# ![@smith_dad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::793818084.png) @smith_dad StockEducator.Pro

StockEducator.Pro posts on X about $es, $nq, $ndx, $spx the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::793818084/interactions)
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- [--] Week [---] -51%
- [--] Month [-----] +74%
- [--] Months [------] +17%
- [--] Year [------] -11%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::793818084/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] +169%
- [--] Month [--] +86%
- [--] Months [---] +70%
- [--] Year [---] +264%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::793818084/followers)
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- [--] Week [-----] -0.06%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.36%
- [--] Months [-----] -1.20%
- [--] Year [-----] +64%

### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::793818084/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::793818084/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [finance](/list/finance)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  [countries](/list/countries) 

**Social topic influence**
[$es](/topic/$es), [$nq](/topic/$nq), [$ndx](/topic/$ndx), [$spx](/topic/$spx), [$qqq](/topic/$qqq), [$spy](/topic/$spy), [$nvda](/topic/$nvda), [$tsla](/topic/$tsla), [$tqqq](/topic/$tqqq), [$upro](/topic/$upro)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Eclipse (ES)](/topic/$es) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [Oklo Inc. (OKLO)](/topic/$oklo) [Spacemesh (SMH)](/topic/$smh) [Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally) [Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI)](/topic/$si) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Rocket Lab USA, Inc. Common Stock (RKLB)](/topic/$rklb) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)](/topic/$arkk) [Meta Games Coin (MGC)](/topic/$mgc) [GameStop, Corp. (GME)](/topic/$gme) [April (APRIL)](/topic/april)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@ACDCTrader1 As soon as I tweeted that I figured I'd erred in my message I do think that speculation is ever-present whether Y2K dot.coms '07 RE or today's GME/AMC's. It just seems the apes are silenced presently. Thanks for your comment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1470941379710779393)  2021-12-15T02:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"WEBCAST Chris Whalen 1-On-1 With Keith McCullough via @hedgeye https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/129523-webcast-chris-whalen-1-on-1-with-keith-mcculloughtype=macro https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/129523-webcast-chris-whalen-1-on-1-with-keith-mcculloughtype=macro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1631475727832068096)  2023-03-03T02:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$NVDA The blue oval on speed shows a [----] retracement back to the REFLECTED maximum (which creates the ghost minimum). That was today's low. The pink oval shows the traditional speed long entry. Price peaked after that at the yellow oval (almost). I traded a smaller chart yest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1661758989363990528)  2023-05-25T15:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA is tracking my model pretty well. The blue fib is at $233 and after that $250. No model I've seen has been as accurate at the [----] low top and last two swing lows. If this is a five then targeting ATH. A good first step toward that would be clearing $233"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1666235794917560321)  2023-06-07T00:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NVDA my crazy math calls for $770 eventually which isn't much of a stretch since I didn't put a date on it. However weekly velocity is exactly where reversals like to start so if were long I'd be tightening stops here and now. 🤑"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1666240101175926785)  2023-06-07T00:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA I just noticed two things. #1 TSLA price at $249 ETH high is just slightly past the true 61.8% retracement of the bear mkt. (True b/c most platforms compute fibs incorrectly.) #2 Showing TSLA w/ a theoretical long-dated call. Focus on the dates/prices of the two ovals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1667067162576703488)  2023-06-09T07:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA had a large gap that it rallied to and filled over a year ago. Once filled TSLA dropped steadily. TSLA effectively revisited a gap left in Oct (it dropped until EOY while SPX bottomed 10/13) just minutes ago. Is it "official" during ETH Unsure. I took profits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1668739934403039232)  2023-06-13T21:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"That's Tessie by the way. Fat gap up this a.m. that filled the gap from last year and then the drop to fill the OVN gap. $TSLA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1669021860917547008)  2023-06-14T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA's alpha is mean-reverting now. Chart is of May/June"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1669408137382891520)  2023-06-15T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A pullback indeed Now down $30 or 10.7% from the top. Again my model for $TSLA has delivered. $217-ish is likely the "obvious" target for those w/o my model (top of w1). Let's see *if* it can keep dropping what my model says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1671872386780786689)  2023-06-22T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My model for $TSLA is in a supportive area so it's no surprise it's reversed yesterday's weakness. Reclaiming $250 is an obvious goal for bulls and if they can't I can see $233 next. I'm again trading long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1673711623960403968)  2023-06-27T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Wasn't "easy" but the trend was identified along with most of the consequential turning points. ES is in the 3rd pane. Indicator heaven elsewhere. In the 2nd chart NQ is just [---] pts points away from the target given months ago. [-----] +/-"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1681537242022678530)  2023-07-19T05:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The composite's two-week chart shows that after this a.m.'s drop a [----] retrace came and it was the ceiling (as it often is). The silly yellow trendline was indicative of weak longs with their machine-gun stops -- hence the dump. Will be interesting if the current"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1686591345753026560)  2023-08-02T04:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


".ES level holds as resistance and targets below get hit. At the bottom remains critical speed SUPPORT which was tested successfully last week. If it goes then longs can worry. Recall that the big NQ fib target was reached/rejected last week and (lower) again yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1686591347598462976)  2023-08-02T04:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FusionptCapital I'm gonna HODL Keep the faith; it's coming back baby"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1693804593757761889)  2023-08-22T01:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NateDaddy33 @SECGov @GaryGensler I don't understand why so many think something criminal is happening. Lots of talk about cost-to-borrow and more buys than sells but it's an auction mkt. Check time-and-sales.Most reverse-split stocks are on life-support. No insiders are buying. Why HODL AMC and not NVDAfor ex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1699494741203882284)  2023-09-06T18:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"NQ is still at risk of a top. (Check my 7/19 'top' call.) Series of LH's and now a velocity failure swing at red R. Beware an LL's in the index"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1702680140155920551)  2023-09-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"No significant change since last post but adding some comments. Thesis is wrong if velocity matches old highs and correct while below the speed limit line. Better confirmation when finally seeing lower-lows in price and a break of the green speed support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1703768237433934178)  2023-09-18T13:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Jedi_ant I think he knows that the Fed is not really in control of long-term interest rates. The market's going to do what the market's going to do. It's sniffs out true tops and bottoms. Inflation and deflation are a global phenomenon not controlled by Jay Powell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1709237527255920771)  2023-10-03T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Big-picture the bond/stock ratio suggests further weakening that favors stocks. Either of the two green arrows marks the probable end points. This dates back to [----] -- a giant H&S. The chart I showed last week was intraday and got run over by this much larger one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1714167609342800063)  2023-10-17T06:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@yymacun @saxena_puru They will cut multiple times but it won't be when the recession begins -- They won't recognize the recession initially. Falling stocks will catalyze the Fed. Stocks drop in spite of the Fed until cheap again. The Fed simply controls short-term interest rates often incorrectly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1714796710499918193)  2023-10-19T00:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bonds gave me a night of MAE but are back above the 107.50-108 USZ23 that I'd said had a great chance of being the bottom. Bill Ackman even covered his bond short. Chart shows the bond/stock ratio and it's about to get back in the green zone (October shown)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1716713957430530181)  2023-10-24T07:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The "reader" has a good point (Not bashing Biden; the POTUS isn't to blame for global inflation the root of which was the end of a 40-yr bear mkt in rates that reached their TARGET in October -- my top call.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1730588406844125263)  2023-12-01T14:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This has been one of my tools/creations I've been using/posting in the Discord I hang out in (not soliciting -- it's not my Discord). Just pointing out that indicators do not always lag and instead can forecast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1732766725186207752)  2023-12-07T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Jael7102 @4noura "What would you do if your daughter were being held hostage by violent rapists and murderers for two months Perhaps the better question is:What wouldnt you do" No Arab state is condemning Hamas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1733261004992315739)  2023-12-08T23:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kostjanixmehr @MMATNEWS He didn't mean they set the price of the security. He said effectively that they set the target price and then they try to drive the security to that target based on fundamental analysis. Capital Group and Fidelity are mentioned and don't even function as Citadel does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1733579716475671032)  2023-12-09T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"These are the math-based entries/exits I have been relying on (when awake not at the gym or dancing etc.). The higher lows are winners until they stop winning. Still posting intraday in someone else's Discord so not real active here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1734483768705187980)  2023-12-12T08:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ArnoRory @charliebilello They don't need to come down to return to original or lower levels. That's deflation. They can simply slow or stop rising and then you have disinflation. That's what the chart shows. If it keeps slowing it'll return to an average of [--] to 3% per year -normal. Prices still rising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1742666306070159555)  2024-01-03T21:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"And to think. [--] years ago when professionally managing other people's money I doubted the applicability and efficacy of fibs when applied to markets Even whales use them Humpback whales form Fibonacci spiral in Antarctica waters https://t.co/5RsvF5RdJP via @YouTube #fibonacci #fibonaccitrading @QueenOfFibs @traderDanielle Humpback whales form Fibonacci spiral in Antarctica waters https://t.co/5RsvF5RdJP via @YouTube #fibonacci #fibonaccitrading @QueenOfFibs @traderDanielle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744838573139087428)  2024-01-09T21:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge My content is necessarily going to be on Vimeo which I can protect. But I still need a different provider for the front end. Complexity but cheaper and more secure than YouTube"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745291090239103455)  2024-01-11T03:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"SMCI hit $461 overnight That's pretty close to that $469. (Didn't have a quote for this when I last tweeted -- this target has been my preliminary one since last spring)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1749424466583847092)  2024-01-22T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The stock popped again picking up $75 off of the Friday close at today's high after hours. That puts it in striking distance of my $583 target. This is not a straightforward fib target but one based on a model similar to what I used on Qualcomm in [----] Tesla and Roku"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1752168597974376749)  2024-01-30T03:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA reached my $265 target (tweeted here) and I suggested a break of $200. After it bounced at $175 I suggested $209 and it got to $205. I am still awaiting $149 and perhaps lower. New low for this downtrend reached at $166 this morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1768264024431677846)  2024-03-14T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"oval shows where $GME failed to hold green support and that marked "high is in". Then it did the full recycle back down on velocity. The big-picture velocity breakout has rewarded bulls All dips were bought along the way; classic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1790030859635937689)  2024-05-13T14:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES Target #2 achieved. Fibs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1790835970906182113)  2024-05-15T20:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES reached my target this morning. This is simply the 100% extension blah blah blah. I know; you're tired of hearing how my targets were reached: fibs all day. I exited at [--] not waiting for [--] and the HOD was.49. Also heavily trading BABA today. Bottom is in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1791159795275440595)  2024-05-16T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just a few comments I made in a Discord I share in over the last two days: 1) The precise time I called "short" for $GME when at $41 hit $21 this a.m. 2) Giving a fine-tuned $ES target for the move off of the April bottom and 3) Calling for BABA yest in pre-mkt (up 7%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1791457337938788559)  2024-05-17T13:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TicTocTick Surf in the morning ski in the afternoon and Tango at night"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1792901920518283548)  2024-05-21T12:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"On the 17th I shared in the Discord (not mine) the coming targets for $MRNA. Yesterday $169 was reached. Fibs Can't attribute this run to the $PFE / $MRNA news. $219 is the next fib. Not saying it gets there any time soon but if $169 is exceeded that's next to target"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1793623962062401813)  2024-05-23T12:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The $ES 23.6% fib was lost in today's drop. It could easily be reclaimed but if not still heading toward the more reasonable/meaningful 38.2% level at [----]. As usual will want to see price align with velocity support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1795972792107614416)  2024-05-30T00:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NVDA bounced from [----] to [----] (roughly) after reaching the blue line. Now will this hold Typically no as a return to the breakout unfolds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1796270531446218810)  2024-05-30T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Now down 18%. Whew"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1796273066491961409)  2024-05-30T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NVDA retraced to the prior pivot at the high today and then rejected. If this 1091-ish level falls then perhaps down to the lower green arrow (prior breakout). Now entering the prior gap --- NVDA doesn't like to fill major gaps. If this is filled it's another bad sign"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1796550450269110388)  2024-05-31T14:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The [----] $ES 38.2% has been passed slightly. My hope is a dump into the green arrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1796578021379579922)  2024-05-31T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Bottom thus far is [----] so I was "wrong" by [--] pts after making the call when at [----] target. $ES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1796593810132373881)  2024-05-31T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I traded $DELL from the long side on Friday at least until it hit a ceiling and couldn't advance to save its life despite the market accelerating to the upside in the last [--] mins of RTH. Smashed again today down 7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1797642688076144817)  2024-06-03T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I hope people will study this chart and have a cathartic moment replete with brain reprogramming. This proves a stock can drop 66%-75%+ despite unbelievable revenue growth. Fundamentals often take a back seat to technicals sector/market influence. Good companies still crash. When your quarterly revenues look like this S&P [---] inclusion is more than deserved. $CRWD 💸 https://t.co/2ummuoaMVd When your quarterly revenues look like this S&P [---] inclusion is more than deserved. $CRWD 💸 https://t.co/2ummuoaMVd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1799223343515890125)  2024-06-07T23:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MiggyOhh @jimcramer Are you a hater Do you reflexively do the opposite of him because he has had a bad call in the past Have you seen what his calls have done cumulatively His Nvidia call alone transcends all prior miscues. Don't forget 500x on DPZ REGN etc. How have YOUR picks done"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1802014766883598841)  2024-06-15T16:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$118 $nvda target (key fib) was practically reached at LOD $118.30. Very pretty 5-up after that and now retracing/testing. Down from 141"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1805261966350663700)  2024-06-24T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If you're looking for a reason for the sudden shift in fortunes of TSLA and NVDA. There was an *active pattern* suggesting that traders would emphasize TSLA over NVDA. That target was JUST reached"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1808514059865845854)  2024-07-03T14:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I didn't post here but all through the day I have been posting Nvidia's chart with speed. It pulled back and at the low speed matched a prior low. From there it was the great unwind as mentioned above. All that Tesla money came in and drove the stock to HOD & T1 reached"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1808549370520088911)  2024-07-03T17:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NVDA works off of #fibs and maintains its parabolic price action via maintenance of speed levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1811020236692591081)  2024-07-10T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Got the lower low. Daily trend velocity is now nicely aligned to provide support to $NQ. Fingers crossed on this one (not as confident as my other bottom calls)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1816735591381287089)  2024-07-26T07:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"😃 $NQ and $ES like Friday are opening significantly higher and creating gaps in the ETFs like QQQ and SPY. Friday's gaps were not filled. QQQ's gap held 61.8% retracement support. Friday ended just as ES had done [--] sideways reversals each slightly lower and ready to rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1817906078816120976)  2024-07-29T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"ES has the nice low at the T1 target down last Thursday (and at DAILY speed support) and has retraced [----] of the red range. There's nothing impulsive looking thus a corrective bounce it seems. This looks vulnerable and really needs a higher high at least"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1818310901365440564)  2024-07-30T15:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Tested some $ES Thu/Fri lows and getting some love there. As long as that DAILY speed low from Thu isn't lost. Now to make this impulsive looking 1) No new low was seen 2) Need to exceed the red rect. Otherwise this is a weak structure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1818350340066189466)  2024-07-30T18:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"This was my hesitation but seeing impulsive behavior finally is the key. Here's the chart that I had been posting showing NQ and then what I look at after some math. Nearly a 100% retrace back to the April value area per my work. Only if yest's lows are lost is this bearish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1818706069449003013)  2024-07-31T17:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES Target #2 (fib based) as at [----] yesterday. It *also* happened to be the 61.8% retracement of the drop from all-time-highs hence the smack-down today (target + retrace = selling). The mkt has retraced about 61.8% of the move up yesterday and is free to retrace all of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1819054437878714804)  2024-08-01T16:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NQ has lost the April low per my model for it shown here. This can only mean that the velocity trend support of which I've been tweeting recently has indeed been lost. Next step is either a back-test of the area or a swift drop to a fib-based target. $ES is already at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1819394133389463918)  2024-08-02T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"It's been a nice bounce but despite the apparent $NQ strength its relative strength has lagged $ES. Furthermore a rally yest. helped define the size of today's rally and its completion a fast mini-collapse has manifested. Bulls failed to fully close the $ES gap at 5358"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1820910357155836059)  2024-08-06T19:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Sunday's $ES gap was filled at [----] and having an initial reaction down. Now the ETF's remain with gaps both above/below the mkt so unsure next direction. Just finding today's reaction as interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1821186314446024713)  2024-08-07T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"At the high $NQ had reached my model's T2. ES had filled Sunday's gap and the drop began. ETF's filled their respective overnight gaps and a nice bounce followed but the pernicious $NQ weakness relative to $ES has allowed for NQ NLOD and ES to lose 5265"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1821244228112150909)  2024-08-07T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"It's a matter of time before CNBC talks about the underperformance of NDX/NQ/QQQ vs. SPX/ES/SPY. The rally in their ratio back-tested the prior trend previously lost and is again heading down favoring the diversified blue-chips. Not a vote of confidence in Tech"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1821245091526406178)  2024-08-07T18:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NQ / $ES ratio is biting the dust. Where is that NQ leadership 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1821274487150801000)  2024-08-07T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NQ tested the [----] of the entire bounce rally last night --- held. Rallied then dipped to retrace [----] of that--- held. Zoom zoom Looks good to me still that my T1 call for NQ is the bottom. But need to take out yest's high or I'm likely wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1821555682417709310)  2024-08-08T14:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@OrderflowES Did the carry trade really enable the move up If so and it's over wouldn't stocks go down Ok they did. Then why should there be a V recovery now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1821666928408354863)  2024-08-08T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Not only did the higher high come but price is now between the [--] red and [--] pink arrows. Again pink is my preferred 1st target. (Seems so unscientific talking about colored arrows but it's least math-based and the arrows are just highlighting taps of significant levels.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1823114348090507574)  2024-08-12T21:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NQ and $ES targets reached just now. Just sayin'. There's something to my math right Now while this should pullback here $ES is showing that further upside is a BREAKOUT. I'm totally open to either action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1823359286329905319)  2024-08-13T14:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Apparently didn't post this. But the b.o. *did* occur and yesterday's pullback was a back-test of the breakout level. My estimate for the $ES *model* was to reach [----] which was just attained. The model hasn't quite reached T1 however. No guar it's reached can PASS too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1824121044174766285)  2024-08-15T16:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TicTocTick From VIX [--] to [--] in [--] days and back to [--] in [--] days. The spike in the "fear index" was a great tell. (Plus the NQ bottom was at a common [-----] fib extension.) Today $ES reached its [-----] fib extension to the.upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1824207148114645397)  2024-08-15T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"So busy posting in a Discord and not here but here's a refresh of the right side of the chart. Notice the pinging of the fibs. This range must be exited for the bulls or bears to claim temporary victory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1824525538779893934)  2024-08-16T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES It exited the range mentioned above surpassing the T1 target and then back-testing T1 this morning before moving higher. Simple math-based model doing its thing. ($NQ is in the same mode.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1825582921274851373)  2024-08-19T17:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Today $NQ had a push up with gusto but the ensuing drop was actually more damaging to velocity levels. I believe that the top is in for wave [--] and [-----] is a good candidate target for w4. While the EW is nebulous at best it would do nice resets for velocity w/ known targets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1826290148356878824)  2024-08-21T16:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"For the moment $ES is playing ping-pong with good velocity levels (tradeable ones). I don't want to be prematurely bearish and am trying to use this smaller time-frame to keep me honest to not miss out on longs. But I also want to continue looking for bearish signs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1826315187571622309)  2024-08-21T17:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$nvda model shows reaching a solid fib target (I did call for $130) and now what appears to be a H&S. Green line is probable target else back to bottom of the model's range (which would NOT be the same as the $91 low)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1826677836465537249)  2024-08-22T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"At the low on Thursday to end the day five waves down had completed. That now looks like a completed A followed by the Powell rally as a B and the subsequent decline as a C. Hard to imagine that it's a completed correction but I'm not arguing with it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1827412757735674288)  2024-08-24T18:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TicTocTick Isn't that your average TikTok video"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1828490561025909017)  2024-08-27T17:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@TicTocTick I own a GoPro Pelaton and see AMC movies each week. Kidding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1830138685733683603)  2024-09-01T07:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"My $NVDA model appeared to be targeting the red fib and that comes in around $104. The low today is $105 and the gap-fill comes in around $104.65. The mkt did a good job with NVDA technically making my $130 target obvious and then dropping it to the gap fill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1831078350112383071)  2024-09-03T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In the Discord I warned about today's top BEFORE and then AT it. Yes it was just a silly 61.8% retracement but easier seen on my ES/NQ composite. I then suggested an OVNL test. When it exceeded I just used fibs to project the next likely target. Can still go lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1832071287067607303)  2024-09-06T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RightforAmerica So uninformed to suggest SHE was the cause of inflation. After a FORTY YEAR drop in interest rates to ZERO they had a large bounce back to NORMAL levels. A global phenomenon. Now blame Harris the VP but no other world leaders of countries ALSO experiencing NORMAL inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1832084699440943167)  2024-09-06T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@localjulie1 @Grund1e @evieb52 @RightforAmerica He didn't cause a GLOBAL decline in real estate. These were NORMAL corrections due to inflated real estate GLOBALLY. Blame speculators and low interest rates that tricked buyers into paying top-dollar but don't blame Dems or Reps or the POTUS for a GLOBAL event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1832086298653495541)  2024-09-06T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@localjulie1 @Grund1e @evieb52 @RightforAmerica Sold my house '07 bought another in '10 from someone about to be foreclosed on. I used the TAX CREDITS that were given as incentives to BUY. The Fed was feverishly cutting interest rates making home more affordable and giving tax credits. Responses to a GLOBAL problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1832088638131470446)  2024-09-06T16:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"My model for $NQ has held support. Is the bottom in Nice gap up to start the week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1833129214557790639)  2024-09-09T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheRabbitHole84 @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @KamalaHarris It's because when his lips are moving.he's lying. At the end he STILL said she would stop fracking that she was the Border Czar the election was "stolen" and that the DOJ won all the trials unfairly. "I'm innocent of all charges The Dems sicked the DOJ on me" 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1833758667734478952)  2024-09-11T06:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@MarineF18ret @Jules31415 @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @KamalaHarris #6 Even FOX NEWS specifically said last week "She was NEVER appointed as Border Czar; she was tasked with researching WHY there was such an immigration movement." I heard the interview of the congressman that maliciously called Harris out and after Fox clarified. Fact check"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1833765524918112258)  2024-09-11T07:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@MarineF18ret @Jules31415 @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @KamalaHarris The leader is Biden. She's mostly a figurehead. Her job wasn't to take charge. Can you give ONE example of how what she says today is different from her actions (as you state) How should she lead If Vance is VP what exactly is he supposed to do under Trump"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1833767405954486758)  2024-09-11T07:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Got the gap fill this morning. Showing the $NQ and $ES and $YM composite trading down to the T-1 target. Yes it made it and the SPX gap was filled beautifully. Then right back up to break out above the range. Classic behavior Now pausing at the 127% fib"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1833934961902227799)  2024-09-11T18:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@elonmusk She's not in charge right now. No more than a Tesla or Morgan Stanley vice-president or JD Vance if he were vice president. When she is in office.as president"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1834114892560736516)  2024-09-12T06:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@kristen__beck Dominates What if Republican news outlet Fox News said this:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1834127095951204803)  2024-09-12T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@kristen__beck This is a logical fallacy. The mechanism is to attempt to make real the idea that she was the border czar and it's her fault that Haitians are eating animals One does not prove the other. Even Fox News stated she was NOT the BC and was only tasked to investigate immigration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1834131310375567439)  2024-09-12T07:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@kristen__beck The gimmick is to rile the public regarding illegal immigration pinning it on Harris to make Trump look better. Unreal I will remind you of what the vice president's duties are. What did Trump accomplish in [--] years of presidency Were our borders secured No. He was POTUS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1834132269700731127)  2024-09-12T07:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Robnum1R @TicTocTick How is the Fed pumping stocks Even TTT thought that chairman Powell would raise interest rates to get the stock market down. Instead it has rallied. I don't see how you can say that the Fed created the stock market rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1834644649144992082)  2024-09-13T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A nice reward My $NQ model does show reclaiming the six-week old level. Don't you think that the OVN gap will leave a vacuum of volume If they hold the breakout won't an LVN naturally appear here Those [--] red arrows are at the SAME level as the green one that divides the two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1836747362863292516)  2024-09-19T12:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".red rects and the two green rects. That is truly a "level" to be reckoned with Good luck finding that level on a volume profile going back [--] weeks. Remember today's fib levels are tomorrow's LVN levels. The HVNs will be in between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1836747364197126612)  2024-09-19T12:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Great day Now I warned in the discord about the potential for a speed failure and that has happened. Now at neckline of possible speed H&S which if activated will PRECEDE anything on $NQ PRICE. Need an edge since everyone loves to look at PRICE. Speed precedes price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1836797631802077218)  2024-09-19T16:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NVDA stopped at my model's ceiling again. It's really an important level to exceed still. (Yes I've posted this before.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1838996779985154256)  2024-09-25T17:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I noticed last night the failure but wasn't sharp enough to predate on $NVDA this morning. Was more enamored with the SPX LULU and COST trades (did get tagged on an NQ long btw)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1839676225985372361)  2024-09-27T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Trading_Balance And many traders say that the ON action is meaningless. If that's true then they should remove their stops since they don't matter or won't know where to put them. (Like unfortunate equities traders -- no stops.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1839765763852227028)  2024-09-27T20:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Benazirbadshah You are just an #AI #Chatbot born surreptitiously and simultaneously with the Kamala Harris nomination in July less than [--] months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1840420241136091578)  2024-09-29T15:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA reached its fib target and smart people are selling for profits. Today's deliveries will be the alibi. (I searched for my last TSLA tweet and reports that I have NO TSLA tweets that it can find. Whoa I've tweeted heavily on this) http://X.com http://X.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1841469669758124396)  2024-10-02T13:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I've been tweeting about $NQ reaching its downside tgt but here is $ES for the last two weeks. It was coiling yest and resolved to the upside today. Both speed and price broke out. Price returned to the prior breakdown/imbalance. Speed returned to its prior high. Purple speed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1842351748142248223)  2024-10-04T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Lotus_Trading20 It's a renko. I use renko range and tick for anything under daily. Purple speed is an indicator. I measure velocity about seven different ways and just refer to them by color now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1842659729467670699)  2024-10-05T20:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Lotus_Trading20 Yes It is odd that I came from software with binary everything and intentionally I live in this ambiguous trader state"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1842660303672123904)  2024-10-05T20:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@elonmusk GROK filled the video with people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1843099477789536274)  2024-10-07T01:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NQ good bounce at BBL but just reflexive for now. Speed arc needs respecting when touched. Range parameters are set for the moment. NVDA retraced to fill its OVN gap in the pre-mkt well before NQ was off the mat. It's likely back to a trouble spot but if NQ holds up up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1843290105869692965)  2024-10-07T13:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@realalexlains Everyone's against even minimal socialism until they can benefit from it (our military police social security /Medicare.). btw: I'm a Christian and registered Republican. I'm just tired of hearing lies and twisted truths about (not)-president Harris"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1843444123594043639)  2024-10-08T00:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NVDA model shows clearance and blue skies ahead (up to the next R level)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1843728888331153444)  2024-10-08T19:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@WallStreetApes There is no "Harris Administration" so your tweet is immediately discredited. If you mean "Biden Admin" do realize that he isn't FEMA he's POTUS. She's a figurehead VP like Pence was and Vance could be. Cite your source or you're just a liar. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/elon-musk-hurricane-disinformation-trump-00182769 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/elon-musk-hurricane-disinformation-trump-00182769"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1843852046346400102)  2024-10-09T03:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES on top. Green arrows telling the story. Bottom one was at OVNL (and horribly I was up to take a long there but was rewarded by the time I rolled out of bed). Hoping for a return to test the green rect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1844032909952663588)  2024-10-09T15:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NVDA (bottom pane). Modeling just Oct here and can see that there was a velocity downshift yesterday and today it's playing out as theta decay. Price isn't dropping but it's not being allowed to advance at the moment. Thinking that the green arrow tgts are where it upshifts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1844791729813164113)  2024-10-11T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES today. Just some observations. If you abhor EW then don't think of it as EW just observations. Observations lead to suppositions and conclusions/actions. We don't need to know the future now to profit from recognizing possibilities that arise at key junctures"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1844980085687792107)  2024-10-12T05:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@GenevaInvestor @SamRo You're right. Even the Fed has [---] PhDs at work and is always behind the curve. No Wall Street analysts in '08 foresaw the coming Great Recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1847640308877516845)  2024-10-19T14:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TicTocTick Is [----] still your target then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1849482180625355083)  2024-10-24T16:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ATPOtaku4Life @YouTube Glad you pointed out that it's not your video. I left a comment just now on it because it wasn't an accurate accounting of what happened. You might want to read what I said. Thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1850665625930141964)  2024-10-27T22:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$LLY had the velocity red ceiling followed by a BBL rejection and is likely headed to $768 for the gap fill. Hope you avoided it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1851619874763645171)  2024-10-30T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$RDDT - after bouncing at $49 at the 61.8% retrace a [---] fold move up to the green fib happened. Well this is true in the bottom chart (correct). The upper chart is wrong. Same lines wrong results. TOS NT TS SC do fibs wrong. TV is correct but only with the right setting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1852061077921546378)  2024-10-31T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Exiting my $NQ long here. The 3rd pane shows [--] red arrows. The shorts AND longs are bottoming/topping there. Plus pane #1 shows price reaching a 100% target based on the bottom and where the green fib was. Ain't it pretty how indicators DON'T LAG Don't fall for their lies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1853703254531530973)  2024-11-05T07:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES sold off during the night rebounded up to the 61.8% fib retracement and has dropped since. I would say that my sell yesterday was timed rather well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1856397775149363337)  2024-11-12T18:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@RamjetJ60 @WallStreetApes @elonmusk The US $ rose 28% after Biden was sworn in. It pulled back to digest the run and is moving higher again. If counterfeiting why is it a leading currency Do you see a pattern in the dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1859148579966685518)  2024-11-20T08:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$MSTR is done w/ [--] up and returning to [--]. Well ideally back to [--]. That's the norm. Fibs gave the tgt; equal sized blocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1859703084706037767)  2024-11-21T20:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Posted $MSTR yesterday. Didn't catch the green fib long at the low but did eventually and exited very near the red fib target"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1860028676932534390)  2024-11-22T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Do keep in mind that they filled the downside gaps from last week. This frees them to go LOWER. If today's gaps are filled and the mkt keeps dropping that's a good clue that the bears have the ball"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1861067811373674653)  2024-11-25T15:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Many bought the $NQ gap fill but they were futures traders oblivious to the equities traders. NDX and SPX gaps are effectively filled finally. This is where rubber meets the road. Any lower and more unfilled gaps look to be filled. W/o a fat gap overhead why go higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1861099143055258046)  2024-11-25T17:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$MSTR model working fabulously"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1861441595834290423)  2024-11-26T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"That "support" was quite ephemeral as expected from having the speed failure above. Yes "C" is underway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1861797323317108792)  2024-11-27T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@zakayonoel37 Have your software color code all the FVGs and you will find hundreds. Change your time frame from one minute to [--] minutes and note the changes in FVGs. Time frames are arbitrary constructs as are FVGs. There are six different kinds of non-FVGs. Understanding those is better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1862344535889621456)  2024-11-29T03:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It was shallow correction of about 58% of the rally off of the 11/15 low. Speed stopped at the blue fib and yet was deep enough to drop below the lows of w2 and w4 --- the min. From there through the candidate arc and a possible end to the full up/dn sequence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1863308407320518685)  2024-12-01T19:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"trailed out of Naz long as it reached T2 (red line) on flagging velocity. Hoping for more of a pullback but has already reached trending velocity support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1864351126432154106)  2024-12-04T16:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Bigger picture one of my $NQ / $NDX velocity models has this look. That trend up is in control still despite today's weakness. It has to fail to really upset markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1866152315129905570)  2024-12-09T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Would seem like that red resistance is the reason du jour for the drop. (above chart). In this chart I'm showing $ES and $NQ and a composite dropping in a 5th wave. NQ hasn't yet made that NLOD. Speed (bottom) is doing a good job of showing the w3 low and the w4 high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1866209568906199299)  2024-12-09T19:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA reached $407 today. Not calling top just pointing out that it was a fib target. I was in the zone this morning and traded it well --- it's a technician's dream if (s)he understands fibs and velocity. Next stop is [---] I believe. As usual not financial advice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1866512144679997926)  2024-12-10T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My $ES is on top and ES is at the bottom. Working its way down to the next level. Today's rally in the a.m. was rejected by the level at the red arrows. That's the expected behavior of the model. Everything else in the chart is velocity related"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1866578523764183383)  2024-12-10T20:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA reached [---] today. Another [--] to the target. Then I hope it rests a bit It's still the alpha leader right now outperforming TQQQ MSTR NVDL and META. Where else would speculators allocate their funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1867017599957209266)  2024-12-12T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES had a nice breakout on my model yesterday peaked at its "red ceiling" and retraced back to the origination. The bounce from there was OK but didn't hold on the velocity reads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1867314402950885535)  2024-12-12T21:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I walked the discord room through the move to the day's high gave the expectation of gap-fill dump where to expect S & R on the journey down and to expect the 38.2% retrace to be trouble. Shown: $ES $NQ and then the composite of them with $YM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1867615676581785722)  2024-12-13T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA has been outperforming $NVDA since June. There was a technical pattern activated that was giving impetus for this pairs trade to continue to at least today. It *can* continue but today's level seemed to bring about NVDA's strength off of the low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869134597105344909)  2024-12-17T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA taking a beating now but I did recognize the top this morning. Really it hinted at it last night with the outsized move DOWN while the market firmed. It was a GIFT to longs to fill the overnight gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869481452947014020)  2024-12-18T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES is coming in to the next fib target. These were obviously known PRIOR to the FOMC announcement. The entire day today highs were capped at the 61.8% retrace of the overnight drop. Lots of warnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869481869508780367)  2024-12-18T20:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Next level is [----] if it wants it. $ES March"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869482095984427429)  2024-12-18T20:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA made it down to the fib at 427.30"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869484920390955224)  2024-12-18T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA is down 10% on the day and I've only played it long until today. Flipped to short. But I waited for FOMC joined the trend and covered too early. (Not bragging about the trade but had cognizance of the shift from BTD to STR.) Helped that the velocity trend ended Tue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869493322999648606)  2024-12-18T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NQ / $NDX / $QQQ has enjoyed a two-year bull and the velocity trend for it broke in July. The move since then has served to back-test that broken trend. Today's drop stopped nicely on the velocity trend up since August. Another drop will break that trend too. Could be bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1869504350743384104)  2024-12-18T22:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@eileenkdan @TicTocTick Like most people he's been wrong occasionally. But he's been generally right. Sometimes incredibly right. His calls on dominoes regeneron Celsius Apple and Nvidia have retired people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1870533707267989901)  2024-12-21T18:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I covered a short yesterday at $NQ [-----] but wasn't smart enough click "Reverse". Did join the trend later though. Composite of ES/YM/NQ soon managed to retrace 61.8% of the two-day drop and then settled just above the 50% level. Sun. will be interesting. $GC interesting too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1870541583591813511)  2024-12-21T18:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Delgado21Angel Sorry; didn't see your post. Since June this chart shows the technical setup that favored TSLA over NVDA to where the initial green rect was doubled in size. If reversion brings their ratio back to that then NVDA continues to lead. For now the ratio needs to get below red"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1871039424689225737)  2024-12-23T03:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA is still in corrective mode since I posted here that the top was in. Its velocity dropped below the bull/bear line (1st derivative is less than zero) and heading lower on the 15-min time-frame. On a shorter TF it tested BBL three times today rejecting each time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1874226916213088576)  2024-12-31T22:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The composite of $TSLA $PLTR and $NVDL retraced to the 61.8% level of the 12/24 to 1/2 range after reaching the bottom green fib (a tgt that often reverses). I'm not usually a fan of "looking left" for prior levels but this group has a precedent for effectiveness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1875235471779143882)  2025-01-03T17:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Sm chart from 12/16/24 through yest. Lg chart since July. Composite of $ES $YM and $NQ Still not convinced this won't break these lows based on the dailies but I won't argue with this 5-min timeframe. Obvious ceiling here. "  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1875603866085171321)  2025-01-04T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES $NQ the composite (with $YM too) and one measure of velocity. At this point the takeaway is that yesterday's high almost reached the red-arrow target (blue typically is exceeded). Overnight markets retraced to the [----] and bears stepped in. Speed pinging like a champ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1876658199249715349)  2025-01-07T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I post this and more routinely in a Discord I'm in (no I receive no pay or fin'l benefits). My concerns of late have been about a mini-crash unfolding. I did play the long side for the move up (just look at those juicy fib level pings) and remain wary of what happens if"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1876658201854402720)  2025-01-07T15:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES Have alerted to the speed trend supporting the lows today AND warned of the twin tests/rejections of BBL (the bull/bear line). Very nice move down and back up. Unsure which breaks but the range has been set"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1877065377068282150)  2025-01-08T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Just pinging the fibs. $ES and $NQ both just retraced to the [----] and are back to trending bearishly after a little rebound this morning. From buy the dip back to sell the rip If the OVNL is taken out then yes. For now this could still be an opp. for bulls put in a W2L"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1878850348846330021)  2025-01-13T17:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"That W2 begat a nice W3 (or C). The 3rd chart here shows that the 4-hour close was near the Oct/Nov lows and rose to test last week's closing lows. Not the best spot to continue higher but it might. I exited my NVDA near the high in after-hours and $ES has dropped [--] pts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1878988862523072694)  2025-01-14T02:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ReesePolitics Why don't GME shareholders trade it technically and not HODL it It's a very good technical trader. The 1st thing a technical trader would do is compare GME to other stocks and then choose the stronger. Why B/c no one is forced to hold laggards. Even PLTR has gone 10x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1879403477274861995)  2025-01-15T05:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@eWhispers @elonmusk TSLA was also up at the 61.8% retracement of the drop from its ATH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1881755372593226206)  2025-01-21T17:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Have been warning of $es model possibly seeing a break (in the discord yest and earlier this a.m.). Got it and a drop directly to blue fib target. Blues don't usually hold and it has given way. Fibs on price show the retracement levels. Already at 50% so there is a battle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1887908134347255936)  2025-02-07T16:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Another view of my $ES models along with velocity. Reached some key levels at the gap-down open and has retraced back to the bull/bear line deciding if it resumes the down trend or keeps the rip going"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1888768299334328746)  2025-02-10T01:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"It's that giant red range on purple speed that is capping the market's rallies. Today I pointed out the speed failure in realtime in (someone else's) Discord at the red line/arrow above the most recent blue oval.then the speed trend fail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1895128574698651975)  2025-02-27T15:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"My next target for $ES: [----] assuming that OVNH isn't exceeded. On my model that OVNH is being rejected by Friday's LOD. It's a model thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1896855352018375035)  2025-03-04T09:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NQ managed to make a new "mini-crash" low on Friday but $ES held about [--] pts above its equivalent. The velocity support that ES found at the low is still present and can produce another bounce here or slightly lower. But other velocity measures of mine suggest more bull pain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1906455943099154748)  2025-03-30T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The 2-year bull mkt's range is shown here (height not width) and it's showing the loss of Sep's support. My crash call was for "more than the summer '24 drop" which was achieved today. But I think it'll do more For starters I'd like to see this return *to* the Aug lows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1907580462333362278)  2025-04-02T23:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The rally during ETH has allowed the $NQ gap to fill but $ES is still below it. Velocity returned to neutral on the bounce and that's often where trends resume whatever direction they'd started. So expecting lower but Europe gets its chance here too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1907687500719755396)  2025-04-03T06:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"At sell-off low overnight $ES bounced at 4/7's IB low. End of w1 of W5 A *fast* rebound occurred so fast that velocity exceeded all levels seen after yest's peak. That's what happens after a trend ends. Price retraced back to the prior W4. A new trend up or dn can emerge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1909893306328494343)  2025-04-09T08:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My $NQ model closed in a precarious position on Friday and today's open saw a 200-pt gap down. Still hoping for downward resolution ideally breaking my $ES model as well (NQ already has made new lows on its model shown here). Still prepared to take longs as they come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1914079626659590486)  2025-04-20T22:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TicTocTick True since the definition of a bear market is a 20% drawdown. That has yet to be seen. 20% is a bit arbitrary of course. And lots of stocks are down significantly more. Glad I called for a mini crash on 12/18. Context and velocity are everything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1914328830657106089)  2025-04-21T14:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"making a beeline . But there are other fibs to beat en route to the white 100% target. Just not showing them here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1915820512049303995)  2025-04-25T17:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Got to [---] $ES pts above the OVNH and they sold it. Was at the 76.4% fib. Really no guar they get to 100% but that's the norm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1915822206288044147)  2025-04-25T17:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The $NQ / $ES / $YM composite continues above that blue dashed line which provided some resistance earlier in the week but was overcome. Speed is *barely* above BBL now and until that pink divider fails remains supportive. I still trade shorter timeframes too to be on top"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1918320481410924820)  2025-05-02T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES dropped down to the same speed trend it picked up last night and it's been straight up since then. Still has to get past [--] which was the [----] earlier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1922674656131027034)  2025-05-14T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"showing just RTH for $ES. That purple speed support was what supported last night. It's all about $TSLA to [---] then 400"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1922678134492614868)  2025-05-14T15:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There's some hindsight in this. Most is quantitatively derived. $NQ is in bottom pane. Arcs and numbers are always subjective. $ES was on a gap-fill mission and just completed it. My tgt was [--] and it hit [-----]. Had to "believe" in such things of course. Velocity helped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1925237803602124986)  2025-05-21T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The power of order flow. No wait this is just pure math ;-) The first derivative couldn't reclaim a positive state so the function headed lower. A break above never happened. This is $ES on top (same outcome for $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NDX). The composite is in the middle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1928496202523300267)  2025-05-30T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES reached [----]. Not really rocket science. That last chart showed ES and the fib grid's green [----] level. Might expect R when re-approaching the 50%. Need to see how the mkt resolves the LL in velocity on the LOD on PRICE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1928505796175999116)  2025-05-30T17:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Overnight $ES and the composite held above the prior day's low and speed (bottom pane) held a pink support level (I bought at green and am long still). Gaps from Sun. open are now filled. This is where it gets tougher. Still thinking they'll pop that speed ceiling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1929532807862480913)  2025-06-02T13:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"You can see the rejection but then the successful bounce back at support. On a finer grain there's a hint of a speed trend and while extended from it if re-tested can bounce and keep this trending with faster speed. Of course if that fails then the lower pivots can too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1929548218318152028)  2025-06-02T14:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"In the bottom pane.speed exceeded the BBL and ran up to.(guess) The blue line which marked the high for the day. $NQ has since dropped [---] points. The power of SmithBands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1929791650827850114)  2025-06-03T06:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Where might speed go after rejecting at the blue band Yes back to test the breakout level. Can't make this stuff up. $ES on top the es/ym/nq composite below and the composite's speed in the bottom pane. Velocity leads functions; speed leads price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1929904827376775472)  2025-06-03T14:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ES is showing signs of a speed arc in control (basically an algo selling at velocity peaks. The speed failure is noted but while there's been a step-down in V there's hope of a step-up too. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NDX $NQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930290985873093000)  2025-06-04T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Speed dropped below the blue T-1 and that negates the step-up. Not looking good for the bulls from here. Have to assume trending lower but almost at green T-2 now where a bounce is reasonable. [----]. In a downtrend 1st speed touch isn't the best spot to long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930296978262655470)  2025-06-04T16:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Tight stop allowed and out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930668222564761660)  2025-06-05T16:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NQ got the NLOD (new low of day) and $ES held above. Don't think this bounce is the bottom but might only need just another dip. It held above that green band. Speed is reclaiming the green T-2 so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930670643441496353)  2025-06-05T16:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"In that buy zone but unable to reclaim the green S level. Can still work but needs a pop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930689114116083727)  2025-06-05T18:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"And yes the composite did get the new low of day. I did try the long in the zone was able to keep a tight stop and it simply didn't work. Instead it traded down to speed support (all the "I only look at price action" people saw the new lows on $ES and $NQ and didn't buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930691773661417539)  2025-06-05T18:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The speed sandwich resolved to the downside the range was lost and there's a good trend lower. Will know the EW count *after* it's done"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930707691003126152)  2025-06-05T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Same chart as last but w/o some markers b/c Tradestation crashed. (Temperamental 32-bit granddaddy app that it is.) But speed stayed negative throughout the downturn and went positive after. The arc breakouts are signs of continuance. $ES $NQ $NDX $SPX $QQQ $SPY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1930833159513657731)  2025-06-06T03:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Based on the Fri $NQ sell the Sun. drop 2x'd and it bottomed. Since then SPEED has remained in a green rect. An algo refuses to let speed slow. But another player is capping at lower highs. Fighting. Speed arcs supp and resistance --- all respected. $QQQ $NDX $SPY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1934628121174802784)  2025-06-16T15:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Update to the $NQ chart. Slight break in the green rect. The purple rect is the same size. Struggling at yet another step-down in speed (lower limit now). But price is still OTFU. $SPY $SPX $NDX $QQQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1934637966275780959)  2025-06-16T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Not sure if this is in the cards but June $NQ [-----] to [-----] seems interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1934683200393236885)  2025-06-16T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Another probe of the lows and then right back up to the [----] area on $NQ. Speed mostly respected the dashed green line. Hard to trade a 30-pt range in $ES when there's a 90-pt intraday range. Also a bit harder with contract rollover from June to Sep underway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1934704492169318809)  2025-06-16T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NQ reached the 161.8% extension theoretically b/c of the Trump post warning to evac Tehran. Earlier I said I was looking for [-----] to [-----]. Now [---]. Let's see if levels are respected or not. Not automatically buying there. $NDX $QQQ $SPY $SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1934742765088461011)  2025-06-16T22:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If mkts want to top here it's not a bad spot. I noticed a speed failure on the 16th. $NDX price is near ATH's and velocity is where it often rejects if it's a top. I noted a prior time where this limit was ignored but that was then and this is now $SPX $SPY $QQQ $ES $NQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1936564408123326770)  2025-06-21T23:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ES Gap down filled the Thu gap and right back up. Was there a POC/LVN/HVN involved😅 or did it bottom exactly where the T-2 fib target holds 50% of the time💯 Now rallying to fill today's gap down. Pretty strong but I'm not convinced it fills w/o a fight. $NQ $NDX $SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1936917943260254705)  2025-06-22T22:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I just posted a chart and a some tags no comments and X deleted it automatically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937146652604903434)  2025-06-23T13:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Let's try again. $NQ $NDX $ES $SPX $SPY $QQQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937155582240399852)  2025-06-23T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"speed failure produced the rejection. Yes it would have been nice if I warned when at the speed limit rejection level. If only I was trading live and pointing out these levels in real-time. 😆"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937172064932352447)  2025-06-23T15:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"6033 would make the echo equivalent (or to EW'ers C = A. For now C=76.4A ---- assuming this is just a pullback in an uptrend) Did reach the [----] retrace back up on QQQ (from Friday to today) so must sit quietly not knowing if a new trend up has emerged"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937173363853861317)  2025-06-23T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Who sold $ARKK after it had a "break out" above the IB high Why would anyone sell there Velocity trading sees what the "I only put PRICE on my screen b/c everything else is a derivative" people DON'T see. Isn't it ironic that their "derivative" is our 1st-derivative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937175305866932340)  2025-06-23T15:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


".I meant red T2. That has capped speed and yet blue T1 has supported. Speed sandwich for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937216223366050168)  2025-06-23T18:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A little T1 break a traversal to the 61.8% level of the T1-T2 range and right back up to a red ceiling. Bulls stepped up before BBL and bears stepped up to keep the series of LH's. $NQ $NDX $ES $SPX $QQQ $SPY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/smith_dad/status/1937235145872015778)  2025-06-23T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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