# ![@microfounded Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1960345892231221249.png) @microfounded Ciaran Marshall

Ciaran Marshall posts on X about in the, ai, maga, united states the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1960345892231221249/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1960345892231221249/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---] -61%
- [--] Month [-----] +8.80%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1960345892231221249/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1960345892231221249/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -60%
- [--] Month [--] +35%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1960345892231221249/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1960345892231221249/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +1.40%
- [--] Month [---] +16%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1960345892231221249/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1960345892231221249/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [currencies](/list/currencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[in the](/topic/in-the), [ai](/topic/ai), [maga](/topic/maga), [united states](/topic/united-states), [countries](/topic/countries), [london](/topic/london), [if you](/topic/if-you), [growth](/topic/growth), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [relationships](/topic/relationships)

**Top assets mentioned**
[CVS Health Corp (CVS)](/topic/cvs)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"They blocked my card simply for moving address at the same time my passport was up for renewal. Hence I am debanked until I receive my new passport. As soon as I regain access I am switching from @HSBC_UK. Their customer service is atrocious. I really didnt want to do this. Ive been with @HSBC_UK for [--] years. But I just cant keep doing this with them. Not sure whats happened internally but the customer service has become so awful its actively traumatic to try and get anything sorted. Big sigh & time to switch. I really didnt want to do this. Ive been with @HSBC_UK for [--] years. But I just"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964304626724807049)  2025-09-06T12:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"MAGAnomics is literally based on a fallacy. So American Compass and the other MAGA think-tanks are rejecting basic economic principles. New right "intellectuals" are a combination of grifters sycophants and idiots that should be ostracised accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964334647115936109)  2025-09-06T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New post where I speculate on the future of C.B. independence in a world of high deficits and inflation. If our current fiscal trajectory continues be prepared for high inflation to be the new normal. https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/central-bank-independence-under-fiscalutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/central-bank-independence-under-fiscalutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964711092040663238)  2025-09-07T15:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The question is will operational independence remain or will it succumb to political pressure if non-Ricardian fiscal policy remains https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964711092040663238t=8eVu_uDCeQn0qoZSrjweqw&s=19 New post where I speculate on the future of C.B. independence in a world of high deficits and inflation. If our current fiscal trajectory continues be prepared for high inflation to be the new normal. https://t.co/KBwyvoQK9Q https://t.co/xMithDNIeP https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964711092040663238t=8eVu_uDCeQn0qoZSrjweqw&s=19 New post where I speculate on the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964711657839747170)  2025-09-07T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Fantastic news yet DOGE has squandered the possibility of eliminating AIDS. I'm against most state spending but I make an exception for some scientific initiatives and pharmaceutical interventions. Returns to scientific funding and basic R&D are high. https://p.dw.com/p/4wOdlmaca=en-Twitter-sharing https://p.dw.com/p/4wOdlmaca=en-Twitter-sharing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964745245662605725)  2025-09-07T17:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"If the private sector and philanthropy was a perfect substitute to government funding here there would already be an infrastructure set up to distribute lenacapavir to offset the cuts to USAID and public health agencies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964745248120373371)  2025-09-07T17:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp Many are writing books for self-promotion rather than efficient information aggregation. For the latter I much prefer blogs and the smarter voices on X"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1964791638582268253)  2025-09-07T20:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"An underrated reason as to why we should just stick to Pareto optimality rather than compute social-welfare functions. Optimal tax rates under the latter are highly sensitive to the parameters and elasticities used. "fat-tailed distributions imply positiveoften hightop marginal tax rates. But even vanishingly small misspecification concerns overturn this finding driving top marginal tax rates to zero" https://t.co/5T8UqsrAVz "fat-tailed distributions imply positiveoften hightop marginal tax rates. But even vanishingly small misspecification concerns overturn this finding driving top marginal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1965086235409715485)  2025-09-08T16:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I take the radical centrist view in that I don't care one bit about his feelings nor harbour any desire for angry retribution. I just want to do what works to eliminate the plague that is violent crime. Incarceration works better than alternatives regardless of emotions. Van Jones: The man who stabbed Iryna Zarutska was hurting hurt people hurt people. Sorry but this is bullshit. Would he talk like this about Derek Chauvin Of course not. This is just bullshit. Why would you talk like this about someone who just stabbed a random woman to https://t.co/sSRhqiLPKN Van Jones: The man who stabbed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1965708384201822376)  2025-09-10T09:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@cremieuxrecueil As much violent crime is committed under the influence of alcohol how does this inform optimal criminal justice policy How effective is deterrence on drunks Criminals apply a high discount rate to the future penalties of crime and alcohol exacerbates this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1965721594845933791)  2025-09-10T10:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"New post: in part to resolve an internal tension I have been having in part a response to @RichardHanania. I argue that libertarian arguments against government spending apply to science too (albeit with a wide confidence interval). https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/science-funding-under-a-nightwatchmanutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/science-funding-under-a-nightwatchmanutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1965855284297138183)  2025-09-10T19:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@RichardHanania Is it even worth engaging with the left tail of the IQ distribution or those operating in bad-faith Seems like a waste of time given that five seconds of reading is all it takes to confirm that political violence is far from confined to the left"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1966436940485456139)  2025-09-12T09:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"My priors are that isolated sporadic acts of political violence follow a Poisson distribution. Indeed it is well known that the timing of wars follows such. If people need to blame anything aside from the perpetrator blame randomness. YOU killed him. Literally YOU. Whoever is reading this now YOU did it. YOU killed him. Literally YOU. Whoever is reading this now YOU did it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1966440447447867589)  2025-09-12T09:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"A communist regime glorifying the revolution or MAGA's America Hard to tell apart these days News: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is circulating a letter calling on Speaker Johnson to put a statue of Charlie Kirk in the Capitol. To honor this legacy we call upon you to direct that a statue of Charlie Kirk be placed in the United States Capitol. https://t.co/T68cLJR9Ut News: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is circulating a letter calling on Speaker Johnson to put a statue of Charlie Kirk in the Capitol. To honor this legacy we call upon you to direct that a statue of Charlie Kirk be placed in the United States"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1966526824524997079)  2025-09-12T15:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@razibkhan I think likes are very important. I want to guide the algorithm into prioritising the sort of content I want to see. More likes = more info for the algorithm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1966828228045045950)  2025-09-13T11:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Twice as high as the Eiffel tower https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/15/china-tallest-bridge-huajiang-grand-canyon/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/15/china-tallest-bridge-huajiang-grand-canyon/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1966981598588661861)  2025-09-13T21:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Trump and MAGA hate the first amendment. They would rip up the constitution in seconds if they could. I'll never pay attention to a conservative decrying cancel culture again. Reporter: What do you make of Bondi saying she is going after hate speech a lot of allies say hate speech is free speech. Trump: Probably go after people like you you treat me unfairly you have hate in your heart. ABC paid me $16 million for a form of hate speech your https://t.co/MCMDjhQoMh Reporter: What do you make of Bondi saying she is going after hate speech a lot of allies say hate speech is free speech. Trump:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1968034803237675354)  2025-09-16T19:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ATabarrok @tylercowen In terms of their aggregate gains to welfare stablecoins seem to offer the most potential relative to other tokens. Most cryptocurrencies are overrated imo but stablecoins are underrated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1968036276218802647)  2025-09-16T19:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Just to be clear I don't support this law at all. Yet the rule of law is paramount. Between government via our democratically-elected representatives under constitutional checks and balances vs rule by executive fiat I know which one I'd choose TikTok is supposed to have been banned by now. App stores are supposed to face heavy fines for each day they continue to host it. It was a bipartisan bill passed by Congress signed into law by Joe Biden and then upheld by the Supreme Court. Yet it is still running and now we TikTok is supposed to have been banned by now. App stores are supposed to face"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1968316516442509690)  2025-09-17T14:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Even Ben Shapiro is highlighting the obvious Ben Shapiro tells Ezra that the right has chiefly become anti-left rather than conservative meaning opposing progressives rather than promoting conservative values. Honestly I largely agree with him this is a big problem for them. Ben Shapiro tells Ezra that the right has chiefly become anti-left rather than conservative meaning opposing progressives rather than promoting conservative values. Honestly I largely agree with him this is a big problem for them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1968317807747358966)  2025-09-17T14:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


""R&D has become more effective" but "may also render rivals technologies obsolete making innovations more transient. Because of obsolescence rising R&D does not necessarily mean rising aggregate productivity growth." https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=5242171 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=5242171"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1968370864430399624)  2025-09-17T17:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Terrorism increases AfD support. Tyler Robinson's execution of Kirk (which let's be clear was a terrorist act) will backfire in achieving his political goals. Adds to the literature showing that political violence generates a backlash in popular opinion https://www.aeaweb.org/articlesid=10.1257/pol.20230615 https://www.aeaweb.org/articlesid=10.1257/pol.20230615"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1968414315372765304)  2025-09-17T20:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Trump initially implied that RFK would only be a symbolic figure of marginal importance. Now MAHA dominates Trump administration policy with Trump stood behind RFK fully embracing it. This seems far more Machiavellian than what they accuse others of. Some 40-70% of mothers who have children with autism believe that their child was injured by a vaccine. President Trump believes that we should be listening to these mothers instead of gaslighting and marginalizing them like prior administrations. https://t.co/f43Bzmlj30 Some 40-70% of mothers who have children with autism believe that their"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1970461328071438588)  2025-09-23T12:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The UK has become a police state under Starmer. Yet the alternative Reform is worse (basically UK MAGA). Lib Dems are NIMBYs Greens are degrowther socialists Tories are pandering to Reform. I might stand myself at this rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1972309788706165126)  2025-09-28T14:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I think this counts as a debate on the left-tail. https://arstechnica.com/health/2025/09/anti-vaccine-groups-melt-down-over-reports-rfk-jr-to-link-autism-to-tylenol/ https://arstechnica.com/health/2025/09/anti-vaccine-groups-melt-down-over-reports-rfk-jr-to-link-autism-to-tylenol/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1973763346022474045)  2025-10-02T14:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The NHS supposedly our national pride is a joke. It literally rations healthcare like the USSR rationed food - you can see it in the waiting times for A&E. If people are not refused access to healthcare according to ability to pay they will be refused on quantity limits. I believe the former system of allocating scarce resources is superior as it incorporates people's preferences. Without looking I knew this wasn't the United States where our healthcare system is more humane because it has capitalism. Without looking I knew this wasn't the United States where our healthcare system is more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1974068449815990599)  2025-10-03T11:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Yes people are going to die due to lack of access to healthcare anyhow no matter whether you restrict access according to whether one is further in the queue or in accordance with ability to pay. At least the latter incorporates willingness as well as ability to pay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1974069594617696633)  2025-10-03T11:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@mikekofoed It could be a possibility that as in Britain the scale of QE means the Fed loses money if expenditure overnight rates on reserves exceed its earnings from the balance sheet. Then this matter suddenly becomes more salient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1974571162320732488)  2025-10-04T20:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@quant_____ Thank you for this. Yeah I agree - I think the argument about marriage markets not attaining equilibrium is the best explanation of these findings. So ceteris paribus polygyny would reduce the % who marry but with large frictions to matching this isn't observed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1976364750264205730)  2025-10-09T19:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Is there a role for intangibles like "empathy" in policy-making Or should we stick to utilitarian rational cost-benefit analyses guided by the evidence It strikes me as bizarre that people would let their emotions drive their thinking when intellectual rigour is needed. The problem with right-wingers is they fundamentally do not understand empathy because they do not feel it The problem with right-wingers is they fundamentally do not understand empathy because they do not feel it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1976586972572360764)  2025-10-10T09:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interest rate hikes do not always lower inflation. Actually this is implicit in a New Keynesian model without fiscal adjustment (so non-Ricardian fiscal policy which is more realistic) yet it goes against everything you hear in the media and mainstream economics commentary. So whats everyones most controversial economics take So whats everyones most controversial economics take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1977834084140478464)  2025-10-13T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@asymmetricinfo Agreed. It happened with Germany after Russia's invasion of Ukraine it can happen now. I write more about it here: https://x.com/microfounded/status/1976623479727469038t=_KDvUdP7vSL-xBD6anQUuw&s=19 New post: no the Chinese export restrictions on rare earths do not justify a move to protectionism. Caution is warranted in our response. Link below https://t.co/OM2eqfe9lT https://x.com/microfounded/status/1976623479727469038t=_KDvUdP7vSL-xBD6anQUuw&s=19 New post: no the Chinese export restrictions on rare earths do not justify a move to protectionism. Caution is warranted in our"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1977838490361401813)  2025-10-13T20:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Au contraire. There is a role for both in public life but that does not imply enforcing equality of outcomes nor all the other downstream effects from trying to do so. helen cant imagine healthy integrated feminine virtues in public life because she worships the masculine mode as inherently superior. More anti-woke tantrums dont build a vision for an integrated whole. helen cant imagine healthy integrated feminine virtues in public life because she worships the masculine mode as inherently superior. More anti-woke tantrums dont build a vision for an integrated whole"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1978898657664528783)  2025-10-16T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Given that different LLMs ply different strategies in these games do they have different personalities If we can attribute a personality to an LLM is there a sense in which they display consciousness https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.02618 https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.02618"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1978931241584857423)  2025-10-16T21:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This ties in with critiques of the great feminisation. For many MAGA conservatives (in particular the "woke right") feminisation is synonymous with the liberalism and tolerance they despise. For example is welcoming immigrants feminine One could imagine a case for such. In the Trump era the basis of rightism is increasingly that the good things about Western civilizationwell-funded public goods free markets trade rule of law civil rights etc.are gay fem-coded bullshit and need to be replaced with Third World-style patronage networks In the Trump era the basis of rightism is increasingly that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1980348728843334017)  2025-10-20T19:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Feminisation affects me personally. I did the best I could in my Substack to separate anger from analysis but with another job rejection increasingly harder to do. Hanania has a point but forgive me for being consumed with rage and vengeful ideation. https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/blame-the-government-not-feminisationutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa I stand by this post. Why should I be the one to suffer whilst she happily continues life as normal after she perverted the course of justice #HimToo https://t.co/tL2uWioRcA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1980437330097066202)  2025-10-21T00:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"AI maximises textual alignment with job postings yet employers downgrade judgement of candidates' abilities. CVs and cover letters less informative references more so. Yet greater time spent editing AI led to higher hiring success. An argument against AI for job applications"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1981018545871065519)  2025-10-22T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New post: how does the increased use of AI in job hunting affect the labour market Using a search-theoretic model I conclude that vacancies are higher relative to the counterfactual hence AI does not explain all the recent labour market cooling. https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/search-and-matching-under-the-aiutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/search-and-matching-under-the-aiutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1981779217101832432)  2025-10-24T17:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Noahpinion Yes it's mostly macroeconomic. My blog post started out as an attempt to model the implications of AI-written resums yet under reasonable assumptions it's clear that the overall effects of AI adoption cannot explain the cooling labor market: https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/search-and-matching-under-the-aiutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/search-and-matching-under-the-aiutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1982921075320312084)  2025-10-27T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New on Microfounded: links for November [----]. Covering the resurgent macro wars the great feminisation Ancient Greek humour and more: https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/what-i-have-been-reading-novemberutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/what-i-have-been-reading-novemberutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1984690632598716792)  2025-11-01T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


".@LancsPolice this week you just arrested my friend for some minor notification issue (from March) thereby making him miss his flight for a pilgrimage to Mecca. You had months to fix this. Do you guys care one iota about freedom of religion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1984743122581004377)  2025-11-01T22:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@t_holden Where's the intercept for the IS curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1986023000970314040)  2025-11-05T10:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@paulnovosad Excellent paper. I've written about this emergence of a pooling equilibrium on my Substack - exploring some of the macroeconomics implications. We should expect an outward shift in the Beveridge curve: https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/search-and-matching-under-the-aiutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/search-and-matching-under-the-aiutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1986163398350967210)  2025-11-05T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes I know there's the health argument but I'm assuming rational addiction: the desire to tradeoff length of life for alcohol consumption. .@tylercowen you're perhaps the world's most outspoken proponent of teetotalism. Why quit alcohol if everyone around you thinks the worst of you regarding your propensity to quit Surely if you're not recieving a reputational gain from abstinence then it's pointless right .@tylercowen you're perhaps the world's most outspoken proponent of teetotalism. Why quit alcohol if everyone around you thinks the worst of you regarding your propensity to quit Surely if"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1987300167108755837)  2025-11-08T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Somewhat surprising given Turkmenistan's love of marble Today's absolutely pointless geography trivia: Only five countries currently have no Swiss citizens living there. https://t.co/pYyxr0AOFI Today's absolutely pointless geography trivia: Only five countries currently have no Swiss citizens living there. https://t.co/pYyxr0AOFI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1987951445191114888)  2025-11-10T18:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New post: I test ChatGPT-5.1's nerdy personality with an economics problem. How would you grade it https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/testing-nerdy-chatgpt-51utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/testing-nerdy-chatgpt-51utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1989045118502920427)  2025-11-13T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Of course a movement that embraces Carlson harping on about demons and arguably long before MAGA with the GOP's embrace of creationism and climate-change denial is going to repel intelligent folk of all kinds. Yet a (somewhat) sane party is only a necessary prerequisite"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1990029654401396825)  2025-11-16T12:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mr_james_c Arguably anyone who has a pension is a "bond vigilante". I hate it when people speak about them as if bondholders are somehow distinct from the governed and imposing their preferences undemocratically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1990068601559126289)  2025-11-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Joke country and we wonder why economic growth has been nonexistent here. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/nov/17/reselling-tickets-for-profit-to-be-outlawed-in-uk-government-crackdownCMP=share_btn_url https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/nov/17/reselling-tickets-for-profit-to-be-outlawed-in-uk-government-crackdownCMP=share_btn_url"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1992154132053217453)  2025-11-22T08:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@captgouda24 I find with Wikipedia to understand a concept clearly you have to go on the tangent of reading the (hyper)linked articles. Your preferred LLM is a lot more efficient in this respect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1993740371281547748)  2025-11-26T17:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@pli_cachete SMD is easy to understand. Perhaps best illustrated graphically though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1993741318221439189)  2025-11-26T17:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@phl43 Agreed. Most of the time I'm willing to question conventional dogma publicly yet occasionally I self-censor (if only to avoid losing my job). Unfortunately most don't enjoy the luxury Hanania has where he can defend ephebophilia online with no professional consequences"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1993748755779305877)  2025-11-26T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Is @bryan_caplan right in his advice to enquire about holding hands Should you as @RichardHanania suggests approach dating as a "black guy hitting on girls" What should you think of @BillAckman's pickup line Find out in my latest post: https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/why-dating-is-so-difficultutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/why-dating-is-so-difficultutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1994128877413912749)  2025-11-27T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Happy Thanksgiving to the folk across the pond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1994472954655379735)  2025-11-28T18:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CoKeynesian It's not scary - the norm for most of human history has been Malthusian levels of subsistence. Most in the emerging markets (high-medium HDI: by far the vast majority of the global population) live far better than that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1996039479317201304)  2025-12-03T02:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"A good result. Socialism has decimated much of the third-world: most notoriously in Latin America. Those with lived experience under their tyrannies yield much better judgement on this than Western leftists. https://americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-next-steps-in-hondurass-close-election/ https://americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-next-steps-in-hondurass-close-election/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1996306762891215179)  2025-12-03T19:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yet its GDP/productivity growth figures are still abysmal. A reminder that 20th century "futuristic" sci-fi aesthetics do not represent the technological frontier. https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/japan-launches-human-washing-machine-for-public-use-after-expo-success-9721446 https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/japan-launches-human-washing-machine-for-public-use-after-expo-success-9721446"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/1996309805217062926)  2025-12-03T20:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"It seems to me that relative to other principal-agent relationships that it's much easier to monitor the output of AI agents. To take a Coasian view the transaction costs to prompting are also substantially less than drafting and monitoring a contractual relationship. So it seems that welfare improves overall despite increased heterogeneity in outcomes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2000010064698945668)  2025-12-14T01:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Why can't Hati emulate Bukele Jamaica (albeit the situation with gangs is not nearly as bad there) could also do with a Bukele. I recently returned from #Haiti where for the last [--] years I have been studying the gangs for @CrisisGroup: where they come from how they have evolved how they operate today and what their goals are. A thread https://t.co/YZ3o1ZqOUp I recently returned from #Haiti where for the last [--] years I have been studying the gangs for @CrisisGroup: where they come from how they have evolved how they operate today and what their goals are. A thread https://t.co/YZ3o1ZqOUp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2002096081895895326)  2025-12-19T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Football in particular the Premier League is a ubiquitous hobby amongst British males. A large part of the reason why I struggle to get engaged in the game over long periods: amongst the top teams there's a lot of randomness and mean reversion. All the rest is commentary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2002469902318514415)  2025-12-20T20:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"We can discuss the merits of different players whether the yellow card was warranted and so on all day. It bears little implications for the overall trend and that most of the game is relatively stagnant and actionless. Most goals occur via accident is my observation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2002469906206667055)  2025-12-20T20:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I actually think your posts establishing no clear link between MP and key macro variables is a good case for the MP ineffectiveness proposition being empirically true. It certainly updates my prior in that direction. Hence old-fashioned RBC models are underrated. @JavierGC14 @captgouda24 We do a lot of pretending to be Lucas compliant. Calvo fairy tells firms to change prices price indexation workers belong to one big union etc. look like preferences/technology but are clearly unrealistic. Are we really much better than 1970s economists who just sprinkled in @JavierGC14 @captgouda24 We do a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2002800381752226035)  2025-12-21T17:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New post against virtue ethics. If we are rational it follows that to act against our preferences will make us worse off. I illustrate this using rational addiction as an example. For this reason new year's resolutions are inefficient. Merry Christmas https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/in-praise-of-hedonismutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&shareImageVariant=overlay&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/in-praise-of-hedonismutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&shareImageVariant=overlay&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2004691915053346822)  2025-12-26T23:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Skiing is overrated. If I want a luxury vacation I will travel anywhere on the planet just to visit a good three-star Michellin. The best Michellins in London serve mainly foreign tourists. A gift Im giving to my kids is not exposing them to an exorbitantly expensive travel/sports hobby where people often get hurt that can only be done in winter in very specific geographies and which depends on unpredictable weather conditions. A gift Im giving to my kids is not exposing them to an exorbitantly expensive travel/sports hobby where people often get hurt that can only be done in winter in very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2004997677164200140)  2025-12-27T19:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Initially I doubted that generative AI would be that useful given the Lucas Critique. Now I'm (on the margin) less a fan of the Lucas Critique than I was. This is a significant shift in my beliefs. Turns out more data to estimate parameters better does work in many cases. was too bearish in the middle of the year. thought it would require improvements beyond RL to get much further but i was wrong. i hadnt got to test claude code outside of toy environments but when codex got good and i tried it it became clear were solidly in the takeoff was too bearish in the middle of the year. thought it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2005000125538816245)  2025-12-27T19:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I have read the objections here on X to the work of @alexolegimas and @arpitrage. Intuitively I agree that big data alone is insufficient for modelling a regime change echoing @GautiEggertsson's view. However when I prompt AI to explicitly generate a theoretical microfounded model I'm not disappointed. LLMs can apply their reasoning to resolve previously unsolved problems in mathematics. Maybe we don't yet fully understand how an LLM reasons yet there is clearly endogenous structure to its reasoning that works as a function of inferring patterns. That is huge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2005001368679932371)  2025-12-27T19:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Hopefully SE Asia doesn't take the path of Latin America on organised-crime fuelled violence and conflicts although it seems that Myanmar has already embarked on this route. You can't understand the ongoing Cambodia--Thailand hostilities without considering the extent that Chinese-Cambodian dirty money has corrupted Thailand's ruling class. Why has Thailand's military made a point of attacking scam centers as part of this latest round of fighting https://t.co/NFvV5yrryX You can't understand the ongoing Cambodia--Thailand hostilities without considering the extent that Chinese-Cambodian dirty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2005006338854887568)  2025-12-27T20:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RichardHanania @immrylee I've noticed a tendency for a woman to become more sexually confident as she ages yet obviously concave in t so stops rising in the 30s-40s. Just my anecdotal observation though so could be wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2006483106631753869)  2025-12-31T21:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"How would you even go about establishing robust and credible causal identification on this question anyhow A meta-analysis of [---] studies covering more than [--] million people found no reliable link between economic inequality and well-being or mental health. https://t.co/1PvOBjQEWd A meta-analysis of [---] studies covering more than [--] million people found no reliable link between economic inequality and well-being or mental health. https://t.co/1PvOBjQEWd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2006812379959669065)  2026-01-01T19:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@cremieuxrecueil I do wonder how you would even go about establishing robust and credible causal identification on this question though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2006812435500630382)  2026-01-01T19:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Tajikistan goes as far as banning the hijab. A 99% Muslim country with a government that makes Tommy Robinson look like an ayatollah. Turkmenistan also bans beards for most males. Many Muslim countries adopt policies that we would regard as "islamophobic" here. Why are Muslim countries better at dealing with Islamist extremism than we are And why do our leaders refuse to learn from them https://t.co/m566o7VT9C Why are Muslim countries better at dealing with Islamist extremism than we are And why do our leaders refuse to learn from them https://t.co/m566o7VT9C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2009080522530803925)  2026-01-08T01:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Of course "true communism" works if "works" = stable equilibrium. Hunter gatherer societies marked by kin based non-monetary reciprocity are close to what advocates of "true" communism want. I and the vast majority would much prefer our modern-day capitalist societies. Sometimes I forget probably 90% of the population still believes the communism wouldnt work because of human nature shit Sometimes I forget probably 90% of the population still believes the communism wouldnt work because of human nature shit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2009707425130237965)  2026-01-09T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Imagine how rich Jamaica would be if it adopted the crime policies of Bukele the economic policy of Milei and competed with the Caymans for the lowest tax rates. BREAKING🔴 MILEI FULLY REPAYS CURRENCY SWAP TO THE U.S. In a major economic achievement for President Milei Argentina has fully and rapidly repaid the US$ [---] billion drawdown from a US$ [--] billion currency swap facility with the United States Treasury. Announced by U.S. https://t.co/Ag6UXJgpfH BREAKING🔴 MILEI FULLY REPAYS CURRENCY SWAP TO THE U.S. In a major economic achievement for President Milei Argentina has fully and rapidly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2009728646412403141)  2026-01-09T20:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I consider the resource curse a function of commodities fuelling corrupt kakistocratic patronage networks - maintaining bad institutions. Yet Ghana is relatively democratic and peaceful. Assume structurally higher gold prices: should we be long on Ghana https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-31/ghs-usd-gold-spurs-ghana-s-cedi-to-first-annual-gain-since-at-least-1994utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2009732708902039871)  2026-01-09T21:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My barber also agrees that MyLahore has gone rapidly downhill over the years. Glad I'm not the only one with that view. When I went a few months ago their karahi was watery and naan soggy. Everyone there was eating burgers and chips. If I wanted that I'd have gone elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2010033340192379305)  2026-01-10T16:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A classic case of excessive expansion and the appeal to the LCD that typically accompanies that. They've sacrificed quality for volume. It was excellent when it first opened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2010033343619051844)  2026-01-10T16:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


""There is a robust positive relationship between education and free market views in most developed and developing countries". "In the case of the USSR with its anti-market educational content a change in required years of schooling saw an increase in pro-market sentiment among those people affected." This seems to mirror other research suggesting a positive relationship between intelligence and economic liberalism. Of course w.r.t. social liberalism the correlation is strong and well-established. Liberalism is the smartest ideology."  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2010761266210451578)  2026-01-12T17:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I wonder if there's a tradeoff between signalling competence vs listening to the other party here and if the optimum depends on the context of the dialogue https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=5119651 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=5119651"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2010795698258854049)  2026-01-12T19:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Alcohol was the 7th leading risk factor for mortality in 2016: 22% of female deaths & 68% male deaths. For those 15-49 the highest risk factor - 38% of female deaths & 122% of male deaths. I never realised just how large the social costs are. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30146330/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30146330/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2011166571218289135)  2026-01-13T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Note that this toll (for 15-49) covers alcohol-related suicides as well as accidents and physical health complications. Age-related diseases play a more salient role for the 50+ group"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2011175060086644973)  2026-01-13T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This sentiment is shared by many in MAGA or supporters of RW populist movements in other countries. How else do you square their citations of economic fallacies against immigration with their pronatalism despite the fact those fallacies apply to any population growth Yesterday was first day of school in Orania. Can there be anything better than this https://t.co/yuEWO6N8Uy Yesterday was first day of school in Orania. Can there be anything better than this https://t.co/yuEWO6N8Uy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2011870933653602663)  2026-01-15T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LapGong Yes in the US it likely wouldn't work. Fraud is a violation of the NAP and I don't see misinformation as distinct from fraud. We can all recognise it. If deliberate deception was a free speech issue then we wouldn't criminalise fraud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2012297555342709073)  2026-01-16T22:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Our banknotes depict the king and our last queen on them. Meanwhile the Berdimuhamedows are absent from the Turkmen manat. Cult of personalities are more prevalent in Britain than one thinks. When I lived in Africa I often saw Presidents take credit for various schemes actually funded by taxpayers. Thank you President Jammeh for building this this road 🙌 Did not appreciate this has now been adopted in London. Posters like this are all over the tube. https://t.co/c7JFPawVvK When I lived in Africa I often saw Presidents take credit for various schemes actually funded by taxpayers. Thank you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2012305025314312692)  2026-01-16T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AaronBergman18 @tylercowen @danielgross I know a way to improve the nootropic effects of coca cola which increases levels of both those chemicals in the brain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2012313357215203366)  2026-01-16T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yes. I've been terminally online since I was allowed a smartphone at [--]. I use the web primarily to boost my human capital (crystallised intelligence or stock of knowledge) and to interact with like-minded peers. Social matching is a lot more inefficient without the internet. Completely right. Growing up in Cork in the early 2000s meant not knowing many people my age interested in history economics politics or the genres of music I was into. If it wasn't for online discussion forums (the contents of which have mostly shifted on to sites like Completely right. Growing up in Cork in the early"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2012637127343775786)  2026-01-17T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yes for the median individual perhaps the internet is a net cost on key traits we care about yet for high IQ folk (those which drive most innovation and growth) there couldn't be a better technology. Positive spillovers mean we all benefit: https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/overcoming-cultural-pessimismutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/overcoming-cultural-pessimismutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2012637132288819584)  2026-01-17T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In Britain a caf must submit a planning application to the local council if it wants to improve its building or decor. This is one of the reasons why growth is so low relative to the US here. https://www.ilkleygazette.co.uk/news/25773235.planning-application-submitted-improve-cafe-culture-town-centre/ https://www.ilkleygazette.co.uk/news/25773235.planning-application-submitted-improve-cafe-culture-town-centre/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2012657773226442956)  2026-01-17T22:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Under rational addiction this glut will result in an increase in spirit consumption. Is sober curiosity primarily consumption patterns stabilising towards a steady-state Alcohol companies are sitting on huge stockpiles as demand keeps falling. Five of the worlds largest listed spirits makers Diageo Pernod Ricard Campari Brown-Forman and Rmy Cointreau are holding about $22bn worth of ageing spirits the highest inventory level in more https://t.co/vhh89DkDX1 Alcohol companies are sitting on huge stockpiles as demand keeps falling. Five of the worlds largest listed spirits makers Diageo Pernod"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2013073187395743901)  2026-01-19T02:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JerimiahLee I only drink now to socialise about once or twice a week at the most. I've not been drunk since 2-3 years ago. This equilibrium works for me. I find it helps having a regular time you drink at and limiting your drinking then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2013161944522391885)  2026-01-19T08:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"For those that haven't seen the note. Otherwise a good map. Territory sales are of course the efficient solution to prevent wars yet they cannot be enforced without credible threats of force should their sovereignty be undermined or clearing breaks down. Buying land is not new for the U.S. Its how it became a superpower. https://t.co/V0J89tZ6Zs Buying land is not new for the U.S. Its how it became a superpower. https://t.co/V0J89tZ6Zs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2013290396529340922)  2026-01-19T16:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


".@tescomobile your app out of service for over two hours is leaving me and others unable to renew hence unable to text or call. This should not be happening in [----] and ChatGPT agrees. As soon as I've renewed I'm switching provider and I encourage others to do the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2013891621662699799)  2026-01-21T08:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Fascinating. If you hold a sufficiently low discount rate (so care more about future generations including your own) this is a proposal you should consider. Natural selection also benefits low discounting so families/cultures with sufficiently high rates are selected against. If one believed that the Amish etc. cultures will inherit the Earth in a few centuries would it be culturally rational to try to assimilate into them now https://t.co/q89fBfFcpk If one believed that the Amish etc. cultures will inherit the Earth in a few centuries would it be culturally rational to try to assimilate into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2014056850333872430)  2026-01-21T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My posterior estimate for the heritability of IQ is somewhere between 50-60% which leaves a large role for environment. I must read the paper yet I guess these results can be consistent with heritability. Yet if persistence is due to increasing returns to H via some learning-by-doing mechanism then over generations heritability estimates fall and environment plays a larger role so genetic transmission tends to zero https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014067608929079629 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014067608929079629"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2014067608929079629)  2026-01-21T20:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"With AI you get the best predictive results if you start with structural priors then fine-tune with real-time data. Not a complete abandonment of the Lucas critique yet this does indeed suggest a role for adding on extra parameters. https://www.nber.org/papers/w34713 https://www.nber.org/papers/w34713"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2014436439530872938)  2026-01-22T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Reform surged to the top in a manner of months after GE [----]. I'm hoping @LibertariansUK will replicate that success within my lifetime: never lose faith as a minor party. Admittedly the prognosis for libertarianism in Britain is bleak right now. All major parties are socialist or socialist-lite. Who will be the UKs Milei Who will be the UKs Milei"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2015219216610161126)  2026-01-25T00:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I stopped reading after the antisemitism but of course the NAP justifies aggression when someone deviates from the NAP. All codified rules or social norms rely on a credible threat of punishment. Not all libertarians subscribe to the NAP btw. One of our main disagreements is between consequentialist utilitarians vs those committed to minarchy/ancap for its own sake. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015221046434013416 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015221046434013416"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2015221046434013416)  2026-01-25T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I disliked Jorgensen's pivot towards wokeness at the height of BLM yet the Mises Caucus makes me yearn for those times. Libertarians are steadfast in our beliefs. Our position does not change based on who is in office or which crowd is loudest. Government power should be limited accountable and restrained at all times. Libertarians are steadfast in our beliefs. Our position does not change based on who is in office or which crowd is loudest. Government power should be limited accountable and restrained at all times"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2016214927011205176)  2026-01-27T18:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bayesian thinking but admittedly knowing how to establish optimal posteriors given your information is the hard part. Aumann's theorem models epistemic convergence as a random walk. Hence critical thinking can be considered an art in a sense. Someone asked me how to develop critical thinking. You certainly don't do so by taking a course called "Critical Thinking." It's a skill developed by years practice often indirectly. Someone asked me how to develop critical thinking. You certainly don't do so by taking a course called "Critical Thinking." It's a skill developed by years practice often"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2016228984762081509)  2026-01-27T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AaronBergman18 This is one of those cases where you need to do the utilitarian calculus on animal lives lost vs the projected environmental gains. Just as we use QALYs when a tradeoff involves human lives we should apply the same standard to animal lives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2016232704367304772)  2026-01-27T19:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@theepicmap @grok what's the source for this data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2016992338443178163)  2026-01-29T21:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lilsIimshady @princess_edtwt You guys have clearly never been on the dark web before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2017141110720561559)  2026-01-30T07:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@anon_opin Bradford may be a shithole but it does have a city vibe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2017243806073061408)  2026-01-30T14:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Cigarettes are massively overrated. Make you nauseous and they stink. Very bad for longevity without much gains (minute relaxation if that). I don't understand how they took off in the first place how cigarettes look at me after some alcohol how cigarettes look at me after some alcohol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2017373469856412109)  2026-01-30T23:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"To test the third-world culture hypothesis we can just look at places in England that have a majority third-world (descended) population. Bradford (city itself) Birmingham Leicester Croydon Newham: all holding up fine or thriving relative to other places in Britain. I am sorry inform you that libertarianism becomes an invalid ideology once your country has been flooded with millions of third world barbarians. I like libertarianism. I think its a great way to govern. But it will not work for these times. I am sorry inform you that libertarianism becomes an invalid ideology once your country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2017597357383094401)  2026-01-31T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Now this Moltbook I did not see coming. Something out of a SciFi fantasy movie"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2017728543652737040)  2026-01-31T22:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ReubenR80027912 @Chris_arnade Because the fat in seeds are mostly polyunsaturated and saturated fats are much more fattening holding calories constant: https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/what-i-am-doing-to-delay-ageing-partutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/what-i-am-doing-to-delay-ageing-partutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2018142039842402608)  2026-02-02T01:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GiffLasta What is this power dynamic I keep hearing about this yet I've never seen an explicit definition or model before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2018182232284758353)  2026-02-02T04:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Eliminating all cancers "would add between [--] and [--] years to life expectancy. But since the median age of a cancer diagnosis is [--] the same patients would anyway soon be diagnosed with another manifestation of aging like Parkinsons hypertension severe illness from an otherwise mild infection or a broken rib". Yet "the United States spends a mere 0.54% of its National Institutes of Health research budget on the biology of aging". We need to increase funding for anti-ageing research. https://silverlinings.bio/chapter=present https://silverlinings.bio/chapter=present"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2019592565658353711)  2026-02-06T02:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"One of my main weaknesses is that I'll read widely yet when it comes to a discipline outside my immediate domain it's obvious I'm an amateur. When I tried to describe Hilbert spaces to a lay audience it's obvious that I found it difficult to describe a non-Euclidean space in multiple dimensions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020270055557120235)  2026-02-07T22:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I did manage to discuss convex optimisation Lagrangians KKT Bellmans etc. in intuitive terms. So I feel that I described accurately how economists model the world and its shortcomings - mainly our preference for easy maths over more realistic complexity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020270859722674605)  2026-02-07T22:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Many law enforcement professionals in probation or parole systems claim that sex offenders yield a tendency to minimise their crimes. Perhaps that's because most of what we consider sex crimes today are victimless and they're often today's political prisoners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020597953917006314)  2026-02-08T20:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Cocaine is one of the best nootropics going. If it was legal and supply much more deregulated such that price would be much lower you'd solve most issues with it. Sell it in doses that cannot yield overdose then bingo. Idk why it's so stigmatised in the first place. https://t.co/M5AOjcytiL https://t.co/M5AOjcytiL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020608344529203438)  2026-02-08T21:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Most consume it when drinking recreationally likely to compensate for alcohol's drowsiness so won't take advantage of the nootropic benefits. Yet coffee fuelled the Enlightenment and coke is much stronger (less jittery too)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020608347431735651)  2026-02-08T21:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Well deserved - the Young Lion Resting is a masterpiece of realism. Masters Week auctions are off to a roaring start with a new record for a Rembrandt drawing. The rare Young Lion Resting reached a historic $18 million at #SothebysNewYork today. Proceeds will benefit Panthera to support wild cat conservation. This small but powerful drawing https://t.co/OHIGKvbRIt Masters Week auctions are off to a roaring start with a new record for a Rembrandt drawing. The rare Young Lion Resting reached a historic $18 million at #SothebysNewYork today. Proceeds will benefit Panthera to support wild cat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020609774715290006)  2026-02-08T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Their gargantuan subsidies program in part responsible for high budget deficits in Hungary appeared to just delay their TFP decline. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/3910901/hungary-little-baby-bust/ https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/3910901/hungary-little-baby-bust/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2020616051558629460)  2026-02-08T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@imbrettcooper This post is no different to Trump's or RFK's rants on how tylenol causes autism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2022216266552095195)  2026-02-13T07:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Just got beaten up by two lads for no reason when going to the shop. Of course knife crime is high in Britain: how else can you defend yourself Then the law punishes the victim defending themselves not the original perpetrators. Amazing how lives are ruined by this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2022385437868970049)  2026-02-13T19:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"No. At LSE undergrad we did KKT conditions and Bellmans in our advanced micro class. We also took a course which was effectively a primer on linear algebra in Rn including eigenvectors. There was also a real analysis module but that was optional. So you only encountered proofs of minmax if you chose to. We did use duality but without the formal proof justifying such. Most undergrads though don't progress beyond partial derivatives. Gauss-Markov theorems justifying the use of the OLS estimator tend to be resigned to postgrad. Undergrad is designed in most courses to develop an intuitive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2022809769682080134)  2026-02-14T23:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vapelegend Molly is very safe the very small proportion of overdose is overwhelmingly concentrated on the naive that clearly haven't bothered to do a quick Google to learn harm reduction. Not for me though I don't want to love everyone or everything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/microfounded/status/2022833527742456178)  2026-02-15T00:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


".@tylercowen wrote recently on MR about the decline of Singapore's relative status. Here are some additional remarks highlighting the difficulty in mmaintaining political support for technocracy and in building nations from first-principles. https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/technocracy-satisfies-nobodyutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa https://open.substack.com/pub/microfounded/p/technocracy-satisfies-nobodyutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=56swa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022472139941777710)  2026-02-14T00:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"RT @dieworkwear: I don't think it has to be binary. Clothing can be an interesting lens to view culture. It also intersects with economics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023215343548907662)  2026-02-16T01:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I don't think it has to be binary. Clothing can be an interesting lens to view culture. It also intersects with economics politics and sociology in interesting ways. At the same time it doesn't tell us much about a person's deeper more important qualities such as their character intelligence or morality. And it's hardly the most important thing in the world. Many of the world's most brilliant minds don't dress particularly well such as Grigori Perelman and Terence Tao (two of the world's best mathematicians). And it's perfectly fine to prioritize other things in your life. I only object to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023169352795857400)  2026-02-15T22:55Z 1.4M followers, 133.3K engagements


"Sorry PG. How you do one thing is how you do everything. Dressing well and by extension fashion is about how you see yourself in the world and an extension of your inner beliefs. Its also a desire to see beauty in the world and be a part of that for others. Its also about seriousness and reverence. Its quite common to mark it up as superficial aesthetics. But its not. @ConwayAnderson Taste in *clothing* isn't important. If your goal is to think well clothing should just be as comfortable as possible. https://t.co/8rRepxrUIp @ConwayAnderson Taste in *clothing* isn't important. If your goal is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023068662161436788)  2026-02-15T16:15Z 10.8K followers, 155.8K engagements


"Only totalitarian regimes ban VPNs. 🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer has launched a consultation on age-restricting VPNs to stop kids bypassing the Online Safety Act He's also announced new powers to ban under-16s from social media and block infinite scrolling features at short notice pending the consultation outcome 🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer has launched a consultation on age-restricting VPNs to stop kids bypassing the Online Safety Act He's also announced new powers to ban under-16s from social media and block infinite scrolling features at short notice pending the consultation outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023214994620375265)  2026-02-16T01:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer has launched a consultation on age-restricting VPNs to stop kids bypassing the Online Safety Act He's also announced new powers to ban under-16s from social media and block infinite scrolling features at short notice pending the consultation outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023160109031989338)  2026-02-15T22:18Z 401.2K followers, 410.3K engagements


"AI is changing economics and --- as we just saw in Dwarkesh's interview with Dario --- AI researchers need to start thinking about economics too The Center for Applied AI at UChicago will be hosting an AI & Economics Summer Institute to explore exactly this. We will bring together leading researchers with advanced graduate students in economics/AI/ML/NLP for an in-person program between Aug [--] - 11"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023144702967525616)  2026-02-15T21:17Z [----] followers, 17.3K engagements


"RT @alexolegimas: Boom. From my "living" post on AI and productivity last month which noted that productivity gains in micro studies have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023213839731315140)  2026-02-16T01:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Boom. From my "living" post on AI and productivity last month which noted that productivity gains in micro studies haven't shown up in the macro data yet. I guess "sooner" came pretty quickly. Updating it now (though as @EconBerger notes below this is one data point). https://aleximas.substack.com/p/what-is-the-impact-of-ai-on-productivity US productivity growth is likely to come in at about 2.7% for [----]. That is nearly double the average of the previous [--] years. There are many factors at work but part of the story is that businesses are finally beginning to reap some of AI's benefits. I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023099123730133036)  2026-02-15T18:16Z 12.4K followers, [----] engagements


"US productivity growth is likely to come in at about 2.7% for [----]. That is nearly double the average of the previous [--] years. There are many factors at work but part of the story is that businesses are finally beginning to reap some of AI's benefits. I discuss the latest evidence in my column in the @FT this morning. See https://www.ft.com/content/4b51d0b4-bbfe-4f05-b50a-1d485d419dc5 https://www.ft.com/content/4b51d0b4-bbfe-4f05-b50a-1d485d419dc5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023075588974735869)  2026-02-15T16:43Z 211.4K followers, 132.6K engagements


"RT @Hrushworth: Many will look at Manchester and talk about how this was achieved with a focus on skills workforce planning healthcare r"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023212603653431316)  2026-02-16T01:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Many will look at Manchester and talk about how this was achieved with a focus on skills workforce planning healthcare rehabilitation interventions etc. Personally I think it can be boiled down to the fact that Manchester has just built stuff. Homes trams & better buses. Could Manchester be a model for the UK to kickstart growth https://t.co/qr0BG8ddzQ Could Manchester be a model for the UK to kickstart growth https://t.co/qr0BG8ddzQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023112012423897329)  2026-02-15T19:07Z [----] followers, 56.4K engagements


"Could Manchester be a model for the UK to kickstart growth https://bbc.in/4crGXuf https://bbc.in/4crGXuf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022955647629664750)  2026-02-15T08:46Z 15.1M followers, 156K engagements


"We should probably stop subsidising what is (for most) a costly signalling rat race with little improvements to human capital. Here's the real reason the government keeps freezing the student loan threshold The part of the loan that's repaid is classed as an asset on Treasury spreadsheets. But when plan [--] student loans started to be repaid the percentage received back was less than expected. 1/4 https://t.co/GFvKho0bu6 Here's the real reason the government keeps freezing the student loan threshold The part of the loan that's repaid is classed as an asset on Treasury spreadsheets. But when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023212077943283791)  2026-02-16T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's the real reason the government keeps freezing the student loan threshold The part of the loan that's repaid is classed as an asset on Treasury spreadsheets. But when plan [--] student loans started to be repaid the percentage received back was less than expected. 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023001865743720958)  2026-02-15T11:50Z 13.7K followers, 75.4K engagements


"Legalisation of cocaine is imperative to reduce these overdose figures. https://www.nber.org/papers/w34788 https://www.nber.org/papers/w34788"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023151668851097849)  2026-02-15T21:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"IP protections matter. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/02/the-economics-of-corporate-espionage.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/02/the-economics-of-corporate-espionage.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023151275517567151)  2026-02-15T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What is incredibly toxic about math gatekeeping is that much of what looks like math talent is actually just better early resources. So some people who had better training early on will look at the struggles of those who had worse training and be like "you'll never make it""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023059555920531651)  2026-02-15T15:39Z 32.9K followers, 13.9K engagements


"RT @cszabla: a not insignificant portion of the london tube feels something like being inside an early twentieth century submarine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023146811003986114)  2026-02-15T21:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"a not insignificant portion of the london tube feels something like being inside an early twentieth century submarine https://t.co/QL6vkurO0Q https://t.co/QL6vkurO0Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022920960647794880)  2026-02-15T06:28Z [----] followers, 92K engagements


"There's a commonly used method for causal inference that just doesn't work It's called Nonlinear Mendelian RandomizationNLMR and the hundreds of papers that have used it need to be investigated🧵 To grok the issue answer: does something look off about this vitamin D result"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949293067313258727)  2025-07-27T02:17Z 298.3K followers, 71.7K engagements


"A semi Dirac fermion isnt switching mass on and off its effective mass depends on direction inside the crystal lattice. In Zirconium silicon sulfide electrons can behave massless along one axis but act like they have mass along the perpendicular one. Same particle. Same material. Different rules depending on which way you move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023048900974698864)  2026-02-15T14:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"RT @ATabarrok: Life insurance should be illegal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023131322097807400)  2026-02-15T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Life insurance should be illegal Sorry to be a scold but wagering on people dying should not be legal https://t.co/DLQVJvlcoB Sorry to be a scold but wagering on people dying should not be legal https://t.co/DLQVJvlcoB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023052638158282964)  2026-02-15T15:11Z 93.2K followers, 387.2K engagements


"Sorry to be a scold but wagering on people dying should not be legal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022849944193790137)  2026-02-15T01:46Z 167.2K followers, 1.8M engagements


"say what you like about Henry VIII the ruins of all the monasteries he destroyed are very pleasant to look at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023011157557350909)  2026-02-15T12:27Z [----] followers, 101K engagements


"RT @PaulSkallas: I wrote about this last year. GLP-1s reduce appetite for risk. Cause Anhedonia. People's personalities change. They stop d"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023125538802397200)  2026-02-15T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I wrote about this last year. GLP-1s reduce appetite for risk. Cause Anhedonia. People's personalities change. They stop drinking gambling whoring etc. It takes your edge away. It's a fine tradeoff if you're very fat but if you're not it can be risky for your career GLPs getting banned by hedge funds Maybe by sales teams too https://t.co/oKmO9I4XwP GLPs getting banned by hedge funds Maybe by sales teams too https://t.co/oKmO9I4XwP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023100385318338667)  2026-02-15T18:21Z 170.2K followers, 635.9K engagements


"GLPs getting banned by hedge funds Maybe by sales teams too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023007813874696565)  2026-02-15T12:13Z 69.2K followers, 963.2K engagements


"This is probably the most gonzo case I have found in academic publishing: the Review of Financial Studies published an article that was critical of Fannie Mae so Fannie Mae sponsored a "replication" to get the original article retracted. Here the authors of the original article detail incredible coding issues in the "replication" (hardcoded arbitrary exclusion of observations critical data join errors arbitrary duplication of observations introduction of non-classical measurement error through flawed rounding a flawed event study design with non-mutually exclusive time dummies and incorrect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023009178566922396)  2026-02-15T12:19Z [----] followers, 51.6K engagements


"Between [----] and [----] only 0.1% of publications in the top [--] economics journals were replication studies. That's [--] years. Thousands of papers. Almost none replicated. We've built careers on findings no one has verified. When economists finally replicate studies 40-67% fail depending on the study. Federal Reserve (2015): Only 49% of [--] papers from top journals successfully replicated even with the original authors' help. Most papers Never checked at all. Here's the worst part: Papers that don't replicate get cited MORE than papers that do. And after a failed replication is published only 12%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022717510781636677)  2026-02-14T17:00Z [----] followers, 187K engagements


"RT @S_Surprenant: There are a few problems with this line of argumentation. There is a claim to be made about accurately estimating effect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023119641254514871)  2026-02-15T19:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There are a few problems with this line of argumentation. There is a claim to be made about accurately estimating effects that account only for a small fraction of total variance being a little like "cheating" or avoiding bigger questions. On occasion that is still useful for making decisions. A good example would be monetary policy. The shocks are small and they explain very little of the fluctuations in inflation or output but that small effect is under policy control. Shares in variance decompositions isn't always the right metric for importance. Another reason to do this would be to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022801112667918440)  2026-02-14T22:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The "math gap" narrative is a convenient ego boost for economists but its really a debate about what youre willing to sacrifice for a clean equation. Economics often achieves "precise causal relationships" by stripping away the exact social context that makes behavior meaningful. If you have to simplify a human system until it looks like a closed-circuit physics problem you haven't "solved" the mysteryyouve just modeled the 10% of it that is mathematically tractable. This is a fundamental disciplinary tradeoff reflected in recruitment. While top Econ PhD programs now prioritize math"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022756011791028331)  2026-02-14T19:33Z [----] followers, 93.6K engagements


"RT @alz_zyd_: Let me rebut "narrow/technical misses narratives/big thinking/complex mechanisms" with this beautiful paper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023118004809331072)  2026-02-15T19:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Let me rebut "narrow/technical misses narratives/big thinking/complex mechanisms" with this beautiful paper My economist and political scientist colleagues often ask me: "Why does sociology still sidestep the problem of endogeneity" Early in my career coming from a public policy background I didnt have a clear answer. I only had the frustration of seeing my quasi-experimental My economist and political scientist colleagues often ask me: "Why does sociology still sidestep the problem of endogeneity" Early in my career coming from a public policy background I didnt have a clear answer. I only"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023065428764107089)  2026-02-15T16:02Z 32.9K followers, 10K engagements


"My economist and political scientist colleagues often ask me: "Why does sociology still sidestep the problem of endogeneity" Early in my career coming from a public policy background I didnt have a clear answer. I only had the frustration of seeing my quasi-experimental research rejected by top general sociology journals only to land in decent interdisciplinary ones. Now after seven years as a sociology professor Ive realized the hurdle isn't a lack of resources for training; its about disciplinary trade-offs. Proving that X actually causes Y requires a specific focus that sociology often"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022537769579389131)  2026-02-14T05:05Z [----] followers, 104.1K engagements

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