#  @sadandlonely_69 Pod Risk Manager Pod Risk Manager posts on X about $brsl, $stvn, $mtch, strong the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1276473774611841026/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +34% - [--] Month [-------] +1,100% - [--] Months [-------] +1,307% - [--] Year [-------] +11,283% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1276473774611841026/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] no change - [--] Month [---] +6.30% - [--] Months [---] +126% - [--] Year [---] +1,645% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1276473774611841026/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +130% - [--] Month [-----] +145% - [--] Months [-----] +415% - [--] Year [-----] +629% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1276473774611841026/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) #1088 [finance](/list/finance) 24% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 23% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) #6552 [countries](/list/countries) 5% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 2% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 1% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1% **Social topic influence** [$brsl](/topic/$brsl) #3, [$stvn](/topic/$stvn) #1, [$mtch](/topic/$mtch) #2, [strong](/topic/strong) #132, [$vno](/topic/$vno) #11, [$bf](/topic/$bf) #1, [$uber](/topic/$uber) #19, [money](/topic/money) 6%, [$srad](/topic/$srad) #18, [just a](/topic/just-a) 4% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@curious44315542](/creator/undefined) [@manuinvests](/creator/undefined) [@zissoucapital](/creator/undefined) [@haroldxue008](/creator/undefined) [@cmo040958](/creator/undefined) [@partnersroad](/creator/undefined) [@airbreather1980](/creator/undefined) [@torstenprochnow](/creator/undefined) [@mehtapraful123](/creator/undefined) [@hans1799697](/creator/undefined) [@siemprepulpo](/creator/undefined) [@balajikm](/creator/undefined) [@jason](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@jakeayes](/creator/undefined) [@itsintheprice](/creator/undefined) [@evcurvefuturist](/creator/undefined) [@mrneutralman](/creator/undefined) [@wolffinancial](/creator/undefined) [@ankurparikh](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)](/topic/$brsl) [Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN)](/topic/$stvn) [Match Group Inc (MTCH)](/topic/$mtch) [Veno Finance (VNO)](/topic/$vno) [Bitforex Token (BF)](/topic/$bf) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Sportradar Group AG (SRAD)](/topic/$srad) [Roper Technologies Inc (ROP)](/topic/$rop) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [DAR Open Network (DAR)](/topic/$dar) [Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX)](/topic/$rtx) [Infinitar (IGT)](/topic/$igt) [AMN Healthcare Services (AMN)](/topic/$amn) [DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG)](/topic/$dkng) [SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)](/topic/$slg) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. (WST)](/topic/$wst) [Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)](/topic/$apo) [Decentral Games (DG)](/topic/$dg) [AAR Corp. (AIR)](/topic/$air) [Boeing Co (BA)](/topic/$ba) [Hexcel Corporation (HXL)](/topic/$hxl) [T Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW)](/topic/$trow) [Devon Energy Corp (DVN)](/topic/$dvn) [Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA)](/topic/$ctra) [Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY)](/topic/$rely) [Toast, Inc. (TOST)](/topic/$tost) [Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR)](/topic/$loar) [TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)](/topic/$tdg) [Olin Corp. (OLN)](/topic/$oln) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$DVN / $CTRA anouncing their merger on a morning where crude is -5% due to Iran BS not materializing is not their fault but is a good proxy for the entire stupid industry. Anyways one less trash undifferentiated shale smashco. Won't be missed" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018318844415148155) 2026-02-02T13:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SLG in their Dec analyst day making a strong contribution to my running retarded slides collections. Yeah dudes let me update my NYC property comps based on uhhhh silver bitcoin and battery storage parks Absolute morons" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2020912438703460854) 2026-02-09T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$STVN read thru from $WST couldn't be better. GLP1 injectibles ripping destocking continuing to fade Annex [--] tailwind. Beat & Raise. Bang bang bang and bang" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1981339538690621673) 2025-10-23T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Every time I look at a growth fintech I end up passing because I cant understand why their newest growth avenue isnt just a high credit risk shit neobank. Sometimes that means I miss a gold mine $tost and other times it means I can still afford electricity $rely" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1988618498063433785) 2025-11-12T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ZissouCapital Yeah I bought some back tbh. Cons just seems very beatable to me on top line and margin" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1999214156809998346) 2025-12-11T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So if I understand correctly $LOAR is basically just a smaller $TDG but it trades at a 59% premium to TDG. Are people out of their fucking minds" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2002432445480906985) 2025-12-20T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As a dirty value guy who is only know starting to dig in that $ROP and friends are at 6% FCF yields all I can say is that its extremely funny that this software implosion is happening right after Mark Leonard explicitly said expect worse returns going forward $CSU 🫡" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2011554004535591220) 2026-01-14T21:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Little starter position in $ROP here. You cant bid one of the markets great compounders to a 6% FCF yield and not have me start to take a look" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2011871406993134063) 2026-01-15T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ROP it pops off the page that Harvey chose to partner with Aderant rather than go a new stack route. Don't take it from me: The future of legal technology is about making existing systems work together intelligently said Winston Weinberg CEO of Harvey" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2014730302275363154) 2026-01-23T16:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "There can be good reasons for it but optically I must concede that $ROP going [--] for [--] on "our segment's growth is 2H loaded" is very funny. Not great Bob" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2016188296850714909) 2026-01-27T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Theres a lot of terrible cyclicals that have a particular aptitude for putting up horrendous & shocking earnings but few do it quite like $OLN" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2017007409592443154) 2026-01-29T22:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@cmo040958 RTX valuation is (very) full but I continue to think theres upside to top line there. HXL I own too. Also very full valuation there admittedly but I think they can best out year estimates meaningfully" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019539025904955759) 2026-02-05T22:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thoughtful and reasonable question but I don't believe so. Uber will be able to offshore the VAST majority of the spend to partners. As existential as the AV question is for UBER it's quite clearly more existential for the OEMs. They will thus absorb a very significant portion of the spend (and are in early indicated partnerships). Even more important Uber is effectively going to offshore the cost of the build out to the entire stack of privately available capital. Individuals becoming (1 vehicle) fleet owners is obviously the Elon Musk dream. I don't know about that I think maybe the" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019769059106017651) 2026-02-06T13:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@mehtapraful123 This is admittedly possible. I take the other side that actually UBER numbers will remain very robust due to their own AV partners growing TAM and continued secular tailwinds as in the original post. But it could play out as you say" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2022695204457951280) 2026-02-14T15:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SRAD vs $DKNG is the pair trade here. Kalshi will take massive share in vanilla game odds. As such DKNG and peers will have to push even harder into spaces where Kalshi fundamentally can't compete due to mkt liquidity. I.e. live odds and parlays. The are money printers for SRAD" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1975637386827805084) 2025-10-07T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$BRSL the powerball is currently on its second fastest jackpot build ever and MegaMillions is at 575mm about to break 600mm. The pricing change has worked and grown the lotto pie. 4Q will be strong while they'll repo another 4% of shares out" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1976268950347579563) 2025-10-09T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "UK offers the best betting data by sport. Since [----] World Cup years have been associated with a 20% average increase in soccer betting. AVERAGE. Long $SRAD" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1976284507801256226) 2025-10-09T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The cadence of $SRAD [----] consensus earnings just follows normal seasonality but in actuality there is a World Cup in Juen and July such that they'll smash 2Q and 3Q top line" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1976368958128422974) 2025-10-09T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's not clear to me at all that $SRAD is a huge loser from prediction markets. In a [----] podcast their chief of strategy is talking about how their tech investments could help break the $DKNG duopoly. Albeit they probably didn't envision the new competitor being Kalshi" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1978825225035804837) 2025-10-16T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fantastic meme day here and good fun all around. But in all seriousness I need to sell my $SRAD and short the shit out of $DKNG right This is gonna have long lasting implications in how the leagues and news sites promote gambling (or dont promote)" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1981468184806056058) 2025-10-23T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$VNO progress in Penn continues to be fantastic. Apartments on that shitty empty corner by Moynihan will get filled by junior lawyers faster than you can blink. Metro North access in '27 is awesome. The horrible South Side of the blocks are already quickly improving. Quality finance tenants are already moving in https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985847102405017856 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985847102405017856" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1985847102405017856) 2025-11-04T23:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rotated the Nothing Ever Happens portfolio out of $APO and into $VNO. Easy stuff really. We are done with bankrupt auto lenders freakouts and we are onto gov grocery stores & rent freeze voting freakouts" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1986080920537817351) 2025-11-05T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Have been working down the margin for a while and working up cash balances but this is too juicy. Bought more $VNO" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1986110262370332799) 2025-11-05T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I am happy to announce that buying $VNO after Mamdani was once again free money. Every retard PM and risk manager in the country eagerly asked the analyst what happens if Mamdani makes profits illegal and appropriately derisked the exposure. Thanks for the shares Btw fundies remain rockstar https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986858173706477809 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986858173706477809" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1986858173706477809) 2025-11-07T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With great shame $STVN has lured me into the classic mistake of investing in Italians. Oh the black box segment is having "execution" issues. Oh vials destocking is over but 3Q volumes were down cuz you're allocating capacity to higher value products but 4Q weak too So you say" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1987178215761174742) 2025-11-08T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A while back my accountant asked for stock picks because I "know stocks". Told him I was mostly buying $GOOGL $BRSL and $STVN but mostly just GOOGL becuase nothing was passing the "is this better than GOOGL test." He bought the other [--] because Google was too big and well known" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1991158400957218879) 2025-11-19T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There is a cardinal rule of never invest in Europeans beyond which even worse is investing in Italians. The penalty for this is your wife asking why we're poor. That said $STVN 2H HVS sales of 141/quarter represent 27% y/y growth. Flatlining into [--] would imply that low value vials + engineering needs to do 133mm to meet 1Q cons. Given that segment has been averaging 155/q YTD and engineering q/q has stabilized while Low Value is comping modest positive more likely is in the [---] range for 1Q. Adjust for modest seasonality and not hard to see aggregate sales at the 290+ level or a 6% beat to" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1991213914424848611) 2025-11-19T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My accountant is NOT happy that I punted him into $STVN. Hit me with the line "aren't you supposed to be an industrials guy anyway". Good point sir" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1999130260034539523) 2025-12-11T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ZissouCapital @Hans1799697 @SiemprePulpo $STVN will never collapse the multiple discount as long as the factor profiles are what they are. Efficient mkt theorem says it shouldnt be such but life is life and as long as $WST is a large cap US based SPX name its gonna get a fat premium to midcap italian small floatco" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2002117056905556135) 2025-12-19T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$BF is starting to get more interesting. Industry barrels in storage still rising & way too high but likely to start drawing in [--]. BF specific inventory going to unwind. Little repo in place. Some pressures clearly cyclical not secular (tariffs). Dusting off the model" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2004943705099415971) 2025-12-27T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Still can't quite get there on $BF. Pricing has still been relatively ok but peak pricing pressure will be 26/27/28 as the 22/23 production wave hits. Margin estimates need to come lower" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2004958710381080702) 2025-12-27T16:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Guess I sold $DG too early. Sigh. Anyways theres a lot of interesting hunting grounds in consumer staples still. Of which alcohol is the most interesting yet. Once pricing cracks there will be a lot of killer entry points to forever brands" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2008566294501879966) 2026-01-06T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Refreshing my math and I did defend $STVN. If you were to step back from the oral vs injectable GLP1 hedge fund knife fight youd say that the primary themes of the market are 1) biotech funding environment improving 2) continuing pressure to onshore supply chains 3) biologics pipeline is strong. Meanwhile cash optionality increases in the next couple years. And as ever $STVN crushes it on a number of Porters [--] forces type shit. Must have product with high barriers to entry that is low % of final product value with diversified & competitive customer base and no real input risk to STVN. And as" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018731606567948450) 2026-02-03T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Deep moat profitable compounders getting brutalized into reasonable valuations right as we enter cash inflow season" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018756503675555890) 2026-02-03T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Idc about the aftermarket $MTCH sucks nuts. They can talk all they want about the non-investor level KPIs but the q/q performance degraded at Tinder and thus visibility to the Tinder y/y inflecting is now [----] at best vs mid-year this year. No one loves destruction of the share count more than me but at some point Tinder does need to stabilize https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018813827077308743 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018813827077308743" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018813827077308743) 2026-02-03T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Love $UBER print. Hard data about how AC is expanding the TAM (no fucking shit). Hard data showing the limited downside from near term Waymo expansion. Case for continued accel as customer acquisition & usage grows in non core cities (this is definitively true in regional alt data btw). Food continues to gain share. Keeping their repo bid on the stock. Ads accelerating 50% () y/y. Multipronged AV strategy that is also starting to scale now. That said they formally declared war on Waymo and that relationship with $GOOGL is now deader than dead. Also the rising capital intensity is a bummer and" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019040167114252368) 2026-02-04T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dumped all of my $MTCH. Stock ripping like this is a GIFT. Net user losses ACCELERATED this quarter. Idgaf about all your product talk if it is leading to opposite results. Its a two sided marketplace losing users at an accelerating rate. Not what you want" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019057514319421681) 2026-02-04T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Massachusetts reports aggregate rideshare consumption by municipality by year (because MA taxes it lol). Rideshare growth can be explained fairly well by using population income and income growth statistics. In general the smaller a population center the faster incomes are rising and the lower the rideshare penetration base (strongly correlated with the first two factors) then the faster rideshare consumption is growing. This is an elaborate way of saying that rideshare growth in the suburbs remains very strong and will for some time. Rideshare is an urban first luxury good so 1) consumption" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2005680936730427409) 2025-12-29T16:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Booking dinners in Bangkok and a 44% uplift from the [--] course to the [--] course seems like a lot. BUT I dont understand the currency at all and if the wife finds out I cheaped out she may ask tough questions about how much $STVN we own" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2014849733513069014) 2026-01-23T23:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Cash inflow coming and tempted to start defending $STVN here. Been a (no fun) position thus far but continue to see upside to top line and margin. The expansions are pre-sold. GLP-1s are 20-25% of the sales base. The balance of the portfolio remains well positioned both secularly (biologics pipeline remains big & growing) and tactically (Ebglyss). The engineering division remains uninspiring on its own basis but a very effective top of funnel tool to ensure they grab their fair share of where the money is made (reminds me of $AWI here). They're right side exposed to price elasticity pressures" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018712702395257295) 2026-02-03T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Seems impossible to look at the positioning and price data and not wonder how much of the SAAS blow up is pods and factor controlled models getting tapped on the shoulder" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018723196493844525) 2026-02-03T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Its fucking raining money right now and Im putting out a fucking bucket. There is a tremendous amount of angst about $UBERs share risk from Waymo et al but the fact is that they have COMPLETELY derisked intermediate top line estimates. 47% of Mass population lives in areas that are growing ride share consumption 20%. These lower density areas are the LAST that the AV players will be able to hit. And once they do there will be a lot more names in the game than just $GOOGL and $TSLA. Delivery is gaining share. Ads is growing 50% y/y (nice margin there that). They definitively bracketed that the" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019084001873633301) 2026-02-04T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ManuInvests" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019084476043714909) 2026-02-04T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Friendly reminder that the sell side industrial complex wants you to spend all day listening to calls about vague positioning & sentiment comments and calls about [----] thought pieces & scenarios. Cuz then youll trade it 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019515578478915864) 2026-02-05T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Everything in the market YTD seems positioning driven and not at all concerning. The SAAS selloff and white collar job fears seem simply cover for a 99th %ile crowded trade that unwound. Bitcoin factor performance sector positioning leveraged ETFs vol all tell the same story" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2020235654702198845) 2026-02-07T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Current $DAR 1Q cons is 299mm EBITDA. I'm penciling out to 400mm" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2020908279216410906) 2026-02-09T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Jesus fuck another one from the same deck. You lease office buildings not clear out tunnels in Nam $SLG" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2020913818369405299) 2026-02-09T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now that Hawaii is a one refinery & one importer system and the retail gasoline downstream is a [--] player oligopoly it's basically just a money transfer machine from the citizens to $PARR . HA will continue to move EV but with gasoline falling 1% per year rn it takes time" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2021226415350255992) 2026-02-10T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AIR is in Singapore talking about how they are going to raise their long term A350 target to at least [--]. Meanwhile they're also ramping competition with $BA on frieghters. $BA is at home focusing on prod. This is the $HXL thesis. Decade+ of clear visibilty growth. $RTX too" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2021261096623964350) 2026-02-10T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I own a material amount of $UBER and if the wife thought she could stop hearing about it she was WRONG. One of the first things that should jump out to you from 4Q results is that user counts were very strong. The first chart way down below is quarterly MAPC y/y which the last several quarters has been accelerating. Not bad for a company at such massive scale and n.b. that most SS models assume MAPC growth rates decelerate as that's a natural starting point assumption. There are several squishy reasons one could imagine why MAPC might be outperforming. Generally speaking two sided" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2021277597695365268) 2026-02-10T17:38Z [----] followers, 458.5K engagements "@ManuInvests @_balaji_km @Jason @BillAckman" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2021277894442422488) 2026-02-10T17:39Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements "Yeah this is admittedly possible although not necessarily guaranteed. You could for example see walled garden effects where each network restricts the ability of an agent to do such RFP. This is a possible valid outcome in any universe in which there is no single dominant player on both sides of the venn diagram intersection of cost per mile & availability. Obviously in that universe all the rent accrues to the single dominant provider of which I assume the most likely figure would be TSLA. As an aside the player who seems absolute cooked in every single one of these outcomes is $LYFT. I can" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2021686455332974866) 2026-02-11T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "No one has ever accused the brain trust at $DAR of being top tier capital allocators but tbf on this one buying a couple Brazilian rendering facilities out of BK at the bottom of the cycle is exactly what they should be doing" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2021964814382510516) 2026-02-12T15:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Everything feels very positioning driven and the remarkable sell offs in subsectors on poorly verified headlines from questionable & previously anonymous AI entities feels particularly frenetic. Fading some staples a good way to play. SS has $BF margins up into record supply" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2022045089040826406) 2026-02-12T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jake_ayes I havent found any close to this. There are a couple regions like the UK or aussie that release some data sets that are weakly supportive but only if you believe it as a prior. Its stuff like rideshare licenses in ex London regions growing shitload above in London" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2022821051089195095) 2026-02-14T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Its also fantastic that the burgeoning AV networks are all starting by fighting in the same cities. Will demonstrably start growing the TAM but more so will create segmentation & utilization scale challenges. Beneficial to the largest & the incumbent $UBER" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2014480822129078305) 2026-01-22T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Singapore cabbie telling me to download Tinder so I can get a girl to be my tour guide. Hadnt built Singapore hookers into my $MTCH model. Not sure if hes a view on if Hinge is the best app for a real girlfriend search" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1983709128196542798) 2025-10-30T01:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If you don't enjoy $SM / $CIVI you don't enjoy energy. In other sectors one half of an M&A deal typically goes up" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1985385969038533023) 2025-11-03T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@partners_road $TROW is the easiest shrinking ice cube short in market. Every year net outflows drive more fee pressure which drives out talent and lowers research budgets making the underperformance & outflow problem even more structural" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2008937306842178004) 2026-01-07T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Lord give me the strength not to add $DAR $CLMT" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2014013821736673502) 2026-01-21T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$RTX valuation remains full but no holes in the fundies. Can continue to beat and raise through [--]. Defense just unbelievably well aligned in Air Defense Missiles and Radar. P&W + Collins in the midst of a commercial supercycle + P&W leading in defense. Comfortable name" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2016147504966816085) 2026-01-27T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The sellside is trapped in a cycle. The short term earnings is a very well understood nowcast of highly visible commodity prices. And the most important clients are the pods translating that nowcast into a short term beat or miss. Because that drives price action and explaining this fucking name is hilariously hard and it's an illiquid non-revenue driver for banks the easiest course of action is just to steadily follow the now cast. The most interesting & knolwedgeable analysts to talk to here are the ones who have a buy on it but a relatively uninspiring earnings forecast and their logic is" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2016240384746389674) 2026-01-27T20:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ManuInvests Perfect kind of encapsulation of the push pull. Investing hard for the big win so biz def getting more capital intensive. But real chance at winning. Long both $UBER and $GOOGL. Inshallah at least one wins" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2016613916994863285) 2026-01-28T20:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fine with $IGT outcome. Nothing ever happens meme. Higher bid at low cost of capital so raise the cash outflow but multiple was a joke to start with. Still have massive cap returns after deal close and huge FCF Inflection in [--]. Ests rise in meantime w Italy higher cut" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1924464310668939578) 2025-05-19T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Accountant called me for stock advice. Oh honey you can call better people. Anyways welcome to my theories of high price elasticity to flows $BRSL $MTCH $GOOGL" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1950581718512996432) 2025-07-30T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The two massive ASRs after a big sell off and complicated news that are prominent in my mind are $RTX and $EA. Both were home runs. Are there any big ASRs that didnt work See $BRSL as next man up" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1950590853476495857) 2025-07-30T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So $BRSL is going to show 3Q financials with a big beat and a massive deleveraging event from 7/1 and a reduction in the market cap of 4%. And mega millions is [---] jackpot now. Acceleration begins at 400" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1963562201068777575) 2025-09-04T11:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BRSL Megamillions now up to 400mm jackpot. 400mm tends to be an acceleration point and Google trends is indeed inflecting. Odds are this runs all next week given the per person winning chances. Starting to look like a monster quarter right as they repo 9% of shares too" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1966879751957840077) 2025-09-13T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "At current build rates the oddds of the megamillions being won in a draw are about 4.3%. That gives us a 75% chance of getting to 500mm by the 10/3 draw. Historically cohort MM builds tripled once it goes from a [--] handle to a [--]. $BRSL will report and guide end Oct. LONG" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1968331707981148253) 2025-09-17T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Added to $BRSL. I estimate a 25% chance that mega millions has done a run past 1bn as of when they report. I estimate a 85% chance its still building through end Sept" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1968697492641366521) 2025-09-18T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BRSL no megamillions winner and jackpot up 28mm to 451mm. This build is up from 23mm prior and is analagous to average build rates in the 400mm from 4Q24 (last precedent MM jackpot). 90% chance we're still building at end 3Q and should be over 500mm by then. 10% chance of 1.5bn" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1969409523560415456) 2025-09-20T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Entering 4Q with a very strong set up for $BRSL multi state. There's a 62% chance Megamillions gets to 1bn+. Powerball is already at 174mm. There's about a 66% chance we get at least one 1bn+ jackpot. This is also where higher ticket MM can shine. 20% chance of 2bn+" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1973381643109822538) 2025-10-01T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bought more $BRSL. Base case is that we grind into the 3Q report with both Multistate jackpots building to fairly significant numbers. Outside chance MM gets out of control big and immediately shows the power of the $5 ticket pricing change. All while massive repo plays out" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1973383364452266322) 2025-10-01T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As Megamillions and Powerball continue to trundle along there is now a 75% chance of a 1bn jackpot this quarter $BRSL" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1978445544457421073) 2025-10-15T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BRSL megamillions keeps building and is now 750mm. 80% chance it crosses 1bn" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1983698385455776149) 2025-10-30T00:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MTCH and $BRSL earnings preview: Earnings bad on poor & young people murdered by inflation. Market dynamics strong on massive repos in a market dictated by flows (passives pods and retail)" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1985442074531872924) 2025-11-03T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MTCH is good. Q/Q payer trends improving and payer y/y should flip positive in mid-26. 90mm in apple tax savings is a big number. Margins very strong and we know the cash is gonna keep going right towards destroying the share count. New features are getting shipped and some are actually cool (in particular modes is a good way to segment the user base). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985831922400969157 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985831922400969157" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1985831922400969157) 2025-11-04T22:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@itsintheprice @partners_road Yea Im basically always long $APO short $TROW and depending on the particular moment in time calls on capital etc I have a net short or long between them" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2008946878218395650) 2026-01-07T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@EVCurveFuturist Oil demand is so fucked. Disty and gasoline have peaked and China and will start being meaningfully negative growth rates" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2014322923905982610) 2026-01-22T13:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Trump is generally locked [--] years in the economic past so it's not surprising that he would kick off his midterms work by going to fuck nowhere Iowa. In any event this particular grift is going to accrue to the ags bros as RVO won't disappoint. $DAR $BG $CLMT $ADM" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2016160688721301733) 2026-01-27T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Continue to see upside to long term topline for $HXL. $AIR and $BA ramps bring you close to sell side. Then you get other OEM growth. Then you get a LSD boost from contract repricings per year (which has massive flowthru to margin). There's a comp for the repricings btw in $HWM" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018404480237068490) 2026-02-02T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Im definitely tempted here ngl. My original thesis was internal flows (ie repo) plus demonstrated long term brand viability of tinder + berating as tinder product revamp led to stabilization ahead of street. [--] obviously remains bang on [--] ok tinder wont go to zero [--] thesis creep do I allow it or nah https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018819723329200406 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018819723329200406" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2018819723329200406) 2026-02-03T22:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Agree on defense but even more than that I think its the pricing for HXL. A ton of their contracts (somewhat fairly) were long duration fixed price and didnt anticipate this cost inflation environment. Those steadily reprice at a decent cadence now. Id have to check my notes to see exactly. But they will get meaningful revenue uplift as they do. I think the HWM contract repricing story when plant came in is a good precedent. Also tbh I would go so far as to call the next half decade an OEM supercycle https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019547614283219219" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2019547614283219219) 2026-02-05T23:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "On another note the legal case that $MTCH is referencing is actually interesting. Back in the day they were massively jacking up price for older cohorts to incredible effect. Kind of a dark forecast on where tech can take discriminatory pricing" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1985832263855087648) 2025-11-04T22:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I have no idea what $MTCH is doing with this latest AI bullshit & Hinge transition. I can only assume that it's some sort of dystopian look into the future when we're all dating computers (big TAM) and I can only assume that it means Hinge's 4Q sucks. Par for the course really" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1998516771519635725) 2025-12-09T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$IGT / $BRSL is so funny. For ages the capital returns were the thesis and then the capital returns get announced & start and whoops what do you know stock goes vertical" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1943034349567246524) 2025-07-09T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Closing out some of the $VNO bought after Zohran won. That was for real free money" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1945505481969340830) 2025-07-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There is no compelling & consistent intellectual basis for ex ante setting the multiple of a stock. A 5.5% dividend is the same thing as a 3% dividend other than an 83% delta in stock price. What is real is an ASR for 9% of the mkt cap and 15% of the float. $BRSL $IGT" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1950187308944077303) 2025-07-29T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IGT / $BRSL is an unbelievable set up here. MASSIVE incoming flow. Comparable to $MPC Speedway and dominates the $RTX post P&W fuck up ASR. Meanwhile valuation on ass dividend just raised and both major lottos are 100mm right now. LONG" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1950188491855245702) 2025-07-29T13:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$VNO leasing out 195k square feet to Verizon at Penn [--]. CSGP reporting rent of [---]. Great number. Penn [--] continues to fill with very high quality tenants" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1950561230650737068) 2025-07-30T14:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Under [--] Alcohol Spending as a % of income historically correlates with the u25 unemployment rate very well. If I was [--] living with my parents with no job & no money and prices were going up then I also wouldn't drink any alcohol $BUD $DEO $BF $TAP" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1970917235247186341) 2025-09-24T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Total Spirits revenue declined in [----] but volume actually rose 1%. The action was in trade down as super premium fell 5% and value grew 4.5%. Narrative violation on alcohol is dead but consistent with inflation killing people $BF" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1971263473062670469) 2025-09-25T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sell side assumes EBITDA margins below historical averages basically forever for $BF. Set up reminds me a lot of $DG last fall" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1971642915819868509) 2025-09-26T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Holding off on alcohol complex for now. Going to wait for [--] of three buy signals on $BF: Kentucky barrels in storage start falling wholesale spec barrel prices start rising or $BF moves capital allocation to repos in a big way" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1972678369675268562) 2025-09-29T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Mr_Neutral_Man $VNO is arguably easier & better here on a risk reward basis than back in [--]. You can literally just go to PENN and see the vision has worked. Its already attracting top tier finance and corporates" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1980703069617942783) 2025-10-21T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PARR is very vulnerable here. West Coast cracks have come back to earth. Billings is going to be weak through the winter. Washington EV / LCFS pressures are displacing Billings also. Implied SAF valuation for PARR way out of whack to the rest of the space" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1998053509472612748) 2025-12-08T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Having bought $AMN on a complete lark decided to do some real research and speak to a CMO. -It was surprising to me that their prior was that staffing is probably generally a solid biz although AMN was a name they were only casually familiar with. Not their main partner here -what broke the COVID positive feedback loop in the travel nurse market was less the hospital groups building their own staffing teams and more that they just explicitly and implicitly threatened the older nurses that if you quit to travel we will not give you your old job back. Itll be with someone lower on the union" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/1995516035781259651) 2025-12-01T15:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@WOLF_Financial $JOE $AMN" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2009464117380194574) 2026-01-09T03:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AMN is very funny because usually twitter theses are exceptionally bad but that one dude was actually data first. Just exceptionally rare to see alt data led with on Twitter. And it was really trivially easy to verify said data that there was just no way top line didnt beat" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2011486934741188923) 2026-01-14T17:13Z [----] followers, 13.3K engagements "Mood rn. Wife did NOT find it funny (it is actually just a 1% position) (I actually did real work after) $AMN" [X Link](https://x.com/sadandlonely_69/status/2011825001750548577) 2026-01-15T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@sadandlonely_69 Pod Risk Manager
Pod Risk Manager posts on X about $brsl, $stvn, $mtch, strong the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-------] +34%
- [--] Month [-------] +1,100%
- [--] Months [-------] +1,307%
- [--] Year [-------] +11,283%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [---] +6.30%
- [--] Months [---] +126%
- [--] Year [---] +1,645%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +130%
- [--] Month [-----] +145%
- [--] Months [-----] +415%
- [--] Year [-----] +629%
CreatorRank: [------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks #1088 finance 24% cryptocurrencies 23% technology brands #6552 countries 5% travel destinations 2% financial services 1% social networks 1%
Social topic influence $brsl #3, $stvn #1, $mtch #2, strong #132, $vno #11, $bf #1, $uber #19, money 6%, $srad #18, just a 4%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @curious44315542 @manuinvests @zissoucapital @haroldxue008 @cmo040958 @partnersroad @airbreather1980 @torstenprochnow @mehtapraful123 @hans1799697 @siemprepulpo @balajikm @jason @billackman @jakeayes @itsintheprice @evcurvefuturist @mrneutralman @wolffinancial @ankurparikh
Top assets mentioned Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) Match Group Inc (MTCH) Veno Finance (VNO) Bitforex Token (BF) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) Roper Technologies Inc (ROP) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) DAR Open Network (DAR) Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX) Infinitar (IGT) AMN Healthcare Services (AMN) DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG) SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) Bitcoin (BTC) West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. (WST) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Decentral Games (DG) AAR Corp. (AIR) Boeing Co (BA) Hexcel Corporation (HXL) T Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW) Devon Energy Corp (DVN) Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Toast, Inc. (TOST) Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG) Olin Corp. (OLN)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$DVN / $CTRA anouncing their merger on a morning where crude is -5% due to Iran BS not materializing is not their fault but is a good proxy for the entire stupid industry. Anyways one less trash undifferentiated shale smashco. Won't be missed"
X Link 2026-02-02T13:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SLG in their Dec analyst day making a strong contribution to my running retarded slides collections. Yeah dudes let me update my NYC property comps based on uhhhh silver bitcoin and battery storage parks Absolute morons"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$STVN read thru from $WST couldn't be better. GLP1 injectibles ripping destocking continuing to fade Annex [--] tailwind. Beat & Raise. Bang bang bang and bang"
X Link 2025-10-23T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Every time I look at a growth fintech I end up passing because I cant understand why their newest growth avenue isnt just a high credit risk shit neobank. Sometimes that means I miss a gold mine $tost and other times it means I can still afford electricity $rely"
X Link 2025-11-12T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZissouCapital Yeah I bought some back tbh. Cons just seems very beatable to me on top line and margin"
X Link 2025-12-11T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So if I understand correctly $LOAR is basically just a smaller $TDG but it trades at a 59% premium to TDG. Are people out of their fucking minds"
X Link 2025-12-20T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As a dirty value guy who is only know starting to dig in that $ROP and friends are at 6% FCF yields all I can say is that its extremely funny that this software implosion is happening right after Mark Leonard explicitly said expect worse returns going forward $CSU 🫡"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Little starter position in $ROP here. You cant bid one of the markets great compounders to a 6% FCF yield and not have me start to take a look"
X Link 2026-01-15T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ROP it pops off the page that Harvey chose to partner with Aderant rather than go a new stack route. Don't take it from me: The future of legal technology is about making existing systems work together intelligently said Winston Weinberg CEO of Harvey"
X Link 2026-01-23T16:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"There can be good reasons for it but optically I must concede that $ROP going [--] for [--] on "our segment's growth is 2H loaded" is very funny. Not great Bob"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Theres a lot of terrible cyclicals that have a particular aptitude for putting up horrendous & shocking earnings but few do it quite like $OLN"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@cmo040958 RTX valuation is (very) full but I continue to think theres upside to top line there. HXL I own too. Also very full valuation there admittedly but I think they can best out year estimates meaningfully"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thoughtful and reasonable question but I don't believe so. Uber will be able to offshore the VAST majority of the spend to partners. As existential as the AV question is for UBER it's quite clearly more existential for the OEMs. They will thus absorb a very significant portion of the spend (and are in early indicated partnerships). Even more important Uber is effectively going to offshore the cost of the build out to the entire stack of privately available capital. Individuals becoming (1 vehicle) fleet owners is obviously the Elon Musk dream. I don't know about that I think maybe the"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@mehtapraful123 This is admittedly possible. I take the other side that actually UBER numbers will remain very robust due to their own AV partners growing TAM and continued secular tailwinds as in the original post. But it could play out as you say"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SRAD vs $DKNG is the pair trade here. Kalshi will take massive share in vanilla game odds. As such DKNG and peers will have to push even harder into spaces where Kalshi fundamentally can't compete due to mkt liquidity. I.e. live odds and parlays. The are money printers for SRAD"
X Link 2025-10-07T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BRSL the powerball is currently on its second fastest jackpot build ever and MegaMillions is at 575mm about to break 600mm. The pricing change has worked and grown the lotto pie. 4Q will be strong while they'll repo another 4% of shares out"
X Link 2025-10-09T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"UK offers the best betting data by sport. Since [----] World Cup years have been associated with a 20% average increase in soccer betting. AVERAGE. Long $SRAD"
X Link 2025-10-09T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The cadence of $SRAD [----] consensus earnings just follows normal seasonality but in actuality there is a World Cup in Juen and July such that they'll smash 2Q and 3Q top line"
X Link 2025-10-09T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's not clear to me at all that $SRAD is a huge loser from prediction markets. In a [----] podcast their chief of strategy is talking about how their tech investments could help break the $DKNG duopoly. Albeit they probably didn't envision the new competitor being Kalshi"
X Link 2025-10-16T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fantastic meme day here and good fun all around. But in all seriousness I need to sell my $SRAD and short the shit out of $DKNG right This is gonna have long lasting implications in how the leagues and news sites promote gambling (or dont promote)"
X Link 2025-10-23T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VNO progress in Penn continues to be fantastic. Apartments on that shitty empty corner by Moynihan will get filled by junior lawyers faster than you can blink. Metro North access in '27 is awesome. The horrible South Side of the blocks are already quickly improving. Quality finance tenants are already moving in https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985847102405017856 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985847102405017856"
X Link 2025-11-04T23:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rotated the Nothing Ever Happens portfolio out of $APO and into $VNO. Easy stuff really. We are done with bankrupt auto lenders freakouts and we are onto gov grocery stores & rent freeze voting freakouts"
X Link 2025-11-05T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Have been working down the margin for a while and working up cash balances but this is too juicy. Bought more $VNO"
X Link 2025-11-05T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I am happy to announce that buying $VNO after Mamdani was once again free money. Every retard PM and risk manager in the country eagerly asked the analyst what happens if Mamdani makes profits illegal and appropriately derisked the exposure. Thanks for the shares Btw fundies remain rockstar https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986858173706477809 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986858173706477809"
X Link 2025-11-07T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With great shame $STVN has lured me into the classic mistake of investing in Italians. Oh the black box segment is having "execution" issues. Oh vials destocking is over but 3Q volumes were down cuz you're allocating capacity to higher value products but 4Q weak too So you say"
X Link 2025-11-08T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A while back my accountant asked for stock picks because I "know stocks". Told him I was mostly buying $GOOGL $BRSL and $STVN but mostly just GOOGL becuase nothing was passing the "is this better than GOOGL test." He bought the other [--] because Google was too big and well known"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There is a cardinal rule of never invest in Europeans beyond which even worse is investing in Italians. The penalty for this is your wife asking why we're poor. That said $STVN 2H HVS sales of 141/quarter represent 27% y/y growth. Flatlining into [--] would imply that low value vials + engineering needs to do 133mm to meet 1Q cons. Given that segment has been averaging 155/q YTD and engineering q/q has stabilized while Low Value is comping modest positive more likely is in the [---] range for 1Q. Adjust for modest seasonality and not hard to see aggregate sales at the 290+ level or a 6% beat to"
X Link 2025-11-19T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My accountant is NOT happy that I punted him into $STVN. Hit me with the line "aren't you supposed to be an industrials guy anyway". Good point sir"
X Link 2025-12-11T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZissouCapital @Hans1799697 @SiemprePulpo $STVN will never collapse the multiple discount as long as the factor profiles are what they are. Efficient mkt theorem says it shouldnt be such but life is life and as long as $WST is a large cap US based SPX name its gonna get a fat premium to midcap italian small floatco"
X Link 2025-12-19T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BF is starting to get more interesting. Industry barrels in storage still rising & way too high but likely to start drawing in [--]. BF specific inventory going to unwind. Little repo in place. Some pressures clearly cyclical not secular (tariffs). Dusting off the model"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Still can't quite get there on $BF. Pricing has still been relatively ok but peak pricing pressure will be 26/27/28 as the 22/23 production wave hits. Margin estimates need to come lower"
X Link 2025-12-27T16:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Guess I sold $DG too early. Sigh. Anyways theres a lot of interesting hunting grounds in consumer staples still. Of which alcohol is the most interesting yet. Once pricing cracks there will be a lot of killer entry points to forever brands"
X Link 2026-01-06T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Refreshing my math and I did defend $STVN. If you were to step back from the oral vs injectable GLP1 hedge fund knife fight youd say that the primary themes of the market are 1) biotech funding environment improving 2) continuing pressure to onshore supply chains 3) biologics pipeline is strong. Meanwhile cash optionality increases in the next couple years. And as ever $STVN crushes it on a number of Porters [--] forces type shit. Must have product with high barriers to entry that is low % of final product value with diversified & competitive customer base and no real input risk to STVN. And as"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Deep moat profitable compounders getting brutalized into reasonable valuations right as we enter cash inflow season"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Idc about the aftermarket $MTCH sucks nuts. They can talk all they want about the non-investor level KPIs but the q/q performance degraded at Tinder and thus visibility to the Tinder y/y inflecting is now [----] at best vs mid-year this year. No one loves destruction of the share count more than me but at some point Tinder does need to stabilize https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018813827077308743 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018813827077308743"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Love $UBER print. Hard data about how AC is expanding the TAM (no fucking shit). Hard data showing the limited downside from near term Waymo expansion. Case for continued accel as customer acquisition & usage grows in non core cities (this is definitively true in regional alt data btw). Food continues to gain share. Keeping their repo bid on the stock. Ads accelerating 50% () y/y. Multipronged AV strategy that is also starting to scale now. That said they formally declared war on Waymo and that relationship with $GOOGL is now deader than dead. Also the rising capital intensity is a bummer and"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dumped all of my $MTCH. Stock ripping like this is a GIFT. Net user losses ACCELERATED this quarter. Idgaf about all your product talk if it is leading to opposite results. Its a two sided marketplace losing users at an accelerating rate. Not what you want"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Massachusetts reports aggregate rideshare consumption by municipality by year (because MA taxes it lol). Rideshare growth can be explained fairly well by using population income and income growth statistics. In general the smaller a population center the faster incomes are rising and the lower the rideshare penetration base (strongly correlated with the first two factors) then the faster rideshare consumption is growing. This is an elaborate way of saying that rideshare growth in the suburbs remains very strong and will for some time. Rideshare is an urban first luxury good so 1) consumption"
X Link 2025-12-29T16:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Booking dinners in Bangkok and a 44% uplift from the [--] course to the [--] course seems like a lot. BUT I dont understand the currency at all and if the wife finds out I cheaped out she may ask tough questions about how much $STVN we own"
X Link 2026-01-23T23:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Cash inflow coming and tempted to start defending $STVN here. Been a (no fun) position thus far but continue to see upside to top line and margin. The expansions are pre-sold. GLP-1s are 20-25% of the sales base. The balance of the portfolio remains well positioned both secularly (biologics pipeline remains big & growing) and tactically (Ebglyss). The engineering division remains uninspiring on its own basis but a very effective top of funnel tool to ensure they grab their fair share of where the money is made (reminds me of $AWI here). They're right side exposed to price elasticity pressures"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Seems impossible to look at the positioning and price data and not wonder how much of the SAAS blow up is pods and factor controlled models getting tapped on the shoulder"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its fucking raining money right now and Im putting out a fucking bucket. There is a tremendous amount of angst about $UBERs share risk from Waymo et al but the fact is that they have COMPLETELY derisked intermediate top line estimates. 47% of Mass population lives in areas that are growing ride share consumption 20%. These lower density areas are the LAST that the AV players will be able to hit. And once they do there will be a lot more names in the game than just $GOOGL and $TSLA. Delivery is gaining share. Ads is growing 50% y/y (nice margin there that). They definitively bracketed that the"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ManuInvests"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Friendly reminder that the sell side industrial complex wants you to spend all day listening to calls about vague positioning & sentiment comments and calls about [----] thought pieces & scenarios. Cuz then youll trade it 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Everything in the market YTD seems positioning driven and not at all concerning. The SAAS selloff and white collar job fears seem simply cover for a 99th %ile crowded trade that unwound. Bitcoin factor performance sector positioning leveraged ETFs vol all tell the same story"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Current $DAR 1Q cons is 299mm EBITDA. I'm penciling out to 400mm"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jesus fuck another one from the same deck. You lease office buildings not clear out tunnels in Nam $SLG"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now that Hawaii is a one refinery & one importer system and the retail gasoline downstream is a [--] player oligopoly it's basically just a money transfer machine from the citizens to $PARR . HA will continue to move EV but with gasoline falling 1% per year rn it takes time"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AIR is in Singapore talking about how they are going to raise their long term A350 target to at least [--]. Meanwhile they're also ramping competition with $BA on frieghters. $BA is at home focusing on prod. This is the $HXL thesis. Decade+ of clear visibilty growth. $RTX too"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I own a material amount of $UBER and if the wife thought she could stop hearing about it she was WRONG. One of the first things that should jump out to you from 4Q results is that user counts were very strong. The first chart way down below is quarterly MAPC y/y which the last several quarters has been accelerating. Not bad for a company at such massive scale and n.b. that most SS models assume MAPC growth rates decelerate as that's a natural starting point assumption. There are several squishy reasons one could imagine why MAPC might be outperforming. Generally speaking two sided"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:38Z [----] followers, 458.5K engagements
"@ManuInvests @_balaji_km @Jason @BillAckman"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:39Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements
"Yeah this is admittedly possible although not necessarily guaranteed. You could for example see walled garden effects where each network restricts the ability of an agent to do such RFP. This is a possible valid outcome in any universe in which there is no single dominant player on both sides of the venn diagram intersection of cost per mile & availability. Obviously in that universe all the rent accrues to the single dominant provider of which I assume the most likely figure would be TSLA. As an aside the player who seems absolute cooked in every single one of these outcomes is $LYFT. I can"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"No one has ever accused the brain trust at $DAR of being top tier capital allocators but tbf on this one buying a couple Brazilian rendering facilities out of BK at the bottom of the cycle is exactly what they should be doing"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Everything feels very positioning driven and the remarkable sell offs in subsectors on poorly verified headlines from questionable & previously anonymous AI entities feels particularly frenetic. Fading some staples a good way to play. SS has $BF margins up into record supply"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jake_ayes I havent found any close to this. There are a couple regions like the UK or aussie that release some data sets that are weakly supportive but only if you believe it as a prior. Its stuff like rideshare licenses in ex London regions growing shitload above in London"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its also fantastic that the burgeoning AV networks are all starting by fighting in the same cities. Will demonstrably start growing the TAM but more so will create segmentation & utilization scale challenges. Beneficial to the largest & the incumbent $UBER"
X Link 2026-01-22T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Singapore cabbie telling me to download Tinder so I can get a girl to be my tour guide. Hadnt built Singapore hookers into my $MTCH model. Not sure if hes a view on if Hinge is the best app for a real girlfriend search"
X Link 2025-10-30T01:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If you don't enjoy $SM / $CIVI you don't enjoy energy. In other sectors one half of an M&A deal typically goes up"
X Link 2025-11-03T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@partners_road $TROW is the easiest shrinking ice cube short in market. Every year net outflows drive more fee pressure which drives out talent and lowers research budgets making the underperformance & outflow problem even more structural"
X Link 2026-01-07T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Lord give me the strength not to add $DAR $CLMT"
X Link 2026-01-21T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RTX valuation remains full but no holes in the fundies. Can continue to beat and raise through [--]. Defense just unbelievably well aligned in Air Defense Missiles and Radar. P&W + Collins in the midst of a commercial supercycle + P&W leading in defense. Comfortable name"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The sellside is trapped in a cycle. The short term earnings is a very well understood nowcast of highly visible commodity prices. And the most important clients are the pods translating that nowcast into a short term beat or miss. Because that drives price action and explaining this fucking name is hilariously hard and it's an illiquid non-revenue driver for banks the easiest course of action is just to steadily follow the now cast. The most interesting & knolwedgeable analysts to talk to here are the ones who have a buy on it but a relatively uninspiring earnings forecast and their logic is"
X Link 2026-01-27T20:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ManuInvests Perfect kind of encapsulation of the push pull. Investing hard for the big win so biz def getting more capital intensive. But real chance at winning. Long both $UBER and $GOOGL. Inshallah at least one wins"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fine with $IGT outcome. Nothing ever happens meme. Higher bid at low cost of capital so raise the cash outflow but multiple was a joke to start with. Still have massive cap returns after deal close and huge FCF Inflection in [--]. Ests rise in meantime w Italy higher cut"
X Link 2025-05-19T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Accountant called me for stock advice. Oh honey you can call better people. Anyways welcome to my theories of high price elasticity to flows $BRSL $MTCH $GOOGL"
X Link 2025-07-30T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The two massive ASRs after a big sell off and complicated news that are prominent in my mind are $RTX and $EA. Both were home runs. Are there any big ASRs that didnt work See $BRSL as next man up"
X Link 2025-07-30T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So $BRSL is going to show 3Q financials with a big beat and a massive deleveraging event from 7/1 and a reduction in the market cap of 4%. And mega millions is [---] jackpot now. Acceleration begins at 400"
X Link 2025-09-04T11:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BRSL Megamillions now up to 400mm jackpot. 400mm tends to be an acceleration point and Google trends is indeed inflecting. Odds are this runs all next week given the per person winning chances. Starting to look like a monster quarter right as they repo 9% of shares too"
X Link 2025-09-13T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"At current build rates the oddds of the megamillions being won in a draw are about 4.3%. That gives us a 75% chance of getting to 500mm by the 10/3 draw. Historically cohort MM builds tripled once it goes from a [--] handle to a [--]. $BRSL will report and guide end Oct. LONG"
X Link 2025-09-17T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Added to $BRSL. I estimate a 25% chance that mega millions has done a run past 1bn as of when they report. I estimate a 85% chance its still building through end Sept"
X Link 2025-09-18T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BRSL no megamillions winner and jackpot up 28mm to 451mm. This build is up from 23mm prior and is analagous to average build rates in the 400mm from 4Q24 (last precedent MM jackpot). 90% chance we're still building at end 3Q and should be over 500mm by then. 10% chance of 1.5bn"
X Link 2025-09-20T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Entering 4Q with a very strong set up for $BRSL multi state. There's a 62% chance Megamillions gets to 1bn+. Powerball is already at 174mm. There's about a 66% chance we get at least one 1bn+ jackpot. This is also where higher ticket MM can shine. 20% chance of 2bn+"
X Link 2025-10-01T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bought more $BRSL. Base case is that we grind into the 3Q report with both Multistate jackpots building to fairly significant numbers. Outside chance MM gets out of control big and immediately shows the power of the $5 ticket pricing change. All while massive repo plays out"
X Link 2025-10-01T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As Megamillions and Powerball continue to trundle along there is now a 75% chance of a 1bn jackpot this quarter $BRSL"
X Link 2025-10-15T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BRSL megamillions keeps building and is now 750mm. 80% chance it crosses 1bn"
X Link 2025-10-30T00:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MTCH and $BRSL earnings preview: Earnings bad on poor & young people murdered by inflation. Market dynamics strong on massive repos in a market dictated by flows (passives pods and retail)"
X Link 2025-11-03T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MTCH is good. Q/Q payer trends improving and payer y/y should flip positive in mid-26. 90mm in apple tax savings is a big number. Margins very strong and we know the cash is gonna keep going right towards destroying the share count. New features are getting shipped and some are actually cool (in particular modes is a good way to segment the user base). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985831922400969157 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985831922400969157"
X Link 2025-11-04T22:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@itsintheprice @partners_road Yea Im basically always long $APO short $TROW and depending on the particular moment in time calls on capital etc I have a net short or long between them"
X Link 2026-01-07T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@EVCurveFuturist Oil demand is so fucked. Disty and gasoline have peaked and China and will start being meaningfully negative growth rates"
X Link 2026-01-22T13:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump is generally locked [--] years in the economic past so it's not surprising that he would kick off his midterms work by going to fuck nowhere Iowa. In any event this particular grift is going to accrue to the ags bros as RVO won't disappoint. $DAR $BG $CLMT $ADM"
X Link 2026-01-27T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Continue to see upside to long term topline for $HXL. $AIR and $BA ramps bring you close to sell side. Then you get other OEM growth. Then you get a LSD boost from contract repricings per year (which has massive flowthru to margin). There's a comp for the repricings btw in $HWM"
X Link 2026-02-02T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Im definitely tempted here ngl. My original thesis was internal flows (ie repo) plus demonstrated long term brand viability of tinder + berating as tinder product revamp led to stabilization ahead of street. [--] obviously remains bang on [--] ok tinder wont go to zero [--] thesis creep do I allow it or nah https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018819723329200406 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018819723329200406"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Agree on defense but even more than that I think its the pricing for HXL. A ton of their contracts (somewhat fairly) were long duration fixed price and didnt anticipate this cost inflation environment. Those steadily reprice at a decent cadence now. Id have to check my notes to see exactly. But they will get meaningful revenue uplift as they do. I think the HWM contract repricing story when plant came in is a good precedent. Also tbh I would go so far as to call the next half decade an OEM supercycle https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019547614283219219"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"On another note the legal case that $MTCH is referencing is actually interesting. Back in the day they were massively jacking up price for older cohorts to incredible effect. Kind of a dark forecast on where tech can take discriminatory pricing"
X Link 2025-11-04T22:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I have no idea what $MTCH is doing with this latest AI bullshit & Hinge transition. I can only assume that it's some sort of dystopian look into the future when we're all dating computers (big TAM) and I can only assume that it means Hinge's 4Q sucks. Par for the course really"
X Link 2025-12-09T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$IGT / $BRSL is so funny. For ages the capital returns were the thesis and then the capital returns get announced & start and whoops what do you know stock goes vertical"
X Link 2025-07-09T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Closing out some of the $VNO bought after Zohran won. That was for real free money"
X Link 2025-07-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There is no compelling & consistent intellectual basis for ex ante setting the multiple of a stock. A 5.5% dividend is the same thing as a 3% dividend other than an 83% delta in stock price. What is real is an ASR for 9% of the mkt cap and 15% of the float. $BRSL $IGT"
X Link 2025-07-29T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IGT / $BRSL is an unbelievable set up here. MASSIVE incoming flow. Comparable to $MPC Speedway and dominates the $RTX post P&W fuck up ASR. Meanwhile valuation on ass dividend just raised and both major lottos are 100mm right now. LONG"
X Link 2025-07-29T13:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VNO leasing out 195k square feet to Verizon at Penn [--]. CSGP reporting rent of [---]. Great number. Penn [--] continues to fill with very high quality tenants"
X Link 2025-07-30T14:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Under [--] Alcohol Spending as a % of income historically correlates with the u25 unemployment rate very well. If I was [--] living with my parents with no job & no money and prices were going up then I also wouldn't drink any alcohol $BUD $DEO $BF $TAP"
X Link 2025-09-24T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Total Spirits revenue declined in [----] but volume actually rose 1%. The action was in trade down as super premium fell 5% and value grew 4.5%. Narrative violation on alcohol is dead but consistent with inflation killing people $BF"
X Link 2025-09-25T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sell side assumes EBITDA margins below historical averages basically forever for $BF. Set up reminds me a lot of $DG last fall"
X Link 2025-09-26T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Holding off on alcohol complex for now. Going to wait for [--] of three buy signals on $BF: Kentucky barrels in storage start falling wholesale spec barrel prices start rising or $BF moves capital allocation to repos in a big way"
X Link 2025-09-29T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mr_Neutral_Man $VNO is arguably easier & better here on a risk reward basis than back in [--]. You can literally just go to PENN and see the vision has worked. Its already attracting top tier finance and corporates"
X Link 2025-10-21T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PARR is very vulnerable here. West Coast cracks have come back to earth. Billings is going to be weak through the winter. Washington EV / LCFS pressures are displacing Billings also. Implied SAF valuation for PARR way out of whack to the rest of the space"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Having bought $AMN on a complete lark decided to do some real research and speak to a CMO. -It was surprising to me that their prior was that staffing is probably generally a solid biz although AMN was a name they were only casually familiar with. Not their main partner here -what broke the COVID positive feedback loop in the travel nurse market was less the hospital groups building their own staffing teams and more that they just explicitly and implicitly threatened the older nurses that if you quit to travel we will not give you your old job back. Itll be with someone lower on the union"
X Link 2025-12-01T15:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@WOLF_Financial $JOE $AMN"
X Link 2026-01-09T03:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMN is very funny because usually twitter theses are exceptionally bad but that one dude was actually data first. Just exceptionally rare to see alt data led with on Twitter. And it was really trivially easy to verify said data that there was just no way top line didnt beat"
X Link 2026-01-14T17:13Z [----] followers, 13.3K engagements
"Mood rn. Wife did NOT find it funny (it is actually just a 1% position) (I actually did real work after) $AMN"
X Link 2026-01-15T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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