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![kingdomcapadv Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1380531647829917696.png) Kingdom Capital [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/twitter/kingdomcapadv) on x 10.7K followers
Created: 2025-06-13 19:55:34 UTC

Per Siyu's numbers, which are years from reality at SOC, you are paying $3B for about $645m of EBITDA and about $400m of FCF? This is for a single asset producer in California that is currently not selling any product and burning cash.

I could also buy $CNQ ($70B MC $80B EV), which trades for 7x forward EBITDA ($12B) and should generate $8-10B of diversified FCF a year. CNQ is actively buying back shares and paying dividends. They have similar low decline assets (~11% without growth investment) and their FCF conversion reflects them investing enough to grow production each year (unlike SOC, which is flat in the above scenario). 

So I'm paying 5/3x 2027/2029 for CNQ after they generate cash along the way, with more diversification and no restart risk?

If I want Saudi economics, maybe I just go buy Saudi Aramco for 7.5x forward? Believe it's something like 4x 2029 FCF?


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**Related Topics**
[$810b](/topic/$810b)
[$12b](/topic/$12b)
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[$70b](/topic/$70b)
[$cnq](/topic/$cnq)
[alternative investment](/topic/alternative-investment)
[$400m](/topic/$400m)
[$645m](/topic/$645m)

[Post Link](https://x.com/kingdomcapadv/status/1933614241962934447)