# ![@walt373 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::193590927.png) @walt373 Walter

Walter posts on X about stocks, market, money, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -87%
- [--] Month [------] -99%
- [--] Months [---------] +528%
- [--] Year [----------] +394%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -96%
- [--] Months [---] +519%
- [--] Year [---] +103%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.18%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.60%
- [--] Months [-----] +5.30%
- [--] Year [-----] +6.90%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks), [market](/topic/market), [money](/topic/money), [in the](/topic/in-the), [vix](/topic/vix), [if you](/topic/if-you), [china](/topic/china), [momentum](/topic/momentum), [over the](/topic/over-the), [trade](/topic/trade)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@stokedonwaves](/creator/undefined) [@orrdavid](/creator/undefined) [@realherbhoover](/creator/undefined) [@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@rodrigoethe](/creator/undefined) [@lurker8679](/creator/undefined) [@harrisonkatz](/creator/undefined) [@sowingalphaseed](/creator/undefined) [@bluechip1](/creator/undefined) [@markgutman9](/creator/undefined) [@kyrradios](/creator/undefined) [@alphaexllc](/creator/undefined) [@frothyassets](/creator/undefined) [@qtmachine](/creator/undefined) [@meiam](/creator/undefined) [@glbeaty](/creator/undefined) [@vanckzhu](/creator/undefined) [@hedgedirty](/creator/undefined) [@roicmatters](/creator/undefined) [@garyheff](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI)](/topic/$smci) [GameStop, Corp. (GME)](/topic/$gme) [ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)](/topic/$arkk) [Figma, Inc. (FIG)](/topic/$fig) [Limitus (LMT)](/topic/$lmt) [Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI)](/topic/$atvi) [AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC)](/topic/$amc) [Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)](/topic/$siri) [Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty SiriusXM Common Stock (LSXMK)](/topic/$lsxmk) [Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK)](/topic/$deck) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@AlbertBridgeCap Im the example above both securities have negative returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1167876814930235392)  2019-08-31T19:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Isn't "permanent impairment of capital" just the tuxedo Pooh version of "you can't loose if you don't sell""  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1416066530727669761)  2021-07-16T16:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Steep dropoff in $NFLX search % metric on Alexa: http://t.co/EpRbyoH4 Search % = unbookmarked users should correlate with new subs http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/4251/nflx2.jpg http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/4251/nflx2.jpg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/147462468803887104)  2011-12-15T23:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If the BDI collapse is due to oversupply. ships last for a long time. Largest shipbuilder is South Korea. $EWY http://t.co/n7lkZ98F http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/009540:KS http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/009540:KS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/166039225064624128)  2012-02-05T06:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Bought some 30-year TIPS for the first time. 2.4% real yield seems like a good deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1712884976486621511)  2023-10-13T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Weird that $OARK was barely up considering $ARKK was +5.6%. Turns out they are short a sort of diagonal call spread They are supposed to be long Actively managed ETFs = negative alpha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1720871489409335455)  2023-11-04T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Broad indices unch over the past [--] yrs but the $QYLD $XYLD $RYLD covered call ETFs all underperformed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1743272068773290163)  2024-01-05T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Its impressive how these YieldMax ETFs manage to underperform to consistently. Some days dramatically like $OARK yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756487742677008790)  2024-02-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anyone know what the hell happened to $CYA in Oct last year -85% in a few days. Looks more like a blowup than something more run-of-the-mill. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-16/black-swan-etfs-are-facing-their-own-doomsday-after-a-99-plunge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-16/black-swan-etfs-are-facing-their-own-doomsday-after-a-99-plunge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1760421790877102189)  2024-02-21T21:50Z [----] followers, 80K engagements


"BTC cash-futures basis trade looks interesting. Spread is 16% annualized. And $BITO has underperformed spot by 17% over the past year. Seems easier to do now with the spot ETFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1761155665618141525)  2024-02-23T22:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Looking at the last S&P [---] rebalance [--] symbols were added: UBER JBL and BLDR. Announced 12/1 and effective 12/18. You'd think this would be somewhat priced in but they were all up 10%+ in a few weeks. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231201-1467851/1467851_dec2023shuf.pdf https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231201-1467851/1467851_dec2023shuf.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1761432384761999361)  2024-02-24T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The amount of after-tax alpha you can get with $BOXX is kind of insane. I think it even makes sense to borrow on margin at a slightly higher interest rate to buy it if your tax rate is high and you hold it long enough. You can also leverage it up like [--] times in IB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785668397272895801)  2024-05-01T13:51Z [----] followers, 25.4K engagements


"Mini blowup in Simplify Macro Strategy ETF $FIG selling $CVNA straddles into earnings. Their other ETF $CYA got crushed doing dumb stuff and no longer exists. Sketch. https://x.com/walt373/status/1760421790877102189 Anyone know what the hell happened to $CYA in Oct last year -85% in a few days. Looks more like a blowup than something more run-of-the-mill. https://t.co/5KVMJtWgik https://t.co/GKBEBLvov7 https://x.com/walt373/status/1760421790877102189 Anyone know what the hell happened to $CYA in Oct last year -85% in a few days. Looks more like a blowup than something more run-of-the-mill."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1786451601982361647)  2024-05-03T17:43Z [----] followers, 119.5K engagements


"@drpetetobin So much alpha just shorting every active ETF if most of them didn't have such high borrow rates https://x.com/walt373/status/1698005480994463977 https://x.com/walt373/status/1698005480994463977"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1786456016839680427)  2024-05-03T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$OXY with the Buffett puts and now $AAPL with the Buffett calls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1786794416612471266)  2024-05-04T16:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@harrisonkatz @orrdavid @stoked_on_waves Nicely done. Astronomical effective rate when the stock was at pennies. What % of your FFIE was getting lent out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1791112469869445500)  2024-05-16T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I asked Deep Research to find me some near-bankrupt companies and it suggested AMC BYND NKLA PTON SPCE. It thought for [--] minutes and wrote me a [--] page report. Not too shabby"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1887591747833995625)  2025-02-06T19:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves I dont think path matters for the option pricing if the market makers are delta hedging daily. Matters for non-hedgers though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1890936571731288568)  2025-02-16T01:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Buffett is the 🐐 because hes been doing it for so long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1891572570924765286)  2025-02-17T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@themagicbakery Might be worth a shot if it trades down to $6 again. I'm short some $4/$5 puts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1928571903725162626)  2025-05-30T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MEHCQ 23andMe is an interesting special situation. I think it's worth $4-6. Regeneron offered to buy most of it for $256M cash + assuming some liabilities like deferred revenue. Attached monthly financials as of 4/30. Upside with possibility of overbid: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/23andme-founder-aims-restart-auction-with-major-corporate-backing-2025-06-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/23andme-founder-aims-restart-auction-with-major-corporate-backing-2025-06-01/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1929652321480593537)  2025-06-02T21:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MEHCQ 23andMe bidding could get a little crazy https://www.wsj.com/articles/23andmes-former-ceo-pushes-purchase-price-nearly-50-million-higher-7ec98421 https://www.wsj.com/articles/23andmes-former-ceo-pushes-purchase-price-nearly-50-million-higher-7ec98421"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1930484883463295011)  2025-06-05T04:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MEHCQ upside is immense right now. If TTAM/Oracle wants it they need to come in strong since they only get one shot and Regeneron gets the last look. A bid of $500M would make the stock worth $14. $1B bid would make this one for the ages"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1930655335414394883)  2025-06-05T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MEHCQ 23andMe will release its monthly operating report soon which will have the balance sheet post-TTAM sale and show a big positive book value for the first time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1961479902336634963)  2025-08-29T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MEHCQ book value of $7.46/share excluding intangible assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1963103675498246328)  2025-09-03T04:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@marginofdanger Any idea why MEHCQ has been so weak lately"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1979279743850606850)  2025-10-17T20:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$IRBT 8-K lots of new info -Waiver to 12/1 -The only potential buyer withdrew last week. They offered a price "significantly below" the stock price -Not in advanced negotiations with anyone now -Likely files bk if no new financing "in the near term" https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000080cik=1159167 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000080cik=1159167"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1982850098934751667)  2025-10-27T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @RealHerbHoover Also surprised they didn't accept any deal $0. Maybe buyer wanted Carlyle to take a haircut Carlyle allowed restricted $ drawdown bc of talks. If bidder was the vendor I wonder if they played games to get payables paid down a bit. Now Carlyle has nothing left to wait for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1982858815558299845)  2025-10-27T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I just realized SGOV only requires 1% margin in IBKR. So if you have extra cash you can put it in SGOV for quite a bit more yield than IBKR pays you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1984841887199740301)  2025-11-02T04:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"To clarify you shouldn't buy SGOV on margin since the margin interest rate is higher. Even if you have extra cash from short sales. Since I believe IBKR does not net out borrowed cash with short sale cash (you pay margin % on borrowed cash and earn benchmark % on SS cash)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1985058590827176411)  2025-11-02T18:57Z [----] followers, 17.6K engagements


"$IRBT 10-Q -Unlikely to make a deal outside of bankruptcy -Unsecured creditors would likely receive little to no recovery in bankruptcy https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000091cik=1159167 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000091cik=1159167"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1986560988217249810)  2025-11-06T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves FCNCB is OTC. can't buy on margin in IBKR unfortunately"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1989076575762149631)  2025-11-13T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"About half of Simplify's $SVOL is just other Simplify ETFs. $SVOL holds $QIS which holds $FOXY which holds $SBIL. It's like a Simplify ETF Matryoshka doll. Reluctant to retweet this given the number of good folks I know at Simplify. But I'd hope my friends would call me out if they think I've crossed the line. Charging the pass-through cost on $SBIL really flies in the face of industry standards. https://t.co/u7itbYnmzX Reluctant to retweet this given the number of good folks I know at Simplify. But I'd hope my friends would call me out if they think I've crossed the line. Charging the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1993078112784204175)  2025-11-24T22:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MEHCQ BK plan confirmed and effective soon. Currently trading at $3.70. I'm guessing it will liquidate for $5-6. Balance sheet as of 10/31 shows about $6.70 of book value (excluding intangible assets):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1996646273378931025)  2025-12-04T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Matt Levine on HTB stocks. They perform extremely poorly but shorting them still loses money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1996722480182911245)  2025-12-04T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MaxJSteinberg Check with their customer support. For a frozen short I've 1) asked them if it was possible to lower the rate and they agreed to and 2) gotten out of a short using the dollar for lot form (pdf) https://www.interactivebrokers.com/download/DollarForLotForm.pdf https://www.interactivebrokers.com/download/DollarForLotForm.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2000681181273038854)  2025-12-15T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@frothyassets Options may be overpriced if you're delta hedging every day but at the same time massively +EV if you hold w/o hedging. There's that saying you can't eat Sharpe but this kind of lets you. Also capital efficient since you're getting high leverage on an already leveraged portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2008967460519915623)  2026-01-07T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Once in a while you find a trade so good it changes your beliefs about whats possible in markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2012625161921384689)  2026-01-17T20:36Z [----] followers, 16.3K engagements


"More broadly Im thinking about the explore/exploit tradeoff. After finding a few of these spending more time exploring starts to make more sense. I think many people find a niche and get stuck at a local maximum not realizing theres a lot more out there than they know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2012631343981568093)  2026-01-17T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Sell an ITM Jan [----] covered call to get your margin back and not pay taxes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2013687401948815672)  2026-01-20T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@orrdavid And it explains why most active managers underperform. Skill is skewed but if you generously assume everyone has average skill picking a random concentrated portfolio means the chance of having a portfolio that holds none of the super stocks is high and doomed to underperform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2014764047963455896)  2026-01-23T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SowingAlphaSeed @RodriGo_ethe The long term TIPS have a lot of duration so could fall a lot if long term rates go crazy. But Im guessing the government would rather cap rates than let that happen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2014819406564520266)  2026-01-23T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SowingAlphaSeed @RodriGo_ethe These could print in a financial repression scenario with lower yields and higher inflation. Gold/silver are the obviously plays but maybe too much bubble risk now for long term positions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2014809038353998298)  2026-01-23T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SowingAlphaSeed @RodriGo_ethe $LTPZ only requires 7% margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2014809734151311488)  2026-01-23T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ShmuelLon Warrants are struck at $11.50 so I don't think they really matter. The lockup ended Jan [--] but maybe insiders plan to sell more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2016923038877372913)  2026-01-29T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Nice article on how badly YieldMax ETFs have lagged their underlyings. Big up moves hurt but even for the stocks that were flat/down the ETFs still sucked. Stock/ETF might be pair trades worth doing https://www.etf.com/sections/features/yieldmaxs-income-illusion https://www.etf.com/sections/features/yieldmaxs-income-illusion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2016956122784006492)  2026-01-29T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@spreadbetz Remind me what happened [--] years ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2016984835177283906)  2026-01-29T21:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@finphysnerd Not really sure but I have some guesses. [--]. Covered calls underperform in a bull market [--]. Actively managed so timing could be bad [--]. Paying costs/spreads whenever they trade [--]. They arent delta hedging just letting things run - strong trends will overcome the VRP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2017066589334499481)  2026-01-30T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Investors eventually catch on and the inefficiency of gradual one-way moves start giving way to more sudden sharper moves. Megacaps jumping 10-20% a day and entire sectors (e.g. semis software) move with speed that shock investors who lived in an age of relative stability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2017668700581544034)  2026-01-31T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SOXS [----] $80 calls are bid at $0.28. That's 11% of the SOXS price of $2.58. SOXS would have to go up 31x to get ITM. If semis went down 100% tomorrow this would only 3x. Seems like the path to a 31x is practically impossible considering the vol drag in such a bearish scenario"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2009364892160319698)  2026-01-08T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting factoid on S&P [---] options https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4926074 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4926074"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2015648983486529554)  2026-01-26T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Been thinking about implications of AI disruption on investing. When incumbents fall and new upstarts emerge stocks usually dont go from [---] to [--] or vice versa overnight - they get there over time forming strong trends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2017668694902448361)  2026-01-31T18:37Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements


"Momentum investors who win on trends caused by real fundamentals take their profits to chase fake trends too. Dumb money that got lucky cant tell the difference but now they have enough capital to really move things"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2017668698094309592)  2026-01-31T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Quality/moat investing is often a bet on stability. The ideal environment for many of these companies is one where the world changes slowly so they easily stay on top and print money decade after decade. Moats wont defend your castle anymore when someone invents bomber planes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2017668704075473230)  2026-01-31T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Many investors myself included feel like things are getting increasingly weird in the market. But if its due to AI (and indexing and options) and they keep growing its dangerous to rely on backtests/experience based on a world of stability that doesnt exist anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2017668706369785990)  2026-01-31T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Adding onto this thread - its possible the [--] to [---] companies arent public. I think we could see one-man shows with armies of AI agents take down giant incumbents. What happens to profitability when competition increases 100-fold We assume AGI - bubble but maybe its a crash Been thinking about implications of AI disruption on investing. When incumbents fall and new upstarts emerge stocks usually dont go from [---] to [--] or vice versa overnight - they get there over time forming strong trends. Been thinking about implications of AI disruption on investing. When incumbents fall and new upstarts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2018832305335525816)  2026-02-03T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Kelly tells you the mathematically optimal bet size given the risk/reward of a bet. When you bet too big your returns fall. Not risk-adjusted returns actual returns. Overbet enough and your returns go negative. But when you underbet you still get most of the returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1454593803818569728)  2021-10-30T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$LOGC delisting on 6/3. Initial reaction -23% but recovered halfway. Old WISH stock now just a cash box with $6/share cash and $2.7B NOLs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1928566726049796155)  2025-05-30T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"There are two kinds of momentum stocks: ones that are being bought because theyre going up and ones that are being bought *despite* going up. If the stock starts dipping the buyers become less eager in the former and more eager in the latter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1931490692322243037)  2025-06-07T23:17Z [----] followers, 23.9K engagements


"$BELFA / $BELFB is an interesting spread. Trading near the lows of the range going back to [----]. $BELFA $BELFB pair trade is starting to look like an interesting #specialsits. Since Halloween last year BELFA (the voting stock that controls the company) is up 19% while BELFB (non-voting non-controlling stock) is up 102%. $BELFA $BELFB pair trade is starting to look like an interesting #specialsits. Since Halloween last year BELFA (the voting stock that controls the company) is up 19% while BELFB (non-voting non-controlling stock) is up 102%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1989074262041469415)  2025-11-13T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Breakeven if $ORR makes 7% in half a year. easy bet June 18th [--] strike calls seem randomly underpriced if anyone wants to gamble. June 18th [--] strike calls seem randomly underpriced if anyone wants to gamble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2008952722586800260)  2026-01-07T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TLT calls look interesting. Long bonds have gone nowhere for three years and IV is near lows. If the software massacre is to be believed AI could cause a lot of job losses and deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2019841127642546665)  2026-02-06T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"These $ORR calls have doubled in a month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2020873348117365133)  2026-02-09T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$PEW is a net-net with cash market cap not incinerating money buying back shares and you can sell [----] $2.50 puts for $0.60 (85% IV). Its already a net-net and itd have to fall 40% for those puts to break even. Not sure if Im missing something since short interest is 10%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2016658952541393138)  2026-01-28T23:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Something is not right when your whole industry looks like a 3x leverage or vol ETF $MJ $MSOS $POTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1662176443898445824)  2023-05-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Reddit $RDDT is looking really interesting. 7th most visited site on the internet. 70% yoy revenue growth 21x fwd P/E $2B net cash. Insider just bought $7.5M of stock. Put up [--] profitable quarters so could be eligible for S&P [---] inclusion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2022564659031871889)  2026-02-14T06:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Crunch time for $TSLA. $230M SCTY converts mature Nov [--]. Makes no sense to pay and file soon after. If BK anytime soon responsible thing to do would be to enter with as much cash as possible to maximize chance of survival and get better DIP terms. Also voidable preference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1053796934681616390)  2018-10-20T23:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's an interesting concept. Look for trades where you or your counterparty has an absolute advantage. These should be on average better trades than ones based on information asymmetry since they are potentially win-win for both sides"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1089639221722316800)  2019-01-27T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$DHR price-insensitive arbs pushed the price up. Similar split-off exchanges $LMT $PG $LLY all fell in the weeks following the deadline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1206673048910348289)  2019-12-16T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"TLRY has become a famous short-selling case study and here was @MidwestHedgie calling it. In light of the $TSLA blow-off top here's my Kase Learning short presentation on $TLRY. Lots of chart talk in here. https://t.co/3OyMxWY80c In light of the $TSLA blow-off top here's my Kase Learning short presentation on $TLRY. Lots of chart talk in here. https://t.co/3OyMxWY80c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1228777916818849792)  2020-02-15T20:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Value functions well in panics but is helpless in bubbles which seem increasingly common. A framework that expects to ignore them is an implicit bet that the forces driving the trend will reverse. Neither relaxing quality/valuation hurdles nor going high % cash seem appealing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1391788182681886723)  2021-05-10T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Short term trading TA macro market timing options short selling even active investing in general common wisdom is these are fools errands. But I think the more you trade the less believable market efficiency becomes. Some alpha is hidden by the rules we were told"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1451438851420004353)  2021-10-22T06:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Suppose you believe a stock is going up first then ultimately down and both the long and short are equally attractive +EV bets. Buy or sell Why not both Think as separate bets. Both happening to be the same stock long and short offset a bonus in terms of risk margin fees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1635787339153780743)  2023-03-14T23:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Haven't been following closely but some $ATVI options give you good odds if the deal is likely to go through"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1639664221762859010)  2023-03-25T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"We saw this with companies tinkering with crypto and it predictably flamed out. Difference is crypto has proven its uselessness over years while AI was immediately useful. Even non-tech co's will be fighting in the AI wars and $NVDA will be arming them. Shorting it is dumb IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1662138870555721738)  2023-05-26T16:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Notably absent from the narrow breadth melt-up is $TSLA. Kicked out of the cool kids club. Market no longer interested in fake AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1662165756824387605)  2023-05-26T18:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I thought this discussion by Cem was very good. Connects the dots on narrow breadth vol compression liquidity all the good stuff. Minute [--]. https://t.co/ej0p4pmc5M Minute [--]. https://t.co/ej0p4pmc5M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1664130158410825728)  2023-06-01T04:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QT_Machine I thought he made a few good timing calls. Did not know about his fund performance. Curious if you have more details"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1664144645092265986)  2023-06-01T05:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A clue $ATVI is closing before the 7/18 deadline. $90 7/21 calls for $3 look interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1679493585270349824)  2023-07-13T14:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"TSLA COIN CVNA now AMC - seems like the market is out to get Chanos. What else is he short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1682549954223505408)  2023-07-23T00:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@GameofTrades_ I wonder if the transition to mostly long-term fixed rate mortgages post-GFC makes housing less sensitive to interest rates and thus less of a leading sector of recessions Seems to be a big diff vs previous cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1682818314144235527)  2023-07-22T18:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Also would explain some anomolies like high vol and glamour stocks underperforming over the long term. They are paying for this option. Some exciting tech stock is a lot more likely to get into a bubble than a boring bank and you get an opportunity to monetize the option"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1683146997094658048)  2023-07-23T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just for fun a 1000% simple interest rate if compounded daily comes out to 1925283%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1683263590076121095)  2023-07-23T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@HotDogCap US govt owns 30% of the shares and MFN owns most of the rest. Seems risky even if shares are ultimately worthless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1686433827441233920)  2023-08-01T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Nice video explaining the room temperature superconductor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1686528981212778497)  2023-08-02T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thinking now could be the time to press junk shorts after a furious squeeze season including BK stocks and the impending demolition of meme stronghold AMC. Note junk weakness as BBBY was being death spiraled. coincidence Student loans restarting might also hamper buyers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1690362236542361600)  2023-08-12T13:58Z [----] followers, 42.6K engagements


"Don't know anything about telecom but $T puts look cheap w/ mid-20s IV. Very leveraged. Interest should go higher as they roll debt. 2nd largest non-bank holding in $LQD. A lot of torque if credit spreads blow out. Altman Z-score = [---]. Chart looks ugly. Minimal short interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1690416597247082496)  2023-08-12T17:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Trading days since VIX [--] going back to [----] Calm periods of at least [--] months: [--] Average duration: [---] days Median duration: [---] days Currently: [---] days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1691510625782910976)  2023-08-15T18:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$JNJ $KVUE tender offer caused a big volume ramp in both stocks. KVUE borrow rate got up to 54%. Arbs acted rationally to capture that spread but maybe pushed the prices too far from the standpoint of longer term investors. Guessing prices will revert to some degree"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1692574199959765055)  2023-08-18T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Perryhrod I think the biggest risk is there is a delay of the conversion then your puts die. Or if there's some operational risk with the options/reverse split/conversion/your broker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1692754419400557040)  2023-08-19T04:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It's funny seeing people say $NVDA is in a massive bubble at 35x sales not realizing they are probably trading at like 35x forward earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1694760902711492933)  2023-08-24T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Smart APE sales by Antara before conversion - got 50% more than current price. Prob contributed a lot to the $AMC collapse as it kept spread wide for arbs to pile in. I suspect there were a lot of "one-sided arbs" selling APE as well. 800% CTB is a hell of a limit to arbitrage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1695806358975578187)  2023-08-27T14:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Most of the move was just the spread closing. With 2x as many APE shares as $AMC predictable final price would be closer to APE. Apes in for a surprise as short interest and CTB collapse due to arb positions flattening then dilution. Squeeze dreams are over until shorts reload"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1695808542530298234)  2023-08-27T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@_me_I_am_ Almost all the short interest was in the arb which disappeared when their long APE turned into AMC and flattened their short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1696558337343607155)  2023-08-29T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@_me_I_am_ APE was converted into AMC now it's just one security with one CUSIP. That's literally the arb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1696559706339266915)  2023-08-29T16:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ChefDrew702 @CEOAdam @AMCTheatres @ODEONCinemas @cvpayne @unusual_whales @AMCHelps Almost all the short interest was in the arb long APE + short AMC. So the SI disappeared when their long APE turned into AMC and cancelled out their short. Plus the conversion tripled the float"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1696625875783954783)  2023-08-29T20:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@planert41 I got a piece of that too. UWTI LEAP options were still trading with [--] years of time value after the announcement they would be liquidated in [--] days. Guess the MM didn't see the memo. One of the clearest mispricings I've ever seen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1698046500159316060)  2023-09-02T18:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The problem with stocks for the long run and calculating the equity risk premium using the best performing market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1698096036709822527)  2023-09-02T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""Stocks for the long run" is maybe the most strongly held belief among investors but is based on an equity risk premium that's much too high. Staggering to think about how much $ is misallocated based on this. We took the most extreme outlier and called it the expected return. @walt373 Yes. At the risk of appearing self-promotional i would add something i wrote a few years ago: https://t.co/PSHdWSIbPm @walt373 Yes. At the risk of appearing self-promotional i would add something i wrote a few years ago: https://t.co/PSHdWSIbPm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1698361045713068216)  2023-09-03T15:43Z [----] followers, 27.3K engagements


"@orrdavid Bulls: Ch [--] is off the table Bears: some fates are worse than death"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1699475909168840784)  2023-09-06T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Another option selling ETF. With enough price-insensitive sellers maybe risk premium will go negative. I like the idea of shorting these ETFs if CTB is low. Benefit from option tx fees and slippage and defer tax gains while getting a tax shield from the gimmicky dividends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1702356974724133263)  2023-09-14T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'm mixed on TA but some charts tell a good story. Below is BHC/VRX/Valeant. A lot going on in the real world amplified by sentiment evident in price. Once the spell's broken hard to revive the magic. Avoid pain by not being short on the left side not being long on the right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1705953589988892839)  2023-09-24T14:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When GBTC traded at a premium a bitcoin bull thesis was that GBTC would buy bitcoins and lock them up forever. So GBTC becoming an ETF is bearish as that's reversed I'm guessing that long-suffering GBTC longs would be eager to sell. And launch of BTC futures/BITO marked tops"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1706120295080194441)  2023-09-25T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Stocks peaked in [----] and [----] right as treasury yields broke out. Let the bear in me dream a little"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1706768167601660291)  2023-09-26T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I didn't realize how poorly low vol was doing this year. YTD: SPLV -6.5% SPHB +13.5%. Many factors are underperforming this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1708123536013869464)  2023-09-30T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I think options are often worth buying if used to actually hedge instead of gain massive leverage. Obviously don't overpay but there's a lot of value in outsourcing risk management to institutions with extreme diversification and much better financing and access to borrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1708155192800358907)  2023-09-30T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""Asymmetry" is often cited as a positive when it's really a negative IMO. What you actually want is cheap asymmetry but "cheap" is doing all the work here. Holding EV constant you'd rather have higher win rate than right tail (for a standalone investment maybe not a hedge)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1708169113212768590)  2023-09-30T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$LMT is potentially interesting at pre-Ukraine price despite "end of Pax Americana". It seems to be getting sold off along with defensives/low vol during the bond rout. But at 15x earnings I wouldn't consider it a real bond proxy unlike other say staples at 25x-30x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1711018587266191721)  2023-10-08T13:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RodriGo_ethe I'm considering just buying a basket of defense stocks. I suspect we get even better prices if there is downside momentum into year end due to window dressing/tax loss selling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1711021453292806146)  2023-10-08T14:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For context TIPS during the depths of the [--] crash sometimes cited as one of the best risk/reward trades of that market peaked at a little over 3% real yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1712903753035088139)  2023-10-13T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I got the idea from this video"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1712903755186799025)  2023-10-13T18:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Hypothetically what's stopping a terrorist organization from maxing out on VIX calls one day before a major terrorist attack Then using those profits to fund more attacks and so on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1712951580217970693)  2023-10-13T22:00Z [----] followers, 14.2K engagements


"@RealHerbHoover The deterrent for terror attacks is like the CIA and US armed forces. The deterrent for financial exploits is. KYC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1713040921971806614)  2023-10-14T03:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Seems like many shitcos are crossing a kind of event horizon where their market caps get so small relative to losses that they can't fund themselves with equity anymore without death spiraling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1715187142802964697)  2023-10-20T02:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Those dismissing the possibility of a Lehman moment in China seem to be forgetting the US government consciously decided to let Lehman fail. Control gives governments the power to make catastrophically bad choices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1715930496029319319)  2023-10-22T03:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@glbeaty Really high short interest though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1721629533223211120)  2023-11-06T20:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$PLUG is like the meme stock equivalent of the Greenland shark that's been alive before Columbus discovered the Americas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1723011999833940217)  2023-11-10T16:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Argument against shorting on the way up: almost everything is more of a "mountain" rather than "crash" chart. You get momentum up AND down. Sudden collapses are rare. So even if you nail the exact top reward isn't great. Don't want to trade strong trends with mean reversion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1723390970291466526)  2023-11-11T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I think I'm much higher than consensus on the chance that AGI happens within the next [--] years. And the resulting bubble could make this year's AI "bubble" a small blip on the chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1726273356142375148)  2023-11-19T16:16Z [----] followers, 32.8K engagements


"IMO: it's a tech revolution on par with the internet computers etc. Most are skeptical it will happen anytime soon. Many believe AI to be a total fad cynical after seeing the tech froth of the past decade. Lot of potential for changing of minds and markets overshoot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1726288095761613293)  2023-11-19T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @RealHerbHoover Short "democratizing finance""  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1730660476210573459)  2023-12-01T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This is mean reverting if you are an immortal vampire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1731109558234284330)  2023-12-03T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EBITDUUUH A few historical curves from [----] [----] [----] and [----] on the day before Dec expiration. 2022/21 10-11% contango but VIX in 20s. [----] looks similar: 12ish VIX and 19% contango. VXX -10% over the next month. [----] was even lower and flatter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1737136218733719601)  2023-12-19T15:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@blue_chip1 They will go closing-only and become pretty illiquid. But you can always buy the stock and exercise the puts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1737202324383113412)  2023-12-19T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@lurker8679 @blue_chip1 I think this is determined by the OCC. I would check for the memo to make sure it is settled in cash before exercising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1737226207920550195)  2023-12-19T21:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Demographic collapse can be solved by technology"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1737855366816518218)  2023-12-21T15:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@skannamalai @blue_chip1 @handle07 You can always buy the stock and exercise the puts. They can be very illiquid after delisting since the options go "closing only" so make sure you don't sell them for less than intrinsic value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1740473244015026482)  2023-12-28T20:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@lurker8679 Thanks. Some of my shorts went bankrupt and I found religion on not timing the market at a lucky time haha. Didnt go massively long but at least flipped to small positive beta before the big rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1741155923375149421)  2023-12-30T17:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Almost every list of contrarian [----] trades Ive seen is long China. Even Ive taken some profits on puts and Im a China permabear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741952222160699401)  2024-01-01T22:39Z [----] followers, 27.5K engagements


"@CrosscheckC But some stocks are much more violent than others. I would simply try to avoid the squeeziest stuff and I think squeeziness does persist over time. But like you said if youre going to short a potential 5xer then definitely leave some room. Or better yet nail the timing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1741954518512779522)  2024-01-01T22:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney The short levered ETF trade gets hurt when it trends while going up. The commodity ETFs can trend too much if theres big contango/backwardation. The -3x equity ETFs are pretty good usually trend down or choppy up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1742692766516236736)  2024-01-03T23:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid @RealHerbHoover @stoked_on_waves @vanckzhu @HedgeDirty @roicmatters I don't bother with the 3x long ETF anymore. The short gets into trouble when it's quietly trending up. Short the -3x ETFs works because markets tend to either quietly trend up or decline with increasing volatility. So short SQQQ + otm QQQ puts is better IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1742772384426262984)  2024-01-04T04:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid @RealHerbHoover @stoked_on_waves @vanckzhu @HedgeDirty @roicmatters And its very tax efficient. Ideally you never realize gains on the -3x ETF and take losses on your puts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742775895176192388)  2024-01-04T05:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@frothyassets @orrdavid @GuyImpatient There's more reflexivity for stocks reliant on markets. No matter how worthless the company if they can sell a tiny % of market cap to fund themselves there's no forcing mechanism for the fundamentals to matter anytime soon. Then shorts are at the mercy of the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1742960006025142658)  2024-01-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Concept I have been thinking about: tax-related reflexivity. If you have a large unrealized gain youre incentivized to hold. But if the price starts falling that incentive diminishes and if it turns into a loss becomes an incentive to sell. Could contribute to momentum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743078557356536257)  2024-01-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ETHE still trades at a 11% discount to NAV and Ethereum ETFs are probably coming in a few months. Long ETHE vs short crypto stocks seems interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1745544411855913230)  2024-01-11T20:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@christopherhuff Eth could be chased into the ETF launch like BTC was. that could be substantial upside on top of NAV convergence. I'm more biased toward the short side but you can also tilt toward the side you like more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1745640426785083407)  2024-01-12T02:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@fcfyplusg Why not long one of the new BTC ETFs BITO loses a little to contango over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1745928799714218475)  2024-01-12T22:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thread about GBTC premium trade. Back then I thought people were just printing risk-free with the premium where it was - of course they'd have good hedges to lock in the profits no way they could believe the 30% premium would definitely persist for a year. 1/ I lost -$700k in a single trade. and I was lucky. In [----] it was known as the Widowmaker Trade. The single reason for all the blowups (3AC Blockfi Silvergate FTX). I even sent an email & had a call about the systemic risk but the market was pumping so who cared Me https://t.co/8PfCWQe3W7 1/ I lost -$700k in a single trade. and I was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1746547012281991171)  2024-01-14T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stock_whisperer Doesn't look like there was one. I thought there would be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1746554480345137503)  2024-01-14T15:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Good post on China. Sentiment is terrible but investors are still largely viewing China through a traditional investment lens. If there's to be a permanent shift sentiment is still too sanguine. Many longs are betting on US-China relations turnaround w/o truly believing it. The Problem with China https://t.co/gpHebBVyDR The Problem with China https://t.co/gpHebBVyDR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1748409282129739847)  2024-01-19T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I wonder how many have a Taiwan invasion at 0% chance and also had the Ukraine invasion at 0%. And Ukraine at 0% would've been way more justifiable because nothing like that had happened in a very long time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1748411640431702468)  2024-01-19T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@garyHeff Regime change zeroed both Russian and Chinese markets early/mid 20th century. Russian co's still exist but effectively zeroed again for US owners [--] years ago. US declaring illegal to own and ETF/ADRs liquidating holdings at pennies. VIE illegality enforced Lots of ways to zero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1748418689802571908)  2024-01-19T18:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Confession: I was fighting the market going up then I talked myself into buying some calls bc they were a cheap hedge. Once I started making money my bearishness gradually faded away. Happened last year in [----] and other times. Flipping is hard. Not above tricking myself to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1748565654330806303)  2024-01-20T04:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@hump_bear Much harder to flip and own it than maintain status quo. Traders emphasize this flexibility/humility much more than economists/analysts - cut your losers is trading rule #1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1748589484109648245)  2024-01-20T06:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@M1tchRosenthal For example TQQQ can be a winner because markets have long enough periods of low vol uptrends. In contrast SQQQ is either trending lower or losing a lot to vol decay when the market is falling and volatile. Short SQQQ + long QQQ puts I think works. I wouldn't short TQQQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1748762070726615149)  2024-01-20T17:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Lot of ways for things to go bad. Everything gets thrown out the window if there is conflict. Historically Chinese stocks have done very poorly even if you throw out the -100% drawdown since they generally don't care about shareholders. @garyHeff Regime change zeroed both Russian and Chinese markets early/mid 20th century. Russian co's still exist but effectively zeroed again for US owners [--] years ago. US declaring illegal to own and ETF/ADRs liquidating holdings at pennies. VIE illegality enforced Lots of ways to zero. @garyHeff Regime change zeroed both Russian and Chinese"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1750941429130543217)  2024-01-26T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid -Growth prospects fading -Deteriorating balance sheet -Bad governance w/ entrenched leadership -Hostility toward shareholders -Low optical multiple Am I talking about China or a value trap stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1752055288931189204)  2024-01-29T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Did it ever work for these people No. It never does. I mean these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might. But. it might work for us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1753796800417247322)  2024-02-03T15:05Z [----] followers, 24.4K engagements


"@blondesnmoney Spot VIX is also flat from a decade ago. The futures term structure is everything. Just fascinating that these are such consistent losers over decades and yet people are still drawn to them. Ones like IWM/QQQ will probably turn eventually but the lost years are unrecoverable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1753967021757202611)  2024-02-04T02:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@vixologist @prpl8 @OptionPit I think there's a more "direct" arb which is if people are bidding SPX calls pushing SPX vol up then arbs can sell SPX options and buy VX to capture the spread SPX vol and VX futures should trade in line as I understand it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754158555387580503)  2024-02-04T15:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JJD_Aqua @michaelxpettis Debts owed between banks could be flattened to your point. But the main problem is that assets are backed by real estate which is down across the country so no diversification benefit there. Debts need to be flattened across the whole economy i.e. losses allocated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754161188596809821)  2024-02-04T15:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JJD_Aqua @michaelxpettis Real estate is down because it was overvalued in a bubble and that has popped. The banks being insolvent is more of an effect than a cause. Just my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754173014789267920)  2024-02-04T16:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Consensus opinion is still that $NVDA is the poster child of a wild and unjustifiable bubble. It's not really a bubble if we are still debating earnings multiples. It's funny seeing people say $NVDA is in a massive bubble at 35x sales not realizing they are probably trading at like 35x forward earnings. https://t.co/kp8gEepl6M It's funny seeing people say $NVDA is in a massive bubble at 35x sales not realizing they are probably trading at like 35x forward earnings. https://t.co/kp8gEepl6M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754176250929721580)  2024-02-04T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TSP net-net at 10% of cash. Extremely hairy but I know you degens are into that. Is the cash still in the US Delisting/going dark on 2/8 Suspected espionage Nvidia chips shipment intercepted by US govt Really really temped to dive head first into the dumpster fire that is $TSP. Because I love getting #valuetrapped Thoughts: 1/ buying at 10% of net cash 😳 2/ the cash is real Company raised $1bn in an IPO in [----] (remember the good old days🎉🎉🎉) 3/ they burned 1.8bn 🔥 https://t.co/o79aMdHE4A Really really temped to dive head first into the dumpster fire that is $TSP. Because I love getting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754518237809623087)  2024-02-05T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Equity market cap looking a little dicey now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754605385061720313)  2024-02-05T20:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A few years ago the CCP ever allowing China's RE bubble to pop (let alone popping it themselves) was a fringe idea. Evergrande was TBTF. Now after years of negotiations offshore bondholders are about to get zeroed out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1755646152832143370)  2024-02-08T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@briangobosox Trying to think of the trade-offs of possible paths forward. Seems like the risk of ripping the band-aid off quickly is that a deval could be chaotic and they could lose control which may be unacceptable to the CCP. Alternative is spending years stuck in a debt-deflation morass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756361217092833561)  2024-02-10T16:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@briangobosox If HH assets are bad they've been way overspending relative to true wealth. Realization of this is causing readjustment of spending downwards. Can mark down fake wealth/GDP externally w/ RMB deval or internally w/ deflation. Or keep fake marks but show no growth for years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756379363698721118)  2024-02-10T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Sg423Sg @BluthCapital @profplum99 @EricBalchunas The idea is that if you buy 1% of a $1T market cap company it will have more price impact than if you buy 1% of a $100B market cap co. (The stock will have a larger % gain.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756765093918830772)  2024-02-11T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I've found if I start worrying about a position usually better off closing it. Maybe worries are unfounded - skill issue. But it's an early warning sign. Chances are many others are in the same boat your worries will worsen and you'll get shaken out later at a worse price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1758173452945575992)  2024-02-15T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@YetAnotherValue $SIRI borrow cost is 40% so if you assume it's fairly valued now the stock price should fall by the amount longs can earn by lending out stock $1 by Q3. So the spread for $LSXMK is like 6% after you subtract that. It's not bad annualized but not as eye popping"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1758886173852741712)  2024-02-17T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@YetAnotherValue But a lot of longs don't earn the full borrow cost so if you're already long $SIRI it's a no-brainer to swap into $LSXMK so in that case it's a fat arb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1758889406713286843)  2024-02-17T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid @blueoutliercap @TheLongHappy MMs and option buyers can both win bc they aren't playing the same game. MMs are hedging exposure daily whereas you let them ride. Drift over months/years is how you profit but where the stock goes over that timeframe is irrelevant to MMs if it doesn't gap there suddenly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1759997004938137691)  2024-02-20T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid @blueoutliercap @TheLongHappy I see it as outsourcing risk management to someone with better infrastructure massively diversified balance sheet better access to borrow/financing algos and traders that can watch every stock all day. MMs are paid for performing a service and it's well worth it to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1760005345215119365)  2024-02-20T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"At some point enough boomers retire that they turn into net sellers. Market is gonna get bumpy if this line starts going down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1760357863589900722)  2024-02-21T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @EdwardOThorp My thinking is people are excited about the halvening and willing to pay up for leverage in crypto right now. Futures gives you leverage and the contango is the cost. So this kind of trade is like loaning out your balance sheet. Get paid for providing a service that's in demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1761526605648679337)  2024-02-24T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @Biohazard3737 @NYYTKM And they are so diversified. You'd basically be shorting a slice of the US economy at reasonable valuations. I would at least want a funding short to be in secular stagnation/decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1761562738768110030)  2024-02-25T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A generation of investors was indoctrinated into believing bad is good ugly is beautiful and obvious is obviously wrong. Then along come the know-nothing investors who not knowing any better buy the most obvious winners and outperform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1762870108999868637)  2024-02-28T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We could find out if $SMCI gets added to the S&P [---] tonight. Options at 90% IV vs 110%-160% historical give a free look IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1763613034038063507)  2024-03-01T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Got a free look and liked what we saw. $SMCI calls could double based on the AH move. $DECK calls were even cheaper. The timing was known. seems inefficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1763941587267015063)  2024-03-02T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SMCI and $DECK were the top two holdings of the S&P Midcap [---]. I'm not sure what goes into the decision of index additions but it seems pretty straightforward this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1763956123592212841)  2024-03-02T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@calvinfroedge Hot inflation - high rates for longer. High rates benefit cash-rich companies and harm indebted companies. Big tech have net cash. Small caps have shorter maturity debt than large caps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1767612453553132008)  2024-03-12T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Evergrande first defaulted in [----] and it took until now for the bezzel to come to light. I havent seen anything yet to convince me that Chinas RE/financial sector isnt one giant ponzi. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/china-accuses-evergrande-of-78-billion-fraud-among-worst-ever https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/china-accuses-evergrande-of-78-billion-fraud-among-worst-ever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1770225323474399236)  2024-03-19T23:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stockspinoffss They emerged from BK a while ago why didn't the indexes buy earlier Is there something about having preferred shares that prevents that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1770416808136245536)  2024-03-20T11:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm a novice at currencies so maybe I'm missing something but Yen puts look interesting. Spot JPY/USD is [------] so Mar [--] [-----] puts for [--------] make 55% if JPY is unch in a year. Contango due to carry. Good news/bad price reaction to BOJ hike. Chart looks like make or break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1772657522215698853)  2024-03-26T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Could go the way of the Russian market. Assets are still valuable but citizens of an enemy state will have no claims on them. Rule of law and shareholder rights were never strong to begin with. @prpl8 Chinese stock value = discounted value of dividends * years until an invasion of Taiwan. For some this is a very large number for others it's like [--]. @prpl8 Chinese stock value = discounted value of dividends * years until an invasion of Taiwan. For some this is a very large number for others it's like 4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1772839393964773543)  2024-03-27T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@abcampbell Say a bank never recognizes losses. But their cash flow dries up so they can't pay their own debts. So their lenders extend/pretend. Repeat. Eventually zombification of banking sector. Bad debts hog the b/s and prevent new lending effectively causing credit contraction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1774144219365445946)  2024-03-30T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Extremely leveraged long/short portfolios are in vogue right now (e.g. pod shops). They rely heavily on stops to manage risk. Could the failure mode be rogue wave short squeezes where things just gap up hundreds of percent in a single day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549527828644339)  2024-04-03T15:42Z [----] followers, 90.3K engagements


"@orrdavid Where there is high leverage there is latent volatility. whether it is on the company's balance sheet or the option chain or the trader's position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1775556443430617140)  2024-04-03T16:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @orrdavid Of course they're measuring and hedging every known risk factor. Then this leads even more confidence and more leverage. The smartest guys in the room believing they've tamed risk but then something that's never happened before happening is a tale as old as time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1775560464979632590)  2024-04-03T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yet another Shannon's Demon musings thread. Imagine a stock that has a 50/50 chance to gain 100% or fall 60% every day. Long term buy and hold will almost guarantee a total loss. But buying for one day is an incredibly good trade: (100-60)/2 = 20% expected return. 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1776651712448573624)  2024-04-06T16:42Z [----] followers, 60.8K engagements


"How many China investors know Alipay/Ant was stolen from Alibaba VIE investors It was @MarkGutman9 who opened my eyes regarding the REAL risks of investing on Chinese companies at @KYRRadio's excellent podcast (the risk being you don't own the actual company but a VIE). And what's a VIE This MUST-READ article explains it. https://t.co/z1TgvmgAsp It was @MarkGutman9 who opened my eyes regarding the REAL risks of investing on Chinese companies at @KYRRadio's excellent podcast (the risk being you don't own the actual company but a VIE). And what's a VIE This MUST-READ article explains it."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1777747744674734566)  2024-04-09T17:17Z [----] followers, 45.9K engagements


"@atelicinvest @mithridatistcap @RyeNotBerben Far from a single example. Just especially notable since the theft was perpetrated by the most high profile Chinese founder/company. How many frauds have come out of China Western investors haven't made money in Chinese stocks for how long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1777756250047967487)  2024-04-09T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Sparticuszorro Be dumb and get sucked in early seems to be the play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1778582191640814046)  2024-04-12T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@digitalturtle_ In practice things aren't as volatile and correlation isn't as low/reliable so the geometric return matters more on a longer timeframe. But there's been a decent bonus from SD for the classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio and even more true if you threw in gold BTC etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1778752840355242182)  2024-04-12T11:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The problem with black box strategies is that every strategy has drawdowns and during drawdowns investors have less conviction in things they don't understand. And behind every algo is a human that decides when to pull the plug"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1779507720283971711)  2024-04-14T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@atelicinvest It's a shame that some legendary investors said things that turned people's brains off when it came to diversification"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1781417379366334972)  2024-04-19T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Maybe markets aren't broken and fundamentals still matter https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cny-equity-valuation-theories/ https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cny-equity-valuation-theories/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1782435245557428651)  2024-04-22T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Sharpe ratio is underrated imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1782845375717470534)  2024-04-23T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Tinfoil hat theory. Does US want a big CNH deval JPY decline helps. -Geopolitical win. China loses purchasing power for commodities it's stockpiling/for military buildup. -Export deflation to ROW maybe desired at this point. -Deflation opens door for Fed cuts before election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1784244472647135237)  2024-04-27T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QT_Machine Yeah that's right but if interest rates go to zero you're probably happy you have BOXX instead of most other things"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1785679773865238544)  2024-05-01T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Seriously why does one feel compelled to rogue trade in an ETF like this How hard is it to keep your head down and gather assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1786456865162842305)  2024-05-03T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@abcampbell Maybe this suggests the Ukraine war will have a resolution before they move on Taiwan Since I doubt Russia wants to fight in both places at once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787121922154582274)  2024-05-05T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Does this suggest the war in Ukraine will have a resolution before any potential Taiwan invasion Since I doubt Russia wants to fight in both places at once. US intelligence officials assess that Russia and China are working more closely together on military issues including a potential invasion of Taiwan. https://t.co/ABcZjX1JF2 via @bpolitics US intelligence officials assess that Russia and China are working more closely together on military issues including a potential invasion of Taiwan. https://t.co/ABcZjX1JF2 via @bpolitics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787124827305718038)  2024-05-05T14:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves A few more ideas Fund redemptions Leveraged ETFs Futures rollers like VXX UNG Index funds on addition/deletion CTA/vol control funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787828148681199882)  2024-05-07T12:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"No such thing as septuple tops $PM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787925574842769637)  2024-05-07T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@KevinLMak @MikeTsangaris Can I ask which broker allows you to execute it I know some are allowed to trade expert market stocks but haven't been able to find out how"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1789652898416050600)  2024-05-12T13:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@OptionAlpha3 @DeepDishEnjoyer Maybe just sell GME far otm puts and buy some IWM puts cause if GME fell 90% something terrible probably happened to the whole market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1790219846073950570)  2024-05-14T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FFIE [----] puts expiring on Friday is [----] bid while stock is [----] right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1790807609231946004)  2024-05-15T18:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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