#  @yieldsearcher Mr. VIX Mr. VIX posts on X about in the, market, inflation, ai the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +269% - [--] Month [---------] +249% - [--] Months [----------] +274% - [--] Year [----------] +3,491% ### Mentions: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/posts_active)  - [--] Week [---] -14% - [--] Month [---] +57% - [--] Months [-----] +88% - [--] Year [-----] +234% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +1.40% - [--] Month [------] +8.40% - [--] Months [------] +93% - [--] Year [------] +605% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #419 [countries](/list/countries) 13.23% [stocks](/list/stocks) 8.03% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 6.72% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #5458 [currencies](/list/currencies) 3.47% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) #1091 [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.87% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 0.87% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 0.65% **Social topic influence** [in the](/topic/in-the) 9.76%, [market](/topic/market) #1824, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #244, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.64%, [japan](/topic/japan) 5.64%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 4.77%, [china](/topic/china) 4.56%, [deflation](/topic/deflation) #20, [crypto](/topic/crypto) 3.69%, [gold](/topic/gold) 3.69% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@garyhaubold](/creator/undefined) [@yieldsearcher](/creator/undefined) [@noruserious](/creator/undefined) [@jz281c](/creator/undefined) [@stockmomo](/creator/undefined) [@fixedincquant](/creator/undefined) [@winninglibtards](/creator/undefined) [@texasoncologist](/creator/undefined) [@tradfidiguy](/creator/undefined) [@cessnadriver50](/creator/undefined) [@derivativesdon](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@margincall4](/creator/undefined) [@econstratpb](/creator/undefined) [@tagthatstock](/creator/undefined) [@jellycrypto](/creator/undefined) [@jeremie0117](/creator/undefined) [@doejistar](/creator/undefined) [@winnerinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@american_42069](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Something notable in the crypto space: Tether has been depegged since 12/15" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016695568475598886) 2026-01-29T02:11Z 21.2K followers, 10.9K engagements "The initial Jan [----] NFP was +143K; now -48K. Not sure why folks take offense at others thinking the NFP is garbage. That is conclusive at this pt. Just keep that thought away from trading and even from bad data you can still id a trend of goods outperforming services ex-HC. For the payroll report the headline number was clearly better than expected. Thats quite good. The January report includes benchmark revisions though and that reduced employment by about 900K. Here's the revision table showing the distribution. https://t.co/rmcjMRvhtv For the payroll report the headline number was clearly" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021953345590898770) 2026-02-12T14:23Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "When a university with a $53 billion endowment needs to tap the bond market in this environment it just tells you just how illiquid their investments really are" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909296235393302698) 2025-04-07T17:24Z 21.2K followers, 311.9K engagements "Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over [--] yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is. A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946270722231292333) 2025-07-18T18:07Z 21.2K followers, 356.8K engagements "Ironically despite the carnage in software which is private credits largest sector exposure (15-25%) today was a good day for BDCs generally up 1% today. Seems like no algos have figured out this link yet. SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp https://t.co/1S4K5UGcQR SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2007199564445692336) 2026-01-02T21:17Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "So many bank CEOs warn that a credit card rate cap would cause a recession by limiting consumer credit access. I agree with that argument but if our marginal incremental consumption growth comes with a 25% interest rate px tag I struggle to see how that growth is worth it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2014497725895577774) 2026-01-23T00:37Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "All he needs to see BOJ GOV UEDA: NOT SEEING THAT WE ARE BEHIND-THE-CURVE NOW BOJ GOV UEDA: NOT SEEING THAT WE ARE BEHIND-THE-CURVE NOW" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2014673475877716413) 2026-01-23T12:16Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "This is the current dilemma in the market. Trump wants low rates and a weak dollar. However the global bond and FX markets are only willing to give him one of them while the equity market is pricing in as if he will get both through a cyclicals rally. One of them is wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2014818706426077246) 2026-01-23T21:53Z 21K followers, 12.2K engagements "Lets hope the nations grid makes it through the next [--] hours intact. Otherwise the public backlash against data centers could become very energized" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015230049213944088) 2026-01-25T01:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "The only thing that honestly surprises me about $5000 gold and $100 silver is that nothing broke along the way not even one high-profile hedge fund casualty. $20t of market value creation over the past [--] months and no one got carried out on the shorts. Remarkable" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015570981142601965) 2026-01-25T23:42Z 21K followers, 247.5K engagements "Seeing lots of FinTwit folks cashing out PMs today even physical. Never wrong to take profits but I wouldnt call this a sentiment shift or a top. GLD + SLV = $230B or 0.6% of total mkt cap. Retail does not move this mkt. Govts and TPTB do" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015958671402967368) 2026-01-27T01:22Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Btw an intraday swing of $15 (13%) in both directions in the silver mkt today and no one is asking whether something is broken beneath the surface. The very high price impact suggests relatively thin order-book depth. Suggests dealers pulling back; liquidity is thinning" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015970191859957855) 2026-01-27T02:08Z 20.9K followers, 16.6K engagements "You thought Trump was going to let healthcare insurance companies benefit from 10% credit card rate BREAKING: UnitedHealth stock $UNH falls over -8% after a new report says the US will hold payments to private Medicare plans flat next year. https://t.co/OIvsN3Ryov BREAKING: UnitedHealth stock $UNH falls over -8% after a new report says the US will hold payments to private Medicare plans flat next year. https://t.co/OIvsN3Ryov" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015970665644294232) 2026-01-27T02:10Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Worth noting that in April last yr when dollar and rates were getting sold off gold was the only metal that took off while other metals (incl silver) performed in line with the equities" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016145635204804752) 2026-01-27T13:45Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles matter more. 1985-87 (Plaza Accd) DXY fell [-----] yet cPCE dropped from [---] to [---]. From 02-08 DXY fell 12070; inflation stayed 2%. Inverse example: [------] DXY rose [-----] as PCE surged 1.7%5.6%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016312758224957645) 2026-01-28T00:49Z 20.9K followers, 16.3K engagements "Worth noting: - Goods/imports are only 20% of CPI in an 80% services economy - Post-Plaza $30 oil capped inflation - Must consider shift in demand (less discretionary spend offsets price hikes) - Weak DXY = deflation in the RoW (esp EU) partially offsetting inflation pressure. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles matter more. 1985-87 (Plaza Accd) DXY fell [-----] yet cPCE dropped from [---] to [---]. From 02-08 DXY fell 12070; inflation stayed 2%. Inverse example: [------] DXY rose [-----] as PCE surged 1.7%5.6%. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016507373678972952) 2026-01-28T13:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@GONOGO_Korea You know I went to Seoul this summer. I was shocked to find Galbitang at 20K krw" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016511552749285883) 2026-01-28T13:59Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty uneventful presser so far (besides pleading the Fifth) his commentaries on inflation is notably dovish. - If you take tariffs out core inflation is just above 2%. - Most of the tariff has now been baked in at this stage - Seeing disinflation in services" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016599758660415580) 2026-01-28T19:50Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Always a reminder: During the FOMC press conference Powell represents the voice of the FOMC as a whole not his personal views. Asking personal questions is therefore not appropriate. Private interviews are fair game but not in this setting" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016602487101198511) 2026-01-28T20:01Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Powell: Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to the labor market have diminished. Agreed. However if inflation is near 2% absent tariffs the risk here is a downside inflation surprise once tariff effects roll off this summer and OER begins to correct lower" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016604977263735088) 2026-01-28T20:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "I see no fault with this impeccable logic. Blackrock 2025: Buy Bitcoin as a safety hedge Bitcoin falls 30% Blackrock 2026: Bonds are no longer a safety hedge 👉Inverse Blackrock play is to buy bonds Blackrock 2025: Buy Bitcoin as a safety hedge Bitcoin falls 30% Blackrock 2026: Bonds are no longer a safety hedge 👉Inverse Blackrock play is to buy bonds" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016608074069422105) 2026-01-28T20:23Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Not sure I should be rejoicing or be worried" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016613748891369982) 2026-01-28T20:45Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Color me shocked I maintain the true winners from this are going to be those with properties in Westchester Nassau Hudson and Bergen counties. 🚨 JUST IN: New Yorkers are in a state of SHOCK after Ugandan Mayor Zohran Mamdani says NYC now faces a "fiscal crisis at a scale of the GREAT RECESSION" His plan: "Raising taxes on wealthy New Yorkers and profitable companies." Yikes. Best of luck NYC.https://t.co/CchzRUwnjo 🚨 JUST IN: New Yorkers are in a state of SHOCK after Ugandan Mayor Zohran Mamdani says NYC now faces a "fiscal crisis at a scale of the GREAT RECESSION" His plan: "Raising taxes" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016686847494148407) 2026-01-29T01:36Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Market seems very sure that the attack on Iran is imminent (this wknd)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016877624673325567) 2026-01-29T14:14Z 21K followers, 11.6K engagements "Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016882479731228864) 2026-01-29T14:33Z 21K followers, 15.7K engagements "So the market collectively decided MSFTs whiff = death of the software" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016892329618014523) 2026-01-29T15:12Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "So if gold and silver are turning out to be levered equity betas and TLT is down on a day like this what is the flight to safety asset" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016896906685759800) 2026-01-29T15:31Z 20.9K followers, 36.9K engagements "According to ChatGPT there are 3m employees in the software industry with another 8m indirect jobs tied to it (back office marketing hardware real estate etc.). If AI does render software obsolete the disruption (and deflation) would be one for the ages" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016902160236024046) 2026-01-29T15:52Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Another chunky layoff announcement. And this one is from the very sector that is supposed to show the first signs of cyclical green shoots. Chemical maker Dow is cutting [----] jobs will rely on AI #MacroEdge Chemical maker Dow is cutting [----] jobs will rely on AI #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016910076024349080) 2026-01-29T16:23Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Significant relative outperformance in IWM value/cyclicals sector ETFs and copper today says that this market selloff is driven more by AI/Sftw narratives rather than worry on global growth. TLT needs deflation or growth breakdown to work. 2Y barely budging as well" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016916381334122801) 2026-01-29T16:48Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Worth keeping an eye on. #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016965166215147693) 2026-01-29T20:02Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "A rule of thumb: companies typically do not cut staff when there is strong confidence in topline growth. Hence Mastercard laying off employees against a narrative of resilient consumer spending raises a question mark. Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016978435101376667) 2026-01-29T20:55Z 21.1K followers, 41.3K engagements "Would be pretty funny if AAPL missing on U.S. sales but finally beating on China sales ends up being the signal of a cyclical inflection of the two economies" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016999223607120011) 2026-01-29T22:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Mortgage rates going to sub-3% (maybe even sub-2%) is the only way this housing market works itself out without causing a px decline. So we are going to compress the mortgage/long rates extra hard before the midterm. That is practically the message here. Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're not gonna destroy the value of their homes so that somebody who didn't work very hard can buy a home." https://t.co/V3cviRAO3F Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017010151740354879) 2026-01-29T23:01Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "I agree with this and the last sentence esp. It has to be a real fast furious rates rally but not recessionary. I am with Dave Lev that there is a window to have this immaculate non-recessionary dis/deflation landing but the window is not wide either. The Fed being late is the biggest risk imp. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017017766558028157 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017017766558028157" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017017766558028157) 2026-01-29T23:31Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "You do realize you are talking to a fixed income analyst with a time horizon of a next Fed cycle For me to pontificate far into this Nov was already a stretch But joke aside for there to be a sharp rate reduction without a demand shock we need to see some enormous productivity boost sometime this yr. Maybe this whole thing is predicated on a massive AI adaption coming up and we are all gonna be happily jobless by this time next yr. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017018660666126510 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017018660666126510" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017018660666126510) 2026-01-29T23:34Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "How to bring mortgage rates down: - Deflation (underway; look at Cleveland Nowcast or Truflation) - YCC (stablecoin has a role here) - GSEs (+ Fed) buying more MBS (constraint is self-imposed) - Convexity hedging (Collapsing duration from MBS refi wave drives duration demand) @yieldsearcher And how do you suggest they do that @yieldsearcher And how do you suggest they do that" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017030282856079477) 2026-01-30T00:21Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Dollar is the only thing rallying on Warsh news. Rates equities PMs cryptos all red" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017066928171307067) 2026-01-30T02:46Z 21K followers, 12.4K engagements "Kevin Warsh expressing his love for YCC would be a helluva scene. And it would only affirm my belief that nothing is real and we do live in a giant simulation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017069294782238776) 2026-01-30T02:56Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty remarkable as we are facing: - Parabolic move in gold and silver - Dollar acting volatile - Trump Fed selection tomorrow - Potential govt shutdown this wknd (coin flip according to Polymarket) - Attack on Iran probably this wknd VIX is at 16-handle and MOVE at 60" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017103757780128179) 2026-01-30T05:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "PCE est should go down directionally given airfares and healthcare are lower than the corresponding CPI figures for Dec. Dec CPI/PPI show heavier inflation in services than in goods. Typical seasonality (holiday sales on goods but on-peak travels). This reverts in Jan. PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017234527488278859) 2026-01-30T13:52Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "For those who reflexively think hot PPIhot CPI From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 What happened Core PPI: 1.7% 4.5% thru Lehman Core CPI: 2.7% 2.4% before collapsing. Consumers can balk; demand elasticity / margin compression are things. Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break. https://t.co/hVX12o9O0U Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017245952445145304) 2026-01-30T14:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017279601567842699) 2026-01-30T16:51Z 21K followers, 21.2K engagements "Today is a perfect storm where CME speculators are getting carried out and more: - GC on 5% margin vs -11% move - SI on 10% vs -28% Forced liquidations everywhere. But the risk here is flushing out paper traders invite physical buyers accelerating delivery drawdowns. Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk. https://t.co/rRXPxZwrzx Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017300114981667208) 2026-01-30T18:13Z 21K followers, 11.8K engagements "@MarginCall4 Arguable scam or a value trap Future of finance or melting icecube" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017342805392126453) 2026-01-30T21:02Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "Jan Total Return: Equities: smallcap/cyclicals megacap/tech SPY: +1.5% QQQ: +1.2% IWM: +5.5% Fixed Income: creditrates TLT: -0.03% IEF: -0.2% LQD: +0.3% HYG: +0.6% PM: no comment GLD: +12% SLV: +17% Crypto: 4th straight red mth IBIT: -4.4% ETHA: -10% XRP: -6.2% SOL: -6.0%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017353757365805421) 2026-01-30T21:46Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "The fuel was there for sure (erratic and big swings showing lack of liquidity the past few days). I am not shocked to see the drawdown. But what are the odds that LME and HSBC (HK bullion dealer) have major outage on the crucial last day of the physical delivery deadline and circuitbreaker mysteriously does not trigger https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017380707828404649) 2026-01-30T23:33Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "3.2Moz or 3% of ready to deliver COMEX inventory released today despite the carnage. One can only wonder what is going on inside the head of every physical buyer looking at this inventory figure and silver $30 cheaper overnight" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017420389794582979) 2026-01-31T02:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Btw all those bank failure shitposts aside one has to think there are some major hedge funds who got royally hammered from todays outlier moves in PM right into month-end reporting day" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017423736010387632) 2026-01-31T02:24Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Took Richard Nixon to make a deal with China. Took Bismarck to institute social security in Germany. Took Begin and Sadat for Israel and Egypt to make peace. Hardliner credential can be an asset in convincing the market of the merits of a dovish path. @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of randoms on my feed gushing over him. Is it because he is Volcker-lite will help usher in stablecoins or will he do what Trump tells him to do These seem mutually incompatible. But the real effect in floating him seems to be tightening financial @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017641491355652189) 2026-01-31T16:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Seeing PM crash yesterday and now crypto making its unusual wknd crash with BTC now 80K I am def asking this question. Did something break" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017668066251841670) 2026-01-31T18:35Z 21K followers, 26K engagements "X has been near unusable for almost the entire day for me. Apologies for not being as responsive" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017735952588824972) 2026-01-31T23:05Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Starting to lose track of the layoff tracker the past two wks. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017747151514698035) 2026-01-31T23:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Note clothing one of the heaviest inflated items due to tariffs deflating in Jan after holiday season is over. You typically do not see this unless retailers have excess seasonal inventories to get rid of before their fiscal yr end (Jan month end) US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from 1.24% to 0.86% in our independent price data the lowest since [----]. Truflation US CPI today: 0.86% Y/Y The biggest downward drivers were: [--]. Utilities down -0.13% [--]. Clothing -0.08% [--]. Housing -0.05% [--]. Transport -0.05% [--]. Food https://t.co/HFef56JGyl US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017971994474467716) 2026-02-01T14:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "China blast furnace profitability (basically Chinese HRC steel px less raw-material costs) hovering around $28/t which is a good indicator for the general Chinese industrial profitability (or lack thereof). A good RT indicator for Chinas PPI which impacts global goods CPI. Scariest chart for Global economy. China fixed investment growth below zero for first time in [--] years excluding COVID blip. https://t.co/dmJbMwFGTz Scariest chart for Global economy. China fixed investment growth below zero for first time in [--] years excluding COVID blip. https://t.co/dmJbMwFGTz" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017996647951630496) 2026-02-01T16:21Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Las Vegas December stats Worst hotel occupancy since Jan [--]. Note the ADR and RevPar deflating significantly. For reference CPI Dec Lodging: -0.8% YoY" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017999422655787286) 2026-02-01T16:32Z 21K followers, 13.7K engagements "Total Revenue per Available Seat Miles (TRASM) is a great proxy for the airline fare trend. Q4 Results - UAL: -1.6% YoY - DAL: -0.2% - AAL: -1.6% - LUV: -0.2% - JBLU: +0.2% Avg: -0.7% vs. Dec PPI airfare going into the PCE: +1.7% 🤷 But airfares are deflating that is clear" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018007162786643989) 2026-02-01T17:02Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@MillennialRisk Discretionary services and housing ARE deflating though. You disagree Goods are high yes but that is 20% of the total weighting" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018007819702726729) 2026-02-01T17:05Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "The degree of attacks against this tells me how much FinTwit is going to be caught offside soon. It is the slope of the descent and the composition of the move not the figure that matter. Not to mention seasonally Jan is the seasonal peak. Go check Feds Nowcast (0.1%/2.4%) We're seeing significant cooling across all our independent US inflation indexes: US CPI today: 0.86% (drop from 1.24% yesterday) US PCE today: 1.18% US Core PCE today: 1.38% US BLS Comparison CPI: 0.29% (obtained by applying the BLS CPI weighting and categories to our price https://t.co/ByjcfPOH4F We're seeing significant" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018018221991788547) 2026-02-01T17:46Z 21.1K followers, 29.5K engagements "Inevitable but first China must liberalize the currency and capital controls allow FX appreciation and be willing to run current-account deficits for the RoW. Most importantly for CCP it must brace for a booming wealthy middle class less reliant/obedient to the state. JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018032555887411469) 2026-02-01T18:43Z 21K followers, 21.2K engagements "I am sitting as clueless as the guy next door but all I can say is when things feel lost the 2Y and DXY are the two one-eyed men in the land of the blind" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018204965047619618) 2026-02-02T06:08Z 21K followers, 10.8K engagements "Only so much crypto you can sell to cover your margin losses on PMs. Less than 5% of the overall equity market. Not a big buffer before it spills over to the equities. Hunt Brothers liquidation almost drove MS and ML to BK before the Fed stepped in. The gold and silver liquidation on Friday is a much bigger $ loss. Not saying this is a SHTF moment but I am saying vigilance. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018207347592589313) 2026-02-02T06:18Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "The new margin requirement for GC and SI are 8% and 15% respectively. The spots are -9% and -14% right now. Hunt Bro liquidation almost drove ML and MS to BK. This is bigger in $ losses. Crypto (5% of equity mkt) too small to be a buffer. This can get ugly. Lets see" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018211860982427924) 2026-02-02T06:36Z 21.1K followers, 16.6K engagements "Guess we found who provided the margin shortfall overnight. BREAKING: South Korea halts all program trading sell orders as its stock market downturn accelerates. BREAKING: South Korea halts all program trading sell orders as its stock market downturn accelerates" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018296098155094118) 2026-02-02T12:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "8%/15% margins not good enough for this vol. Would not shock me if CME raises the margin requirement again this wk. BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018300728234668078) 2026-02-02T12:29Z 21K followers, 24.6K engagements "I remember FinTwit disparaging Truflation when it started picking up in [----]. And again when it inflected from the peak in [--]. The numbers may be off but Truflation has caught major inflection pts in the past five yrs. A move this significant is worth a heed. Mainstream doesn't know anything about Truflation. However it's certainly been an excellent prediction on the coming trend in PCE and more importantly CPI because THAT's what mainstream does know. Falling below 2% would be something but crashing towards 0% would be even more https://t.co/cEnnSkMO8Y Mainstream doesn't know anything about" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018337899024879702) 2026-02-02T14:57Z 21.1K followers, 10.9K engagements "Good numbers from ISM-Mfg. Always a reminder this is 10% of the economy. Also a valid q in how much of this is seasonality (esp when inventory has been destocked for so long) and weather adjustments (Nation was shut down for a wk or so)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018345798753194393) 2026-02-02T15:28Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "We can have a disinflation (even deflation) with growth. Still my base case. But q is how much can we grow with continuously softening labor mkt. ISM employment of [----] is better than exp but 50=MoM contraction. Internals show [--] sectors saw employment growth and [--] decline" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018364436214345848) 2026-02-02T16:42Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Who knew issuing more equities is positive for equities ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower. ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018365810566168783) 2026-02-02T16:48Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes gambit on [----] demand inflection" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018451064429928816) 2026-02-02T22:26Z 21K followers, 19.6K engagements "Btw this expansion of inventory is a highly dis/deflationary setup. S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes gambit on [----] demand inflection. https://t.co/SjR9XHrLCX S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018453728987349200) 2026-02-02T22:37Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Most hawkish thing I heard from Miran 😂 Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018686941424652686) 2026-02-03T14:04Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Coded message on how Citadel views this yrs macro. CITADEL'S GRIFFIN SAYS AI WON'T BE A MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE THIS CYCLE CITADEL'S GRIFFIN SAYS AI WON'T BE A MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE THIS CYCLE" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018729758763217018) 2026-02-03T16:54Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Think of what PE firms love to buy: Asset/capex-light Process/labor intensive bottlenecks that allow for high recurring rents High operating leverage (higher revenue = higher margins) How does this survive post-AI Tangible assets = moat rings true in more ways than one. Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash With Zombie Firms Hundreds of private equity firms are now drowning in a sea of competition searching for lifeboats of new capital as they cling to portfolios of nearly unsaleable investments. Meanwhile their investors are losing https://t.co/DFh57p6FQs Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018735617719321006) 2026-02-03T17:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "It is worse if you take out $300b stablecoin market cap. The piggybank for excess liquidity is draining. Crypto is [----] trillion down [----] trillion from its peak. Crypto down 39.49% from its high. https://t.co/LXMJDaobC8 Crypto is [----] trillion down [----] trillion from its peak. Crypto down 39.49% from its high. https://t.co/LXMJDaobC8" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018736386296410173) 2026-02-03T17:20Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Bullish Banana Republic Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018739366688907688) 2026-02-03T17:32Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018777027797729329) 2026-02-03T20:02Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "To think this all started with Kevin Warsh nomination" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018784439002878298) 2026-02-03T20:31Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Iran: Planning has been carried out to hold negotiations with the US over the coming days. Iran: Planning has been carried out to hold negotiations with the US over the coming days" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018785362190213353) 2026-02-03T20:35Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "IWM green. Entirely conceivable that this is the yr fundamental value analysts finally outperform this year yet earn no bonuses because their tech-focused colleagues drag down the fund" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018790127930392859) 2026-02-03T20:54Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "CMG -9% guiding to flat comp (vs +2% cons) in [----]. There goes the consumers discretionary services spending" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018794609263169992) 2026-02-03T21:11Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@TexasOncologist I dont think so either (it was a sarcastic comment). But hard to pinpoint what else could have triggered it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018806549771362388) 2026-02-03T21:59Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "@Seniorstrategen I agree. Bond market functioning pristinely right now. (Move swap spreads liquidity metrics recent auctions etc) Also credit spreads have not blown out either" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018816075857850379) 2026-02-03T22:37Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "@doobeedoo2 @NickTimiraos If you look at the latest CPI autos and furnitures showing significant downward MoM moves recently. Hotels -0.8% yoy and airfares (cpi) -2.0%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018816818199285766) 2026-02-03T22:40Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@hstaater Spread still very tight. Drawdown is relatively much tamer than others but yes if they blow out 2Y will react" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018818098410000719) 2026-02-03T22:45Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "And this is how. Nvidia CEO: AI will lead to cheaper energy costs. $NVDA Nvidia CEO: AI will lead to cheaper energy costs. $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018830095851659627) 2026-02-03T23:32Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "@StockMomo The matrix is stuck in the 90s. You will be attending those meetings" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018838500574204160) 2026-02-04T00:06Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@noruserious @Seniorstrategen I use BBG but you can find it at yahoo finance" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018861979935571998) 2026-02-04T01:39Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "The Western civilization is saved Coffee has fallen to its lowest price since August ☕📉 Finally a win 🥳🫂 https://t.co/odnZOPXNli Coffee has fallen to its lowest price since August ☕📉 Finally a win 🥳🫂 https://t.co/odnZOPXNli" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019057633697657301) 2026-02-04T14:37Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "There may be some seasonal noise here (given the weather) but Jan Auto sales SAAR at 14.85m lowest since Mar [--]. Looks like auto inflation will be weak this month" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019059228191690854) 2026-02-04T14:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Important thread to read. Some addl context: Feds Cook highlighted insurers exposure to PC as a key area to monitor for credit stress back in Nov. They see the potential systemic nature of the issue. Here is the Fed staffs report on this. Read the conclusion. (Link below) In case youre curious where the losses are the PE industry has been acquiring and then raiding the floats of c.10% of US life insurance assets. Theyve been filling them with private credit and direct lending all using the same private ratings agency to misclassify the loans. In case youre curious where the losses are the PE" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019073771500433635) 2026-02-04T15:41Z 20.9K followers, 12.1K engagements "Pretty interesting that XHB +13% ytd as IEF (7-10yr Treasuries) -0.4%. One of them is wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019086831854247984) 2026-02-04T16:33Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "$600m insider contribution sounds like a lot until you realize 1.5% mgmt fee on $14b = $210m/yr so you get a 3yr payback. But this is a lot of liquidity commitment for mid-level employees who prob has to borrow money to invest here" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019088680854446577) 2026-02-04T16:40Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "@DoomLog_ Mortgage spread can compress more but in the end rates still have to help for mortgage rates to be down meaningfully enuf to help the housing fundamentals" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019103431466918151) 2026-02-04T17:39Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019105211168837658) 2026-02-04T17:46Z 21K followers, 204.1K engagements "Tfw your sushi pickup came without wasabi It is that kind of a day" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019105646856061408) 2026-02-04T17:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "The bar is not low but Google can save the mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019115262008782872) 2026-02-04T18:26Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty eloquent summary of why there is this eerily calm stalemate in the bond market. They are not leading this time but waiting for the macro regime to decisively tilt one way or another. @BlacklionCTA @Dcpcooks @LongTplexTrader They are THE RISK. At any point in time they can blow up the let it run hot trade by simply pricing in potential inflation. No one has been willing to position for that yet. For the same reason they cant be the risk free flight to quality instrument. Has to be enough @BlacklionCTA @Dcpcooks @LongTplexTrader They are THE RISK. At any point in time they can blow up" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019129832706306344) 2026-02-04T19:24Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "@tagthatstock It is a tribute to how much VIX has taken money from me over the yrs" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019132532823052520) 2026-02-04T19:34Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@fejau_inc I posted it as a yellow warning observation but folks are turning into a defcon5. It is what it is. But the persistency and the constant widening do concern me. Totally could be nothing within a wk and I will be a happy camper" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019202181753434419) 2026-02-05T00:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "I remember that. Silicon Valley Bank bust and rumor was that USDC was a major depositor there. Had those depositors not gotten bailed out it would have depegged permanently. But otherwise no one doubts USDCs reserves are there. With Tether the lack of transparency is its best asset and liability. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019204594463645821 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019204594463645821" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019204594463645821) 2026-02-05T00:21Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "This is a good chart. Shows you all five hyperscalers will be investing (some significantly) above their internal cash generation. Having a cheap cost of debt is a paramount national interest in more ways than one. @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019207432153469338) 2026-02-05T00:32Z 20.9K followers, 16.8K engagements "@NickWoolos Having high leverage and not being able to invest in capex in this environment will kill companies long run" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019208713999909356) 2026-02-05T00:37Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@rupechat @sesamesoymilk I realize that but should be directionally right. Oracle is not going to magically grow out of its funding hole this yr" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019212359060119836) 2026-02-05T00:51Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "@astanafes [----] capex" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019215220548505739) 2026-02-05T01:03Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "@RealJohnGaltFla He is right on that though. The issue is that it may cause deflation on the other side" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019216184592486649) 2026-02-05T01:07Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "He raises a good point. PC is a major overweight for most asset allocators with significant current liabilities (pensions insurers everyone except endowments). Excess return over UST with zero vol = amazing Sharpe ratio until default risk shows up But they own no PM. 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019221496452018421) 2026-02-05T01:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@MarginCall4 I am not a Korean equity experts by any means but it is safe to blame every softness in semis to MU at this pt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019230924408242685) 2026-02-05T02:05Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "This shitpost alone has more interactions than my every other posts today combined. X is a wild place 😂 BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019231882429493384) 2026-02-05T02:09Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@TradFidiGuy It is all reflexive and circular. That capex can and will change depending on the markets reception" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019239581489807364) 2026-02-05T02:40Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@TradFidiGuy @mdotjacks25 Cant be training forever though. At some pt they gotta walk the walk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019243662199423375) 2026-02-05T02:56Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@zephyr_z9 That is the way it is and he will end up owning OAI recycling that cash" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019246527332642876) 2026-02-05T03:07Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "@ser_kingslayer_ @zephyr_z9 That was a tongue in cheek comment on Jensen Huang recycling that cash back to the AI ecosystem. Doesnt have to be OAI but somewhere" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019247444794413068) 2026-02-05T03:11Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@ser_kingslayer_ @zephyr_z9 Would surely be interesting to see how all these private AI cos gonna compete with GOOGs $180b warchest" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019248852256342489) 2026-02-05T03:16Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "@DerivativesDon Good thing is: not much leverage needed if at all" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019254522036777072) 2026-02-05T03:39Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "He forgot to add: But a second job. JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job" JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job"" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019257128477946363) 2026-02-05T03:49Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@thehoaxwatch Not perfect but gives you a sense of directionality though. Not like oracle is going to get out of the funding hole" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019257787281231960) 2026-02-05T03:52Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "HY spreads (white) vs. VIX (blue) While the mkt is expressing displeasure in software credit via loan ETFs/BDCs/PE firms public credit remains relatively calm. Absent an acute credit stress (imminent defaults) little reason for the Fed to act; also why rates remain steady" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019263093067641181) 2026-02-05T04:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@JCJC915661 @firstadopter Q is how will Jensen Huang recycle that massive cash inflow back into the AI ecosystem. It may be very much in his interest to keep viable competitors who can match Google and its $180b warchest" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019283358002393435) 2026-02-05T05:34Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "Imo GOOGs $180b capex announcement likely seals the marriage between NVDA and OAI (and/or some other viable AI competitor(s)). Very much in Jensen Huangs interest to preserve an ecosystem that can put a check on Googles lead and its massive war chest. The arms race is on" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019286145452945855) 2026-02-05T05:45Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "So here is the interesting part of the Challenger report. Logistics (31K) and tech (22K) were obvious; those are UPS and AMZN. But right behind them was healthcare (17K) the most since Apr [----] (19K). This is a new data pt. If HC is rolling over there goes the labor mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019408161044844937) 2026-02-05T13:49Z 21K followers, 13.4K engagements "The 2Y is offside. Waller dissented for a cut and noted significant downside risks to labor as many of his contacts suggested upcoming layoffs. Looks like he may be right. https://t.co/HzvXVQWfrF Waller dissented for a cut and noted significant downside risks to labor as many of his contacts suggested upcoming layoffs. Looks like he may be right. https://t.co/HzvXVQWfrF" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019411844096483404) 2026-02-05T14:04Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "I live for these kinds of Twitter feed placements" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019443719871570221) 2026-02-05T16:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Circuitbreaker in crypto would be a nice wouldnt it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019505247383617928) 2026-02-05T20:15Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "Core PCE MoM Jan 2025: +0.31% Feb 2025: +0.45% Cleveland Feds Core PCE Nowcast: Jan 2026: +0.23% Feb 2026: +0.23% By their estimate they see core PCE going to 2.5% from 2.8% by end of Feb. If the Feds own est is right March cut is very much live" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019506721069179077) 2026-02-05T20:21Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "I was half-joking when I said cryptos golden age was possible only after liquidating Saylor and/or Tether" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019537729122627844) 2026-02-05T22:24Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Why Bessent was hired. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The https://t.co/l0eAjPT5Ky U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019558799850500326) 2026-02-05T23:48Z 21K followers, 19.8K engagements "We just had a back-to-back-to-back triple punch on labor mkt today (Challenger IJC JOLTS) leading to the classic recessionary reaction of rates rally + equity selloff. Now imagine had we not had a [--] day shutdown wed all be on Xanax anxiously waiting for NFP tomorrow. In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺 JOLTS December job openings 🔻 https://t.co/ujtF1exgrr In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019560610539954447) 2026-02-05T23:55Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Nobody is an atheist in THIS mkt. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019564386965455118) 2026-02-06T00:10Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@phlegminglib Do not disagree that this is increasingly looking like the end game. The signs are there and the writing is clearly on the walls. That said I do expect this will be a longer drawn process and I expect Trump to force China to pay a fortune for it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019574012494639190) 2026-02-06T00:49Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements "You waited till now 🚨 BREAKING: THE OLDEST AND RICHEST SATOSHI-ERA WHALE JUST DUMPED [-----] $BTC WORTH $800 MILLION HE HAD BEEN HOLDING SINCE [----] AND NOW HE HAS DUMPED EVERYTHING THIS IS THE START OF A BEAR MARKET. https://t.co/yU9oC2eXV5 🚨 BREAKING: THE OLDEST AND RICHEST SATOSHI-ERA WHALE JUST DUMPED [-----] $BTC WORTH $800 MILLION HE HAD BEEN HOLDING SINCE [----] AND NOW HE HAS DUMPED EVERYTHING THIS IS THE START OF A BEAR MARKET. https://t.co/yU9oC2eXV5" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019576948754886847) 2026-02-06T01:00Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "@WinningLibtards Recessionary mkt reaction recession" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019577123963629722) 2026-02-06T01:01Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements "Mary Daly does not vote this year but she is one of the Feds in-house labor mkt experts (alongside Goolsbee) and it is notable that she is becoming incrementally more concerned about the state of the labor market" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019816061403820431) 2026-02-06T16:50Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Installment payment stream on another installment payment stream. What stage JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC. JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019816370180092342) 2026-02-06T16:52Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Feds Jefferson seeing labor mkt as a greater risk than inflation. Note the last feed where he sees very little cushion left on the labor mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019833045797466343) 2026-02-06T17:58Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Isnt that the entire thesis NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019835304065265882) 2026-02-06T18:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@Cessnadriver50 TLT $200 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019841202909245942) 2026-02-06T18:30Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "ZIRP without a recession within two yrs is not a crazy thesis imo. Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019842678951702681) 2026-02-06T18:36Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "NFP next Wed and CPI Friday. If Trump wants to help the housing/economy for Main St and boost his electoral chances he needs to set the stage for turbo-charged rate cuts soon esp with cCPI about to lap tough Jan print (+0.45%) and the labor market still vulnerable" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019892289829494795) 2026-02-06T21:53Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Unpopular opinion: todays move was frontrunning Japanese election this Sunday (+ some profit-taking short covering)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019898583089078669) 2026-02-06T22:18Z 21K followers, 17.9K engagements "@fallacyalarm Well Feb is the seasonally weak part of the yr. But seasonality went [---] degrees last yr so I am just living day by day" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019944905196413380) 2026-02-07T01:22Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "Strong and persistent deflation post-tariffs starting to kick in this yr. We lap tariff middle of this yr. Convexity hedging demand for duration pops once long rate goes down sufficiently as MBS duration collapses 10Y poised to benefit most as we run out of off the run supplies beginning this yr (no 30Y issued 15-20yrs ago). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020136153597255924) 2026-02-07T14:02Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Goods are flowing again. ISM and S&P Jan reports highlighted that industrials are restocking at the fastest pace since [----] despite lack of recovery in spot demand to date. But the fact that this is continuing into early Feb is indeed a promising sign. Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close out the week and are now at the highest levels they've been since October [----]. This is a remarkable freight market with no signs of slowing. It continues to reinforce the narrative that market tightness is not just a weather https://t.co/GFD56CCtix Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020141537267491021) 2026-02-07T14:24Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@WinningLibtards Non recessionary dis/deflation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020146402811121978) 2026-02-07T14:43Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Great q. [--]. The manufacturing is showing a recovery but this is 10% of the economy. Service sector still showing slowdown per the latest reports. [--]. ADP shows mfg shedding jobs but jobs is a lagging indicator. Back in [----] UR kept going up till Dec when S&P bottomed in Mar. @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020157413689630935) 2026-02-07T15:27Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@noruserious The uncertainty def weighs on the general sentiment but if ones view is that scotus is going to strike down tariffs you would wait on restocking. I think people are saying enuf we waited long enuf our inventory is too low time to restock and see how the yr progresses" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020160860623118450) 2026-02-07T15:40Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@noruserious TBD but there are some signs that this can be real. Mkt obv thinking that too with cyclicals outperformance this yr" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020161893822812484) 2026-02-07T15:45Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@LarryVasqu99365 Open to that possibility. We will know for sure by end of the month" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020204378351890458) 2026-02-07T18:33Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Interesting precedent A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020205489397834039) 2026-02-07T18:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "A real name disclosure for once Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020210811159867883) 2026-02-07T18:59Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Last yr HYG returned +8.6%. CCC returned 6%. Distressed credit returned -9%. From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020259585504997711) 2026-02-07T22:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Not sure I buy Cramer here but Trump got into office with overwhelming support from crypto bros. Crypto is integral to keeping future UST bids alive. Pathway will never be linear (super volatile in fact) but how bonds and crypto fare by Nov will decide the midterm for DJT. Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard at $60k he's gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve." https://t.co/1VAAp2jK4d Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020276292428669071) 2026-02-07T23:19Z 21K followers, 10.5K engagements "@nasdaq19500 The actual final result is secondary to the question of how much efforts will he put into pump things up" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020288047506682318) 2026-02-08T00:06Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Hunter Biden redemption arc in [----] was not on my bingo card. Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020293576337330464) 2026-02-08T00:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender. According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020301606869430418) 2026-02-08T01:00Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@DerivativesDon Well put. It really is about the growth" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020318799355080866) 2026-02-08T02:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@DerivativesDon The risk of course is that the Feds bias is to react once everything becomes blatantly obvious (ie late)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020320619053654248) 2026-02-08T02:15Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@PauloMacro And 90% would cheer for it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020334075785949303) 2026-02-08T03:09Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "Long Thread: Vietnam War: East vs. Western Warfare The Vietnam War stands as a prototypical West-meets-East moment where the Wests inherent understanding of warfare was completely upended by a more nebulous Eastern style of engagement. American strategy exemplified by General Westmorelands fixation on kill ratios and decisive engagements treated war as an engineering problem in which force application and quantifiable success on the battlefield would inevitably beget victory. North Vietnam by contrast fought an entirely different war one in which strategy eclipsed tactics and political" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020363498446893160) 2026-02-08T05:06Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "While everyones attention is on Iran there seems to be a real proxy battle currently being fought in Iraq which is in the process of forming a new government. Not much news covering this but the situation seems grave enuf that Trump had to cover this topic publicly. Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020375967215296844) 2026-02-08T05:55Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "The North Vietnamese general Vo Nguyen Giap who oversaw Tet had this to say: The Tet Offensive was not a purely military action. Its main purpose was to influence American public opinion and force the U.S. government to change its policy. The Americans lost in Vietnam because they did not understand that they were fighting a political war. American public never recovered from seeing the embassy in the heart of the capital attacked in broad daylight" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020486495837032619) 2026-02-08T13:14Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@GaryHaubold Yes I remember his days. Def very sympathetic to Iran. The fact that there are forces willing to push for him despite Trumps objection says this is a big important fight for Iran" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020489605011685714) 2026-02-08T13:27Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "That is a legitimate critique: tariff pass-through is taking longer than expected and there is a risk that we may not fully lap these effects by midyear. The flip side however is that if firms have been unable to pass through much of the tariff impact after this long it raises the question of when/whether they will be able to do so. This suggests strong consumer resistance and high px elasticity which in itself argues that inflation in nondurables should be naturally contained. It is also notable that Truflation shows apparel and household items the two nondurable categories that experienced" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020493426798563828) 2026-02-08T13:42Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@tdarling1 We did get December CPI last month. This one will be Jan. The PPI is still getting delayed a bit though" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020494266049393064) 2026-02-08T13:45Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "When you have 2/3 of the Diet the opposition here clearly means the FX and the bond markets not the politicians on the other side of the aisle. TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020494777243021544) 2026-02-08T13:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@JellyCrypto 155-160 ideally but if not she def prefers to see that higher" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020497048475488597) 2026-02-08T13:56Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@KQ992017 There are still US military forces in Iraq though" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020499656548212777) 2026-02-08T14:07Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Pretty remarkable. For a country known for consensus and harmony-seeking culture Japan is handing this government a level of political power concentration not seen since WWII maybe even since Meiji. The financial and geopolitical implications of this will not be trivial. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020521234706858473) 2026-02-08T15:32Z 21.1K followers, 15.7K engagements "@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef Makes sense. Obv the difference was Pearl Harbor was an undispited US territory that would rile up the US public while the farthest Tet got was the US embassy in Saigon" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020527749916512287) 2026-02-08T15:58Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Katayama: It may be possible to tap FX reserves to fund state spending though this could create issues if reserves are also needed for intervention. This is very new and just as equally remarkable (at least to me). Japan is thinking of selling US assets to fund the stimulus. Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is in good dialogue with the BOJ BlackRock and IMF executives who understand Japans position. Finance Minister Katayama: Government will seek dialogue with markets on Monday as needed. Finance Minister Katayama: It may be possible Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020529089304551543) 2026-02-08T16:04Z 21.1K followers, 17.6K engagements "@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef I always find it ironic the two countries who were most enthusiastic about removing Chinese culture/characters out of their languages were none other than North Koreans and North Vietnamese" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020529708710924489) 2026-02-08T16:06Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@InvestInJapan I see no fault in this logic" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020561670595104984) 2026-02-08T18:13Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@EconstratPB Best place in America imo. So surprising there is no major financial firm presence there" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020564411685929084) 2026-02-08T18:24Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs It is indeed the experience of many Americans but inflation means rate of increase which is clearly inflecting down. But that said I totally get it that after having accrued 30% inflation lost covid any inflation above zero is painful" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020566854343823712) 2026-02-08T18:34Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "@FixedIncQuant @EconstratPB San Diego All I see are Qualcomm engineers" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020567780202787281) 2026-02-08T18:37Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@FixedIncQuant @EconstratPB I would be more than happy to be proven wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020568002614153273) 2026-02-08T18:38Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs Where are you getting 4.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020571232911921248) 2026-02-08T18:51Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs So you are effectively saying real consumption growth is zero" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020574205532594677) 2026-02-08T19:03Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs Not sure I agree with that but I get where you are going with this" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020575461718257847) 2026-02-08T19:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "You think this is funny until you realize college underemployment here is 41% per NY Fed. Tsinghua University (China's top university) graduate woman delivering food. 😮 China is everything okay 😬 https://t.co/HoIGR7ldX8 Tsinghua University (China's top university) graduate woman delivering food. 😮 China is everything okay 😬 https://t.co/HoIGR7ldX8" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020581869373321720) 2026-02-08T19:33Z 21.1K followers, 113.3K engagements "Takaichis political slogan Translates to Make Japan strong & prosperous Which takes its inspiration (albeit with less militaristic overtone) from the 19th c. Meiji modernization era slogan (Rich state strong army). The nationalism is back" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020589738986488117) 2026-02-08T20:05Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@MoarFunCoupons That was last Jan [----] core CPI MoM figure which we will lap in a wk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020620254737510584) 2026-02-08T22:06Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@ArsenalStu They want that inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020623761368850609) 2026-02-08T22:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "Trump is clearly super happy about the Japanese election results" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020637811733409829) 2026-02-08T23:16Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "All this run it hot rhetoric is really a brake on a large deflationary wave. Takaichi has her work cut out for her" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020654647174991873) 2026-02-09T00:23Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Looks like someone is ready to revalue its currency upward. BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings." BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings."" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020839902171328619) 2026-02-09T12:39Z 21.1K followers, 15.2K engagements "@TexasOncologist Japanese bond yields still affecting global term premia. So you got Japan and Hassett counteracting but different part of the curve showing different sensitivity. But these days anything within 5bp dtd move is par for the course" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020880526265971170) 2026-02-09T15:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "Japan election out of the way Now the setup is such that we have Hassett lowering expectations for the payroll on Wed and Truflation suggesting a fair bit of risk of CPI coming cold on Fri. I do expect bond mkt to wake up from its slumber this wk. Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that has been) the Feb [--] Japan election is probably the only catalyst left to play for further curve steepening at this stage. Interesting to see 2s10s barely budging with 7bp moves on both legs (5s30s +2bp) Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020882666548232340) 2026-02-09T15:29Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Every DM term premia has been following Japans direction since late last yr. Every DM bond competing against Japan. Bessent practically told Japan to stop it when it got out of control a month ago when JGB 30Y was moving 20bp a day. But mkt more or less priced in Japan fiscal policy so q is what more left there near term. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020887014699078100) 2026-02-09T15:46Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@JayLeonard 100% agreed. If mkt is willing to give me 100y paper I will issue that right there and then" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020912362446815731) 2026-02-09T17:27Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "All you folks trying to come up with exceptions to this are proving my pt here. Yes GE still exists and is paying their debts but it was a AAA-rated company for the longest time but now barely above BBB. Also they almost went BK in 2008; got bailed out. 100y is a long time. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020950215642018119) 2026-02-09T19:57Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "This is starting to make more sense isnt it (Source: Truflation) Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020972978947883341) 2026-02-09T21:28Z 21.1K followers, 10.9K engagements "Does not preclude a big flush/reset before moon but crypto is without a doubt a strategic national interest. Only Q is: which blockchains 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020974246999228732) 2026-02-09T21:33Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@TotemMacro So the irony is that as a deflationist I am tempted to trade this as a super duration instrument. But I still think 100Y corporate bond is a crazy bad idea" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020979185288872173) 2026-02-09T21:52Z 21.1K followers, 42.9K engagements "I know many Asian countries are hyperfocused on FX as FX drives inflation but what Miran says below is true for the US. That is because goods is only 20% of the economy and import is a subsector of that. Wage rent and energy (3 biggest service cost items) drive US inflation. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been relatively modest. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020992064851267741) 2026-02-09T22:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "It is a feature not a bug. It is logical that consumer essentials would have better pricing power given lack of elasticity compared to durables and discretionaries. I am still gonna need clorox wipes if it costs me $8 from $5 (but obv I will switch to private labels on the way). It is pure math with a specific set of weightings but I do not object to your pt that standard of living is degrading when we have less money to spend on discretionaries. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021015871167049775) 2026-02-10T00:18Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "$400b bond issues from hyperscalers sounds like a lot and it is. Until you realize this is less than one quarters worth of US federal deficit. MS expects hyperscalers to borrow $400 billion this year. Oracle: $25B done Alphabet: $20B pricing now IG spreads at two-decade tights. Supply is coming. $ORCL $GOOG https://t.co/5zYKo3qtpO MS expects hyperscalers to borrow $400 billion this year. Oracle: $25B done Alphabet: $20B pricing now IG spreads at two-decade tights. Supply is coming. $ORCL $GOOG https://t.co/5zYKo3qtpO" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021093689230073993) 2026-02-10T05:27Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty good summary of what Clarity Act is and what the meeting between the banks and crypto folks today will try to resolve. Expect some headlines around this. 🚨 The White House is holding a closed door meeting tomorrow to decide the future of the U.S. crypto market structure bill. The White House wants both sides to reach compromise language by the end of Feb [----] with stablecoin yield being the main issue blocking the bill. The https://t.co/aIFSX4Ui3p 🚨 The White House is holding a closed door meeting tomorrow to decide the future of the U.S. crypto market structure bill. The White House" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021187681128968359) 2026-02-10T11:41Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Control Group Oct: +0.5% (was +0.6%) Nov: +0.2% (was +0.4%) Dec: -0.1% What is most notable on the internals is that previously resilient nondurables (personal care apparels and sporting goods) and restaurants are inflecting lower. Truflations nondurable trend making sense. Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2% Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021219352108748808) 2026-02-10T13:47Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "This is why consumer inflation is inflecting lower despite tariffs. Consumers are super price sensitive. This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021226158558224743) 2026-02-10T14:14Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@yieldsearcher Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX posts on X about in the, market, inflation, ai the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +269%
- [--] Month [---------] +249%
- [--] Months [----------] +274%
- [--] Year [----------] +3,491%
Mentions: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] -14%
- [--] Month [---] +57%
- [--] Months [-----] +88%
- [--] Year [-----] +234%
Followers: [-------] #
- [--] Week [------] +1.40%
- [--] Month [------] +8.40%
- [--] Months [------] +93%
- [--] Year [------] +605%
CreatorRank: [------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #419 countries 13.23% stocks 8.03% technology brands 6.72% cryptocurrencies #5458 currencies 3.47% celebrities #1091 social networks 0.87% automotive brands 0.87% travel destinations 0.65%
Social topic influence in the 9.76%, market #1824, inflation #244, ai 5.64%, japan 5.64%, liquidity 4.77%, china 4.56%, deflation #20, crypto 3.69%, gold 3.69%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @garyhaubold @yieldsearcher @noruserious @jz281c @stockmomo @fixedincquant @winninglibtards @texasoncologist @tradfidiguy @cessnadriver50 @derivativesdon @grok @margincall4 @econstratpb @tagthatstock @jellycrypto @jeremie0117 @doejistar @winnerinvestor @american_42069
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Something notable in the crypto space: Tether has been depegged since 12/15"
X Link 2026-01-29T02:11Z 21.2K followers, 10.9K engagements
"The initial Jan [----] NFP was +143K; now -48K. Not sure why folks take offense at others thinking the NFP is garbage. That is conclusive at this pt. Just keep that thought away from trading and even from bad data you can still id a trend of goods outperforming services ex-HC. For the payroll report the headline number was clearly better than expected. Thats quite good. The January report includes benchmark revisions though and that reduced employment by about 900K. Here's the revision table showing the distribution. https://t.co/rmcjMRvhtv For the payroll report the headline number was clearly"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:23Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"When a university with a $53 billion endowment needs to tap the bond market in this environment it just tells you just how illiquid their investments really are"
X Link 2025-04-07T17:24Z 21.2K followers, 311.9K engagements
"Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over [--] yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is. A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU"
X Link 2025-07-18T18:07Z 21.2K followers, 356.8K engagements
"Ironically despite the carnage in software which is private credits largest sector exposure (15-25%) today was a good day for BDCs generally up 1% today. Seems like no algos have figured out this link yet. SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp https://t.co/1S4K5UGcQR SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp"
X Link 2026-01-02T21:17Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"So many bank CEOs warn that a credit card rate cap would cause a recession by limiting consumer credit access. I agree with that argument but if our marginal incremental consumption growth comes with a 25% interest rate px tag I struggle to see how that growth is worth it"
X Link 2026-01-23T00:37Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"All he needs to see BOJ GOV UEDA: NOT SEEING THAT WE ARE BEHIND-THE-CURVE NOW BOJ GOV UEDA: NOT SEEING THAT WE ARE BEHIND-THE-CURVE NOW"
X Link 2026-01-23T12:16Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"This is the current dilemma in the market. Trump wants low rates and a weak dollar. However the global bond and FX markets are only willing to give him one of them while the equity market is pricing in as if he will get both through a cyclicals rally. One of them is wrong"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:53Z 21K followers, 12.2K engagements
"Lets hope the nations grid makes it through the next [--] hours intact. Otherwise the public backlash against data centers could become very energized"
X Link 2026-01-25T01:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"The only thing that honestly surprises me about $5000 gold and $100 silver is that nothing broke along the way not even one high-profile hedge fund casualty. $20t of market value creation over the past [--] months and no one got carried out on the shorts. Remarkable"
X Link 2026-01-25T23:42Z 21K followers, 247.5K engagements
"Seeing lots of FinTwit folks cashing out PMs today even physical. Never wrong to take profits but I wouldnt call this a sentiment shift or a top. GLD + SLV = $230B or 0.6% of total mkt cap. Retail does not move this mkt. Govts and TPTB do"
X Link 2026-01-27T01:22Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Btw an intraday swing of $15 (13%) in both directions in the silver mkt today and no one is asking whether something is broken beneath the surface. The very high price impact suggests relatively thin order-book depth. Suggests dealers pulling back; liquidity is thinning"
X Link 2026-01-27T02:08Z 20.9K followers, 16.6K engagements
"You thought Trump was going to let healthcare insurance companies benefit from 10% credit card rate BREAKING: UnitedHealth stock $UNH falls over -8% after a new report says the US will hold payments to private Medicare plans flat next year. https://t.co/OIvsN3Ryov BREAKING: UnitedHealth stock $UNH falls over -8% after a new report says the US will hold payments to private Medicare plans flat next year. https://t.co/OIvsN3Ryov"
X Link 2026-01-27T02:10Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Worth noting that in April last yr when dollar and rates were getting sold off gold was the only metal that took off while other metals (incl silver) performed in line with the equities"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:45Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles matter more. 1985-87 (Plaza Accd) DXY fell [-----] yet cPCE dropped from [---] to [---]. From 02-08 DXY fell 12070; inflation stayed 2%. Inverse example: [------] DXY rose [-----] as PCE surged 1.7%5.6%"
X Link 2026-01-28T00:49Z 20.9K followers, 16.3K engagements
"Worth noting: - Goods/imports are only 20% of CPI in an 80% services economy - Post-Plaza $30 oil capped inflation - Must consider shift in demand (less discretionary spend offsets price hikes) - Weak DXY = deflation in the RoW (esp EU) partially offsetting inflation pressure. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles matter more. 1985-87 (Plaza Accd) DXY fell [-----] yet cPCE dropped from [---] to [---]. From 02-08 DXY fell 12070; inflation stayed 2%. Inverse example: [------] DXY rose [-----] as PCE surged 1.7%5.6%. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles"
X Link 2026-01-28T13:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@GONOGO_Korea You know I went to Seoul this summer. I was shocked to find Galbitang at 20K krw"
X Link 2026-01-28T13:59Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty uneventful presser so far (besides pleading the Fifth) his commentaries on inflation is notably dovish. - If you take tariffs out core inflation is just above 2%. - Most of the tariff has now been baked in at this stage - Seeing disinflation in services"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:50Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Always a reminder: During the FOMC press conference Powell represents the voice of the FOMC as a whole not his personal views. Asking personal questions is therefore not appropriate. Private interviews are fair game but not in this setting"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:01Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Powell: Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to the labor market have diminished. Agreed. However if inflation is near 2% absent tariffs the risk here is a downside inflation surprise once tariff effects roll off this summer and OER begins to correct lower"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I see no fault with this impeccable logic. Blackrock 2025: Buy Bitcoin as a safety hedge Bitcoin falls 30% Blackrock 2026: Bonds are no longer a safety hedge 👉Inverse Blackrock play is to buy bonds Blackrock 2025: Buy Bitcoin as a safety hedge Bitcoin falls 30% Blackrock 2026: Bonds are no longer a safety hedge 👉Inverse Blackrock play is to buy bonds"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:23Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Not sure I should be rejoicing or be worried"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:45Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Color me shocked I maintain the true winners from this are going to be those with properties in Westchester Nassau Hudson and Bergen counties. 🚨 JUST IN: New Yorkers are in a state of SHOCK after Ugandan Mayor Zohran Mamdani says NYC now faces a "fiscal crisis at a scale of the GREAT RECESSION" His plan: "Raising taxes on wealthy New Yorkers and profitable companies." Yikes. Best of luck NYC.https://t.co/CchzRUwnjo 🚨 JUST IN: New Yorkers are in a state of SHOCK after Ugandan Mayor Zohran Mamdani says NYC now faces a "fiscal crisis at a scale of the GREAT RECESSION" His plan: "Raising taxes"
X Link 2026-01-29T01:36Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Market seems very sure that the attack on Iran is imminent (this wknd)"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:14Z 21K followers, 11.6K engagements
"Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:33Z 21K followers, 15.7K engagements
"So the market collectively decided MSFTs whiff = death of the software"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:12Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"So if gold and silver are turning out to be levered equity betas and TLT is down on a day like this what is the flight to safety asset"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:31Z 20.9K followers, 36.9K engagements
"According to ChatGPT there are 3m employees in the software industry with another 8m indirect jobs tied to it (back office marketing hardware real estate etc.). If AI does render software obsolete the disruption (and deflation) would be one for the ages"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:52Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Another chunky layoff announcement. And this one is from the very sector that is supposed to show the first signs of cyclical green shoots. Chemical maker Dow is cutting [----] jobs will rely on AI #MacroEdge Chemical maker Dow is cutting [----] jobs will rely on AI #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-01-29T16:23Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Significant relative outperformance in IWM value/cyclicals sector ETFs and copper today says that this market selloff is driven more by AI/Sftw narratives rather than worry on global growth. TLT needs deflation or growth breakdown to work. 2Y barely budging as well"
X Link 2026-01-29T16:48Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Worth keeping an eye on. #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx"
X Link 2026-01-29T20:02Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"A rule of thumb: companies typically do not cut staff when there is strong confidence in topline growth. Hence Mastercard laying off employees against a narrative of resilient consumer spending raises a question mark. Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-01-29T20:55Z 21.1K followers, 41.3K engagements
"Would be pretty funny if AAPL missing on U.S. sales but finally beating on China sales ends up being the signal of a cyclical inflection of the two economies"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Mortgage rates going to sub-3% (maybe even sub-2%) is the only way this housing market works itself out without causing a px decline. So we are going to compress the mortgage/long rates extra hard before the midterm. That is practically the message here. Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're not gonna destroy the value of their homes so that somebody who didn't work very hard can buy a home." https://t.co/V3cviRAO3F Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're"
X Link 2026-01-29T23:01Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"I agree with this and the last sentence esp. It has to be a real fast furious rates rally but not recessionary. I am with Dave Lev that there is a window to have this immaculate non-recessionary dis/deflation landing but the window is not wide either. The Fed being late is the biggest risk imp. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017017766558028157 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017017766558028157"
X Link 2026-01-29T23:31Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"You do realize you are talking to a fixed income analyst with a time horizon of a next Fed cycle For me to pontificate far into this Nov was already a stretch But joke aside for there to be a sharp rate reduction without a demand shock we need to see some enormous productivity boost sometime this yr. Maybe this whole thing is predicated on a massive AI adaption coming up and we are all gonna be happily jobless by this time next yr. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017018660666126510 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017018660666126510"
X Link 2026-01-29T23:34Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"How to bring mortgage rates down: - Deflation (underway; look at Cleveland Nowcast or Truflation) - YCC (stablecoin has a role here) - GSEs (+ Fed) buying more MBS (constraint is self-imposed) - Convexity hedging (Collapsing duration from MBS refi wave drives duration demand) @yieldsearcher And how do you suggest they do that @yieldsearcher And how do you suggest they do that"
X Link 2026-01-30T00:21Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Dollar is the only thing rallying on Warsh news. Rates equities PMs cryptos all red"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:46Z 21K followers, 12.4K engagements
"Kevin Warsh expressing his love for YCC would be a helluva scene. And it would only affirm my belief that nothing is real and we do live in a giant simulation"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:56Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty remarkable as we are facing: - Parabolic move in gold and silver - Dollar acting volatile - Trump Fed selection tomorrow - Potential govt shutdown this wknd (coin flip according to Polymarket) - Attack on Iran probably this wknd VIX is at 16-handle and MOVE at 60"
X Link 2026-01-30T05:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"PCE est should go down directionally given airfares and healthcare are lower than the corresponding CPI figures for Dec. Dec CPI/PPI show heavier inflation in services than in goods. Typical seasonality (holiday sales on goods but on-peak travels). This reverts in Jan. PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:52Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"For those who reflexively think hot PPIhot CPI From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 What happened Core PPI: 1.7% 4.5% thru Lehman Core CPI: 2.7% 2.4% before collapsing. Consumers can balk; demand elasticity / margin compression are things. Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break. https://t.co/hVX12o9O0U Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange)"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:51Z 21K followers, 21.2K engagements
"Today is a perfect storm where CME speculators are getting carried out and more: - GC on 5% margin vs -11% move - SI on 10% vs -28% Forced liquidations everywhere. But the risk here is flushing out paper traders invite physical buyers accelerating delivery drawdowns. Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk. https://t.co/rRXPxZwrzx Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is"
X Link 2026-01-30T18:13Z 21K followers, 11.8K engagements
"@MarginCall4 Arguable scam or a value trap Future of finance or melting icecube"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:02Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Jan Total Return: Equities: smallcap/cyclicals megacap/tech SPY: +1.5% QQQ: +1.2% IWM: +5.5% Fixed Income: creditrates TLT: -0.03% IEF: -0.2% LQD: +0.3% HYG: +0.6% PM: no comment GLD: +12% SLV: +17% Crypto: 4th straight red mth IBIT: -4.4% ETHA: -10% XRP: -6.2% SOL: -6.0%"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:46Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The fuel was there for sure (erratic and big swings showing lack of liquidity the past few days). I am not shocked to see the drawdown. But what are the odds that LME and HSBC (HK bullion dealer) have major outage on the crucial last day of the physical delivery deadline and circuitbreaker mysteriously does not trigger https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:33Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"3.2Moz or 3% of ready to deliver COMEX inventory released today despite the carnage. One can only wonder what is going on inside the head of every physical buyer looking at this inventory figure and silver $30 cheaper overnight"
X Link 2026-01-31T02:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Btw all those bank failure shitposts aside one has to think there are some major hedge funds who got royally hammered from todays outlier moves in PM right into month-end reporting day"
X Link 2026-01-31T02:24Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Took Richard Nixon to make a deal with China. Took Bismarck to institute social security in Germany. Took Begin and Sadat for Israel and Egypt to make peace. Hardliner credential can be an asset in convincing the market of the merits of a dovish path. @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of randoms on my feed gushing over him. Is it because he is Volcker-lite will help usher in stablecoins or will he do what Trump tells him to do These seem mutually incompatible. But the real effect in floating him seems to be tightening financial @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of"
X Link 2026-01-31T16:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Seeing PM crash yesterday and now crypto making its unusual wknd crash with BTC now 80K I am def asking this question. Did something break"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:35Z 21K followers, 26K engagements
"X has been near unusable for almost the entire day for me. Apologies for not being as responsive"
X Link 2026-01-31T23:05Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Starting to lose track of the layoff tracker the past two wks. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out"
X Link 2026-01-31T23:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Note clothing one of the heaviest inflated items due to tariffs deflating in Jan after holiday season is over. You typically do not see this unless retailers have excess seasonal inventories to get rid of before their fiscal yr end (Jan month end) US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from 1.24% to 0.86% in our independent price data the lowest since [----]. Truflation US CPI today: 0.86% Y/Y The biggest downward drivers were: [--]. Utilities down -0.13% [--]. Clothing -0.08% [--]. Housing -0.05% [--]. Transport -0.05% [--]. Food https://t.co/HFef56JGyl US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from"
X Link 2026-02-01T14:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"China blast furnace profitability (basically Chinese HRC steel px less raw-material costs) hovering around $28/t which is a good indicator for the general Chinese industrial profitability (or lack thereof). A good RT indicator for Chinas PPI which impacts global goods CPI. Scariest chart for Global economy. China fixed investment growth below zero for first time in [--] years excluding COVID blip. https://t.co/dmJbMwFGTz Scariest chart for Global economy. China fixed investment growth below zero for first time in [--] years excluding COVID blip. https://t.co/dmJbMwFGTz"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:21Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Las Vegas December stats Worst hotel occupancy since Jan [--]. Note the ADR and RevPar deflating significantly. For reference CPI Dec Lodging: -0.8% YoY"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:32Z 21K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Total Revenue per Available Seat Miles (TRASM) is a great proxy for the airline fare trend. Q4 Results - UAL: -1.6% YoY - DAL: -0.2% - AAL: -1.6% - LUV: -0.2% - JBLU: +0.2% Avg: -0.7% vs. Dec PPI airfare going into the PCE: +1.7% 🤷 But airfares are deflating that is clear"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:02Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@MillennialRisk Discretionary services and housing ARE deflating though. You disagree Goods are high yes but that is 20% of the total weighting"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:05Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The degree of attacks against this tells me how much FinTwit is going to be caught offside soon. It is the slope of the descent and the composition of the move not the figure that matter. Not to mention seasonally Jan is the seasonal peak. Go check Feds Nowcast (0.1%/2.4%) We're seeing significant cooling across all our independent US inflation indexes: US CPI today: 0.86% (drop from 1.24% yesterday) US PCE today: 1.18% US Core PCE today: 1.38% US BLS Comparison CPI: 0.29% (obtained by applying the BLS CPI weighting and categories to our price https://t.co/ByjcfPOH4F We're seeing significant"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:46Z 21.1K followers, 29.5K engagements
"Inevitable but first China must liberalize the currency and capital controls allow FX appreciation and be willing to run current-account deficits for the RoW. Most importantly for CCP it must brace for a booming wealthy middle class less reliant/obedient to the state. JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:43Z 21K followers, 21.2K engagements
"I am sitting as clueless as the guy next door but all I can say is when things feel lost the 2Y and DXY are the two one-eyed men in the land of the blind"
X Link 2026-02-02T06:08Z 21K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Only so much crypto you can sell to cover your margin losses on PMs. Less than 5% of the overall equity market. Not a big buffer before it spills over to the equities. Hunt Brothers liquidation almost drove MS and ML to BK before the Fed stepped in. The gold and silver liquidation on Friday is a much bigger $ loss. Not saying this is a SHTF moment but I am saying vigilance. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313"
X Link 2026-02-02T06:18Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"The new margin requirement for GC and SI are 8% and 15% respectively. The spots are -9% and -14% right now. Hunt Bro liquidation almost drove ML and MS to BK. This is bigger in $ losses. Crypto (5% of equity mkt) too small to be a buffer. This can get ugly. Lets see"
X Link 2026-02-02T06:36Z 21.1K followers, 16.6K engagements
"Guess we found who provided the margin shortfall overnight. BREAKING: South Korea halts all program trading sell orders as its stock market downturn accelerates. BREAKING: South Korea halts all program trading sell orders as its stock market downturn accelerates"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"8%/15% margins not good enough for this vol. Would not shock me if CME raises the margin requirement again this wk. BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:29Z 21K followers, 24.6K engagements
"I remember FinTwit disparaging Truflation when it started picking up in [----]. And again when it inflected from the peak in [--]. The numbers may be off but Truflation has caught major inflection pts in the past five yrs. A move this significant is worth a heed. Mainstream doesn't know anything about Truflation. However it's certainly been an excellent prediction on the coming trend in PCE and more importantly CPI because THAT's what mainstream does know. Falling below 2% would be something but crashing towards 0% would be even more https://t.co/cEnnSkMO8Y Mainstream doesn't know anything about"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:57Z 21.1K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Good numbers from ISM-Mfg. Always a reminder this is 10% of the economy. Also a valid q in how much of this is seasonality (esp when inventory has been destocked for so long) and weather adjustments (Nation was shut down for a wk or so)"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:28Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"We can have a disinflation (even deflation) with growth. Still my base case. But q is how much can we grow with continuously softening labor mkt. ISM employment of [----] is better than exp but 50=MoM contraction. Internals show [--] sectors saw employment growth and [--] decline"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:42Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Who knew issuing more equities is positive for equities ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower. ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:48Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes gambit on [----] demand inflection"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:26Z 21K followers, 19.6K engagements
"Btw this expansion of inventory is a highly dis/deflationary setup. S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes gambit on [----] demand inflection. https://t.co/SjR9XHrLCX S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:37Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Most hawkish thing I heard from Miran 😂 Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:04Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Coded message on how Citadel views this yrs macro. CITADEL'S GRIFFIN SAYS AI WON'T BE A MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE THIS CYCLE CITADEL'S GRIFFIN SAYS AI WON'T BE A MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE THIS CYCLE"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:54Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Think of what PE firms love to buy: Asset/capex-light Process/labor intensive bottlenecks that allow for high recurring rents High operating leverage (higher revenue = higher margins) How does this survive post-AI Tangible assets = moat rings true in more ways than one. Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash With Zombie Firms Hundreds of private equity firms are now drowning in a sea of competition searching for lifeboats of new capital as they cling to portfolios of nearly unsaleable investments. Meanwhile their investors are losing https://t.co/DFh57p6FQs Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"It is worse if you take out $300b stablecoin market cap. The piggybank for excess liquidity is draining. Crypto is [----] trillion down [----] trillion from its peak. Crypto down 39.49% from its high. https://t.co/LXMJDaobC8 Crypto is [----] trillion down [----] trillion from its peak. Crypto down 39.49% from its high. https://t.co/LXMJDaobC8"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:20Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Bullish Banana Republic Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:32Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:02Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"To think this all started with Kevin Warsh nomination"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:31Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Iran: Planning has been carried out to hold negotiations with the US over the coming days. Iran: Planning has been carried out to hold negotiations with the US over the coming days"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:35Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"IWM green. Entirely conceivable that this is the yr fundamental value analysts finally outperform this year yet earn no bonuses because their tech-focused colleagues drag down the fund"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:54Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"CMG -9% guiding to flat comp (vs +2% cons) in [----]. There goes the consumers discretionary services spending"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:11Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@TexasOncologist I dont think so either (it was a sarcastic comment). But hard to pinpoint what else could have triggered it"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:59Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@Seniorstrategen I agree. Bond market functioning pristinely right now. (Move swap spreads liquidity metrics recent auctions etc) Also credit spreads have not blown out either"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:37Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@doobeedoo2 @NickTimiraos If you look at the latest CPI autos and furnitures showing significant downward MoM moves recently. Hotels -0.8% yoy and airfares (cpi) -2.0%"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:40Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@hstaater Spread still very tight. Drawdown is relatively much tamer than others but yes if they blow out 2Y will react"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:45Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"And this is how. Nvidia CEO: AI will lead to cheaper energy costs. $NVDA Nvidia CEO: AI will lead to cheaper energy costs. $NVDA"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:32Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@StockMomo The matrix is stuck in the 90s. You will be attending those meetings"
X Link 2026-02-04T00:06Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@noruserious @Seniorstrategen I use BBG but you can find it at yahoo finance"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:39Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"The Western civilization is saved Coffee has fallen to its lowest price since August ☕📉 Finally a win 🥳🫂 https://t.co/odnZOPXNli Coffee has fallen to its lowest price since August ☕📉 Finally a win 🥳🫂 https://t.co/odnZOPXNli"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:37Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"There may be some seasonal noise here (given the weather) but Jan Auto sales SAAR at 14.85m lowest since Mar [--]. Looks like auto inflation will be weak this month"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Important thread to read. Some addl context: Feds Cook highlighted insurers exposure to PC as a key area to monitor for credit stress back in Nov. They see the potential systemic nature of the issue. Here is the Fed staffs report on this. Read the conclusion. (Link below) In case youre curious where the losses are the PE industry has been acquiring and then raiding the floats of c.10% of US life insurance assets. Theyve been filling them with private credit and direct lending all using the same private ratings agency to misclassify the loans. In case youre curious where the losses are the PE"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:41Z 20.9K followers, 12.1K engagements
"Pretty interesting that XHB +13% ytd as IEF (7-10yr Treasuries) -0.4%. One of them is wrong"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:33Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"$600m insider contribution sounds like a lot until you realize 1.5% mgmt fee on $14b = $210m/yr so you get a 3yr payback. But this is a lot of liquidity commitment for mid-level employees who prob has to borrow money to invest here"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:40Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@DoomLog_ Mortgage spread can compress more but in the end rates still have to help for mortgage rates to be down meaningfully enuf to help the housing fundamentals"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:39Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:46Z 21K followers, 204.1K engagements
"Tfw your sushi pickup came without wasabi It is that kind of a day"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"The bar is not low but Google can save the mkt"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:26Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty eloquent summary of why there is this eerily calm stalemate in the bond market. They are not leading this time but waiting for the macro regime to decisively tilt one way or another. @BlacklionCTA @Dcpcooks @LongTplexTrader They are THE RISK. At any point in time they can blow up the let it run hot trade by simply pricing in potential inflation. No one has been willing to position for that yet. For the same reason they cant be the risk free flight to quality instrument. Has to be enough @BlacklionCTA @Dcpcooks @LongTplexTrader They are THE RISK. At any point in time they can blow up"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:24Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@tagthatstock It is a tribute to how much VIX has taken money from me over the yrs"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:34Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@fejau_inc I posted it as a yellow warning observation but folks are turning into a defcon5. It is what it is. But the persistency and the constant widening do concern me. Totally could be nothing within a wk and I will be a happy camper"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I remember that. Silicon Valley Bank bust and rumor was that USDC was a major depositor there. Had those depositors not gotten bailed out it would have depegged permanently. But otherwise no one doubts USDCs reserves are there. With Tether the lack of transparency is its best asset and liability. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019204594463645821 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019204594463645821"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:21Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"This is a good chart. Shows you all five hyperscalers will be investing (some significantly) above their internal cash generation. Having a cheap cost of debt is a paramount national interest in more ways than one. @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:32Z 20.9K followers, 16.8K engagements
"@NickWoolos Having high leverage and not being able to invest in capex in this environment will kill companies long run"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:37Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@rupechat @sesamesoymilk I realize that but should be directionally right. Oracle is not going to magically grow out of its funding hole this yr"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:51Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@astanafes [----] capex"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:03Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@RealJohnGaltFla He is right on that though. The issue is that it may cause deflation on the other side"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:07Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"He raises a good point. PC is a major overweight for most asset allocators with significant current liabilities (pensions insurers everyone except endowments). Excess return over UST with zero vol = amazing Sharpe ratio until default risk shows up But they own no PM. 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@MarginCall4 I am not a Korean equity experts by any means but it is safe to blame every softness in semis to MU at this pt"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:05Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"This shitpost alone has more interactions than my every other posts today combined. X is a wild place 😂 BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:09Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@TradFidiGuy It is all reflexive and circular. That capex can and will change depending on the markets reception"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:40Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@TradFidiGuy @mdotjacks25 Cant be training forever though. At some pt they gotta walk the walk"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:56Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@zephyr_z9 That is the way it is and he will end up owning OAI recycling that cash"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:07Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@ser_kingslayer_ @zephyr_z9 That was a tongue in cheek comment on Jensen Huang recycling that cash back to the AI ecosystem. Doesnt have to be OAI but somewhere"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:11Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@ser_kingslayer_ @zephyr_z9 Would surely be interesting to see how all these private AI cos gonna compete with GOOGs $180b warchest"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:16Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@DerivativesDon Good thing is: not much leverage needed if at all"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:39Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"He forgot to add: But a second job. JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job" JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job""
X Link 2026-02-05T03:49Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@thehoaxwatch Not perfect but gives you a sense of directionality though. Not like oracle is going to get out of the funding hole"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:52Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"HY spreads (white) vs. VIX (blue) While the mkt is expressing displeasure in software credit via loan ETFs/BDCs/PE firms public credit remains relatively calm. Absent an acute credit stress (imminent defaults) little reason for the Fed to act; also why rates remain steady"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@JCJC915661 @firstadopter Q is how will Jensen Huang recycle that massive cash inflow back into the AI ecosystem. It may be very much in his interest to keep viable competitors who can match Google and its $180b warchest"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:34Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Imo GOOGs $180b capex announcement likely seals the marriage between NVDA and OAI (and/or some other viable AI competitor(s)). Very much in Jensen Huangs interest to preserve an ecosystem that can put a check on Googles lead and its massive war chest. The arms race is on"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:45Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"So here is the interesting part of the Challenger report. Logistics (31K) and tech (22K) were obvious; those are UPS and AMZN. But right behind them was healthcare (17K) the most since Apr [----] (19K). This is a new data pt. If HC is rolling over there goes the labor mkt"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:49Z 21K followers, 13.4K engagements
"The 2Y is offside. Waller dissented for a cut and noted significant downside risks to labor as many of his contacts suggested upcoming layoffs. Looks like he may be right. https://t.co/HzvXVQWfrF Waller dissented for a cut and noted significant downside risks to labor as many of his contacts suggested upcoming layoffs. Looks like he may be right. https://t.co/HzvXVQWfrF"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:04Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I live for these kinds of Twitter feed placements"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:11Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Circuitbreaker in crypto would be a nice wouldnt it"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:15Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Core PCE MoM Jan 2025: +0.31% Feb 2025: +0.45% Cleveland Feds Core PCE Nowcast: Jan 2026: +0.23% Feb 2026: +0.23% By their estimate they see core PCE going to 2.5% from 2.8% by end of Feb. If the Feds own est is right March cut is very much live"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:21Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I was half-joking when I said cryptos golden age was possible only after liquidating Saylor and/or Tether"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:24Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Why Bessent was hired. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The https://t.co/l0eAjPT5Ky U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:48Z 21K followers, 19.8K engagements
"We just had a back-to-back-to-back triple punch on labor mkt today (Challenger IJC JOLTS) leading to the classic recessionary reaction of rates rally + equity selloff. Now imagine had we not had a [--] day shutdown wed all be on Xanax anxiously waiting for NFP tomorrow. In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺 JOLTS December job openings 🔻 https://t.co/ujtF1exgrr In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:55Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Nobody is an atheist in THIS mkt. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:10Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@phlegminglib Do not disagree that this is increasingly looking like the end game. The signs are there and the writing is clearly on the walls. That said I do expect this will be a longer drawn process and I expect Trump to force China to pay a fortune for it"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:49Z 20.9K followers, [---] engagements
"You waited till now 🚨 BREAKING: THE OLDEST AND RICHEST SATOSHI-ERA WHALE JUST DUMPED [-----] $BTC WORTH $800 MILLION HE HAD BEEN HOLDING SINCE [----] AND NOW HE HAS DUMPED EVERYTHING THIS IS THE START OF A BEAR MARKET. https://t.co/yU9oC2eXV5 🚨 BREAKING: THE OLDEST AND RICHEST SATOSHI-ERA WHALE JUST DUMPED [-----] $BTC WORTH $800 MILLION HE HAD BEEN HOLDING SINCE [----] AND NOW HE HAS DUMPED EVERYTHING THIS IS THE START OF A BEAR MARKET. https://t.co/yU9oC2eXV5"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:00Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@WinningLibtards Recessionary mkt reaction recession"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:01Z 20.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Mary Daly does not vote this year but she is one of the Feds in-house labor mkt experts (alongside Goolsbee) and it is notable that she is becoming incrementally more concerned about the state of the labor market"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:50Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Installment payment stream on another installment payment stream. What stage JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC. JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:52Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Feds Jefferson seeing labor mkt as a greater risk than inflation. Note the last feed where he sees very little cushion left on the labor mkt"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:58Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Isnt that the entire thesis NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@Cessnadriver50 TLT $200 😂"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:30Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"ZIRP without a recession within two yrs is not a crazy thesis imo. Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:36Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"NFP next Wed and CPI Friday. If Trump wants to help the housing/economy for Main St and boost his electoral chances he needs to set the stage for turbo-charged rate cuts soon esp with cCPI about to lap tough Jan print (+0.45%) and the labor market still vulnerable"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:53Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Unpopular opinion: todays move was frontrunning Japanese election this Sunday (+ some profit-taking short covering)"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:18Z 21K followers, 17.9K engagements
"@fallacyalarm Well Feb is the seasonally weak part of the yr. But seasonality went [---] degrees last yr so I am just living day by day"
X Link 2026-02-07T01:22Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"Strong and persistent deflation post-tariffs starting to kick in this yr. We lap tariff middle of this yr. Convexity hedging demand for duration pops once long rate goes down sufficiently as MBS duration collapses 10Y poised to benefit most as we run out of off the run supplies beginning this yr (no 30Y issued 15-20yrs ago). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:02Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Goods are flowing again. ISM and S&P Jan reports highlighted that industrials are restocking at the fastest pace since [----] despite lack of recovery in spot demand to date. But the fact that this is continuing into early Feb is indeed a promising sign. Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close out the week and are now at the highest levels they've been since October [----]. This is a remarkable freight market with no signs of slowing. It continues to reinforce the narrative that market tightness is not just a weather https://t.co/GFD56CCtix Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:24Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@WinningLibtards Non recessionary dis/deflation"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:43Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Great q. [--]. The manufacturing is showing a recovery but this is 10% of the economy. Service sector still showing slowdown per the latest reports. [--]. ADP shows mfg shedding jobs but jobs is a lagging indicator. Back in [----] UR kept going up till Dec when S&P bottomed in Mar. @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:27Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@noruserious The uncertainty def weighs on the general sentiment but if ones view is that scotus is going to strike down tariffs you would wait on restocking. I think people are saying enuf we waited long enuf our inventory is too low time to restock and see how the yr progresses"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:40Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@noruserious TBD but there are some signs that this can be real. Mkt obv thinking that too with cyclicals outperformance this yr"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:45Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@LarryVasqu99365 Open to that possibility. We will know for sure by end of the month"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:33Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting precedent A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"A real name disclosure for once Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:59Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Last yr HYG returned +8.6%. CCC returned 6%. Distressed credit returned -9%. From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Not sure I buy Cramer here but Trump got into office with overwhelming support from crypto bros. Crypto is integral to keeping future UST bids alive. Pathway will never be linear (super volatile in fact) but how bonds and crypto fare by Nov will decide the midterm for DJT. Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard at $60k he's gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve." https://t.co/1VAAp2jK4d Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:19Z 21K followers, 10.5K engagements
"@nasdaq19500 The actual final result is secondary to the question of how much efforts will he put into pump things up"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:06Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Hunter Biden redemption arc in [----] was not on my bingo card. Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender. According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:00Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@DerivativesDon Well put. It really is about the growth"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@DerivativesDon The risk of course is that the Feds bias is to react once everything becomes blatantly obvious (ie late)"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:15Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@PauloMacro And 90% would cheer for it"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:09Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"Long Thread: Vietnam War: East vs. Western Warfare The Vietnam War stands as a prototypical West-meets-East moment where the Wests inherent understanding of warfare was completely upended by a more nebulous Eastern style of engagement. American strategy exemplified by General Westmorelands fixation on kill ratios and decisive engagements treated war as an engineering problem in which force application and quantifiable success on the battlefield would inevitably beget victory. North Vietnam by contrast fought an entirely different war one in which strategy eclipsed tactics and political"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:06Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"While everyones attention is on Iran there seems to be a real proxy battle currently being fought in Iraq which is in the process of forming a new government. Not much news covering this but the situation seems grave enuf that Trump had to cover this topic publicly. Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:55Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The North Vietnamese general Vo Nguyen Giap who oversaw Tet had this to say: The Tet Offensive was not a purely military action. Its main purpose was to influence American public opinion and force the U.S. government to change its policy. The Americans lost in Vietnam because they did not understand that they were fighting a political war. American public never recovered from seeing the embassy in the heart of the capital attacked in broad daylight"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:14Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@GaryHaubold Yes I remember his days. Def very sympathetic to Iran. The fact that there are forces willing to push for him despite Trumps objection says this is a big important fight for Iran"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:27Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"That is a legitimate critique: tariff pass-through is taking longer than expected and there is a risk that we may not fully lap these effects by midyear. The flip side however is that if firms have been unable to pass through much of the tariff impact after this long it raises the question of when/whether they will be able to do so. This suggests strong consumer resistance and high px elasticity which in itself argues that inflation in nondurables should be naturally contained. It is also notable that Truflation shows apparel and household items the two nondurable categories that experienced"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:42Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@tdarling1 We did get December CPI last month. This one will be Jan. The PPI is still getting delayed a bit though"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:45Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"When you have 2/3 of the Diet the opposition here clearly means the FX and the bond markets not the politicians on the other side of the aisle. TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@JellyCrypto 155-160 ideally but if not she def prefers to see that higher"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:56Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@KQ992017 There are still US military forces in Iraq though"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:07Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Pretty remarkable. For a country known for consensus and harmony-seeking culture Japan is handing this government a level of political power concentration not seen since WWII maybe even since Meiji. The financial and geopolitical implications of this will not be trivial. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:32Z 21.1K followers, 15.7K engagements
"@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef Makes sense. Obv the difference was Pearl Harbor was an undispited US territory that would rile up the US public while the farthest Tet got was the US embassy in Saigon"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:58Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Katayama: It may be possible to tap FX reserves to fund state spending though this could create issues if reserves are also needed for intervention. This is very new and just as equally remarkable (at least to me). Japan is thinking of selling US assets to fund the stimulus. Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is in good dialogue with the BOJ BlackRock and IMF executives who understand Japans position. Finance Minister Katayama: Government will seek dialogue with markets on Monday as needed. Finance Minister Katayama: It may be possible Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:04Z 21.1K followers, 17.6K engagements
"@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef I always find it ironic the two countries who were most enthusiastic about removing Chinese culture/characters out of their languages were none other than North Koreans and North Vietnamese"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:06Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestInJapan I see no fault in this logic"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:13Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@EconstratPB Best place in America imo. So surprising there is no major financial firm presence there"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:24Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs It is indeed the experience of many Americans but inflation means rate of increase which is clearly inflecting down. But that said I totally get it that after having accrued 30% inflation lost covid any inflation above zero is painful"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:34Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@FixedIncQuant @EconstratPB San Diego All I see are Qualcomm engineers"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:37Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@FixedIncQuant @EconstratPB I would be more than happy to be proven wrong"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:38Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs Where are you getting 4.7%"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:51Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs So you are effectively saying real consumption growth is zero"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:03Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs Not sure I agree with that but I get where you are going with this"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"You think this is funny until you realize college underemployment here is 41% per NY Fed. Tsinghua University (China's top university) graduate woman delivering food. 😮 China is everything okay 😬 https://t.co/HoIGR7ldX8 Tsinghua University (China's top university) graduate woman delivering food. 😮 China is everything okay 😬 https://t.co/HoIGR7ldX8"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:33Z 21.1K followers, 113.3K engagements
"Takaichis political slogan Translates to Make Japan strong & prosperous Which takes its inspiration (albeit with less militaristic overtone) from the 19th c. Meiji modernization era slogan (Rich state strong army). The nationalism is back"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:05Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@MoarFunCoupons That was last Jan [----] core CPI MoM figure which we will lap in a wk"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:06Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@ArsenalStu They want that inflation"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Trump is clearly super happy about the Japanese election results"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:16Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"All this run it hot rhetoric is really a brake on a large deflationary wave. Takaichi has her work cut out for her"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:23Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Looks like someone is ready to revalue its currency upward. BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings." BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings.""
X Link 2026-02-09T12:39Z 21.1K followers, 15.2K engagements
"@TexasOncologist Japanese bond yields still affecting global term premia. So you got Japan and Hassett counteracting but different part of the curve showing different sensitivity. But these days anything within 5bp dtd move is par for the course"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Japan election out of the way Now the setup is such that we have Hassett lowering expectations for the payroll on Wed and Truflation suggesting a fair bit of risk of CPI coming cold on Fri. I do expect bond mkt to wake up from its slumber this wk. Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that has been) the Feb [--] Japan election is probably the only catalyst left to play for further curve steepening at this stage. Interesting to see 2s10s barely budging with 7bp moves on both legs (5s30s +2bp) Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:29Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Every DM term premia has been following Japans direction since late last yr. Every DM bond competing against Japan. Bessent practically told Japan to stop it when it got out of control a month ago when JGB 30Y was moving 20bp a day. But mkt more or less priced in Japan fiscal policy so q is what more left there near term. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:46Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@JayLeonard 100% agreed. If mkt is willing to give me 100y paper I will issue that right there and then"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:27Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"All you folks trying to come up with exceptions to this are proving my pt here. Yes GE still exists and is paying their debts but it was a AAA-rated company for the longest time but now barely above BBB. Also they almost went BK in 2008; got bailed out. 100y is a long time. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:57Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This is starting to make more sense isnt it (Source: Truflation) Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:28Z 21.1K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Does not preclude a big flush/reset before moon but crypto is without a doubt a strategic national interest. Only Q is: which blockchains 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:33Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@TotemMacro So the irony is that as a deflationist I am tempted to trade this as a super duration instrument. But I still think 100Y corporate bond is a crazy bad idea"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:52Z 21.1K followers, 42.9K engagements
"I know many Asian countries are hyperfocused on FX as FX drives inflation but what Miran says below is true for the US. That is because goods is only 20% of the economy and import is a subsector of that. Wage rent and energy (3 biggest service cost items) drive US inflation. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been relatively modest. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"It is a feature not a bug. It is logical that consumer essentials would have better pricing power given lack of elasticity compared to durables and discretionaries. I am still gonna need clorox wipes if it costs me $8 from $5 (but obv I will switch to private labels on the way). It is pure math with a specific set of weightings but I do not object to your pt that standard of living is degrading when we have less money to spend on discretionaries. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:18Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"$400b bond issues from hyperscalers sounds like a lot and it is. Until you realize this is less than one quarters worth of US federal deficit. MS expects hyperscalers to borrow $400 billion this year. Oracle: $25B done Alphabet: $20B pricing now IG spreads at two-decade tights. Supply is coming. $ORCL $GOOG https://t.co/5zYKo3qtpO MS expects hyperscalers to borrow $400 billion this year. Oracle: $25B done Alphabet: $20B pricing now IG spreads at two-decade tights. Supply is coming. $ORCL $GOOG https://t.co/5zYKo3qtpO"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:27Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty good summary of what Clarity Act is and what the meeting between the banks and crypto folks today will try to resolve. Expect some headlines around this. 🚨 The White House is holding a closed door meeting tomorrow to decide the future of the U.S. crypto market structure bill. The White House wants both sides to reach compromise language by the end of Feb [----] with stablecoin yield being the main issue blocking the bill. The https://t.co/aIFSX4Ui3p 🚨 The White House is holding a closed door meeting tomorrow to decide the future of the U.S. crypto market structure bill. The White House"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:41Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Control Group Oct: +0.5% (was +0.6%) Nov: +0.2% (was +0.4%) Dec: -0.1% What is most notable on the internals is that previously resilient nondurables (personal care apparels and sporting goods) and restaurants are inflecting lower. Truflations nondurable trend making sense. Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2% Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2%"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:47Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This is why consumer inflation is inflecting lower despite tariffs. Consumers are super price sensitive. This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:14Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
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