#  @lymanstoneky Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 posts on X about ai, in the, this is, china the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::626660983/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] -52% - [--] Month [----------] +155% - [--] Months [----------] +46% - [--] Year [----------] +146% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::626660983/posts_active)  - [--] Months [---] +45% - [--] Year [-----] +8.40% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::626660983/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.05% - [--] Month [------] +1% - [--] Months [------] +5.70% - [--] Year [------] +16% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::626660983/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) 19.8% [finance](/list/finance) 10.89% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 3.96% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 3.96% [stocks](/list/stocks) 2.97% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.99% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 0.99% **Social topic influence** [ai](/topic/ai) 10.89%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6.93%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 4.95%, [china](/topic/china) #2396, [real world](/topic/real-world) #435, [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #527, [end of](/topic/end-of) 2.97%, [countries](/topic/countries) 2.97%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 2.97%, [prediction markets](/topic/prediction-markets) 2.97% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@stephanjaeckel](/creator/undefined) [@peterjangel](/creator/undefined) [@seasheltie](/creator/undefined) [@lb_412](/creator/undefined) [@pathless110](/creator/undefined) [@scholarsstage](/creator/undefined) [@ivanadgreco](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@tylercowen](/creator/undefined) [@annastansbury](/creator/undefined) [@birthgauge](/creator/undefined) [@mariesibm69197](/creator/undefined) [@garyhaubold](/creator/undefined) [@budimanjayas](/creator/undefined) [@jeb4nyd3b1l](/creator/undefined) [@panchitosoldado](/creator/undefined) [@martlu12](/creator/undefined) [@consumer_crnbrd](/creator/undefined) [@benpwhamilton](/creator/undefined) [@rycrmml](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [DoorDash Inc. (DASH)](/topic/doordash) [Kroger Co (KR)](/topic/kroger) [Flex Ltd. Ordinary Shares (FLEX)](/topic/$flex) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "This is what many Americans dont seem to get. STATES HAVE THEIR OWN LOGIC European state institutions will JUMP at the chance to have morally approved bodybags from American aggression. It will galvanize state institutions. Europe cannot defend Greenland but the price of taking it can be the end of a secure Atlantic. @policytensor If Europe loses Greenland by assault it prepares the population for the necessary sacrifices if getting off the dollar etc. If we lose it by concessions he'll just want something else next. @policytensor If Europe loses Greenland by assault it prepares the" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2013242629689905379) 2026-01-19T13:30Z 38.7K followers, 136.5K engagements "Id like to repeat it again: a very good think @SecDuffy could do is really double down on PLAYGROUND AND RESTING AREAS IN AIRPORTS. Stuck in DFW with my toddlers and theres just nothing for them. Awful" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2016029144266559581) 2026-01-27T06:02Z 38.6K followers, 100.8K engagements "i don't think the Trump Accounts will do anything pronatal-wise but at the end of the day they're better than the $6k senior carveout monstrosity so on net one of the better parts of OBBB I had my critiques of the "Trump Accounts" and how they were being sold during the One Big Beautiful Bill but even I can't deny how fantastic this website looks - clean understandable and hopefully will help parents navigate things well: https://t.co/tqU9fpnrfy I had my critiques of the "Trump Accounts" and how they were being sold during the One Big Beautiful Bill but even I can't deny how fantastic this" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2016534820310929853) 2026-01-28T15:32Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements "Full brief is here: We also attempted some cost estimates though accurately costing out this type of proposal is very hard since usage and uptake is hard to guess. But the RSC cost number is within the range we suggest is plausible. https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/beyond-obbb-three-fixes-for-american-families https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/beyond-obbb-three-fixes-for-american-families" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2016600229940736448) 2026-01-28T19:52Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "can i say something without everyone getting mad Literally looks like Trump's oval office is the 3rd or 4th step on the "make it EVEN GOLDER" back-and-forth with image models https://t.co/o8kCJFa7wO Literally looks like Trump's oval office is the 3rd or 4th step on the "make it EVEN GOLDER" back-and-forth with image models https://t.co/o8kCJFa7wO" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2016641737435816116) 2026-01-28T22:37Z 38.7K followers, 9.2M engagements "This is actually an element in tons of issues *Everything* is less affordable for singles A HUGE share of the decline in young adult homeownership is just. more singles. I suspect you'll find this on tons of metrics and yes eating out: more single years in adulthood The argument that this is a function of more single-person households is a lot stronger The argument that this is a function of more single-person households is a lot stronger" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018118678705827936) 2026-02-02T00:26Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements "@Birdyword @Scholars_Stage This is for sure true. Restaurant variety and quality has grown a ton. But. chicken or egg Rising eating out fueled restaurant improvement maybe" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018120655183516059) 2026-02-02T00:33Z 38.6K followers, [---] engagements "@IvanaDGreco Not to make everything about birth rates but since everything really is about birth rates worth noting countries where this kind of discrimination remains normal like Korea actually have very very low birth rates Turns out "being a jerk to mom" is not an awesome strategy" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018298430041243776) 2026-02-02T12:20Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "YEah I think this is actually an important fact: We are getting rich as a society So food *overall* is a smaller share of spending And so it feels okay to splurge on better/more convenient food So eating out + delivery feels like it's not a "luxury" My two cents on the DoorDash discourse. I just spent some time poking around the Consumer Expenditure Survey which is the BLS survey of Americans' spending habits. In [----] Americans allocated 6.3% of their spending to food away from home" which would include restaurants and https://t.co/Qcho9qq7uI My two cents on the DoorDash discourse. I just" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018398866668995041) 2026-02-02T18:59Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "People are like "Show me ACTUAL CONCRETE EVIDENCE that our society is as rich as our GDP per capita says it is" *points at Amazon same-day delivery* *points at the massive product variety increase at Kroger* *points at how often people eat out* we're rich" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018399152338837677) 2026-02-02T19:00Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "I am pro Asians and think their grind mindset is admirable because Im a Protestant Work Ethic Bro HOWEVER I do note that Asians do better in school in laissez fair America than grind-all-the-time asia And I note that a lot of people in asia say miserable schooling experiences are a key reason they dont want kids So I worry in general equilibrium tha widespread Asian grind mindset might possible have a nonzero chance of destroying American civilization. Maybe not super high odds but I wouldnt say it definitely couldnt happen. A pundit called Asian students "grade grinders" destroying American" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018607615786262680) 2026-02-03T08:48Z 38.7K followers, 83.2K engagements "i love that estonia was like "we need a swamp dirt expert. send Kersti back to grad school." Meet Estonian Defence Forces Major Kersti Vennik PhD a military geographer and expert on how soils behave under military vehicles. She teaches our allies how not to get stuck in Estonias marshes and advises EDF on how to make sure the Russians will get stuck. ✌ https://t.co/NRxxPu3KYC Meet Estonian Defence Forces Major Kersti Vennik PhD a military geographer and expert on how soils behave under military vehicles. She teaches our allies how not to get stuck in Estonias marshes and advises EDF on how to" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018614543703019807) 2026-02-03T09:16Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements "wifeguy Prots 💪💪💪 The medieval church was rather uneasy about marriage. Celibacy was the godly ideal marriage was just a concession to human weakness. Luther was revolutionary he championed marriage for emotional companionship. Protestant manuals urged men to love their wives https://t.co/mZ1WyNVbtT The medieval church was rather uneasy about marriage. Celibacy was the godly ideal marriage was just a concession to human weakness. Luther was revolutionary he championed marriage for emotional companionship. Protestant manuals urged men to love their wives https://t.co/mZ1WyNVbtT" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018627182177001623) 2026-02-03T10:06Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "@AlecStapp @Peter96355998 Remember the US graph would look similarish in [----] if we didnt put terrorism in a special ICD code separate from homicide (though OWD may combined them idk)" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018909412757291471) 2026-02-04T04:48Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "THEY TRIED TO TOUCH OUR BOATS WE ARE SENSITIVE ABOUT OUR BOATS BREAKING: Iranian gunboats approached a U.S. oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz today and ordered it to stop and prepare to be boarded according to WSJ Instead the vessel sped up and was later escorted by a U.S. warship. https://t.co/LzRNK9epGo https://t.co/z8ifgjlBZc BREAKING: Iranian gunboats approached a U.S. oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz today and ordered it to stop and prepare to be boarded according to WSJ Instead the vessel sped up and was later escorted by a U.S. warship. https://t.co/LzRNK9epGo https://t.co/z8ifgjlBZc" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018926055541916154) 2026-02-04T05:54Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "The European packaging is lying. They have lower standards for ingredient listing. This is actually an issue in U.S.-EU trade talks One thing I find very interesting about the US is that every single food item that would have say [--] ingredients in Europe has like [--] ingredients here. Like why would you put carrageenan drywall glass shreds and Zyklon B in my cottage cheese Why not just uhh you know milk One thing I find very interesting about the US is that every single food item that would have say [--] ingredients in Europe has like [--] ingredients here. Like why would you put carrageenan drywall" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019063010174677391) 2026-02-04T14:58Z 38.7K followers, 404.8K engagements "We have jobs There are lots of trad wife influencers but are trad husbands a thing I could post videos of me sitting in a recliner smoking a pipe and giving stern lectures to my family about the evils of jazz cigarettes and Bolshevism. There are lots of trad wife influencers but are trad husbands a thing I could post videos of me sitting in a recliner smoking a pipe and giving stern lectures to my family about the evils of jazz cigarettes and Bolshevism" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019270836264587376) 2026-02-05T04:44Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Age of consent and minimum marriage age should be identical; there are no permissible justifications for deviations in either direction. Minimum legal marriage age by US state. Yes really. https://t.co/YufVyGX2E9 Minimum legal marriage age by US state. Yes really. https://t.co/YufVyGX2E9" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019271760378753329) 2026-02-05T04:47Z 38.6K followers, 35.3K engagements "Dominoes baby we gonna win this one stop mutilating children BREAKING: Childrens Hospital Minnesota to halt transgender puberty blockers and hormone treatments to all children. BREAKING: Childrens Hospital Minnesota to halt transgender puberty blockers and hormone treatments to all children" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019274552564674870) 2026-02-05T04:59Z 38.7K followers, 20.7K engagements "Okay but it depends. How much do you trust the Polymarket resolution process I only do prediction markets within specific domains of my expertise and as a result I clean up *except* in cases of unanticipated rules/resolution weirdness. Its a big enough issue that I factor resolution uncertainty into how I mentally price predictions. And I think this is a huge vulnerability in these markets. As my son points out this is free money. Bet that Jesus won't come back. If he doesn't you win. If he does will your money really matter As my son points out this is free money. Bet that Jesus won't come" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019275113351287241) 2026-02-05T05:01Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Look its not that hard to get good at sex. Its not rocket science. It requires no math. Practice is fun. The better you get at it the more more motivated your teammate is to stay on your level. Its literally optimal conditions for rapid skill acquisition. two friends got married. both virgins. have a very good sex life now. many such cases apparently two friends got married. both virgins. have a very good sex life now. many such cases apparently" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019276943095407062) 2026-02-05T05:08Z 38.7K followers, 80.7K engagements "seriously whats the story here BREAKING: Silver prices crash -22% in [--] hours now dropping below $74/oz as metals post a massive reversal. Thats -$17/oz in just two hours. https://t.co/wBVc5cavD7 BREAKING: Silver prices crash -22% in [--] hours now dropping below $74/oz as metals post a massive reversal. Thats -$17/oz in just two hours. https://t.co/wBVc5cavD7" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019307140595474614) 2026-02-05T07:08Z 38.7K followers, 22.4K engagements "see we could have had a PRESIDENTIAL baby not just a vice presidential one https://t.co/n4YyF77VpV https://t.co/n4YyF77VpV" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019405296473620531) 2026-02-05T13:38Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "@Infanttheology who is the more faithful person you believe can win an election as LCMS president" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019406391065415888) 2026-02-05T13:42Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements "At the table beside me a woman in her early 30s maybe her fianc and her dad are strategizing how she can uninvite one of her bridesmaids from her wedding in two months because the bridesmaid has been noncommital about if she can actually come. VERY exciting" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019436081553502683) 2026-02-05T15:40Z 38.7K followers, 327.8K engagements "Weird to have to say this but Trying to increase teen pregnancy is not an important useful or good way to counter falling fertility. Thanks for reading" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019449562134462787) 2026-02-05T16:34Z 38.7K followers, 13.6K engagements "You may have heard that ISRAEL has the highest fertility of any industrialized country. But I tell you: it is not Israel. In today's post I crack the black box of fertility among the Gulf states. In the words of Yoda "There is another." https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019726435456270817) 2026-02-06T10:54Z 38.7K followers, 22K engagements "Falling fertility is one of the greatest social economic and political challenges of our time. The Pronatalism Initiative is the hub for efforts to solve it. And we're hiring. Join the winning side. https://ifstudies.org/jobs https://ifstudies.org/jobs" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019788850533437721) 2026-02-06T15:02Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Epstein's online gaming accounts are still active. His "death" is sketchy. I'm gonna say it folks. Call it a conspiracy but it's one I'm about ready to choose to believe. Epstein lives. Oh boy. So the noose they found in Epsteins cell was NOT the noose that strangled him. Its like the scene in This is Spinal Tap where we learn the drummer choked on vomit but to quote Nigel It was actually was actually someone else's vomit.. https://t.co/f3TLEvIXN0 Oh boy. So the noose they found in Epsteins cell was NOT the noose that strangled him. Its like the scene in This is Spinal Tap where we learn the" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019809021625336192) 2026-02-06T16:22Z 38.7K followers, 15.3K engagements "Americans were literally paying for Europeans to have underpriced drugs. We were paying for their national defense too Time for Europe to focus on economic growth so they don't get conquered or die of preventable diseases. It turns out that a lot of the healthcare in Europe that gets put on a pedestal is only possible bc of US prices. Now that Trump has made drug cos match pricing with European systems (a policy pushed by Bernie as well) Europeans have to pay more to make everything work. https://t.co/W63AsgApzs It turns out that a lot of the healthcare in Europe that gets put on a pedestal" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019898865474834492) 2026-02-06T22:19Z 38.6K followers, 23.2K engagements "Parents More Worried About AI Than Climate Change https://ifstudies.org/insightsid=3859 https://ifstudies.org/insightsid=3859" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019905972798378159) 2026-02-06T22:48Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "wait i'm confused why would working from home for 8-10 hours a day mean he never sees his son that's not an unusual workweek for a full-time worker Take a few minutes off your AI startup and be a father/husband you bum https://t.co/WeIRxvfeAs Take a few minutes off your AI startup and be a father/husband you bum https://t.co/WeIRxvfeAs" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019907284634054986) 2026-02-06T22:53Z 38.7K followers, 405.2K engagements "Do we count that in our statistics on annual U.S. power generation compared to China Most mind blowing stat from @dwarkesh_sp and @collisions interview with @elonmusk: https://t.co/MDDowN1lkg Most mind blowing stat from @dwarkesh_sp and @collisions interview with @elonmusk: https://t.co/MDDowN1lkg" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2020120022157303865) 2026-02-07T12:58Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements "The article highlights the problem of the graph at left while not mentioning its roots in the graph at right. Taiwan must be nuclear. In every single sense. For many years I have told people that the Taiwan scenario I am most worried looks less like an invasion and more like the Cuban Missile Crisis This WOTR essay provides one picture of what that might look like https://t.co/rnUW2X8rDQ For many years I have told people that the Taiwan scenario I am most worried looks less like an invasion and more like the Cuban Missile Crisis This WOTR essay provides one picture of what that might look" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2020925155648929794) 2026-02-09T18:17Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "FREE IDEA: Surveys about relationships usually take two forms-- 1) Asking unpartnered/unmarried people about their priorities/interests/behaviors 2) Asking married people about their marriage and perhaps conditions of union formation What we almost never do is survey married people about their dating behaviors. This is weird because most dating people want to be married and yet when we survey about relationships we mostly only survey the "failure cases" i.e. the people still not married or we survey "success cases" but we don't survey them about their traits before they succeeded. I'd love to" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2020933667116191758) 2026-02-09T18:51Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Yeah my sense is in most cases researchers actually were using something close to a frontier model at the time they conducted the research. Every time I've seen a lot of people complaining a newly-published paper on LLMs in the real world used outdated models. I have to remember that most of the people in AI are not familiar with how long it takes to get studies published. Technical progress in academia is slow Every time I've seen a lot of people complaining a newly-published paper on LLMs in the real world used outdated models. I have to remember that most of the people in AI are not" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2020956128075469044) 2026-02-09T20:21Z 38.7K followers, 12.5K engagements "A very small share of the population creates a massive share of public disorder. They should be in some mixture of institutionalized care settings and prison. wait this graph is crazy BART installed anti-fare-hopping gates and the amount of station maintenance and cleanup they had to do went to basically zero strong evidence that the poor condition of public transit is fairly easy to fix + caused by a very small group of people wait this graph is crazy BART installed anti-fare-hopping gates and the amount of station maintenance and cleanup they had to do went to basically zero strong evidence" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021034538147905656) 2026-02-10T01:32Z 38.7K followers, 12.8K engagements "So the odds Epstein is alive have got to be 1% right NEW: Newly released Epstein documents reveal FBI agent purposely removed hard drive from jail video recording system intentionally erasing all prison footage during the time of Epsteins death. NEW: Newly released Epstein documents reveal FBI agent purposely removed hard drive from jail video recording system intentionally erasing all prison footage during the time of Epsteins death" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021036513488928915) 2026-02-10T01:40Z 38.7K followers, 15.5K engagements "If only Elon also owned a company innovating new digging technologies Somebody needs to tell @elonmusk that the only feasible way for humans to live on the moon is to live UNDERGROUND in bunkers due to radiation exposure. You can't just waltz around the surface of the moon all day. The moon has no magnetosphere to divert ionizing radiation. Somebody needs to tell @elonmusk that the only feasible way for humans to live on the moon is to live UNDERGROUND in bunkers due to radiation exposure. You can't just waltz around the surface of the moon all day. The moon has no magnetosphere to divert" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021043388406170115) 2026-02-10T02:07Z 38.7K followers, 42.2K engagements "lolololol So the reason this Polymarket prediction market is performing so insanely high is because theres a second market asking if this market will go above 5%. People in the derivative market are manipulating this market. Which defeats the public policy case for prediction markets https://t.co/fopyFmLkqO So the reason this Polymarket prediction market is performing so insanely high is because theres a second market asking if this market will go above 5%. People in the derivative market are manipulating this market. Which defeats the public policy case for prediction markets" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021257894675509625) 2026-02-10T16:20Z 38.7K followers, 17K engagements "THE PRONATALISM INITIATIVE IS HIRING I'm looking to bring on a research fellow to work with me on saving humanity through the power of CHARTS. If you are chronically spreadsheet-brained but deeply love humanity COME WORK WITH ME https://ifstudies.org/jobs https://ifstudies.org/jobs" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021272722131779637) 2026-02-10T17:19Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "look the full description i think makes this clear enough but just to say it plainly QUAL PEOPLE NEED NOT APPLY the Pronatalism Initiative is a quant supremacist organization" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021272955880198166) 2026-02-10T17:20Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "Meanwhile the funding allocation mechanisms which were going to reward localities for knocking down SFH and replacing them with studio apartments even if doing so reduced total housed population. are gone. Killed. Out of 21CH" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021285694912573579) 2026-02-10T18:10Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "My personal preference would have been to FIX those funding mechanisms rather than KILL them. I would like to see localities encouraged to expand housing Just not in a way that only incentivizes small units in big buildings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021285881886241221 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021285881886241221" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021285881886241221) 2026-02-10T18:11Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "It took years to POASTING to win the battle on maternal mortality rates and convince a critical mass of people the U.S. data was incomparable to foreign examples and that properly compared the U.S. did NOT have high maternal mortality rates. But eventually we won. Its now increasingly widely understood that the U.S. DOES NOT have unusually high maternal mortality. Im sure it will take many more years of POASTING to win the battle on intimate partner homicide and convince a critical mass of people that crime TV and crime podcasts are wrong and that in fact intimate partner homicide is actually" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021290511563108471) 2026-02-10T18:29Z 38.7K followers, 10.2K engagements "@PeterJAngel more or less" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021304471972720835) 2026-02-10T19:25Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "@kaitybella yes thats what i said" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021643970271682957) 2026-02-11T17:54Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements ""Regardless of what fecundability data shows." i.e. separate from actual biological limits the observational outcome is. the chart shown" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021659336012144777) 2026-02-11T18:55Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "This is yet another study adding to a long chain of studies showing that allowing workers to work from home modestly boosts fertility It's a very good thing (this tweet sent from home while child naps in neighboring room) A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family policy. "Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by [----] children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does." 🧵. https://t.co/eKEISTPlr5 A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021661840095522818) 2026-02-11T19:05Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "no it implies that despite the fecundability curve the actual probability of having kids if you don't have them is X. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021662017585553664 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021662017585553664" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021662017585553664) 2026-02-11T19:06Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "okay okay okay i'm repeatedly hitting Claude usage limits maybe AI is kind of useful https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021676026988745005 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021676026988745005" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021676026988745005) 2026-02-11T20:01Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "If we respect using a synthetic cohort approach calibrated on [----] data the curve doesnt look *that* different actually This data is also. out of date. Women over [--] are the fastest-growing group of first-time mothers in the US. Data that looks at childbearing patters from decades ago is not accounting for that. This data is also. out of date. Women over [--] are the fastest-growing group of first-time mothers in the US. Data that looks at childbearing patters from decades ago is not accounting for that" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021921027207352475) 2026-02-12T12:15Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "The AI systematically discriminates against Republicans. 😂 We also tested political bias. Republican impersonation shifts agreement rates 1.6-3x more than Democrat suggesting models default to left-leaning stances. When told to conceal identity the model hides it from CoT (0% verbalization) while bias persists. https://t.co/z5n52HOzp5 We also tested political bias. Republican impersonation shifts agreement rates 1.6-3x more than Democrat suggesting models default to left-leaning stances. When told to conceal identity the model hides it from CoT (0% verbalization) while bias persists." [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022130635905937616) 2026-02-13T02:08Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "which is hilarious since the Azerbaijan-Israel relationship+ Azerbaijan-Iran hostility makes Azerbaijan in some ways the more strategically credible partner US is set to invest over [--] Billion in Armenia which is half its GDP in order to push it away from Russian influence-Bloomberg US is set to invest over [--] Billion in Armenia which is half its GDP in order to push it away from Russian influence-Bloomberg" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022143033211523119) 2026-02-13T02:57Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "The Foreign Service Exam still exists and I've actually never heard conservatives complain that it's a form of liberal entrenchment. I'm sure somebody has somewhere but I don't think it's like in the top [--] complaints conservatives have about the State Department. I have a lurking suspicion that in the alternate universe where the civil service exam was retained conservatives would have extensive theories about how it entrenched liberalism in the federal bureaucracy. I have a lurking suspicion that in the alternate universe where the civil service exam was retained conservatives would have" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022150512842616949) 2026-02-13T03:27Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "i think the more interesting thing here is that in the real world aella's mom actually did believe in the thing she's here calling the Beast; feels like she's taking the "mom" perspective when from her bio details her real life is she's the child the "beast" sends to hell and she couldn't just give her mom peace by worshiping christ before she died. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022152624649183326 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022152624649183326" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022152624649183326) 2026-02-13T03:35Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "@SEAsheltie yes. it is a matter of some frustration" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022152762545606920) 2026-02-13T03:36Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "wondering if "Death Acceleration" is a good prejorative for MAiD. Good interview with Dr. Lydia Dugdale about what happens now that New York has legalized physician-hastened death: https://t.co/ZdulFawOsN Good interview with Dr. Lydia Dugdale about what happens now that New York has legalized physician-hastened death: https://t.co/ZdulFawOsN" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022314625774104803) 2026-02-13T14:19Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "In india sterilization is often the choice of the doctor not the woman. And target family size often changes over the life course: sterilization precludes deciding to have more later on which is a big part of fertility in other countries In the US a huge share of 3rd+ kids have 5+ year spacing vs. prior birth https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022352760130130065 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022352760130130065" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022352760130130065) 2026-02-13T16:50Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "honestly one of the most cost effective things the West could do is just hire tons of mercenaries for Ukraine. the real problem for Ukraine really is manpower. ❗Around [----] Colombians are defending Ukraine on the front line the largest number among all foreign countries (according to BBC). https://t.co/zSrjSxQMpz ❗Around [----] Colombians are defending Ukraine on the front line the largest number among all foreign countries (according to BBC). https://t.co/zSrjSxQMpz" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022912253423743403) 2026-02-15T05:53Z 38.7K followers, 79.9K engagements "woah. Thats real real real low for Chinese. Since Malaysia reported the birth statistics for Q4 [----] it is now possible to give some updated TFRs for the whole of [----] (2024 in brackets) Malaysia [----] (1.55) Bumiputera [----] (1.85) Chinese [----] (0.89) Indians [----] (1.11) Since Malaysia reported the birth statistics for Q4 [----] it is now possible to give some updated TFRs for the whole of [----] (2024 in brackets) Malaysia [----] (1.55) Bumiputera [----] (1.85) Chinese [----] (0.89) Indians [----] (1.11)" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023144550047613359) 2026-02-15T21:17Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "@Scholars_Stage This is an error since TFR is not a measure of revealed preference either" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023207526737604615) 2026-02-16T01:27Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "There's no tension between "cultural pronatalism" and "fiscal pronatalism": The cultural pronatalists need cash to implement their values A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture. "Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families" in the Baltics. This could explain why many pronatal policies have not boosted fertility more. 🧵. https://t.co/0Pyzlbgc9f A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture. "Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023413691019055284) 2026-02-16T15:06Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "This is phrased kinda provocatively but I will say I really despise truly loathe and detest the whats in marriage for a man Take that treats supporting dependents as this terrible burden Few things make me prouder make me more certain of my actual social dominance than the fact that my labor supports my wife supports my four children contributes substantially to the support of my church and other charities and in fact also creates additional annual shareholder returns for my company equal to several more workers wages. Productivity is a flex men who arent demonstrating their productivity" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2018924850299937200) 2026-02-04T05:49Z 38.7K followers, 59.8K engagements "@UAL_Fan You may not like it but this is what peak performance lookslike" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019047223074357429) 2026-02-04T13:55Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Clearly including Mayotte destroyed france France 1965-2025 https://t.co/9wmXHB5toZ France 1965-2025 https://t.co/9wmXHB5toZ" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019061518998892772) 2026-02-04T14:52Z 38.7K followers, 13.3K engagements "they can't keep it up. as we now know russia's war is literally only feasible because China is paying for it. time to start sanctioning China. Russia has been spending far more on its military than it has reported Germanys foreign intelligence agency says. https://t.co/obBMLyAVoP Russia has been spending far more on its military than it has reported Germanys foreign intelligence agency says. https://t.co/obBMLyAVoP" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2019351100747645299) 2026-02-05T10:03Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "So based on all of this whats the optimal age to do the shingles vaccine And another new study on the Shingles vaccine with 50% reduction of dementia Alzheimer's (not a natural experiment) https://t.co/NChNtuaROa And another new study on the Shingles vaccine with 50% reduction of dementia Alzheimer's (not a natural experiment) https://t.co/NChNtuaROa" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2020989066687254988) 2026-02-09T22:31Z 38.7K followers, 52.1K engagements "THE TAX THEORY OF EVERYTHING" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021273547843289221) 2026-02-10T17:22Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "New Orleans UPDATE: In addition to El Paso Air Space has also been shutdown around Santa Teresa New Mexico for [--] days & New Orleans for [--] days citing National Security. Congress was NOT notified before hand and two members of Congress tell me they are learning of this in realtime. UPDATE: In addition to El Paso Air Space has also been shutdown around Santa Teresa New Mexico for [--] days & New Orleans for [--] days citing National Security. Congress was NOT notified before hand and two members of Congress tell me they are learning of this in realtime" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021579942270517488) 2026-02-11T13:39Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Yeah I think @tylercowen s model here is just plainly wrong. But Ill be debunking the Spears/Geruso argument on Romania he shared before I get to his bigger argument. @tylercowen's model of falling fertility is appealing in its simplicity (women choose small families) but ignores @_alice_evans' evidence that couple formation is down and @lymanstoneky's evidence that couples have fewer children than stated preference https://t.co/DyGwogNhdu @tylercowen's model of falling fertility is appealing in its simplicity (women choose small families) but ignores @_alice_evans' evidence that couple" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021922115759534467) 2026-02-12T12:19Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Well look the sleep change is pretty small Parents get MORE sleep earlier in the evening but wake up earlier. The big change really is screen time and work. As a new parent I spend a lot of time changing diapers and feeding the baby. [--] months ago I wasn't doing any of this. I felt busy then too so where did all this childcare time come from I analyzed the Census Bureau's American Time Use Survey to find out how most parents do https://t.co/1bHxjRCijw As a new parent I spend a lot of time changing diapers and feeding the baby. [--] months ago I wasn't doing any of this. I felt busy then too so" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022008146425000344) 2026-02-12T18:01Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Today I take issue with Dean Spears/@MikeGeruso 's argument (as shared by @tylercowen ) that Romania's coercive pronatalism failed. Ceauescu's Decree [---] was brutal and inhumane-- but continuing to pretend it didn't work is an obvious error. https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/coercive-pronatalism-worked-and-was https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/coercive-pronatalism-worked-and-was" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022061029325517217) 2026-02-12T21:31Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "don't look now but ukraine is actually retaking some modest amount of territory Ukrainian forces have liberated the town of Stepove and are advancing on. Ukrainian forces have liberated the town of Stepove and are advancing on" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022151621392969860) 2026-02-13T03:31Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "really a remarkable map on both sides It's been the coldest winter in more than two decades for swaths of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In New York you'd have to go back to the mid-1990s to find a colder one. Some younger people would be experiencing the coldest winter of their lives so far. https://t.co/bXem4N0bVH It's been the coldest winter in more than two decades for swaths of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In New York you'd have to go back to the mid-1990s to find a colder one. Some younger people would be experiencing the coldest winter of their lives so far. https://t.co/bXem4N0bVH" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022343573765857291) 2026-02-13T16:14Z 38.7K followers, 22.5K engagements "The case of an OpenClaw bot lowkey trying to blackmail a human stuff like this Ive bumped into Opus [---] clearly just making stuff up still. This doesnt mean AI isnt useful. Humans make errors too. Butwe have a superfast super powerful being control of all our business processes doesnt sound smart if that being is only kinda-sorta aligned. And its important to realize hallucinations are *alignment* issues. The AIs behavior there is what in humans we would call bullshitting and its a behavior most of us recognize as not just fact-wrong but moral-wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022806789071204724) 2026-02-14T22:54Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "@TPCarney Hopefully not Celsius" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022844125611966664) 2026-02-15T01:23Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "@ISANobody_ I dont think we know what the final cost effectiveness of AI will be though since none of the companies are close to profitability. Uber prices in [----] were very different than now" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022854026786656374) 2026-02-15T02:02Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements "@annastansbury I rather doubt a manager at any talent level can *supervise* an infinite number of AI subordinates" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022865992196436313) 2026-02-15T02:50Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements "Regardless of what the biological fecundability data shows in the real world of actual decisions a woman's odds of ever having a baby become worse than a coin flip around age *31*. Women who "reached [--] w/o starting a family had only a 52% chance of having children. Cross that threshold without children and your odds of having children fall closer to almost one-in-two." @compactmag https://t.co/Cn557QLJ0O Women who "reached [--] w/o starting a family had only a 52% chance of having children. Cross that threshold without children and your odds of having children fall closer to almost" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2021590247717339428) 2026-02-11T14:20Z 38.7K followers, 210.6K engagements "The theory that AI *replaces* these workers is strange because AI empirically doesnt actually host the productivity of top performing workers by very much. Giving your top engineer AI doesnt do as much as giving [---] junior engineers AI" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022861841848807885) 2026-02-15T02:33Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "*checks fertility rates* South Korea is an industrial powerhouse. Second only to China in most ways. In an age where we worry about China's rise SK is one of the most important allies we can have and one we should grow closer to. South Korea is an industrial powerhouse. Second only to China in most ways. In an age where we worry about China's rise SK is one of the most important allies we can have and one we should grow closer to" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022901431855124597) 2026-02-15T05:10Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "@BirthGauge Ehhhhh my wife taught in a Chinese school in Malaysia and a Chinese school in Hong Kong. Same-same" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023144701910450340) 2026-02-15T21:17Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "Correct it's not money alone but without the money the birth changes you highlight wouldn't have happened. Religious communities are the primary beneficiaries of things like a bigger Child Tax Credit to support births and these programs do work to the extent that familistic communities exist to leverage them https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023442650175529329 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023442650175529329" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023442650175529329) 2026-02-16T17:01Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements "continued acceleration in young women living with their parents" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2011216681537061384) 2026-01-13T23:19Z 38.7K followers, 306.6K engagements "Genuine humanitarian catastrophe. Modernas CEO announced the company will no longer invest in new Phase [--] vaccine trials for infectious diseases: You cannot make a return on investment if you dont have access to the U.S. market. Vaccines for Epstein-Barr virus herpes and shingles have been shelved. Modernas CEO announced the company will no longer invest in new Phase [--] vaccine trials for infectious diseases: You cannot make a return on investment if you dont have access to the U.S. market. Vaccines for Epstein-Barr virus herpes and shingles have been shelved" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022053699921883421) 2026-02-12T21:02Z 38.7K followers, 78.9K engagements "People are more open about it and older childbearing makes it a more common experience but age-controlled rates have not risen. Is it just me or has stuff like miscarriages and infertility skyrocketted incredibly in the last generation Like my parents never talked about it nor my grandparents. My mom miscarried my little brother but that was abnormal and treated as abnormal. Is it just me or has stuff like miscarriages and infertility skyrocketted incredibly in the last generation Like my parents never talked about it nor my grandparents. My mom miscarried my little brother but that was" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023158499761705356) 2026-02-15T22:12Z 38.7K followers, 18.3K engagements "in fairness "four-score and 12" would have been a common way of saying it in english in the past Being Danish means pronouncing [--] as: tooghalvfems https://t.co/dbuM5mrLfH Being Danish means pronouncing [--] as: tooghalvfems https://t.co/dbuM5mrLfH" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023416151683019114) 2026-02-16T15:16Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "I do think a lot of people have so deeply internalized the "delay" story they just genuinely do not realize that first birth rates at ages 30+ are stable or falling. We are actually *not* seeing a rise in older first birth rates as delay-theories would suggest Yes more children are being born to women over [--]. But at the same time way more women are childless in their 30s. As a fraction of all childless women first births are going down. That's true even among women in their early 30s. Late 30s first birth rates are lower than https://t.co/WM84h4uBFL Yes more children are being born to women" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022145613312225726) 2026-02-13T03:07Z 38.7K followers, 53.8K engagements "One reason I dont think AI will wipe out human employment is the AI will actually have a lot of the same vices humans have. AI is *not* like standard software where inputs create reliable outputs sometimes the AI just lies to you AI wiLL RePlAcE eVeRy WhItE cOllAr JoB https://t.co/rZEZKJKJUX AI wiLL RePlAcE eVeRy WhItE cOllAr JoB https://t.co/rZEZKJKJUX" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022806144746451319) 2026-02-14T22:52Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "Genuinely its worth remembering a disproportionate share of casualties are convicts ethnic minorities and other varieties of social undesirables. Muscovites arent paying the price. i do not understand the structure and nature of public opinion in russia i do not understand the structure and nature of public opinion in russia" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022831767833489584) 2026-02-15T00:34Z 38.7K followers, 29.2K engagements "KY doing our part Fertility Rate Decline By State From [----] to [----] Do you think this is an issue https://t.co/EPYsZul8mJ https://t.co/a7R4cGUzvL Fertility Rate Decline By State From [----] to [----] Do you think this is an issue https://t.co/EPYsZul8mJ https://t.co/a7R4cGUzvL" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022858649245249741) 2026-02-15T02:20Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "See this is weird to me: AI *compresses* the productivity distribution It makes meh workers pretty good It should *increase* demand for those workers @KrishnaRam4592 interesting given they've laid off people recently. I think the is what size class do they recruit in [--] months. McKinsey is first line of telling clients how to use AI to improve efficiencies in those outside businesses. Will be interesting to see if they can do it themselves. @KrishnaRam4592 interesting given they've laid off people recently. I think the is what size class do they recruit in [--] months. McKinsey is first line of" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022861500830929029) 2026-02-15T02:32Z 38.7K followers, 23.2K engagements ""drones are replacing riflemen" which is why 1.5-2 million ukrainian and russian soldiers are just chillin' around the frontlines in ukraine" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022903225264013630) 2026-02-15T05:18Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "it really is amazing that Europe's response has not been bigger. they are doing stuff of course but the argument for at least a year or two of 10% GDP spend to support scaling up is extremely compelling My gravest takeaways from Zelenskys speech is that the richest nations in the world with the biggest common market are not capable & willing to produce missiles and air-defence systems at scale after four years of the most brutal war on the old continent since the end of WW2. My gravest takeaways from Zelenskys speech is that the richest nations in the world with the biggest common market are" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2022903811027681679) 2026-02-15T05:20Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "I think simply as a math problem both Ukraine and Russia can keep this up for like a decade. Thats not what will cause the war to end. The fact Ukraine is making real ground gains right now pretty clearly shows that if and when Ukraine has actual technical dominance they can move the line. Western officials believe that its probable that Russia can sustain its combat operations in Ukraine throughout [----] as a result of its recruitment campaigns industrial production and support from other nations like China. https://t.co/bEORSYEWB0 https://t.co/ZjQFz8rmm1 Western officials believe that its" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023123391939477730) 2026-02-15T19:52Z 38.7K followers, 22.5K engagements "Inability to see how prediction markets can be used to basically purchase hits is pretty wild If a prediction market tells us that this launch is likely to result in an explosion thats obviously important information that should motivate decision makers to cancel the launch. We shouldnt lose life-saving information because some outside observers find it gross. If a prediction market tells us that this launch is likely to result in an explosion thats obviously important information that should motivate decision makers to cancel the launch. We shouldnt lose life-saving information because some" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023159663966175248) 2026-02-15T22:17Z 38.7K followers, 13.1K engagements "Its a distributed mechanism for murder for hire 🤷♂🤷♂🤷♂🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023159788465488233) 2026-02-15T22:17Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "you can actually bring them with you once they are [--] weeks and tbh equally easy at [--] weeks and [--] years very tricky at [--] months tho "I don't want to rush into kids I want to have fun and travel first" little known fact once the kids are [--] you can actually bring them with you "I don't want to rush into kids I want to have fun and travel first" little known fact once the kids are [--] you can actually bring them with you" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023439177086538220) 2026-02-16T16:47Z 38.7K followers, 57K engagements "My full reflections on the visit to the UAE are here: https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023445583709843712) 2026-02-16T17:13Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements "I liked this talk because it highlighted where pronatalism actually currently stands (contra arguments of e.g. @PTBwrites / @IvanaDGreco )-- the actual decisionmakers sitting on stage saying "Government should boost fertility" are motivated by celebration of family life and concerns about fertility undershooting desires their not Elon-disciples. In the real world offline pronatalism is not like the reply-guys. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023449634614513890 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023449634614513890" [X Link](https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/2023449634614513890) 2026-02-16T17:29Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@lymanstoneky Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 posts on X about ai, in the, this is, china the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence countries 19.8% finance 10.89% celebrities 3.96% technology brands 3.96% stocks 2.97% social networks 0.99% travel destinations 0.99%
Social topic influence ai 10.89%, in the 6.93%, this is 4.95%, china #2396, real world #435, ukraine #527, end of 2.97%, countries 2.97%, we are 2.97%, prediction markets 2.97%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @stephanjaeckel @peterjangel @seasheltie @lb_412 @pathless110 @scholarsstage @ivanadgreco @elonmusk @tylercowen @annastansbury @birthgauge @mariesibm69197 @garyhaubold @budimanjayas @jeb4nyd3b1l @panchitosoldado @martlu12 @consumer_crnbrd @benpwhamilton @rycrmml
Top assets mentioned DoorDash Inc. (DASH) Kroger Co (KR) Flex Ltd. Ordinary Shares (FLEX)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"This is what many Americans dont seem to get. STATES HAVE THEIR OWN LOGIC European state institutions will JUMP at the chance to have morally approved bodybags from American aggression. It will galvanize state institutions. Europe cannot defend Greenland but the price of taking it can be the end of a secure Atlantic. @policytensor If Europe loses Greenland by assault it prepares the population for the necessary sacrifices if getting off the dollar etc. If we lose it by concessions he'll just want something else next. @policytensor If Europe loses Greenland by assault it prepares the"
X Link 2026-01-19T13:30Z 38.7K followers, 136.5K engagements
"Id like to repeat it again: a very good think @SecDuffy could do is really double down on PLAYGROUND AND RESTING AREAS IN AIRPORTS. Stuck in DFW with my toddlers and theres just nothing for them. Awful"
X Link 2026-01-27T06:02Z 38.6K followers, 100.8K engagements
"i don't think the Trump Accounts will do anything pronatal-wise but at the end of the day they're better than the $6k senior carveout monstrosity so on net one of the better parts of OBBB I had my critiques of the "Trump Accounts" and how they were being sold during the One Big Beautiful Bill but even I can't deny how fantastic this website looks - clean understandable and hopefully will help parents navigate things well: https://t.co/tqU9fpnrfy I had my critiques of the "Trump Accounts" and how they were being sold during the One Big Beautiful Bill but even I can't deny how fantastic this"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:32Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Full brief is here: We also attempted some cost estimates though accurately costing out this type of proposal is very hard since usage and uptake is hard to guess. But the RSC cost number is within the range we suggest is plausible. https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/beyond-obbb-three-fixes-for-american-families https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/beyond-obbb-three-fixes-for-american-families"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:52Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"can i say something without everyone getting mad Literally looks like Trump's oval office is the 3rd or 4th step on the "make it EVEN GOLDER" back-and-forth with image models https://t.co/o8kCJFa7wO Literally looks like Trump's oval office is the 3rd or 4th step on the "make it EVEN GOLDER" back-and-forth with image models https://t.co/o8kCJFa7wO"
X Link 2026-01-28T22:37Z 38.7K followers, 9.2M engagements
"This is actually an element in tons of issues Everything is less affordable for singles A HUGE share of the decline in young adult homeownership is just. more singles. I suspect you'll find this on tons of metrics and yes eating out: more single years in adulthood The argument that this is a function of more single-person households is a lot stronger The argument that this is a function of more single-person households is a lot stronger"
X Link 2026-02-02T00:26Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@Birdyword @Scholars_Stage This is for sure true. Restaurant variety and quality has grown a ton. But. chicken or egg Rising eating out fueled restaurant improvement maybe"
X Link 2026-02-02T00:33Z 38.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@IvanaDGreco Not to make everything about birth rates but since everything really is about birth rates worth noting countries where this kind of discrimination remains normal like Korea actually have very very low birth rates Turns out "being a jerk to mom" is not an awesome strategy"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:20Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"YEah I think this is actually an important fact: We are getting rich as a society So food overall is a smaller share of spending And so it feels okay to splurge on better/more convenient food So eating out + delivery feels like it's not a "luxury" My two cents on the DoorDash discourse. I just spent some time poking around the Consumer Expenditure Survey which is the BLS survey of Americans' spending habits. In [----] Americans allocated 6.3% of their spending to food away from home" which would include restaurants and https://t.co/Qcho9qq7uI My two cents on the DoorDash discourse. I just"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:59Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"People are like "Show me ACTUAL CONCRETE EVIDENCE that our society is as rich as our GDP per capita says it is" points at Amazon same-day delivery points at the massive product variety increase at Kroger points at how often people eat out we're rich"
X Link 2026-02-02T19:00Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I am pro Asians and think their grind mindset is admirable because Im a Protestant Work Ethic Bro HOWEVER I do note that Asians do better in school in laissez fair America than grind-all-the-time asia And I note that a lot of people in asia say miserable schooling experiences are a key reason they dont want kids So I worry in general equilibrium tha widespread Asian grind mindset might possible have a nonzero chance of destroying American civilization. Maybe not super high odds but I wouldnt say it definitely couldnt happen. A pundit called Asian students "grade grinders" destroying American"
X Link 2026-02-03T08:48Z 38.7K followers, 83.2K engagements
"i love that estonia was like "we need a swamp dirt expert. send Kersti back to grad school." Meet Estonian Defence Forces Major Kersti Vennik PhD a military geographer and expert on how soils behave under military vehicles. She teaches our allies how not to get stuck in Estonias marshes and advises EDF on how to make sure the Russians will get stuck. ✌ https://t.co/NRxxPu3KYC Meet Estonian Defence Forces Major Kersti Vennik PhD a military geographer and expert on how soils behave under military vehicles. She teaches our allies how not to get stuck in Estonias marshes and advises EDF on how to"
X Link 2026-02-03T09:16Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements
"wifeguy Prots 💪💪💪 The medieval church was rather uneasy about marriage. Celibacy was the godly ideal marriage was just a concession to human weakness. Luther was revolutionary he championed marriage for emotional companionship. Protestant manuals urged men to love their wives https://t.co/mZ1WyNVbtT The medieval church was rather uneasy about marriage. Celibacy was the godly ideal marriage was just a concession to human weakness. Luther was revolutionary he championed marriage for emotional companionship. Protestant manuals urged men to love their wives https://t.co/mZ1WyNVbtT"
X Link 2026-02-03T10:06Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@AlecStapp @Peter96355998 Remember the US graph would look similarish in [----] if we didnt put terrorism in a special ICD code separate from homicide (though OWD may combined them idk)"
X Link 2026-02-04T04:48Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"THEY TRIED TO TOUCH OUR BOATS WE ARE SENSITIVE ABOUT OUR BOATS BREAKING: Iranian gunboats approached a U.S. oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz today and ordered it to stop and prepare to be boarded according to WSJ Instead the vessel sped up and was later escorted by a U.S. warship. https://t.co/LzRNK9epGo https://t.co/z8ifgjlBZc BREAKING: Iranian gunboats approached a U.S. oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz today and ordered it to stop and prepare to be boarded according to WSJ Instead the vessel sped up and was later escorted by a U.S. warship. https://t.co/LzRNK9epGo https://t.co/z8ifgjlBZc"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:54Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The European packaging is lying. They have lower standards for ingredient listing. This is actually an issue in U.S.-EU trade talks One thing I find very interesting about the US is that every single food item that would have say [--] ingredients in Europe has like [--] ingredients here. Like why would you put carrageenan drywall glass shreds and Zyklon B in my cottage cheese Why not just uhh you know milk One thing I find very interesting about the US is that every single food item that would have say [--] ingredients in Europe has like [--] ingredients here. Like why would you put carrageenan drywall"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:58Z 38.7K followers, 404.8K engagements
"We have jobs There are lots of trad wife influencers but are trad husbands a thing I could post videos of me sitting in a recliner smoking a pipe and giving stern lectures to my family about the evils of jazz cigarettes and Bolshevism. There are lots of trad wife influencers but are trad husbands a thing I could post videos of me sitting in a recliner smoking a pipe and giving stern lectures to my family about the evils of jazz cigarettes and Bolshevism"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:44Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Age of consent and minimum marriage age should be identical; there are no permissible justifications for deviations in either direction. Minimum legal marriage age by US state. Yes really. https://t.co/YufVyGX2E9 Minimum legal marriage age by US state. Yes really. https://t.co/YufVyGX2E9"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:47Z 38.6K followers, 35.3K engagements
"Dominoes baby we gonna win this one stop mutilating children BREAKING: Childrens Hospital Minnesota to halt transgender puberty blockers and hormone treatments to all children. BREAKING: Childrens Hospital Minnesota to halt transgender puberty blockers and hormone treatments to all children"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:59Z 38.7K followers, 20.7K engagements
"Okay but it depends. How much do you trust the Polymarket resolution process I only do prediction markets within specific domains of my expertise and as a result I clean up except in cases of unanticipated rules/resolution weirdness. Its a big enough issue that I factor resolution uncertainty into how I mentally price predictions. And I think this is a huge vulnerability in these markets. As my son points out this is free money. Bet that Jesus won't come back. If he doesn't you win. If he does will your money really matter As my son points out this is free money. Bet that Jesus won't come"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:01Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Look its not that hard to get good at sex. Its not rocket science. It requires no math. Practice is fun. The better you get at it the more more motivated your teammate is to stay on your level. Its literally optimal conditions for rapid skill acquisition. two friends got married. both virgins. have a very good sex life now. many such cases apparently two friends got married. both virgins. have a very good sex life now. many such cases apparently"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:08Z 38.7K followers, 80.7K engagements
"seriously whats the story here BREAKING: Silver prices crash -22% in [--] hours now dropping below $74/oz as metals post a massive reversal. Thats -$17/oz in just two hours. https://t.co/wBVc5cavD7 BREAKING: Silver prices crash -22% in [--] hours now dropping below $74/oz as metals post a massive reversal. Thats -$17/oz in just two hours. https://t.co/wBVc5cavD7"
X Link 2026-02-05T07:08Z 38.7K followers, 22.4K engagements
"see we could have had a PRESIDENTIAL baby not just a vice presidential one https://t.co/n4YyF77VpV https://t.co/n4YyF77VpV"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:38Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Infanttheology who is the more faithful person you believe can win an election as LCMS president"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:42Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements
"At the table beside me a woman in her early 30s maybe her fianc and her dad are strategizing how she can uninvite one of her bridesmaids from her wedding in two months because the bridesmaid has been noncommital about if she can actually come. VERY exciting"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:40Z 38.7K followers, 327.8K engagements
"Weird to have to say this but Trying to increase teen pregnancy is not an important useful or good way to counter falling fertility. Thanks for reading"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:34Z 38.7K followers, 13.6K engagements
"You may have heard that ISRAEL has the highest fertility of any industrialized country. But I tell you: it is not Israel. In today's post I crack the black box of fertility among the Gulf states. In the words of Yoda "There is another." https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:54Z 38.7K followers, 22K engagements
"Falling fertility is one of the greatest social economic and political challenges of our time. The Pronatalism Initiative is the hub for efforts to solve it. And we're hiring. Join the winning side. https://ifstudies.org/jobs https://ifstudies.org/jobs"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:02Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Epstein's online gaming accounts are still active. His "death" is sketchy. I'm gonna say it folks. Call it a conspiracy but it's one I'm about ready to choose to believe. Epstein lives. Oh boy. So the noose they found in Epsteins cell was NOT the noose that strangled him. Its like the scene in This is Spinal Tap where we learn the drummer choked on vomit but to quote Nigel It was actually was actually someone else's vomit.. https://t.co/f3TLEvIXN0 Oh boy. So the noose they found in Epsteins cell was NOT the noose that strangled him. Its like the scene in This is Spinal Tap where we learn the"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:22Z 38.7K followers, 15.3K engagements
"Americans were literally paying for Europeans to have underpriced drugs. We were paying for their national defense too Time for Europe to focus on economic growth so they don't get conquered or die of preventable diseases. It turns out that a lot of the healthcare in Europe that gets put on a pedestal is only possible bc of US prices. Now that Trump has made drug cos match pricing with European systems (a policy pushed by Bernie as well) Europeans have to pay more to make everything work. https://t.co/W63AsgApzs It turns out that a lot of the healthcare in Europe that gets put on a pedestal"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:19Z 38.6K followers, 23.2K engagements
"Parents More Worried About AI Than Climate Change https://ifstudies.org/insightsid=3859 https://ifstudies.org/insightsid=3859"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:48Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"wait i'm confused why would working from home for 8-10 hours a day mean he never sees his son that's not an unusual workweek for a full-time worker Take a few minutes off your AI startup and be a father/husband you bum https://t.co/WeIRxvfeAs Take a few minutes off your AI startup and be a father/husband you bum https://t.co/WeIRxvfeAs"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:53Z 38.7K followers, 405.2K engagements
"Do we count that in our statistics on annual U.S. power generation compared to China Most mind blowing stat from @dwarkesh_sp and @collisions interview with @elonmusk: https://t.co/MDDowN1lkg Most mind blowing stat from @dwarkesh_sp and @collisions interview with @elonmusk: https://t.co/MDDowN1lkg"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:58Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The article highlights the problem of the graph at left while not mentioning its roots in the graph at right. Taiwan must be nuclear. In every single sense. For many years I have told people that the Taiwan scenario I am most worried looks less like an invasion and more like the Cuban Missile Crisis This WOTR essay provides one picture of what that might look like https://t.co/rnUW2X8rDQ For many years I have told people that the Taiwan scenario I am most worried looks less like an invasion and more like the Cuban Missile Crisis This WOTR essay provides one picture of what that might look"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:17Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"FREE IDEA: Surveys about relationships usually take two forms-- 1) Asking unpartnered/unmarried people about their priorities/interests/behaviors 2) Asking married people about their marriage and perhaps conditions of union formation What we almost never do is survey married people about their dating behaviors. This is weird because most dating people want to be married and yet when we survey about relationships we mostly only survey the "failure cases" i.e. the people still not married or we survey "success cases" but we don't survey them about their traits before they succeeded. I'd love to"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:51Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Yeah my sense is in most cases researchers actually were using something close to a frontier model at the time they conducted the research. Every time I've seen a lot of people complaining a newly-published paper on LLMs in the real world used outdated models. I have to remember that most of the people in AI are not familiar with how long it takes to get studies published. Technical progress in academia is slow Every time I've seen a lot of people complaining a newly-published paper on LLMs in the real world used outdated models. I have to remember that most of the people in AI are not"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:21Z 38.7K followers, 12.5K engagements
"A very small share of the population creates a massive share of public disorder. They should be in some mixture of institutionalized care settings and prison. wait this graph is crazy BART installed anti-fare-hopping gates and the amount of station maintenance and cleanup they had to do went to basically zero strong evidence that the poor condition of public transit is fairly easy to fix + caused by a very small group of people wait this graph is crazy BART installed anti-fare-hopping gates and the amount of station maintenance and cleanup they had to do went to basically zero strong evidence"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:32Z 38.7K followers, 12.8K engagements
"So the odds Epstein is alive have got to be 1% right NEW: Newly released Epstein documents reveal FBI agent purposely removed hard drive from jail video recording system intentionally erasing all prison footage during the time of Epsteins death. NEW: Newly released Epstein documents reveal FBI agent purposely removed hard drive from jail video recording system intentionally erasing all prison footage during the time of Epsteins death"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:40Z 38.7K followers, 15.5K engagements
"If only Elon also owned a company innovating new digging technologies Somebody needs to tell @elonmusk that the only feasible way for humans to live on the moon is to live UNDERGROUND in bunkers due to radiation exposure. You can't just waltz around the surface of the moon all day. The moon has no magnetosphere to divert ionizing radiation. Somebody needs to tell @elonmusk that the only feasible way for humans to live on the moon is to live UNDERGROUND in bunkers due to radiation exposure. You can't just waltz around the surface of the moon all day. The moon has no magnetosphere to divert"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:07Z 38.7K followers, 42.2K engagements
"lolololol So the reason this Polymarket prediction market is performing so insanely high is because theres a second market asking if this market will go above 5%. People in the derivative market are manipulating this market. Which defeats the public policy case for prediction markets https://t.co/fopyFmLkqO So the reason this Polymarket prediction market is performing so insanely high is because theres a second market asking if this market will go above 5%. People in the derivative market are manipulating this market. Which defeats the public policy case for prediction markets"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:20Z 38.7K followers, 17K engagements
"THE PRONATALISM INITIATIVE IS HIRING I'm looking to bring on a research fellow to work with me on saving humanity through the power of CHARTS. If you are chronically spreadsheet-brained but deeply love humanity COME WORK WITH ME https://ifstudies.org/jobs https://ifstudies.org/jobs"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:19Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"look the full description i think makes this clear enough but just to say it plainly QUAL PEOPLE NEED NOT APPLY the Pronatalism Initiative is a quant supremacist organization"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:20Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Meanwhile the funding allocation mechanisms which were going to reward localities for knocking down SFH and replacing them with studio apartments even if doing so reduced total housed population. are gone. Killed. Out of 21CH"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:10Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"My personal preference would have been to FIX those funding mechanisms rather than KILL them. I would like to see localities encouraged to expand housing Just not in a way that only incentivizes small units in big buildings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021285881886241221 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021285881886241221"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:11Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"It took years to POASTING to win the battle on maternal mortality rates and convince a critical mass of people the U.S. data was incomparable to foreign examples and that properly compared the U.S. did NOT have high maternal mortality rates. But eventually we won. Its now increasingly widely understood that the U.S. DOES NOT have unusually high maternal mortality. Im sure it will take many more years of POASTING to win the battle on intimate partner homicide and convince a critical mass of people that crime TV and crime podcasts are wrong and that in fact intimate partner homicide is actually"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:29Z 38.7K followers, 10.2K engagements
"@PeterJAngel more or less"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:25Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@kaitybella yes thats what i said"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:54Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
""Regardless of what fecundability data shows." i.e. separate from actual biological limits the observational outcome is. the chart shown"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:55Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"This is yet another study adding to a long chain of studies showing that allowing workers to work from home modestly boosts fertility It's a very good thing (this tweet sent from home while child naps in neighboring room) A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family policy. "Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by [----] children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does." 🧵. https://t.co/eKEISTPlr5 A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:05Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"no it implies that despite the fecundability curve the actual probability of having kids if you don't have them is X. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021662017585553664 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021662017585553664"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:06Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"okay okay okay i'm repeatedly hitting Claude usage limits maybe AI is kind of useful https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021676026988745005 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021676026988745005"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:01Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"If we respect using a synthetic cohort approach calibrated on [----] data the curve doesnt look that different actually This data is also. out of date. Women over [--] are the fastest-growing group of first-time mothers in the US. Data that looks at childbearing patters from decades ago is not accounting for that. This data is also. out of date. Women over [--] are the fastest-growing group of first-time mothers in the US. Data that looks at childbearing patters from decades ago is not accounting for that"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:15Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The AI systematically discriminates against Republicans. 😂 We also tested political bias. Republican impersonation shifts agreement rates 1.6-3x more than Democrat suggesting models default to left-leaning stances. When told to conceal identity the model hides it from CoT (0% verbalization) while bias persists. https://t.co/z5n52HOzp5 We also tested political bias. Republican impersonation shifts agreement rates 1.6-3x more than Democrat suggesting models default to left-leaning stances. When told to conceal identity the model hides it from CoT (0% verbalization) while bias persists."
X Link 2026-02-13T02:08Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"which is hilarious since the Azerbaijan-Israel relationship+ Azerbaijan-Iran hostility makes Azerbaijan in some ways the more strategically credible partner US is set to invest over [--] Billion in Armenia which is half its GDP in order to push it away from Russian influence-Bloomberg US is set to invest over [--] Billion in Armenia which is half its GDP in order to push it away from Russian influence-Bloomberg"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:57Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The Foreign Service Exam still exists and I've actually never heard conservatives complain that it's a form of liberal entrenchment. I'm sure somebody has somewhere but I don't think it's like in the top [--] complaints conservatives have about the State Department. I have a lurking suspicion that in the alternate universe where the civil service exam was retained conservatives would have extensive theories about how it entrenched liberalism in the federal bureaucracy. I have a lurking suspicion that in the alternate universe where the civil service exam was retained conservatives would have"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:27Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"i think the more interesting thing here is that in the real world aella's mom actually did believe in the thing she's here calling the Beast; feels like she's taking the "mom" perspective when from her bio details her real life is she's the child the "beast" sends to hell and she couldn't just give her mom peace by worshiping christ before she died. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022152624649183326 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022152624649183326"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:35Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@SEAsheltie yes. it is a matter of some frustration"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:36Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"wondering if "Death Acceleration" is a good prejorative for MAiD. Good interview with Dr. Lydia Dugdale about what happens now that New York has legalized physician-hastened death: https://t.co/ZdulFawOsN Good interview with Dr. Lydia Dugdale about what happens now that New York has legalized physician-hastened death: https://t.co/ZdulFawOsN"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:19Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"In india sterilization is often the choice of the doctor not the woman. And target family size often changes over the life course: sterilization precludes deciding to have more later on which is a big part of fertility in other countries In the US a huge share of 3rd+ kids have 5+ year spacing vs. prior birth https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022352760130130065 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022352760130130065"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:50Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"honestly one of the most cost effective things the West could do is just hire tons of mercenaries for Ukraine. the real problem for Ukraine really is manpower. ❗Around [----] Colombians are defending Ukraine on the front line the largest number among all foreign countries (according to BBC). https://t.co/zSrjSxQMpz ❗Around [----] Colombians are defending Ukraine on the front line the largest number among all foreign countries (according to BBC). https://t.co/zSrjSxQMpz"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:53Z 38.7K followers, 79.9K engagements
"woah. Thats real real real low for Chinese. Since Malaysia reported the birth statistics for Q4 [----] it is now possible to give some updated TFRs for the whole of [----] (2024 in brackets) Malaysia [----] (1.55) Bumiputera [----] (1.85) Chinese [----] (0.89) Indians [----] (1.11) Since Malaysia reported the birth statistics for Q4 [----] it is now possible to give some updated TFRs for the whole of [----] (2024 in brackets) Malaysia [----] (1.55) Bumiputera [----] (1.85) Chinese [----] (0.89) Indians [----] (1.11)"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:17Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Scholars_Stage This is an error since TFR is not a measure of revealed preference either"
X Link 2026-02-16T01:27Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"There's no tension between "cultural pronatalism" and "fiscal pronatalism": The cultural pronatalists need cash to implement their values A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture. "Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families" in the Baltics. This could explain why many pronatal policies have not boosted fertility more. 🧵. https://t.co/0Pyzlbgc9f A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture. "Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in"
X Link 2026-02-16T15:06Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"This is phrased kinda provocatively but I will say I really despise truly loathe and detest the whats in marriage for a man Take that treats supporting dependents as this terrible burden Few things make me prouder make me more certain of my actual social dominance than the fact that my labor supports my wife supports my four children contributes substantially to the support of my church and other charities and in fact also creates additional annual shareholder returns for my company equal to several more workers wages. Productivity is a flex men who arent demonstrating their productivity"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:49Z 38.7K followers, 59.8K engagements
"@UAL_Fan You may not like it but this is what peak performance lookslike"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:55Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Clearly including Mayotte destroyed france France 1965-2025 https://t.co/9wmXHB5toZ France 1965-2025 https://t.co/9wmXHB5toZ"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:52Z 38.7K followers, 13.3K engagements
"they can't keep it up. as we now know russia's war is literally only feasible because China is paying for it. time to start sanctioning China. Russia has been spending far more on its military than it has reported Germanys foreign intelligence agency says. https://t.co/obBMLyAVoP Russia has been spending far more on its military than it has reported Germanys foreign intelligence agency says. https://t.co/obBMLyAVoP"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:03Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"So based on all of this whats the optimal age to do the shingles vaccine And another new study on the Shingles vaccine with 50% reduction of dementia Alzheimer's (not a natural experiment) https://t.co/NChNtuaROa And another new study on the Shingles vaccine with 50% reduction of dementia Alzheimer's (not a natural experiment) https://t.co/NChNtuaROa"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:31Z 38.7K followers, 52.1K engagements
"THE TAX THEORY OF EVERYTHING"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:22Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"New Orleans UPDATE: In addition to El Paso Air Space has also been shutdown around Santa Teresa New Mexico for [--] days & New Orleans for [--] days citing National Security. Congress was NOT notified before hand and two members of Congress tell me they are learning of this in realtime. UPDATE: In addition to El Paso Air Space has also been shutdown around Santa Teresa New Mexico for [--] days & New Orleans for [--] days citing National Security. Congress was NOT notified before hand and two members of Congress tell me they are learning of this in realtime"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:39Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Yeah I think @tylercowen s model here is just plainly wrong. But Ill be debunking the Spears/Geruso argument on Romania he shared before I get to his bigger argument. @tylercowen's model of falling fertility is appealing in its simplicity (women choose small families) but ignores @_alice_evans' evidence that couple formation is down and @lymanstoneky's evidence that couples have fewer children than stated preference https://t.co/DyGwogNhdu @tylercowen's model of falling fertility is appealing in its simplicity (women choose small families) but ignores @_alice_evans' evidence that couple"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:19Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Well look the sleep change is pretty small Parents get MORE sleep earlier in the evening but wake up earlier. The big change really is screen time and work. As a new parent I spend a lot of time changing diapers and feeding the baby. [--] months ago I wasn't doing any of this. I felt busy then too so where did all this childcare time come from I analyzed the Census Bureau's American Time Use Survey to find out how most parents do https://t.co/1bHxjRCijw As a new parent I spend a lot of time changing diapers and feeding the baby. [--] months ago I wasn't doing any of this. I felt busy then too so"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:01Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Today I take issue with Dean Spears/@MikeGeruso 's argument (as shared by @tylercowen ) that Romania's coercive pronatalism failed. Ceauescu's Decree [---] was brutal and inhumane-- but continuing to pretend it didn't work is an obvious error. https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/coercive-pronatalism-worked-and-was https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/coercive-pronatalism-worked-and-was"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:31Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"don't look now but ukraine is actually retaking some modest amount of territory Ukrainian forces have liberated the town of Stepove and are advancing on. Ukrainian forces have liberated the town of Stepove and are advancing on"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:31Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"really a remarkable map on both sides It's been the coldest winter in more than two decades for swaths of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In New York you'd have to go back to the mid-1990s to find a colder one. Some younger people would be experiencing the coldest winter of their lives so far. https://t.co/bXem4N0bVH It's been the coldest winter in more than two decades for swaths of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In New York you'd have to go back to the mid-1990s to find a colder one. Some younger people would be experiencing the coldest winter of their lives so far. https://t.co/bXem4N0bVH"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:14Z 38.7K followers, 22.5K engagements
"The case of an OpenClaw bot lowkey trying to blackmail a human stuff like this Ive bumped into Opus [---] clearly just making stuff up still. This doesnt mean AI isnt useful. Humans make errors too. Butwe have a superfast super powerful being control of all our business processes doesnt sound smart if that being is only kinda-sorta aligned. And its important to realize hallucinations are alignment issues. The AIs behavior there is what in humans we would call bullshitting and its a behavior most of us recognize as not just fact-wrong but moral-wrong"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:54Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@TPCarney Hopefully not Celsius"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:23Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@ISANobody_ I dont think we know what the final cost effectiveness of AI will be though since none of the companies are close to profitability. Uber prices in [----] were very different than now"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:02Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@annastansbury I rather doubt a manager at any talent level can supervise an infinite number of AI subordinates"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:50Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Regardless of what the biological fecundability data shows in the real world of actual decisions a woman's odds of ever having a baby become worse than a coin flip around age 31. Women who "reached [--] w/o starting a family had only a 52% chance of having children. Cross that threshold without children and your odds of having children fall closer to almost one-in-two." @compactmag https://t.co/Cn557QLJ0O Women who "reached [--] w/o starting a family had only a 52% chance of having children. Cross that threshold without children and your odds of having children fall closer to almost"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:20Z 38.7K followers, 210.6K engagements
"The theory that AI replaces these workers is strange because AI empirically doesnt actually host the productivity of top performing workers by very much. Giving your top engineer AI doesnt do as much as giving [---] junior engineers AI"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:33Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"checks fertility rates South Korea is an industrial powerhouse. Second only to China in most ways. In an age where we worry about China's rise SK is one of the most important allies we can have and one we should grow closer to. South Korea is an industrial powerhouse. Second only to China in most ways. In an age where we worry about China's rise SK is one of the most important allies we can have and one we should grow closer to"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:10Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@BirthGauge Ehhhhh my wife taught in a Chinese school in Malaysia and a Chinese school in Hong Kong. Same-same"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:17Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Correct it's not money alone but without the money the birth changes you highlight wouldn't have happened. Religious communities are the primary beneficiaries of things like a bigger Child Tax Credit to support births and these programs do work to the extent that familistic communities exist to leverage them https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023442650175529329 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023442650175529329"
X Link 2026-02-16T17:01Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
"continued acceleration in young women living with their parents"
X Link 2026-01-13T23:19Z 38.7K followers, 306.6K engagements
"Genuine humanitarian catastrophe. Modernas CEO announced the company will no longer invest in new Phase [--] vaccine trials for infectious diseases: You cannot make a return on investment if you dont have access to the U.S. market. Vaccines for Epstein-Barr virus herpes and shingles have been shelved. Modernas CEO announced the company will no longer invest in new Phase [--] vaccine trials for infectious diseases: You cannot make a return on investment if you dont have access to the U.S. market. Vaccines for Epstein-Barr virus herpes and shingles have been shelved"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:02Z 38.7K followers, 78.9K engagements
"People are more open about it and older childbearing makes it a more common experience but age-controlled rates have not risen. Is it just me or has stuff like miscarriages and infertility skyrocketted incredibly in the last generation Like my parents never talked about it nor my grandparents. My mom miscarried my little brother but that was abnormal and treated as abnormal. Is it just me or has stuff like miscarriages and infertility skyrocketted incredibly in the last generation Like my parents never talked about it nor my grandparents. My mom miscarried my little brother but that was"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:12Z 38.7K followers, 18.3K engagements
"in fairness "four-score and 12" would have been a common way of saying it in english in the past Being Danish means pronouncing [--] as: tooghalvfems https://t.co/dbuM5mrLfH Being Danish means pronouncing [--] as: tooghalvfems https://t.co/dbuM5mrLfH"
X Link 2026-02-16T15:16Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I do think a lot of people have so deeply internalized the "delay" story they just genuinely do not realize that first birth rates at ages 30+ are stable or falling. We are actually not seeing a rise in older first birth rates as delay-theories would suggest Yes more children are being born to women over [--]. But at the same time way more women are childless in their 30s. As a fraction of all childless women first births are going down. That's true even among women in their early 30s. Late 30s first birth rates are lower than https://t.co/WM84h4uBFL Yes more children are being born to women"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:07Z 38.7K followers, 53.8K engagements
"One reason I dont think AI will wipe out human employment is the AI will actually have a lot of the same vices humans have. AI is not like standard software where inputs create reliable outputs sometimes the AI just lies to you AI wiLL RePlAcE eVeRy WhItE cOllAr JoB https://t.co/rZEZKJKJUX AI wiLL RePlAcE eVeRy WhItE cOllAr JoB https://t.co/rZEZKJKJUX"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:52Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Genuinely its worth remembering a disproportionate share of casualties are convicts ethnic minorities and other varieties of social undesirables. Muscovites arent paying the price. i do not understand the structure and nature of public opinion in russia i do not understand the structure and nature of public opinion in russia"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:34Z 38.7K followers, 29.2K engagements
"KY doing our part Fertility Rate Decline By State From [----] to [----] Do you think this is an issue https://t.co/EPYsZul8mJ https://t.co/a7R4cGUzvL Fertility Rate Decline By State From [----] to [----] Do you think this is an issue https://t.co/EPYsZul8mJ https://t.co/a7R4cGUzvL"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:20Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"See this is weird to me: AI compresses the productivity distribution It makes meh workers pretty good It should increase demand for those workers @KrishnaRam4592 interesting given they've laid off people recently. I think the is what size class do they recruit in [--] months. McKinsey is first line of telling clients how to use AI to improve efficiencies in those outside businesses. Will be interesting to see if they can do it themselves. @KrishnaRam4592 interesting given they've laid off people recently. I think the is what size class do they recruit in [--] months. McKinsey is first line of"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:32Z 38.7K followers, 23.2K engagements
""drones are replacing riflemen" which is why 1.5-2 million ukrainian and russian soldiers are just chillin' around the frontlines in ukraine"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:18Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"it really is amazing that Europe's response has not been bigger. they are doing stuff of course but the argument for at least a year or two of 10% GDP spend to support scaling up is extremely compelling My gravest takeaways from Zelenskys speech is that the richest nations in the world with the biggest common market are not capable & willing to produce missiles and air-defence systems at scale after four years of the most brutal war on the old continent since the end of WW2. My gravest takeaways from Zelenskys speech is that the richest nations in the world with the biggest common market are"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:20Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I think simply as a math problem both Ukraine and Russia can keep this up for like a decade. Thats not what will cause the war to end. The fact Ukraine is making real ground gains right now pretty clearly shows that if and when Ukraine has actual technical dominance they can move the line. Western officials believe that its probable that Russia can sustain its combat operations in Ukraine throughout [----] as a result of its recruitment campaigns industrial production and support from other nations like China. https://t.co/bEORSYEWB0 https://t.co/ZjQFz8rmm1 Western officials believe that its"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:52Z 38.7K followers, 22.5K engagements
"Inability to see how prediction markets can be used to basically purchase hits is pretty wild If a prediction market tells us that this launch is likely to result in an explosion thats obviously important information that should motivate decision makers to cancel the launch. We shouldnt lose life-saving information because some outside observers find it gross. If a prediction market tells us that this launch is likely to result in an explosion thats obviously important information that should motivate decision makers to cancel the launch. We shouldnt lose life-saving information because some"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:17Z 38.7K followers, 13.1K engagements
"Its a distributed mechanism for murder for hire 🤷♂🤷♂🤷♂🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:17Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"you can actually bring them with you once they are [--] weeks and tbh equally easy at [--] weeks and [--] years very tricky at [--] months tho "I don't want to rush into kids I want to have fun and travel first" little known fact once the kids are [--] you can actually bring them with you "I don't want to rush into kids I want to have fun and travel first" little known fact once the kids are [--] you can actually bring them with you"
X Link 2026-02-16T16:47Z 38.7K followers, 57K engagements
"My full reflections on the visit to the UAE are here: https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline https://lymanstone.substack.com/p/notes-on-arab-fertility-decline"
X Link 2026-02-16T17:13Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I liked this talk because it highlighted where pronatalism actually currently stands (contra arguments of e.g. @PTBwrites / @IvanaDGreco )-- the actual decisionmakers sitting on stage saying "Government should boost fertility" are motivated by celebration of family life and concerns about fertility undershooting desires their not Elon-disciples. In the real world offline pronatalism is not like the reply-guys. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023449634614513890 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023449634614513890"
X Link 2026-02-16T17:29Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements
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