[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Kacper Piotr Kaminski [@Kacper_PK_CH](/creator/twitter/Kacper_PK_CH) on x 2998 followers Created: 2025-06-01 13:50:12 UTC Weekly Markets Update – June 2, 2025 “It is just appalling the nerve strain people put themselves under trying to buy something today and sell it tomorrow. It’s a small-win proposition. If you are a truly long-range investor, of which I am practically a vanishing breed, the profits are so tremendously greater.” Philip A. Fisher, author of “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” book, 1958. The quote by the great Philip A. Fisher reflects the philosophy of his book from 1958. He was a pioneering investment strategist known for his focus on long-term growth investing and deep qualitative analysis of companies, as outlined in his classic work "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits". Already at that time, in 1958, he considered himself a rare breed as a truly long-term investor. I can only wonder what he'd think about today's ways of the markets. That said, there is investing, but there is also trading. While investing, particularly long-term, value-driven, can be practiced by anyone willing to do the work, trading is a profession. It demands first of all time, work experience, but also a level of mental discipline, skill, and adaptability that rivals any high-stakes field. I fundamentally disagree with the notion that one must choose between being an investor or being a trader/speculator. In fact, I see combining both disciplines as a significant advantage. I’ve been thinking about it for a while, but this week, I took time to reflect on how in my mind wealth should be allocated in the markets - not just in terms of assets, but also time horizon and intent. Perhaps a few words here will help the you to see my perspective. I decided a long time ago that, in order to bring structure and clarity to my approach, I absolutely had to divide my capital into three distinct accounts, each serving a different strategic purpose: 1) Long-Term Portfolio (Retirement Horizon) This is my most stable and forward-looking allocation. It includes retirement funds, tax exempt or insurance-linked investments, gold, and inflation-protected assets. The goal here is long-term preservation and growth until the point of retirement, with minimal intervention and maximum compounding. 2) Medium-Term Portfolio (3–6 Year Horizon) Designed around opportunities that have a clear investment thesis but require time to play out - such as market cycles, sector rotations, or turnaround stories. This account is more dynamic – built on analysis and risk management. 3) Short-Term / Trading Account (Days to Months) This is the most active and tactical portion of my capital. It focuses on high-volatility trades, technical setups, and event-driven opportunities. High risk – high reward, it’s kept proportionally small and tightly managed. Well, enough of that - let’s take a look at where we are in the markets. Trading trend changes is always a challenge. Volatility picks up, and price action becomes noisy in both directions. Fundamentals begin to fade, and traps are set almost daily - for retail investors and institutional players alike (just look at their recent performance). Add to that the constant shifts in tariff and trade policy, often changing day to day, and it’s easy to see why conviction is hard to come by. The landscape is unstable - driven more by headlines than data. This isn’t a time for textbook strategies - liquidity pulses, geopolitical moves, and sentiment shifts are now the dominant forces. There’s no great playbook for this environment, just risk management. As earnings season is almost over, corporate buybacks are now in full force. That may offer some short-term support for equities as companies return to the market as buyers. At the same time, the recent GDP weakness was largely driven by companies front-loading imports ahead of expected trade policy shifts. That distortion has now passed, and we’re starting to see it reflected in stronger-looking economic data - even if it's just a statistical bounce, and not a structural shift. But that’s only one side of the equation. On the other side, liquidity risks are mounting. Ironically, resolving the debt ceiling could actually tighten financial conditions. Once a deal is struck, the U.S. Treasury is expected to rebuild its General Account by issuing a wave of new debt - effectively pulling cash out of the financial system. Another concern: corporate refinancing. A significant portion of debt taken on during the ultra-low rate environment is starting to come due. Many companies, especially smaller or growth-oriented ones, will be rolling that over in a much less forgiving interest rate climate. Margins will shrink, and fragile balance sheets will be exposed. Personally, I’d prefer equity markets to remain stable - not because I’m chasing a rally, but because stability supports household wealth, confidence, and long-term retirement portfolios. Lower prices can offer better entry points, yes - but they’re not essential. Opportunities exist in every market condition. What matters most now is patience, selectivity, and a clear view of when the regime truly changes - not just when it appears to. Stay safe out there! Key Economic Events This Week (Times in GMT -X / New York Time): Monday, June 2, 2025 • All Day: Holiday – New Zealand (Queen's Birthday) • All Day: Holiday – China (Dragon Boat Festival) • 09:45 (USD): S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 (USD): ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 (USD): ISM Manufacturing Prices (May) • 13:00 (USD): Fed Chair Powell Speaks Tuesday, June 3, 2025 • All Day: Holiday – South Korea (Presidential Election Day) • 05:00 (EUR): CPI YoY (May) • 10:00 (USD): JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) Wednesday, June 4, 2025 • 08:15 (USD): ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) • 09:45 (USD): S&P Global Services PMI (May) • 09:45 (CAD): Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision • 10:00 (USD): ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 (USD): ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May) • 10:30 (USD): Crude Oil Inventories Thursday, June 5, 2025 • 08:15 (EUR): ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) • 08:15 (EUR): ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) • 08:30 (USD): Initial Jobless Claims • 08:45 (EUR): ECB Press Conference Friday, June 6, 2025 • All Day: Holiday – South Korea (Memorial Day) • All Day: Holiday – Singapore (Eid al-Adha) • 08:30 (USD): Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May) • 08:30 (USD): Nonfarm Payrolls (May) • 08:30 (USD): Unemployment Rate (May) Stock Market Indices $SPX / $SPY, $NDX / $QQQ, $RUT / $IWM, $DAX, $FXI Due to the strong rebound from the April crash, major U.S. indices, $SPX and $NDX, have now entered a medium-term sideways trend. They are stretched at current levels, and I am certainly not a buyer here. I am not expecting a repeat of the April crash; what I anticipate is more of a healthy correction. Small caps, represented by $IWM, are performing worse, and while I believe there are individual gems in that space, I am not bullish on the index as a whole in this environment. If we do see a further selloff, I plan to continue building positions in companies on my long-term shopping list. These are high-quality businesses I have followed for years and want to own regardless of near-term volatility. That said, nothing is immune in a broad market decline. This is not the time to get complacent. Valuation still matters, and it is important to know exactly where your risk limits lie. Looking outside the United States, the MSCI EAFE Index, which represents developed markets excluding the United States and Canada, has recovered from the post-crash drop and is now trading above pre-April levels. While that is a positive sign, these markets are unlikely to escape unscathed if U.S. markets break down again. Currency dynamics also add risk, as several foreign currencies appear stretched against the U.S. dollar. China remains the outlier. The $FXI and $HSI have not fully recovered, and it is becoming increasingly clear that a true decoupling is underway. The technology companies that dominate these indices are increasingly aligned with domestic markets and policies. They remain competitive and well-managed, and it will be interesting to see how they evolve without relying on international capital flows. Forex $USD, $EUR, $CAD, $NZD, $AUD, $CHF, $JPY, $BTC There has been no shortage of chatter lately about a collapsing dollar, the end of American exceptionalism, the unraveling of the U.S.-led global order, and dysfunction in Washington. That narrative has saturated social media, filled mainstream headlines, and even landed on the cover of The Economist. When that happens, when every fear has been aired and amplified, it often marks a local bottom. This time looked no different. Still, the U.S. dollar has pulled back and now appears on track to retest recent lows. We are currently trading below the XXX level on the DXY, which holds significance from both a psychological and technical standpoint. While further volatility is likely, I believe the dollar is fairly valued at this stage. The broader issue is that the U.S. administration is doing little to support confidence in the currency. There is no clear messaging, no coordinated policy direction, and growing uncertainty around fiscal discipline. This kind of environment erodes trust, especially when coming from the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. It is one thing to pursue a weak dollar policy to support exports. It is another to project no policy at all. That lack of clarity has consequences, and it is already being reflected in capital flows. Could the dollar continue to fall? Yes, it could. But I am still waiting for a confirmed trend reversal before making any major allocation changes. For now, we are seeing some capital rotate into Europe and other international markets, which is adding pressure to the dollar. That trend might continue in the short term, but it would not be surprising to see flows shift back toward U.S. assets if conditions change. On the other hand the tariff front running seems to be over, so that portion of $USD dollar exiting U.S. is over. Outside of the dollar, the Swiss franc is gaining strength again. It continues to function as both a safe haven and a crisis hedge. If we enter another risk-off period, I would expect further upside there. I am also watching the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Australian dollar. All three have reclaimed key trend levels, and I am considering re-entering long positions if the setups hold. The Japanese yen remains more complex. Asset managers are holding a historically large long position, largely on the view that U.S. outperformance is fading and that a future Trump administration will push for a stronger yen. This idea has been floated by voices like Scott Bessent. Personally, I did not share that view, and now this has been confirmed by governments themselves. The United States has strategic reasons to keep Japan stable, both in terms of economic partnership and Treasury market participation. For now, I remain short the yen. It is a volatile trade and requires precise execution. Moves in this space can be sharp and quick, especially given the current crowded positioning. Lastly, Bitcoin has broken through its previous all-time high, if only briefly, before pulling back. The move was fast and we failed to hold above that level. Now consolidation or a deeper retracement becomes more likely. There has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets, but that has not held up. It continues to behave like a risk-on asset and simply moved earlier than the Nasdaq, as it often does. Even so, Bitcoin has outperformed nearly everything else over the past five to six years. That outperformance is exactly why it could become vulnerable if we see another broad sell-off. For now, momentum is intact, but discipline matters. This is not the time to chase blindly. It is the time to observe carefully and act with intention. Treasuries $SHY, $IEF, $TLT I am not bullish on long-term bonds. I can absolutely see yields heading much higher later this decade. There are simply more attractive places to allocate capital, or even just to park liquidity in the near term. Still, the level of panic in recent media coverage has been excessive. We have seen countless takes warning of a Treasury market collapse, right up until the 10-year yield touched 4.60%. That is a level we last saw in February. This is hardly uncharted territory. This is not to dismiss legitimate risks in the bond market, but the fear-driven headlines often go far beyond what the actual data justifies. Yields fluctuate. Sometimes they rise sharply. That alone does not mean the system is breaking. In the short to medium term, Treasury market direction will depend largely on the policies of the next administration. Tariffs, budget priorities, tax policy, and especially banking regulation will all be key drivers. What will likely matter more in the near term is how the new leadership approaches credit markets. If bank lending does not rebound soon, the money supply will continue to contract. Without that credit expansion, meaningful and sustained inflation becomes hard to achieve, even with tariffs adding short-term pressure on prices. That is what makes this bond environment complicated. There may be some cyclical inflation due to trade measures, but structurally, tighter credit conditions act as a counterforce. For now, I remain cautious. There may be tactical opportunities in certain areas of the curve, but this is not the time to buy into broad-brush narratives. The bond market is not collapsing. It is responding to a shifting policy and liquidity environment, and it will continue to adjust as those conditions evolve. Energies $CL, $NG Now that oil has broken its multi-year support, driven partly by OPEC easing production and at least a temporary economic slowdown, I have started accumulating the best oil and gas equities I have wanted to own for a long time. Many of these are now at least partially discounted. That said, prices could still move lower from here. We are already seeing supply declining in the U.S., and low prices will eventually cure low prices. In the near term, I am absolutely not ruling out the possibility of a geopolitical event involving the Middle East, especially since markets have largely become desensitized to bearish headlines from that region. As for natural gas, it moved to short-term sideways trend again. Here, I would not be surprised if any future deals with the U.S. administration involve LNG export agreements. If that is the case, I would expect a bid to return to the sector. Precious & Industrial Metals $GLD, $SLV, $HG, $PL Gold, as expected, was the go-to asset and proved to be the most resilient during the crash. We saw a retest of $3,000, followed by a sharp move higher to $XXXXX. Like I noted back then, real FOMO was finally creeping into the space. Sure enough, we corrected around $300, moved up again, and are now building a new triangle structure. It remains in a clear medium-term uptrend, and until that changes, silver could catch up in a big way. The strength in copper, given everything going on around the world, is all you need to know. I have to admit it has been much stronger than I expected, especially considering recent macro pressures and ongoing uncertainty around China. To be quite honest, the chart is very messy and it is hard to pin down the proper technical levels. As for platinum, dealers were finally closing out shorts after years of sideways malaise. That alone is enough of a signal for me to go long. I was also pleasantly surprised that both platinum group metals held up well during the recent crash. Little did I wait, we saw good move, now we have to close over $XXXXX to really establish a solid bullish momentum. Finally, one of my favorite long-term investments is uranium. The resilience of the spot price through the April crash has been impressive. In fact, we have now moved into a short-term uptrend for the first time since November 2024. The medium-term trend has changed as well. Now we also have a very strong boost with the news of new U.S. nuclear investment policy. However, I am expecting a stronger move in the second half of this year. Agriculture Let’s start with fertilizer costs. Nitrogen-based products like urea, and now also ammonium phosphate potash, are moving higher and, more importantly, have stabilized well above pre-pandemic levels. This is not just a temporary spike. If this trend continues, we are likely to see sustained upward pressure on agricultural commodity production costs. It is a key area to watch, especially as input prices are often a leading indicator for broader inflation across the food supply chain. Some grains may start to move higher in response. That said, I expect the path ahead for this sector to remain choppy. Weather, trade policy, and shifting supply chains all contribute to volatility. But where there is volatility, there is also opportunity. Dislocations from ongoing changes in global trade are beginning to emerge, and this could make the space far more interesting over the next few quarters. Timing will be critical. Lastly, cattle prices in the U.S. continue to push higher, and beef prices are following. Tariffs are not helping, adding cost pressures at a time when supply remains tight. Increasing domestic production is the logical solution, but that process is slow and requires real investment. It is not something that can be flipped on overnight. In the meantime, upward pressure on protein prices is likely to persist. Closing Message This week marks my 37th market analysis update. I’ve shared trades, setups, and insights, highlighting key moves and opportunities. The summary table remains clear and concise, covering indices, forex, treasuries, metals, energies, and agricultural commodities. That’s a wrap for this week. Markets are always shifting, so keep an eye on the big events and sudden moves, but don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. If you have any questions or want to dig deeper into anything, feel free to reach out.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [stocks](/topic/stocks) [fisher](/topic/fisher) [breed](/topic/breed) [investment](/topic/investment) [Post Link](https://x.com/Kacper_PK_CH/status/1929173639372628089)
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Kacper Piotr Kaminski @Kacper_PK_CH on x 2998 followers
Created: 2025-06-01 13:50:12 UTC
Weekly Markets Update – June 2, 2025
“It is just appalling the nerve strain people put themselves under trying to buy something today and sell it tomorrow. It’s a small-win proposition. If you are a truly long-range investor, of which I am practically a vanishing breed, the profits are so tremendously greater.”
Philip A. Fisher, author of “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” book, 1958.
The quote by the great Philip A. Fisher reflects the philosophy of his book from 1958. He was a pioneering investment strategist known for his focus on long-term growth investing and deep qualitative analysis of companies, as outlined in his classic work "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits". Already at that time, in 1958, he considered himself a rare breed as a truly long-term investor. I can only wonder what he'd think about today's ways of the markets.
That said, there is investing, but there is also trading. While investing, particularly long-term, value-driven, can be practiced by anyone willing to do the work, trading is a profession. It demands first of all time, work experience, but also a level of mental discipline, skill, and adaptability that rivals any high-stakes field.
I fundamentally disagree with the notion that one must choose between being an investor or being a trader/speculator. In fact, I see combining both disciplines as a significant advantage.
I’ve been thinking about it for a while, but this week, I took time to reflect on how in my mind wealth should be allocated in the markets - not just in terms of assets, but also time horizon and intent. Perhaps a few words here will help the you to see my perspective.
I decided a long time ago that, in order to bring structure and clarity to my approach, I absolutely had to divide my capital into three distinct accounts, each serving a different strategic purpose:
Long-Term Portfolio (Retirement Horizon) This is my most stable and forward-looking allocation. It includes retirement funds, tax exempt or insurance-linked investments, gold, and inflation-protected assets. The goal here is long-term preservation and growth until the point of retirement, with minimal intervention and maximum compounding.
Medium-Term Portfolio (3–6 Year Horizon) Designed around opportunities that have a clear investment thesis but require time to play out - such as market cycles, sector rotations, or turnaround stories. This account is more dynamic – built on analysis and risk management.
Short-Term / Trading Account (Days to Months) This is the most active and tactical portion of my capital. It focuses on high-volatility trades, technical setups, and event-driven opportunities. High risk – high reward, it’s kept proportionally small and tightly managed.
Well, enough of that - let’s take a look at where we are in the markets.
Trading trend changes is always a challenge. Volatility picks up, and price action becomes noisy in both directions. Fundamentals begin to fade, and traps are set almost daily - for retail investors and institutional players alike (just look at their recent performance).
Add to that the constant shifts in tariff and trade policy, often changing day to day, and it’s easy to see why conviction is hard to come by. The landscape is unstable - driven more by headlines than data. This isn’t a time for textbook strategies - liquidity pulses, geopolitical moves, and sentiment shifts are now the dominant forces. There’s no great playbook for this environment, just risk management.
As earnings season is almost over, corporate buybacks are now in full force. That may offer some short-term support for equities as companies return to the market as buyers. At the same time, the recent GDP weakness was largely driven by companies front-loading imports ahead of expected trade policy shifts. That distortion has now passed, and we’re starting to see it reflected in stronger-looking economic data - even if it's just a statistical bounce, and not a structural shift.
But that’s only one side of the equation.
On the other side, liquidity risks are mounting. Ironically, resolving the debt ceiling could actually tighten financial conditions. Once a deal is struck, the U.S. Treasury is expected to rebuild its General Account by issuing a wave of new debt - effectively pulling cash out of the financial system.
Another concern: corporate refinancing. A significant portion of debt taken on during the ultra-low rate environment is starting to come due. Many companies, especially smaller or growth-oriented ones, will be rolling that over in a much less forgiving interest rate climate. Margins will shrink, and fragile balance sheets will be exposed.
Personally, I’d prefer equity markets to remain stable - not because I’m chasing a rally, but because stability supports household wealth, confidence, and long-term retirement portfolios. Lower prices can offer better entry points, yes - but they’re not essential. Opportunities exist in every market condition.
What matters most now is patience, selectivity, and a clear view of when the regime truly changes - not just when it appears to.
Stay safe out there!
Key Economic Events This Week (Times in GMT -X / New York Time):
Monday, June 2, 2025 • All Day: Holiday – New Zealand (Queen's Birthday) • All Day: Holiday – China (Dragon Boat Festival) • 09:45 (USD): S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 (USD): ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 (USD): ISM Manufacturing Prices (May) • 13:00 (USD): Fed Chair Powell Speaks Tuesday, June 3, 2025 • All Day: Holiday – South Korea (Presidential Election Day) • 05:00 (EUR): CPI YoY (May) • 10:00 (USD): JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) Wednesday, June 4, 2025 • 08:15 (USD): ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) • 09:45 (USD): S&P Global Services PMI (May) • 09:45 (CAD): Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision • 10:00 (USD): ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 (USD): ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May) • 10:30 (USD): Crude Oil Inventories Thursday, June 5, 2025 • 08:15 (EUR): ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) • 08:15 (EUR): ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) • 08:30 (USD): Initial Jobless Claims • 08:45 (EUR): ECB Press Conference Friday, June 6, 2025 • All Day: Holiday – South Korea (Memorial Day) • All Day: Holiday – Singapore (Eid al-Adha) • 08:30 (USD): Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May) • 08:30 (USD): Nonfarm Payrolls (May) • 08:30 (USD): Unemployment Rate (May)
Stock Market Indices $SPX / $SPY, $NDX / $QQQ, $RUT / $IWM, $DAX, $FXI
Due to the strong rebound from the April crash, major U.S. indices, $SPX and $NDX, have now entered a medium-term sideways trend. They are stretched at current levels, and I am certainly not a buyer here. I am not expecting a repeat of the April crash; what I anticipate is more of a healthy correction. Small caps, represented by $IWM, are performing worse, and while I believe there are individual gems in that space, I am not bullish on the index as a whole in this environment.
If we do see a further selloff, I plan to continue building positions in companies on my long-term shopping list. These are high-quality businesses I have followed for years and want to own regardless of near-term volatility. That said, nothing is immune in a broad market decline. This is not the time to get complacent. Valuation still matters, and it is important to know exactly where your risk limits lie.
Looking outside the United States, the MSCI EAFE Index, which represents developed markets excluding the United States and Canada, has recovered from the post-crash drop and is now trading above pre-April levels. While that is a positive sign, these markets are unlikely to escape unscathed if U.S. markets break down again. Currency dynamics also add risk, as several foreign currencies appear stretched against the U.S. dollar.
China remains the outlier. The $FXI and $HSI have not fully recovered, and it is becoming increasingly clear that a true decoupling is underway. The technology companies that dominate these indices are increasingly aligned with domestic markets and policies. They remain competitive and well-managed, and it will be interesting to see how they evolve without relying on international capital flows.
Forex $USD, $EUR, $CAD, $NZD, $AUD, $CHF, $JPY, $BTC
There has been no shortage of chatter lately about a collapsing dollar, the end of American exceptionalism, the unraveling of the U.S.-led global order, and dysfunction in Washington. That narrative has saturated social media, filled mainstream headlines, and even landed on the cover of The Economist. When that happens, when every fear has been aired and amplified, it often marks a local bottom. This time looked no different.
Still, the U.S. dollar has pulled back and now appears on track to retest recent lows. We are currently trading below the XXX level on the DXY, which holds significance from both a psychological and technical standpoint. While further volatility is likely, I believe the dollar is fairly valued at this stage.
The broader issue is that the U.S. administration is doing little to support confidence in the currency. There is no clear messaging, no coordinated policy direction, and growing uncertainty around fiscal discipline. This kind of environment erodes trust, especially when coming from the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. It is one thing to pursue a weak dollar policy to support exports. It is another to project no policy at all. That lack of clarity has consequences, and it is already being reflected in capital flows.
Could the dollar continue to fall? Yes, it could. But I am still waiting for a confirmed trend reversal before making any major allocation changes. For now, we are seeing some capital rotate into Europe and other international markets, which is adding pressure to the dollar. That trend might continue in the short term, but it would not be surprising to see flows shift back toward U.S. assets if conditions change. On the other hand the tariff front running seems to be over, so that portion of $USD dollar exiting U.S. is over.
Outside of the dollar, the Swiss franc is gaining strength again. It continues to function as both a safe haven and a crisis hedge. If we enter another risk-off period, I would expect further upside there. I am also watching the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Australian dollar. All three have reclaimed key trend levels, and I am considering re-entering long positions if the setups hold.
The Japanese yen remains more complex. Asset managers are holding a historically large long position, largely on the view that U.S. outperformance is fading and that a future Trump administration will push for a stronger yen. This idea has been floated by voices like Scott Bessent. Personally, I did not share that view, and now this has been confirmed by governments themselves. The United States has strategic reasons to keep Japan stable, both in terms of economic partnership and Treasury market participation. For now, I remain short the yen. It is a volatile trade and requires precise execution. Moves in this space can be sharp and quick, especially given the current crowded positioning.
Lastly, Bitcoin has broken through its previous all-time high, if only briefly, before pulling back. The move was fast and we failed to hold above that level. Now consolidation or a deeper retracement becomes more likely.
There has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets, but that has not held up. It continues to behave like a risk-on asset and simply moved earlier than the Nasdaq, as it often does. Even so, Bitcoin has outperformed nearly everything else over the past five to six years. That outperformance is exactly why it could become vulnerable if we see another broad sell-off. For now, momentum is intact, but discipline matters. This is not the time to chase blindly. It is the time to observe carefully and act with intention.
Treasuries $SHY, $IEF, $TLT
I am not bullish on long-term bonds. I can absolutely see yields heading much higher later this decade. There are simply more attractive places to allocate capital, or even just to park liquidity in the near term. Still, the level of panic in recent media coverage has been excessive. We have seen countless takes warning of a Treasury market collapse, right up until the 10-year yield touched 4.60%. That is a level we last saw in February. This is hardly uncharted territory.
This is not to dismiss legitimate risks in the bond market, but the fear-driven headlines often go far beyond what the actual data justifies. Yields fluctuate. Sometimes they rise sharply. That alone does not mean the system is breaking. In the short to medium term, Treasury market direction will depend largely on the policies of the next administration. Tariffs, budget priorities, tax policy, and especially banking regulation will all be key drivers.
What will likely matter more in the near term is how the new leadership approaches credit markets. If bank lending does not rebound soon, the money supply will continue to contract. Without that credit expansion, meaningful and sustained inflation becomes hard to achieve, even with tariffs adding short-term pressure on prices.
That is what makes this bond environment complicated. There may be some cyclical inflation due to trade measures, but structurally, tighter credit conditions act as a counterforce. For now, I remain cautious. There may be tactical opportunities in certain areas of the curve, but this is not the time to buy into broad-brush narratives. The bond market is not collapsing. It is responding to a shifting policy and liquidity environment, and it will continue to adjust as those conditions evolve.
Energies $CL, $NG
Now that oil has broken its multi-year support, driven partly by OPEC easing production and at least a temporary economic slowdown, I have started accumulating the best oil and gas equities I have wanted to own for a long time. Many of these are now at least partially discounted. That said, prices could still move lower from here. We are already seeing supply declining in the U.S., and low prices will eventually cure low prices.
In the near term, I am absolutely not ruling out the possibility of a geopolitical event involving the Middle East, especially since markets have largely become desensitized to bearish headlines from that region.
As for natural gas, it moved to short-term sideways trend again. Here, I would not be surprised if any future deals with the U.S. administration involve LNG export agreements. If that is the case, I would expect a bid to return to the sector.
Precious & Industrial Metals $GLD, $SLV, $HG, $PL
Gold, as expected, was the go-to asset and proved to be the most resilient during the crash. We saw a retest of $3,000, followed by a sharp move higher to $XXXXX. Like I noted back then, real FOMO was finally creeping into the space. Sure enough, we corrected around $300, moved up again, and are now building a new triangle structure. It remains in a clear medium-term uptrend, and until that changes, silver could catch up in a big way.
The strength in copper, given everything going on around the world, is all you need to know. I have to admit it has been much stronger than I expected, especially considering recent macro pressures and ongoing uncertainty around China. To be quite honest, the chart is very messy and it is hard to pin down the proper technical levels.
As for platinum, dealers were finally closing out shorts after years of sideways malaise. That alone is enough of a signal for me to go long. I was also pleasantly surprised that both platinum group metals held up well during the recent crash. Little did I wait, we saw good move, now we have to close over $XXXXX to really establish a solid bullish momentum.
Finally, one of my favorite long-term investments is uranium. The resilience of the spot price through the April crash has been impressive. In fact, we have now moved into a short-term uptrend for the first time since November 2024. The medium-term trend has changed as well. Now we also have a very strong boost with the news of new U.S. nuclear investment policy. However, I am expecting a stronger move in the second half of this year.
Agriculture
Let’s start with fertilizer costs. Nitrogen-based products like urea, and now also ammonium phosphate potash, are moving higher and, more importantly, have stabilized well above pre-pandemic levels. This is not just a temporary spike. If this trend continues, we are likely to see sustained upward pressure on agricultural commodity production costs. It is a key area to watch, especially as input prices are often a leading indicator for broader inflation across the food supply chain.
Some grains may start to move higher in response. That said, I expect the path ahead for this sector to remain choppy. Weather, trade policy, and shifting supply chains all contribute to volatility. But where there is volatility, there is also opportunity. Dislocations from ongoing changes in global trade are beginning to emerge, and this could make the space far more interesting over the next few quarters. Timing will be critical.
Lastly, cattle prices in the U.S. continue to push higher, and beef prices are following. Tariffs are not helping, adding cost pressures at a time when supply remains tight. Increasing domestic production is the logical solution, but that process is slow and requires real investment. It is not something that can be flipped on overnight. In the meantime, upward pressure on protein prices is likely to persist.
Closing Message
This week marks my 37th market analysis update. I’ve shared trades, setups, and insights, highlighting key moves and opportunities. The summary table remains clear and concise, covering indices, forex, treasuries, metals, energies, and agricultural commodities.
That’s a wrap for this week. Markets are always shifting, so keep an eye on the big events and sudden moves, but don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. If you have any questions or want to dig deeper into anything, feel free to reach out.
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