[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Ray Wang [@rwang07](/creator/twitter/rwang07) on x 14.2K followers Created: 2025-05-27 21:23:22 UTC Sell-side on Alchip Technology: Volume shipments of Trainium X will ramp from early 2026, with total units projected at XXX – XXX million. The research team originally expected IDM customers’ AI ASIC projects to add meaningfully to 2025 revenue. Yet, due to repeated downward revisions to their capacity‑ramp plans, it has left the contribution below earlier projections. In addition, the X nm AI chip for a major CSP customer has entered the late stage of its product cycle, so volume began to decline in Q1. Despite these negatives, our checks show that North‑American clients continue to post very robust demand for HPC and AI applications and are aggressively adopting N5, N3 and even N2 process technologies. At present, the company has secured several design wins at these nodes. In automotive, a mainland‑China customer has decided to place incremental orders—well above the original plan—for its X nm ADAS device, with mass production slated for year‑end. The highly watched next‑generation X nm program for the same CSP customer completed tape‑out in Q1 and is expected to start volume production in early Q1 2026. All in, we now forecast 2025 revenue to decline XXXX % year‑on‑year. Nevertheless, a larger contribution from NRE services and better pricing support from suppliers should lift the gross margin to XXXX % and push EPS up to NT$ 82.06, beating our prior estimate. Given the cash‐raising share issue already approved to fund longer‑term growth, we see no immediate financing needs. Volume shipments of the CSP’s X nm AI ASIC (Trainium 3) will ramp from early 2026, with total units projected at XXX – XXX million—above our previous forecast. NRE revenue should continue to benefit from HPC/AI demand, while ongoing process advances provide an additional growth engine. A X nm program for an emerging customer will also support 2026 sales; leading‑edge nodes typically require two to three shuttles even for the same design, so each project commands materially higher dollar content than earlier generations. On the mainland‑China side, the ADAS project will keep contributing in 2026. For the CSP customer’s subsequent X nm program, the ultimate end‑customer has yet to be finalized, but the company is confident in its service quality and pricing. Overall, we expect revenue growth to re‑accelerate sharply in 2026. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [coins ai](/topic/coins-ai) [stocks technology](/topic/stocks-technology) [$3661tw](/topic/$3661tw) [Post Link](https://x.com/rwang07/status/1927475743384101284)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Ray Wang @rwang07 on x 14.2K followers
Created: 2025-05-27 21:23:22 UTC
Sell-side on Alchip Technology: Volume shipments of Trainium X will ramp from early 2026, with total units projected at XXX – XXX million.
The research team originally expected IDM customers’ AI ASIC projects to add meaningfully to 2025 revenue. Yet, due to repeated downward revisions to their capacity‑ramp plans, it has left the contribution below earlier projections. In addition, the X nm AI chip for a major CSP customer has entered the late stage of its product cycle, so volume began to decline in Q1.
Despite these negatives, our checks show that North‑American clients continue to post very robust demand for HPC and AI applications and are aggressively adopting N5, N3 and even N2 process technologies. At present, the company has secured several design wins at these nodes. In automotive, a mainland‑China customer has decided to place incremental orders—well above the original plan—for its X nm ADAS device, with mass production slated for year‑end.
The highly watched next‑generation X nm program for the same CSP customer completed tape‑out in Q1 and is expected to start volume production in early Q1 2026. All in, we now forecast 2025 revenue to decline XXXX % year‑on‑year. Nevertheless, a larger contribution from NRE services and better pricing support from suppliers should lift the gross margin to XXXX % and push EPS up to NT$ 82.06, beating our prior estimate. Given the cash‐raising share issue already approved to fund longer‑term growth, we see no immediate financing needs.
Volume shipments of the CSP’s X nm AI ASIC (Trainium 3) will ramp from early 2026, with total units projected at XXX – XXX million—above our previous forecast. NRE revenue should continue to benefit from HPC/AI demand, while ongoing process advances provide an additional growth engine. A X nm program for an emerging customer will also support 2026 sales; leading‑edge nodes typically require two to three shuttles even for the same design, so each project commands materially higher dollar content than earlier generations.
On the mainland‑China side, the ADAS project will keep contributing in 2026. For the CSP customer’s subsequent X nm program, the ultimate end‑customer has yet to be finalized, but the company is confident in its service quality and pricing. Overall, we expect revenue growth to re‑accelerate sharply in 2026.
XXXXX engagements
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