#  @ragingbullcap Dylan Marrello Dylan Marrello posts on X about in the, business, $ogi, $cron the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +209% - [--] Month [-------] -32% - [--] Months [---------] +27% - [--] Year [---------] -5.10% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -24% - [--] Month [---] +1.80% - [--] Months [---] +51% - [--] Year [---] +19% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.30% - [--] Month [-----] +6% - [--] Months [-----] +18% - [--] Year [-----] +41% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 31.25% [stocks](/list/stocks) #6018 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 9.03% [countries](/list/countries) 3.47% [currencies](/list/currencies) 2.08% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 2.08% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 0.69% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 0.69% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 0.69% **Social topic influence** [in the](/topic/in-the) 17.36%, [business](/topic/business) 9.72%, [$ogi](/topic/$ogi) 7.64%, [$cron](/topic/$cron) 7.64%, [$cphto](/topic/$cphto) 6.94%, [debt](/topic/debt) 6.25%, [$lb](/topic/$lb) #2, [$hhh](/topic/$hhh) 6.25%, [$rig](/topic/$rig) #40, [$val](/topic/$val) #27 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@markemerritt](/creator/undefined) [@kennyack5](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@ericwanghermit](/creator/undefined) [@casinocapital](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@lars57360069](/creator/undefined) [@310value](/creator/undefined) [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@diego_la_torre_](/creator/undefined) [@franfra51045228](/creator/undefined) [@natstewart5](/creator/undefined) [@uzocapital](/creator/undefined) [@cupofcoffeecap](/creator/undefined) [@beelicapital](/creator/undefined) [@vince85623723](/creator/undefined) [@divergent7651](/creator/undefined) [@berkelkip](/creator/undefined) [@diegola95810478](/creator/undefined) [@adhdcapital](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [LandBridge Company LLC (LB)](/topic/$lb) [Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)](/topic/$hhh) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)](/topic/$miax) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Seadrill Limited (SDRL)](/topic/$sdrl) [HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING (HKHC)](/topic/horizon-kinetics) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL)](/topic/$tpl) [British American Tobacco (BTI)](/topic/$bti) [AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS)](/topic/$asts) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Good luck disrupting this AI $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $NOL.OL Buy when there's blood in the streets Buy when there's blood in the streets" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021643085193875495) 2026-02-11T17:50Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements "$MIAX note to self: Next time a stock exchange IPOs with a low float and reasonable valuation don't size it like a coward" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1961460256279859581) 2025-08-29T16:05Z [----] followers, 25K engagements "$DBO.TO A life changing outcome thus far and insiders are still buying like mad. I've played out so many scenarios in my head and it's awfully hard to conjure up a path where this isn't yet another double from here. Welcome your most most persuasive bear case in the comments. $DBO.TO A nanocap asset-light royalty business to play the theme. Cinemark's update today notes last weekend was the best three-days ever for D-Box ticket sales. CNK is D-Box's biggest partner. Much of the upcoming slate will have a D-Box offering. In addition to $DBO.TO A nanocap asset-light royalty business to play the" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1998496855529759137) 2025-12-09T20:55Z [----] followers, 21.9K engagements "Sounds facetious but if you actually 1) read voraciously 2) think critically about that information from first principles and 3) have a time horizon longer than a few months you've already separated yourself from the majority. Applies to many facets of life not merely investing" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2003545136748245436) 2025-12-23T19:15Z [----] followers, 62.9K engagements "@natstewart5 @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics I've often wondered this as well. They're all over nearly every similar vehicle. Might be an aversion to coal or the MLP structure" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2011222332174405643) 2026-01-13T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Very nice news for $NE and hugely validating to the broader offshore thesis. $NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL https://t.co/o3E03SYpSR $NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL https://t.co/o3E03SYpSR" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2015783126211977610) 2026-01-26T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HITI incredibly bullish update provides a great read through for the rest of the industry. Challenge anyone to find me a sector in North America with valuations more disconnected from reality than Canadian cannabis. Where I disagree is on the need for institutional attention: we are getting very close to the point where the ongoing profitability inflection will be simply too hard to ignore. Companies operating with these kinds of unit economics secular growth rates and entry barriers cannot stay value traps for very long; the already preposterous multiples can't contract that much more." [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2017228124484669861) 2026-01-30T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Market share lead low cost of capital BAT strategic value brand dominance across categories valuation. The size/scale of the business implies a market cap that *could end up much higher. $300m of net sales already. Once they run that for cash flow/normalize margins it will be a money printer" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2017279009860538674) 2026-01-30T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Entire telecom sector right now worth taking a very close look at. $ZEG.L shareholders have seen how much untapped value is sitting there to unlock in some of these entities. And that's even before the prospective uplift and cost savings that will come from D2D. $VOD $ASTS Nearly 1/3 of my book right now in this theme. $VZ are guiding to lower capex and committing to punchy capital returns out to 2028+12% today - biggest [--] day up move since [----] if $ASTS / D2D is part of the reason $VOD $VOD.L equity and calls are gonna explode. $VZ are guiding to lower capex and committing to punchy capital" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2017353338132537585) 2026-01-30T21:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Worthwhile read $ogi $cron Here is my analysis of the Canadian Cannabis recreative sector plus a discussion of a few of my holdings. Hope you'll find it useful. Feedback and disparaging comments welcome. https://t.co/8xea1bGiIw Here is my analysis of the Canadian Cannabis recreative sector plus a discussion of a few of my holdings. Hope you'll find it useful. Feedback and disparaging comments welcome. https://t.co/8xea1bGiIw" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2017372655343579619) 2026-01-30T23:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$OGI there are a number of issues with this analysis as the author himself notes but it should be directionally correct and is a very important piece to all of this. The excise tax is fixed at $1/g meaning increased prices have a leveraged impact on earnings not simply because that incremental revenue is achieved with no incremental increase in cost but because it results in excise tax as a % of total sales declining. The company with the highest volumes and lowest ASP (i.e. highest excise tax %) therefore has the most leverage to rationalizing domestic prices. @ragingbullcap @Diego_La_Torre_" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2017993893753622850) 2026-02-01T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$OGI No shortage of comedy in this sector but shares being lower since James was announced as CEO is up there with the most hilarious item to-date. Very worthwhile listen π Ideal mindset to be leading the company at this stage π¦ TRADE TO BLACK Inside Organigram: What the New CEO is Focused on in [----] π $OGI @Organigram_Inc CEO James Yamanaka π BAT Background Leadership Style Vision for the Future etc. βπΏπ§Ί ETFs: π $YOLO $MSOS https://t.co/bQu1FLNC5X π¦ TRADE TO BLACK Inside Organigram: What the New CEO is Focused on in [----] π $OGI @Organigram_Inc CEO James Yamanaka π BAT Background" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2018364213144514909) 2026-02-02T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Backwards looking. Companies get valued based on how much cash they're going to generate in the future not how much they've already made and first and second derivatives matter in valuation. Palantir is growing 100% and PayPal is shrinking. So PLTR goes from 100x sales to 50x in [----]. Palantir is tackling a large untapped TAM with limited competition; PayPal is in an immensely competitive space with disruption coming from all sides and a really challenged position. The market is telling you that Palantir is going to generate way more cash flow in the future than PayPal will and that" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2019042946729808142) 2026-02-04T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital None of thats to say it isnt way too high" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2019198997865582763) 2026-02-04T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital Patiently awaiting the Daniel Ek pivot" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2019199763120550110) 2026-02-05T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital Untapped earnings potential is so high and the stock is priced like it never comes. Recipe for a multibagger if it does" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2019201525869080973) 2026-02-05T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@siyul HODL that pro forma equity long-term Your implied basis is going to look remarkable down the road. Nicely done" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020881612683067600) 2026-02-09T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CPH.TO Looks like no usual monthly filing for NCIB activity this time around. Could be that everything went to debt reduction and the balance sheet is now entirely debt free although I don't think pausing was necessary for that. If we're lucky it may be that deal talks are materializing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020913392182087838 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020913392182087838" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020913392182087838) 2026-02-09T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sure except I think one can be substantially more confident in the direction of day rates than metals prices at this point given the market structure. I almost view the drillers as mission critical infrastructure like assets at this point - $ODL.OL outcome coming to drillships" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020915718011629860) 2026-02-09T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SFarringtonBKC @Lars57360069 @TommyDeepwater Don't disagree but there's also always an element of guessing on something like that. Offshore is increasingly losing its commodity status. Fixed to declining supply duopoly control and no substitutes to fill demand. The S/D dynamic is structural" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020916355361304701) 2026-02-09T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@qualtrim Lol not if you overpay and/or the durability of future cash flows declines. If only it were this simple" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021380095542223358) 2026-02-11T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Look at the way the economics are trending. When your revenue grows gross margins expand and opex stays flat earnings can rapidly inflect positive. Everyone is too busy looking in the review and fixating on long known issues like SBC which is easy to do when "stonk down". But the trends show clear progress and an imminent inflection. SNAP's problem historically is less about SBC and more about its struggle to scale unit economics because its infrastructure spend has grown in line with sales or even faster. They are finally starting to show gross margin expansion because subscriptions are pure" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022019333367455803) 2026-02-12T18:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TPB Market sniffing out the ALP momentum. There's a potential Celsius-like CPG growth story here" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2018715311982207187) 2026-02-03T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PLBY Beyond deleveraging and JV upside the mark implies you're basically getting the ex-China business and HB for almost nothing. Pretty good Monday so far. https://investors.playboy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/playboy-signs-122-million-deal-united-trademark-group-accelerate https://investors.playboy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/playboy-signs-122-million-deal-united-trademark-group-accelerate" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020865913327661059) 2026-02-09T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Absolute must read https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021450963475890342) 2026-02-11T05:07Z [----] followers, 24.6K engagements "Horizon Kinetics controlled extremely illiquid BTC miner $WELX just collapsed 25% on some $200K ish of volume on no news as far as I can tell. I ate a decent chunk and am full but the ask is still well below $4 -- shares generally trade closer to $4.50/$5. Unless I am missing something (and I very well could be) looks like some easy lunch money. Second time this has happened this year; first time shares recovered back to $4.50 in short order. Not investment advice never is. dyodd https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968403078463308160 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968403078463308160" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1968403078463308160) 2025-09-17T19:53Z [----] followers, 21.6K engagements "1/ $CMSG is a quirky and very mispriced OTC stock for small accounts with potentially explosive upside over time - this could double today and still look attractive (NB: very illiquid). Consensus Mining is another Horizon Kinetics related BTC miner. IPO'd this summer in darkness stock has found itself completely dislocated as lack of discovery has led to no bid for any legacy holders looking for some liquidity (shares have traded as high as $80 but are now at $40 on no news). Even if you're a Bitcoin skeptic the numbers are hard to ignore: ROICs have been absurdly good yet the enterprise" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1983198956566745239) 2025-10-28T15:47Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements "@cvanhooydonk Thanks hadn't caught that" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2002057264740663441) 2025-12-19T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A few things I like heading into [----] that I haven't discussed much previously. $SNAP Got dinged with tax loss selling the last couple months but really like the set up ahead. Subscription fees for SNAP+/storage add high margin revenue streams while bloated cost structure should continue to fall as a % of sales. Intriguing strategic optionality for AI players (e.g. Perplexity deal). Continue to buy commons as well as selling $10 puts. $LB Almost cut in half from its highs only two months ago and is back to a compelling entry valuation. Added in size this AM. Call option on Permian data center" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008205601667518640) 2026-01-05T15:55Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements "@cupofcoffeecap Also interesting but not fully there on it. $LB seems ripe for a short-term move higher/didn't think we'd ever see sub $50 again so that's exciting to me. Probably should own WBI too" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008237335318847753) 2026-01-05T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ReturnsJourney $LB obviously is the closest comp but it's not a micro cap nor is it anywhere near as cheap as TPL was back then" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008963126012858480) 2026-01-07T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$DBO.TO $IMAX How's this for over-indexing PLF tech-providers are keeping the entire industry afloat:" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2011086848399974421) 2026-01-13T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$DBO.TO A potentially huge opportunity coming up in Q4. Dune [--] and Avengers are both scheduled to open on the same weekend in December. Since Dune [--] has an exclusive three week window with $IMAX Avengers will be forced to screen in other premium formats meaning DBOX should be a huge draw for it. Industry experts widely expect Avengers to be the biggest box office draw this year and could exceed $1.5B globally. π€ https://www.themovieblog.com/2026/01/dune-part-three-secures-all-imax-screens-for-three-weeks-in-december/ $DBO.TO back in the 70s is plain silly. 10x NTM EPS. Added some more." [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2014036289138446642) 2026-01-21T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SNAP big tell on how disconnected sentiment is from reality is how disproportionate the knee-jerk regurgitated talking point about elevated SBC is. Too high yes but it's middle of the pack as % of sales relative to tech peers. Will trend towards 12% this year. And a lot of that spend is R&D comp related to Specs which we know is getting separated and will get some third-party financing down the road. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019818347974606862 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019818347974606862" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2019818347974606862) 2026-02-06T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RDI $RDIB Totally rational stuff going on here" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020191364680696275) 2026-02-07T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Now $NE just has to take $SDRL -- boom: duopoly" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020850287368388689) 2026-02-09T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The JU piece is immaterial wouldn't be surprised to see that piece divested. RIG now has enormous market power in floaters removes the entity that has prioritized utilization over price (ergo increasing pricing power) and has deleveraged itself putting itself in a position to return capital not too far down the road. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020896912929325456 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020896912929325456" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020896912929325456) 2026-02-09T16:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Scale and unit economics have been the focus and they've done a good job on that front but now they need to do a much better job managing their working capital. Hoping a more experience executive at the top will be able to help with that. Market is not going to re-rate the equity significantly until they prove out cash conversion. Also just too many unforced errors and suboptimal operating. E.g. working with Euro regulators is obvs a nightmare but the EU-GMP stuff at this point is just on them; it's amateur hour; the hiccup in exports; etc" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021233827947888805) 2026-02-10T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PLBY more people doing the math today. My numbers welcome pushback if I am getting any of this wrong. Fully diluted now $275m. Net debt end of Sept was $130m. For simplicity assuming $45m purchase price proceeds received today + $5m FCF pro forma net debt is $78m. So call it $350m EV. What do you get [--]. China licensing business. Worth thinking about the implied mark on the 50% sale. Annualizing last Q China revenues are $12m. UTG is paying $122m (front loaded) over [--] years for half of this.which is eye-popping when you consider the min guarantee is $8.3m + another $3.3m the first three years" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021261211564720377) 2026-02-10T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "You can't evaluate this company sequentially. Royalties are driven by content windows out of their control. Had Jurassic Park previous Q which had no IMAX screens in NA to compete with and a few titles that were perfect for the offering. IMAX captured a hugely disproportionate amount of Avatar and beyond Zootopia there was nothing big. From April on this calendar year the slate is really good for them - e.g. Avengers is the expected to be the biggest draw and has no IMAX screens. Need to look at what they can control - system expansion and costs and both were super strong" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021377127073894412) 2026-02-11T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@tom_grlla Because MIAX doesnt have a brokerage platform that can drive 40B of event contracts in a year They get to free ride off Robinhoods customers. $36m of royalties is easily worth $500m to MIAX thats 10x what they paid for it [--] months ago. No brainer" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021679927217860682) 2026-02-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not easy at all of course. Even if you hit all [--] of these items you're very unlikely to get a [----] bagger. But it's a decent framework for big winners. Royalties attached to durable brands at the right price are one idea e.g. Buying something like $NATH [--] years ago. I actually think today $PLBY is something that checks all of these boxes" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008962109120352753) 2026-01-07T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CRON Not a net-net anymore π $CRON $OGI $MSOS π To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open. $CRON $OGI $MSOS π To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1972684077590269985) 2025-09-29T15:25Z [----] followers, 17.5K engagements "$MIAX π«‘ $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2003142380694954198) 2025-12-22T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Haven't discussed this one much but hallmarks of a multi-bagger all over it: asset-light royalties on an indestructible brand (i.e. perpetual duration) at a deep-value price rapid deleveraging societal tailwinds tiny absolute market cap relative to potential tons of free optionality on licensing the brand in areas we can't even comprehend yet. Sounds bizarre but it reminds of me the Horizon TPL thesis in the 90s" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020866869922505161) 2026-02-09T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BeeliCapital @KennyAck5 Because they are going to raise third party capital in that vehicle. So SNAP shareholders get their interest in SPECS diluted but they no longer need to fund the R&D from the core biz a fine trade off because the market values Specs as a donut" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022008308937437640) 2026-02-12T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$NE $SDRL $VAL $RIG IMO offshore bears are too tethered to past cycles and are missing that this time really does look a lot different. What has been responsible for the vicious cyclical downturns historically Supply side dynamics (always the culprit of busted cycles) fragmentation and high financial leverage. In previous cycles you've had drillers lever up to bring new supply online (at the worst time) creating a consequent supply/demand imbalance; given carry costs/negative operating leverage and exacerbated by debt burdens you then get drillers desperate to generate revenue competing on" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1898037661644079365) 2025-03-07T15:46Z [----] followers, 35.5K engagements "$TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but that vastly understates the outcome given all the capital returns. I believe TPL has cumulatively split its stock 45x since Murray's write up. 3.075m S/O in [----] x [--] implies 138m theoretical shares today. Actual share count today is half of that (69m). So capital appreciation on a per share basis roughly doubles to something like 650x due to buyback accretion. And then there's all the dividends. I'm too lazy to add them all up and" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306) 2026-01-07T17:08Z [----] followers, 59.3K engagements "Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Founders-Letter-2026_Final.pdf $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Founders-Letter-2026_Final.pdf $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2010891881375227967) 2026-01-13T01:49Z [----] followers, 32.4K engagements "My "asset-light hard asset" plays starting [----] off with a bang for obvious reasons. $NRP $LB $GMX.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2011179414323687603) 2026-01-13T20:51Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements "Seriously though $PLBY https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306s=20 $TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but that vastly understates the outcome given all the capital returns. I believe TPL has cumulatively split its https://t.co/MxxljfE281 https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306s=20 $TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020867291362037799) 2026-02-09T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Increased competition and changing consumer preferences is a good signal for $haypp $BTI $BATS Velo had a 24% market share as of EoY [----] while charging 86% of the price of Zyn across the board. That's up from a tiny 6.1% market share [--] months ago at MUCH MUCH lower prices. Back then some (idiots) criticized the discounting strategy. it clearly worked. https://t.co/VUz6FJfQkJ $BTI $BATS Velo had a 24% market share as of EoY [----] while charging 86% of the price of Zyn across the board. That's up from a tiny 6.1% market share [--] months ago at MUCH MUCH lower prices. Back then some (idiots)" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021927079021834608) 2026-02-12T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not to mention they just reported their positive operating profit quarter ever" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021979249088065567) 2026-02-12T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "You need a CFTC issued DCM license to serve as a futures exchange in the US Bitstamp doesn't work for this. The MIAXdx license is a unique type of DCM license in that it is one of few that allows for non-intermediated clearing - it allows HOOD to offer futures directly without going through an FCM - so they can capture each part of the value chain. It's why getting this license makes a lot of sense for hood. Regulators are nevertheless scrutinizing stuff like this after the FTX blow up but that's likely why HOOD has brought Susquehana and MIAX into the JV so that there is some separation" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021995358046269630) 2026-02-12T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@FriendlyCapMgmt Cannabis gets decimated by everything. Even legalization is negative" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022013893028327710) 2026-02-12T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Backwards looking. They quite literally just reported a GAAP profit MAUs are flat and critically ARPUs are moving in the right direction across all regions. I don't care if they lose a moderate amount of DAUs if they're monetizing them more effectively Assuming 10% topline growth next year at 60% gross margin and flat opex they'll do over $700m of EBIT next year. So that 1x sales multiple puts you at 11x EBIT assuming zero improvement to opex. Gives no credit to perplexity value to Specs and assumes no R&D cuts. $SHOP EBIT is roughly 2x and its market cap is 20x higher" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022015565653495833) 2026-02-12T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The 20+ years of Murray Stahl's shareholder letters at $FRMO and the company's trajectory more broadly are just so so bizarre. Yet shrouded by all the eccentricity they've quietly compounded BVPS at more than 25% since [----]. A fascinating person and company particularly given the combination of a really patient value obsessed Buffett disciple building a crypto business at a glacial pace through a pink sheet stock makes for a natural investor base of practically zero. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794027909952241787 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794027909952241787" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1794027909952241787) 2024-05-24T15:29Z [----] followers, 27K engagements "When I said these business can "run a very long way" I meant forever. https://x.com/nmtuan_14/status/1845929741901078950 I knew TPL was the second stock Buffett ever bought but never knew he still owns it. Im never selling my TPL shares π https://x.com/nmtuan_14/status/1845929741901078950 I knew TPL was the second stock Buffett ever bought but never knew he still owns it. Im never selling my TPL shares π" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1845932982944911729) 2024-10-14T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are obviously one of the highest quality asset classes but rarely trade at discounted prices. This is an exception. - The core options exchange segment is a fast growing gem that has captured just shy of 20% of US multi-listed options volume disrupting a long-standing oligopoly despite maintaining competitive unit economics. ADV" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2001350363610313166) 2025-12-17T17:54Z [----] followers, 47.5K engagements "Perfect day to be a $MIAX owner. 12m of market wide volume [--] mins into the session. https://www.miaxglobal.com/ Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://t.co/DITK4pcl7v https://t.co/o4trxruy29 https://www.miaxglobal.com/ Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://t.co/DITK4pcl7v https://t.co/o4trxruy29" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2013629695938441557) 2026-01-20T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MIAX One of the best things about this business how much it thrives during days like this. 10m options contracts already traded on its exchanges. Stock should start to work once the lock-up overhang is cleared in coming months. https://www.miaxglobal.com/ https://www.miaxglobal.com/" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2016939089308565691) 2026-01-29T18:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG $VAL Not the deal I was expecting at all.but man is this bullish for the sector *TRANSOCEAN TO BUY VALARIS IN STOCK DEAL VALUED AT ABOUT $5.8B *TRANSOCEAN TO BUY VALARIS IN STOCK DEAL VALUED AT ABOUT $5.8B" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2020849143934021673) 2026-02-09T13:15Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "And I'd be remiss to not mention the free call option on r/wallstreebets meme-ing this to infinity" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021261544630174002) 2026-02-10T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BTW MIAX plucked that license for $50m of the FTX bankruptcy less than [--] years ago. How's that for some good distressed investing https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/ftx-sells-ledgerx-to-miami-exchange-owner-for-50-million#::text=FTX%20Sells%20LedgerX%20to%20Miami%20Exchange%20Owner%20for%20%2450%20Million https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/ftx-sells-ledgerx-to-miami-exchange-owner-for-50-million#::text=FTX%20Sells%20LedgerX%20to%20Miami%20Exchange%20Owner%20for%20%2450%20Million" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021673824631308749) 2026-02-11T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SNAP now entering territory where sentiment has become entirely disconnected from reality. Almost 1x sales on a 60% gross margin social media business with 1B MAU and a new high-margin subscription monetization model running at $1B and growing 60%. Perplexity deal seems to actually be rolling out despite question marks raised on the call. All time low despite the PnL never being in better shape. Beneficiary of AI. This will be a multi-bagger from here. Bookmark it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021959648559997140 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021959648559997140" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021959648559997140) 2026-02-12T14:48Z [----] followers, 48.9K engagements "The reason this is interesting from a $MIAX shareholder perspective is that beyond extremely limited commentary in a PR that simply announced the deal the company hasn't outwardly commented on the opportunity. Shareholders I've spoken to largely haven't given it much thought. Meanwhile $HOOD a company 20x the size of MIAX even after declining 40% was asked about Rothera at least [--] separate times on their earnings call and highlighted it in their earnings release. There is very little overlap between those who follow HOOD and MIAX so the size and scope of opportunity for this JV highlighted on" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021982348498051253) 2026-02-12T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SNAP one of those situations where sentiment could not be more in the toilet yet virtually every piece of the story is improving. ARPU and MAU growth gross margin expanding to 59% even a small gaap profit. Running at almost $1B subs revenue (high margin 71% growth). Costs can rapidly drop with Specs separation (and maybe that turns into something valuable). Perplexity revenue coming this year + endless optionality around AI. Bad day to be reporting as a tech company and market will price anchor but this doesn't make any sense at $6 ($10B market cap). Another 10% revenue growth at the current" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2019164265685373100) 2026-02-04T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Own physical assets especially those that will play a role in the revolution. $LB $NRP" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021645915803763189) 2026-02-11T18:02Z [----] followers, 18.9K engagements "$MIAX Doesn't seem like anyone understands the latent value in the 10% stake they retained in their sale of the MIAXdx futures license to the Robinhood/Susquehanna JV (Rothera) $HOOD Prediction markets are growing like crazy. 2.3B in Q3 to [---] in Q4 (+270% QoQ) and already 4B in the first [--] weeks of [----]. The economics are $0.01/contract to the broker (HOOD) and $0.01 to the exchange clearinghouse. By purchasing the MIAX license HOOD captures more of that $0.02 total fee HOOD notes on the call they "anticipate a significant portion of volume will move over to Rothera". MIAX owns 10% of the" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2021669136661885413) 2026-02-11T19:34Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements "Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is conclusive that he is terrible. But one needs to put that into the context of the business he's been building. SNAP has had to compete with Meta for eye balls and ad-dollars.- an earlier mover better capitalized with an outlier winner as its CEO - and endless other platforms. So the deck has been stacked against him from the start. What" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022089933867901075) 2026-02-12T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$snap @decodefinance @KennyAck5 Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is conclusive that @decodefinance @KennyAck5 Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022094193355895116) 2026-02-12T23:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LB Data centers in the Permian are looking increasingly inevitable Horizon Kinetics guesstimates $80m of effectively pure margin revenue for 1GW on 2K acres. Even if it's half of that this just the beginning of the re-rating for Landbridge. I'd argue you're still actually not paying anything for that optionality at this price. https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Horizon-Kinetics-Q4-2024-Commentary_Final.pdf https://eastdaley.com/the-burner-tip/chevron-plans-data-center-power-complex-in-west-texas-supporting-permian-demand Own physical assets especially those that will play a role in the" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022367309516493056) 2026-02-13T17:48Z [----] followers, 42.1K engagements "@Vince85623723 @310Value Well I'd suggest the duration lack of capital intensity and extremely high margins justifies 25x EBITDA for LB. So you can do the math on what just a single one of these might be worth. Currently doing $200m of EBITDA so a single data 1GW data center alone is a big deal" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2022369077423899113) 2026-02-13T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Published an update on some ideas. Link in comments. Money-weighted return (XIRR) across the ideas assuming equal notional allocation to each has been 50% so far. Pareto principle driving that outcome naturally" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965088677933264940) 2025-09-08T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GoodLuckCrypto1 @TheLaurenChen The we were there first argument only holds weight with leftists when it suits them. When white people use it its called racism or intolerance" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976729396901007827) 2025-10-10T19:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Divergent7651 I like the call on Malone allocating at a small scale" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1982979379899560020) 2025-10-28T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Class act right to the end π https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov1025.pdf https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov1025.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987959596577636408) 2025-11-10T19:04Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements "$GMX.TO mgmt present frequently and never miss an opportunity to communicate the view that their shares trade at a very steep discount to intrinsic value (true). GMX has $35m of cash and securities mostly held in juniors that trade at far lesser discounts and it has very limited cash needs to operate. Their response to the persistent valuation naturally is to plough a whopping 0.03% of their cash into share repurchases over a [--] month period. Perhaps worse than failing to be aggressive is that they bought back such a miniscule number rather than none at all. It's a tell: they misunderstand the" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1989073719080140898) 2025-11-13T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Contrast with something like $KEWL - run by people who understand basic financial concepts like opportunity cost and time value: Acquire latent royalties return all unnecessary capital to shareholders reducing basis to zero.and wait for the royalties to produce. Pretty simple playbook. But no let's just keep doing what we've been doing for decades to no avail. https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/keweenaw-land-association-kewl https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/keweenaw-land-association-kewl" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1989085157471683030) 2025-11-13T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$KEWL legacy shareholders having their entire basis returned to invest as they please now have effectively a free call option on any future royalties produced by the land. Globex shareholders instead get exposure to GDX constituents they could get pure play exposure to by purchasing an ETF. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989087843319251041 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989087843319251041" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1989087843319251041) 2025-11-13T21:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The best theses are simple and turn on less than a handful of (mostly qualitative) drivers. No complex spreadsheets necessary. You should be able to fly a [---] through the gap between price and intrinsic value (high school level math and an appeal to common sense ought to be sufficient here). The key insight is being able to cut through the noise the minutiae and the prevailing sentiment to hone in on what really matters. I have made $CRON a top [--] position behind $TDW and $CPH.TO I have made $CRON a top [--] position behind $TDW and $CPH.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1769404564459974935) 2024-03-17T16:44Z [----] followers, 34.6K engagements "There are so many incredible long-duration opportunities still out there right now being made possible by the ubiquitous myopia that pervades markets today. Every year droves of investors flock to Omaha to hear sermons on how generational wealth is created simply through the discounted purchase and holding of quality long-duration assets for decades; only for those same pilgrims to soon return home to obsess over quarterly EPS estimates and the fed funds rate. Retail's path to alpha is to pay little mind to such noise. Like all Buffett wisdom it's deceptively simple. So we assume there must" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594) 2024-04-04T19:33Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements "I'll be pitching a "value with a catalyst" Canadian microcap. The set-up rhymes with Cipher in many respects. @InsiderIdeas @PaulAndreola @dsmoak98 @nicholasp66 @ClarkSquareCap @hurdle_rate @MikeFritzell @ToffCap @BerkelKip @Kreuzmann13 @david_katunaric @FoxCastlehold @ragingbullcap @jptissot1 @CompTortoise @stoiccapital72 @JoashReid1 @Jam_invest Forgot that one its tonight heres the link: https://t.co/xUIfVtmSmn @InsiderIdeas @PaulAndreola @dsmoak98 @nicholasp66 @ClarkSquareCap @hurdle_rate @MikeFritzell @ToffCap @BerkelKip @Kreuzmann13 @david_katunaric @FoxCastlehold @ragingbullcap" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777370190575260115) 2024-04-08T16:17Z [----] followers, 91.8K engagements "1/ $BQE.V Alright here's the pitch. First of all thank you @DiegoLa95810478 for bringing this name to my attention a couple months back. I'll be sharing a full write-up in the coming days but here's the essence: The company develops water management and treatment solutions for its partners mainly mining/resource companies. It might sound niche complicated and/or cyclical but bear with me. I'll be pitching a "value with a catalyst" Canadian microcap. The set-up rhymes with Cipher in many respects. I'll be pitching a "value with a catalyst" Canadian microcap. The set-up rhymes with Cipher in" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502775137763518) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, 180.2K engagements "1/ $HHH In his [----] letter Buffett highlights an investment he made in a commercial property near NYU in the early 90's. The wisdom he shares is highly apposite here and is more generally insight we would all be better off keeping front of mind. $HHH Doubled up below $65. Ty ty $HHH Doubled up below $65. Ty ty" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778141626017136721) 2024-04-10T19:22Z [----] followers, 132.9K engagements "@ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but $TDW or $NRP fine too) tobacco ( $MO $BTI) and sorry in advance to the 'but it has no intrinsic value' crowd but $BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1782074321856278839) 2024-04-21T15:50Z [----] followers, 71.2K engagements "My "go to the beach for 30-years and come back happy" portfolio. The broader themes are more important than the names. 1) Land BTC and uniquely advantaged energy cos - own scarcity as a play on the money printers never getting turned off (i.e. short fiat). 2) Energy and the tobacco names - over long periods it pays to own perpetually low multiple names returning all their excess cash when the market is completely off on terminal value risk. Thoughts pushbacks insults Better ways to play these ideas @ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1782086750354981064) 2024-04-21T16:39Z [----] followers, 50.2K engagements "Just published some musings regarding current market dynamics and where I'm currently spending my time. Some specific and brief thoughts on: $NRP $BTU $MREO $HHH $JBGS $CLPR $CRON $MSOS" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1803856426214867101) 2024-06-20T18:24Z [----] followers, 28.8K engagements "@ettingermentum HAHAHA this party needs to be completely deleted and built anew. Incredible" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1806694266967572578) 2024-06-28T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Top [--] positions right now (with a little cheating): $CPH.TO $CRON + $OGI $MREO $TDW $CLMT" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1824820978242736148) 2024-08-17T14:49Z [----] followers, 81.6K engagements "$HHH The best take-private plays are those you'd be happy owning at the current price if the bid fails to materialize. That's very much the case here as far as I'm concerned as HHH is clearly materially undervalued and nearing a major inflection point in free cash generation. Linked article reinforces the win-win nature of the set-up noting that Ackman's bid likely needs to be "something over $100" (vs current $77) while also pointing out that the company is set to earn over $500 of FCF this year. "This year OReilly says the company is on track to generate $751 million in cash flow which" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1838593372228821096) 2024-09-24T14:56Z [----] followers, 43.6K engagements "$LB By far my biggest mistake this year was getting wind that Murray Stahl was heavily invested in an upcoming IPO with an abundance of similarities to $TPL watching it surge on the IPO date and deciding I'd wait for a pullback to add because I couldn't stomach buying something going up in a straight line. Yikes. I'm probably still committing the same mistake if this is anything like TPL in not buying today. These infinite duration "asset-light hard-asset" plays can run a very long way" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1845857110434754614) 2024-10-14T16:00Z [----] followers, 101.1K engagements "$TPL which is a gazzillion bagger all time is up 100% ytd. You could have sucked your thumb watching it for decades and it would never have been too late. Such is the beauty of great business with these characteristics. Stahl calls it the best business in the world. I bought some $LB. Ill buy more if it goes down; Ill buy more if it goes up. On top of it all Im hard pressed to think of a better way to play data center build outs for a generalist. $LB By far my biggest mistake this year was getting wind that Murray Stahl was heavily invested in an upcoming IPO with an abundance of similarities" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1845874028176896020) 2024-10-14T17:07Z [----] followers, 54K engagements "@rhaej The point is that the land itself is the value whatever the ultimate use may be. Take a read through this beginning at [--] with particular attention to 26-29. https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1845892417448493433) 2024-10-14T18:20Z [----] followers, 30K engagements "Really common theme for me over the last couple years has been a hunt for scarcity in a world of increasing monetary expansion/debasement. Supply constrained Manhattan real estate ( $CLPR $SEG) ;development companies with a supply monopoly ( $HHH $JBGS); offshore assets at wide discounts to replacement value ( $TDW $RIG); Bitcoin. $LB Owning more than 200K surface acres strategically located in the heart of the Permian to take advantage of not just a scarcity of land but of energy probably does better than all of the above over the long-term. $TPL which is a gazzillion bagger all time is up" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1845901391552041295) 2024-10-14T18:56Z [----] followers, 18K engagements "$HHH $LB Buy right and sit tight. Great stuff from Stahl beginning at p. [--] on the virtue of patience when holding forever assets and how to think about land assets. https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf @rhaej The point is that the land itself is the value whatever the ultimate use may be. Take a read through this beginning at [--] with particular attention to 26-29. https://t.co/fG9CK52Ahf https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf @rhaej The point is that the land itself is the value whatever the ultimate use may be." [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1846297178349945329) 2024-10-15T21:08Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements "And with that I've just shared some thoughts at the link in bio about the current offshore set-up my basket approach and an interesting microcap driller that I've been adding to over the last month $NOL.OL $TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Offshore today looks to me a lot like this real estate trade did then. Have been heavily adding across the complex $tdw $val $ne $rig $nol.ol Offshore today looks to me a lot like this real estate trade did then. Have been heavily adding across the complex $tdw $val $ne $rig $nol.ol" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1849399059506663885) 2024-10-24T10:34Z [----] followers, 67.4K engagements "$BQE.V Important to not read too much into quarterly results given the nascent story but this looks to be just an exceptional Q3 across the board. - Proportional Revenue of $10m (+28%YoY). While a lot of that topline growth is driven by the welcome resurgence of the China JVs (+95%) (which are now recovering zinc in addition to copper) recurring revenue from Operation Services (priority KPI) grew to $3.9m (+23%). - Importantly the quality of the recurring revenue is really starting to show through. Ex. Minto each of the operating projects equaled or exceeded operating days and volumes treated" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1862276405645762659) 2024-11-28T23:24Z [----] followers, 15.8K engagements "$CRON 40% revenue growth cash breakeven drasitically improved cost structured. Enterprise value: -$100m Find me another North American net-net with this grow rate and latent potential" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1867222552306651171) 2024-12-12T14:58Z [----] followers, 21.3K engagements "$OGI Lol I think the market may have to start paying attention now - Q4 Revenue +22% - Gross margin up to 37% - Adj. EBITDA 5.9m up from 0.1m Q423 and $8.5m on the year on the year (+55%) - $9m of cost savings realized this Q - Operating cash flow $9m - +18% on the year in international sales (higher margin) #1 market share well capitalized cost of capital advantage through BAT parntership world class efficiency and improving.and it is beyond cheap at a low to mid single digit EBITDA multiple pro forma Motif. I have taken this up to my second largest holding" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1869361700282986903) 2024-12-18T12:38Z [----] followers, 26.9K engagements "Some optimistic portfolio predictions this year: - $BQE.V - Seabridge gets KSM financed; - $RDI - Cannon Park Wellington and the Viaduct get sold with proceeds paying down 1/3 of the debt. At the same time the cinemas rebound and EBITDA exits 2x higher. - $HHH - Ackman takes it out at $100 - $ZEG.L - both the fibercos get monetized - $MREO - setrusumab hits the second interim and alvelestat gets a mark of $3/share. $KSS - private equity makes a bid $CPH.TO - delivers another impactful acquisition" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1874911793274925388) 2025-01-02T20:13Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements "1/ $RDI lastest piece at link in bio. Reading is hated family controlled and highly levered. It is also one of the most mispriced equities I have ever seen. Due to high debt levels ($215m debt vs $45m market cap) and $70m of maturities this year (against $11m of cash and $12m LQA EBITDA vs. $20m interest expense) the equity is trading like its game over. But it's not" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1882548075861790871) 2025-01-23T21:56Z [----] followers, 43.7K engagements "$GMX.TO has grown into a top [--] position for me since @ICBarrett pitched me on it in the summer. Did not take long to convince me this was a highly compelling opportunity with a near term inflection and virtually zero downside. I still think the stock has a long way to run and is a great low risk way for a generalist to play commodities/precious metals. Yet another big value catalyst at $GMX.TO Jack Stoch spent his career amassing an enormous amount of latent value in $GMX.TO. It owned one property at float in [----] and now has [---] including [---] royalties. I've already discussed the two big" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1883517591777386781) 2025-01-26T14:09Z [----] followers, 23.5K engagements "$CRON EV now down to -$135m. NCAV/share $2.37 (growing) vs $1.87 stock price. Zero burn. $140m revenue growing 30%. Owns leading brand. Market supply and demand finding equilibrium and prices starting to tick up off the bottom. Just silly cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1883938898981838913) 2025-01-27T18:03Z [----] followers, 33.5K engagements "$GMX.TO I've spent a lot time the last [--] months or so studying this name and ths interview really drives home how great of a set up this is: - huge margin of safety with half the market cap in cash and securities no debt and hidden asset value worth multiples of the EV; - [--] years worth of value creation long dormant finally hitting a major inflection propelled by massive tailwinds; - An honest and aligned owner operator who has patiently and steadily built this to a tipping point and is now looking for a successor and an exit (this is worth multiples in a sale); - A proposed successor with a" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1884006259696796098) 2025-01-27T22:31Z [----] followers, 19.4K engagements "$ASTS I officially joined the spacemob last week after some very helpful chats with @AboveAvgOdds and @Uzocapital among others. My conclusion: the right tail is simply way too large to ignore on this" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1888972568192864497) 2025-02-10T15:25Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements "$OGI Finally got around to doing a long form on this one at link in bio. The company's intrinsic value and its share price have been in complete divergence since the BAT partnership announcement in Nov [--]. Despite the story improving in every way the major overhang on the stock is whether this business can achieve profitability. My view: the combined post-acquisition entity likely already is" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1891858724538438006) 2025-02-18T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPH.TO Now at 10x TTM EBITDA - i.e. assuming no synergies no growth no Natroba expansion into Canada/intl. Incredibly cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1894433345158697056) 2025-02-25T17:04Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements "$HHH These results are outstanding unsurprisingly to anyone that's been paying close attention to this story at a fundamental level. Easy to get lost trying piece together all of Ackman's motivations but I have no doubt part of this boils down to his recognition of the arrival of a major inflection point in cash flow generation and wanting more of it to himself. This update certainly makes his proposal look even more ridiculous. https://investor.howardhughes.com/news-releases/news-release-details/howard-hughes-holdings-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-0" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1894862163812196536) 2025-02-26T21:28Z [----] followers, 74.1K engagements "$NRP just casually putting up $250m of cash flow in weak coal and terrible soda ash environments. That's a 15% FCF yield on the enterprise and much higher in a normalized environment. All of that could be available for distribution soon with deleveraging nearly done- could support a 4-5 fold increase in annual distributions. Extremely attractive yield with minimal brain damage" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1895470525398335558) 2025-02-28T13:46Z [----] followers, 66.6K engagements "So many eye popping disconnects emerging in certain sectors. Here's one: $SDRL is currently valued at $150m per active and owned drillship (i.e. excl stacked fleet and semis). Replacement cost valuations get ridiculed but it matters when global supply is shrinking" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1896942099238629614) 2025-03-04T15:13Z [----] followers, 24.7K engagements "$tdw more insider buying in the offshore complexπ Insider signalling running completely contrary to market sentiment Big insider buy at $TDW. Code P stands for an open market or private purchase. https://t.co/fVZhDbShMt Big insider buy at $TDW. Code P stands for an open market or private purchase. https://t.co/fVZhDbShMt" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1900609049894232167) 2025-03-14T18:04Z [----] followers, 30K engagements "$VAL $480K day rate in a soft environment Further evidence imo of the bull thesis playing out - viz. that this has become a much better rational industry. Demand will always ebb and flow but cycles break on the supply side; and with limited incremental supply coming online coupled with healthy balance sheets and increasing benefits of consolidation I'm skeptical we see the dynamics that historically have precipitated declining day rates. $SDRL $RIG $NE $VAL Two year term for DS-10 (7G) at $480k in lower cost W Africa along w/ two unpriced options at [--] year each. 2Q-3Q [----] start Strong" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1906820841318515043) 2025-03-31T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HAYPP.ST Nicotine is unstoppable" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1907800363148726751) 2025-04-03T14:20Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements "Some things I like right now $CPH.TO $OGI/ $CRON $GMX.TO Broadcaster basket ( $EVC $GTN $SSP) Busted bio basket ( $ARVN $KROS) $HAYPP.ST $NRP $RDI $ENDI $BRAG" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1910531917159530818) 2025-04-11T03:14Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements "$NE And yet down 60% from the highs trading below BK emergence price divs +bb 10% and growing scarcity value. Very long. $NE smashes it out of the ballpark with a massive (30%) increase in backlog "Approximately [--] rig years of new contract awards representing $2.2 to $2.7 billion of revenue potential; backlog increased to $7.5 billion." Previous guidance for [----] kept $VAL $RIG $SDRL $BORR $NE smashes it out of the ballpark with a massive (30%) increase in backlog "Approximately [--] rig years of new contract awards representing $2.2 to $2.7 billion of revenue potential; backlog increased to" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1916955984846545308) 2025-04-28T20:41Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements "$HAYPP.ST $HAYPP after meeting with management last week I took my position up materially. My sense is that their stated commitment to thinking long-term is genuine and not just the usual marketing language. A great example of Marathon's observation in Capital Returns of the unusual quality of Nordic management teams. Quite an exceptional business they've built out. And the growth algorithm in the US spits out numbers that are hard to fathom. Judging by the price action this week I'm guessing I'm not the only one who came away with this impression." [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1918288368577741009) 2025-05-02T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HAYPP.ST Unstoppable. $HAYPP.ST Nicotine is unstoppable https://t.co/gZue59sFi8 $HAYPP.ST Nicotine is unstoppable https://t.co/gZue59sFi8" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1920108607502197061) 2025-05-07T13:29Z [----] followers, 20.7K engagements "$CRON Q1 Out: - Double digit topline growth (again); - EBIT nearly breakeven at -$4m (Vs. -$15m YoY) - Interest income more than offsets EBIT shortfall - GAAP income $7.8m - Buyback authorization - Number #1 in edibles - Still a net-net with $840m of cash vs $730m market cap. Are you kidding me Just dropped into a dispensary in Toronto. Shelves are completely dominated by $CRON and $OGI brands. What do we think matters more to long term value propositions -- this level of brand ubiquity across specialty categories or not quite being breakeven on trailing income https://t.co/IaVLnBYk4H Just" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1920442788996346277) 2025-05-08T11:36Z [----] followers, 34.8K engagements "$OGI I was told by the cannabis pros there'd be no synergies from Motif deal: - Net Revenue +74% to 66m.SG&A only +11%; - Synergies now expected to be $15m vs $10m - Gross margin 33% with more to go as the deal gets integrated (legacy OGI 37%) - EBITDA $5m vs (1m) YoY. Net income positive - .0.8x book value $84m cash no debt 1x EV/S - Coupled with the CRON print last week not sure what else the market will need to see to accept that things really have changed in this sector. +15% pre-market" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1921874763166724291) 2025-05-12T10:27Z [----] followers, 14.2K engagements "$CPH.TO For as long as I've owned this (3 yrs) the market has found ways to get bearish about minutiae in the short-run: there's too much cash (lol) Absorica is declining (5% of revenue on a growing total who cares) Moberg (never priced in) SG&A is elevated (yes major acquisitions have one-off costs) it's taking too long for another deal (gee I wish they'd overpay for something so I can be less bored). Every time these concerns distract from the core thesis drivers: an asset-light money printer with two growing products major organic growth opportunities with minimal investment risk and a" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1922699770545451027) 2025-05-14T17:05Z [----] followers, 22.6K engagements "New Chris Hohn interview getting well-deserved buzz on here. What's always fascinating to me is how so many of these guys abide by the same simple investing principles and yet despite recognizing the clear wisdom in the approach most of us fail to take them seriously (as if it can't possibly be that simple). We quote but don't emulate: - Hohn: Competition is for losers/moats are crucial. Average person: Chases AI capex boom; - Hohn: You get an advantage from long-termism. Our average holding period is [--] years. Average person: [--] months; - Hohn: I've been successful by focusing on company" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1923009885207155071) 2025-05-15T13:37Z [----] followers, 194.7K engagements ""Historical share price performance in absolutely no way adds additional value to the current business. "The key is not simply looking at a historical ten-year record of achievement in stock price but in evaluating the current situation of the business and coming to a rational investment thesis." As pertinent now as it was then: for many investors the thesis begins and ends with "stonk up/stonk down" and replaces analytical thought. There's the opportunity: you get paid by developing a variant perception from first principles and building conviction early without needing the market for" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1937220821648277592) 2025-06-23T18:46Z [----] followers, 23.6K engagements "Nothing really changes" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1938014067295146370) 2025-06-25T23:18Z [----] followers, 48.8K engagements "$CRON continuing its incredible transformation: - Net Sales +21% to $33.5m (+13% ex GrowCo) - Gross margin low 40s for consecutive periods (was in the 20s just a year ago); - Adj. EBITDA +ve (vs. -$11m YoY) and CFO +ve - Major opex reductions despite topline growth. Getting very close to EBIT positive; - $3.6m of buybacks; - BVPS $3 vs. $2.15 share price. - Cash/invests/loan receiveables $850m USD vs. market cap of $820m - Growco expansion complete Only NA listed net-net I am aware of that is also a growth stock with no cash burn. Income statement should explode moving forward with the" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1953442697420964114) 2025-08-07T13:06Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements "$CPH.TO Blow out Q2 - Epuris +14% YoY; - Natroba +16% sequentially() - Blended gross margin 81% (come on); - EBITDA $7.5m - $22m of debt paid down + $2.1m of repurchases (not including ongoing buybacks in Q3 likely material) 8.5x EBITDA for this is insane especially given Natroba is still at 25% US share and the product hasn't even started earning intl revenue. https://www.cipherpharma.com/press-releases/cipher-pharmaceuticals-reports-second-quarter-2025-results-including-record-revenue/" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1953575979693355511) 2025-08-07T21:56Z [----] followers, 25.6K engagements "$CPH.TO A sleeper near-term catalyst here is an arbitration award in favor of Cipher. Do we think Craig would burn $1.3m usd on legal fees if there weren't reasonable prospects of monetary damages significantly higher than that I've been told Sun's taking HSD share of the market in Canada with Absorica - i.e. a couple mil worth of sales. Filings aren't public but not an unreasonable prospect of a material windfall from this" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1953847333713817697) 2025-08-08T15:54Z [----] followers, 21.1K engagements "$CPH.TO Thoughts on valuation. While there's obv seasonality to Natroba assuming some organic growth I'm pretty comfortable saying this is running at $30m EBITDA currently. Say 25.5m fully diluted out equity is worth $290m USD. Adding some Q3 cash say net debt $15m. So $305m EV 10x EBITDA. Interest exp immaterial significant NOLs remaining no capex ergo EBITDA = FCF. So a roughly 10% equity yield. Some will say that's fair: patent ex [----] same multiple as $rx.v etc. But few important things to keep in mind: - Epuris has no patent protection in Canada and has climbed to 50% share. Small niche" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1953853709240390000) 2025-08-08T16:19Z [----] followers, 28.6K engagements "@Geiger_Capital @ZacharyDonnini You mean this isn't working with young white men Crazy" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1958614207915860176) 2025-08-21T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPH.TO A worthwhile listen. I think Craig is truly one of the best microcap CEOs out there: zero appetite for bullshit extremely focused has a very clearly defined long term vision doesn't stray outside his competence patient yet urgent very attuned to the levers that drive value has the balls to make bold company-making bets (Natroba) but is highly sensitive to left tails (e.g. wants to eliminate debt before launching a tender absolutely refuses to overpay). Capital allocation has been inspiring to watch. An owner operator whose singular focus is on creating per share value. I've owned" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1961922634066846055) 2025-08-30T22:43Z [----] followers, 14K engagements "Taking some time off here for a bit. I am fucking sick to my stomach. If you still cant see how the growing rot and evil in the west is overwhelmingly downstream of the poisonous leftist ideology that has pervaded our institutions for a decade and all the catastrophic policy decisions that have been made pursuant to it hopefully this week has freed you from the psyop. The people celebrating this arent a small fringe and theyre absolutely certain they sit on the right side of history. Its not politics; its good vs evil and we need to wake the fuck up. Bluesky is reacting exactly like you would" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1965876484796764249) 2025-09-10T20:34Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements "$CRON $OGI $MSOS π To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open. New media post from Donald J. Trump https://t.co/B2g3Uc4xfT New media post from Donald J. Trump https://t.co/B2g3Uc4xfT" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1972610536518176901) 2025-09-29T10:32Z [----] followers, 25.8K engagements "Everyones way too levered lmao" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1976754288505286962) 2025-10-10T20:58Z [----] followers, 43K engagements "Often asked about how I pivoted careers so suddenly and cant stress how much of the battle is simply following your interests and reading everything in sight. From there you obviously need to take action but that piece is often easier than we think (just grow a pair). Were all indeed just winging it. This is obviously comical to cite in hindsight. But the only way I who've had half a dozen lives/careers by now broke into anything new is.reading 20-30 books on it. You can indeed just do things. Most people are less competent than they seem. Everyone is winging it. This is obviously comical to" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1977353353257419006) 2025-10-12T12:39Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements "Long $SNAP in size below $8. Patten recognition or idiocy One of my best investments was a 10% position in $SPOT in Dec [----] with the stock at an all time low of $75/share. The product was always lauded - great brand sticky subs 500m MAUs despite competing against the best companies in the history of capitalism. Yet the market hated the stock: "the labels will capture all the value" "they'll never make a profit" "SBC is egregious" etc. The stock traded 2x sales as a result. Fast forward [---] years and the stock has 10xd. What did the market miss - SPOT had prioritized growth/scale over" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1980667895760711819) 2025-10-21T16:10Z [----] followers, 51.6K engagements "An incredible phenomenon is that Wall Street often punishes companies led by superstar founders/CEOs and consequently their stock prices in the early years for precisely the behavior that makes them great managers: i.e. their focus on maximizing the long-term value of the enterprise at the expense of profits today. The opportunity for those investors astute enough to likewise look far enough ahead is that the market occasionally gives you the opportunity to ride the coattails of generational talents at an absurd entry price. Nothing really changes https://t.co/ScaOZkcpnm Nothing really" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1982478271171166403) 2025-10-26T16:03Z [----] followers, 46.7K engagements "$RIG agree wholly. Absent macro risk I think the path is pretty clear to utilization getting very tight into [--] and day rates inflecting accordingly. Market should start to price that in as we go into [--]. The debt is increasingly an asset at this point. Need for sourcing incremental barrels offshore becomes a big theme in the coming years imo. Long the basically the whole sector. $NE $VAL $SDRL $NOL.OL $TDW 1/7 Holy moly that $rig call was bullish. Some notes: contract award rate went [--] [--] [--] rig-years through the year. Q4 expected to do [--] rig-years. $ne $val 1/7 Holy moly that $rig call" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1983914921399042225) 2025-10-30T15:12Z [----] followers, 29.6K engagements "Perhaps my most contrarian take right now is that within the next decade or so the West will see a major resurgence of family values and the ushering in of a new baby boom" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1984326129738793342) 2025-10-31T18:26Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements "$EVC is just insanely cheap. EV at $2 is $300m. Ad-tech segment/Smadex revenue +104% and EBIT +378% YoY (38% and 91% sequentially). Running at $40m of EBTIDA and growing triple digits. At an extremely conservative 10x EBITDA that segment is alone worth $400m. You also get [--] tv stations and [--] radio stations that print money in election years and embedded spectrum value thrown in. Hard to imagine Smadex not getting separated to unlock the hidden value. 10% dividend yield to wait" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1985825314505965831) 2025-11-04T21:43Z [----] followers, 33.9K engagements "$EVC top holding now. This price makes absolutely no sense to me. 7.5% dividend to own an adtech segment with a venture capital growth rate and a media segment that likely generates record profits next year given the political climate going into midterms. And both segments alone are probably worth more than the EV. $EVC is just insanely cheap. EV at $2 is $300m. Ad-tech segment/Smadex revenue +104% and EBIT +378% YoY (38% and 91% sequentially). Running at $40m of EBTIDA and growing triple digits. At an extremely conservative 10x EBITDA that segment is alone worth $400m. You also get $EVC is" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1986479646238560568) 2025-11-06T17:03Z [----] followers, 24.9K engagements "Surprising at first glance that $TDW bought back no shares in Q3 after the long awaited refi and $500m authorization. They maxed out their limited capacity in prior Qs and now suddenly stopped altogether with +$400m of cash and the liberty to finally go big If you take mgmt at their word then unless something radically changed in a couple months it's hard not to conclude that they're gearing up for an acquisition: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988058390371684601 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988058390371684601" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1988058390371684601) 2025-11-11T01:37Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements "Another great interview with Hohn. "Very few things matter and most things don't matter at all" "What does matter in investing Competition/barriers to entry and long-termism" In other words: People want you have and you can sustainably provide it without meaningful competition/disruption risk. Econ [---]. As with most fields almost all the insight comes from mastery of [---] principles and the rest is all of rather marginal utility and liable to detract from what matters. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=wPNs8DZ0FvE&t=1824s New Chris Hohn interview getting well-deserved buzz on here. What's always" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1990466833028108776) 2025-11-17T17:07Z [----] followers, 148.3K engagements "Would frankly be shocked to not get a new partnership announcement in the next quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2005749991739195575) 2025-12-29T21:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Im looking at you $mcs" [X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2005750337949557021) 2025-12-29T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ragingbullcap Dylan MarrelloDylan Marrello posts on X about in the, business, $ogi, $cron the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance 31.25% stocks #6018 cryptocurrencies 9.03% countries 3.47% currencies 2.08% technology brands 2.08% exchanges 0.69% automotive brands 0.69% travel destinations 0.69%
Social topic influence in the 17.36%, business 9.72%, $ogi 7.64%, $cron 7.64%, $cphto 6.94%, debt 6.25%, $lb #2, $hhh 6.25%, $rig #40, $val #27
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @markemerritt @kennyack5 @grok @ericwanghermit @casinocapital @sfarringtonbkc @lars57360069 @310value @joinyellowbrick @diego_la_torre_ @franfra51045228 @natstewart5 @uzocapital @cupofcoffeecap @beelicapital @vince85623723 @divergent7651 @berkelkip @diegola95810478 @adhdcapital
Top assets mentioned LandBridge Company LLC (LB) Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Transocean LTD. (RIG) Validity (VAL) Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) Noble Corporation (NE) Seadrill Limited (SDRL) HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING (HKHC) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL) British American Tobacco (BTI) AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS) Bitcoin (BTC) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Good luck disrupting this AI $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $NOL.OL Buy when there's blood in the streets Buy when there's blood in the streets"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:50Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"$MIAX note to self: Next time a stock exchange IPOs with a low float and reasonable valuation don't size it like a coward"
X Link 2025-08-29T16:05Z [----] followers, 25K engagements
"$DBO.TO A life changing outcome thus far and insiders are still buying like mad. I've played out so many scenarios in my head and it's awfully hard to conjure up a path where this isn't yet another double from here. Welcome your most most persuasive bear case in the comments. $DBO.TO A nanocap asset-light royalty business to play the theme. Cinemark's update today notes last weekend was the best three-days ever for D-Box ticket sales. CNK is D-Box's biggest partner. Much of the upcoming slate will have a D-Box offering. In addition to $DBO.TO A nanocap asset-light royalty business to play the"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:55Z [----] followers, 21.9K engagements
"Sounds facetious but if you actually 1) read voraciously 2) think critically about that information from first principles and 3) have a time horizon longer than a few months you've already separated yourself from the majority. Applies to many facets of life not merely investing"
X Link 2025-12-23T19:15Z [----] followers, 62.9K engagements
"@natstewart5 @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics I've often wondered this as well. They're all over nearly every similar vehicle. Might be an aversion to coal or the MLP structure"
X Link 2026-01-13T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Very nice news for $NE and hugely validating to the broader offshore thesis. $NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL https://t.co/o3E03SYpSR $NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL https://t.co/o3E03SYpSR"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HITI incredibly bullish update provides a great read through for the rest of the industry. Challenge anyone to find me a sector in North America with valuations more disconnected from reality than Canadian cannabis. Where I disagree is on the need for institutional attention: we are getting very close to the point where the ongoing profitability inflection will be simply too hard to ignore. Companies operating with these kinds of unit economics secular growth rates and entry barriers cannot stay value traps for very long; the already preposterous multiples can't contract that much more."
X Link 2026-01-30T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Market share lead low cost of capital BAT strategic value brand dominance across categories valuation. The size/scale of the business implies a market cap that *could end up much higher. $300m of net sales already. Once they run that for cash flow/normalize margins it will be a money printer"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Entire telecom sector right now worth taking a very close look at. $ZEG.L shareholders have seen how much untapped value is sitting there to unlock in some of these entities. And that's even before the prospective uplift and cost savings that will come from D2D. $VOD $ASTS Nearly 1/3 of my book right now in this theme. $VZ are guiding to lower capex and committing to punchy capital returns out to 2028+12% today - biggest [--] day up move since [----] if $ASTS / D2D is part of the reason $VOD $VOD.L equity and calls are gonna explode. $VZ are guiding to lower capex and committing to punchy capital"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Worthwhile read $ogi $cron Here is my analysis of the Canadian Cannabis recreative sector plus a discussion of a few of my holdings. Hope you'll find it useful. Feedback and disparaging comments welcome. https://t.co/8xea1bGiIw Here is my analysis of the Canadian Cannabis recreative sector plus a discussion of a few of my holdings. Hope you'll find it useful. Feedback and disparaging comments welcome. https://t.co/8xea1bGiIw"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OGI there are a number of issues with this analysis as the author himself notes but it should be directionally correct and is a very important piece to all of this. The excise tax is fixed at $1/g meaning increased prices have a leveraged impact on earnings not simply because that incremental revenue is achieved with no incremental increase in cost but because it results in excise tax as a % of total sales declining. The company with the highest volumes and lowest ASP (i.e. highest excise tax %) therefore has the most leverage to rationalizing domestic prices. @ragingbullcap @Diego_La_Torre_"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OGI No shortage of comedy in this sector but shares being lower since James was announced as CEO is up there with the most hilarious item to-date. Very worthwhile listen π Ideal mindset to be leading the company at this stage π¦ TRADE TO BLACK Inside Organigram: What the New CEO is Focused on in [----] π $OGI @Organigram_Inc CEO James Yamanaka π BAT Background Leadership Style Vision for the Future etc. βπΏπ§Ί ETFs: π $YOLO $MSOS https://t.co/bQu1FLNC5X π¦ TRADE TO BLACK Inside Organigram: What the New CEO is Focused on in [----] π $OGI @Organigram_Inc CEO James Yamanaka π BAT Background"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Backwards looking. Companies get valued based on how much cash they're going to generate in the future not how much they've already made and first and second derivatives matter in valuation. Palantir is growing 100% and PayPal is shrinking. So PLTR goes from 100x sales to 50x in [----]. Palantir is tackling a large untapped TAM with limited competition; PayPal is in an immensely competitive space with disruption coming from all sides and a really challenged position. The market is telling you that Palantir is going to generate way more cash flow in the future than PayPal will and that"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital None of thats to say it isnt way too high"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital Patiently awaiting the Daniel Ek pivot"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital Untapped earnings potential is so high and the stock is priced like it never comes. Recipe for a multibagger if it does"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@siyul HODL that pro forma equity long-term Your implied basis is going to look remarkable down the road. Nicely done"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CPH.TO Looks like no usual monthly filing for NCIB activity this time around. Could be that everything went to debt reduction and the balance sheet is now entirely debt free although I don't think pausing was necessary for that. If we're lucky it may be that deal talks are materializing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020913392182087838 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020913392182087838"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sure except I think one can be substantially more confident in the direction of day rates than metals prices at this point given the market structure. I almost view the drillers as mission critical infrastructure like assets at this point - $ODL.OL outcome coming to drillships"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC @Lars57360069 @TommyDeepwater Don't disagree but there's also always an element of guessing on something like that. Offshore is increasingly losing its commodity status. Fixed to declining supply duopoly control and no substitutes to fill demand. The S/D dynamic is structural"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@qualtrim Lol not if you overpay and/or the durability of future cash flows declines. If only it were this simple"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Look at the way the economics are trending. When your revenue grows gross margins expand and opex stays flat earnings can rapidly inflect positive. Everyone is too busy looking in the review and fixating on long known issues like SBC which is easy to do when "stonk down". But the trends show clear progress and an imminent inflection. SNAP's problem historically is less about SBC and more about its struggle to scale unit economics because its infrastructure spend has grown in line with sales or even faster. They are finally starting to show gross margin expansion because subscriptions are pure"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TPB Market sniffing out the ALP momentum. There's a potential Celsius-like CPG growth story here"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PLBY Beyond deleveraging and JV upside the mark implies you're basically getting the ex-China business and HB for almost nothing. Pretty good Monday so far. https://investors.playboy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/playboy-signs-122-million-deal-united-trademark-group-accelerate https://investors.playboy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/playboy-signs-122-million-deal-united-trademark-group-accelerate"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Absolute must read https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:07Z [----] followers, 24.6K engagements
"Horizon Kinetics controlled extremely illiquid BTC miner $WELX just collapsed 25% on some $200K ish of volume on no news as far as I can tell. I ate a decent chunk and am full but the ask is still well below $4 -- shares generally trade closer to $4.50/$5. Unless I am missing something (and I very well could be) looks like some easy lunch money. Second time this has happened this year; first time shares recovered back to $4.50 in short order. Not investment advice never is. dyodd https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968403078463308160 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968403078463308160"
X Link 2025-09-17T19:53Z [----] followers, 21.6K engagements
"1/ $CMSG is a quirky and very mispriced OTC stock for small accounts with potentially explosive upside over time - this could double today and still look attractive (NB: very illiquid). Consensus Mining is another Horizon Kinetics related BTC miner. IPO'd this summer in darkness stock has found itself completely dislocated as lack of discovery has led to no bid for any legacy holders looking for some liquidity (shares have traded as high as $80 but are now at $40 on no news). Even if you're a Bitcoin skeptic the numbers are hard to ignore: ROICs have been absurdly good yet the enterprise"
X Link 2025-10-28T15:47Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements
"@cvanhooydonk Thanks hadn't caught that"
X Link 2025-12-19T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A few things I like heading into [----] that I haven't discussed much previously. $SNAP Got dinged with tax loss selling the last couple months but really like the set up ahead. Subscription fees for SNAP+/storage add high margin revenue streams while bloated cost structure should continue to fall as a % of sales. Intriguing strategic optionality for AI players (e.g. Perplexity deal). Continue to buy commons as well as selling $10 puts. $LB Almost cut in half from its highs only two months ago and is back to a compelling entry valuation. Added in size this AM. Call option on Permian data center"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:55Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements
"@cupofcoffeecap Also interesting but not fully there on it. $LB seems ripe for a short-term move higher/didn't think we'd ever see sub $50 again so that's exciting to me. Probably should own WBI too"
X Link 2026-01-05T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ReturnsJourney $LB obviously is the closest comp but it's not a micro cap nor is it anywhere near as cheap as TPL was back then"
X Link 2026-01-07T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$DBO.TO $IMAX How's this for over-indexing PLF tech-providers are keeping the entire industry afloat:"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$DBO.TO A potentially huge opportunity coming up in Q4. Dune [--] and Avengers are both scheduled to open on the same weekend in December. Since Dune [--] has an exclusive three week window with $IMAX Avengers will be forced to screen in other premium formats meaning DBOX should be a huge draw for it. Industry experts widely expect Avengers to be the biggest box office draw this year and could exceed $1.5B globally. π€ https://www.themovieblog.com/2026/01/dune-part-three-secures-all-imax-screens-for-three-weeks-in-december/ $DBO.TO back in the 70s is plain silly. 10x NTM EPS. Added some more."
X Link 2026-01-21T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SNAP big tell on how disconnected sentiment is from reality is how disproportionate the knee-jerk regurgitated talking point about elevated SBC is. Too high yes but it's middle of the pack as % of sales relative to tech peers. Will trend towards 12% this year. And a lot of that spend is R&D comp related to Specs which we know is getting separated and will get some third-party financing down the road. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019818347974606862 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019818347974606862"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RDI $RDIB Totally rational stuff going on here"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Now $NE just has to take $SDRL -- boom: duopoly"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The JU piece is immaterial wouldn't be surprised to see that piece divested. RIG now has enormous market power in floaters removes the entity that has prioritized utilization over price (ergo increasing pricing power) and has deleveraged itself putting itself in a position to return capital not too far down the road. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020896912929325456 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020896912929325456"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Scale and unit economics have been the focus and they've done a good job on that front but now they need to do a much better job managing their working capital. Hoping a more experience executive at the top will be able to help with that. Market is not going to re-rate the equity significantly until they prove out cash conversion. Also just too many unforced errors and suboptimal operating. E.g. working with Euro regulators is obvs a nightmare but the EU-GMP stuff at this point is just on them; it's amateur hour; the hiccup in exports; etc"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PLBY more people doing the math today. My numbers welcome pushback if I am getting any of this wrong. Fully diluted now $275m. Net debt end of Sept was $130m. For simplicity assuming $45m purchase price proceeds received today + $5m FCF pro forma net debt is $78m. So call it $350m EV. What do you get [--]. China licensing business. Worth thinking about the implied mark on the 50% sale. Annualizing last Q China revenues are $12m. UTG is paying $122m (front loaded) over [--] years for half of this.which is eye-popping when you consider the min guarantee is $8.3m + another $3.3m the first three years"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You can't evaluate this company sequentially. Royalties are driven by content windows out of their control. Had Jurassic Park previous Q which had no IMAX screens in NA to compete with and a few titles that were perfect for the offering. IMAX captured a hugely disproportionate amount of Avatar and beyond Zootopia there was nothing big. From April on this calendar year the slate is really good for them - e.g. Avengers is the expected to be the biggest draw and has no IMAX screens. Need to look at what they can control - system expansion and costs and both were super strong"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@tom_grlla Because MIAX doesnt have a brokerage platform that can drive 40B of event contracts in a year They get to free ride off Robinhoods customers. $36m of royalties is easily worth $500m to MIAX thats 10x what they paid for it [--] months ago. No brainer"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not easy at all of course. Even if you hit all [--] of these items you're very unlikely to get a [----] bagger. But it's a decent framework for big winners. Royalties attached to durable brands at the right price are one idea e.g. Buying something like $NATH [--] years ago. I actually think today $PLBY is something that checks all of these boxes"
X Link 2026-01-07T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON Not a net-net anymore π
$CRON $OGI $MSOS π To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open. $CRON $OGI $MSOS π To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open"
X Link 2025-09-29T15:25Z [----] followers, 17.5K engagements
"$MIAX π«‘ $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV"
X Link 2025-12-22T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Haven't discussed this one much but hallmarks of a multi-bagger all over it: asset-light royalties on an indestructible brand (i.e. perpetual duration) at a deep-value price rapid deleveraging societal tailwinds tiny absolute market cap relative to potential tons of free optionality on licensing the brand in areas we can't even comprehend yet. Sounds bizarre but it reminds of me the Horizon TPL thesis in the 90s"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BeeliCapital @KennyAck5 Because they are going to raise third party capital in that vehicle. So SNAP shareholders get their interest in SPECS diluted but they no longer need to fund the R&D from the core biz a fine trade off because the market values Specs as a donut"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$NE $SDRL $VAL $RIG IMO offshore bears are too tethered to past cycles and are missing that this time really does look a lot different. What has been responsible for the vicious cyclical downturns historically Supply side dynamics (always the culprit of busted cycles) fragmentation and high financial leverage. In previous cycles you've had drillers lever up to bring new supply online (at the worst time) creating a consequent supply/demand imbalance; given carry costs/negative operating leverage and exacerbated by debt burdens you then get drillers desperate to generate revenue competing on"
X Link 2025-03-07T15:46Z [----] followers, 35.5K engagements
"$TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but that vastly understates the outcome given all the capital returns. I believe TPL has cumulatively split its stock 45x since Murray's write up. 3.075m S/O in [----] x [--] implies 138m theoretical shares today. Actual share count today is half of that (69m). So capital appreciation on a per share basis roughly doubles to something like 650x due to buyback accretion. And then there's all the dividends. I'm too lazy to add them all up and"
X Link 2026-01-07T17:08Z [----] followers, 59.3K engagements
"Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Founders-Letter-2026_Final.pdf $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Founders-Letter-2026_Final.pdf $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities"
X Link 2026-01-13T01:49Z [----] followers, 32.4K engagements
"My "asset-light hard asset" plays starting [----] off with a bang for obvious reasons. $NRP $LB $GMX.TO"
X Link 2026-01-13T20:51Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements
"Seriously though $PLBY https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306s=20 $TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but that vastly understates the outcome given all the capital returns. I believe TPL has cumulatively split its https://t.co/MxxljfE281 https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306s=20 $TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Increased competition and changing consumer preferences is a good signal for $haypp $BTI $BATS Velo had a 24% market share as of EoY [----] while charging 86% of the price of Zyn across the board. That's up from a tiny 6.1% market share [--] months ago at MUCH MUCH lower prices. Back then some (idiots) criticized the discounting strategy. it clearly worked. https://t.co/VUz6FJfQkJ $BTI $BATS Velo had a 24% market share as of EoY [----] while charging 86% of the price of Zyn across the board. That's up from a tiny 6.1% market share [--] months ago at MUCH MUCH lower prices. Back then some (idiots)"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not to mention they just reported their positive operating profit quarter ever"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You need a CFTC issued DCM license to serve as a futures exchange in the US Bitstamp doesn't work for this. The MIAXdx license is a unique type of DCM license in that it is one of few that allows for non-intermediated clearing - it allows HOOD to offer futures directly without going through an FCM - so they can capture each part of the value chain. It's why getting this license makes a lot of sense for hood. Regulators are nevertheless scrutinizing stuff like this after the FTX blow up but that's likely why HOOD has brought Susquehana and MIAX into the JV so that there is some separation"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@FriendlyCapMgmt Cannabis gets decimated by everything. Even legalization is negative"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Backwards looking. They quite literally just reported a GAAP profit MAUs are flat and critically ARPUs are moving in the right direction across all regions. I don't care if they lose a moderate amount of DAUs if they're monetizing them more effectively Assuming 10% topline growth next year at 60% gross margin and flat opex they'll do over $700m of EBIT next year. So that 1x sales multiple puts you at 11x EBIT assuming zero improvement to opex. Gives no credit to perplexity value to Specs and assumes no R&D cuts. $SHOP EBIT is roughly 2x and its market cap is 20x higher"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The 20+ years of Murray Stahl's shareholder letters at $FRMO and the company's trajectory more broadly are just so so bizarre. Yet shrouded by all the eccentricity they've quietly compounded BVPS at more than 25% since [----]. A fascinating person and company particularly given the combination of a really patient value obsessed Buffett disciple building a crypto business at a glacial pace through a pink sheet stock makes for a natural investor base of practically zero. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794027909952241787 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794027909952241787"
X Link 2024-05-24T15:29Z [----] followers, 27K engagements
"When I said these business can "run a very long way" I meant forever. https://x.com/nmtuan_14/status/1845929741901078950 I knew TPL was the second stock Buffett ever bought but never knew he still owns it. Im never selling my TPL shares π https://x.com/nmtuan_14/status/1845929741901078950 I knew TPL was the second stock Buffett ever bought but never knew he still owns it. Im never selling my TPL shares π"
X Link 2024-10-14T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are obviously one of the highest quality asset classes but rarely trade at discounted prices. This is an exception. - The core options exchange segment is a fast growing gem that has captured just shy of 20% of US multi-listed options volume disrupting a long-standing oligopoly despite maintaining competitive unit economics. ADV"
X Link 2025-12-17T17:54Z [----] followers, 47.5K engagements
"Perfect day to be a $MIAX owner. 12m of market wide volume [--] mins into the session. https://www.miaxglobal.com/ Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://t.co/DITK4pcl7v https://t.co/o4trxruy29 https://www.miaxglobal.com/ Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://t.co/DITK4pcl7v https://t.co/o4trxruy29"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MIAX One of the best things about this business how much it thrives during days like this. 10m options contracts already traded on its exchanges. Stock should start to work once the lock-up overhang is cleared in coming months. https://www.miaxglobal.com/ https://www.miaxglobal.com/"
X Link 2026-01-29T18:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG $VAL Not the deal I was expecting at all.but man is this bullish for the sector *TRANSOCEAN TO BUY VALARIS IN STOCK DEAL VALUED AT ABOUT $5.8B *TRANSOCEAN TO BUY VALARIS IN STOCK DEAL VALUED AT ABOUT $5.8B"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:15Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"And I'd be remiss to not mention the free call option on r/wallstreebets meme-ing this to infinity"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BTW MIAX plucked that license for $50m of the FTX bankruptcy less than [--] years ago. How's that for some good distressed investing https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/ftx-sells-ledgerx-to-miami-exchange-owner-for-50-million#::text=FTX%20Sells%20LedgerX%20to%20Miami%20Exchange%20Owner%20for%20%2450%20Million https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/ftx-sells-ledgerx-to-miami-exchange-owner-for-50-million#::text=FTX%20Sells%20LedgerX%20to%20Miami%20Exchange%20Owner%20for%20%2450%20Million"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SNAP now entering territory where sentiment has become entirely disconnected from reality. Almost 1x sales on a 60% gross margin social media business with 1B MAU and a new high-margin subscription monetization model running at $1B and growing 60%. Perplexity deal seems to actually be rolling out despite question marks raised on the call. All time low despite the PnL never being in better shape. Beneficiary of AI. This will be a multi-bagger from here. Bookmark it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021959648559997140 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021959648559997140"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:48Z [----] followers, 48.9K engagements
"The reason this is interesting from a $MIAX shareholder perspective is that beyond extremely limited commentary in a PR that simply announced the deal the company hasn't outwardly commented on the opportunity. Shareholders I've spoken to largely haven't given it much thought. Meanwhile $HOOD a company 20x the size of MIAX even after declining 40% was asked about Rothera at least [--] separate times on their earnings call and highlighted it in their earnings release. There is very little overlap between those who follow HOOD and MIAX so the size and scope of opportunity for this JV highlighted on"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SNAP one of those situations where sentiment could not be more in the toilet yet virtually every piece of the story is improving. ARPU and MAU growth gross margin expanding to 59% even a small gaap profit. Running at almost $1B subs revenue (high margin 71% growth). Costs can rapidly drop with Specs separation (and maybe that turns into something valuable). Perplexity revenue coming this year + endless optionality around AI. Bad day to be reporting as a tech company and market will price anchor but this doesn't make any sense at $6 ($10B market cap). Another 10% revenue growth at the current"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Own physical assets especially those that will play a role in the revolution. $LB $NRP"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:02Z [----] followers, 18.9K engagements
"$MIAX Doesn't seem like anyone understands the latent value in the 10% stake they retained in their sale of the MIAXdx futures license to the Robinhood/Susquehanna JV (Rothera) $HOOD Prediction markets are growing like crazy. 2.3B in Q3 to [---] in Q4 (+270% QoQ) and already 4B in the first [--] weeks of [----]. The economics are $0.01/contract to the broker (HOOD) and $0.01 to the exchange clearinghouse. By purchasing the MIAX license HOOD captures more of that $0.02 total fee HOOD notes on the call they "anticipate a significant portion of volume will move over to Rothera". MIAX owns 10% of the"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:34Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is conclusive that he is terrible. But one needs to put that into the context of the business he's been building. SNAP has had to compete with Meta for eye balls and ad-dollars.- an earlier mover better capitalized with an outlier winner as its CEO - and endless other platforms. So the deck has been stacked against him from the start. What"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$snap @decodefinance @KennyAck5 Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is conclusive that @decodefinance @KennyAck5 Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LB Data centers in the Permian are looking increasingly inevitable Horizon Kinetics guesstimates $80m of effectively pure margin revenue for 1GW on 2K acres. Even if it's half of that this just the beginning of the re-rating for Landbridge. I'd argue you're still actually not paying anything for that optionality at this price. https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Horizon-Kinetics-Q4-2024-Commentary_Final.pdf https://eastdaley.com/the-burner-tip/chevron-plans-data-center-power-complex-in-west-texas-supporting-permian-demand Own physical assets especially those that will play a role in the"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:48Z [----] followers, 42.1K engagements
"@Vince85623723 @310Value Well I'd suggest the duration lack of capital intensity and extremely high margins justifies 25x EBITDA for LB. So you can do the math on what just a single one of these might be worth. Currently doing $200m of EBITDA so a single data 1GW data center alone is a big deal"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Published an update on some ideas. Link in comments. Money-weighted return (XIRR) across the ideas assuming equal notional allocation to each has been 50% so far. Pareto principle driving that outcome naturally"
X Link 2025-09-08T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GoodLuckCrypto1 @TheLaurenChen The we were there first argument only holds weight with leftists when it suits them. When white people use it its called racism or intolerance"
X Link 2025-10-10T19:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Divergent7651 I like the call on Malone allocating at a small scale"
X Link 2025-10-28T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Class act right to the end π https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov1025.pdf https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov1025.pdf"
X Link 2025-11-10T19:04Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements
"$GMX.TO mgmt present frequently and never miss an opportunity to communicate the view that their shares trade at a very steep discount to intrinsic value (true). GMX has $35m of cash and securities mostly held in juniors that trade at far lesser discounts and it has very limited cash needs to operate. Their response to the persistent valuation naturally is to plough a whopping 0.03% of their cash into share repurchases over a [--] month period. Perhaps worse than failing to be aggressive is that they bought back such a miniscule number rather than none at all. It's a tell: they misunderstand the"
X Link 2025-11-13T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Contrast with something like $KEWL - run by people who understand basic financial concepts like opportunity cost and time value: Acquire latent royalties return all unnecessary capital to shareholders reducing basis to zero.and wait for the royalties to produce. Pretty simple playbook. But no let's just keep doing what we've been doing for decades to no avail. https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/keweenaw-land-association-kewl https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/keweenaw-land-association-kewl"
X Link 2025-11-13T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$KEWL legacy shareholders having their entire basis returned to invest as they please now have effectively a free call option on any future royalties produced by the land. Globex shareholders instead get exposure to GDX constituents they could get pure play exposure to by purchasing an ETF. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989087843319251041 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989087843319251041"
X Link 2025-11-13T21:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The best theses are simple and turn on less than a handful of (mostly qualitative) drivers. No complex spreadsheets necessary. You should be able to fly a [---] through the gap between price and intrinsic value (high school level math and an appeal to common sense ought to be sufficient here). The key insight is being able to cut through the noise the minutiae and the prevailing sentiment to hone in on what really matters. I have made $CRON a top [--] position behind $TDW and $CPH.TO I have made $CRON a top [--] position behind $TDW and $CPH.TO"
X Link 2024-03-17T16:44Z [----] followers, 34.6K engagements
"There are so many incredible long-duration opportunities still out there right now being made possible by the ubiquitous myopia that pervades markets today. Every year droves of investors flock to Omaha to hear sermons on how generational wealth is created simply through the discounted purchase and holding of quality long-duration assets for decades; only for those same pilgrims to soon return home to obsess over quarterly EPS estimates and the fed funds rate. Retail's path to alpha is to pay little mind to such noise. Like all Buffett wisdom it's deceptively simple. So we assume there must"
X Link 2024-04-04T19:33Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements
"I'll be pitching a "value with a catalyst" Canadian microcap. The set-up rhymes with Cipher in many respects. @InsiderIdeas @PaulAndreola @dsmoak98 @nicholasp66 @ClarkSquareCap @hurdle_rate @MikeFritzell @ToffCap @BerkelKip @Kreuzmann13 @david_katunaric @FoxCastlehold @ragingbullcap @jptissot1 @CompTortoise @stoiccapital72 @JoashReid1 @Jam_invest Forgot that one its tonight heres the link: https://t.co/xUIfVtmSmn @InsiderIdeas @PaulAndreola @dsmoak98 @nicholasp66 @ClarkSquareCap @hurdle_rate @MikeFritzell @ToffCap @BerkelKip @Kreuzmann13 @david_katunaric @FoxCastlehold @ragingbullcap"
X Link 2024-04-08T16:17Z [----] followers, 91.8K engagements
"1/ $BQE.V Alright here's the pitch. First of all thank you @DiegoLa95810478 for bringing this name to my attention a couple months back. I'll be sharing a full write-up in the coming days but here's the essence: The company develops water management and treatment solutions for its partners mainly mining/resource companies. It might sound niche complicated and/or cyclical but bear with me. I'll be pitching a "value with a catalyst" Canadian microcap. The set-up rhymes with Cipher in many respects. I'll be pitching a "value with a catalyst" Canadian microcap. The set-up rhymes with Cipher in"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, 180.2K engagements
"1/ $HHH In his [----] letter Buffett highlights an investment he made in a commercial property near NYU in the early 90's. The wisdom he shares is highly apposite here and is more generally insight we would all be better off keeping front of mind. $HHH Doubled up below $65. Ty ty $HHH Doubled up below $65. Ty ty"
X Link 2024-04-10T19:22Z [----] followers, 132.9K engagements
"@ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but $TDW or $NRP fine too) tobacco ( $MO $BTI) and sorry in advance to the 'but it has no intrinsic value' crowd but $BTC"
X Link 2024-04-21T15:50Z [----] followers, 71.2K engagements
"My "go to the beach for 30-years and come back happy" portfolio. The broader themes are more important than the names. 1) Land BTC and uniquely advantaged energy cos - own scarcity as a play on the money printers never getting turned off (i.e. short fiat). 2) Energy and the tobacco names - over long periods it pays to own perpetually low multiple names returning all their excess cash when the market is completely off on terminal value risk. Thoughts pushbacks insults Better ways to play these ideas @ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but"
X Link 2024-04-21T16:39Z [----] followers, 50.2K engagements
"Just published some musings regarding current market dynamics and where I'm currently spending my time. Some specific and brief thoughts on: $NRP $BTU $MREO $HHH $JBGS $CLPR $CRON $MSOS"
X Link 2024-06-20T18:24Z [----] followers, 28.8K engagements
"@ettingermentum HAHAHA this party needs to be completely deleted and built anew. Incredible"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Top [--] positions right now (with a little cheating): $CPH.TO $CRON + $OGI $MREO $TDW $CLMT"
X Link 2024-08-17T14:49Z [----] followers, 81.6K engagements
"$HHH The best take-private plays are those you'd be happy owning at the current price if the bid fails to materialize. That's very much the case here as far as I'm concerned as HHH is clearly materially undervalued and nearing a major inflection point in free cash generation. Linked article reinforces the win-win nature of the set-up noting that Ackman's bid likely needs to be "something over $100" (vs current $77) while also pointing out that the company is set to earn over $500 of FCF this year. "This year OReilly says the company is on track to generate $751 million in cash flow which"
X Link 2024-09-24T14:56Z [----] followers, 43.6K engagements
"$LB By far my biggest mistake this year was getting wind that Murray Stahl was heavily invested in an upcoming IPO with an abundance of similarities to $TPL watching it surge on the IPO date and deciding I'd wait for a pullback to add because I couldn't stomach buying something going up in a straight line. Yikes. I'm probably still committing the same mistake if this is anything like TPL in not buying today. These infinite duration "asset-light hard-asset" plays can run a very long way"
X Link 2024-10-14T16:00Z [----] followers, 101.1K engagements
"$TPL which is a gazzillion bagger all time is up 100% ytd. You could have sucked your thumb watching it for decades and it would never have been too late. Such is the beauty of great business with these characteristics. Stahl calls it the best business in the world. I bought some $LB. Ill buy more if it goes down; Ill buy more if it goes up. On top of it all Im hard pressed to think of a better way to play data center build outs for a generalist. $LB By far my biggest mistake this year was getting wind that Murray Stahl was heavily invested in an upcoming IPO with an abundance of similarities"
X Link 2024-10-14T17:07Z [----] followers, 54K engagements
"@rhaej The point is that the land itself is the value whatever the ultimate use may be. Take a read through this beginning at [--] with particular attention to 26-29. https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf"
X Link 2024-10-14T18:20Z [----] followers, 30K engagements
"Really common theme for me over the last couple years has been a hunt for scarcity in a world of increasing monetary expansion/debasement. Supply constrained Manhattan real estate ( $CLPR $SEG) ;development companies with a supply monopoly ( $HHH $JBGS); offshore assets at wide discounts to replacement value ( $TDW $RIG); Bitcoin. $LB Owning more than 200K surface acres strategically located in the heart of the Permian to take advantage of not just a scarcity of land but of energy probably does better than all of the above over the long-term. $TPL which is a gazzillion bagger all time is up"
X Link 2024-10-14T18:56Z [----] followers, 18K engagements
"$HHH $LB Buy right and sit tight. Great stuff from Stahl beginning at p. [--] on the virtue of patience when holding forever assets and how to think about land assets. https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf @rhaej The point is that the land itself is the value whatever the ultimate use may be. Take a read through this beginning at [--] with particular attention to 26-29. https://t.co/fG9CK52Ahf https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Q1-2023-Commentary_FINAL.pdf @rhaej The point is that the land itself is the value whatever the ultimate use may be."
X Link 2024-10-15T21:08Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements
"And with that I've just shared some thoughts at the link in bio about the current offshore set-up my basket approach and an interesting microcap driller that I've been adding to over the last month $NOL.OL $TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Offshore today looks to me a lot like this real estate trade did then. Have been heavily adding across the complex $tdw $val $ne $rig $nol.ol Offshore today looks to me a lot like this real estate trade did then. Have been heavily adding across the complex $tdw $val $ne $rig $nol.ol"
X Link 2024-10-24T10:34Z [----] followers, 67.4K engagements
"$BQE.V Important to not read too much into quarterly results given the nascent story but this looks to be just an exceptional Q3 across the board. - Proportional Revenue of $10m (+28%YoY). While a lot of that topline growth is driven by the welcome resurgence of the China JVs (+95%) (which are now recovering zinc in addition to copper) recurring revenue from Operation Services (priority KPI) grew to $3.9m (+23%). - Importantly the quality of the recurring revenue is really starting to show through. Ex. Minto each of the operating projects equaled or exceeded operating days and volumes treated"
X Link 2024-11-28T23:24Z [----] followers, 15.8K engagements
"$CRON 40% revenue growth cash breakeven drasitically improved cost structured. Enterprise value: -$100m Find me another North American net-net with this grow rate and latent potential"
X Link 2024-12-12T14:58Z [----] followers, 21.3K engagements
"$OGI Lol I think the market may have to start paying attention now - Q4 Revenue +22% - Gross margin up to 37% - Adj. EBITDA 5.9m up from 0.1m Q423 and $8.5m on the year on the year (+55%) - $9m of cost savings realized this Q - Operating cash flow $9m - +18% on the year in international sales (higher margin) #1 market share well capitalized cost of capital advantage through BAT parntership world class efficiency and improving.and it is beyond cheap at a low to mid single digit EBITDA multiple pro forma Motif. I have taken this up to my second largest holding"
X Link 2024-12-18T12:38Z [----] followers, 26.9K engagements
"Some optimistic portfolio predictions this year: - $BQE.V - Seabridge gets KSM financed; - $RDI - Cannon Park Wellington and the Viaduct get sold with proceeds paying down 1/3 of the debt. At the same time the cinemas rebound and EBITDA exits 2x higher. - $HHH - Ackman takes it out at $100 - $ZEG.L - both the fibercos get monetized - $MREO - setrusumab hits the second interim and alvelestat gets a mark of $3/share. $KSS - private equity makes a bid $CPH.TO - delivers another impactful acquisition"
X Link 2025-01-02T20:13Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"1/ $RDI lastest piece at link in bio. Reading is hated family controlled and highly levered. It is also one of the most mispriced equities I have ever seen. Due to high debt levels ($215m debt vs $45m market cap) and $70m of maturities this year (against $11m of cash and $12m LQA EBITDA vs. $20m interest expense) the equity is trading like its game over. But it's not"
X Link 2025-01-23T21:56Z [----] followers, 43.7K engagements
"$GMX.TO has grown into a top [--] position for me since @ICBarrett pitched me on it in the summer. Did not take long to convince me this was a highly compelling opportunity with a near term inflection and virtually zero downside. I still think the stock has a long way to run and is a great low risk way for a generalist to play commodities/precious metals. Yet another big value catalyst at $GMX.TO Jack Stoch spent his career amassing an enormous amount of latent value in $GMX.TO. It owned one property at float in [----] and now has [---] including [---] royalties. I've already discussed the two big"
X Link 2025-01-26T14:09Z [----] followers, 23.5K engagements
"$CRON EV now down to -$135m. NCAV/share $2.37 (growing) vs $1.87 stock price. Zero burn. $140m revenue growing 30%. Owns leading brand. Market supply and demand finding equilibrium and prices starting to tick up off the bottom. Just silly cheap"
X Link 2025-01-27T18:03Z [----] followers, 33.5K engagements
"$GMX.TO I've spent a lot time the last [--] months or so studying this name and ths interview really drives home how great of a set up this is: - huge margin of safety with half the market cap in cash and securities no debt and hidden asset value worth multiples of the EV; - [--] years worth of value creation long dormant finally hitting a major inflection propelled by massive tailwinds; - An honest and aligned owner operator who has patiently and steadily built this to a tipping point and is now looking for a successor and an exit (this is worth multiples in a sale); - A proposed successor with a"
X Link 2025-01-27T22:31Z [----] followers, 19.4K engagements
"$ASTS I officially joined the spacemob last week after some very helpful chats with @AboveAvgOdds and @Uzocapital among others. My conclusion: the right tail is simply way too large to ignore on this"
X Link 2025-02-10T15:25Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements
"$OGI Finally got around to doing a long form on this one at link in bio. The company's intrinsic value and its share price have been in complete divergence since the BAT partnership announcement in Nov [--]. Despite the story improving in every way the major overhang on the stock is whether this business can achieve profitability. My view: the combined post-acquisition entity likely already is"
X Link 2025-02-18T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPH.TO Now at 10x TTM EBITDA - i.e. assuming no synergies no growth no Natroba expansion into Canada/intl. Incredibly cheap"
X Link 2025-02-25T17:04Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements
"$HHH These results are outstanding unsurprisingly to anyone that's been paying close attention to this story at a fundamental level. Easy to get lost trying piece together all of Ackman's motivations but I have no doubt part of this boils down to his recognition of the arrival of a major inflection point in cash flow generation and wanting more of it to himself. This update certainly makes his proposal look even more ridiculous. https://investor.howardhughes.com/news-releases/news-release-details/howard-hughes-holdings-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-0"
X Link 2025-02-26T21:28Z [----] followers, 74.1K engagements
"$NRP just casually putting up $250m of cash flow in weak coal and terrible soda ash environments. That's a 15% FCF yield on the enterprise and much higher in a normalized environment. All of that could be available for distribution soon with deleveraging nearly done- could support a 4-5 fold increase in annual distributions. Extremely attractive yield with minimal brain damage"
X Link 2025-02-28T13:46Z [----] followers, 66.6K engagements
"So many eye popping disconnects emerging in certain sectors. Here's one: $SDRL is currently valued at $150m per active and owned drillship (i.e. excl stacked fleet and semis). Replacement cost valuations get ridiculed but it matters when global supply is shrinking"
X Link 2025-03-04T15:13Z [----] followers, 24.7K engagements
"$tdw more insider buying in the offshore complexπ Insider signalling running completely contrary to market sentiment Big insider buy at $TDW. Code P stands for an open market or private purchase. https://t.co/fVZhDbShMt Big insider buy at $TDW. Code P stands for an open market or private purchase. https://t.co/fVZhDbShMt"
X Link 2025-03-14T18:04Z [----] followers, 30K engagements
"$VAL $480K day rate in a soft environment Further evidence imo of the bull thesis playing out - viz. that this has become a much better rational industry. Demand will always ebb and flow but cycles break on the supply side; and with limited incremental supply coming online coupled with healthy balance sheets and increasing benefits of consolidation I'm skeptical we see the dynamics that historically have precipitated declining day rates. $SDRL $RIG $NE $VAL Two year term for DS-10 (7G) at $480k in lower cost W Africa along w/ two unpriced options at [--] year each. 2Q-3Q [----] start Strong"
X Link 2025-03-31T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HAYPP.ST Nicotine is unstoppable"
X Link 2025-04-03T14:20Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements
"Some things I like right now $CPH.TO $OGI/ $CRON $GMX.TO Broadcaster basket ( $EVC $GTN $SSP) Busted bio basket ( $ARVN $KROS) $HAYPP.ST $NRP $RDI $ENDI $BRAG"
X Link 2025-04-11T03:14Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements
"$NE And yet down 60% from the highs trading below BK emergence price divs +bb 10% and growing scarcity value. Very long. $NE smashes it out of the ballpark with a massive (30%) increase in backlog "Approximately [--] rig years of new contract awards representing $2.2 to $2.7 billion of revenue potential; backlog increased to $7.5 billion." Previous guidance for [----] kept $VAL $RIG $SDRL $BORR $NE smashes it out of the ballpark with a massive (30%) increase in backlog "Approximately [--] rig years of new contract awards representing $2.2 to $2.7 billion of revenue potential; backlog increased to"
X Link 2025-04-28T20:41Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements
"$HAYPP.ST $HAYPP after meeting with management last week I took my position up materially. My sense is that their stated commitment to thinking long-term is genuine and not just the usual marketing language. A great example of Marathon's observation in Capital Returns of the unusual quality of Nordic management teams. Quite an exceptional business they've built out. And the growth algorithm in the US spits out numbers that are hard to fathom. Judging by the price action this week I'm guessing I'm not the only one who came away with this impression."
X Link 2025-05-02T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HAYPP.ST Unstoppable. $HAYPP.ST Nicotine is unstoppable https://t.co/gZue59sFi8 $HAYPP.ST Nicotine is unstoppable https://t.co/gZue59sFi8"
X Link 2025-05-07T13:29Z [----] followers, 20.7K engagements
"$CRON Q1 Out: - Double digit topline growth (again); - EBIT nearly breakeven at -$4m (Vs. -$15m YoY) - Interest income more than offsets EBIT shortfall - GAAP income $7.8m - Buyback authorization - Number #1 in edibles - Still a net-net with $840m of cash vs $730m market cap. Are you kidding me Just dropped into a dispensary in Toronto. Shelves are completely dominated by $CRON and $OGI brands. What do we think matters more to long term value propositions -- this level of brand ubiquity across specialty categories or not quite being breakeven on trailing income https://t.co/IaVLnBYk4H Just"
X Link 2025-05-08T11:36Z [----] followers, 34.8K engagements
"$OGI I was told by the cannabis pros there'd be no synergies from Motif deal: - Net Revenue +74% to 66m.SG&A only +11%; - Synergies now expected to be $15m vs $10m - Gross margin 33% with more to go as the deal gets integrated (legacy OGI 37%) - EBITDA $5m vs (1m) YoY. Net income positive - .0.8x book value $84m cash no debt 1x EV/S - Coupled with the CRON print last week not sure what else the market will need to see to accept that things really have changed in this sector. +15% pre-market"
X Link 2025-05-12T10:27Z [----] followers, 14.2K engagements
"$CPH.TO For as long as I've owned this (3 yrs) the market has found ways to get bearish about minutiae in the short-run: there's too much cash (lol) Absorica is declining (5% of revenue on a growing total who cares) Moberg (never priced in) SG&A is elevated (yes major acquisitions have one-off costs) it's taking too long for another deal (gee I wish they'd overpay for something so I can be less bored). Every time these concerns distract from the core thesis drivers: an asset-light money printer with two growing products major organic growth opportunities with minimal investment risk and a"
X Link 2025-05-14T17:05Z [----] followers, 22.6K engagements
"New Chris Hohn interview getting well-deserved buzz on here. What's always fascinating to me is how so many of these guys abide by the same simple investing principles and yet despite recognizing the clear wisdom in the approach most of us fail to take them seriously (as if it can't possibly be that simple). We quote but don't emulate: - Hohn: Competition is for losers/moats are crucial. Average person: Chases AI capex boom; - Hohn: You get an advantage from long-termism. Our average holding period is [--] years. Average person: [--] months; - Hohn: I've been successful by focusing on company"
X Link 2025-05-15T13:37Z [----] followers, 194.7K engagements
""Historical share price performance in absolutely no way adds additional value to the current business. "The key is not simply looking at a historical ten-year record of achievement in stock price but in evaluating the current situation of the business and coming to a rational investment thesis." As pertinent now as it was then: for many investors the thesis begins and ends with "stonk up/stonk down" and replaces analytical thought. There's the opportunity: you get paid by developing a variant perception from first principles and building conviction early without needing the market for"
X Link 2025-06-23T18:46Z [----] followers, 23.6K engagements
"Nothing really changes"
X Link 2025-06-25T23:18Z [----] followers, 48.8K engagements
"$CRON continuing its incredible transformation: - Net Sales +21% to $33.5m (+13% ex GrowCo) - Gross margin low 40s for consecutive periods (was in the 20s just a year ago); - Adj. EBITDA +ve (vs. -$11m YoY) and CFO +ve - Major opex reductions despite topline growth. Getting very close to EBIT positive; - $3.6m of buybacks; - BVPS $3 vs. $2.15 share price. - Cash/invests/loan receiveables $850m USD vs. market cap of $820m - Growco expansion complete Only NA listed net-net I am aware of that is also a growth stock with no cash burn. Income statement should explode moving forward with the"
X Link 2025-08-07T13:06Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements
"$CPH.TO Blow out Q2 - Epuris +14% YoY; - Natroba +16% sequentially() - Blended gross margin 81% (come on); - EBITDA $7.5m - $22m of debt paid down + $2.1m of repurchases (not including ongoing buybacks in Q3 likely material) 8.5x EBITDA for this is insane especially given Natroba is still at 25% US share and the product hasn't even started earning intl revenue. https://www.cipherpharma.com/press-releases/cipher-pharmaceuticals-reports-second-quarter-2025-results-including-record-revenue/"
X Link 2025-08-07T21:56Z [----] followers, 25.6K engagements
"$CPH.TO A sleeper near-term catalyst here is an arbitration award in favor of Cipher. Do we think Craig would burn $1.3m usd on legal fees if there weren't reasonable prospects of monetary damages significantly higher than that I've been told Sun's taking HSD share of the market in Canada with Absorica - i.e. a couple mil worth of sales. Filings aren't public but not an unreasonable prospect of a material windfall from this"
X Link 2025-08-08T15:54Z [----] followers, 21.1K engagements
"$CPH.TO Thoughts on valuation. While there's obv seasonality to Natroba assuming some organic growth I'm pretty comfortable saying this is running at $30m EBITDA currently. Say 25.5m fully diluted out equity is worth $290m USD. Adding some Q3 cash say net debt $15m. So $305m EV 10x EBITDA. Interest exp immaterial significant NOLs remaining no capex ergo EBITDA = FCF. So a roughly 10% equity yield. Some will say that's fair: patent ex [----] same multiple as $rx.v etc. But few important things to keep in mind: - Epuris has no patent protection in Canada and has climbed to 50% share. Small niche"
X Link 2025-08-08T16:19Z [----] followers, 28.6K engagements
"@Geiger_Capital @ZacharyDonnini You mean this isn't working with young white men Crazy"
X Link 2025-08-21T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPH.TO A worthwhile listen. I think Craig is truly one of the best microcap CEOs out there: zero appetite for bullshit extremely focused has a very clearly defined long term vision doesn't stray outside his competence patient yet urgent very attuned to the levers that drive value has the balls to make bold company-making bets (Natroba) but is highly sensitive to left tails (e.g. wants to eliminate debt before launching a tender absolutely refuses to overpay). Capital allocation has been inspiring to watch. An owner operator whose singular focus is on creating per share value. I've owned"
X Link 2025-08-30T22:43Z [----] followers, 14K engagements
"Taking some time off here for a bit. I am fucking sick to my stomach. If you still cant see how the growing rot and evil in the west is overwhelmingly downstream of the poisonous leftist ideology that has pervaded our institutions for a decade and all the catastrophic policy decisions that have been made pursuant to it hopefully this week has freed you from the psyop. The people celebrating this arent a small fringe and theyre absolutely certain they sit on the right side of history. Its not politics; its good vs evil and we need to wake the fuck up. Bluesky is reacting exactly like you would"
X Link 2025-09-10T20:34Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements
"$CRON $OGI $MSOS π To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open. New media post from Donald J. Trump https://t.co/B2g3Uc4xfT New media post from Donald J. Trump https://t.co/B2g3Uc4xfT"
X Link 2025-09-29T10:32Z [----] followers, 25.8K engagements
"Everyones way too levered lmao"
X Link 2025-10-10T20:58Z [----] followers, 43K engagements
"Often asked about how I pivoted careers so suddenly and cant stress how much of the battle is simply following your interests and reading everything in sight. From there you obviously need to take action but that piece is often easier than we think (just grow a pair). Were all indeed just winging it. This is obviously comical to cite in hindsight. But the only way I who've had half a dozen lives/careers by now broke into anything new is.reading 20-30 books on it. You can indeed just do things. Most people are less competent than they seem. Everyone is winging it. This is obviously comical to"
X Link 2025-10-12T12:39Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements
"Long $SNAP in size below $8. Patten recognition or idiocy One of my best investments was a 10% position in $SPOT in Dec [----] with the stock at an all time low of $75/share. The product was always lauded - great brand sticky subs 500m MAUs despite competing against the best companies in the history of capitalism. Yet the market hated the stock: "the labels will capture all the value" "they'll never make a profit" "SBC is egregious" etc. The stock traded 2x sales as a result. Fast forward [---] years and the stock has 10xd. What did the market miss - SPOT had prioritized growth/scale over"
X Link 2025-10-21T16:10Z [----] followers, 51.6K engagements
"An incredible phenomenon is that Wall Street often punishes companies led by superstar founders/CEOs and consequently their stock prices in the early years for precisely the behavior that makes them great managers: i.e. their focus on maximizing the long-term value of the enterprise at the expense of profits today. The opportunity for those investors astute enough to likewise look far enough ahead is that the market occasionally gives you the opportunity to ride the coattails of generational talents at an absurd entry price. Nothing really changes https://t.co/ScaOZkcpnm Nothing really"
X Link 2025-10-26T16:03Z [----] followers, 46.7K engagements
"$RIG agree wholly. Absent macro risk I think the path is pretty clear to utilization getting very tight into [--] and day rates inflecting accordingly. Market should start to price that in as we go into [--]. The debt is increasingly an asset at this point. Need for sourcing incremental barrels offshore becomes a big theme in the coming years imo. Long the basically the whole sector. $NE $VAL $SDRL $NOL.OL $TDW 1/7 Holy moly that $rig call was bullish. Some notes: contract award rate went [--] [--] [--] rig-years through the year. Q4 expected to do [--] rig-years. $ne $val 1/7 Holy moly that $rig call"
X Link 2025-10-30T15:12Z [----] followers, 29.6K engagements
"Perhaps my most contrarian take right now is that within the next decade or so the West will see a major resurgence of family values and the ushering in of a new baby boom"
X Link 2025-10-31T18:26Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements
"$EVC is just insanely cheap. EV at $2 is $300m. Ad-tech segment/Smadex revenue +104% and EBIT +378% YoY (38% and 91% sequentially). Running at $40m of EBTIDA and growing triple digits. At an extremely conservative 10x EBITDA that segment is alone worth $400m. You also get [--] tv stations and [--] radio stations that print money in election years and embedded spectrum value thrown in. Hard to imagine Smadex not getting separated to unlock the hidden value. 10% dividend yield to wait"
X Link 2025-11-04T21:43Z [----] followers, 33.9K engagements
"$EVC top holding now. This price makes absolutely no sense to me. 7.5% dividend to own an adtech segment with a venture capital growth rate and a media segment that likely generates record profits next year given the political climate going into midterms. And both segments alone are probably worth more than the EV. $EVC is just insanely cheap. EV at $2 is $300m. Ad-tech segment/Smadex revenue +104% and EBIT +378% YoY (38% and 91% sequentially). Running at $40m of EBTIDA and growing triple digits. At an extremely conservative 10x EBITDA that segment is alone worth $400m. You also get $EVC is"
X Link 2025-11-06T17:03Z [----] followers, 24.9K engagements
"Surprising at first glance that $TDW bought back no shares in Q3 after the long awaited refi and $500m authorization. They maxed out their limited capacity in prior Qs and now suddenly stopped altogether with +$400m of cash and the liberty to finally go big If you take mgmt at their word then unless something radically changed in a couple months it's hard not to conclude that they're gearing up for an acquisition: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988058390371684601 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988058390371684601"
X Link 2025-11-11T01:37Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements
"Another great interview with Hohn. "Very few things matter and most things don't matter at all" "What does matter in investing Competition/barriers to entry and long-termism" In other words: People want you have and you can sustainably provide it without meaningful competition/disruption risk. Econ [---]. As with most fields almost all the insight comes from mastery of [---] principles and the rest is all of rather marginal utility and liable to detract from what matters. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=wPNs8DZ0FvE&t=1824s New Chris Hohn interview getting well-deserved buzz on here. What's always"
X Link 2025-11-17T17:07Z [----] followers, 148.3K engagements
"Would frankly be shocked to not get a new partnership announcement in the next quarter"
X Link 2025-12-29T21:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Im looking at you $mcs"
X Link 2025-12-29T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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