentโ
Of course $ASML was a much better deal then, yet those looking to accumulate today can account for a margin of safety by accumulating in tranches (e.g. 1/3 at $807, 1/3 at $710, 1/3 at $625)
#stocks #investing
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics asml quarterly earnings $asml