# ![@probaaron Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272.png) @probaaron aaron

aaron posts on X about polymarket, kalshi, prediction markets, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +88%
- [--] Month [-------] +121%
- [--] Months [---------] +26,971%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -17%
- [--] Month [---] +28%
- [--] Months [---] +3,796%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +3.30%
- [--] Month [-----] +9%
- [--] Months [-----] +1,052%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  19.71% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  7.3% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  6.57% [stocks](/list/stocks)  3.65% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  3.65% [musicians](/list/musicians)  3.65% [countries](/list/countries)  1.46% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1.46% [events](/list/events)  0.73% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.73%

**Social topic influence**
[polymarket](/topic/polymarket) #493, [kalshi](/topic/kalshi) #934, [prediction markets](/topic/prediction-markets) #604, [in the](/topic/in-the) 5.84%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 5.84%, [market](/topic/market) 5.84%, [fed chair](/topic/fed-chair) #16, [judy shelton](/topic/judy-shelton) #9, [crypto](/topic/crypto) 4.38%, [ai](/topic/ai) 3.65%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@polymarket](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@pmtraderadam](/creator/undefined) [@polymarkettrade](/creator/undefined) [@andrewcourt1](/creator/undefined) [@judyshel](/creator/undefined) [@eventwavesio](/creator/undefined) [@kalshinomics](/creator/undefined) [@0xtakeprofits](/creator/undefined) [@ishaan0x](/creator/undefined) [@bojackcapital](/creator/undefined) [@dustingouker](/creator/undefined) [@zb6nyz9zzk](/creator/undefined) [@polymarketsuc](/creator/undefined) [@xrpnoahh](/creator/undefined) [@thestalwart](/creator/undefined) [@bernardbulletin](/creator/undefined) [@raychi_god](/creator/undefined) [@lowkey_4him](/creator/undefined) [@0xtyrael](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Robinhood Markets, Inc.  (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Solana (SOL)](/topic/solana) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Aster (ASTER)](/topic/$aster)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"oh no. well at least we get more Warsh bonds sub 95c 🤷♂ https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020856318509076781 derivative markets in prediction markets can get dangerous when its cheap to move the underlying market why buy Yes in a meme market like Jesus Christ returning well it can be profitable to just push the odds above 5% and win the trade https://t.co/s7guSyPXzS https://t.co/GpmPl2r56r https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020856318509076781 derivative markets in prediction markets can get dangerous when its cheap to move the underlying market why buy Yes in a meme market like Jesus Christ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021709850623750544)  2026-02-11T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019805528273166529 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019805528273166529"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529)  2026-02-06T16:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"started my X a year ago. chatted with some guys at an ETHDenver happy hour about how I was interested in the data / news layer around prediction markets between trading building tools and content - it's been a fun ride. looking forward to year two 🫡 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1902763590572184054 Hey everyone Im jumping into prediction markets and building some badass tools in public Kicking things off with platforms like Polymarket Im crafting dashboards and data analytic tools. Got any special requests or killer features youd love to see Drop them below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022000749375594939)  2026-02-12T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Alex Honnold will crush today's climb my risk tolerance used to be higher. [--] years ago https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2014810940173136182 BREAKING: Alex Honnold now projected to free solo Taipei [---] in 1h 45m today. https://t.co/Akj2wkydkE https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2014810940173136182 BREAKING: Alex Honnold now projected to free solo Taipei [---] in 1h 45m today. https://t.co/Akj2wkydkE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2014853431597351328)  2026-01-24T00:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"this is a cool market but it needs more volume and liquidity to be a real signal but let's assume current prices are fair value (which is a reach) implied odds of rates =2.5% (if appointed): 🔹 Christopher Waller: 50.0% 🕊 🔹 Rick Rieder: 45.9% 🔹 Kevin Warsh: 30.4% 🦅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2015876126791368876)  2026-01-26T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"on average Government Shutdown NO holders are more profitable than YES holders on Polymarket via @SynthesisTrade despite this the top YES holder has a disproportionate higher total pnl (+$66k) than top NO holders hard to leave the computer while this continues to play out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2016921806146359518)  2026-01-29T17:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Polymarket vs Kalshi shutdown market incentives: 🔵Polymarket is offering $900 total across [--] markets for liquidity 🟢Kalshi is offering $100/market across [--] markets based on volume Volume: Poly $7.8m vs Kalshi $6.4m - incentives are driving early liquidity and price discovery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018004751816835293)  2026-02-01T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@0xTakeProfits @eightyhi @Kalshi not sure we're quite optimized for the database your looking for but happy to discuss further this guy shared his github code as well if curious: https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018470963172749340)  2026-02-02T23:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Kalshi: "Heres $50 go shopping" Polymarket: "Hold my beer were opening the store""  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018757518508634368)  2026-02-03T18:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@skupor @USOPM you've become famous in prediction market land now Scott"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018827578308735464)  2026-02-03T23:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DustinGouker Dustin's friends with Kalshi badge: -1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018841129274462326)  2026-02-04T00:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@judyshel remains the 50-100x long-shot that keeps getting traded on Kalshi and Polymarket for Fed Chair https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2018839161105416683 Top [--] Kalshi markets by Open Interest Judy Shelton at #3 🤯 https://t.co/sv2FobQkw9 https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2018839161105416683 Top [--] Kalshi markets by Open Interest Judy Shelton at #3 🤯 https://t.co/sv2FobQkw9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018843213281566876)  2026-02-04T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"on my way to 'The Polymarket' NYs first free grocery store https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018757518508634368 Kalshi: "Heres $50 go shopping" Polymarket: "Hold my beer were opening the store" https://t.co/gsyh4zfyYh https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018757518508634368 Kalshi: "Heres $50 go shopping" Polymarket: "Hold my beer were opening the store" https://t.co/gsyh4zfyYh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018886246148292863)  2026-02-04T03:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"fair value for Zyn getting advertised during the Super Bowl 0.3% about [--] in [---] nicotine/tobacco brands are generally blocked from super bowl ad slots and only a clear in-broadcast branded spot counts edge case: last-minute policy exception or qualifying branded integration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019125442146628078)  2026-02-04T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"wow. over 200k Kevin Warsh 'bonds' are now available to take at 97c https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018843213281566876 @judyshel remains the 50-100x long-shot that keeps getting traded on Kalshi and Polymarket for Fed Chair https://t.co/FHOKbVyl4A https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018843213281566876 @judyshel remains the 50-100x long-shot that keeps getting traded on Kalshi and Polymarket for Fed Chair https://t.co/FHOKbVyl4A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019174881695535285)  2026-02-04T22:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Nostroah @Kalshi @KalshiTrade confirmed https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019125442146628078 fair value for Zyn getting advertised during the Super Bowl 0.3% about [--] in [---] nicotine/tobacco brands are generally blocked from super bowl ad slots and only a clear in-broadcast branded spot counts edge case: last-minute policy exception or qualifying branded integration https://t.co/eIEMeXk0cE https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019125442146628078 fair value for Zyn getting advertised during the Super Bowl 0.3% about [--] in [---] nicotine/tobacco brands are generally blocked from super bowl ad slots and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019201987821306191)  2026-02-05T00:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"stock down crypto down only thing green on my screen is my Kalshi port https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019516400872878505 this has aged well already 😅 🩸 in the streets bought $AMZN at [---] 🙏 https://t.co/YDkAmMINvI https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019516400872878505 this has aged well already 😅 🩸 in the streets bought $AMZN at [---] 🙏 https://t.co/YDkAmMINvI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019525805106442358)  2026-02-05T21:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@catboyautist I think your ROI is better on Kalshi tbh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019538906149183791)  2026-02-05T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@0xTyrael great to see robinhood may be just one of many new inflows now landlords facebook marketplace sellers and drug dealers can instantly punt their sales transactions 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019617710783533235)  2026-02-06T03:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@MEPPonPM @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade yes do it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019618195343032573)  2026-02-06T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@GaetenD woah it traded as high as 87c potential insiders or dumb money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019620230243537275)  2026-02-06T03:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@sol_nxxn @solana @Polymarket it's interesting that the FDV is in the ballpark of their last funding round valuation I'm incredibly bullish but token utility generally private equity value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019850753419231235)  2026-02-06T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Google was trading at 91% for top AI model this month before Claude Opus [---] dropped - now sitting near 22% wild how fast these AI leaderboards reprice when a new model ships https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2019496582698397945 New Engineering blog: We tasked Opus [---] using agent teams to build a C compiler. Then we (mostly) walked away. Two weeks later it worked on the Linux kernel. Here's what it taught us about the future of autonomous software development. Read more: https://t.co/htX0wl4wIf https://t.co/N2e9t5Z6Rm https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2019496582698397945 New Engineering blog:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020163384864292992)  2026-02-07T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Polymarket @PolymarketTrade smart $ has been trading Anthropic all along one trader scooped 12k shares at 6.89c avg https://synthesis.traderef=aaron https://synthesis.traderef=aaron"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020166393262448891)  2026-02-07T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Polymarket takes a large lead in volume on the next shutdown market after adding $300/day in liquidity incentives 🔵 $617k Polymarket 🟢 $43k Kalshi @Kalshi any chance we get liquidity or volume incentives here to help improve market quality https://x.com/probaaron/status/2017274277431595127 BREAKING: US Government shutdown odds are hovering around 85% while Kalshi has taken the lead in total trading volume 👇 Kalshi: $34m volume Polymarket: $31.5m volume https://t.co/THgbQvGUTY https://x.com/probaaron/status/2017274277431595127 BREAKING: US Government shutdown odds are hovering around 85%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020172005824426183)  2026-02-07T16:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EventWavesIO IMO Kalshi / CFTC should investigate and prosecute if determined insider trader"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020193066905174016)  2026-02-07T17:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket banger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020335182658826438)  2026-02-08T03:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AlexH_Johnson but. emotional hedging helps us get ahead Alex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020336104864436702)  2026-02-08T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Chilearmy123 Taylor Swift destroys the ozone and your bags 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020622682916823312)  2026-02-08T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@zb6nyz9zzk @NathanMeininger fair point but Nate is specifically referring to a CFTC regulated exchange and I still find it unlikely that traders who lost money to insiders will be reimbursed whatsoever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020891997310263551)  2026-02-09T16:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"US strikes Iran by. [--] Cumulative Prob: the market is pricing a 25.5% chance of a strike by Feb [--] climbing to 55% thru June [--] Hazard Rate: risk intensity isn't uniform. daily probability spikes to 2.0% between Feb [----] then craters to just 0.13% per day through spring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955233472692493)  2026-02-09T20:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$206M in volume and climbing here's the live market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-227-967-547-688-589-491-592-418-452-924-384-915-464-672-196-157-993-596-269-535-381-391-471via=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-227-967-547-688-589-491-592-418-452-924-384-915-464-672-196-157-993-596-269-535-381-391-471via=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955236748361789)  2026-02-09T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GunjanJS @KevinTDugan @WSJmarkets good read bring on more prediction market stories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021004509804363981)  2026-02-09T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@feararbith @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade I'll start with caveat that I don't know this topic very well but: 1) US seems to be threatening potential strikes if breakthroughs don't come from talks 2) one trader bought a ton of shares for today and now holds 4M in total. potential insider I don't think so personally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021016113656783217)  2026-02-10T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pizzintwatch upcoming Iran strike https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955233472692493 US strikes Iran by. [--] Cumulative Prob: the market is pricing a 25.5% chance of a strike by Feb [--] climbing to 55% thru June [--] Hazard Rate: risk intensity isn't uniform. daily probability spikes to 2.0% between Feb [----] then craters to just 0.13% per day through spring https://t.co/V9uFU9IkrX https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955233472692493 US strikes Iran by. [--] Cumulative Prob: the market is pricing a 25.5% chance of a strike by Feb [--] climbing to 55% thru June [--] Hazard Rate: risk intensity isn't uniform."  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021020033015857313)  2026-02-10T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket well played Adam but wen airdrop https://x.com/PMTraderAdam/status/2020315700074803626 I traveled all the way to Seattle to ask @Polymarket a very important question https://t.co/17QZRs922y https://x.com/PMTraderAdam/status/2020315700074803626 I traveled all the way to Seattle to ask @Polymarket a very important question https://t.co/17QZRs922y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021037324491194414)  2026-02-10T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"wisdom of the crowds - I'd put fair value odds of insider trading on Lady Gaga performing around 80% theres a small chance it wasnt but given how many people wouldve had advance knowledge Id bet it was https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020674857940214058 Lady Gaga performs in the halftime show with Bad Bunny as projected. Is this https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020674857940214058 Lady Gaga performs in the halftime show with Bad Bunny as projected. Is this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021042369882357901)  2026-02-10T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Vape to earn. in this market 💀💀 Puffpaw FDV looks incredibly sus new wallets are buying Yes shares across every strike - a blatant attempt to manipulate the expected FDV every top Yes holder is a losing trader while every top No holder is a winner https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021116841419231590 https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021116841419231590"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021259978686742879)  2026-02-10T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"here's the Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/puffpaw-fdv-above-200m-one-day-after-launchref=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/puffpaw-fdv-above-200m-one-day-after-launchref=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021259982268723356)  2026-02-10T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The Business of Risk: Insurance vs Prediction Markets Insurance is one of the oldest financial products around. At its core it pools risk smooths out volatility and makes sure no single event ruins someones life or balance sheet. But once you work http://x.com/i/article/1966998632772890628 http://x.com/i/article/1966998632772890628"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967006720347304158)  2025-09-13T23:25Z [----] followers, 35.7K engagements


"the look I get when I share @kalshinomics with my normie friends 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968448339172643158)  2025-09-17T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"updated seat assignments are now available ✈ onboarding window open - confirm your seat now or risk getting priced out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969794771536449915)  2025-09-21T16:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"so far Im in for: -Tylenol Y @ 25c -Trade/Trading Y @ 79c -Kalshi N @ 83c -Labubu N @ 83c not as much size as my Kimmel plays last night but wanted some skin in the game what you got https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/1970938436384325883 South Park tonight: Which mentions are people betting on Which markets are tight enough to trade Is this what all the money and time at college was for Easy filter at Kalshinomics https://t.co/Db9KFXbqSI https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/1970938436384325883 South Park tonight: Which mentions are people betting on Which markets are tight enough to trade Is this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970958344354660667)  2025-09-24T21:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WhiteHouse tariff revenue only trending down and now we're going to cut $2k checks from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988710774018125959)  2025-11-12T20:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"oh the Polymarket comment section. the most vocal parties are almost always wrong every top commenter here is mass long Judy Shelton with 15k-60k positions https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently sitting at 38% resolution: over 5% for a majority of minutes in any 1h period before Friday https://t.co/q4CnbPZczZ https://t.co/gAl0qv9mRW https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022090093817901553)  2026-02-12T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@mrjuliusrose @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel the people most vocal are holding the 4c Judy Shelton shares Kevin Warsh nomination fair value is well over 99% imo despite being priced at 95%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022093992603922672)  2026-02-12T23:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EventWavesIO @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel lol would love to see that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022094071674876085)  2026-02-12T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"its wild that @MyriadMarkets has $ASTER priced at 39.7% to 2x in a month at a $2 price thats $1.59 of yes value baked in (39.7% $4) which means if it doesnt hit $4 the implied fair value is only $0.41"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1970617869970047227)  2025-09-23T22:34Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements


"the changing world order @RayDalio has had some excellent points on this reserve currency strength cheap borrowing asset bubbles social stress geopolitical tension were mid-cycle watching the stress cracks form in real time https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2017993360040923583 JUST IN: President Xi Jinping calls for the Chinese yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/thWbkQdM2m https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2017993360040923583 JUST IN: President Xi Jinping calls for the Chinese yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/thWbkQdM2m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018013944116371531)  2026-02-01T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Anthropics market hit $10.5M volume - more than the other [--] ad markets combined vague rules are the perfect trap to pump volume millions in retail incineration via a rule cuck while the house takes $125k in fees the "Mis-Anthropic" world by Domer 👇 https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/2019915361701785642 The Mis-Anthropic World. A shocking discovery but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own. In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature scientists have https://t.co/yOW8DjE9Sh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019929182386397552)  2026-02-07T00:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"we covered this and @LoganPredicts play in the Anthropic market on the latest episode of Small Dog Trading 📍 42:40 https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019929958009778294)  2026-02-07T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Government Shutdown volume update: 🔵 $1.34m Polymarket 🟢 $579k Kalshi incentives work Kalshi going from 6.5% to 30% of total shutdown volume between exchanges https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020172005824426183 Polymarket takes a large lead in volume on the next shutdown market after adding $300/day in liquidity incentives 🔵 $617k Polymarket 🟢 $43k Kalshi @Kalshi any chance we get liquidity or volume incentives here to help improve market quality https://t.co/RvlDG2CRxK https://t.co/zt75F5Ljds https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020172005824426183 Polymarket takes a large lead in volume on the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021276466730746276)  2026-02-10T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ishaan0x @Polymarket @Kalshi @MovieTimeDev Kalshi's moat is regulatory not product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021367878361154021)  2026-02-10T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@corgil @Polymarket I did the Corgi vibe 😏 https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021368415462752329)  2026-02-10T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@outcomenoble @Polymarket I dig it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021418692240867466)  2026-02-11T02:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Polymarket just dropped a new dark mode and a "Hide Sports / Hide Crypto" toggle to clean up your feed trading on Kalshi @Kalshinomics offers similar features to cut the noise streamline market discovery and keep you focused on your niche"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021420424547254514)  2026-02-11T03:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@polymarketsuc @Kalshinomics I work on Kalshinomics (including Kalshi + Polymarket data)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021422342568804755)  2026-02-11T03:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ishaan0x @Polymarket @Kalshi @MovieTimeDev I'd love to see it either their own or integrated into an existing exchange"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021444551161020707)  2026-02-11T04:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"check it: https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1770862200via=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1770862200via=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021773708709265599)  2026-02-12T02:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BoJackCapital @andrewcourt1 appreciate that even over Opus 4.6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021779827469009057)  2026-02-12T02:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@andrewcourt1 alright finally taking the plunge and paying for Claude adding to ChatGPT Cursor Gemini and Grok - sounds like a lot but experimenting with these tools has been extremely valuable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021780554333499802)  2026-02-12T02:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@dippy_eth probably at least while it's still novel crypto degens need to get their dopamine hit after all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021782816191570017)  2026-02-12T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@derekbrown good points wrapping entertainment betting in "price discovery" language doesn't make it a hedging instrument"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021988916321235162)  2026-02-12T16:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket going to hold you to it lfg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022007480700875005)  2026-02-12T17:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Top [--] Judy Shelton holders have almost 5m total shares pumping her price for Fed Chair up to 3.5c on @Polymarket https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2018839161105416683 Top [--] Kalshi markets by Open Interest Judy Shelton at #3 🤯 https://t.co/sv2FobQkw9 https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2018839161105416683 Top [--] Kalshi markets by Open Interest Judy Shelton at #3 🤯 https://t.co/sv2FobQkw9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019628570692206624)  2026-02-06T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade changes nothing about resolution imo this just gives us cheaper shares if you still have dry powder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022002593548128642)  2026-02-12T17:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@XRPNoahh @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel maybe but I'm willing to bet otherwise here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022099017963049100)  2026-02-13T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @bl888m_eth @Polymarket @judyshel @PolymarketTrade more like 40%+ APY annualized (depending on when this gets resolved)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021632462275719625)  2026-02-11T17:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"54 people listed in the Who will perform at the Big Game market of the $47.3M total traded 44.4% ($21M) was concentrated on Cardi B alone generating hundreds of thousands in fees with the bulk of the volume pouring in while she was "performing" live https://x.com/YahooSports/status/2021568132649816418 https://x.com/YahooSports/status/2021568132649816418"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021604560423256484)  2026-02-11T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"5 minute crypto up/down markets are now live on Polymarket including Rewards and Maker Rebates how soon until these markets are 90%+ algorithmic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021771448134906139)  2026-02-12T02:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"here's the derivative market: https://polymarket.com/event/judy-shelton-fed-chair-nomination-odds-5-by-fridayvia=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/judy-shelton-fed-chair-nomination-odds-5-by-fridayvia=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986444999614560)  2026-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket killing it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022000959732551916)  2026-02-12T17:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@notyrjo @Polymarket @PolymarketBuild see you there RJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022008376822231126)  2026-02-12T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@moonpay Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently sitting at 38% resolution: over 5% for a majority of minutes in any 1h period before Friday https://t.co/q4CnbPZczZ https://t.co/gAl0qv9mRW https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022093216515076341)  2026-02-12T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheStalwart @MichaelSelig @tracyalloway starting my day here 💙 for Odd Lots 🤝 prediction markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021943765901164551)  2026-02-12T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently sitting at 38% resolution: over 5% for a majority of minutes in any 1h period before Friday https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021709850623750544 oh no. well at least we get more Warsh bonds sub 95c 🤷♂ https://t.co/7sAjf6DPwd https://t.co/ZWpVAR3cyb https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021709850623750544 oh no. well at least we get more Warsh bonds sub 95c 🤷♂ https://t.co/7sAjf6DPwd https://t.co/ZWpVAR3cyb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716)  2026-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@bernardbulletin @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel wdym - what are they rigging if it's the actual nominee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022341070961680606)  2026-02-13T16:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheStalwart agree - vibe coding Geopolitical Strike Risk market data today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022454141256372593)  2026-02-13T23:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"my quant calls it a dead cat bounce I call it hope"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976367830233956677)  2025-10-09T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi was there ever a real third candidate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1980299944159539474)  2025-10-20T15:47Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements


"interesting one: Louvre jewel thieves case trading near even odds for charges before December Kalshis also incentivizing liquidity and volume here so expect more action worth being careful with limit orders - this kind of market can rip on a single headline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1980336884493742278)  2025-10-20T18:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"prediction markets once again front-running tech headlines OpenAI web browser odds near 90% - traders piling in ahead of a possible year-end reveal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1980649767891075394)  2025-10-21T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@nursexxl @Kalshi @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @KalshiEco whoever spins up the market on your badge first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1981026458395890079)  2025-10-22T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"comfy holding spot BTC covered with hit $150k hedges over @Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981041739088408921)  2025-10-22T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@FinnMurphy12 Shayne isn't courtside trading lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1981357874681876709)  2025-10-23T13:51Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements


"@FerreWeb3 who tf is opening up OpenSea first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981386179862765880)  2025-10-23T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi will Trump move any Bitcoin by [----] 12%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981805558492803427)  2025-10-24T19:30Z [----] followers, 17.5K engagements


"@DegenerateNews imagine getting liquidated on a $HYPE short above $90 😬 more perp dexes = more random wicks all over the place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1982924203667140760)  2025-10-27T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@0xNairolf and there are prediction markets on the winners of the 1v1 prediction market battles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1983156075202519122)  2025-10-28T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BillAckman @ZohranKMamdani curious is $2M to move the price just a few cents "a small amount of capital""  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1983264091096658278)  2025-10-28T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I traded yes on Zohran Mamdani at [--] Kalshi had the better price vs Polymarket by [--] at the time so is this basically a discount bond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983355054523605467)  2025-10-29T02:07Z [----] followers, 48.9K engagements


"@0xTyrael lol this was bound to happen sooner or later glad coinbase made the move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1984039423412203558)  2025-10-30T23:27Z [----] followers, 116.6K engagements


"I traded Yes on Bad Bunny as Top Spotify artist this year feels like Swifties are giving away free lunch money at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985018027528921232)  2025-11-02T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"how much does it cost to move the nyc mayoral market if you tried to push cuomos odds higher to 20% polymarket buy cuomo yes to [--] $78k buy mamdani no $567k kalshi buy cuomo yes $381k buy mamdani no $1.19m total: about $2.22m in combined order book depth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985464262136074539)  2025-11-03T21:49Z [----] followers, 148.3K engagements


"@greg16676935420 dude I feel you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1985555759128809875)  2025-11-04T03:52Z [----] followers, 31.6K engagements


"all eyes on prediction markets tonight https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1985721338942644720t=_UKXm6SaT9y_SogBRV41_A&s=19 For the fate of NYC https://t.co/kzU0UPsiya https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1985721338942644720t=_UKXm6SaT9y_SogBRV41_A&s=19 For the fate of NYC https://t.co/kzU0UPsiya"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985797925742751907)  2025-11-04T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi same. with a far smaller bag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985908671042535621)  2025-11-05T03:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CurtisSliwa ty ser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1985922798934745331)  2025-11-05T04:11Z [----] followers, 24.1K engagements


"@matthewwwlevine @CurtisSliwa yep not much of a risk for a 1.4% gain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1985932107085210013)  2025-11-05T04:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital odds way down today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1986117769876881740)  2025-11-05T17:05Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements


"@rawsalerts c'mon she isn't even on the prediction markets yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1986188209362247862)  2025-11-05T21:45Z [----] followers, 18.7K engagements


"a good read on the illusion of safe trades or "bonds" in prediction markets winning often doesnt mean winning smart https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/1986193929134330093 Lots of talk about "bonding" prediction markets lately. The idea: buy contracts 80%+ collect steady returns like a bond. Is this just betting favorites Recent evidence points no - this may work. But when selling tails winning often doesn't mean you have edge. https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/1986193929134330093 Lots of talk about "bonding" prediction markets lately. The idea: buy contracts 80%+ collect steady returns like a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986274750117912657)  2025-11-06T03:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"new gta VI date: nov [--] [----] kalshi now at 79% for before [----] markets still leaving room for this to slip again https://x.com/RockstarGames/status/1986540361011880167 Hi everyone Grand Theft Auto VI will now release on Thursday November [--] [----]. We are sorry for adding additional time to what we realize has been a long wait but these extra months will allow us to finish the game with the level of polish you have come to expect and https://t.co/yLX9KIiDzX https://x.com/RockstarGames/status/1986540361011880167 Hi everyone Grand Theft Auto VI will now release on Thursday November [--] [----]. We"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986548154452615521)  2025-11-06T21:36Z [----] followers, 136.7K engagements


"made it onto Bankless im basically all-in on prediction markets now but the weekly rollup is what pulled me into ethereum in the first place. cheers guys https://x.com/Bankless/status/1986780682123714740 LIVE NOW -- Bull Market or Fakeout Top Haseebs Crypto Cycle Take Is the crypto bull market really over or just pausing while AI takes the spotlight On this weeks Weekly Rollup @RyanSAdams and guest co-host @hosseeb break down Bitcoins 10/10 crash hidden leverage and the https://t.co/V8xVMKWo8T https://x.com/Bankless/status/1986780682123714740 LIVE NOW -- Bull Market or Fakeout Top Haseebs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1986810196992364777)  2025-11-07T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Melt_Dem open interest speaks louder than volume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1986848287807447210)  2025-11-07T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"happy to cash all of these today whats next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986871060823003350)  2025-11-07T18:59Z [----] followers, 37.6K engagements


"dont usually mess with sports but wanted a little skin in the game today on Indiana at Penn St found a tiny gap where kalshi was a couple cents cheaper than polymarket on the same side + odds felt close enough to true so i just hit it nice little payout back to politics/econ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987288175497388365)  2025-11-08T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital this is [----] so itll fall under predictions on kalshi + polymarket ✅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987543447281320089)  2025-11-09T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QuintenFrancois why not save some time and just handout [----] BTC each"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987549249488433255)  2025-11-09T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"indianapolis colts over atlanta today this kalshi chart kinda says it all - insane swings absolute chaos of a game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987579398036545905)  2025-11-09T17:53Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements


"bullish on Thriller to enter the Top [--] on The Billboard Hot [---] Chart seems like a bond unless I'm missing something https://x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1987731849905414522s=46 Michael Jacksons Thriller is expected to return to the top [--] of the Billboard Hot [---] following Halloween. It will mark the songs first time in the top [--] since [----]. 3K sales 14M streams 9M airplay https://t.co/bKNM38kqSm https://x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1987731849905414522s=46 Michael Jacksons Thriller is expected to return to the top [--] of the Billboard Hot [---] following Halloween. It will mark the songs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987734212104052846)  2025-11-10T04:09Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements


"What U.S. airline will be the first to sell Zyn on their flights + earn rewards as a liquidity provider on Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987958470126301310)  2025-11-10T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1 day bond at 8% return https://x.com/PopCrave/status/1987961276979384608 Thriller by Michael Jackson returns to the top [--] on the Hot [---] at #10 this week. It previously peaked at #4. https://t.co/g8Jr16lGSg https://x.com/PopCrave/status/1987961276979384608 Thriller by Michael Jackson returns to the top [--] on the Hot [---] at #10 this week. It previously peaked at #4. https://t.co/g8Jr16lGSg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987962910958854206)  2025-11-10T19:17Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements


"@Polymarket does she trade stocks too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988007303866708026)  2025-11-10T22:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"sports are now my top category thanks to MJ 🥳 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987962910958854206 [--] day bond at 8% return https://t.co/l5nJMSoRx8 https://t.co/UAap1xM723 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987962910958854206 [--] day bond at 8% return https://t.co/l5nJMSoRx8 https://t.co/UAap1xM723"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988092968046342183)  2025-11-11T03:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"highly doubt tariff stimulus checks happen this year - if it all bonded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988618795347505308)  2025-11-12T14:44Z [----] followers, 35K engagements


"the government is opening back up - and now theyre getting to the real questions 📈 71% chance the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files this year 💰 $500 Kalshi liquidity rewards pool active through Nov 30"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988751105086615943)  2025-11-12T23:29Z [----] followers, 225.3K engagements


"@Kalshi $72.7M volume in this market alone (+ plenty of other shutdown related markets) well done predictoors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988811883873464462)  2025-11-13T03:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CalltoActivism looking like the Houses gonna pass the bill to release the files https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988751105086615943 the government is opening back up - and now theyre getting to the real questions 📈 71% chance the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files this year 💰 $500 Kalshi liquidity rewards pool active through Nov [--] https://t.co/Kifny8mUBt https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988751105086615943 the government is opening back up - and now theyre getting to the real questions 📈 71% chance the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files this year 💰 $500 Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988823525067796841)  2025-11-13T04:17Z [----] followers, 158.7K engagements


"didn't see this one coming 🔥 congrats @kalshi 🤝 @PrizePicks https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1989317639374565621t=CyleTjFpNZ6Y7BpC_UDMTQ&s=19 Trade prediction markets on @PrizePicks Sports. Movies. Music. Politics. Economics. And so much more are now live. All event contracts listed on PrizePicks are Kalshi markets. https://t.co/azleTUIFit https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1989317639374565621t=CyleTjFpNZ6Y7BpC_UDMTQ&s=19 Trade prediction markets on @PrizePicks Sports. Movies. Music. Politics. Economics. And so much more are now live. All event contracts listed on PrizePicks are Kalshi markets."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989318957954715780)  2025-11-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"hit 2k follows today appreciate everyone whos been following the prediction market grind follow along for more data edge chaos coming soon https://x.com/probaaron/status/1976367830233956677 my quant calls it a dead cat bounce I call it hope https://t.co/247ePx4q65 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1976367830233956677 my quant calls it a dead cat bounce I call it hope https://t.co/247ePx4q65"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989339715200602204)  2025-11-14T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge 91% chance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1989496009379172576)  2025-11-15T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"this just keeps drifting into straight-up bond territory Gemini [---] incoming https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1989481514393121239 🤔🤔 https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1989481514393121239 🤔🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989708178494484624)  2025-11-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EventWavesIO potential arb haven't reviewed terms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2015163620041048475)  2026-01-24T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@tbpn really hope you guys dont skimp out on the hard questions will Zuck smoke meats live on air"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1968362313859379695)  2025-09-17T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"nothing's budging JD Vance's odds not even a wild south park plot #1 contender for [----] US Presidential Election 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1972136360090996922)  2025-09-28T03:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@InternAtKalshi @Kalshinomics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1986520388118192331)  2025-11-06T19:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"gov shutdown days got slashed hard today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987677405729939648)  2025-11-10T00:23Z [----] followers, 36K engagements


"One of my favorite ways to use @Kalshinomics apply Min OI + Min filters + Hide Sports Instantly surfaces big news shifts in past 24H: Bad Bunny +50% odds for halftime show Gov shutdown odds down Waymo likely in more cities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972286972447363239)  2025-09-28T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"BREAKING: Trump Pardons CZ Whose next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1981380474540085651)  2025-10-23T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"hundreds of millions in longs got liquidated as crypto takes a hit this chart shows how traders are pricing ethereum crossing various year-end thresholds 4060% odds it crosses the low 3ks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1985426442621239597)  2025-11-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"NYC Mayoral Election night - prediction markets already pricing it like its over Mamdanis at 94.5% on Polymarket and 92.5% on Kalshi though both resolve the same way late polls say the same thing - a clear double-digit lead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1985824354584969503)  2025-11-04T21:39Z [----] followers, 20.5K engagements


"btc trading around $104k chart shows how traders are pricing bitcoins odds of crossing key levels by year-end roughly 33% chance it breaks below $90k (-13%) and 28% chance it crosses above $130k (+25%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1986164763567792213)  2025-11-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The Prediction Market Economy Intro Prediction markets arent just for traders. A full ecosystem is forming around them - trading building content and connections. Each path has its own edge and the overlap between them is http://x.com/i/article/1988662675497447426 http://x.com/i/article/1988662675497447426"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988667044364185609)  2025-11-12T17:55Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements


"BTC at $98.3k heres how the markets pricing bitcoins odds of crossing key levels by year-end (using BID/ASK midpoints) interesting symmetry - the chance of $80k (-19%) is almost the same as $140k (+42%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1989048246820593868)  2025-11-13T19:10Z [----] followers, 13.5K engagements

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