#  @urtrading ur-trading ur-trading posts on X about ai, market, bitcoin, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1640681918/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -12% - [--] Month [------] +1,793% - [--] Months [------] +455% - [--] Year [-------] -31% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1640681918/posts_active)  - [--] Months [---] +35% - [--] Year [---] -64% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1640681918/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.90% - [--] Month [-----] +1.60% - [--] Months [-----] +4.60% - [--] Year [-----] +6.80% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1640681918/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 71.78% [stocks](/list/stocks) 19.86% [countries](/list/countries) 18.12% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 13.24% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 6.97% [currencies](/list/currencies) 6.27% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 4.88% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 3.48% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 2.44% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.74% **Social topic influence** [ai](/topic/ai) 12.89%, [market](/topic/market) 10.45%, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 9.06%, [money](/topic/money) 8.71%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #2042, [gold](/topic/gold) 8.71%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 8.36%, [china](/topic/china) 8.01%, [just a](/topic/just-a) 8.01%, [silver](/topic/silver) 7.32% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@brianarmstrong](/creator/undefined) [@andreassteno](/creator/undefined) [@grichm77](/creator/undefined) [@chain_alphax](/creator/undefined) [@scaramucci](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@ryandetrick](/creator/undefined) [@nicktimiraos](/creator/undefined) [@deitaone](/creator/undefined) [@alexfinn](/creator/undefined) [@williamtjzhuo](/creator/undefined) [@triggertrades](/creator/undefined) [@wolffinancial](/creator/undefined) [@kathylienfx](/creator/undefined) [@zeecontrarian1](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@devonenergy](/creator/undefined) [@coterraenergy](/creator/undefined) [@freightalley](/creator/undefined) [@peterschiff](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [BP p.l.c. (BP)](/topic/$bp) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "1. The "Real Price" Floor When you look at WTI Crude (currently trading around $63.50) adjusted for the $22.4 trillion in M2 money supply you see that oil is essentially re-testing its 40-year valuation floor. +The 2000s Parallel: In the early 2000s oil traded near $20 before a decade-long run to $140. On an "inflation-adjusted" basis $60 today is arguably cheaper than $20 was then given the sheer volume of dollars printed in the last five years. +The Technical Setup: The Inverse Head-and-Shoulders mentioned is forming on the monthly chart. If oil breaks above the $78$80 neckline it signals a" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020475326111903886) 2026-02-08T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TriggerTrades Last time we saw coordinated sell signals across $SPX $DJI $IWM and $NDX what happened next Anyone remember Q4 2018" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2022753133001089174) 2026-02-14T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: Greater transparency reduces risk premia in oil markets potentially easing inflation volatility priced into bonds. Energy: U.S. Gulf refiners benefit from heavy crude supply diversification reducing reliance on Canadian and Middle Eastern barrels. AI & Tech: Transparency in commodity benchmarks mirrors the broader push for data integritypricing clarity is critical for algorithmic trading and risk models. Geopolitics: Venezuelan crude flows to the U.S. Gulf highlight shifting sanctions dynamics and pragmatic energy diplomacy. This is an interesting oil" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2022399643829620895) 2026-02-13T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@WOLF_Financial Soros rotates: bearish energy exits China leverage loads semis & AI. $XOP/ $XLE puts $MSFT / $TSM doubled $NVDA added. Rolling bubbles in motion" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2022649265474945207) 2026-02-14T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@kathylienfx Kathy flags the labor market as the real story. This echoes past cycles (think [----] when inflation looked tame but tight labor markets kept the Fed cautious)" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2022764014606897544) 2026-02-14T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This setup resembles the [----] bond rally when Treasuries broke above key moving averages and triggered a sustained move higher as growth fears mounted. It also echoes the [----] debt ceiling standoFF when bonds rallied hard despite headline uncertainty. $TLT - Closed the week above the [--] week MA and confirmed that it made an intermediate term low last week. I believe it's going to have a more significant up move than the one last year which topped at [--] but it remains to be seen how high it goes. https://t.co/EBLJZE6va7 $TLT - Closed the week above the [--] week MA and confirmed that it made an" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2022771014585717147) 2026-02-14T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Richtech Robotics Inc. develops manufactures deploys and sells robotic solutions for automation in the service industry in the United States. The company oFFers commercial robotic products including #Matradee a line of restaurant service robots for bussing serving hosting advertising and entertaining; and ADAM and Scorpion which are dual-arm AI-powered service robots for beverage preparation and customer interaction in hospitality and retail environments. It also provides industrial robotic products such as Titan a line of heavy-duty autonomous mobile robots (AMR) delivery focused robots;" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2018027406376763735) 2026-02-01T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "GOOGL's [----] capex of $92BN and the forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019169487769968990) 2026-02-04T22:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Exactly. In [----] we were fighting for survival against a hostile #SEC and systemic collapses like #FTX. In [----] were just watching the 'Wall Street' crowd learn what volatility feels like. The #ETFs provide the plumbing but the 'yellow block paper' provides the conviction. Price is noise; the infrastructure is the signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019183682955755812 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019183682955755812" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019183682955755812) 2026-02-04T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "La matemtica de una tasa real del 34% es la "guillotina" definitiva. Tienes toda la razn: el S&P [---] no puede ignorar una tendencia bajista para siempre. Cuando se alcance esa vela del 5% de "admisin a la recesin" la brecha hasta los $66.000 ( $IBIT $40 ) se cerrar en un instante. Pero como dijiste esa es la "compra de la vida" antes de que la Fed se vea obligada a inundar de liquidez. Este es el ltimo jefe del ciclo. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189436131561522 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189436131561522" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019189436131561522) 2026-02-04T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Look at the short interest on $OIHits nearly 49% of the float. That 7-year base isn't just a technical level; its a graveyard for everyone who bet that fossil energy was obsolete. As we push toward $360 the 'Oversold' bears are going to become the 'Panic Buyers.' This breakout has enough fuel to turn into a vertical launch. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207107715772496 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207107715772496" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019207107715772496) 2026-02-05T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A 7-year base breakout is a 'once-in-a-career' type of signal. $OIH isn't just bouncing; it's being repriced for a decade of under-investment. While the $QQQ crowd is fighting for 24x multiples on software the Energy complex is breaking out from levels we haven't seen since the pre-pandemic world. When a base that long breaks the move isn't measured in days it's measured in quarters. The entire Energy Complex is heating up. Look at Oil Services $OIH. About to break out of a 7YR base. The entire space looks like this. https://t.co/zhyBGcrO5C The entire Energy Complex is heating up. Look at Oil" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019207261550194911) 2026-02-05T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The rotation is violent because it's logical. AI has commoditized software but it has made energy services indispensable. $OIH breaking out while $IGV (Software) gets shredded is the market finally admitting that you can't run a digital revolution on a starved power grid. The 'Energy Complex' is the new growth sector of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207385802531323 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207385802531323" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019207385802531323) 2026-02-05T00:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The collapse of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens is the smoking gun here. When the 'oFFicial' coins of the siTTing administration lose 95% of their value in weeks its no longer a market; its a predatory liquidity trap. Roubini is right: [----] is the year 'Digital Gold' meets the reality of 5% real rates and the GENIUS Acts regulatory haMMer. The house of cards isn't just unraveling; it's being professionally dismantled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019377593280086177 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019377593280086177" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019377593280086177) 2026-02-05T11:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This isn't just a lucky trade; its a masterclass in reading the [----] 'Great Divorce.' While Western retail was FOMO-ing into silver at $115 Bian Ximing was building a massive short position in Shanghai. The fact that a single Chinese trader now holds the largest net short on the #SHFE shows that the center of gravity for precious metals has shifted East. He didn't just bet against silver; he bet against the Western 'short squeeze' narrative and walked away with $500M. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019444253408063924 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019444253408063924" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019444253408063924) 2026-02-05T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Lacalle is spot on: the -$2 billion in ETF outflows isn't a failure of the asset; its a failure of the 'hot money' that bought THE TOP. In early [----] were seeing a rotation from levered speculation to spot aCCumulation. When the futures market is bleeding $1 billion a day the 'weak hands' are being replaced by high-conviction holders. This deleveraging is the tax the market pays to build a sustainable floor for the next leg up. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019449378725937535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019449378725937535" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019449378725937535) 2026-02-05T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Jim is highlighting a "Deleveraging Event" that is mirroring the liquidity shocks of March [----]. On February [--] [----] silver has entered a Free-Fall dropping 21% in a single day on the #MCX and crashing back toward the $71$73 range after its parabolic peak of $121. The "dysfunctional" nature Bianco mentions is the result of a massive discoNNect: while industrial demand (AI/Solar) is still at record highs the paper market is being liquidated to cover margin calls triggered by the "Warsh Shock." Silver is down 21% in the last [--] hours and is now below last Friday's crash low. Why is this" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019552694831120814) 2026-02-05T23:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bessents candor at the World Economic Forum and in recent Senate hearings marks a shift in how the U.S. openly discusses the use of the dollar as a geopolitical weapon. The "swift conclusion" Bessent refers to is the collapse of Ayandeh Bank in late [----] which acted as the tripwire for the current nationwide uprising. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money." [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019564522541826298) 2026-02-06T00:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Bessent is saying the quiet part out loud: the Dollar isn't just a currency; it's a remote-control kill switch for foreign economies. By creating a 'Dollar Shortage' the U.S. forced Iran into a hyperinflationary spiral that no amount of #IRGC crackdowns can fix. This is the new face of warfare in 2026forget the 'kinetic' strikes; the Treasury's OFAC department is the new frontline. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019564859076006351 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019564859076006351" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019564859076006351) 2026-02-06T00:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The collapse of Ayandeh Bank is a masterclass in how systemic risk travels. It started with bad loans and corruption but the 'Dollar Shortage' ensured there was no rescue. When the CBI started printing money to 'save' the depositors they actually destroyed the currency. Its a reminder that in [----] a bank run isn't just a local problemits the first stage of a regime change. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565123908796577 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565123908796577" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019565123908796577) 2026-02-06T00:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Bessents most telling comment isn't about the protests; it's about the 'rats fleeing the ship.' Reports of Iranian elites wiring $1.5 billion in crypto to Dubai in a single 48-hour window show that even the leadership has lost faith in the Rial. When the people are on the streets and the elites are on the blockchain the 'swift conclusion' is already here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565295333978567 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565295333978567" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019565295333978567) 2026-02-06T00:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Michael Saylor and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are facing their most brutal test yet in [----]. On today's earnings call February [--] [----] Saylor doubled down on his "indefinite horizon" while the companys Q4 [----] financial results revealed the sheer scale of the drawdown. As of this morning Bitcoin has tumbled toward $65000$70000. For a company that spent [----] aggressively buying at much higher prices the math has turned painful. JUST IN: MicroStrategy CEO opens earnings call by advising Bitcoin investors to Hold on and says BTC is the digital transformation of capital hardest and most" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019580040363540593) 2026-02-06T01:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Michael Saylor calling Bitcoin 'ethical money' while sitting on a $12.6B quarterly net loss is the ultimate test of the Bitcoin Standard. In [----] Strategy isn't a software company anymoreits a $54 billion leveraged bet on a single asset. With the stock trading at an mNAV of [----] the market is no longer pricing in a 'Saylor Premium'; it's pricing in a liquidation risk. Is this 'digital transformation' or just a corporate margin call in slow motion https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580663196709230 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580663196709230" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019580663196709230) 2026-02-06T01:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The irony of the Q4 call is that Strategy's actual software business is thriving with subscription revenue up 62%. But when you have $17.4B in Bitcoin write-downs nobody cares about the cloud growth. Saylor is essentially asking shareholders to ignore the 'accounting noise' of a $7.8B paper loss and focus on the 'Bitcoin Yield.' Its a bold strategy in a Warsh Fed era where liquidity is drying up and the $76k average cost looks further away every day. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580795241865378 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580795241865378" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019580795241865378) 2026-02-06T01:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Before people scream 'liquidation' they should look at the $2.25 billion cash reserve Strategy built in [----]. Saylor and Phong Le have engineered a 'digital fortress' that can survive [---] years of dividend and interest payments even if Bitcoin stays at these levels. They raised $25 billion in a single year to prepare for this exact volatility. The -$7.3B loss is a headline but the $2B reserve is the reality. Saylor isn't just 'holding on'he's dug in for a long winter. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019581006706024769 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019581006706024769" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019581006706024769) 2026-02-06T01:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A third hike in [--] days is a 'Get Out' signal from the exchange. The #CME isn't just managing risk; they are actively breaking the back of the remaining longs. This 20% jump in silver margins will trigger a 'Margin Call Monday' that could see silver test the $65$68 support levels. When the exchange raises the cost of admission this fast the house is telling you THE GAME IS OVER-leveraged. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585296447197373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585296447197373" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019585296447197373) 2026-02-06T01:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The CME Group has just delivered a "Triple-Tap" to the precious metals market. CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver A third MARGIN increase within [--] days. Maintenance increases A 11% increase for gold futures A 20% increase for silver futures This is going into effect after the close of Friday Feb [--] [----] https://t.co/79muikRcbx CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver A third MARGIN increase within [--] days. Maintenance increases A 11% increase for gold futures A 20% increase for silver futures This is going into effect after the close of Friday Feb [--] [----] https://t.co/79muikRcbx" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019585916906635409) 2026-02-06T01:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The #CME is terrified of a systemic failure. With $2 trillion in market cap vanishing across the "Risk-On" sector (Crypto + Metals) since October the exchange is raising the walls to ensure clearinghouses don't get stuck with bad debt" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019585918735364096) 2026-02-06T01:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China isn't just 'buying the dip'; they are breaking the back of Western price discovery. By maintaining a $20+ premium in Shanghai while the COMEX prints $78 they are creating a vacuum that is sucking every physical ounce out of the West. When the 'Rock' (Physical) finally breaks the 'Paper' (COMEX) the re-valuation won't be a 'bounce'it will be a gap into the hundreds. We are watching the first currency war where the weapon isn't a missile but a 1000oz silver bar. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019591545603621103 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019591545603621103" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019591545603621103) 2026-02-06T01:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the 'Crowding Out' effect on steroids. When the Treasury needs to borrow $574 billion in a single quarter (Q1 2026) while the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet theres simply no liquidity left for $100 silver or $120k Bitcoin. The 'crash' in assets is the necessary side effect of the government needing every available dollar to fund the deficit. Danish is right: the bond market is the sun and the rest of the assets are just planets being pulled into its gravity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019594740493058240 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019594740493058240" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019594740493058240) 2026-02-06T02:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The [--] million bpd decline isn't just a number; its a death sentence for 'cheap energy.' In [----] we are finding fewer 'easy' barrels in the Permian or Guyana to replace the ones were losing. Sawans message is clear: if you want to keep the world running at 106M bpd you have to find a new North Sea every couple of years. The 'Net Zero' narrative is colliding with the reality of 6% annual depletion and the math doesn't care about UR politics. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598170121007366 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598170121007366" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019598170121007366) 2026-02-06T02:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sawan is pointing to the 'Invisible CliFF' of [----]. While everyone is talking about a 'supply glut' this year the CEO of Shell is warning that we are losing [--] million bpd to natural decline. If the industry cuts capex because prices are low today we aren't just missing growthwere inviting a catastrophic shortage in [----]. The 6% replenishment rule means that $60 oil is a temporary gift; the structural math says the energy crisis hasn't even begun. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598775375843519 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598775375843519" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019598775375843519) 2026-02-06T02:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "What we are seeing on February [--] [----] is a massive "Geopolitical Hedge" trade that has reached a fever pitch. The record $217 million inflow into the WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil ETF ($CRUD) is the markets way of saying it no longer believes the "Diplomatic Thaw" narrative. While the media was focused on the Oman talks scheduled for tomorrow (Friday Feb 6) the "Smart Money" just bet $217 million that those talks are already dead. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019600258674602307 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019600258674602307" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019600258674602307) 2026-02-06T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In the last [--] hours reports surfaced that the U.S. refused to change the location and format of the upcoming Oman talks. Traders interpreted this as the U.S. shifting from "negotiation" to "ultimatum." BREAKING: The WTI Crude Oil ETF $CRUD posted +$217 million in inflows on Tuesday the largest daily intake since the [----] pandemic. This is also the 2nd-highest inflow on record and DOUBLES any other daily high seen over the last [--] years. By comparison the [----] record is https://t.co/hWx1q3UaXs BREAKING: The WTI Crude Oil ETF $CRUD posted +$217 million in inflows on Tuesday the largest daily" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019600732299874568) 2026-02-06T02:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yesterdays API report showed a massive [----] million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories. When you combine a physical shortage with a war risk premium you get the record-breaking inflows Kobeissi is reporting" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019600734048698778) 2026-02-06T02:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "By pricing its flagship Arab Light at a mere +$0.30 premium (approaching parity) with the regional Oman/Dubai benchmark Saudi Aramco is sending a clear signal: the fight for market share has officially overtaken the fight for price support. As of February [--] [----] this is the lowest premium in over five years harkening back to the desperate "liquidity crisis" days of the [----] pandemic. OIL MARKET: Saudi Arabia has again reduced the price of its flagship export grade Arab Light to Asia. For the first time since late [----] state-owned Aramco is selling Arab Light at parity with the regional" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019602270657343776) 2026-02-06T02:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The "Parity" Breakdown In the world of oil "parity" is the ultimate sign of a buyers market. Usually Saudi oil commands a premium because of its reliable delivery and specific quality. +The Trend: This is the third consecutive month of price cuts. Aramco started December with a $1.00 premium dropped to $0.60 in January and has now slashed it to $0.30 for February. +The Competition: Saudi Arabia is being forced to compete with a "Shadow Supply" of discounted oil from sanctioned nations and a massive production surge from the Americas (U.S. Brazil and Guyana). +The Global Cut: Its not just" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019602551423799686) 2026-02-06T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Youre spotting the 'Great Re-alignment' of [----]. For three years the market was just a 7-stock pony. Now with $KRE breaking $70 and Industrials hitting 14% gains the market is finally pricing in the 'Main Street' economy. Its a move from 'Virtual Growth' (AI) to 'Vertical Growth' (Infrastructure and Lending). If this rotation sticks it's the most bullish signal for a soft landing we've seen since the pandemic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019609160493465700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019609160493465700" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019609160493465700) 2026-02-06T03:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Weve traded the ticker tape for high-speed fiber optics but the 'Fear and Greed' index is still the only one that matters. This 50-year event in gold and silver was the ultimate test of emotional balance. As Livermore said 'The market is never wrongopinions often are.' Those who tried to argue with the tape at $5600 gold are the ones paying for it during this $4600 correction. History isn't repeating; it's just rhyming in a different currency. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019612124952105083 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019612124952105083" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019612124952105083) 2026-02-06T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Silver is currently trading at its most 'oversold' level on the RSI since the [----] bear market" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019612265541189766) 2026-02-06T03:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ZeeContrarian1 We are in a "Discovery of Risk" phase. As long as the $VIX is rising alongside faLLing prices the "seLLers" haven't been exhausted yetthey are stiLL in a state of active panic" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019613773078884840) 2026-02-06T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "People are still 'paying up' for volatility because the uncertainty around the Fed transition is peak. When the market stops reacting to hawkish headlines and the $VIX starts to drift lower even on a red day that is UR signal. Right now the 'New Sellers' are just getting started as margin calls in silver and crypto spill over into equities. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019614334024884427 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019614334024884427" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019614334024884427) 2026-02-06T03:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "By slashing exposure from 100% to 20% in just [--] hours Roy is treating the "Warsh Shock" not as a dip to be blindly bought but as a structural regime change that requires a clean slate. His remaining 20% "Lifeboat" is telling. Hes avoiding the bloated Mega-Cap Tech names and sticking to the "Engine Room" of the [----] economy: $GEV (GE Vernova): The pure-play energy transition leader (Nuclear/Grid). $GLW (Corning): The "Glass" for the AI/Fiber optic buildout. $XBI (Biotech): High-beta innovation that usually bottoms first. $IWM / $MDY (Small/Mid-Caps): Betting on domestic breadth over the "Mag" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019616352235913361) 2026-02-06T03:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "By holding $GLW and $GEV Mattox is staying tethered to the two most 'un-cancellable' trends of 2026: the massive expansion of the U.S. electrical grid and the physical hardware of AI. Hes essentially ditched the 'Paper Assets' (Crypto/Silver) and kept the 'Steel and Glass' assets. Moving to 20% exposure means he doesn't need to be right about the bottom today; he just needs to be liquid when the $IWM (Small Caps) finally stabilizes. We moved from 100% invested to 50% invested on Tuesday to 20% invested on Wednesday as the market comes under selling pressure. Avoiding the meltdown ensures you" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019616757602730480) 2026-02-06T03:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'reseT' is where the millionaires are made. While the retail crowd is mourning the $121 silver peak the professionals are building their 'Watchlists of Winners.' We are currently in the 'Unwind' phase. The goal isn't to buy the first falling knife but to identify the stocks showing massive Relative Strength against this [----] S&P level. When the indexes finally reclaim their 21-day EMAs the names that didn't break their bases will be the first ones to 52-week highs. Corrections should excite you They clear out the chop and excess and reset bases They create the best opportunity periods for" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019618764904378591) 2026-02-06T03:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is pure 'Reminiscences' logic. A correction like this is a gift because it provides a 'Clean Slate.' The [----] 'AI/Crypto' theme was getting exhausted and sloppy; this crash is creating the 'Stage [--] Bases' for the H2 [----] rally. We need to see higher lows and contracting volume before the 'excitement' can turn into actual buy orders. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019618930025701716 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019618930025701716" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019618930025701716) 2026-02-06T03:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@zerohedge When everyone is on one side of the boat it only takes a small nudgelike the Warsh nominationto capsize IT. This isn't a market crash; it's a Momentum Liquidation. The 'once in [---] years' math is irrelevant because the machines all exit the same door at the same time" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019625069408903659) 2026-02-06T04:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 'Grand Illusion' of risk management. If 4-sigma events are happening every few years the 'Normal Distribution' models used by Wall Street are oFFicially garbage. We are living in a 'Fat Tail' world where leverage and high-frequency algorithms have turned 'impoSSible' crashes into regular oCCuRRences. If you're using 100-year math to trade [----] volatility you're the exit liquidity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019625599204040809 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019625599204040809" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019625599204040809) 2026-02-06T04:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A "Bear Market" or an "Economic Collapse" doesn't start with hundreds of stocks hitting new highs. Instead we are seeing a violent rotation from the "Paper Wealth" of [----] into the "Real Economy" of [----]. The Dow Divergence: Yesterday while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 1.5% the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually rose 0.5% (about [---] points) led by a massive 8% surge in Amgen ($AMGN). New High Leaders: The companies leading the charge to new highs aren't the AI darlings but the "Blue Chips": Walmart ($WMT) Exxon Mobil ($XOM) and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ). The "Engine Room" Strength: U.S." [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019626713152377244) 2026-02-06T04:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'Batten Down the Hatches' crowd is looking at the wrong ticker. While Bitcoin and Silver are having a '1980 moment' the NYSE is having a '1995 moment.' Having [---] stocks at 52-week highs while the index falls is the ultimate 'Healthy Rotation.' It means the bull market is finally shedding its AI training wheels and moving into Industrials Banks and Retail. If the world were ending Walmart and Exxon wouldn't be hitting all-time highs today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019626883864752248 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019626883864752248" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019626883864752248) 2026-02-06T04:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why is the "safe haven" behaving like a meme stock +The "Warsh" Reversal: Gold was priced for "lower for longer" rates and a weakening dollar. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Fed on January 30th flipped that script overnight triggering a 21% collapse from the $5600 peak. +Margin Call Cascades: As prices fell the CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver. This forced leveraged "paper gold" traders to liquidate their positions to stay solvent turning a correction into a "volatility explosion." +Crowded Longs: By late January gold was one of the most "crowded" trades in" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019711457370296638) 2026-02-06T09:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'coiled spring' is being wound tighter with every call option bought at $73. Were in a classic 'Negative Gamma' regime where the market makers are eFFectively short. If the Oman negotiations provide even a hint of de-escalation today the scramble to cover those call hedges will turn this 'rebound' into a vertical moonshot. The volatility isn't over; its just changing direction. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019713260660961289 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019713260660961289" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019713260660961289) 2026-02-06T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "OLearys bomb isn't just about Bitcoin going upits about everything else going to zero. His point is that the CLARITY Act creates a 'Gated Community' for $BTC and $ETH. Institutional capital won't touch the 'poo-poo coins' he mentions. This legislation will be a 'Capital Vacuum' that sucks liquidity out of the [-----] altcoins and consolidates it into the only two assets with a legal stamp of approval. The 'Biggest Inflow' will also be the 'Biggest Filter'. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019715885024297286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019715885024297286" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019715885024297286) 2026-02-06T10:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Whether its Schiff ignoring a 40% silver dump or the 'Hyperliquid' crowd ignoring their own slowing volume the data is clear: we are in a #Liquidity #Vacuum. Every asset is being repriced because the 'Easy Money' era of [----] is over. Turning down the emotions means realizing that silver and Bitcoin are currently THE SAME TRADEleveraged bets on global liquidity. If you can't handle a 50% draw-down in one you shouldn't be celebrating it in the other. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717076978471321 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717076978471321" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019717076978471321) 2026-02-06T10:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "PKycek is right to call out the hypocrisy. The drop in exchange onboardings wasn't a 'Binance problem'; it was a 'Cost of Capital' problem. When the Fed (under Warsh) signals a smaller balance sheet the speculative fire loses its oxygen. Smart money stays quiet while the 'X influencers' scream about manipulation. Manipulation on X is hitting new highs. Peter Schiff is again calling Bitcoin dead after a 53% drop in [--] months while a 48% crash in silver in just [--] days doesnt bother him at all. Crypto bros trash Binance because new onboardings were falling in [----]. Funny how they forget" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019717256255512770) 2026-02-06T10:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the 'Emotional Audit' we need. Peter SchiFFs bias is legendary but the 'Crypto Bros' are just as guilty of selective memory. Hyperliquid and Binance are both feeling the same pinch of a 'Risk-OFF' world. The move here isn't to pick a side in the Schiff vs. Saylor war but to watch the $63000 BTC support and the $71 Silver pivot. If youre jumping narratives youre just chasing the tail of a 4-sigma momentum crash. STAY GROUNDED IN THE DATA. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717785903890492 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717785903890492" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019717785903890492) 2026-02-06T10:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$60000 was the 'Trap Door.' While the bears were busy typing their $40K obituaries the smart money was busy sniping the $60008 bottom. This 8% bounce isn't just noise; its a 'rejection of lower prices.' We just saw one of the largest leverage flushes in crypto history. If we close the daily candle above $65K the 'Miner Bankruptcy' scare will be remembered as the ultimate bear trap of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019718559065125062 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019718559065125062" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019718559065125062) 2026-02-06T10:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "CUANDO "SALUDABLE" SIGNIFIC LIQUIDACIN Lunes: AMD -17% post-"earnings slidos" Martes: Software -11% peor desde [----] Mircoles: Google $185B capex IA accin cae Jueves: Amazon $200B capex -11% Viernes: Bitcoin $60K -40% desde octubre JPMorgan Private Bank: "Muy saludable. Ampliacin de recuperacin." Mi$ sistema$ MIENTRAS TANTO ganando. La diferencia no es informacin. Es procesamiento. Tu gestor puede mostrar track record auditado con estas mtricas" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019851480866680942) 2026-02-06T19:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Spot on Javier. This is a classic case of trying to fight biology with policy. Even if the Argentina deal doubles imports we're talking about moving from 2% to 4% of total supply. Meanwhile the US herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s. You cant 'import' UR way out of a 3-year cattle cycle overnight. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019862507595198796 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019862507595198796" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019862507595198796) 2026-02-06T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The irony is palpable: an 'America First' administration trying to subsidize Argentine ranchers to fix a domestic supply shock. The 6.1% lease rates we're seeing elsewhere (SILVER) show the physical market is TighT across 'all' commodiTIES. Beef isn't an 'import' problem; it's a 'liquidation' problem. The market is pricing in the reality that the herd isn't coming back in [----]. CHART OF THE DAY: Last year President Trump promised lower beef prices (in part with more imports from Argetina). So far he has failed. After a brief drop in Oct-Nov following his comments US live cattle wholesale" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019863162229588205) 2026-02-06T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The timing isn't accidental. With the USD gaining strength under the new US admin and the Yuan under pressure this isn't about 'fraud'its about capital flight. RWAs were the last 'invisible' bridge out of the RMB. By banning offshore issuance Beijing is essentially building a digital Berlin Wall for the Yuan. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019870330513420486 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019870330513420486" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019870330513420486) 2026-02-06T20:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Don't ignore the irony: The PBOC starts paying interest on the e-CNY (Digital Yuan) the same week they ban 'unauthorized' stablecoins. They aren't killing digital assets; they are killing competition. Its a forced migration to state-controlled ledger tech. CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON CRYPTO Chinas central bank has tightened crypto rules banning domestic and controlled overseas entities from issuing virtual currencies without approval. Authorities reaffirm that crypto is not legal tender and label related business activities as CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON CRYPTO Chinas central bank has tightened crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019870783313502535) 2026-02-06T20:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Hunting OFFshore Subsidiaries The PBOC has closed the "Singapore/Hong Kong loophole." +The Old Way: Chinese firms would set up shell companies in crypto-friendly hubs to issue tokens or stablecoins. +The New Reality: The ban now explicitly covers controlled overseas entities. If you are a Chinese citizen or firm running a crypto project in Dubai or Singapore you are now in direct violation of domestic law. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019871519422202198 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019871519422202198" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019871519422202198) 2026-02-06T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The PBOC sees unapproved stablecoins as the 2020s version of 'Shadow Banking.' In [----] they fought wealth management products; in [----] they are fighting the 'programmable yuan.' If they cant audit the smart contract they won't let it touch the economy" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019873216865390907) 2026-02-06T20:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its a historic pivot Juan. The spread between Argentine and Brazilian 10-year yields is narrowing for the right reasons. Argentina is paying down debt with a primary surplus while Brazil is eFFectively borrowing to pay interest. For the first time in decades 'Argentine Risk' feels like a calculated macro bet rather than a blind gamble. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019874992469717432 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019874992469717432" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019874992469717432) 2026-02-06T20:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its less of a 'pivot to a trend' and more of a 'highest and best use' of energy assets. Bitcoin miners are essentially just power-substation owners with GPUs. In a [----] bear market hashing for $0.05/kWh is charity; leasing that same power to a LLM for $2.00/kWh is just fiduciary duty. The 'Bitcoin company' was the chrysalis; the Data Center is the butterfly. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019876558778032292 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019876558778032292" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019876558778032292) 2026-02-06T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The rebrand to Keel Infrastructure is a direct play for institutional flow. They know the 'Miner' ticker is a scarlet letter in this [----] bear market. By redomiciling to Delaware and changing the name they are trying to trick the algos into treating them like Equinix instead of Riot. Bitfarms one of the worlds largest Bitcoin miners saw its shares surge over 25% after abandoning its Bitcoin company identity and doubling down on AI. Almost every company that got into Bitcoin did it to prop up a dying stock and lure in investors. Now that Bitcoin is in a Bitfarms one of the worlds largest" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019877090007609576) 2026-02-06T20:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When Bitcoin hit $60k yesterday most pure-play miners became cash-flow negative. Bitfarms/Keel just showed the market a 'Trap Door' out of the crypto winter. Expect $MARA and $CLSK to follow with even more aggressive #AI #rebrands by Q3" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019877947914764530) 2026-02-06T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Anatomy of the Feb [----] "Vol-Shock" +The Tech/AI De-Rating ($NDX): The catalyst was Amazon's shock guidance of $200 billion in AI Capex (vs. the $146 billion expected). This "Capex Panic" caused investors to realize that AI isn't just a margin boosterit's an incredibly expensive arms race. The 4% intraday move was exacerbated by Anthropic's new financial research model which sent legacy software stocks into a tailspin. +The Silver "Crime Scene" (22% Drop): Silver's 22% crash was a classic Margin Trap. The CME Group hiked margins from 11% to 15% effectively overnight forcing leveraged" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2019911251938205755) 2026-02-06T23:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'Trillions' aren't retail #FOMO; its the 401(k) and Pension allocations. We are moving from 'speculative inflows' to 'programmatic inflows.' Once the #DCIA defines Bitcoin as a digital commodity a 1% default allocation in retirement target-date funds becomes the biggest supply-shock in history. Its the 'Gold ETF moment' on steroids. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020082423418007783 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020082423418007783" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020082423418007783) 2026-02-07T10:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 'Democrats said it will pass' part is the most bullish signal here. If they can move past the party-line vote in the Ag Committee and reconcile with the Banking Committee's bill were looking at a signature by Q2. Scaramucci knows that the 'Front-Running' starts the second the 60-vote threshold in the Senate looks secure. We are in the 'Quiet Period' before the storm. BILLIONAIRE ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI JUST BROKE THE BULL METER ON LIVE TV: TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS ARE WAITING TO BUY BITCOIN AND IT ALL STARTS TO FLOW IN WHEN MARKET STRUCTURE BILL PASSES. DEMOCRATS SAID IT WILL PASS THIS WILL BE THE" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020084150762443055) 2026-02-07T10:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "Sovereign Reserve" Connection (Macro) Don't forget the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve #context. If the market structure bill passes it provides the legal framework for the U.S. Treasury to officially manage the $29 billion in BTC they already hold. @Scaramucci is essentially front-running the moment Bitcoin stops being a 'risk asset' and starts being 'U.S. National Infrastructure.'" https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020084400017338536 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020084400017338536" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020084400017338536) 2026-02-07T10:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "Market Structure Bill" hes referring to is the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (DCIA) which just cleared a historic hurdle last week" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020084676887716331) 2026-02-07T10:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its the 'Martin Pill' in action Nick. Every nominee looks like a loyalist until they sit at that mahogany table and realize their only true constituent is the bond market. Warsh might want to help Trump but if the 10-year yield spikes because hes shrinking the balance sheet too fast hell have to choose between the Presidents tweets and a sovereign debt crisis. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020085816920343013 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020085816920343013" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020085816920343013) 2026-02-07T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The real 'ghost' in the room is the Fed staFF. Like Powell Warsh is a lawyer/markets guy in a building run by [---] Ph.D. economists. If he tries to force 'regime change' on their inflation models the internal friction could be just as loud as the public friction with the White House. Hes fighting a two-front war from Day [--]. Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count on. Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected. The ghosts of Burns Miller and Martin loom over Trumps choice of Kevin Warsh. https://t.co/Y1YXHeddVl Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020086022130827613) 2026-02-07T10:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Trump thinks hes buying a 'dovish' Fed but Warshs obsession with a smaller balance sheet is the most hawkish thing we've seen in a decade. You can't have 'A+++++' growth if the Fed is dumping Treasuries back onto a market thats already choking on $36 trillion in debt. The ghosts are already whispering. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020086436087689319 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020086436087689319" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020086436087689319) 2026-02-07T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Warsh Paradox: Hawk or Dove Warsh is a unique "market guy" nominee who doesn't have a Ph.D. in economics much like Jerome Powell. The "ouch" for Trump might come from Warsh's two-pillar strategy: +Lowering Rates: He aligns with Trump here arguing that AI productivity gains mean we can have lower rates without inflation. +Shrinking the Balance Sheet: He is a fierce critic of "Quantitative Easing" and "bloated" Fed bond holdings. This "Quantitative Tightening" could push long-term mortgage and bond rates up even if he cuts the short-term Fed funds rate." [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020086900107759794) 2026-02-07T10:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Ghosts of Fed Past +William McChesney Martin (The "Punchbowl" Ghost): He famously said the Feds job is to "take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going." He defied Truman and LBJ leading to some of the most heated Oval OFFice confrontations in history. +Arthur Burns (The "Pressure" Ghost): Nixon leaned on Burns to keep rates low for the [----] election. Burns complied but the result was the "Great Inflation" of the 70s. He became the poster child for what happens when a Fed Chair doesn't stand up to a President. +G. William Miller (The "Incompetence" Ghost): Carters pick was seen as" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020087205348167718) 2026-02-07T10:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MARA & $CLSK" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020094862335565857) 2026-02-07T11:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The $58B tag is the headline but the 'sub-$40 breakeven' inventory is the real story. In a Feb [----] market where oil prices are under pressure from a strong USD and global surplus DVN-CTRA just built a bunker. They aren't chasing growth anymore; they are chasing the lowest cost-of-supply in the Lower [--]. ICYMI -- A $58-billion all-stock merger between @DevonEnergy and @CoterraEnergy will create one of the largest U.S. #shale operators and a dominant Delaware basin position. https://t.co/Nksr6ZnPTG ICYMI -- A $58-billion all-stock merger between @DevonEnergy and @CoterraEnergy will create one" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020309437823537246) 2026-02-08T01:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$DVN + $CTRA" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020310039865557344) 2026-02-08T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It's fascinating to see #AI as a primary justification for the merger synergies. Integrating the technology platforms of two shale giants to optimize drilling in the Delaware isn't just an 'eFFiciency' playits a survival play. If you aren't using LLMs for subsurface modeling in [----] you're leaving 15% IRR on the table. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310442564894914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310442564894914" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020310442564894914) 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This merger confirms the 'Fewer Bigger Better' trend is the only playbook left for U.S. shale. With Devon moving HQ to Houston and swallowing Coterras Marcellus assets theyve created a multi-basin giant that can pivot between oil and gas depending on where the data center demand is highest. -Who's the next mid-cap target in the crosshairs https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310444242563502 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310444242563502" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020310444242563502) 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The $58 billion Devon-Coterra merger (announced February [--] 2026) isn't just a big dealits a tactical retreat into "quality" as the shale era enters its maturity. By combining they are essentially creating a "Delaware Basin Fortress" designed to withstand the volatile [----] energy market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311695529275823 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311695529275823" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020311695529275823) 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. The "Delaware Basin" Fortress The combined entity (which will keep the Devon Energy name) becomes a top-three Permian producer trailing only ExxonMobil and Chevron. +The Scale: Pro forma production exceeds [---] million Boe/day. +The "Prize" Inventory: They now hold the industrys largest inventory of sub-$40 breakeven wells. This is the ultimate insurance policy against the current slide in oil prices. +Contiguous Acreage: The overlap in Lea County New Mexico allows for "longer laterals" (3-mile wells) which significantly lowers the cost per barrel." [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020311697055949115) 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. The AI-Driven "Synergy" ($1 Billion) Management isn't just talking about cutting oFFice costs. Theyve specifically highlighted AI-driven optimization as a core pillar of the $1 billion in annual synergies expected by [----]. +Subsurface AI: Using combined data from both companies to predict "frac hits" and optimize well spacing in the increasingly crowded Delaware Basin. +Capital Discipline: They are targeting a reinvestment rate of 50% prioritizing a massive $5 billion+ share buyback program and a $0.315/share quarterly dividend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311699086037325" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020311699086037325) 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. The "Gas Optionality" Hedge While Devon was oil-weighted Coterra brings the Marcellus Shale (gas) to the table. In [----] this is a strategic masterstroke: +Data Center Demand: The merger positions Devon to supply the massive "power load" growth from AI data centers and U.S. LNG export terminals. +The "Warsh" Dollar: With a strong USD making oil exports more expensive having a diversified gas portfolio provides a domestic revenue cushion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311700885422473 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311700885422473" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020311700885422473) 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Great research. Its a classic reminder that while the 61.8% is the 'Golden Ratio' the 50% is the 'Psychological Ratio.' Its where the market decides if a move was a breakout or just a fake-out" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020316365173780722) 2026-02-08T01:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'SaaSpocalypse' is the market finally admitting that 'Enterprise Software' isn't a defensive sector anymore. If UR product is a wrapper for a process that an LLM agent now automates for free that 'generous equity cushion' is just a high-priced ticket on a sinking ship. Distressed managers are hunting for firms with an actual data moat not just a recurring billing cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020335617792422278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020335617792422278" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020335617792422278) 2026-02-08T03:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Managers touting the 'equity cushion' are the same ones who ignored the rising PIK (Payment-in-Kind) toggles last year. When $18B drops to distressed levels in [--] weeks its not a correctionits a liquidity event. The real test comes when these 'generous' sponsors decide its cheaper to toss the keys to the creditors than to write another check. $18 billion in tech loans dropped to distressed levels in four weeks. Total distressed pile now $47 billion. But don't worry private credit managers assure us the equity cushion is "generous." https://t.co/qkhV6kIFJx $18 billion in tech loans dropped to" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020335760977584628) 2026-02-08T03:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "SaaSpocalypse" Trigger The primary driver isn't just interest rates; its the AI #displacement #trade. +The Existential Threat: Lenders are realizing that many "legacy" SaaS firms (especially in customer experience ad-tech and coding services) are facing a structural decline. If an AI agent can perform the task of a $50/month software seat the borrowers revenue modeland their ability to service debtevaporates. +The Distressed Pile: The total tech distressed debt (loans trading with yields 10% over SOFR) jumped from roughly $29B in early January to $46.9B this week. +High-Profile Names:" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020336523191709816) 2026-02-08T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "Equity Cushion" Debate When private credit managers say the equity cushion is "generous" they mean that the private equity sponsors (the owners) have put in 4050% of the capital which theoretically protects the lenders from losses. +The Counter-Argument: Junk bond investors are skeptical. If the underlying business model is being disrupted by AI a 50% equity cushion can vanish in a matter of months. +Liability Management (LMEs): We are seeing a wave of "Aggressive Liability Management" where sponsors are trying to "kick the can" by offering creditors worse terms to save their own equity" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020336860921262325) 2026-02-08T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its a brutal case of relative weakness. While the rest of the Communication Services sector is being buoyed by the AI trade $NFLX and $SPOT are acting like theyre in a diFFerent index entirely. Losing the 200-day SMA synchronously is usually the 'death knell' for the momentum crowd. Were oFFicially in 'Show Me' territory for these two. $NFLX and $SPOT both peaked and rolled over at the same time & lost the 200-sma at the same time. Both are streaming media stocks in the communication services sector. I don't spend much time on the why's just what happens on the charts. https://t.co/JT2QGnEcMG" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020353448198263009) 2026-02-08T04:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Technical Reality: Why the 200-SMA Matters In the [----] market breaking the 200-day SMA isn't just a "dip"; it's a regime change: +Institutional Liquidation: When "Blue Chip" names like these break the 200-day on volume it typically triggers systematic selling from large-cap funds that are mandated to hold only "up-trending" assets. +The Communication Services Divergence: The sector ( $XLC ) is actually being held up by AI giants like Alphabet and Meta. The fact that $NFLX and $SPOT are breaking down while the sector remains stable indicates a rotation out of "Subscription Streaming" and" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020354301990674809) 2026-02-08T04:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The pivot to the 'Everything Exchange' (Stocks + Crypto) is the real [----] story Brian. While people obsess over the Feb [--] liquidations they're missing the fact that Coinbase is built to survive the 4-year cycle by eating the traditional brokerage model. Updating the financial system isn't just about crypto; it's about puTTing the legacy stock market on-chain. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020360147495751966 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020360147495751966" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020360147495751966) 2026-02-08T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Shipping through a bear market is Coinbase's superpower. The most bullish thing right now isn't $BTC priceits the growth of #Base as the default rail for AI agents. If [----] is the year AI starts transacting via stablecoins the 'financial system update' happens behind the scenes while the retail crowd is still looking at the charts. @brian_armstrong The pivot to the 'Everything Exchange' (Stocks + Crypto) is the real [----] story Brian. While people obsess over the Feb [--] liquidations they're missing the fact that Coinbase is built to survive the 4-year cycle by eating the traditional brokerage" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020360361329733897) 2026-02-08T04:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The decision to pull support from the 'bad' version of the Clarity Act shows Coinbase is the only one willing to fight for a level playing field. $78M in the [----] midterm war-chest says crypto isn't just 'staying'its going to be the defining policy issue of the year" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020360521460126039) 2026-02-08T04:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "Everything Exchange" Strategy #Coinbase isn't just a crypto exchange anymore. Since December [----] theyve been aggressively rolling out 24/5 Stock Trading and Tokenized Equities to US users. +The Goal: To become the "Apple of Finance"the single app where you manage your 401(k) trade $TSLA and stake $SOL. +The "Eat Financial Services" Evidence: As of early [----] [--] of the world's top [--] banks (including JPMorgan and PNC) have integrated Coinbases white-label infrastructure to oFFer crypto services to their own clients. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361181798547457" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020361181798547457) 2026-02-08T04:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$COIN "Shipping Through Conditions" Despite the Feb [----] bear market the product pipeline is full: +Roadmap Adds: Just this week (Feb 6-7) Coinbase added Superform (UP) DeepBook (DEEP) and Walrus (WAL) to the listing roadmap. +Base Scaling: The Base chain has become the dominant Layer [--] for AI-agent transactions which @brian_armstrong sees as the next massive growth vector where "AI agents use crypto wallets to pay each other." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361786772316645 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361786772316645" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020361786772316645) 2026-02-08T04:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1.2 is the 'Sweet Spot.' Its high enough to allow Strategy to keep issuing equity to buy more $BTC (the 'Bitcoin Yield' engine) but low enough that the valuation doesn't feel like a bubble. If it holds here through the weekend it means the 'smart money' just finished their re-accumulation. mNAV on Strategy is [---] and holding. Its too early to declare victory yet but if this holds we are back in business. mNAV on Strategy is [---] and holding. Its too early to declare victory yet but if this holds we are back in business" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020372482905997428) 2026-02-08T05:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Mooch Bull-Meter is back in the green [---] mNAV is the line in the sand. As long as Strategy trades at a premium the infinite loop of 'debt-to-BTC' stays alive. This isn't just a bounce; its the market admitting that Bitcoin on a balance sheet is more valuable than Bitcoin in a cold wallet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020372697402798584 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020372697402798584" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020372697402798584) 2026-02-08T05:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When @Scaramucci mentions mNAV and "Strategy" he is referencing the most aggressive financial crossover story of early 2026: the valuation of MicroStrategy ( $MSTR ) relative to its Bitcoin holdings. As of February [--] [----] the "mNAV" (Market-to-Net Asset Value) multiple is the heartbeat of the Bitcoin treasury trade. Scaramucci is essentially saying that the "premium" on the stock is finally stabilizing after the brutal market flush on February [--]. -What is mNAV and Why [---] Matters The mNAV is a ratio that compares the companys Market Cap (or Enterprise Value) to the Total Value of its Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020373351009501525) 2026-02-08T05:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements ""Unrealized losses are not a strategy failure. Theyre the cost of conviction. With Bitcoin briefly dipping below $70000 the market is once again stress-testing high-conviction holders. Michael Saylors Strategy currently holds [------] $BTC valued at roughly $49.9B at spot prices. With an average entry around $76000 this translates into an unrealized drawdown of $4.4B. Lets be precise: +This is paper loss not forced selling. +This is volatility not insolvency. +This is what happens when long-term theses meet short-term markets. Bitcoin was never designed to be comfortable. It was designed to" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020375518739063130) 2026-02-08T05:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Farleys NYSE background is showing here. In traditional finance if you don't have a sustainable P&L you get acquired or liquidated. Crypto has dodged this reality for years through token inflation and 'hopium' valuations. In [----] with the [---] mNAV floor on $MSTR and the $NDX 200-day breakdown the market is demanding real businesses not just 'cool tech.' 🚨CRYPTO SECTOR CONSOLIDATION INCOMING Bullish CEO Tom Farley says weaker crypto projects will be snapped up by larger firms as the industry wakes up to the fact that many companies have products not businesses. He said the consolidation" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020376749511504310) 2026-02-08T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As the CEO of Bullish (and former President of the NYSE) Farley isn't just an observer; he is actively positioning his exchange to be the primary "consolidator" in a market that is finally moving from speculation to infrastructure. The "Product vs. Business" Trap Farleys core thesis is that [--------] created a "zombie" class of crypto companies: +The "Product" Companies: These are protocols or apps that solve a single technical problem (e.g. a new bridge or a niche DEX) but have no sustainable revenue model no regulatory moat and no path to institutional adoption. +The "Business" Companies:" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020378328620749278) 2026-02-08T06:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why [----] is the "Great Shakeout" Farley noted that high valuations kept these "products" alive longer than they deserved. In February [----] the game has changed: +Liquidity Replacement Cost: Acquiring an existing project is now often cheaper than building from scratch. Large firms are looking to "buy" users and compliance licenses that smaller firms can no longer afford to maintain. +The "Bullish" Momentum: Farley just reported (Feb [--] 2026) that Bullish's institutional options platform surpassed $4 billion in open interest making them the #2 global exchange for $BTC options. With $92.5 million" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020378709828501594) 2026-02-08T06:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The G10 bounce looks like a 'head fake' driven by the Warsh headline but the #EM tape doesn't lie. If the Dollar can't catch a bid against the $BRL or $MXN while the Nasdaq is dropping 4% it means the 'Safe Haven' status of the Greenback is eroding. Were seeing a structural shift where the world is no longer funding the US deficit at any price. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020383727881228678 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020383727881228678" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020383727881228678) 2026-02-08T06:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The #EM resilience is particularly interesting given the ongoing tariFF threats. Usually EM gets crushed when the US talks trade war but in Feb [----] they are holding firm. This suggests the market has already 'priced in' the worst of the protectionism and is now focused on the fact that the Fed is the only central bank with meaningful r00m To cuT. The best leading indicator for Dollar direction is how it trades against EM. The Dollar bounced back a bit since the Warsh nomination but this was vs the G10 (blue). It remains near its lows vs EM (black). This is a sign more Dollar weakness is" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020383986770403382) 2026-02-08T06:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The G10 vs. EM #Divergence (Feb [----] Context) +The G10 "Yield Trap": The bounce vs. the Euro and Yen is a reaction to Kevin Warsh's reputation as a balance-sheet hawk. Markets are betting he will shrink the Fed's portfolio which naturally props up the USD against other "low-yield" developed currencies like the Yen (which is still dealing with Japan's election uncertainty on Feb 8). +The EM Resilience: The fact that the USD remains near lows against EM currencies (like the BRL MXN and INR) suggests that the "Global Reflation" trade is still alive. EM currencies are often the "canary in the" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020384840248377797) 2026-02-08T06:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "That $17.4B gross short is the ultimate 'Pain Trade' for February. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the IEEPA TariFFs this month we could see a violent short squeeze as speculators are forced to buy back the USD to hedge trade-war risk. Hansens data suggests the market is leaning way too far into the 'Weak Dollar' narrative while the policy risks in DC are still peaking. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020463750776533108 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020463750776533108" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020463750776533108) 2026-02-08T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Commitment of Traders (COT) data (for the week ending Feb [--] 2026) reveals a massive "Positioning Powder Keg." While the headlines focus on the USDs modest rebound following the Warsh nomination the smart money (Managed Money/Hedge Funds) doubled down on their bearish bets. The fact that the gross short across the eight IMM currency futures has hit a six-month high of $17.4 billion suggests that the market is viewing the current Dollar bounce not as a new trend but as a "Short Squeeze" in a structural bear market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020471248220766367" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020471248220766367) 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. The "Crowded Short" Paradox Speculators are eFFectively beTTing that the Warsh Hawkishness is a mirage. +The "Wait & See" Strategy: Despite the 100+ bps spike in the 10Y Treasury yield over the last month funds are still heavily net-long the Euro (equivalent to $23.9 billion at the start of the year). +The Yen Factor: With Japans Lower House elections today (Feb 8) the Yen short-covering is the only thing keeping the USD afloat. If the ruling coalition consolidates power as expected speculators might resume JPY-funded carry trades putting more pressure on the USD." [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020471250947018845) 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. Emerging Markets (#EM) as the Anchor This COT data validates @robin_j_brooks observation that the Dollar is failing against EM currencies. +Real Yield Dominance: Brazil is currently offering a 10.7% real rate (15% Selic vs 4.3% inflation) making it a vacuum for global capital. +The "Safe Dollar" Exit: As Convera noted the Dollar is losing its status as a "global shock absorber." Even when U.S. macro data beats expectations the COT report shows speculators are using every rally to aDD to their $17.4 billion short pile. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020471253463666741" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020471253463666741) 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "You read that rightits Abenomics on steroids but without the 'Third Arrow' of structural reform. Takaichi is doubling down on the 'Heroine Cult' popularity to bypass fiscal hawks. If she uses this super-majority to force the BoJ into permanent yield curve control we aren't just looking at a 'Takaichi trade' we're looking at the potential end-game for the Yen. Sanae Takaichi sought and will get a clear mandate today from Japans electorate to print money to keep prices down. You read that right Sanae Takaichi sought and will get a clear mandate today from Japans electorate to print money to" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020476942739210551) 2026-02-08T12:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'mandate' is clear but the Bond Vigilantes are already voting. JGB 10Y yields hitting 2% is the market saying 'enough.' Takaichi wants a 'responsible active fiscal policy' but theres nothing responsible about a [--] trillion food tax cut funded by more debt in a rising rate environment. The BoJ is officially the most uncomfortable seat in global finance right now. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020477445648822411 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020477445648822411" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020477445648822411) 2026-02-08T12:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Todays landslide victory for Sanae Takaichi (February [--] 2026) is the ultimate endorsement of "Sanaenomics"a policy that has left traditional economists and the currency markets in a state of absolute vertigo. The exit polls (predicting up to [---] seats) give her the "super majority" she needs to execute a fiscal plan that is quite literally an aTTempt to fight inflation by throwing a $135 billion "money bomb" at it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020478811171668177 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020478811171668177" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020478811171668177) 2026-02-08T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Sanaenomics Paradox: "Printing to Save" Takaichis logic breaks from the traditional "hawk vs. dove" mold: +The "Mandate": She argues that the only way to "keep prices down" for the average voter is to aggressively subsidize the costs of living. +The Tools: This includes a [--] trillion stimulus package the abolition of gasoline taxes and a controversial 2-year suspension of the 10% food consumption tax (a [--] trillion hit to revenue). +The Funding: This is the "you read that right" part. In a country with debt exceeding 250% of GDP she plans to fund these tax cuts and subsidies through new" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020478812778004843) 2026-02-08T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "⚖ Assessing the Bet: Potential Outcomes for USD Shorts The performance of those $17.4B USD short positions depends on which policy forcegovernment spending or central bank tighteningwins out in the near term. +The "Genius" Scenario (Delayed BOJ Hikes): This occurs if Takaichi's win is interpreted as a move toward fiscal dominance. If markets believe her stimulus agenda will force the BOJ to keep policy accommodative for longer USD/JPY could retest or break above [---]. In this case the existing USD shorts would suFFer lo$$e$ as the yen weakens further. +The "Long Way Down" Scenario (Forced BOJ" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020479449481806047) 2026-02-08T12:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As of February [--] [----] Bitcoin is undergoing its first major stress test since the [----] "Mania Phase" peaked at $126210 in October. The $65000 level hes watching is crucialit represents the high-volume support zone established during the [----] breakout and the current 50% "drawdown floor."" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020535614156820637) 2026-02-08T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Psychology of the "Half-Back" Correction +The $126k Euphoria: At the October peak the $1M price targets were fueled by the "Institutional Tsunami" and the passing of the GENIUS Act. When sentiment is that high risk management is often discarded. +The $63k Reality: This past Thursday (February [--] 2026) BTC actually dipped briefly to $63000its lowest level in over a year. The "Calls for $0" are a predictable reaction to the $19B liquidation event. +The "Mean Reversion" Play: A 50% correction in a bull market is often the "healthiest" thing that can happen. It flushes out the leverage (like" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020535615868043593) 2026-02-08T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its a baTTle between the 'Warsh Narrative' and the 'CTA Algos.' The market wants to be bullish on the Fed Chair nominEE but the systematic triggers have already bEEn pulled. The $33B in estimated selling this week means we nEEd a massive 'Buy the Dip' catalyst just to stay flat. Watch the 13F drop on Feb 14thats the first real chance for the fundamental buyers to outweigh the machines. STOCK SELL-OFF NOT OVER GOLDMAN TRADERS SAY Goldman Sachs warns that US stocks could face more selling this week driven by trend-following funds known as CTAs which have already hit sell triggers in the S&P" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020550331370017272) 2026-02-08T17:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This report from Goldman Sachs highlights the "plumbing" issues of the [----] market. While retail investors often focus on headlines like the Kevin Warsh nomination or the Greenland mining disputes the real price action this week is being driven by the math-based selling of CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors). As of February [--] [----] the S&P [---] is hovering near the critical [----] support level. If this level fails the Goldman "Gamma and CTA" loop could turn a standard correction into a significant rOUT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020553896339411002" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020553896339411002) 2026-02-08T17:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A strong Takaichi mandate is fundamentally Yen-negative. Markets are already pricing in the 'Takaichi Trade': looser fiscal bias + firmer growth expectations = USD/JPY [---]. The challenge is that shes printing money to fight inflation which is essentially fighting fire with gasoline. The 'limitless' US alliance might eventually require a joint intervention just to prevent a total $JPY collapse. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020561078472581591 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020561078472581591" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020561078472581591) 2026-02-08T18:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Its not even a conspiracy anymoreits the Lummis-Warsh playbook. The bill literally proposes selling gold to buy BTC. The Jan [--] gold crash looks like the 'Institutional Exit' before the legislation hits the floor. If the US starts rotating even 1% of its gold into Bitcoin the '$1M BTC' calls from October won't look like hyperbole; they'll look like a conservative estimate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020564980098019464 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020564980098019464" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020564980098019464) 2026-02-08T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Warsh calls Bitcoin the 'canary in the coal mine.' If hes the one holding the cage hes going to use that signal to manage the dollar's decline. Rotating from a 'passive' reserve (gold) to an 'active' monitoring reserve (BTC) gives the Fed a level of real-time market data theyve never had. The 'suppression' were seeing at $65k is just a massive re-accumulation phase before the regime shift. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020565739107958826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020565739107958826" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020565739107958826) 2026-02-08T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "-Why the Market is "Dull" Right Now +The Valuation Ceiling: With the S&P [---] having recently touched all-time highs near [----] investors are hesitant to pay a higher multiple given the 3.50% Fed Funds rate and sticky 2.7% #CPI inflation. +The Earnings StandoFF: While 75% of companies have beaten Q4 earnings expectations the "Magnificent 7" are facing fatigue. As the StoneX report noted traders are rotating out of high-multiple AI stocks and into sectors like Energy (+19.5% YTD) and Industrials. This "inner churn" keeps the overall index level unchanged.+1 +Institutional Hedging: The $17.4" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020571905921630373) 2026-02-08T18:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "On Hartnetts 0-to-10 scale anything above [---] is an "Extreme Bullish" reading that historically triggers a 100% hit-rate sell signal for global equities. At [---] the market has entered what Hartnett calls "Peak Everything": peak positioning peak liquidity and peak inequality. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020629346721927263 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020629346721927263" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020629346721927263) 2026-02-08T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Morgan Stanley is hitting the nail on the head. While the S&P [---] is fighting 'Short Gamma' and CTA sell-triggers at [----] #LatAm is the only region with a 'fresh' investment cycle. The shift from consumption to FDI-led growth means this isn't just a commodity pumpits a structural re-rating. Were moving from the 'Magnificent 7' to the 'Resourceful 7' in the South. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020632196839539161 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020632196839539161" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020632196839539161) 2026-02-08T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 'Early Innings' call makes sense when you look at the Multipolar World theme. Mexico & Brazil are effectively the 'neutral ground' for the US-China trade war. By positioning as the 'safe' supply chain alternative #latam is capturing the CAPEX that used to go to SE Asia. Its the ultimate hedge against the '9.6 Sell Signal' Hartnett is seeing in US tech. LatAm's bull market is still in its early inning. From Morgan Stanley Research. https://t.co/3SRLNoaznR LatAm's bull market is still in its early inning. From Morgan Stanley Research. https://t.co/3SRLNoaznR" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020632441841451064) 2026-02-08T22:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "Early Innings" #LatAm Thesis Morgan Stanleys [----] outlook shifts Latin America from a "trade play" to a "structural investment" story. They argue that while the U.S. market is "late-cycle" (BofA's [---] signal) #LatAm is just beginning its multi-year expansion. +The FDI Supercycle: The "Multipolar World" is the top theme for [----]. LatAm is the primary beneficiary as multinationals prioritize supply chain control over low costs moving factories from Asia to Mexico & Brazil. +The Monetary Tailwind: With the Fed expected to cut 50bps by mid-2026 the Dollar softening typically triggers a" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020633657065574621) 2026-02-08T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The move from 110m to 112m isn't about cars; its about the Petrochemical tailwind. Vitol sees the 'East of Suez' demand for plastics and synthetics as a secular growth story that the West is ignoring. Even if we all drive Teslas the world is still going to be wrapped in oil-based products. This [----] update is the 'death of the bear case' for long-term oil majors. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020817403089703399 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020817403089703399" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020817403089703399) 2026-02-09T11:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'liTTle aTTention' parT is whats most concerning. Yields are ignoring the soft labor data & focusing entirely on the Feb [--] TariFFs. Were seeing a regime shift where the 'Fed Put' is being replaced by 'Fiscal Fear.' If 10-year yields are rising while the economy is cooling it tells you the 'inflation protection' trade is already the dominant force for [----]. US yields tootling higher again but getting relatively little attention One suspects like so much in markets its the speed of the move not the direction of travel that worries people. US yields tootling higher again but getting" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020833834674126884) 2026-02-09T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Spot on. The MOVE Index (bond volatility) is masking a massive buildup of pressure in the 30-year. When the longest-duration asset in the world goes 'flat' for this long it usually ends in a 'convexity event.' We saw a similar 'dead' period in the summer of [----] right before the 10-year made its run to 5%. At 4.85% the market is essentially a coiled spring waiting for a reason to snap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020834650529157495 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020834650529157495" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020834650529157495) 2026-02-09T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its a game of chicken between the #Fed & the #Treasury. The 30-year is flat because nobody wants to bet against Kevin Warshs cuts but nobody wants to buy into the Bessent deficit expansion. History shows that 'flatness' is usually just a lack of convictionand when conviction returns (likely during the March #FOMC) the move will be a 'gap up or gap down' not a slow drift. Buckling up is the only rational move. 30yr U.S. Treasuries have never been this flat for this long in history. Buckle up. https://t.co/aWWkgROY8v 30yr U.S. Treasuries have never been this flat for this long in history." [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020835115916533825) 2026-02-09T12:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The China directive is the first shoe to drop in the 'Financial Repression' era. If the Fed is forced to swallow the $300B+ in Treasuries currently held by Chinese banks to keep yields from hitting 5% weve oFFicially entered the 'Japanification' of the US. The diFFerence is Japan had a high savings rate to fund the debt; the US has a printing press. SchiFF is rightthe Fed is now the only player left in the r00m with an infinite balance sheet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020837548893818976 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020837548893818976" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020837548893818976) 2026-02-09T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Bond Vigilantes are back but theyre wearing Chinese suits this time. This isn't just 'risk management'; it's a vote of no confidence in US fiscal discipline. If 10-year yields hit 4.5% on the back of this news the Fed will have no choice but to restart 'Emergency' QE. Schiff's 'Inflation Soaring' prediction hinges on whether the Fed prioritizes the Dollar or the Debt. History says they always choose the Debt. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020838087467622511 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020838087467622511" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020838087467622511) 2026-02-09T12:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A shift in the 'Safe Haven' narrative. When the world's largest industrial power advises its banks that Treasuries are a 'concentration risk' the very definition of a 'risk-free asset' is being challenged. This aligns with the 18-month gold-buying streak we've seen from the PBoC. They are effectively swapping 'Paper Promises' for 'Hard Assets' in real-time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020839264225800295 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020839264225800295" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020839264225800295) 2026-02-09T12:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Rising yields are doing the BoJ's dirty work for them. The market's 'Fiscal Fear' will force a 'Monetary Reality.' If Takaichi spends the BoJ must hike to defend the 2% inflation target. A higher terminal rate in Japan at the same time the Fed is trying to cut is a recipe for a $USDJPY collapse back toward [---]. Don't mistake a 'bear steepener' for a 'weak currency' signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020863418257805407 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020863418257805407" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020863418257805407) 2026-02-09T14:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Warsh-Bessent 'Accordion' trade is brilliant if you're a borrower but teRRifying if you're a bondholder. @AndreasSteno is righTThis isn't 'Monetary Policy'; its 'Credit Engineering.' By draining reserves while cuTTing the Fed Funds rate they are trying to force banks to lend to the 'Real Economy' instead of parking cash at the Fed. Its the [----] playbook with an AI-productivity sticker slapped on the front. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020882265459372430 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020882265459372430" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020882265459372430) 2026-02-09T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 'Spine of an Earthworm' comment hits hard because it captures the market's biggest fear: Credibility Loss. If Warsh pivots from 'Balance Sheet Critic' to 'Credit Bonanza Orchestrator' just to satisfy the Treasury then the 'Fed Independence' narrative is officially dead. We aren't trading a cycle anymore; we're trading a political mandate for 3% GDP growth at any cost. Investors are slowly but surely starting to acknowledge that Warsh is a "flexible man" and that his mandate is to orchestrate a 2005-2007 style credit creation bonanza in co-operation with Bessent Word-based analysis of his" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020882549992575444) 2026-02-09T15:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Three creditors one bridge. If Japan repatriates because of Takaichi and China exits because of the Feb [--] directive the 'Cayman Whale' is the only one left holding the $28T bag. A 56:1 leverage ratio on $1.85T of debt means a 2% move in yields wipes out the entire equity of the position. #MOVE at [--] isn't a sign of health; its the silence before a 'convexity' event. Everyone thinks Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. The Fed quietly documented four months ago that it's actually Cayman Islands hedge funds $1.85 trillion at up to 56:1 leverage the same weekend Japan's new PM" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020900012939469212) 2026-02-09T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The [--] Primary Dealers are the bottleneck. They cant intermediate $1.85T of hedge fund selling while Japan and China are also hiTTing the 'bid.' Were heading for a July [----] liquidity cliFF where the Treasury will have to decide: let yields spike to 6% or force the Fed into a 'Permanent QE' to save the plumbing. The backstop isn't just contested; its broken. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020900244087562577 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020900244087562577" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020900244087562577) 2026-02-09T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The $CAD isn't just a 'Commodity Peso' anymore; it's an 'Anti-Debt' hedge. While the US is navigating the Warsh-Bessent credit expansion AND rising deficits #Canadas resource-heavy balance sheet looks relatively 'sounder' to global macro funds. If the #DXY breaks [--] the 'quiet' move in the #CAD will turn into a loud breakout. The fact that it's still heavily shorted makes the 'convexity' of this move even higher. The Canadian dollar is quietly breaking higher as the US dollar increasingly confirms the early stages of a major downtrend. Every gold bull market follows the same pattern: a mining" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020911085151232231) 2026-02-09T17:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Every gold bull market ends with an #EM and foreign currency rally and #Canada is the 'DM proxy' for that trade. We're seeing the exact same paTTern from the 2003-2007 era. When you combine the 45-year Silver 'Cup & Handle' breakout with a weakening $USD the $CAD becomes the most attractive high-liquidity play in the world. Buying the 'Canadian Peso' here is eFFectively buying a call option on the entire coMModity compleX. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020911689470750857 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020911689470750857" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020911689470750857) 2026-02-09T17:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Were Watching the Yen transition from a 'Carry Tool' to a 'Growth Proxy.' In [----] people feared higher JGB yields; in [----] they are cheering them because they signal that 'Sanaenomics' is actually working. When the Nikkei hits [-----] and the Yen strengthens its a sign of a regime shifT. Japan isn't the 'world's ATM' anymoreits the world's 'Value Play.' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936044049318131 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936044049318131" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020936044049318131) 2026-02-09T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The "Sanaenomics" Mandate Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis LandsLide victory (securing a two-thirds supermajority) has fundamentally changed how the market views Japanese debt. +The "Bullish" Deficit: Usually higher deficits weaken a currency. However @RyanDetrick is pointing ouT ThaT Takaichi's [--] trillion StimuluS and the SuSpenSion of the f00d tax are being viewed as a "growth shock." +Economic Resiliency: The market is beTTing ThaT This fiscal "baz00ka" wiLL finaLLy puLL Japan out of its multi-decade stagnation making the Yen a "growth currency" rather than just a "funding currency."" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020937609984495945) 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. The Yield-Strength Feedback L00p As of today the move in yields is doing the heavy lifting for the Yen: +JGB Yields Spiking: 10-year yields have jumped toward 2.3% and 40-year yields are hitting record levels above 4%. +The Repatriation: Higher domestic yields mean Japanese institutional investors (who own trillions in US Treasuries) are starting to bring their money home. This "repaTriaTion" creates maSSive demand for Yen pushing it stronger even as the government spends more" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020937611699749118) 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. The "Carry Trade" Mirage @RyanDetrick 's "full circle" comment refers to the panic of August [----] (and several minor scares since). +The Unwind That Wasn't: The fear was that higher Japan rates would force global investors to dump US tech stocks to cover their Yen loans. +The [----] Reality: Because the NiKKei is soaring alongside the Yen it suGGests the move is driven by foreign inflows into Japanese equities rather than a forced liquidation of US assets. Investors are buying Japan because it looks like a "beacon of political stability" compared to the fiscal uncertainty in the UK AND the" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020937613432013084) 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Were moving from a 'Consumer-Led' freight market to an 'Industrial-Led' one. The SONAR data on flatbed tender rejections vs. dry van tells the whole story. While the ports are quiet because of the post-tariFF import hangover the 'Industrial Heartland' is screaming for capacity to move infrastructure for the AI/Energy build. This is the first time in [--] years that the 'Inside the Box' economy is losing to the 'Outside the Box' economy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939218919321902 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939218919321902" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020939218919321902) 2026-02-09T19:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This shift breaks the traditional 'Imports as a Proxy for GDP' model. In the 2010s if LA/Long Beach were soft the economy was soft. In [----] imports are soft because of nearshoring and inventory drawdown while domestic industrials are ramping due to the CAPEX explosion. If youre a carrier still waiting for the 'Retail Peak' youre going to miss the 'Industrial Pivot.' The 'Freight Alley' of the future is about moving machines not just sneakers. There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020939461098406228) 2026-02-09T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'Industrials Ramp' is the intended (and inevitable) consequence of the Feb [--] tariFF regime. ShiPPers aren't just 'waiting' for imports to get cheaper; they are ReRouting their entire supply chains to domestic nodes. @FreightAlley 's observation ThaT This is 'very diFFerenT Than The lasT DecaDe' is an undersTaTemenTiTs The ToTal dismantling of the 'Just-in-Time' import model in favor of a 'Just-in-Case' domestic industrial base. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939794281271615 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939794281271615" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020939794281271615) 2026-02-09T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Waller is essentially confirming the 'VaR Trap' of [----]. Mainstream firms treat crypto like a high-beta aPPendage; when the tariFF-induced volatility hit the Treasury market the risk models didn't care about the 'digital gold' narrativethey just saw a red line on a spreadsheet and hit 'SELL.' This is the growing pain of institutional adoption: crypto is now correlated to the very risk-oFF SignalS IT was suPPosed to #hedge againsT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020941393582068202 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020941393582068202" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020941393582068202) 2026-02-09T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Waller's 'Risk Positions' comment explains the $2.6 billion liquidation we saw last week. The 'Crypto Natives' were buying the dip but the 'Mainstream Firms' were being liquidated by their own risk deparTmenTs. This is the first time weve seen the Fed explicitly link institutional risk mandates to a crypto crash. Waller is basically saying: 'The banks are in the p00l now and theyre the ones splashing the water. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020942029639832021 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020942029639832021" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020942029639832021) 2026-02-09T19:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I LIKE this setup even more when you overlay the macro. You've got a bullish pennant forming exactly as China is being told to 'rein in' Treasury holdings and reAllocate. If that capital rotates from bonds TO coMMdities this pennant won't just breakit will gap UP. The neckline at $62.50 is the line in the sand for the buLLs" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020975191325802999) 2026-02-09T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The facT ThaT This pennanT is holding above the long-term average is key. In the previous two attempts oil failed to sustain the breakout because the dollar was too strong. Now with the 'Bessent-Warsh' credit expansion narrative taking hold the tailwind is finally there. Im watching that $68.50 level on Brent; a breakout there confirms the $70+ target is imminent. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020975759364358487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020975759364358487" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020975759364358487) 2026-02-09T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the core of the 'Economic Freedom' #manifesto. Crypto shouldn't guarantee everyone gets a trophy; it should guarantee everyone gets a seat at the table. By diFFerentiating betwEEn oPPortunity and outcome @brian_armstrong is positioning #Coinbase as a tool for the 'Self-Sovereign Individual.' In a [----] world of rising fiscal dominance a neutral tokenized ledger is THE ONLY WAY to proTecT meriT-based wealTh creaTion. Crypto and tokenization will be a great equalizer giving billions a level playing field to pursue wealth creation. Equality of opportunity is worth pursuing. Equality of" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020976798700536148) 2026-02-09T21:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In a fiat regime you don't run out of money; you run out of credibility. If the BoJ maintains negative real rates while Takaichi drops a 21T stimulus the JGB yield isn't a 'crisis'it's the market's way of telling the BoJ to catch up to reality. The #FX is the only real battlefield left. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979118783737914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979118783737914" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020979118783737914) 2026-02-09T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "El-Erian is highlighting the 'Failure to Launch' for the doLLar buLLs. Testing [--] and failing so spectacularly suGGests that the 'Safe Haven' bid is being outweighed by structural 'Sell America' flows. Between Chinas move away from Treasuries AND the Takaichi supermajority in Japan the $DXY is losing its two biggest supports. Breaking [--] isn't just a technical move; it's a signal that the 'Warsh-Bessent' credit b00m is already being priced as a debasement trade. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020981951428166020 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020981951428166020" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020981951428166020) 2026-02-09T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why "No One Forecasts This" The "Consensus" is currently trapped in two extremes: +The Bears: Expect a "Hard Landing" as high interest rates and the post-tariff inventory hangover crush the consumer. +The Hawks: Expect "Structural Inflation" to stay stuck at 3%+ forcing the Fed to stay higher for longer. + @AndreasSteno 's Middle Path: By identifying the "Manufacturing PMI" recovery early (which hit a 3-year high in cost growth but also a surge in factory ouTpuT last week) Steno is calling for a re-acceleration of GDP paired with a disinflationary trend. Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2020983007188861062) 2026-02-09T22:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the classic 'Pre-CEO Clean Slate.' By suspending the buyback and taking the $4B impairment on renewables now the board is giving Meg O'Neill a 'de-risked' balance sheet when she starts in April. They are eSSentiaLLy admiTTing ThaT the 'Green BP' experiment was t00 expensive for a $65 oil environment. The 8-billion-barrel #Bumerangue discovery in Brazil is the new North StarBuyBacks are the sacrifice to fund that growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021168595397386483 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021168595397386483" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021168595397386483) 2026-02-10T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 'Exorbitant Buyback' era for $BP is officially over. When UR net debt is at $22B and your peers (Shell/Exxon) are operating with much leaner ratios you don't have a choice. The market is punishing the stock (-5.6%) today but this is a long-overdue return to fiscal sanity. You can't lead the 'Energy Transition' if you're the most leveraged player in the patch. Strengthening the balance sheet is the only way to proTecT the dividend in [----]. BREAKING: British oil major BP suspends its $750 million quarterly buyback. The board says it will "fully allocate excess cash to accelerate" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021168847324066002) 2026-02-10T10:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The $4B write-down on solar and biogas is the real headline here. Its a total repudiation of the Looney/Auchincloss era. $BP is now pivoting to 'Value Fossil Fuels' to survive a cycle of oversupply and lower prices. Maintaining the dividend while cuTTing BuyBacks is a 'Barbell Strategy' to keep the institutional income funds haPPy while they scramble to fiX the debT. #BP is no longer an 'Energy Transition' stock; its a 'Brazilian Deepwater' stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021169224761086147 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021169224761086147" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021169224761086147) 2026-02-10T10:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This move puts $BP at odds with Shell and Exxon who have maintained their buybacks but aligns them with Equinor which slashed its program by 70% last week" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021170477931147272) 2026-02-10T10:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The "De-leveraging" Mandate $BP s decision to suspend the $750 million quarterly buyback is a direct response to rising debt AND falling profits. +The Debt Problem: Net debt stood at $22.2 billion at the end of [----]. While down from Q3 it remains far above the target range of $14$18 billion. +Profit Slump: BP reported a full-year [----] underlying profit of $7.5 billion a 16% drop from [----] largely due to the "steepest annual oil price drop since the COVID era". +The $4 Billion Write-down: The board also took a massive $4 billion impairment charge primarily on its solar (Lightsource bp) and" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021171432290394390) 2026-02-10T10:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "9 standard deviations is essentially a 'Black Swan' in ratio terms. We are seeing a complete decoupling of the 'Monetary Asset' (Gold) from the 'Industrial Bloodstream' (Oil). Historically these extremes don't last more than a few months. If the 'Warsh Credit Expansion' actually hits the real economy that 80x ratio will collapse toward 40x in a heartbeatmostly through Oil catching up. The 'Energy as Value' trade is officially the loneliest and likely most profitable trade of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173029565305103 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173029565305103" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021173029565305103) 2026-02-10T10:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#Gold is pricing in Fiscal Failure (Debt/Independence) while #Oil is pricing in Physical Surplus (Shale/Soft China). The gap is the widest its been since the [----] anomaly. But remember: you can't build the 'AI Data Centers' or the 'Reshored Factories' the market is hyped about without moving physical atoms. The 'catch-up' potential isn't just a possibility; it's a physical necessity for the next leg of the cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173728793469261 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173728793469261" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021173728793469261) 2026-02-10T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The technicals are lining up with a fascinating fundamental shift. #Aluminum isn't just a metal anymore; it's a 'stored energy' play. As long as AI data centers keep outbidding smelters for baseload power that 'key resistance' level is going to eventually snap. $CENX at a 52-week high while the DXY is sub-97 is the perfect 'Real Assets' trade for [----]. If it breaks $3200/t the run to the [----] highs ($4000) becomes the base case" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021176550402466055) 2026-02-10T10:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Fundamental "Tailwind" The technical breakout isn't haPPening in a vacUUm. Two structural shifts are fueling the move: +The "Power Gatekeeper": Aluminum smelters are now directly competing with AI Data Centers for long-term electricity contracts. This is creating a "hard ceiling" on global supply as data centers can aFFord much higher power prices. Century is one of the few players with secured power through [----]. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Demand: Reshoring eFForts in the US have increased domestic aluMiNuM demand for EVs AND solar infrastructure just as imports from Canada & China" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021177537267703971) 2026-02-10T11:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The decoupling of the 'Virtual Barrel' from the physical glut is complete. If those Brent call spreads hit the 'Gamma Peak' near $75 dealers will be forced to buy into a ThiNNiNg markeT. Weve seen this movie before in Silver. In a world where #DXY is breaking down and every coMModity is a gaMMa-driven trade 'oversupply' is a [----] problem but a 'delta-hedging' squEEze is a right-now problem. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201960704098509 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201960704098509" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021201960704098509) 2026-02-10T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 'Silver Road' analogy is chILLing for the bears. People are looking at the IEA's 4mb/d surplus forecast for [----] and shorting but theyre geTTing run over by The opTions Tape. If the gamma flip haPPens the fundamentals become iRRelevant. Are we seeing the same 'strike concentration' in the WTI-Brent spread or is this strictly a Brent-driven hunt for a geopolitical risk premium Crazy volumes in Brent call spreads on Friday: a few more sessions like this and oil could be taking "Silver Road" soon. All commodities are now gamma driven. Crazy volumes in Brent call spreads on Friday: a few more" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021202282042306652) 2026-02-10T12:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Marc is highlighting a critical regime shift. The fact that the US 10-year yield can't stay above 4.20% despite China's warnings about Treasury exposure suggests that 'recession fears' are now outweighing 'fiscal fears.' If we get a weak ADP print today that 4.20% level goes from a floor to a ceiling. The dollar's 'firmer bias' feels like a dead-cat bounce in a broader structural downtrend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210795594432810 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210795594432810" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021210795594432810) 2026-02-10T13:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Yen is the story of the week. Yesterdays 'outside down day' on $USDJPY was a massive technical reversal. As Marc points out JGB yields are softer even with Takaichis mandate which implies the market is pricing in 'stability' rather than 'fiscal chaos.' If the 10-year JGB settles comfortably at 2.25% while the US 10-year stays sub-4.20% the carry trade unwind is only JUST begINNING. The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021211029795922198) 2026-02-10T13:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fink is confirming the [----] pivot: the era of the Fed being the only game in town is over. When interest payments consume 14% of the budget fiscal policy becomes the primary driver of the dollar's value. Swapping into 'Refinement' AND 'Nuclear' isn't just about safety; its about owning the bottleneck of the AI economy. If you cant TrusT the currency you have to oWn the atoMs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225163891548479 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225163891548479" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021225163891548479) 2026-02-10T14:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The 'Monopoly Money' coMMent hits diFFerent when you realize China just started scaling back its Treasury exposure for its own banks. Fink is identifying the 'Confidence Gap.' If the US can't hit that 3% growth target the 'debasement trade'moving into gold AND infrastructureisn't a choice its a survival mechanism for Kapital. BlackRock isn't just warning about it; they are literally building the rails for it through tokenization of these real-world aSSetS. "Interest on the US debt is ultimately what's predicted to destroy the US economy. That debt payments will eventually grow out of control" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021225422432718974) 2026-02-10T14:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting that Fink mentions 'Nuclear' AND 'Refinement.' In [----] these are the new 'Hard Money.' You can't print a uranium enrichment facility or a modular nuclear reactor. As the dollar index (DXY) breaks sub-97 the market is voting for tangible energy production over fiat promises. Fink's warning is a roadmap for the 'Great Rotation' from paper wealth to physical sovereignty. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225794329100517 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225794329100517" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021225794329100517) 2026-02-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Zeberg is identifying the 'Confidence Gap.' The Fed is still looking at 'solid' GDP from Q4 but todays 0.0% retail print (and -0.1% control group) is the real-time truth. When discretionary spending in furniture and clothing drops like this the feedback loop has already reached the household level. The Fed won't 'rescue' until the credit market freezes and by then the 'Blow-OFF Top' Zeberg warned about will be a distant memory. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229523417633050 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229523417633050" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021229523417633050) 2026-02-10T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The market is desperate for the 'Warsh Rescue' but the 10-year yield sliding to 4.16% today tells you the bond market sees the loop starting. Retail sales aren't just 'bad'; they're 'stagnant' in an environment of rising costs. The Fed is trapped between sticky 2.7% inflation and a consumer that has officially stopped buying. Zebergs 'Titanic' metaphor is looking more accurate with every data release. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229900741382318 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229900741382318" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021229900741382318) 2026-02-10T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Vortexa is highlighting the great [----] #diVergence: a 'Physical Balance' in mainstream grades vs. a 'Paper Surplus' in the forecasts. The re-mainstreaming of Venezuela is the real game-changer here. By allowing those barrels back into the transparent market via GL [--] the US is eFFectively 'cleaning UP' the shadow fleet. It turns out the 'surplus' was just a maTTer of labeling. Crude oil markets are facing rapid changes and surprising turns these days. [----] was supposed to be the year of the big crude oil surplus but at least at the beginning we see a largely balanced market. That is when" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021234171377516689) 2026-02-10T14:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fascinating curve structure. That 'depreSSed beLLy' past [----] is the IEA surplus forecast perfectly priced in. But the 'Prompt Steepening' in Brent suggests we have an immediate inventory discoNNect. If OECD stocks are as low as Goldman and Vortexa suggest that 70c Brent #backwardation could hit $1.50 before the '2026 Surplus' even starts to show up in the data. WTI is the laggard because the US is the only place with a real buFFer. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021281158793744752 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021281158793744752" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021281158793744752) 2026-02-10T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The narrowing of the WTI backwardation while Brent steepens is a massive signal for the Brent-WTI spread ($4.90 today). If the 'Venezuela Quarantine' continues to keep US refiners stocked with domestic/local heavy barrels WTI is headed for full #contango by March. Brent is taking the 'Silver Road' on prompt tightness while WTI is already looking at the [----] glut. The trade isn't 'Long Oil' its 'Long Brent/Short WTI. The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front depressed belly into contango past" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021281337424941472) 2026-02-10T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Brent/WTI divergence is the real 'Value Trade' of the week. Brents 70c backwardation is a physical alarm bell that the [----] 'Surplus' hasn't arrived in the North Sea yet. Meanwhile WTI at 20c is telling the truth about the US #shale #glut. We are looking at a 'split-screen' market: Geopolitical panic in the Atlantic vs. Inventory reality in the Gulf. The Brent prompt-spread is the only thing keeping the 'Supercycle' HOPE alive. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282988789518373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282988789518373" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021282988789518373) 2026-02-10T17:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "We've moved past 'Island Encircling' exercises. Hu is signaling that Beijing's patience with the 'incremental' escalation of arms sales has enDeD. A $20B deal including #IBCS integration isn't just a sale; it's a structural shift in the Strait's military balance. If 'real actions' mean a perMAnent MAritime quarantine the global supply chain for semiconductors ( $TSMC ) is the first casualty. This is the 'Monopoly Money' era mEEting 'Hard Power' reality. If the Financial Times report is true and the US sells $20 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan it will certainly trigger a very serious" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021290200257949758) 2026-02-10T18:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Hus inclination toward 'real action' matches the internal pressure Xi is facing after the December drills failed to stop the next package. With the KMT already blocking parts of the defense budget in Taipei Beijing sees a window to fracture the US-Taiwan relationship. If the #FT report is true we should expect more than just 'Justice Mission 2026'we're looking at a fundamental change in the 'Status Quo.' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021290675568775575 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021290675568775575" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021290675568775575) 2026-02-10T18:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The bearish divergence on the WTI daily is the 'tell.' Were seeing a classic MoMenTuM hand-oFF. #Gold is correcting because its over-owned (9% drop from the highs) while #Oil is trying to boTTom because its under-owned (lowest net-longs since 2014). The 'Double Top' at $66.60 is a temporary ceiling but if the $DXY beaR Rally stalls at [-----] the roTaTion into 'Real Energy' will leave the paper ShortS stranDeD. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021298479557988677 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021298479557988677" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021298479557988677) 2026-02-10T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The fact that miners are green while Silver is -2% is the ultimate sign that the 'forced liquidation' phase is over. We saw the same paTTern in early 2025: miners boTTomed tWo weeks before the metal made its big move. With the 10-year yield struggling to stay above 4.20% the 'Real Yield' headWind is fading. Schiffs miners arent just holding UP; theyre froNt-ruNNiNg the Next CPI-driveN squEEze. @PeterSchiff Schiff is right about the #decoupling. At $5000 Gold even the 'high-cost' miners are seeing 60%+ net margins. The relative strength in $EPGIX today shows that investors are looking past the" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021303699709300785) 2026-02-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#Miners are the 'Income Play' of the supercycle. With names like Pan African & AngloGold hiking dividends theyve become a defensive alternative to a shaky Treasury market. SchiFF is spoTTing the 'Breadth Improvement'when gold miners refuse to break their February 3rd lows the boTTom is sTaTisTicALLY #confirmed. The 'Silver Road' is still open; its just being repaved today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021304201415139548 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021304201415139548" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021304201415139548) 2026-02-10T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fascinating that Bessent is the one defending the 'ample reserves' regime. It shows that even the most vocal critics of QE (like Warsh and Bessent) have to respect the regulatory liquidity needs of the big banks. A one-year 'sit back' period suggests that the 'New Accord' is more about long-term reform than short-term market shocks. This is a massive 'risk-ON' signal for duratiON. @NickTimiraos Bessent is performing 'verbal yield curve control.' By taking the immediate threat of aggressive QT oFF the table he's giving the 10-year yield room to seTTle beloW 4.20%. The 'Warsh Fed' is eVolVing" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021305376050696204) 2026-02-10T19:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "BofA is coNfirMing the 'LeVerAGE Play' of [----]. When AISC is locked at $1600 and the metal is at $5000 every $100 move in Gold is pure boTTom-line profiT. The market is still valuing these companies like #Gold is at $2500. This 8x EV/EBITDA multiple compared to Techs 22x is the widest 'Value gaP' weve seen in a DecaDe. The rerating won't be a crawl; itll be a VerTical jumP when the earningS surpriseS Start hiTTing this quarter. Bank of America: PM miners are the cheapest commodity sector - Lowest EV/EBITDA - Highest FCF yield Despite higher metal prices valuations have not rerated. At current" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021356447687147708) 2026-02-10T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The 'FCF Yield' is the real story here. Mining stocks have transitioned from 'speculative beTs' to 'Income Engines.' At current cash flow levels we are looking at a wave of massive special dividends AND buybacks. BofAs note suGGests that the 'Smart Money' is roTaTing inTo miners noT jusT for The gold price buT for the 10%+ yield-on-cost potential. The 'Monopoly Money' exit is leading straight into the highest-yielding hard aSSetS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021358781209166238 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021358781209166238" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021358781209166238) 2026-02-10T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting that BofA expects production to drop 2% while prices are at record highs. That 'Inelastic Supply' is the ultimate insurance for this trade. If youre a 'FCF Machine' in a market where your competitors are shrinking you command a preMiuM. The 0.75x P/NAV is a historical anomaly that only exists because of the 'Warsh Shock' in January. That gap is closing fasT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021359273041608928 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021359273041608928" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021359273041608928) 2026-02-10T23:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Lyn is rightfiscal gravity alWays Wins. The [----] 'TariFF WaLL' only succEEded in ReRouting Chinese capital into the Global South creating a $1.2T surplus that the IMF now has to manage. BeSSents plea to the G7 is a quiet admiSSion that bilateral trade wars can't stop a manufacturing superpower that has already diversified its customer base. The 'coLLapse' wasn't a reality; it was a hope masquerading as a forecasT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377118622392679 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377118622392679" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021377118622392679) 2026-02-11T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The irony is peak [----]. After a year of 'Decoupling' rhetoric the US is now asking International Institutions to help 'rebalance' the very surplus the tariFFs WERE suPPosed to desTrOY. Chinas ability to run a $1.2T surplus while US retail sales hit 0% (todays data) shows who has the real productive capacity. The 'coLLapse' analysts are stiLL l00king at [----] spreadshEEts in a [----] world. Imagine being one of the analysts that keeps saying China will collapse soon. Then the U.S. Treasury Secretary comes out saying hopefully the IMF and G7 can help deal with Chinas $1 trillion trade surplus" [X Link](https://x.com/urtrading/status/2021377413603578136) 2026-02-11T00:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@urtrading ur-trading
ur-trading posts on X about ai, market, bitcoin, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] -12%
- [--] Month [------] +1,793%
- [--] Months [------] +455%
- [--] Year [-------] -31%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Months [---] +35%
- [--] Year [---] -64%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.90%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.60%
- [--] Months [-----] +4.60%
- [--] Year [-----] +6.80%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance 71.78% stocks 19.86% countries 18.12% cryptocurrencies 13.24% technology brands 6.97% currencies 6.27% exchanges 4.88% financial services 3.48% travel destinations 2.44% automotive brands 1.74%
Social topic influence ai 12.89%, market 10.45%, bitcoin 9.06%, money 8.71%, inflation #2042, gold 8.71%, in the 8.36%, china 8.01%, just a 8.01%, silver 7.32%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @brianarmstrong @andreassteno @grichm77 @chain_alphax @scaramucci @robinjbrooks @ryandetrick @nicktimiraos @deitaone @alexfinn @williamtjzhuo @triggertrades @wolffinancial @kathylienfx @zeecontrarian1 @zerohedge @devonenergy @coterraenergy @freightalley @peterschiff
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) BP p.l.c. (BP) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"1. The "Real Price" Floor When you look at WTI Crude (currently trading around $63.50) adjusted for the $22.4 trillion in M2 money supply you see that oil is essentially re-testing its 40-year valuation floor. +The 2000s Parallel: In the early 2000s oil traded near $20 before a decade-long run to $140. On an "inflation-adjusted" basis $60 today is arguably cheaper than $20 was then given the sheer volume of dollars printed in the last five years. +The Technical Setup: The Inverse Head-and-Shoulders mentioned is forming on the monthly chart. If oil breaks above the $78$80 neckline it signals a"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TriggerTrades Last time we saw coordinated sell signals across $SPX $DJI $IWM and $NDX what happened next Anyone remember Q4 2018"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: Greater transparency reduces risk premia in oil markets potentially easing inflation volatility priced into bonds. Energy: U.S. Gulf refiners benefit from heavy crude supply diversification reducing reliance on Canadian and Middle Eastern barrels. AI & Tech: Transparency in commodity benchmarks mirrors the broader push for data integritypricing clarity is critical for algorithmic trading and risk models. Geopolitics: Venezuelan crude flows to the U.S. Gulf highlight shifting sanctions dynamics and pragmatic energy diplomacy. This is an interesting oil"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@WOLF_Financial Soros rotates: bearish energy exits China leverage loads semis & AI. $XOP/ $XLE puts $MSFT / $TSM doubled $NVDA added. Rolling bubbles in motion"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@kathylienfx Kathy flags the labor market as the real story. This echoes past cycles (think [----] when inflation looked tame but tight labor markets kept the Fed cautious)"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This setup resembles the [----] bond rally when Treasuries broke above key moving averages and triggered a sustained move higher as growth fears mounted. It also echoes the [----] debt ceiling standoFF when bonds rallied hard despite headline uncertainty. $TLT - Closed the week above the [--] week MA and confirmed that it made an intermediate term low last week. I believe it's going to have a more significant up move than the one last year which topped at [--] but it remains to be seen how high it goes. https://t.co/EBLJZE6va7 $TLT - Closed the week above the [--] week MA and confirmed that it made an"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Richtech Robotics Inc. develops manufactures deploys and sells robotic solutions for automation in the service industry in the United States. The company oFFers commercial robotic products including #Matradee a line of restaurant service robots for bussing serving hosting advertising and entertaining; and ADAM and Scorpion which are dual-arm AI-powered service robots for beverage preparation and customer interaction in hospitality and retail environments. It also provides industrial robotic products such as Titan a line of heavy-duty autonomous mobile robots (AMR) delivery focused robots;"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GOOGL's [----] capex of $92BN and the forecast"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Exactly. In [----] we were fighting for survival against a hostile #SEC and systemic collapses like #FTX. In [----] were just watching the 'Wall Street' crowd learn what volatility feels like. The #ETFs provide the plumbing but the 'yellow block paper' provides the conviction. Price is noise; the infrastructure is the signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019183682955755812 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019183682955755812"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"La matemtica de una tasa real del 34% es la "guillotina" definitiva. Tienes toda la razn: el S&P [---] no puede ignorar una tendencia bajista para siempre. Cuando se alcance esa vela del 5% de "admisin a la recesin" la brecha hasta los $66.000 ( $IBIT $40 ) se cerrar en un instante. Pero como dijiste esa es la "compra de la vida" antes de que la Fed se vea obligada a inundar de liquidez. Este es el ltimo jefe del ciclo. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189436131561522 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189436131561522"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Look at the short interest on $OIHits nearly 49% of the float. That 7-year base isn't just a technical level; its a graveyard for everyone who bet that fossil energy was obsolete. As we push toward $360 the 'Oversold' bears are going to become the 'Panic Buyers.' This breakout has enough fuel to turn into a vertical launch. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207107715772496 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207107715772496"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A 7-year base breakout is a 'once-in-a-career' type of signal. $OIH isn't just bouncing; it's being repriced for a decade of under-investment. While the $QQQ crowd is fighting for 24x multiples on software the Energy complex is breaking out from levels we haven't seen since the pre-pandemic world. When a base that long breaks the move isn't measured in days it's measured in quarters. The entire Energy Complex is heating up. Look at Oil Services $OIH. About to break out of a 7YR base. The entire space looks like this. https://t.co/zhyBGcrO5C The entire Energy Complex is heating up. Look at Oil"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The rotation is violent because it's logical. AI has commoditized software but it has made energy services indispensable. $OIH breaking out while $IGV (Software) gets shredded is the market finally admitting that you can't run a digital revolution on a starved power grid. The 'Energy Complex' is the new growth sector of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207385802531323 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207385802531323"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The collapse of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens is the smoking gun here. When the 'oFFicial' coins of the siTTing administration lose 95% of their value in weeks its no longer a market; its a predatory liquidity trap. Roubini is right: [----] is the year 'Digital Gold' meets the reality of 5% real rates and the GENIUS Acts regulatory haMMer. The house of cards isn't just unraveling; it's being professionally dismantled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019377593280086177 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019377593280086177"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This isn't just a lucky trade; its a masterclass in reading the [----] 'Great Divorce.' While Western retail was FOMO-ing into silver at $115 Bian Ximing was building a massive short position in Shanghai. The fact that a single Chinese trader now holds the largest net short on the #SHFE shows that the center of gravity for precious metals has shifted East. He didn't just bet against silver; he bet against the Western 'short squeeze' narrative and walked away with $500M. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019444253408063924 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019444253408063924"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lacalle is spot on: the -$2 billion in ETF outflows isn't a failure of the asset; its a failure of the 'hot money' that bought THE TOP. In early [----] were seeing a rotation from levered speculation to spot aCCumulation. When the futures market is bleeding $1 billion a day the 'weak hands' are being replaced by high-conviction holders. This deleveraging is the tax the market pays to build a sustainable floor for the next leg up. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019449378725937535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019449378725937535"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jim is highlighting a "Deleveraging Event" that is mirroring the liquidity shocks of March [----]. On February [--] [----] silver has entered a Free-Fall dropping 21% in a single day on the #MCX and crashing back toward the $71$73 range after its parabolic peak of $121. The "dysfunctional" nature Bianco mentions is the result of a massive discoNNect: while industrial demand (AI/Solar) is still at record highs the paper market is being liquidated to cover margin calls triggered by the "Warsh Shock." Silver is down 21% in the last [--] hours and is now below last Friday's crash low. Why is this"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bessents candor at the World Economic Forum and in recent Senate hearings marks a shift in how the U.S. openly discusses the use of the dollar as a geopolitical weapon. The "swift conclusion" Bessent refers to is the collapse of Ayandeh Bank in late [----] which acted as the tripwire for the current nationwide uprising. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money."
X Link 2026-02-06T00:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bessent is saying the quiet part out loud: the Dollar isn't just a currency; it's a remote-control kill switch for foreign economies. By creating a 'Dollar Shortage' the U.S. forced Iran into a hyperinflationary spiral that no amount of #IRGC crackdowns can fix. This is the new face of warfare in 2026forget the 'kinetic' strikes; the Treasury's OFAC department is the new frontline. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019564859076006351 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019564859076006351"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The collapse of Ayandeh Bank is a masterclass in how systemic risk travels. It started with bad loans and corruption but the 'Dollar Shortage' ensured there was no rescue. When the CBI started printing money to 'save' the depositors they actually destroyed the currency. Its a reminder that in [----] a bank run isn't just a local problemits the first stage of a regime change. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565123908796577 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565123908796577"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bessents most telling comment isn't about the protests; it's about the 'rats fleeing the ship.' Reports of Iranian elites wiring $1.5 billion in crypto to Dubai in a single 48-hour window show that even the leadership has lost faith in the Rial. When the people are on the streets and the elites are on the blockchain the 'swift conclusion' is already here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565295333978567 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019565295333978567"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Michael Saylor and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are facing their most brutal test yet in [----]. On today's earnings call February [--] [----] Saylor doubled down on his "indefinite horizon" while the companys Q4 [----] financial results revealed the sheer scale of the drawdown. As of this morning Bitcoin has tumbled toward $65000$70000. For a company that spent [----] aggressively buying at much higher prices the math has turned painful. JUST IN: MicroStrategy CEO opens earnings call by advising Bitcoin investors to Hold on and says BTC is the digital transformation of capital hardest and most"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Michael Saylor calling Bitcoin 'ethical money' while sitting on a $12.6B quarterly net loss is the ultimate test of the Bitcoin Standard. In [----] Strategy isn't a software company anymoreits a $54 billion leveraged bet on a single asset. With the stock trading at an mNAV of [----] the market is no longer pricing in a 'Saylor Premium'; it's pricing in a liquidation risk. Is this 'digital transformation' or just a corporate margin call in slow motion https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580663196709230 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580663196709230"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The irony of the Q4 call is that Strategy's actual software business is thriving with subscription revenue up 62%. But when you have $17.4B in Bitcoin write-downs nobody cares about the cloud growth. Saylor is essentially asking shareholders to ignore the 'accounting noise' of a $7.8B paper loss and focus on the 'Bitcoin Yield.' Its a bold strategy in a Warsh Fed era where liquidity is drying up and the $76k average cost looks further away every day. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580795241865378 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019580795241865378"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Before people scream 'liquidation' they should look at the $2.25 billion cash reserve Strategy built in [----]. Saylor and Phong Le have engineered a 'digital fortress' that can survive [---] years of dividend and interest payments even if Bitcoin stays at these levels. They raised $25 billion in a single year to prepare for this exact volatility. The -$7.3B loss is a headline but the $2B reserve is the reality. Saylor isn't just 'holding on'he's dug in for a long winter. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019581006706024769 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019581006706024769"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A third hike in [--] days is a 'Get Out' signal from the exchange. The #CME isn't just managing risk; they are actively breaking the back of the remaining longs. This 20% jump in silver margins will trigger a 'Margin Call Monday' that could see silver test the $65$68 support levels. When the exchange raises the cost of admission this fast the house is telling you THE GAME IS OVER-leveraged. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585296447197373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585296447197373"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The CME Group has just delivered a "Triple-Tap" to the precious metals market. CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver A third MARGIN increase within [--] days. Maintenance increases A 11% increase for gold futures A 20% increase for silver futures This is going into effect after the close of Friday Feb [--] [----] https://t.co/79muikRcbx CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver A third MARGIN increase within [--] days. Maintenance increases A 11% increase for gold futures A 20% increase for silver futures This is going into effect after the close of Friday Feb [--] [----] https://t.co/79muikRcbx"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The #CME is terrified of a systemic failure. With $2 trillion in market cap vanishing across the "Risk-On" sector (Crypto + Metals) since October the exchange is raising the walls to ensure clearinghouses don't get stuck with bad debt"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China isn't just 'buying the dip'; they are breaking the back of Western price discovery. By maintaining a $20+ premium in Shanghai while the COMEX prints $78 they are creating a vacuum that is sucking every physical ounce out of the West. When the 'Rock' (Physical) finally breaks the 'Paper' (COMEX) the re-valuation won't be a 'bounce'it will be a gap into the hundreds. We are watching the first currency war where the weapon isn't a missile but a 1000oz silver bar. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019591545603621103 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019591545603621103"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the 'Crowding Out' effect on steroids. When the Treasury needs to borrow $574 billion in a single quarter (Q1 2026) while the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet theres simply no liquidity left for $100 silver or $120k Bitcoin. The 'crash' in assets is the necessary side effect of the government needing every available dollar to fund the deficit. Danish is right: the bond market is the sun and the rest of the assets are just planets being pulled into its gravity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019594740493058240 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019594740493058240"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The [--] million bpd decline isn't just a number; its a death sentence for 'cheap energy.' In [----] we are finding fewer 'easy' barrels in the Permian or Guyana to replace the ones were losing. Sawans message is clear: if you want to keep the world running at 106M bpd you have to find a new North Sea every couple of years. The 'Net Zero' narrative is colliding with the reality of 6% annual depletion and the math doesn't care about UR politics. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598170121007366 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598170121007366"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sawan is pointing to the 'Invisible CliFF' of [----]. While everyone is talking about a 'supply glut' this year the CEO of Shell is warning that we are losing [--] million bpd to natural decline. If the industry cuts capex because prices are low today we aren't just missing growthwere inviting a catastrophic shortage in [----]. The 6% replenishment rule means that $60 oil is a temporary gift; the structural math says the energy crisis hasn't even begun. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598775375843519 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598775375843519"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"What we are seeing on February [--] [----] is a massive "Geopolitical Hedge" trade that has reached a fever pitch. The record $217 million inflow into the WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil ETF ($CRUD) is the markets way of saying it no longer believes the "Diplomatic Thaw" narrative. While the media was focused on the Oman talks scheduled for tomorrow (Friday Feb 6) the "Smart Money" just bet $217 million that those talks are already dead. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019600258674602307 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019600258674602307"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In the last [--] hours reports surfaced that the U.S. refused to change the location and format of the upcoming Oman talks. Traders interpreted this as the U.S. shifting from "negotiation" to "ultimatum." BREAKING: The WTI Crude Oil ETF $CRUD posted +$217 million in inflows on Tuesday the largest daily intake since the [----] pandemic. This is also the 2nd-highest inflow on record and DOUBLES any other daily high seen over the last [--] years. By comparison the [----] record is https://t.co/hWx1q3UaXs BREAKING: The WTI Crude Oil ETF $CRUD posted +$217 million in inflows on Tuesday the largest daily"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yesterdays API report showed a massive [----] million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories. When you combine a physical shortage with a war risk premium you get the record-breaking inflows Kobeissi is reporting"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"By pricing its flagship Arab Light at a mere +$0.30 premium (approaching parity) with the regional Oman/Dubai benchmark Saudi Aramco is sending a clear signal: the fight for market share has officially overtaken the fight for price support. As of February [--] [----] this is the lowest premium in over five years harkening back to the desperate "liquidity crisis" days of the [----] pandemic. OIL MARKET: Saudi Arabia has again reduced the price of its flagship export grade Arab Light to Asia. For the first time since late [----] state-owned Aramco is selling Arab Light at parity with the regional"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The "Parity" Breakdown In the world of oil "parity" is the ultimate sign of a buyers market. Usually Saudi oil commands a premium because of its reliable delivery and specific quality. +The Trend: This is the third consecutive month of price cuts. Aramco started December with a $1.00 premium dropped to $0.60 in January and has now slashed it to $0.30 for February. +The Competition: Saudi Arabia is being forced to compete with a "Shadow Supply" of discounted oil from sanctioned nations and a massive production surge from the Americas (U.S. Brazil and Guyana). +The Global Cut: Its not just"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Youre spotting the 'Great Re-alignment' of [----]. For three years the market was just a 7-stock pony. Now with $KRE breaking $70 and Industrials hitting 14% gains the market is finally pricing in the 'Main Street' economy. Its a move from 'Virtual Growth' (AI) to 'Vertical Growth' (Infrastructure and Lending). If this rotation sticks it's the most bullish signal for a soft landing we've seen since the pandemic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019609160493465700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019609160493465700"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weve traded the ticker tape for high-speed fiber optics but the 'Fear and Greed' index is still the only one that matters. This 50-year event in gold and silver was the ultimate test of emotional balance. As Livermore said 'The market is never wrongopinions often are.' Those who tried to argue with the tape at $5600 gold are the ones paying for it during this $4600 correction. History isn't repeating; it's just rhyming in a different currency. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019612124952105083 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019612124952105083"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Silver is currently trading at its most 'oversold' level on the RSI since the [----] bear market"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ZeeContrarian1 We are in a "Discovery of Risk" phase. As long as the $VIX is rising alongside faLLing prices the "seLLers" haven't been exhausted yetthey are stiLL in a state of active panic"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"People are still 'paying up' for volatility because the uncertainty around the Fed transition is peak. When the market stops reacting to hawkish headlines and the $VIX starts to drift lower even on a red day that is UR signal. Right now the 'New Sellers' are just getting started as margin calls in silver and crypto spill over into equities. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019614334024884427 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019614334024884427"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"By slashing exposure from 100% to 20% in just [--] hours Roy is treating the "Warsh Shock" not as a dip to be blindly bought but as a structural regime change that requires a clean slate. His remaining 20% "Lifeboat" is telling. Hes avoiding the bloated Mega-Cap Tech names and sticking to the "Engine Room" of the [----] economy: $GEV (GE Vernova): The pure-play energy transition leader (Nuclear/Grid). $GLW (Corning): The "Glass" for the AI/Fiber optic buildout. $XBI (Biotech): High-beta innovation that usually bottoms first. $IWM / $MDY (Small/Mid-Caps): Betting on domestic breadth over the "Mag"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"By holding $GLW and $GEV Mattox is staying tethered to the two most 'un-cancellable' trends of 2026: the massive expansion of the U.S. electrical grid and the physical hardware of AI. Hes essentially ditched the 'Paper Assets' (Crypto/Silver) and kept the 'Steel and Glass' assets. Moving to 20% exposure means he doesn't need to be right about the bottom today; he just needs to be liquid when the $IWM (Small Caps) finally stabilizes. We moved from 100% invested to 50% invested on Tuesday to 20% invested on Wednesday as the market comes under selling pressure. Avoiding the meltdown ensures you"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'reseT' is where the millionaires are made. While the retail crowd is mourning the $121 silver peak the professionals are building their 'Watchlists of Winners.' We are currently in the 'Unwind' phase. The goal isn't to buy the first falling knife but to identify the stocks showing massive Relative Strength against this [----] S&P level. When the indexes finally reclaim their 21-day EMAs the names that didn't break their bases will be the first ones to 52-week highs. Corrections should excite you They clear out the chop and excess and reset bases They create the best opportunity periods for"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is pure 'Reminiscences' logic. A correction like this is a gift because it provides a 'Clean Slate.' The [----] 'AI/Crypto' theme was getting exhausted and sloppy; this crash is creating the 'Stage [--] Bases' for the H2 [----] rally. We need to see higher lows and contracting volume before the 'excitement' can turn into actual buy orders. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019618930025701716 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019618930025701716"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@zerohedge When everyone is on one side of the boat it only takes a small nudgelike the Warsh nominationto capsize IT. This isn't a market crash; it's a Momentum Liquidation. The 'once in [---] years' math is irrelevant because the machines all exit the same door at the same time"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 'Grand Illusion' of risk management. If 4-sigma events are happening every few years the 'Normal Distribution' models used by Wall Street are oFFicially garbage. We are living in a 'Fat Tail' world where leverage and high-frequency algorithms have turned 'impoSSible' crashes into regular oCCuRRences. If you're using 100-year math to trade [----] volatility you're the exit liquidity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019625599204040809 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019625599204040809"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A "Bear Market" or an "Economic Collapse" doesn't start with hundreds of stocks hitting new highs. Instead we are seeing a violent rotation from the "Paper Wealth" of [----] into the "Real Economy" of [----]. The Dow Divergence: Yesterday while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 1.5% the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually rose 0.5% (about [---] points) led by a massive 8% surge in Amgen ($AMGN). New High Leaders: The companies leading the charge to new highs aren't the AI darlings but the "Blue Chips": Walmart ($WMT) Exxon Mobil ($XOM) and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ). The "Engine Room" Strength: U.S."
X Link 2026-02-06T04:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'Batten Down the Hatches' crowd is looking at the wrong ticker. While Bitcoin and Silver are having a '1980 moment' the NYSE is having a '1995 moment.' Having [---] stocks at 52-week highs while the index falls is the ultimate 'Healthy Rotation.' It means the bull market is finally shedding its AI training wheels and moving into Industrials Banks and Retail. If the world were ending Walmart and Exxon wouldn't be hitting all-time highs today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019626883864752248 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019626883864752248"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why is the "safe haven" behaving like a meme stock +The "Warsh" Reversal: Gold was priced for "lower for longer" rates and a weakening dollar. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Fed on January 30th flipped that script overnight triggering a 21% collapse from the $5600 peak. +Margin Call Cascades: As prices fell the CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver. This forced leveraged "paper gold" traders to liquidate their positions to stay solvent turning a correction into a "volatility explosion." +Crowded Longs: By late January gold was one of the most "crowded" trades in"
X Link 2026-02-06T09:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'coiled spring' is being wound tighter with every call option bought at $73. Were in a classic 'Negative Gamma' regime where the market makers are eFFectively short. If the Oman negotiations provide even a hint of de-escalation today the scramble to cover those call hedges will turn this 'rebound' into a vertical moonshot. The volatility isn't over; its just changing direction. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019713260660961289 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019713260660961289"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"OLearys bomb isn't just about Bitcoin going upits about everything else going to zero. His point is that the CLARITY Act creates a 'Gated Community' for $BTC and $ETH. Institutional capital won't touch the 'poo-poo coins' he mentions. This legislation will be a 'Capital Vacuum' that sucks liquidity out of the [-----] altcoins and consolidates it into the only two assets with a legal stamp of approval. The 'Biggest Inflow' will also be the 'Biggest Filter'. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019715885024297286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019715885024297286"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Whether its Schiff ignoring a 40% silver dump or the 'Hyperliquid' crowd ignoring their own slowing volume the data is clear: we are in a #Liquidity #Vacuum. Every asset is being repriced because the 'Easy Money' era of [----] is over. Turning down the emotions means realizing that silver and Bitcoin are currently THE SAME TRADEleveraged bets on global liquidity. If you can't handle a 50% draw-down in one you shouldn't be celebrating it in the other. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717076978471321 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717076978471321"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PKycek is right to call out the hypocrisy. The drop in exchange onboardings wasn't a 'Binance problem'; it was a 'Cost of Capital' problem. When the Fed (under Warsh) signals a smaller balance sheet the speculative fire loses its oxygen. Smart money stays quiet while the 'X influencers' scream about manipulation. Manipulation on X is hitting new highs. Peter Schiff is again calling Bitcoin dead after a 53% drop in [--] months while a 48% crash in silver in just [--] days doesnt bother him at all. Crypto bros trash Binance because new onboardings were falling in [----]. Funny how they forget"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the 'Emotional Audit' we need. Peter SchiFFs bias is legendary but the 'Crypto Bros' are just as guilty of selective memory. Hyperliquid and Binance are both feeling the same pinch of a 'Risk-OFF' world. The move here isn't to pick a side in the Schiff vs. Saylor war but to watch the $63000 BTC support and the $71 Silver pivot. If youre jumping narratives youre just chasing the tail of a 4-sigma momentum crash. STAY GROUNDED IN THE DATA. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717785903890492 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019717785903890492"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$60000 was the 'Trap Door.' While the bears were busy typing their $40K obituaries the smart money was busy sniping the $60008 bottom. This 8% bounce isn't just noise; its a 'rejection of lower prices.' We just saw one of the largest leverage flushes in crypto history. If we close the daily candle above $65K the 'Miner Bankruptcy' scare will be remembered as the ultimate bear trap of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019718559065125062 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019718559065125062"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CUANDO "SALUDABLE" SIGNIFIC LIQUIDACIN Lunes: AMD -17% post-"earnings slidos" Martes: Software -11% peor desde [----] Mircoles: Google $185B capex IA accin cae Jueves: Amazon $200B capex -11% Viernes: Bitcoin $60K -40% desde octubre JPMorgan Private Bank: "Muy saludable. Ampliacin de recuperacin." Mi$ sistema$ MIENTRAS TANTO ganando. La diferencia no es informacin. Es procesamiento. Tu gestor puede mostrar track record auditado con estas mtricas"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Spot on Javier. This is a classic case of trying to fight biology with policy. Even if the Argentina deal doubles imports we're talking about moving from 2% to 4% of total supply. Meanwhile the US herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s. You cant 'import' UR way out of a 3-year cattle cycle overnight. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019862507595198796 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019862507595198796"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The irony is palpable: an 'America First' administration trying to subsidize Argentine ranchers to fix a domestic supply shock. The 6.1% lease rates we're seeing elsewhere (SILVER) show the physical market is TighT across 'all' commodiTIES. Beef isn't an 'import' problem; it's a 'liquidation' problem. The market is pricing in the reality that the herd isn't coming back in [----]. CHART OF THE DAY: Last year President Trump promised lower beef prices (in part with more imports from Argetina). So far he has failed. After a brief drop in Oct-Nov following his comments US live cattle wholesale"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The timing isn't accidental. With the USD gaining strength under the new US admin and the Yuan under pressure this isn't about 'fraud'its about capital flight. RWAs were the last 'invisible' bridge out of the RMB. By banning offshore issuance Beijing is essentially building a digital Berlin Wall for the Yuan. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019870330513420486 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019870330513420486"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Don't ignore the irony: The PBOC starts paying interest on the e-CNY (Digital Yuan) the same week they ban 'unauthorized' stablecoins. They aren't killing digital assets; they are killing competition. Its a forced migration to state-controlled ledger tech. CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON CRYPTO Chinas central bank has tightened crypto rules banning domestic and controlled overseas entities from issuing virtual currencies without approval. Authorities reaffirm that crypto is not legal tender and label related business activities as CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON CRYPTO Chinas central bank has tightened crypto"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Hunting OFFshore Subsidiaries The PBOC has closed the "Singapore/Hong Kong loophole." +The Old Way: Chinese firms would set up shell companies in crypto-friendly hubs to issue tokens or stablecoins. +The New Reality: The ban now explicitly covers controlled overseas entities. If you are a Chinese citizen or firm running a crypto project in Dubai or Singapore you are now in direct violation of domestic law. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019871519422202198 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019871519422202198"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The PBOC sees unapproved stablecoins as the 2020s version of 'Shadow Banking.' In [----] they fought wealth management products; in [----] they are fighting the 'programmable yuan.' If they cant audit the smart contract they won't let it touch the economy"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its a historic pivot Juan. The spread between Argentine and Brazilian 10-year yields is narrowing for the right reasons. Argentina is paying down debt with a primary surplus while Brazil is eFFectively borrowing to pay interest. For the first time in decades 'Argentine Risk' feels like a calculated macro bet rather than a blind gamble. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019874992469717432 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019874992469717432"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its less of a 'pivot to a trend' and more of a 'highest and best use' of energy assets. Bitcoin miners are essentially just power-substation owners with GPUs. In a [----] bear market hashing for $0.05/kWh is charity; leasing that same power to a LLM for $2.00/kWh is just fiduciary duty. The 'Bitcoin company' was the chrysalis; the Data Center is the butterfly. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019876558778032292 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019876558778032292"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The rebrand to Keel Infrastructure is a direct play for institutional flow. They know the 'Miner' ticker is a scarlet letter in this [----] bear market. By redomiciling to Delaware and changing the name they are trying to trick the algos into treating them like Equinix instead of Riot. Bitfarms one of the worlds largest Bitcoin miners saw its shares surge over 25% after abandoning its Bitcoin company identity and doubling down on AI. Almost every company that got into Bitcoin did it to prop up a dying stock and lure in investors. Now that Bitcoin is in a Bitfarms one of the worlds largest"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When Bitcoin hit $60k yesterday most pure-play miners became cash-flow negative. Bitfarms/Keel just showed the market a 'Trap Door' out of the crypto winter. Expect $MARA and $CLSK to follow with even more aggressive #AI #rebrands by Q3"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Anatomy of the Feb [----] "Vol-Shock" +The Tech/AI De-Rating ($NDX): The catalyst was Amazon's shock guidance of $200 billion in AI Capex (vs. the $146 billion expected). This "Capex Panic" caused investors to realize that AI isn't just a margin boosterit's an incredibly expensive arms race. The 4% intraday move was exacerbated by Anthropic's new financial research model which sent legacy software stocks into a tailspin. +The Silver "Crime Scene" (22% Drop): Silver's 22% crash was a classic Margin Trap. The CME Group hiked margins from 11% to 15% effectively overnight forcing leveraged"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'Trillions' aren't retail #FOMO; its the 401(k) and Pension allocations. We are moving from 'speculative inflows' to 'programmatic inflows.' Once the #DCIA defines Bitcoin as a digital commodity a 1% default allocation in retirement target-date funds becomes the biggest supply-shock in history. Its the 'Gold ETF moment' on steroids. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020082423418007783 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020082423418007783"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 'Democrats said it will pass' part is the most bullish signal here. If they can move past the party-line vote in the Ag Committee and reconcile with the Banking Committee's bill were looking at a signature by Q2. Scaramucci knows that the 'Front-Running' starts the second the 60-vote threshold in the Senate looks secure. We are in the 'Quiet Period' before the storm. BILLIONAIRE ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI JUST BROKE THE BULL METER ON LIVE TV: TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS ARE WAITING TO BUY BITCOIN AND IT ALL STARTS TO FLOW IN WHEN MARKET STRUCTURE BILL PASSES. DEMOCRATS SAID IT WILL PASS THIS WILL BE THE"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "Sovereign Reserve" Connection (Macro) Don't forget the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve #context. If the market structure bill passes it provides the legal framework for the U.S. Treasury to officially manage the $29 billion in BTC they already hold. @Scaramucci is essentially front-running the moment Bitcoin stops being a 'risk asset' and starts being 'U.S. National Infrastructure.'" https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020084400017338536 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020084400017338536"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "Market Structure Bill" hes referring to is the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (DCIA) which just cleared a historic hurdle last week"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its the 'Martin Pill' in action Nick. Every nominee looks like a loyalist until they sit at that mahogany table and realize their only true constituent is the bond market. Warsh might want to help Trump but if the 10-year yield spikes because hes shrinking the balance sheet too fast hell have to choose between the Presidents tweets and a sovereign debt crisis. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020085816920343013 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020085816920343013"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The real 'ghost' in the room is the Fed staFF. Like Powell Warsh is a lawyer/markets guy in a building run by [---] Ph.D. economists. If he tries to force 'regime change' on their inflation models the internal friction could be just as loud as the public friction with the White House. Hes fighting a two-front war from Day [--]. Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count on. Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected. The ghosts of Burns Miller and Martin loom over Trumps choice of Kevin Warsh. https://t.co/Y1YXHeddVl Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Trump thinks hes buying a 'dovish' Fed but Warshs obsession with a smaller balance sheet is the most hawkish thing we've seen in a decade. You can't have 'A+++++' growth if the Fed is dumping Treasuries back onto a market thats already choking on $36 trillion in debt. The ghosts are already whispering. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020086436087689319 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020086436087689319"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Warsh Paradox: Hawk or Dove Warsh is a unique "market guy" nominee who doesn't have a Ph.D. in economics much like Jerome Powell. The "ouch" for Trump might come from Warsh's two-pillar strategy: +Lowering Rates: He aligns with Trump here arguing that AI productivity gains mean we can have lower rates without inflation. +Shrinking the Balance Sheet: He is a fierce critic of "Quantitative Easing" and "bloated" Fed bond holdings. This "Quantitative Tightening" could push long-term mortgage and bond rates up even if he cuts the short-term Fed funds rate."
X Link 2026-02-07T10:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Ghosts of Fed Past +William McChesney Martin (The "Punchbowl" Ghost): He famously said the Feds job is to "take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going." He defied Truman and LBJ leading to some of the most heated Oval OFFice confrontations in history. +Arthur Burns (The "Pressure" Ghost): Nixon leaned on Burns to keep rates low for the [----] election. Burns complied but the result was the "Great Inflation" of the 70s. He became the poster child for what happens when a Fed Chair doesn't stand up to a President. +G. William Miller (The "Incompetence" Ghost): Carters pick was seen as"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MARA & $CLSK"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The $58B tag is the headline but the 'sub-$40 breakeven' inventory is the real story. In a Feb [----] market where oil prices are under pressure from a strong USD and global surplus DVN-CTRA just built a bunker. They aren't chasing growth anymore; they are chasing the lowest cost-of-supply in the Lower [--]. ICYMI -- A $58-billion all-stock merger between @DevonEnergy and @CoterraEnergy will create one of the largest U.S. #shale operators and a dominant Delaware basin position. https://t.co/Nksr6ZnPTG ICYMI -- A $58-billion all-stock merger between @DevonEnergy and @CoterraEnergy will create one"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$DVN + $CTRA"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It's fascinating to see #AI as a primary justification for the merger synergies. Integrating the technology platforms of two shale giants to optimize drilling in the Delaware isn't just an 'eFFiciency' playits a survival play. If you aren't using LLMs for subsurface modeling in [----] you're leaving 15% IRR on the table. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310442564894914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310442564894914"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This merger confirms the 'Fewer Bigger Better' trend is the only playbook left for U.S. shale. With Devon moving HQ to Houston and swallowing Coterras Marcellus assets theyve created a multi-basin giant that can pivot between oil and gas depending on where the data center demand is highest. -Who's the next mid-cap target in the crosshairs https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310444242563502 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310444242563502"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The $58 billion Devon-Coterra merger (announced February [--] 2026) isn't just a big dealits a tactical retreat into "quality" as the shale era enters its maturity. By combining they are essentially creating a "Delaware Basin Fortress" designed to withstand the volatile [----] energy market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311695529275823 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311695529275823"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. The "Delaware Basin" Fortress The combined entity (which will keep the Devon Energy name) becomes a top-three Permian producer trailing only ExxonMobil and Chevron. +The Scale: Pro forma production exceeds [---] million Boe/day. +The "Prize" Inventory: They now hold the industrys largest inventory of sub-$40 breakeven wells. This is the ultimate insurance policy against the current slide in oil prices. +Contiguous Acreage: The overlap in Lea County New Mexico allows for "longer laterals" (3-mile wells) which significantly lowers the cost per barrel."
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. The AI-Driven "Synergy" ($1 Billion) Management isn't just talking about cutting oFFice costs. Theyve specifically highlighted AI-driven optimization as a core pillar of the $1 billion in annual synergies expected by [----]. +Subsurface AI: Using combined data from both companies to predict "frac hits" and optimize well spacing in the increasingly crowded Delaware Basin. +Capital Discipline: They are targeting a reinvestment rate of 50% prioritizing a massive $5 billion+ share buyback program and a $0.315/share quarterly dividend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311699086037325"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. The "Gas Optionality" Hedge While Devon was oil-weighted Coterra brings the Marcellus Shale (gas) to the table. In [----] this is a strategic masterstroke: +Data Center Demand: The merger positions Devon to supply the massive "power load" growth from AI data centers and U.S. LNG export terminals. +The "Warsh" Dollar: With a strong USD making oil exports more expensive having a diversified gas portfolio provides a domestic revenue cushion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311700885422473 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311700885422473"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Great research. Its a classic reminder that while the 61.8% is the 'Golden Ratio' the 50% is the 'Psychological Ratio.' Its where the market decides if a move was a breakout or just a fake-out"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'SaaSpocalypse' is the market finally admitting that 'Enterprise Software' isn't a defensive sector anymore. If UR product is a wrapper for a process that an LLM agent now automates for free that 'generous equity cushion' is just a high-priced ticket on a sinking ship. Distressed managers are hunting for firms with an actual data moat not just a recurring billing cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020335617792422278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020335617792422278"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Managers touting the 'equity cushion' are the same ones who ignored the rising PIK (Payment-in-Kind) toggles last year. When $18B drops to distressed levels in [--] weeks its not a correctionits a liquidity event. The real test comes when these 'generous' sponsors decide its cheaper to toss the keys to the creditors than to write another check. $18 billion in tech loans dropped to distressed levels in four weeks. Total distressed pile now $47 billion. But don't worry private credit managers assure us the equity cushion is "generous." https://t.co/qkhV6kIFJx $18 billion in tech loans dropped to"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "SaaSpocalypse" Trigger The primary driver isn't just interest rates; its the AI #displacement #trade. +The Existential Threat: Lenders are realizing that many "legacy" SaaS firms (especially in customer experience ad-tech and coding services) are facing a structural decline. If an AI agent can perform the task of a $50/month software seat the borrowers revenue modeland their ability to service debtevaporates. +The Distressed Pile: The total tech distressed debt (loans trading with yields 10% over SOFR) jumped from roughly $29B in early January to $46.9B this week. +High-Profile Names:"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "Equity Cushion" Debate When private credit managers say the equity cushion is "generous" they mean that the private equity sponsors (the owners) have put in 4050% of the capital which theoretically protects the lenders from losses. +The Counter-Argument: Junk bond investors are skeptical. If the underlying business model is being disrupted by AI a 50% equity cushion can vanish in a matter of months. +Liability Management (LMEs): We are seeing a wave of "Aggressive Liability Management" where sponsors are trying to "kick the can" by offering creditors worse terms to save their own equity"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its a brutal case of relative weakness. While the rest of the Communication Services sector is being buoyed by the AI trade $NFLX and $SPOT are acting like theyre in a diFFerent index entirely. Losing the 200-day SMA synchronously is usually the 'death knell' for the momentum crowd. Were oFFicially in 'Show Me' territory for these two. $NFLX and $SPOT both peaked and rolled over at the same time & lost the 200-sma at the same time. Both are streaming media stocks in the communication services sector. I don't spend much time on the why's just what happens on the charts. https://t.co/JT2QGnEcMG"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Technical Reality: Why the 200-SMA Matters In the [----] market breaking the 200-day SMA isn't just a "dip"; it's a regime change: +Institutional Liquidation: When "Blue Chip" names like these break the 200-day on volume it typically triggers systematic selling from large-cap funds that are mandated to hold only "up-trending" assets. +The Communication Services Divergence: The sector ( $XLC ) is actually being held up by AI giants like Alphabet and Meta. The fact that $NFLX and $SPOT are breaking down while the sector remains stable indicates a rotation out of "Subscription Streaming" and"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The pivot to the 'Everything Exchange' (Stocks + Crypto) is the real [----] story Brian. While people obsess over the Feb [--] liquidations they're missing the fact that Coinbase is built to survive the 4-year cycle by eating the traditional brokerage model. Updating the financial system isn't just about crypto; it's about puTTing the legacy stock market on-chain. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020360147495751966 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020360147495751966"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Shipping through a bear market is Coinbase's superpower. The most bullish thing right now isn't $BTC priceits the growth of #Base as the default rail for AI agents. If [----] is the year AI starts transacting via stablecoins the 'financial system update' happens behind the scenes while the retail crowd is still looking at the charts. @brian_armstrong The pivot to the 'Everything Exchange' (Stocks + Crypto) is the real [----] story Brian. While people obsess over the Feb [--] liquidations they're missing the fact that Coinbase is built to survive the 4-year cycle by eating the traditional brokerage"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The decision to pull support from the 'bad' version of the Clarity Act shows Coinbase is the only one willing to fight for a level playing field. $78M in the [----] midterm war-chest says crypto isn't just 'staying'its going to be the defining policy issue of the year"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "Everything Exchange" Strategy #Coinbase isn't just a crypto exchange anymore. Since December [----] theyve been aggressively rolling out 24/5 Stock Trading and Tokenized Equities to US users. +The Goal: To become the "Apple of Finance"the single app where you manage your 401(k) trade $TSLA and stake $SOL. +The "Eat Financial Services" Evidence: As of early [----] [--] of the world's top [--] banks (including JPMorgan and PNC) have integrated Coinbases white-label infrastructure to oFFer crypto services to their own clients. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361181798547457"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$COIN "Shipping Through Conditions" Despite the Feb [----] bear market the product pipeline is full: +Roadmap Adds: Just this week (Feb 6-7) Coinbase added Superform (UP) DeepBook (DEEP) and Walrus (WAL) to the listing roadmap. +Base Scaling: The Base chain has become the dominant Layer [--] for AI-agent transactions which @brian_armstrong sees as the next massive growth vector where "AI agents use crypto wallets to pay each other." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361786772316645 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361786772316645"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1.2 is the 'Sweet Spot.' Its high enough to allow Strategy to keep issuing equity to buy more $BTC (the 'Bitcoin Yield' engine) but low enough that the valuation doesn't feel like a bubble. If it holds here through the weekend it means the 'smart money' just finished their re-accumulation. mNAV on Strategy is [---] and holding. Its too early to declare victory yet but if this holds we are back in business. mNAV on Strategy is [---] and holding. Its too early to declare victory yet but if this holds we are back in business"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Mooch Bull-Meter is back in the green [---] mNAV is the line in the sand. As long as Strategy trades at a premium the infinite loop of 'debt-to-BTC' stays alive. This isn't just a bounce; its the market admitting that Bitcoin on a balance sheet is more valuable than Bitcoin in a cold wallet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020372697402798584 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020372697402798584"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When @Scaramucci mentions mNAV and "Strategy" he is referencing the most aggressive financial crossover story of early 2026: the valuation of MicroStrategy ( $MSTR ) relative to its Bitcoin holdings. As of February [--] [----] the "mNAV" (Market-to-Net Asset Value) multiple is the heartbeat of the Bitcoin treasury trade. Scaramucci is essentially saying that the "premium" on the stock is finally stabilizing after the brutal market flush on February [--]. -What is mNAV and Why [---] Matters The mNAV is a ratio that compares the companys Market Cap (or Enterprise Value) to the Total Value of its Bitcoin"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
""Unrealized losses are not a strategy failure. Theyre the cost of conviction. With Bitcoin briefly dipping below $70000 the market is once again stress-testing high-conviction holders. Michael Saylors Strategy currently holds [------] $BTC valued at roughly $49.9B at spot prices. With an average entry around $76000 this translates into an unrealized drawdown of $4.4B. Lets be precise: +This is paper loss not forced selling. +This is volatility not insolvency. +This is what happens when long-term theses meet short-term markets. Bitcoin was never designed to be comfortable. It was designed to"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Farleys NYSE background is showing here. In traditional finance if you don't have a sustainable P&L you get acquired or liquidated. Crypto has dodged this reality for years through token inflation and 'hopium' valuations. In [----] with the [---] mNAV floor on $MSTR and the $NDX 200-day breakdown the market is demanding real businesses not just 'cool tech.' 🚨CRYPTO SECTOR CONSOLIDATION INCOMING Bullish CEO Tom Farley says weaker crypto projects will be snapped up by larger firms as the industry wakes up to the fact that many companies have products not businesses. He said the consolidation"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As the CEO of Bullish (and former President of the NYSE) Farley isn't just an observer; he is actively positioning his exchange to be the primary "consolidator" in a market that is finally moving from speculation to infrastructure. The "Product vs. Business" Trap Farleys core thesis is that [--------] created a "zombie" class of crypto companies: +The "Product" Companies: These are protocols or apps that solve a single technical problem (e.g. a new bridge or a niche DEX) but have no sustainable revenue model no regulatory moat and no path to institutional adoption. +The "Business" Companies:"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why [----] is the "Great Shakeout" Farley noted that high valuations kept these "products" alive longer than they deserved. In February [----] the game has changed: +Liquidity Replacement Cost: Acquiring an existing project is now often cheaper than building from scratch. Large firms are looking to "buy" users and compliance licenses that smaller firms can no longer afford to maintain. +The "Bullish" Momentum: Farley just reported (Feb [--] 2026) that Bullish's institutional options platform surpassed $4 billion in open interest making them the #2 global exchange for $BTC options. With $92.5 million"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The G10 bounce looks like a 'head fake' driven by the Warsh headline but the #EM tape doesn't lie. If the Dollar can't catch a bid against the $BRL or $MXN while the Nasdaq is dropping 4% it means the 'Safe Haven' status of the Greenback is eroding. Were seeing a structural shift where the world is no longer funding the US deficit at any price. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020383727881228678 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020383727881228678"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The #EM resilience is particularly interesting given the ongoing tariFF threats. Usually EM gets crushed when the US talks trade war but in Feb [----] they are holding firm. This suggests the market has already 'priced in' the worst of the protectionism and is now focused on the fact that the Fed is the only central bank with meaningful r00m To cuT. The best leading indicator for Dollar direction is how it trades against EM. The Dollar bounced back a bit since the Warsh nomination but this was vs the G10 (blue). It remains near its lows vs EM (black). This is a sign more Dollar weakness is"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The G10 vs. EM #Divergence (Feb [----] Context) +The G10 "Yield Trap": The bounce vs. the Euro and Yen is a reaction to Kevin Warsh's reputation as a balance-sheet hawk. Markets are betting he will shrink the Fed's portfolio which naturally props up the USD against other "low-yield" developed currencies like the Yen (which is still dealing with Japan's election uncertainty on Feb 8). +The EM Resilience: The fact that the USD remains near lows against EM currencies (like the BRL MXN and INR) suggests that the "Global Reflation" trade is still alive. EM currencies are often the "canary in the"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"That $17.4B gross short is the ultimate 'Pain Trade' for February. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the IEEPA TariFFs this month we could see a violent short squeeze as speculators are forced to buy back the USD to hedge trade-war risk. Hansens data suggests the market is leaning way too far into the 'Weak Dollar' narrative while the policy risks in DC are still peaking. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020463750776533108 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020463750776533108"
X Link 2026-02-08T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Commitment of Traders (COT) data (for the week ending Feb [--] 2026) reveals a massive "Positioning Powder Keg." While the headlines focus on the USDs modest rebound following the Warsh nomination the smart money (Managed Money/Hedge Funds) doubled down on their bearish bets. The fact that the gross short across the eight IMM currency futures has hit a six-month high of $17.4 billion suggests that the market is viewing the current Dollar bounce not as a new trend but as a "Short Squeeze" in a structural bear market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020471248220766367"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. The "Crowded Short" Paradox Speculators are eFFectively beTTing that the Warsh Hawkishness is a mirage. +The "Wait & See" Strategy: Despite the 100+ bps spike in the 10Y Treasury yield over the last month funds are still heavily net-long the Euro (equivalent to $23.9 billion at the start of the year). +The Yen Factor: With Japans Lower House elections today (Feb 8) the Yen short-covering is the only thing keeping the USD afloat. If the ruling coalition consolidates power as expected speculators might resume JPY-funded carry trades putting more pressure on the USD."
X Link 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. Emerging Markets (#EM) as the Anchor This COT data validates @robin_j_brooks observation that the Dollar is failing against EM currencies. +Real Yield Dominance: Brazil is currently offering a 10.7% real rate (15% Selic vs 4.3% inflation) making it a vacuum for global capital. +The "Safe Dollar" Exit: As Convera noted the Dollar is losing its status as a "global shock absorber." Even when U.S. macro data beats expectations the COT report shows speculators are using every rally to aDD to their $17.4 billion short pile. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020471253463666741"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"You read that rightits Abenomics on steroids but without the 'Third Arrow' of structural reform. Takaichi is doubling down on the 'Heroine Cult' popularity to bypass fiscal hawks. If she uses this super-majority to force the BoJ into permanent yield curve control we aren't just looking at a 'Takaichi trade' we're looking at the potential end-game for the Yen. Sanae Takaichi sought and will get a clear mandate today from Japans electorate to print money to keep prices down. You read that right Sanae Takaichi sought and will get a clear mandate today from Japans electorate to print money to"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'mandate' is clear but the Bond Vigilantes are already voting. JGB 10Y yields hitting 2% is the market saying 'enough.' Takaichi wants a 'responsible active fiscal policy' but theres nothing responsible about a [--] trillion food tax cut funded by more debt in a rising rate environment. The BoJ is officially the most uncomfortable seat in global finance right now. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020477445648822411 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020477445648822411"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Todays landslide victory for Sanae Takaichi (February [--] 2026) is the ultimate endorsement of "Sanaenomics"a policy that has left traditional economists and the currency markets in a state of absolute vertigo. The exit polls (predicting up to [---] seats) give her the "super majority" she needs to execute a fiscal plan that is quite literally an aTTempt to fight inflation by throwing a $135 billion "money bomb" at it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020478811171668177 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020478811171668177"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Sanaenomics Paradox: "Printing to Save" Takaichis logic breaks from the traditional "hawk vs. dove" mold: +The "Mandate": She argues that the only way to "keep prices down" for the average voter is to aggressively subsidize the costs of living. +The Tools: This includes a [--] trillion stimulus package the abolition of gasoline taxes and a controversial 2-year suspension of the 10% food consumption tax (a [--] trillion hit to revenue). +The Funding: This is the "you read that right" part. In a country with debt exceeding 250% of GDP she plans to fund these tax cuts and subsidies through new"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"⚖ Assessing the Bet: Potential Outcomes for USD Shorts The performance of those $17.4B USD short positions depends on which policy forcegovernment spending or central bank tighteningwins out in the near term. +The "Genius" Scenario (Delayed BOJ Hikes): This occurs if Takaichi's win is interpreted as a move toward fiscal dominance. If markets believe her stimulus agenda will force the BOJ to keep policy accommodative for longer USD/JPY could retest or break above [---]. In this case the existing USD shorts would suFFer lo$$e$ as the yen weakens further. +The "Long Way Down" Scenario (Forced BOJ"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As of February [--] [----] Bitcoin is undergoing its first major stress test since the [----] "Mania Phase" peaked at $126210 in October. The $65000 level hes watching is crucialit represents the high-volume support zone established during the [----] breakout and the current 50% "drawdown floor.""
X Link 2026-02-08T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Psychology of the "Half-Back" Correction +The $126k Euphoria: At the October peak the $1M price targets were fueled by the "Institutional Tsunami" and the passing of the GENIUS Act. When sentiment is that high risk management is often discarded. +The $63k Reality: This past Thursday (February [--] 2026) BTC actually dipped briefly to $63000its lowest level in over a year. The "Calls for $0" are a predictable reaction to the $19B liquidation event. +The "Mean Reversion" Play: A 50% correction in a bull market is often the "healthiest" thing that can happen. It flushes out the leverage (like"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its a baTTle between the 'Warsh Narrative' and the 'CTA Algos.' The market wants to be bullish on the Fed Chair nominEE but the systematic triggers have already bEEn pulled. The $33B in estimated selling this week means we nEEd a massive 'Buy the Dip' catalyst just to stay flat. Watch the 13F drop on Feb 14thats the first real chance for the fundamental buyers to outweigh the machines. STOCK SELL-OFF NOT OVER GOLDMAN TRADERS SAY Goldman Sachs warns that US stocks could face more selling this week driven by trend-following funds known as CTAs which have already hit sell triggers in the S&P"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This report from Goldman Sachs highlights the "plumbing" issues of the [----] market. While retail investors often focus on headlines like the Kevin Warsh nomination or the Greenland mining disputes the real price action this week is being driven by the math-based selling of CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors). As of February [--] [----] the S&P [---] is hovering near the critical [----] support level. If this level fails the Goldman "Gamma and CTA" loop could turn a standard correction into a significant rOUT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020553896339411002"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A strong Takaichi mandate is fundamentally Yen-negative. Markets are already pricing in the 'Takaichi Trade': looser fiscal bias + firmer growth expectations = USD/JPY [---]. The challenge is that shes printing money to fight inflation which is essentially fighting fire with gasoline. The 'limitless' US alliance might eventually require a joint intervention just to prevent a total $JPY collapse. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020561078472581591 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020561078472581591"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its not even a conspiracy anymoreits the Lummis-Warsh playbook. The bill literally proposes selling gold to buy BTC. The Jan [--] gold crash looks like the 'Institutional Exit' before the legislation hits the floor. If the US starts rotating even 1% of its gold into Bitcoin the '$1M BTC' calls from October won't look like hyperbole; they'll look like a conservative estimate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020564980098019464 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020564980098019464"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Warsh calls Bitcoin the 'canary in the coal mine.' If hes the one holding the cage hes going to use that signal to manage the dollar's decline. Rotating from a 'passive' reserve (gold) to an 'active' monitoring reserve (BTC) gives the Fed a level of real-time market data theyve never had. The 'suppression' were seeing at $65k is just a massive re-accumulation phase before the regime shift. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020565739107958826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020565739107958826"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"-Why the Market is "Dull" Right Now +The Valuation Ceiling: With the S&P [---] having recently touched all-time highs near [----] investors are hesitant to pay a higher multiple given the 3.50% Fed Funds rate and sticky 2.7% #CPI inflation. +The Earnings StandoFF: While 75% of companies have beaten Q4 earnings expectations the "Magnificent 7" are facing fatigue. As the StoneX report noted traders are rotating out of high-multiple AI stocks and into sectors like Energy (+19.5% YTD) and Industrials. This "inner churn" keeps the overall index level unchanged.+1 +Institutional Hedging: The $17.4"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"On Hartnetts 0-to-10 scale anything above [---] is an "Extreme Bullish" reading that historically triggers a 100% hit-rate sell signal for global equities. At [---] the market has entered what Hartnett calls "Peak Everything": peak positioning peak liquidity and peak inequality. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020629346721927263 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020629346721927263"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Morgan Stanley is hitting the nail on the head. While the S&P [---] is fighting 'Short Gamma' and CTA sell-triggers at [----] #LatAm is the only region with a 'fresh' investment cycle. The shift from consumption to FDI-led growth means this isn't just a commodity pumpits a structural re-rating. Were moving from the 'Magnificent 7' to the 'Resourceful 7' in the South. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020632196839539161 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020632196839539161"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 'Early Innings' call makes sense when you look at the Multipolar World theme. Mexico & Brazil are effectively the 'neutral ground' for the US-China trade war. By positioning as the 'safe' supply chain alternative #latam is capturing the CAPEX that used to go to SE Asia. Its the ultimate hedge against the '9.6 Sell Signal' Hartnett is seeing in US tech. LatAm's bull market is still in its early inning. From Morgan Stanley Research. https://t.co/3SRLNoaznR LatAm's bull market is still in its early inning. From Morgan Stanley Research. https://t.co/3SRLNoaznR"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "Early Innings" #LatAm Thesis Morgan Stanleys [----] outlook shifts Latin America from a "trade play" to a "structural investment" story. They argue that while the U.S. market is "late-cycle" (BofA's [---] signal) #LatAm is just beginning its multi-year expansion. +The FDI Supercycle: The "Multipolar World" is the top theme for [----]. LatAm is the primary beneficiary as multinationals prioritize supply chain control over low costs moving factories from Asia to Mexico & Brazil. +The Monetary Tailwind: With the Fed expected to cut 50bps by mid-2026 the Dollar softening typically triggers a"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The move from 110m to 112m isn't about cars; its about the Petrochemical tailwind. Vitol sees the 'East of Suez' demand for plastics and synthetics as a secular growth story that the West is ignoring. Even if we all drive Teslas the world is still going to be wrapped in oil-based products. This [----] update is the 'death of the bear case' for long-term oil majors. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020817403089703399 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020817403089703399"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'liTTle aTTention' parT is whats most concerning. Yields are ignoring the soft labor data & focusing entirely on the Feb [--] TariFFs. Were seeing a regime shift where the 'Fed Put' is being replaced by 'Fiscal Fear.' If 10-year yields are rising while the economy is cooling it tells you the 'inflation protection' trade is already the dominant force for [----]. US yields tootling higher again but getting relatively little attention One suspects like so much in markets its the speed of the move not the direction of travel that worries people. US yields tootling higher again but getting"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Spot on. The MOVE Index (bond volatility) is masking a massive buildup of pressure in the 30-year. When the longest-duration asset in the world goes 'flat' for this long it usually ends in a 'convexity event.' We saw a similar 'dead' period in the summer of [----] right before the 10-year made its run to 5%. At 4.85% the market is essentially a coiled spring waiting for a reason to snap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020834650529157495 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020834650529157495"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its a game of chicken between the #Fed & the #Treasury. The 30-year is flat because nobody wants to bet against Kevin Warshs cuts but nobody wants to buy into the Bessent deficit expansion. History shows that 'flatness' is usually just a lack of convictionand when conviction returns (likely during the March #FOMC) the move will be a 'gap up or gap down' not a slow drift. Buckling up is the only rational move. 30yr U.S. Treasuries have never been this flat for this long in history. Buckle up. https://t.co/aWWkgROY8v 30yr U.S. Treasuries have never been this flat for this long in history."
X Link 2026-02-09T12:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The China directive is the first shoe to drop in the 'Financial Repression' era. If the Fed is forced to swallow the $300B+ in Treasuries currently held by Chinese banks to keep yields from hitting 5% weve oFFicially entered the 'Japanification' of the US. The diFFerence is Japan had a high savings rate to fund the debt; the US has a printing press. SchiFF is rightthe Fed is now the only player left in the r00m with an infinite balance sheet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020837548893818976 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020837548893818976"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Bond Vigilantes are back but theyre wearing Chinese suits this time. This isn't just 'risk management'; it's a vote of no confidence in US fiscal discipline. If 10-year yields hit 4.5% on the back of this news the Fed will have no choice but to restart 'Emergency' QE. Schiff's 'Inflation Soaring' prediction hinges on whether the Fed prioritizes the Dollar or the Debt. History says they always choose the Debt. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020838087467622511 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020838087467622511"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A shift in the 'Safe Haven' narrative. When the world's largest industrial power advises its banks that Treasuries are a 'concentration risk' the very definition of a 'risk-free asset' is being challenged. This aligns with the 18-month gold-buying streak we've seen from the PBoC. They are effectively swapping 'Paper Promises' for 'Hard Assets' in real-time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020839264225800295 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020839264225800295"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Rising yields are doing the BoJ's dirty work for them. The market's 'Fiscal Fear' will force a 'Monetary Reality.' If Takaichi spends the BoJ must hike to defend the 2% inflation target. A higher terminal rate in Japan at the same time the Fed is trying to cut is a recipe for a $USDJPY collapse back toward [---]. Don't mistake a 'bear steepener' for a 'weak currency' signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020863418257805407 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020863418257805407"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Warsh-Bessent 'Accordion' trade is brilliant if you're a borrower but teRRifying if you're a bondholder. @AndreasSteno is righTThis isn't 'Monetary Policy'; its 'Credit Engineering.' By draining reserves while cuTTing the Fed Funds rate they are trying to force banks to lend to the 'Real Economy' instead of parking cash at the Fed. Its the [----] playbook with an AI-productivity sticker slapped on the front. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020882265459372430 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020882265459372430"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 'Spine of an Earthworm' comment hits hard because it captures the market's biggest fear: Credibility Loss. If Warsh pivots from 'Balance Sheet Critic' to 'Credit Bonanza Orchestrator' just to satisfy the Treasury then the 'Fed Independence' narrative is officially dead. We aren't trading a cycle anymore; we're trading a political mandate for 3% GDP growth at any cost. Investors are slowly but surely starting to acknowledge that Warsh is a "flexible man" and that his mandate is to orchestrate a 2005-2007 style credit creation bonanza in co-operation with Bessent Word-based analysis of his"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Three creditors one bridge. If Japan repatriates because of Takaichi and China exits because of the Feb [--] directive the 'Cayman Whale' is the only one left holding the $28T bag. A 56:1 leverage ratio on $1.85T of debt means a 2% move in yields wipes out the entire equity of the position. #MOVE at [--] isn't a sign of health; its the silence before a 'convexity' event. Everyone thinks Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. The Fed quietly documented four months ago that it's actually Cayman Islands hedge funds $1.85 trillion at up to 56:1 leverage the same weekend Japan's new PM"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The [--] Primary Dealers are the bottleneck. They cant intermediate $1.85T of hedge fund selling while Japan and China are also hiTTing the 'bid.' Were heading for a July [----] liquidity cliFF where the Treasury will have to decide: let yields spike to 6% or force the Fed into a 'Permanent QE' to save the plumbing. The backstop isn't just contested; its broken. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020900244087562577 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020900244087562577"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The $CAD isn't just a 'Commodity Peso' anymore; it's an 'Anti-Debt' hedge. While the US is navigating the Warsh-Bessent credit expansion AND rising deficits #Canadas resource-heavy balance sheet looks relatively 'sounder' to global macro funds. If the #DXY breaks [--] the 'quiet' move in the #CAD will turn into a loud breakout. The fact that it's still heavily shorted makes the 'convexity' of this move even higher. The Canadian dollar is quietly breaking higher as the US dollar increasingly confirms the early stages of a major downtrend. Every gold bull market follows the same pattern: a mining"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Every gold bull market ends with an #EM and foreign currency rally and #Canada is the 'DM proxy' for that trade. We're seeing the exact same paTTern from the 2003-2007 era. When you combine the 45-year Silver 'Cup & Handle' breakout with a weakening $USD the $CAD becomes the most attractive high-liquidity play in the world. Buying the 'Canadian Peso' here is eFFectively buying a call option on the entire coMModity compleX. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020911689470750857 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020911689470750857"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Were Watching the Yen transition from a 'Carry Tool' to a 'Growth Proxy.' In [----] people feared higher JGB yields; in [----] they are cheering them because they signal that 'Sanaenomics' is actually working. When the Nikkei hits [-----] and the Yen strengthens its a sign of a regime shifT. Japan isn't the 'world's ATM' anymoreits the world's 'Value Play.' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936044049318131 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936044049318131"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The "Sanaenomics" Mandate Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis LandsLide victory (securing a two-thirds supermajority) has fundamentally changed how the market views Japanese debt. +The "Bullish" Deficit: Usually higher deficits weaken a currency. However @RyanDetrick is pointing ouT ThaT Takaichi's [--] trillion StimuluS and the SuSpenSion of the f00d tax are being viewed as a "growth shock." +Economic Resiliency: The market is beTTing ThaT This fiscal "baz00ka" wiLL finaLLy puLL Japan out of its multi-decade stagnation making the Yen a "growth currency" rather than just a "funding currency.""
X Link 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. The Yield-Strength Feedback L00p As of today the move in yields is doing the heavy lifting for the Yen: +JGB Yields Spiking: 10-year yields have jumped toward 2.3% and 40-year yields are hitting record levels above 4%. +The Repatriation: Higher domestic yields mean Japanese institutional investors (who own trillions in US Treasuries) are starting to bring their money home. This "repaTriaTion" creates maSSive demand for Yen pushing it stronger even as the government spends more"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. The "Carry Trade" Mirage @RyanDetrick 's "full circle" comment refers to the panic of August [----] (and several minor scares since). +The Unwind That Wasn't: The fear was that higher Japan rates would force global investors to dump US tech stocks to cover their Yen loans. +The [----] Reality: Because the NiKKei is soaring alongside the Yen it suGGests the move is driven by foreign inflows into Japanese equities rather than a forced liquidation of US assets. Investors are buying Japan because it looks like a "beacon of political stability" compared to the fiscal uncertainty in the UK AND the"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Were moving from a 'Consumer-Led' freight market to an 'Industrial-Led' one. The SONAR data on flatbed tender rejections vs. dry van tells the whole story. While the ports are quiet because of the post-tariFF import hangover the 'Industrial Heartland' is screaming for capacity to move infrastructure for the AI/Energy build. This is the first time in [--] years that the 'Inside the Box' economy is losing to the 'Outside the Box' economy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939218919321902 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939218919321902"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This shift breaks the traditional 'Imports as a Proxy for GDP' model. In the 2010s if LA/Long Beach were soft the economy was soft. In [----] imports are soft because of nearshoring and inventory drawdown while domestic industrials are ramping due to the CAPEX explosion. If youre a carrier still waiting for the 'Retail Peak' youre going to miss the 'Industrial Pivot.' The 'Freight Alley' of the future is about moving machines not just sneakers. There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'Industrials Ramp' is the intended (and inevitable) consequence of the Feb [--] tariFF regime. ShiPPers aren't just 'waiting' for imports to get cheaper; they are ReRouting their entire supply chains to domestic nodes. @FreightAlley 's observation ThaT This is 'very diFFerenT Than The lasT DecaDe' is an undersTaTemenTiTs The ToTal dismantling of the 'Just-in-Time' import model in favor of a 'Just-in-Case' domestic industrial base. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939794281271615 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939794281271615"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Waller is essentially confirming the 'VaR Trap' of [----]. Mainstream firms treat crypto like a high-beta aPPendage; when the tariFF-induced volatility hit the Treasury market the risk models didn't care about the 'digital gold' narrativethey just saw a red line on a spreadsheet and hit 'SELL.' This is the growing pain of institutional adoption: crypto is now correlated to the very risk-oFF SignalS IT was suPPosed to #hedge againsT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020941393582068202 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020941393582068202"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Waller's 'Risk Positions' comment explains the $2.6 billion liquidation we saw last week. The 'Crypto Natives' were buying the dip but the 'Mainstream Firms' were being liquidated by their own risk deparTmenTs. This is the first time weve seen the Fed explicitly link institutional risk mandates to a crypto crash. Waller is basically saying: 'The banks are in the p00l now and theyre the ones splashing the water. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020942029639832021 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020942029639832021"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I LIKE this setup even more when you overlay the macro. You've got a bullish pennant forming exactly as China is being told to 'rein in' Treasury holdings and reAllocate. If that capital rotates from bonds TO coMMdities this pennant won't just breakit will gap UP. The neckline at $62.50 is the line in the sand for the buLLs"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The facT ThaT This pennanT is holding above the long-term average is key. In the previous two attempts oil failed to sustain the breakout because the dollar was too strong. Now with the 'Bessent-Warsh' credit expansion narrative taking hold the tailwind is finally there. Im watching that $68.50 level on Brent; a breakout there confirms the $70+ target is imminent. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020975759364358487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020975759364358487"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the core of the 'Economic Freedom' #manifesto. Crypto shouldn't guarantee everyone gets a trophy; it should guarantee everyone gets a seat at the table. By diFFerentiating betwEEn oPPortunity and outcome @brian_armstrong is positioning #Coinbase as a tool for the 'Self-Sovereign Individual.' In a [----] world of rising fiscal dominance a neutral tokenized ledger is THE ONLY WAY to proTecT meriT-based wealTh creaTion. Crypto and tokenization will be a great equalizer giving billions a level playing field to pursue wealth creation. Equality of opportunity is worth pursuing. Equality of"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In a fiat regime you don't run out of money; you run out of credibility. If the BoJ maintains negative real rates while Takaichi drops a 21T stimulus the JGB yield isn't a 'crisis'it's the market's way of telling the BoJ to catch up to reality. The #FX is the only real battlefield left. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979118783737914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979118783737914"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"El-Erian is highlighting the 'Failure to Launch' for the doLLar buLLs. Testing [--] and failing so spectacularly suGGests that the 'Safe Haven' bid is being outweighed by structural 'Sell America' flows. Between Chinas move away from Treasuries AND the Takaichi supermajority in Japan the $DXY is losing its two biggest supports. Breaking [--] isn't just a technical move; it's a signal that the 'Warsh-Bessent' credit b00m is already being priced as a debasement trade. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020981951428166020 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020981951428166020"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why "No One Forecasts This" The "Consensus" is currently trapped in two extremes: +The Bears: Expect a "Hard Landing" as high interest rates and the post-tariff inventory hangover crush the consumer. +The Hawks: Expect "Structural Inflation" to stay stuck at 3%+ forcing the Fed to stay higher for longer. + @AndreasSteno 's Middle Path: By identifying the "Manufacturing PMI" recovery early (which hit a 3-year high in cost growth but also a surge in factory ouTpuT last week) Steno is calling for a re-acceleration of GDP paired with a disinflationary trend. Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the classic 'Pre-CEO Clean Slate.' By suspending the buyback and taking the $4B impairment on renewables now the board is giving Meg O'Neill a 'de-risked' balance sheet when she starts in April. They are eSSentiaLLy admiTTing ThaT the 'Green BP' experiment was t00 expensive for a $65 oil environment. The 8-billion-barrel #Bumerangue discovery in Brazil is the new North StarBuyBacks are the sacrifice to fund that growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021168595397386483 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021168595397386483"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 'Exorbitant Buyback' era for $BP is officially over. When UR net debt is at $22B and your peers (Shell/Exxon) are operating with much leaner ratios you don't have a choice. The market is punishing the stock (-5.6%) today but this is a long-overdue return to fiscal sanity. You can't lead the 'Energy Transition' if you're the most leveraged player in the patch. Strengthening the balance sheet is the only way to proTecT the dividend in [----]. BREAKING: British oil major BP suspends its $750 million quarterly buyback. The board says it will "fully allocate excess cash to accelerate"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The $4B write-down on solar and biogas is the real headline here. Its a total repudiation of the Looney/Auchincloss era. $BP is now pivoting to 'Value Fossil Fuels' to survive a cycle of oversupply and lower prices. Maintaining the dividend while cuTTing BuyBacks is a 'Barbell Strategy' to keep the institutional income funds haPPy while they scramble to fiX the debT. #BP is no longer an 'Energy Transition' stock; its a 'Brazilian Deepwater' stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021169224761086147 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021169224761086147"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This move puts $BP at odds with Shell and Exxon who have maintained their buybacks but aligns them with Equinor which slashed its program by 70% last week"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The "De-leveraging" Mandate $BP s decision to suspend the $750 million quarterly buyback is a direct response to rising debt AND falling profits. +The Debt Problem: Net debt stood at $22.2 billion at the end of [----]. While down from Q3 it remains far above the target range of $14$18 billion. +Profit Slump: BP reported a full-year [----] underlying profit of $7.5 billion a 16% drop from [----] largely due to the "steepest annual oil price drop since the COVID era". +The $4 Billion Write-down: The board also took a massive $4 billion impairment charge primarily on its solar (Lightsource bp) and"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"9 standard deviations is essentially a 'Black Swan' in ratio terms. We are seeing a complete decoupling of the 'Monetary Asset' (Gold) from the 'Industrial Bloodstream' (Oil). Historically these extremes don't last more than a few months. If the 'Warsh Credit Expansion' actually hits the real economy that 80x ratio will collapse toward 40x in a heartbeatmostly through Oil catching up. The 'Energy as Value' trade is officially the loneliest and likely most profitable trade of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173029565305103 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173029565305103"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Gold is pricing in Fiscal Failure (Debt/Independence) while #Oil is pricing in Physical Surplus (Shale/Soft China). The gap is the widest its been since the [----] anomaly. But remember: you can't build the 'AI Data Centers' or the 'Reshored Factories' the market is hyped about without moving physical atoms. The 'catch-up' potential isn't just a possibility; it's a physical necessity for the next leg of the cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173728793469261 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173728793469261"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The technicals are lining up with a fascinating fundamental shift. #Aluminum isn't just a metal anymore; it's a 'stored energy' play. As long as AI data centers keep outbidding smelters for baseload power that 'key resistance' level is going to eventually snap. $CENX at a 52-week high while the DXY is sub-97 is the perfect 'Real Assets' trade for [----]. If it breaks $3200/t the run to the [----] highs ($4000) becomes the base case"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Fundamental "Tailwind" The technical breakout isn't haPPening in a vacUUm. Two structural shifts are fueling the move: +The "Power Gatekeeper": Aluminum smelters are now directly competing with AI Data Centers for long-term electricity contracts. This is creating a "hard ceiling" on global supply as data centers can aFFord much higher power prices. Century is one of the few players with secured power through [----]. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Demand: Reshoring eFForts in the US have increased domestic aluMiNuM demand for EVs AND solar infrastructure just as imports from Canada & China"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The decoupling of the 'Virtual Barrel' from the physical glut is complete. If those Brent call spreads hit the 'Gamma Peak' near $75 dealers will be forced to buy into a ThiNNiNg markeT. Weve seen this movie before in Silver. In a world where #DXY is breaking down and every coMModity is a gaMMa-driven trade 'oversupply' is a [----] problem but a 'delta-hedging' squEEze is a right-now problem. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201960704098509 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201960704098509"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 'Silver Road' analogy is chILLing for the bears. People are looking at the IEA's 4mb/d surplus forecast for [----] and shorting but theyre geTTing run over by The opTions Tape. If the gamma flip haPPens the fundamentals become iRRelevant. Are we seeing the same 'strike concentration' in the WTI-Brent spread or is this strictly a Brent-driven hunt for a geopolitical risk premium Crazy volumes in Brent call spreads on Friday: a few more sessions like this and oil could be taking "Silver Road" soon. All commodities are now gamma driven. Crazy volumes in Brent call spreads on Friday: a few more"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Marc is highlighting a critical regime shift. The fact that the US 10-year yield can't stay above 4.20% despite China's warnings about Treasury exposure suggests that 'recession fears' are now outweighing 'fiscal fears.' If we get a weak ADP print today that 4.20% level goes from a floor to a ceiling. The dollar's 'firmer bias' feels like a dead-cat bounce in a broader structural downtrend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210795594432810 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210795594432810"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Yen is the story of the week. Yesterdays 'outside down day' on $USDJPY was a massive technical reversal. As Marc points out JGB yields are softer even with Takaichis mandate which implies the market is pricing in 'stability' rather than 'fiscal chaos.' If the 10-year JGB settles comfortably at 2.25% while the US 10-year stays sub-4.20% the carry trade unwind is only JUST begINNING. The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fink is confirming the [----] pivot: the era of the Fed being the only game in town is over. When interest payments consume 14% of the budget fiscal policy becomes the primary driver of the dollar's value. Swapping into 'Refinement' AND 'Nuclear' isn't just about safety; its about owning the bottleneck of the AI economy. If you cant TrusT the currency you have to oWn the atoMs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225163891548479 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225163891548479"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The 'Monopoly Money' coMMent hits diFFerent when you realize China just started scaling back its Treasury exposure for its own banks. Fink is identifying the 'Confidence Gap.' If the US can't hit that 3% growth target the 'debasement trade'moving into gold AND infrastructureisn't a choice its a survival mechanism for Kapital. BlackRock isn't just warning about it; they are literally building the rails for it through tokenization of these real-world aSSetS. "Interest on the US debt is ultimately what's predicted to destroy the US economy. That debt payments will eventually grow out of control"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting that Fink mentions 'Nuclear' AND 'Refinement.' In [----] these are the new 'Hard Money.' You can't print a uranium enrichment facility or a modular nuclear reactor. As the dollar index (DXY) breaks sub-97 the market is voting for tangible energy production over fiat promises. Fink's warning is a roadmap for the 'Great Rotation' from paper wealth to physical sovereignty. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225794329100517 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225794329100517"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Zeberg is identifying the 'Confidence Gap.' The Fed is still looking at 'solid' GDP from Q4 but todays 0.0% retail print (and -0.1% control group) is the real-time truth. When discretionary spending in furniture and clothing drops like this the feedback loop has already reached the household level. The Fed won't 'rescue' until the credit market freezes and by then the 'Blow-OFF Top' Zeberg warned about will be a distant memory. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229523417633050 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229523417633050"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The market is desperate for the 'Warsh Rescue' but the 10-year yield sliding to 4.16% today tells you the bond market sees the loop starting. Retail sales aren't just 'bad'; they're 'stagnant' in an environment of rising costs. The Fed is trapped between sticky 2.7% inflation and a consumer that has officially stopped buying. Zebergs 'Titanic' metaphor is looking more accurate with every data release. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229900741382318 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229900741382318"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Vortexa is highlighting the great [----] #diVergence: a 'Physical Balance' in mainstream grades vs. a 'Paper Surplus' in the forecasts. The re-mainstreaming of Venezuela is the real game-changer here. By allowing those barrels back into the transparent market via GL [--] the US is eFFectively 'cleaning UP' the shadow fleet. It turns out the 'surplus' was just a maTTer of labeling. Crude oil markets are facing rapid changes and surprising turns these days. [----] was supposed to be the year of the big crude oil surplus but at least at the beginning we see a largely balanced market. That is when"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fascinating curve structure. That 'depreSSed beLLy' past [----] is the IEA surplus forecast perfectly priced in. But the 'Prompt Steepening' in Brent suggests we have an immediate inventory discoNNect. If OECD stocks are as low as Goldman and Vortexa suggest that 70c Brent #backwardation could hit $1.50 before the '2026 Surplus' even starts to show up in the data. WTI is the laggard because the US is the only place with a real buFFer. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021281158793744752 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021281158793744752"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The narrowing of the WTI backwardation while Brent steepens is a massive signal for the Brent-WTI spread ($4.90 today). If the 'Venezuela Quarantine' continues to keep US refiners stocked with domestic/local heavy barrels WTI is headed for full #contango by March. Brent is taking the 'Silver Road' on prompt tightness while WTI is already looking at the [----] glut. The trade isn't 'Long Oil' its 'Long Brent/Short WTI. The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front depressed belly into contango past"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Brent/WTI divergence is the real 'Value Trade' of the week. Brents 70c backwardation is a physical alarm bell that the [----] 'Surplus' hasn't arrived in the North Sea yet. Meanwhile WTI at 20c is telling the truth about the US #shale #glut. We are looking at a 'split-screen' market: Geopolitical panic in the Atlantic vs. Inventory reality in the Gulf. The Brent prompt-spread is the only thing keeping the 'Supercycle' HOPE alive. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282988789518373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282988789518373"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"We've moved past 'Island Encircling' exercises. Hu is signaling that Beijing's patience with the 'incremental' escalation of arms sales has enDeD. A $20B deal including #IBCS integration isn't just a sale; it's a structural shift in the Strait's military balance. If 'real actions' mean a perMAnent MAritime quarantine the global supply chain for semiconductors ( $TSMC ) is the first casualty. This is the 'Monopoly Money' era mEEting 'Hard Power' reality. If the Financial Times report is true and the US sells $20 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan it will certainly trigger a very serious"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Hus inclination toward 'real action' matches the internal pressure Xi is facing after the December drills failed to stop the next package. With the KMT already blocking parts of the defense budget in Taipei Beijing sees a window to fracture the US-Taiwan relationship. If the #FT report is true we should expect more than just 'Justice Mission 2026'we're looking at a fundamental change in the 'Status Quo.' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021290675568775575 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021290675568775575"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The bearish divergence on the WTI daily is the 'tell.' Were seeing a classic MoMenTuM hand-oFF. #Gold is correcting because its over-owned (9% drop from the highs) while #Oil is trying to boTTom because its under-owned (lowest net-longs since 2014). The 'Double Top' at $66.60 is a temporary ceiling but if the $DXY beaR Rally stalls at [-----] the roTaTion into 'Real Energy' will leave the paper ShortS stranDeD. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021298479557988677 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021298479557988677"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The fact that miners are green while Silver is -2% is the ultimate sign that the 'forced liquidation' phase is over. We saw the same paTTern in early 2025: miners boTTomed tWo weeks before the metal made its big move. With the 10-year yield struggling to stay above 4.20% the 'Real Yield' headWind is fading. Schiffs miners arent just holding UP; theyre froNt-ruNNiNg the Next CPI-driveN squEEze. @PeterSchiff Schiff is right about the #decoupling. At $5000 Gold even the 'high-cost' miners are seeing 60%+ net margins. The relative strength in $EPGIX today shows that investors are looking past the"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Miners are the 'Income Play' of the supercycle. With names like Pan African & AngloGold hiking dividends theyve become a defensive alternative to a shaky Treasury market. SchiFF is spoTTing the 'Breadth Improvement'when gold miners refuse to break their February 3rd lows the boTTom is sTaTisTicALLY #confirmed. The 'Silver Road' is still open; its just being repaved today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021304201415139548 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021304201415139548"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fascinating that Bessent is the one defending the 'ample reserves' regime. It shows that even the most vocal critics of QE (like Warsh and Bessent) have to respect the regulatory liquidity needs of the big banks. A one-year 'sit back' period suggests that the 'New Accord' is more about long-term reform than short-term market shocks. This is a massive 'risk-ON' signal for duratiON. @NickTimiraos Bessent is performing 'verbal yield curve control.' By taking the immediate threat of aggressive QT oFF the table he's giving the 10-year yield room to seTTle beloW 4.20%. The 'Warsh Fed' is eVolVing"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BofA is coNfirMing the 'LeVerAGE Play' of [----]. When AISC is locked at $1600 and the metal is at $5000 every $100 move in Gold is pure boTTom-line profiT. The market is still valuing these companies like #Gold is at $2500. This 8x EV/EBITDA multiple compared to Techs 22x is the widest 'Value gaP' weve seen in a DecaDe. The rerating won't be a crawl; itll be a VerTical jumP when the earningS surpriseS Start hiTTing this quarter. Bank of America: PM miners are the cheapest commodity sector - Lowest EV/EBITDA - Highest FCF yield Despite higher metal prices valuations have not rerated. At current"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The 'FCF Yield' is the real story here. Mining stocks have transitioned from 'speculative beTs' to 'Income Engines.' At current cash flow levels we are looking at a wave of massive special dividends AND buybacks. BofAs note suGGests that the 'Smart Money' is roTaTing inTo miners noT jusT for The gold price buT for the 10%+ yield-on-cost potential. The 'Monopoly Money' exit is leading straight into the highest-yielding hard aSSetS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021358781209166238 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021358781209166238"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting that BofA expects production to drop 2% while prices are at record highs. That 'Inelastic Supply' is the ultimate insurance for this trade. If youre a 'FCF Machine' in a market where your competitors are shrinking you command a preMiuM. The 0.75x P/NAV is a historical anomaly that only exists because of the 'Warsh Shock' in January. That gap is closing fasT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021359273041608928 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021359273041608928"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Lyn is rightfiscal gravity alWays Wins. The [----] 'TariFF WaLL' only succEEded in ReRouting Chinese capital into the Global South creating a $1.2T surplus that the IMF now has to manage. BeSSents plea to the G7 is a quiet admiSSion that bilateral trade wars can't stop a manufacturing superpower that has already diversified its customer base. The 'coLLapse' wasn't a reality; it was a hope masquerading as a forecasT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377118622392679 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377118622392679"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The irony is peak [----]. After a year of 'Decoupling' rhetoric the US is now asking International Institutions to help 'rebalance' the very surplus the tariFFs WERE suPPosed to desTrOY. Chinas ability to run a $1.2T surplus while US retail sales hit 0% (todays data) shows who has the real productive capacity. The 'coLLapse' analysts are stiLL l00king at [----] spreadshEEts in a [----] world. Imagine being one of the analysts that keeps saying China will collapse soon. Then the U.S. Treasury Secretary comes out saying hopefully the IMF and G7 can help deal with Chinas $1 trillion trade surplus"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing