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![scaling01 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1825243643529027584.png) Lisan al Gaib [@scaling01](/creator/twitter/scaling01) on x 17.6K followers
Created: 2025-01-02 00:09:26 UTC

my AI predictions for 2025:
 - at least one lab will declare AGI and mentions ASI
 - Q1: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, META, Qwen and Mistral model fiesta ( it will be heaven )
 - agents / computer use takes off
 - release of Claude 4, Gemini 3, GPT-5, Grok X (or whatever they call their giant ~5-20 trillion parameter models)
 - release of o3, o4, and o5
 - open-source replication of o3
 - the Frontier Math benchmark will be mostly solved (>80%)
 - SWE-bench will be solved (>90%)
 - ARC-AGI X will be mostly solved (>80%) within X months of it's release
 - 10+ million context length models

my wishful thinking:
Someone (Anthropic) figures out efficient test-time-training without catastrophic forgetting using mech interp - this will be the next paradigm for 2026 and lead to superintelligence


XXXXXXX engagements

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**Related Topics**
[o3](/topic/o3)
[claude](/topic/claude)
[qwen](/topic/qwen)
[meta](/topic/meta)
[open ai](/topic/open-ai)
[mentions](/topic/mentions)
[agi](/topic/agi)
[coins ai](/topic/coins-ai)

[Post Link](https://x.com/scaling01/status/1874608907508752546)